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2019 Post Season Subscriber Contest (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter TheWinz
- Start date
TheWinz
Footballguy
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Yeah - I mean, if you think the Saints (no secret they’re the only one without a BYE) are the super bowl representative from the NFC that’s sensible. If they lose to the vikes in round one, notsomuch.
As someone who doesn’t think the Saints represent the NFC in the SB, it makes the 1st round a lot more challenging. I think someone said it was 79 points last year?
could be more. That’s a lot.
rzrback77
Footballguy
Four out of five previous seasons winner had an average of five Patriots, secret sauce for the Championship!
TheWinz
Footballguy
OK, we have done alot of talking, but I will give in and post my submission, along with my reasoning...
QB - Drew Brees - NO - $38
QB - Patrick Mahomes - KC - $36
QB - Russell Wilson - SEA - $26
RB - Derrick Henry - TEN - $15
RB - Gus Edwards - BAL - $8
RB - Justice Hill - BAL - $4
WR - Michael Thomas - NO - $34
WR - Tyreek Hill - KC - $26
WR - Mecole Hardman - KC - $8
WR - Demarcus Robinson - KC - $4
WR - Marquez Valdes-Scantling - GB - $2
TE - Travis Kelce - KC - $22
TE - Darren Fells - HOU - $6
TE - Jimmy Graham - GB - $6
TE - Josh Hill - NO - $6
TE - Jordan Akins - HOU - $5
PK - Greg Joseph - TEN - $4
Week 1 - Need about 90 points minimum to feel safe, as that has been the highest week 1 score in the last 6 years (only went back to 2014). Brees/Thomas combo seems about 40. Wilson is without his top RB's, so I think he is going to put his team on his shoulders and get 30. Henry should have a good game vs NE, but added the TEN kicker in case of defensive battle. A combined 15 would be acceptable. Watson loves his TE's, and only used $11 to secure 2 of them. 15 points combined isn't asking too much.
Week 2 - This is the high scoring week. The cutline has been very consistent over the last 6 years (125, 126, 128, 138, 138, 145). Obviously, by looking at my roster, I am guessing the week 1 losers will be NE, BUF, MIN, and PHI, and I rostered none of them. If all goes right, I will go into week 2 with Brees/Thomas (TE Hill as a spare), Mahomes/Kelce (along with 3 WR's as spares, including Tyreek), Wilson from SEA, Henry/Joseph from TEN, Edwards/Hill from BAL (cheap options that will pay off if Ingram isn't 100%), MVS/Graham from GB (I am guessing they lose to NO, but want the week 2 points), and Fells/Akins from HOU.
Week 3 - There will only be 4 teams left playing, and my bracket has BAL, KC, NO, and SEA. The cut has been erratic over the last 6 years (59, 65, 74, 83, 102, 132). That's quite a difference, but I would feel safe with 100. Edwards/Hill from BAL, Wilson from SEA, and a bunch of KC/NO options would easily score 100 if they are still alive.
SB - I have $174 invested in a KC/NO showdown, with no RB's. If these 2 teams do make it, it should be a pass happy game.
Update - TE Akins questionable, may have to tweak a small bit.
QB - Drew Brees - NO - $38
QB - Patrick Mahomes - KC - $36
QB - Russell Wilson - SEA - $26
RB - Derrick Henry - TEN - $15
RB - Gus Edwards - BAL - $8
RB - Justice Hill - BAL - $4
WR - Michael Thomas - NO - $34
WR - Tyreek Hill - KC - $26
WR - Mecole Hardman - KC - $8
WR - Demarcus Robinson - KC - $4
WR - Marquez Valdes-Scantling - GB - $2
TE - Travis Kelce - KC - $22
TE - Darren Fells - HOU - $6
TE - Jimmy Graham - GB - $6
TE - Josh Hill - NO - $6
TE - Jordan Akins - HOU - $5
PK - Greg Joseph - TEN - $4
Week 1 - Need about 90 points minimum to feel safe, as that has been the highest week 1 score in the last 6 years (only went back to 2014). Brees/Thomas combo seems about 40. Wilson is without his top RB's, so I think he is going to put his team on his shoulders and get 30. Henry should have a good game vs NE, but added the TEN kicker in case of defensive battle. A combined 15 would be acceptable. Watson loves his TE's, and only used $11 to secure 2 of them. 15 points combined isn't asking too much.
Week 2 - This is the high scoring week. The cutline has been very consistent over the last 6 years (125, 126, 128, 138, 138, 145). Obviously, by looking at my roster, I am guessing the week 1 losers will be NE, BUF, MIN, and PHI, and I rostered none of them. If all goes right, I will go into week 2 with Brees/Thomas (TE Hill as a spare), Mahomes/Kelce (along with 3 WR's as spares, including Tyreek), Wilson from SEA, Henry/Joseph from TEN, Edwards/Hill from BAL (cheap options that will pay off if Ingram isn't 100%), MVS/Graham from GB (I am guessing they lose to NO, but want the week 2 points), and Fells/Akins from HOU.
Week 3 - There will only be 4 teams left playing, and my bracket has BAL, KC, NO, and SEA. The cut has been erratic over the last 6 years (59, 65, 74, 83, 102, 132). That's quite a difference, but I would feel safe with 100. Edwards/Hill from BAL, Wilson from SEA, and a bunch of KC/NO options would easily score 100 if they are still alive.
SB - I have $174 invested in a KC/NO showdown, with no RB's. If these 2 teams do make it, it should be a pass happy game.
Update - TE Akins questionable, may have to tweak a small bit.
Solomon Grundy
Footballguy
The two years where the winner rostered <10 Super Bowl players were both years where the losing team scored <11 points...
The takeaway: If the super bowl is low-scoring for one team, you can roster fewer players and win...
I think all the likely SB teams have less-than-elite defenses and elite offenses...
Conclusion: SB will be high scoring. You need 10+ players from the SB teams.
The contrary play is to pick a SB with one team that has an elite defense. I think there are three of them here: SF, TEN, and BUF.
So, I say you go either KC/SF, or BAL/SF, roster 6 SF and 2 BAL (Lamar and Ingram) or 6 BAL and 2 SF (Garops and Kittle) and hope the rest of your roster gets you out of weeks 1 and 2.
Solomon Grundy
Footballguy
I just can't do this year. Pricing makes it too difficult and I'm getting a headache. I'm going with this and let the chips fall where they may:
QB - Lamar Jackson - 40
QB - Drew Brees - 38
QB - Taysom Hill - 8
RB - Alvin Kamara - 29
RB - Mark Ingram II - 25
RB - Miles Sanders - 8
WR - Michael Thomas - 34
WR - Tre'Quan Smith - 9
WR - Allen Lazard - 8
WR - Dante Pettis - 2
TE - Jared Cook - 24
TE - Mark Andrews - 18
TE - Jonnu Smith - 7
QB - Lamar Jackson - 40
QB - Drew Brees - 38
QB - Taysom Hill - 8
RB - Alvin Kamara - 29
RB - Mark Ingram II - 25
RB - Miles Sanders - 8
WR - Michael Thomas - 34
WR - Tre'Quan Smith - 9
WR - Allen Lazard - 8
WR - Dante Pettis - 2
TE - Jared Cook - 24
TE - Mark Andrews - 18
TE - Jonnu Smith - 7
ConstruxBoy
Kate's Daddy
Yeah, my brain hurts too.
rustycolts
Footballguy
So I went with the teams that I thought would be there for week 2. So no Tenn, Buff,Vikes,or Eagles. Also think the 49ers and Packers are one and done so none of them. Trying to go with teams that advance only. So if all goes well I will have 8 playing first week 12 2nd and then 8 the 3rd with 10 in the S.B. First week will be tough with only one QB playing.
QB - Drew Brees - 38
QB - Patrick Mahomes II - 36
RB - Sony Michel - 12
RB - Carlos Hyde - 11
RB - LeSean McCoy - 10
WR - Marquise Brown - 17
WR - DK Metcalf - 15
WR - Ted Ginn Jr - 9
WR - Sammy Watkins - 9
WR - Tre'Quan Smith - 9
WR - Willie Snead IV - 7
WR - David Moore - 5
WR - Phillip Dorsett - 5
WR - Demarcus Robinson - 4
TE - Jared Cook - 24
TE - Travis Kelce - 22
TD - Kansas City Chiefs - 10
TD - Houston Texans - 7
Total value: 250
QB - Drew Brees - 38
QB - Patrick Mahomes II - 36
RB - Sony Michel - 12
RB - Carlos Hyde - 11
RB - LeSean McCoy - 10
WR - Marquise Brown - 17
WR - DK Metcalf - 15
WR - Ted Ginn Jr - 9
WR - Sammy Watkins - 9
WR - Tre'Quan Smith - 9
WR - Willie Snead IV - 7
WR - David Moore - 5
WR - Phillip Dorsett - 5
WR - Demarcus Robinson - 4
TE - Jared Cook - 24
TE - Travis Kelce - 22
TD - Kansas City Chiefs - 10
TD - Houston Texans - 7
Total value: 250
Solomon Grundy
Footballguy
For fun, I put together a team by allocating $$ based off each team's % chance to win the SB:
QB - Lamar Jackson - BAL - $40
QB - Aaron Rodgers - GB - $20
QB - Taysom Hill - NO - $8
RB - Damien Williams - KC - $16
RB - Raheem Mostert - SF - $14
RB - Rex Burkhead - NE - $9
RB - Gus Edwards - BAL - $8
RB - Alexander Mattison - MIN - $5
RB - Jordan Howard - PHI - $4
RB - Dion Lewis - TEN - $4
RB - Brandon Bolden - NE - $3
RB - Frank Gore - BUF - $3
WR - TreQuan Smith - NO - $9
WR - Mecole Hardman - KC - $8
WR - Allen Lazard - GB - $8
WR - David Moore - SEA - $5
WR - Miles Boykin - BAL - $4
WR - DeAndre Carter - HOU - $3
WR - J.J. Arcega-Whiteside - PHI - $3
WR - Dante Pettis - SF - $2
WR - Robert Foster - BUF - $2
TE - Travis Kelce - KC - $22
TE - George Kittle - SF - $21
TE - Mark Andrews - BAL - $18
TE - Josh Hill - NO - $6
TE - Matt LaCosse - NE - $4
I don't exactly hate this team...
and yes, I am punting K and DEF this year...
QB - Lamar Jackson - BAL - $40
QB - Aaron Rodgers - GB - $20
QB - Taysom Hill - NO - $8
RB - Damien Williams - KC - $16
RB - Raheem Mostert - SF - $14
RB - Rex Burkhead - NE - $9
RB - Gus Edwards - BAL - $8
RB - Alexander Mattison - MIN - $5
RB - Jordan Howard - PHI - $4
RB - Dion Lewis - TEN - $4
RB - Brandon Bolden - NE - $3
RB - Frank Gore - BUF - $3
WR - TreQuan Smith - NO - $9
WR - Mecole Hardman - KC - $8
WR - Allen Lazard - GB - $8
WR - David Moore - SEA - $5
WR - Miles Boykin - BAL - $4
WR - DeAndre Carter - HOU - $3
WR - J.J. Arcega-Whiteside - PHI - $3
WR - Dante Pettis - SF - $2
WR - Robert Foster - BUF - $2
TE - Travis Kelce - KC - $22
TE - George Kittle - SF - $21
TE - Mark Andrews - BAL - $18
TE - Josh Hill - NO - $6
TE - Matt LaCosse - NE - $4
I don't exactly hate this team...
and yes, I am punting K and DEF this year...
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apalmer
Footballguy
Yeah. Go with that. It hasn't happened before, but there's a first time for everything, right?
rockaction
Footballguy
Definitely hard.
ConstruxBoy
Kate's Daddy
Reportedrockaction said:
rockaction
Footballguy
Heh. Caught me.
I think I went some gut wrenchers that involve SEA and BUF, who I think gets wiped by Houston provided Will Fuller plays. I'm looking at my players right now and thinking I've got a good chance at really missing the first round. I think waking up at a cooler time tmrw might readjust my thoughts.
QuizGuy66
Footballguy
I think I am set.
I expect my line-up to be panned when I release it.
FWIW part of why the values are so rough is to make a true monopoly difficult - very hard to get a lock-out (which was more of a possibility in past years - I would have had one as I mentioned up thread if Baltimore and San Francisco met in XLVI instead of waiting for XLVII. Now - barring a major surprise Super Bowl team the last week should be a real fight - which is more fun anyway.
-QG
I expect my line-up to be panned when I release it.
FWIW part of why the values are so rough is to make a true monopoly difficult - very hard to get a lock-out (which was more of a possibility in past years - I would have had one as I mentioned up thread if Baltimore and San Francisco met in XLVI instead of waiting for XLVII. Now - barring a major surprise Super Bowl team the last week should be a real fight - which is more fun anyway.
-QG
barackdhouse
Footballguy
In my last sentence I said "perhaps not a mortal lock". I don't want to get into semantics but what I'm saying is that even if you're really not so sure about who you think gets to the SB you should make your best guess and invest in that. Surely one can go with at least a gut feeling that might earn them a better chance than picking 2 teams at random (not accounting for the inherent huge advantage that the 1 and 2 seeds hold).
QuizGuy66
Footballguy
My decision is not at random - it's just sorta incorporating a vig into the selections
-QG
barackdhouse
Footballguy
I think we're in agreement but misreading each other. No biggie.My decision is not at random - it's just sorta incorporating a vig into the selections
-QG
I just made my big 2 better. There isn't much question that my team is fragile in that there really isn't a contingency. I can imagine several entries that cruise through each round only to get crushed in the SB with few if any active players.
My latest iteration has players from each of the 4 WC teams I expect to win and 0 from those I expect to lose. 6 players. Not sure that will be enough but I was about to roll with only 5 for round 1. 10 players from my SB.
QuizGuy66
Footballguy
it's fun when you look at the entries that have won - so hard to get just above that minimum number. Some teams have won and had like 2 or 3 guys going the first weekend which is sorta nuts.
-QG
QuizGuy66
Footballguy
I think if the seeding were GB/NO/SEA/PHI/SF/MIN it woulda been even crazier.
I thought I blew it last year when I didn't get a last minute massive roster overhaul in in time - different teams where I had the Rams and Patriots picked. Was relieved that that entry only would have come in like 6th.
-QG
I thought I blew it last year when I didn't get a last minute massive roster overhaul in in time - different teams where I had the Rams and Patriots picked. Was relieved that that entry only would have come in like 6th.
-QG
TheWinz
Footballguy
I tried to get cute last year, and went all in on LAC/DAL. I picked all 4 WC games correctly, cruised through the first 2 weeks, and scored a goose egg in week 3.
ConstruxBoy
Kate's Daddy
Finally done with my craziest attempt ever here. Only 14 man roster. 6 going this week projected for 86 points. 9 players in the SB. YOLO.
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QuizGuy66
Footballguy
TheWinz
Footballguy
ConstruxBoy
Kate's Daddy
I mean, maybe it's my year, right?Based on your track record this year hard to take your decision to task
-QG
TheWinz
Footballguy
Ah yes, we are using the same, just checking. I am projected for 98.7 using 6 players also
rzrback77
Footballguy
I am hopeful that crazy is the way to go. I have a 12-man roster, 9 SB players and only five going this week. Yes, I have a wild card SB team. Don’t even want to check the projections.
QuizGuy66
Footballguy
The funny difference between this and the regular season contest is that there is a lack of those "dirt cheap guys everyone will roster" - the low-dollar guys on these entry forms are guys who typically get like 1 to 3 touches a game. And then you teams like the Patriots where seemingly any random guy can go off if Belichick finds a mismatch he likes. I'm happy with my lack of true garbage on my entry this time around - that seems to be a mistake I would always make. Too unpredictable - if any of those guys do anything it's usually because someone got hurt.
-QG
-QG
rockaction
Footballguy
I am hopeful that a game I think is not that close if Will Fuller and J.J. Watt play becomes a lot closer with their absence.
I've got four guys going this weekend for a projection of around sixty-two, but I think Lynch and Wilson are undervalued here. I know the cut off is eighty. I'm willing to roll with this to have Kittle and Andrews the rest of the way.
I've got four guys going this weekend for a projection of around sixty-two, but I think Lynch and Wilson are undervalued here. I know the cut off is eighty. I'm willing to roll with this to have Kittle and Andrews the rest of the way.
apalmer
Footballguy
Shocking!
Changed mine from what I had posted above to decrease (I hope) the Week 2 risk. I broke up two of my complimentary players from the same team to one from each team in the same game. Instead of 8 scores next week if I had the winning team (and only 6 if I was wrong), it makes me sure of having 7 scores. Not sure of the wisdom of guaranteeing I lose a player, but I'm viewing it as a pawn sacrifice.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Fuller sounds like a legitimate longshot to play.
someone posted the last year the cut off was something like 79. in my opinion, that’s the most challenging thing about this contest… Between the “best ball“ aspect of only two players per team scoring in the first three rounds and the fact that you need reasonably high scoring in those first couple of rounds, it makes it very challenging to put all your eggs in to buy week team baskets.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
TheWinz
Footballguy
That was me. Weekly cutoffs last year were 79, 126, 74, and the SB winner scored 105. He was the only person over 100
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
TheWinz
Footballguy
How did you know I am retired Air Force?Thank you for your service & dedication, sir.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Zegras11
Footballguy
I have 10 saints and ravens. And 8 others including Henry and Moesert. Seven players week 1. 9 players at least week 2
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Zegras11
Footballguy
I have a Min player. Probably one more than most.
Tenn/NE - 2
Hou/Buff - 0
Minn/No - 3
Sea/Phil - 2
---------------------
If Tenn wins
Tenn/Balt - 3
Hou or Buff/KC - 2
If Ne wins
NE/KC - 3
Hou of Buff/Balt - 2 . AFC is 5 no matter what.
If NO wins
NO/GB - 2
SF/one each from SEA/Phil - 2
If Minn wins
SF/MINN - 2
GB/Sea or Phil 1. NFC is 4 or 3, very likely 4. So 9 total.
-------------------------------------
No vs SF . - 3
KC vs Balt - 4. 7 there.
-----------------------------------
NO vs Balt - 10
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Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
lol - I think I have 1. Not positive. I’m not going to check because if I do I’m at risk of deleting my entire roster & starting all over again and I’m at work, so....yeah.
rockaction
Footballguy
And thus goes the nature of this tourney. Last year you couldn't buy weekly team baskets. You were picking players and the trick of this contest is to have the most standing at the end. I'm bucking trend this year and hoping that the contest gets back to its traditional mode of years prior where it wasn't so much players from each team -- obvious choices, that is -- at the sacrifice of being able to cover your opponents and run away at the end of it, provided you picked the teams correctly. (which is hard enough, thank you.)
But I'm not complaining. This strikes me as another cool competition to enter for at least today, where now a coach punting 4th and 2 from the opponents' forty-five won't anger me so much. I've got my fantasy team to look at !
