TexansPhan
Footballguy
Start KC at CHI or Start DEN vs. DET
Everywhere I look it says Denver should be started by a landslide but looking at the numbers it looks like KC is the better D with the better matchup. FANTASYPROS is at 93% start DEN and FOOTBALLGUYS projects DEN to score over 1.7 more points. What am I missing or do the experts have it wrong?
KC has more sacks, more ints, and more forced fumbles and outscores DEN over 25% on average each week (KC avgs 7.2 ppg and DEN 5.2 ppg). KC is playing a team, CHI(22nd most points given up), that gives up more points to defenses than DET(20th most points given up) on average. I also worry about Denver's offense being anemic with a rookie QB and potential TOs causing their D to be put in bad positions or on the field for long periods of time. Maybe the diff is playing at home vs on the road? Right now CHI is a 8pm game and could see snow that day and be in the mid 30s, whereas, Den is projected to be sunny and mid 50s. KC is coming off a dominant D performance in similar weather. I would think KC would be the more motivated group since they are still playing for something, as well. Maybe the experts are looking at Vegas over/unders and the KC game having a 8 point higher number?
Please let me know if I am crazy by thinking KC is the much better start and I am missing something or validate my analysis so I can confidently move forward. This is my super bowl and want to get it right.
Everywhere I look it says Denver should be started by a landslide but looking at the numbers it looks like KC is the better D with the better matchup. FANTASYPROS is at 93% start DEN and FOOTBALLGUYS projects DEN to score over 1.7 more points. What am I missing or do the experts have it wrong?
KC has more sacks, more ints, and more forced fumbles and outscores DEN over 25% on average each week (KC avgs 7.2 ppg and DEN 5.2 ppg). KC is playing a team, CHI(22nd most points given up), that gives up more points to defenses than DET(20th most points given up) on average. I also worry about Denver's offense being anemic with a rookie QB and potential TOs causing their D to be put in bad positions or on the field for long periods of time. Maybe the diff is playing at home vs on the road? Right now CHI is a 8pm game and could see snow that day and be in the mid 30s, whereas, Den is projected to be sunny and mid 50s. KC is coming off a dominant D performance in similar weather. I would think KC would be the more motivated group since they are still playing for something, as well. Maybe the experts are looking at Vegas over/unders and the KC game having a 8 point higher number?
Please let me know if I am crazy by thinking KC is the much better start and I am missing something or validate my analysis so I can confidently move forward. This is my super bowl and want to get it right.
