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First offensive play-what do you want? (1 Viewer)

First offensive play of the game. Which do you prefer?

  • Your team gets nine yards, leaving them with 2nd and 1.

    Votes: 28 34.1%
  • Your team gets ten yards. First and ten.

    Votes: 54 65.9%

  • Total voters
    82

pecorino

Footballguy
Is it better to get nine yards, leaving your team with 2nd and 1? Or would you prefer to get ten yards and a fresh set of downs?

 
Is this a trick question?
I don't think it is a trick question but I also don't think "the right answer" is at all obvious. Implicit in the poll is my belief that it is better to have nine yards with 2nd and 1 than it is to get ten yards. It's not really a "free down" but it is pretty close, and it allows the offense an opportunity to attack with a low-risk, high-reward play that they otherwise might be hesitant to run.

 
I don't think it is a trick question but I also don't think "the right answer" is at all obvious. Implicit in the poll is my belief that it is better to have nine yards with 2nd and 1 than it is to get ten yards. It's not really a "free down" but it is pretty close, and it allows the offense an opportunity to attack with a low-risk, high-reward play that they otherwise might be hesitant to run.
They can attack with a low risk high reward play on first and 10 as well. Teams get stuffed on third and 1 often enough that this is really not a choice at all. 

 
They can attack with a low risk high reward play on first and 10 as well. Teams get stuffed on third and 1 often enough that this is really not a choice at all. 
*Spinal Tap voice* But this one goes to second.

Seriously, it depends how much you valuate your team's expected win probability given each situation, which will be reflected in a host of factors. I don't think you can answer that question in a vacuum. 

 
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I don't think it is a trick question but I also don't think "the right answer" is at all obvious. Implicit in the poll is my belief that it is better to have nine yards with 2nd and 1 than it is to get ten yards. It's not really a "free down" but it is pretty close, and it allows the offense an opportunity to attack with a low-risk, high-reward play that they otherwise might be hesitant to run.
You're looking for high-risk here, I think, at least as measured against success rate of intended completion or result. High-risk can mean a host of things, but that's the one I'm going with. A deeper play will have a lower success rate, which likely means a pass down the field.

I'm thinking of success rate meaning that which is a successful play in terms of increasing wPA per result of said play.

 
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I’ve played in flag football leagues where first downs were at set yard lines. No kickoffs, the ball was spotted at the 15 with first downs being at the 20s and 40s. We would have the defense jump offsides on purpose to try to set the offense up with a first and 20 from the 20 rather than presumably get the easy first down plus extra yardage before attacking the 40. Not remotely the same thing but it reminded me of this! As for the question give me the 2nd and 1.

 
2 or 3 chances to make one or 3 or 4 chances to make ten?
To me, that sounds like a no-brainer. Average yards per play is probably something like six so the first option is practically a lock while the other is less certain. I’d rather have 2nd and 1 (probable conversion rate of 90%+) as opposed to 1st and ten with, what, a 50% conversion rate. The extra yard is immaterial. I want 2nd and 1.

 
They can attack with a low risk high reward play on first and 10 as well. Teams get stuffed on third and 1 often enough that this is really not a choice at all. 
When I said “low risk,” I meant that the cost of an incompletion is 3rd and 1. On first down, the cost is 2nd and ten.

 
That's where success rate comes in and makes this a strange thought exercise. It is the success of the play we're concerned about? Or the wPA? Because they might be different. 
I’m talking about the probability of winning the game. The thought experiment goes down more easily if the game is tied and it’s the first play of the fourth quarter, say, but I opted to give the cleanest scenario to start.

 
To me, that sounds like a no-brainer. Average yards per play is probably something like six so the first option is practically a lock while the other is less certain. I’d rather have 2nd and 1 (probable conversion rate of 90%+) as opposed to 1st and ten with, what, a 50% conversion rate. The extra yard is immaterial. I want 2nd and 1.
I see your view a little better now, but once you are successful you’re just dealing with 1st and 10 anyway.

 
I’m talking about the probability of winning the game. The thought experiment goes down more easily if the game is tied and it’s the first play of the fourth quarter, say, but I opted to give the cleanest scenario to start.
Ah, okay. I think we're a bit on the same page. I'm not an expert with stats analysis, but I've read Burke, Chris Brown, PFR, etc. casually for years.

My gut tells me give me the 2nd-and-1, but I don't know the cost of of down (or the value of a down) enough relative to the achievement, holding personnel and coaching style constant. Like an out in SABR baseball research. Just don't know enough, but can figure to start there, I think.  

 
Ah, okay. I think we're a bit on the same page. I'm not an expert with stats analysis, but I've read Burke, Chris Brown, PFR, etc. casually for years.

My gut tells me give me the 2nd-and-1, but I don't know the cost of of down (or the value of a down) enough relative to the achievement, holding personnel and coaching style constant. Like an out in SABR baseball research. Just don't know enough, but can figure to start there, I think.  
Ya, I’m just going on intuition without looking for analytics. But having that analysis would answer the question.

 
I see your view a little better now, but once you are successful you’re just dealing with 1st and 10 anyway.
True but further down the field. I guess I’m seeing so many pass interference calls that I want my team to throw more go patterns, but I hate the prospect of losing a down. Having the luxury of 2nd and 1 so that you can take that shot seems more valuable than that extra yard and a fresh set of downs.

 
Seeing as the goals in football are 

1. get first downs

2. score

i would always take the 1st down. Always. Zero exceptions. 1st & 10 is better than 2nd & 1. 

 
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I think a lot of it depends on where on the field you are.  If you're pinned on your own 10 yard line, I might just take the 1st down.  If you're somewhere around midfield (where you might go for it on 4th down), then I would take 2nd and 1 for sure.  You'd have 3 chances to gain 1 yard.

 
Seeing as the goals in football are 

1. get first downs

2. score

i would always take the 1st down. Always. Zero exceptions. 1st & 10 is better than 2nd & 1. 
What about with 2 minutes left in the game when you're up 3 points and trying to run out the clock?  It would be very advantageous in this scenario to have 2nd and 1 and force the team to burn an extra timeout or two.

Also what about if you're on the opponents 40 yard line (where you would go for it on 4th down anyways) and it's only inches to go?  You'd take 1st and 10 at their 40 instead of 2nd and an inch?

 
I think a lot of it depends on where on the field you are.  If you're pinned on your own 10 yard line, I might just take the 1st down.  If you're somewhere around midfield (where you might go for it on 4th down), then I would take 2nd and 1 for sure.  You'd have 3 chances to gain 1 yard.
First play of the game. 25 yard line. They was the original scenario.

 
What about with 2 minutes left in the game when you're up 3 points and trying to run out the clock?  It would be very advantageous in this scenario to have 2nd and 1 and force the team to burn an extra timeout or two.
So would 1st and 10. 

why would 2nd and 1 be any different in that scenario? 

Also what about if you're on the opponents 40 yard line (where you would go for it on 4th down anyways) and it's only inches to go?  You'd take 1st and 10 at their 40 instead of 2nd and an inch?
Of course. Because then I have 1st down and don’t have to try to get 1st down.

seems kind of obvious. I fail to see any advantage to 2nd and 1 or 2nd & inches in either of the scenarios you propose here. 

 
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Zero exceptions? Like not a single one?
Nope. I see no advantage of having 2nd down over 1st down. 

1st down & 10 = you have 3 downs to make another 1st down. And maybe 4, depending on the scenario. 

2nd down and 1, you’ve still got to make a 1st down. 

zero exceptions. Get the 1st down. In all the 2nd down scenarios presented, one is still trying to get the 1st down (or score) - it’s like saying “it’s 1st and 10 at your opponent’s 10. Which is better, scoring a TD or getting 9 yards?” Anyone saying anything but “score the TD” doesn’t understand the fundamentals off football. 

And if you’re killing clock, 1st down hurts your opponent even more as they still need to use their TO,  and have 1 more down to defend before you can simply take a knee. 

 
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Worth noting: I've never heard a coach at any level tell a RB or WR to deliberately fall down at the 9 yard point untouched because “it’s better to have 2nd & 1”.  

if anyone can find an example of this I’d be  very interested in seeing it. 

 
Well at least you admit you have no answer.
No, I simply didn’t have words for how silly that was. 

saying you’d rather have fewer opportunities to achieve your objective because some mercurial 3rd party (the refs) would have one more chance to screw it up is simply nonsensical. 

bur please do go on and defend your point. I’m fascinated. :popcorn:

 
Nope. I see no advantage of having 2nd down over 1st down. 

1st down & 10 = you have 3 downs to make another 1st down. And maybe 4, depending on the scenario. 

2nd down and 1, you’ve still got to make a 1st down. 

zero exceptions. Get the 1st down. In all the 2nd down scenarios presented, one is still trying to get the 1st down (or score) - it’s like saying “it’s 1st and 10 at your opponent’s 10. Which is better, scoring a TD or getting 9 yards?” Anyone saying anything but “score the TD” doesn’t understand the fundamentals off football. 

And if you’re killing clock, 1st down hurts your opponent even more as they still need to use their TO,  and have 1 more down to defend so you can’t simply take a knee. 
There are absolutely clock killing scenarios where it would be advantageous to have a 2nd and 1 rather than a first and 10. You state that the goals in football are to score points and get first downs. Well there are times when teams prioritize running the clock over each of those things. We’ve all seen players give themselves up on purpose rather then score the td. We’ve seen players give themselves up to stay in bounds rather than gain extra yards. So there are scenarios where clock management is a greater priority than getting first downs or scoring points. The bolded in your quote isn’t correct. If you get 10 on first and 10 you then run 3 more plays before having to punt unless you gain another 10 yards. 4 plays where the clock is running. If you gain 9 on first down then you’ve already ran the clock once and now you need to only gain 1 yard on your next 2 plays for a fresh set of downs. You are running to clock 5 or 6 times in that scenario. That’s a huge advantage. The disadvantage is you may end up only running the clock 3 times if you can’t get the necessary yard on your next 2 plays. In scenarios where 4 plays means your punting it back to your opponent with 35-40 secs left and 5 means it’s game over you should be taking the 2nd and 1.

As for the rest of the field, it’s not nearly as cut and dried as you make it out to be. If your goal is to make first downs and score points as you stated before then you should also be concerned about yards gained as ultimately those are the things that are being rewarded with the first downs and the points. In the original scenario outlined, you would gain as extra yard and get a first down but then to achieve your next first down you need to gain 10 yards in 3 plays. In the 2nd and 1 scenario it is obviously a much easier task to get the first down. So if your objective (as stated by you) is to get future first downs, it would seem you would want to be in a 2nd and 1 rather than a first and 10 unless you think the extra yard gained on your original play is worth more than having a greater chance at getting a first down.

 
Worth noting: I've never heard a coach at any level tell a RB or WR to deliberately fall down at the 9 yard point untouched because “it’s better to have 2nd & 1”.  

if anyone can find an example of this I’d be  very interested in seeing it. 
Of course not. Because in the course of normal game action you don’t know you’re going to be tackled right at 9 or 10 yards. If you’re in the clear so much that you can evaluate whether you should go down or not then you should just keep going and get 15 or 20 yards or whatever. We’ve seen numerous times players give themselves up for clock management purposes- not scoring intentionally/staying in bounds intentionally rather than gain more yards. In some scenarios this has the same strategic benefits, it’s just not as easy to go down right at 9 yards as it is to go down in bounds or go down short of the goal line.

 
So would 1st and 10. 

why would 2nd and 1 be any different in that scenario? 

Of course. Because then I have 1st down and don’t have to try to get 1st down.

seems kind of obvious. I fail to see any advantage to 2nd and 1 or 2nd & inches in either of the scenarios you propose here. 
I think you're looking at this too cut and dry and there would be examples of this. 

This is a rare example but you said "zero exceptions". With 1 minute left, up 1, on your own 1 yard line, other team with 3 timeouts, you can run for 9.9 yards or 10 yards. You'd rather the 10 here?  In scenario A, gaining 1 inch in the next 2 plays wins you the game. In scenario B, you need 10 yards over 3 plays to win you the game. I take my odds on needing 1 inch to win. You qb sneak a couple times and it's done.  If you get the 10 yards like you say you'd rather, you're likely punting with time left on the clock. If you take the 9.9, the game is over by gaining an inch on the next 2 plays. 

Thoughts on this exact scenario?

 
1st play of the game?  
 

9 yard run.  
 

2nd and 1 i have a higher chance of scoring a TD, or picking up a big chunk of yards, the defense has to cover every play in my playbook.  
 

there is no correct answer, it depends on your philosophy. 

 
I do love this topic though, seems very split. 

Doesn't anyone else when watching their team on defense, see the opponent run close to the first down marker on 1st and 10 and just hope he gets it?  Rather than drag out the series?  I often do this because I want a fresh set of downs to try to stop them from getting 10 yards, and I know they'll just convert the 2nd and inches or 3rd and inches anyways.

 
1st and 10, but I do like the idea of a flea flicker on 2nd and 1.
That’s what I’m taking about. Love the flea flicker. But if my team runs that play on first and ten, I love it a little less.

I see a 40/60 split in the voting so this is indeed not an obvious answer. 

 
I do love this topic though, seems very split. 

Doesn't anyone else when watching their team on defense, see the opponent run close to the first down marker on 1st and 10 and just hope he gets it?  Rather than drag out the series?  I often do this because I want a fresh set of downs to try to stop them from getting 10 yards, and I know they'll just convert the 2nd and inches or 3rd and inches anyways.
Absolutely. I don’t want my defense facing down a 2nd and 1.

 

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