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2019 Post Season Subscriber Contest (1 Viewer)

Birdie048 said:
Any > 1 would work....  where there has to be something spent on Wild Card games.  But to actually make it competetive, I think >35 pts would be a good number.  This makes it a balance that we all have to obtain. 
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The reason I disagree with a hard cut is because people will spend the bare minimum for week 1, and the rest on their SB hopefuls.  FYI - in the last 7 years, all 14 teams to make it to the SB had a 1st round bye.  While spending the bare to advance is the best current strategy for normal years, by knowing the exact cut going in, you can select exactly what you need.  For example, if the cut is 1 point, I will select the cheapest kicker, and still have around $245 to stack 2 teams (if my 2 SB teams are the bye teams).  And if one of my teams plays in week 1, I can spend my entire budget on 2 teams.

With a 50% cut every week, you could have 1000 or 1,000,000 entries, and the cut lines would be similar.

 
Birdie048 said:
IMPRESSIVE!  All but $25 spent on KC/SF on all teams (Ingram the only flier). 

Distintinctions  -->   3 of 4 with Mercole Hardman, 2 with Sammy Watkins but key differences are

101334   -->  Darwin Thompson & Kyle Juszcyk unique 

101860  -->  SF Defense unique 

101493  -->  only team missing Raheem Mostert (ouch... the Ingram move might make the difference here)

102475  -->  Tevin Coleman unique (if he returns?) 
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Thanks for the breakdown.

 
TheWinz said:
The reason I disagree with a hard cut is because people will spend the bare minimum for week 1, and the rest on their SB hopefuls.  FYI - in the last 7 years, all 14 teams to make it to the SB had a 1st round bye.  While spending the bare to advance is the best current strategy for normal years, by knowing the exact cut going in, you can select exactly what you need.  For example, if the cut is 1 point, I will select the cheapest kicker, and still have around $245 to stack 2 teams (if my 2 SB teams are the bye teams).  And if one of my teams plays in week 1, I can spend my entire budget on 2 teams.

With a 50% cut every week, you could have 1000 or 1,000,000 entries, and the cut lines would be similar.
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Yeah, if anyone is listening, a 50% cut (or some %) absolutely makes the most sense as opposed to some arbitrary number. For lots of reasons.

 
of the 4 people listed above...from a dope's perspective:

After stripping out the players that are on all the teams (mahomes, damien, mccoy, tyreek, kelce, butker, kc-defense, jimmy g, deebo, emanuel, kittle) it comes down to these differences:

101334 - darwin, mecole, mostert, juscyzk, gould (5) - this team has the most players that arent on all teams. Juscyzk is the one who worries me the most as i could see his scoring 2 GL td's through a reception or a FB Blast. Also, Darwin thompson could be the super bowl mostert...or take a swing pass to the house. 

101493 - sammy and gould (2) with only 2 unique this is gonna be tough for this player.

101860 - mecole, mostert, gould, 49ers D (4) This player is the only one with the Niners D and that could be the difference. 

102475 - mecole, sammy, mostert, tevin  (4) - My team. If Tevin's MRI comes back in a positive way, this works well for me as i'm the only one with Tevin. A big game by Sammy Watkins is prolly whats needed by me, as long as mecole, and mostert and coleman can outscore robbie gould.

 
Abrantes said:
Ugh. Wasn't aware of the whole "no cuts in week one" thing this year. Made the cut this week and was plenty happy about my 7 Chiefs players, but looks like I have no chance at all if people were able to build 100% KC/SF squads. Oh well.
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Nobody was aware before the contest started (although some people had a hunch there would be a lower number of entries).  IIRC, fewer than 10 entries has zero players from the wild card round, so it wasn't some wide-spread thing.  

 
Going in to the Superbowl with Mahomes, Hill, Watkins, Kelce and Jimmy G, Sanders, Samuel, Kittle.  I know I have no shot of winning, but might have an outside chance to get $30.  I am not going to go through all the entries and see how mine stack up.  I would need KC to have a similar outcome with Hill/Watkins blowing up like they did this week to finish in the money.  I have been doing this contest for years and this is the first year I was able to predict the Superbowl teams.  A unique year with low entries and with teams absolutely loaded for the big game, but not worth getting upset about.  The prizes are nice, but nothing to get worked up over.  I have been enjoying the contributions of this thread the past 3 weeks. 

 
This was by far my best showing ever.  I would have breezed by every round in a typical year (I think I was top 500 every round and in the top 100 for this round.  I have 5 KC and 4 SF with both QB's and both TE's and Mostert and Damian Williams.  I really thought I had a good shot but to no avail with the no wild card round teams left.  Sucks.

 
TheWinz said:
The reason I disagree with a hard cut is because people will spend the bare minimum for week 1, and the rest on their SB hopefuls.  FYI - in the last 7 years, all 14 teams to make it to the SB had a 1st round bye.  While spending the bare to advance is the best current strategy for normal years, by knowing the exact cut going in, you can select exactly what you need.  For example, if the cut is 1 point, I will select the cheapest kicker, and still have around $245 to stack 2 teams (if my 2 SB teams are the bye teams).  And if one of my teams plays in week 1, I can spend my entire budget on 2 teams.

With a 50% cut every week, you could have 1000 or 1,000,000 entries, and the cut lines would be similar.
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Valid points.  Having a % Cut Week 1 regardless of score is an excellent design.  It makes you score each week to remain (as the regular season contest).  I like it! 

 
Dope said:
of the 4 people listed above...from a dope's perspective:

After stripping out the players that are on all the teams (mahomes, damien, mccoy, tyreek, kelce, butker, kc-defense, jimmy g, deebo, emanuel, kittle) it comes down to these differences:

101334 - darwin, mecole, mostert, juscyzk, gould (5) - this team has the most players that arent on all teams. Juscyzk is the one who worries me the most as i could see his scoring 2 GL td's through a reception or a FB Blast. Also, Darwin thompson could be the super bowl mostert...or take a swing pass to the house. 

101493 - sammy and gould (2) with only 2 unique this is gonna be tough for this player.

101860 - mecole, mostert, gould, 49ers D (4) This player is the only one with the Niners D and that could be the difference. 

102475 - mecole, sammy, mostert, tevin  (4) - My team. If Tevin's MRI comes back in a positive way, this works well for me as i'm the only one with Tevin. A big game by Sammy Watkins is prolly whats needed by me, as long as mecole, and mostert and coleman can outscore robbie gould.
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It would have to be a good defensive battle, but the other 3 all have KC Def.... 

 
Birdie048 said:
It would have to be a good defensive battle, but the other 3 all have KC Def.... 
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Not necessarily  right? say those 4 teams are the only ones in contention, it's going to be pretty tight. A pick-6 or a strip sack fumble return can absolutely determine the winner.

 
TheWinz said:
A most excellent and honest answer.  To not come in here playing it off by saying you actually knew the rules and were taking a risk makes you my hero.  You, Sir, are now the team I am rooting for.
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so this is what happened...

I saw that there was a playoff subscriber contest and thought it was going to be a mirror image of the regular season subscriber contest...and since ive been playing that for about 10 years now, i thought week 1 would be a "zero cut" week like week 1 of the regular season.

Luckily I got that right.

What I didnt read in the rules was that for the 1st 3 weeks, it was only the top 2 scorers from each team are eligible. I knew i was getting a zero in week 1, but when i saw that only 4 of my players had scores after week 2 i was like WTF? Then I read the rules and figured i was S.O.L. To my surprise i Advanced...and advanced again.

If I HAD read the rules, there is NO WAY i would have only had players from 2 teams. I would have added other players so I could advance. But I didnt read them and now i have a decent shot of winning (if tevin coleman is healthy i like my chances A LOT)

So, luckily I got the rules WRONG. Otherwise...no way im a favorite.

Recap

Lucky = Picking SF and KC in the Super Bowl

Lucky = A zero cut week 1

Lucky = Misreading the rules and missing the "only top 2 players per NFL team score points" rule. Otherwise...totally would have had Ravens and Packers. NOT reading the rules turned into an advantage for me. Redonkulous lololol

So there ya have it. :)

 
Birdie048 said:
Valid points.  Having a % Cut Week 1 regardless of score is an excellent design.  It makes you score each week to remain (as the regular season contest).  I like it! 
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The more I think about this the more I like the percentage cut - but for each week, not just week #1.  For example, each week the field could be cut by 50%.  Or, the cuts could be 25% of total entries in WC round, 50% of total entries in Divisional round, and 75% of total in Championship round leaving the final 25% for the Super Bowl.

 
First time I have ever been alive for SB round.  That has more to do with entries dropping from 6700 to 3300 or whatever it was this year than anything else.  I would have been out in the 1st round like last year had we had 6700 again.  I wasted about $58 in entry fees on WC players they didn't do much but since I only had to beat 0 I moved on.  The 2nd round I got lucky because Mahomes and Kelce went nuts to keep me alive.  Can't say I have much chance to win because of the wasted $58 on 4 Buf/Phil that I needed to use on KC/SF players but the hardest part is just getting the right 2 teams in the SB where you maxed out your players while staying alive.  At least I can say I made it finally.

 
Steeler said:
The more I think about this the more I like the percentage cut - but for each week, not just week #1.  For example, each week the field could be cut by 50%.  Or, the cuts could be 25% of total entries in WC round, 50% of total entries in Divisional round, and 75% of total in Championship round leaving the final 25% for the Super Bowl.
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The weekly percentage cuts could vary wildly from year to year.  This would make for a totally different strategy every year.  For example, one year the cuts could be 75%, 50%, then 25%.  The next year it could be 25%, 50% 75%.  The next it could be 25%, 25%, 50%.  It doesn't matter how many make it to the final week, does it?  The only thing that does matter is there has to be some sort of cut every week.

And for real fun, one random year, move the decimal point for FG's.  Imagine getting 79 points for 2 FG's.  😮

 
TheWinz said:
And for real fun, one random year, move the decimal point for FG's.  Imagine getting 79 points for 2 FG's.  😮
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First off, what are you doing drinking at 4 AM?   :banned:  To make it a real challenge, make the FG more valuable only for Week 1 (Wild Card Games) & SB!  

If we go back to the % Cut, we can start with the assumption of >10,000 entries.  And make a 50% cut each week would still leave 1250 entries for the SB.  This is closer to the Regular Season contest.

 
This is exciting. I have a real shot at top 5 I think, mostly due to the low entries. I’ve done this contest for maybe 7 years and it’s the least amount of thought I’ve ever put into it lol.

I’m 102932.

 
OK, I know I can't win, but give me your honest opinion about placing for a prize.

Mahomes, McCoy, Watkins, Hardman, Kelce, Butker, KC D/ST

Garoppolo, Mostert, Deebo, Kittle, Gould, SF D/ST

Notably missing Tyreek and Damian Williams and potentially Coleman or Jusczek.

 
Titans_fan said:
OK, I know I can't win, but give me your honest opinion about placing for a prize.

Mahomes, McCoy, Watkins, Hardman, Kelce, Butker, KC D/ST

Garoppolo, Mostert, Deebo, Kittle, Gould, SF D/ST

Notably missing Tyreek and Damian Williams and potentially Coleman or Jusczek.
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Well I am in a similar boat.  I have:

Mahomes, Williams, McCoy, Demarcus Robinson, Kelce

Garopplo, Mostert, Bourne, Kittle

I need huge days out of Demarcus Robinson and Kendrick Bourne...….hahahaha

 
Gally said:
Well I am in a similar boat.  I have:

Mahomes, Williams, McCoy, Demarcus Robinson, Kelce

Garopplo, Mostert, Bourne, Kittle

I need huge days out of Demarcus Robinson and Kendrick Bourne...….hahahaha
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I need Damian Williams to fumble on his first carry and SF return it for a TD.  Then Reid turn to McCoy for the rest of the game.  I also need Tyreek to pull a hammy leading into the game (nothing major, just enough to miss the game).

I also need Coleman to not get healthy and another game like the NFC Championship Game from SF.

I don't think that's asking too much...

 
radiohead417 said:
This is exciting. I have a real shot at top 5 I think, mostly due to the low entries. I’ve done this contest for maybe 7 years and it’s the least amount of thought I’ve ever put into it lol.

I’m 102932.
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Congrats! You need for SF to jump out to a lead so that the KC Running backs are minimized. Not going to look at all the rosters to see if you are blocked, but nice having 12 scores, six from each squad.

 
I think people need to take a look at the calcomatic breakdown before they talk about their "good" chances with teams of 8 or 9 players, lol...

There's some crazy number of teams with 9+ super bowl players...something like 100...

Heck, if I'm not mistaken, the fewest is 6...

 
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Sorry if this was already asked but given WC weekend scores in the past hovering in the 70s, any idea how many of remaining teams would be wiped out if there was a cut line?

 
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kylechoffman said:
Sorry if this was already asked but given WC weekend scores in the past hovering in the 70s, any idea how many of remaining teams would be wiped out if there was a cut line?
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Basically, everyone that has a shot at money would be gone.  I will spend some time after all is over, hunting for the top teams that scored at least 50.

 
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@kylechoffman - here you go...

There are 27 teams with at least 11 players combined.  If we use the lowest week 1 cut there has ever been, which was 46...

16 players - 1 team - Eliminated
15 players - 2 teams - Eliminated
14 players - 2 teams - Eliminated
13 players - 3 teams - Eliminated
12 players - 9 teams - 2 live teams (spent $63 and $36 week 1 dollars)
11 players - 10 teams - 4 live teams (spent $53, $73, $69, and $69 week 1 dollars)

The 6 teams that would've made the minimum cut don't really have a chance to win any prizes, since this contest only awards the top 7 finishers.  Maybe one of them can sneak in, fingers crossed, but I didn't check to see if the other 21 teams have them completely covered.

 
TheWinz said:
@kylechoffman - here you go...

There are 27 teams with at least 11 players combined.  If we use the lowest week 1 cut there has ever been, which was 46...

16 players - 1 team - Eliminated
15 players - 2 teams - Eliminated
14 players - 2 teams - Eliminated
13 players - 3 teams - Eliminated
12 players - 9 teams - 2 live teams (spent $63 and $36 week 1 dollars)
11 players - 10 teams - 4 live teams (spent $53, $73, $69, and $69 week 1 dollars)

The 6 teams that would've made the minimum cut don't really have a chance to win any prizes, since this contest only awards the top 7 finishers.  Maybe one of them can sneak in, fingers crossed, but I didn't check to see if the other 21 teams have them completely covered.
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I'm one of the 13-player teams that would have been eliminated, but not for lack of trying.

I had $45 in players who played in week one and only scored 31.2.  A.J Brown barely registered a blip and Arcega-Whiteside had 0.

I tried to find the two teams I thought had the best shot at the SB which I could get 11+ players on while still having skin in the game after week 1 and that ending up being KC-SF.

I think (hope?) we see a slight modification next season to at least generate a cut that requires at least a positive score to advance in week 1.  I get it's modeled after the regular season contest, but with only 4 weeks versus 13 (to advance), the difference in no week-one cut is immense.

 
Titans_fan said:
I'm one of the 13-player teams that would have been eliminated, but not for lack of trying.

I had $45 in players who played in week one and only scored 31.2.  A.J Brown barely registered a blip and Arcega-Whiteside had 0.

I tried to find the two teams I thought had the best shot at the SB which I could get 11+ players on while still having skin in the game after week 1 and that ending up being KC-SF.

I think (hope?) we see a slight modification next season to at least generate a cut that requires at least a positive score to advance in week 1.  I get it's modeled after the regular season contest, but with only 4 weeks versus 13 (to advance), the difference in no week-one cut is immense.
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Not to mention the teams likely to go to the Super Bowl aren't playing in week 1 of the playoffs...…..

 
Patrick Mahomes          $36      0.00  51.35  44.00 
Damien Williams          $16      0.00  25.80  17.40 
Demarcus Robinson         $4      0.00   1.40   5.10 
Travis Kelce             $22      0.00  46.40   7.50 
Harrison Butker          $12      0.00   9.00   5.00 
Kansas City Chiefs       $10      0.00   7.00   3.00 

Jimmy Garoppolo          $25      0.00  11.55   3.75 
Raheem Mostert           $14      0.00   5.80  47.60 
Emmanuel Sanders         $14      0.00   5.30   0.00 
George Kittle            $21      0.00   6.10   3.40 
Robbie Gould              $8      0.00   9.50  16.60 
San Francisco 49ers      $12      0.00  10.00   9.00 

Willie Snead              $7      0.00  11.60   0.00 

Tyler Lockett            $18     10.20  28.60   0.00 

Aaron Jones              $23      0.00  19.10  22.80 
Allen Lazard              $8      0.00   0.50   6.60 

hmmmmmmm........................

 
Stinkin Ref said:
Patrick Mahomes          $36      0.00  51.35  44.00 
Damien Williams          $16      0.00  25.80  17.40 
Demarcus Robinson         $4      0.00   1.40   5.10 
Travis Kelce             $22      0.00  46.40   7.50 
Harrison Butker          $12      0.00   9.00   5.00 
Kansas City Chiefs       $10      0.00   7.00   3.00 

Jimmy Garoppolo          $25      0.00  11.55   3.75 
Raheem Mostert           $14      0.00   5.80  47.60 
Emmanuel Sanders         $14      0.00   5.30   0.00 
George Kittle            $21      0.00   6.10   3.40 
Robbie Gould              $8      0.00   9.50  16.60 
San Francisco 49ers      $12      0.00  10.00   9.00 

Willie Snead              $7      0.00  11.60   0.00 

Tyler Lockett            $18     10.20  28.60   0.00 

Aaron Jones              $23      0.00  19.10  22.80 
Allen Lazard              $8      0.00   0.50   6.60 

hmmmmmmm........................
Click to expand...
Good luck. I think your covered for a big prize but might cash

 
1st place: $1,000 + lifetime Insider Pro subscription
2nd place: $250 + lifetime Insider Pro subscription
3rd place: $200 + lifetime subscription
4th place: $100 + 2020 Insider Pro subscription
5th place: $75 + 2020 Insider Pro subscription
6th place: $50 + 2020 Insider Pro subscription
7th - 12th place: $30

 
The team that scored the most last week is exactly why this contest is hard.  Why in the world would you pick this as your team ?  Yes your likely to make the SB round but you have 0% chance to win this contest.  People who do this muck things up for everyone else making it harder to advance that are actually putting in rosters that can win.

Wake The Demons

This entry is still alive.
 

Dawson Knox $5 2.90 0.00 0.00

Kenny Stills $10 8.60 17.00 0.00

Ryan Tannehill $14 9.70 23.70 23.55

Dion Lewis $4 2.10 0.00 1.10

Corey Davis $6 0.00 7.30 11.50

Mohamed Sanu $8 2.10 0.00 0.00

NKeal Harry $8 4.80 0.00 0.00

Patrick Mahomes $36 0.00 51.35 44.00

Damien Williams $16 0.00 25.80 17.40

Travis Kelce $22 0.00 46.40 7.50

Carson Wentz $17 0.15 0.00 0.00

Boston Scott $8 6.30 0.00 0.00

Miles Sanders $8 9.20 0.00 0.00

Aaron Rodgers $20 0.00 25.55 26.30

Aaron Jones $23 0.00 19.10 22.80

Davante Adams $21 0.00 36.00 22.80

Allen Lazard $8 0.00 0.50 6.60

Marquez Valdes-Scantling $2 0.00 1.80 0.00

Raheem Mostert $14 0.00 5.80 47.60

 
TheWinz said:
@kylechoffman - here you go...

There are 27 teams with at least 11 players combined.  If we use the lowest week 1 cut there has ever been, which was 46...

16 players - 1 team - Eliminated
15 players - 2 teams - Eliminated
14 players - 2 teams - Eliminated
13 players - 3 teams - Eliminated
12 players - 9 teams - 2 live teams (spent $63 and $36 week 1 dollars)
11 players - 10 teams - 4 live teams (spent $53, $73, $69, and $69 week 1 dollars)

The 6 teams that would've made the minimum cut don't really have a chance to win any prizes, since this contest only awards the top 7 finishers.  Maybe one of them can sneak in, fingers crossed, but I didn't check to see if the other 21 teams have them completely covered.
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Sounds like I would have had a great shot at this if there was many more entries and a decent 1st round cut.  I have 10 players left and  with  Derrich henry and Kelce/mahommes   I would have sailed through to the final while alot of these teams at the top would have been eliminated

 
Birdie048 said:
It would have to be a good defensive battle, but the other 3 all have KC Def.... 
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if i did the scores right...

101334 - 1st place - it was that jucyzk td. i knew it.

102475 - 2nd place behind winner by 3.0

101860 3rd place behind winner by 3.4

i think...ive been drinking since 2

 
Dope said:
if i did the scores right...

101334 - 1st place - it was that jucyzk td. i knew it.

102475 - 2nd place behind winner by 3.0

101860 3rd place behind winner by 3.4

i think...ive been drinking since 2
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Top 3 all with no week 1 players.  But hey, at least they picked the right teams.

 
You have to go to 17th place (!) in final standings to find a team that scored more than 60 points in Week 1 (https://subscribers.footballguys.com/playoffcontest/2019/101933.php) and likely would have advanced if entries had been as normal.

I correctly picked San Francisco with 8 players and captured a good majority of their scoring (http://subscribers.footballguys.com/playoffcontest/2019/100680.php) but didn't have money to invest in a 2nd team (whom, based upon other playoff contests I entered would have be KC) so as to advance in early rounds - 103, 147, 131. 

Reading the thread here and smh ??? 

 
TheWinz said:
Top 3 all with no week 1 players. 
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Is this true?  wow.  Talk about getting lucky (and rewarded?) by not fully reading all the rules.  Figuring this was talked about after week 1 and I missed it.  But couldn't they have had a numeric cut off just to prevent this from handicapping those that knew the rules?

Just 15 or so points would ensure week 1 survivors would be those that have at least a few players playing wild card week.  

 
there was a missing guy....1st place was zero WEEK 1

2nd was a guy with 2 week 1 players

3rd was me...zero week 1 players

 
Jayrok said:
Is this true?  wow.  Talk about getting lucky (and rewarded?) by not fully reading all the rules.  Figuring this was talked about after week 1 and I missed it.  But couldn't they have had a numeric cut off just to prevent this from handicapping those that knew the rules?

Just 15 or so points would ensure week 1 survivors would be those that have at least a few players playing wild card week.  
Click to expand...
The board consensus (and I apologize if you don't agree) is that FBG should move to a percentage cut each week versus a hard number.  Even a 10% cut in week one would require at least a score to advance.

That being said, this is the first time in quite a while we have had fewer than 3,000 entries (the week 1 cut).

 
  • Smile
Reactions: Ned
Titans_fan said:
The board consensus (and I apologize if you don't agree) is that FBG should move to a percentage cut each week versus a hard number.  Even a 10% cut in week one would require at least a score to advance.

That being said, this is the first time in quite a while we have had fewer than 3,000 entries (the week 1 cut).
Click to expand...
I agree with that and it would be fine.  

 
Wildcard week: trim to 4,000 teams (all advance if we have fewer entries)
Click to expand...
I retract my comment earlier about being lucky for not reading the rules.  I wonder how many took the chance that there would be less than 4000 entries vs how many didn't realize.  And is there a way to know how many entries there are before the entry deadline?  Imagine that would be a nice nugget to know.  

Either way, good on those that survived and placed.  Congrats to all who finished in the prize slots!  

 
Jayrok said:
I retract my comment earlier about being lucky for not reading the rules.  I wonder how many took the chance that there would be less than 4000 entries vs how many didn't realize.  And is there a way to know how many entries there are before the entry deadline?  Imagine that would be a nice nugget to know.  

Either way, good on those that survived and placed.  Congrats to all who finished in the prize slots!  
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No one, and I mean no one, could have predicted less than 4K entries.  Every single entry that chose no week 1 players either did not know the rules, or submitted their team as a joke.  Anyone coming in here bragging they took a chance is a liar.  I finished near 500th, and wouldn't have had a chance no matter what, so I'm not just whining here.

 
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