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Offical 2020 Las Vegas Raiders thread

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15 hours ago, Chadstroma said:

Really?

Mahomes, as much as it pains me to say this, is THE new QB to beat with Lamar closw behind him. Rodgers, Brady and Brees are in the past and time is clocking on them being out completely. 

QB's of the Mahomes caliber don't come out every year. Hell... even when they do they aren't easy to call... Brady 7th round, Rodgers falls in the 1st after Alex Smith is chosen first, Brees is allowed to walk in FA because they had Rivers, very few had faith in Lamar (how many offers did I get in the off season for him and turned down last year?) even after he played a year... do I go on? 

Is there a QB better than Mahomes in this draft? That is what you are asking for here. If so... who is it? Are we able to get that QB at 12? 

Oh. But you say we don't need a QB better than Mahomes just a QB better than Carr? So then how do we beat them with still a team with less talented QB. Yea... not sure I see that helping. 

Carr isn't Mahomes. We know that. But he isn't that far off either. Let's get a better team than chase dreams of another Mahomes. We can win with Carr if we have the team to do it. 

 

In response to the bolded, I am not saying whether there is a QB better than Carr in this draft. I am just pointing out that the question needs to be in the forefront of the team's thought process. 

Sorry we could not be in more disagreement that Carr isn't that far off from Mahomes. Mahomes doesn't need excuses for his play. He loses Kareem Hunt and the team doesn't miss a beat. Tyreek Hill misses time and the team doesn't miss a beat. Mahomes suffers a dislocated knee and the team continues win. And most important, Mahomes raises the performance of the players around him.

Contrast that with Carr, where excuses are made for the team's under performance. Some of those excuses are valid, like the lack of a #1 WR. Other excuses are not. I do not see Carr as the type of player that lifts the performance of the players around him. I see him as a player that can win when all the players around him are functioning at a high level. That doesn't make him the worst QB option.

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I like Hurts. Wouldn't be disappointed in the slightest if they "reach" for him. In any round. I think Mayock will play it exactly right, if he and Chuck conclude this is the guy they want for the future. They know things we don't, in terms of who else is looking to "reach."

Tua scares the #### outta me. Great player, but made of glass. He has Bo Jackson's injury, right?

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4 hours ago, ICON211 said:

Players I hope are in consideration at 12 or 19:

WR Jeudy, Lamb, Ruggs

DT Brown, Kinlaw

LB Simmons, Murray

CB Okudah, Henderson, Johnson

S Winfield

I'd be very happy with two of those guys if the Raiders stay put and pick at 12 and 19.  I realize there is close to a zero percent chance that Okudah or Simmons are there, but I can dream.

I think CB Terrell is a possibility at #19 as well

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2 minutes ago, 32 Counter Pass said:

In response to the bolded, I am not saying whether there is a QB better than Carr in this draft. I am just pointing out that the question needs to be in the forefront of the team's thought process. 

Sorry we could not be in more disagreement that Carr isn't that far off from Mahomes. Mahomes doesn't need excuses for his play. He loses Kareem Hunt and the team doesn't miss a beat. Tyreek Hill misses time and the team doesn't miss a beat. Mahomes suffers a dislocated knee and the team continues win. And most important, Mahomes raises the performance of the players around him.

Contrast that with Carr, where excuses are made for the team's under performance. Some of those excuses are valid, like the lack of a #1 WR. Other excuses are not. I do not see Carr as the type of player that lifts the performance of the players around him. I see him as a player that can win when all the players around him are functioning at a high level. That doesn't make him the worst QB option.

You just made my argument for me bud. 

The bolded part. 

Matt freaking Moore.... capable backup and that is it. We KNOW this. 2 starts = 4 TD's and 0 INT's. There was a slight decline in completion percentage and QB rating from Mahomes to Moore. How much is it that the team around Mahomes helps elevate his play? No knock on Mahomes, he is a great QB (dammit) but he has a offensive team around him that play whether he is there or not. Now, would I take Mahomes over Carr? Yes. But how many games would we have won last year with Mahomes? Maybe 1 more I say. 

Carr isn't the problem. The team is. We are fixing the problem. Stay tuned. 

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1 minute ago, Chadstroma said:

You just made my argument for me bud. 

The bolded part. 

Matt freaking Moore.... capable backup and that is it. We KNOW this. 2 starts = 4 TD's and 0 INT's. There was a slight decline in completion percentage and QB rating from Mahomes to Moore. How much is it that the team around Mahomes helps elevate his play? No knock on Mahomes, he is a great QB (dammit) but he has a offensive team around him that play whether he is there or not. Now, would I take Mahomes over Carr? Yes. But how many games would we have won last year with Mahomes? Maybe 1 more I say. 

Carr isn't the problem. The team is. We are fixing the problem. Stay tuned. 

Mahomes returned the same year to play with the injury and lead the team to the SB. Carr returns from a back injury the next year and excuses are made.

Carr is a decent mid tier QB. There are worse choices. He is no where near the same zip code as Mahomes. The fact that you think so puts you in a very small minority and shows your fandom is clouding your thinking. 

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5 minutes ago, 32 Counter Pass said:

Mahomes returned the same year to play with the injury and lead the team to the SB. Carr returns from a back injury the next year and excuses are made.

Carr is a decent mid tier QB. There are worse choices. He is no where near the same zip code as Mahomes. The fact that you think so puts you in a very small minority and shows your fandom is clouding your thinking. 

Matt freaking Moore. 

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4 minutes ago, 32 Counter Pass said:

LOL. Well done ignoring the point. 

You did a better job at the before. So... I tried to help you out there. 

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1 minute ago, Chadstroma said:

You did a better job at the before. So... I tried to help you out there. 

Actually I have addressed your points. you are choosing to ignore them. In sum, you think Carr's talent level is very close to Mahomes, despite evidence to the contrary. Will be fun to see how this ages. 

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1 minute ago, 32 Counter Pass said:

Actually I have addressed your points. you are choosing to ignore them. In sum, you think Carr's talent level is very close to Mahomes, despite evidence to the contrary. Will be fun to see how this ages. 

Mahomes > Moore

Mahomes > Carr

Carr > Moore

Moore played two games and performed well with statistically not much variance from when Mahomes played. That is information that disputes your claim that Mahomes elevates the play of his team. For you to be right, it would have to be said that Moore elevates the play of his team as well while having significantly less playing ability than Mahomes. Or is it Moore doesn't elevate his team but is only slightly less talented than Mahomes? Or he elevates the team a little less and is a little less talented as well? I am not sure... here. 

I do know Carr is a better QB than Moore for sure. If Carr was the backup QB and played instead of Moore are you telling me that Carr would have played less well? I guess his inability to elevate the team would have resulted in a much higher degree of statistical difference from Mahomes. 

I guess your argument is that Moore is a better QB than Carr and we should get him since he is pretty close to Mahomes statistically playing with the same team. 

You are missing the point. You are saying that Carr doesn't elevate the team but have no real evidence for that. Meanwhile, I am pointing out that your assertion, backed by evidence, is not a very good one. I further extrapolate that to say that it isn't a matter of Carr not elevating the play of his team but not having much of a team to elevate over the last few years. He did pretty damn well having a TE to throw to last year. 

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Carr lost his deep ball and his courage under fire when he broke his leg and back. I haven't seen the same player since. Still like the guy and hope he finds a way to get rid of those demons, but the leash shortens with each added piece around him. And no matter what we think, Gruyock is determined to improve talent and depth across all positions, so it only makes sense to do so at QB as well, both to mitigate injury risk AND to potentially unearth a better starting QB, should Carr continue to play so conservatively as the team around him gets stronger. For now, DC is a stop-gap with upside. But he needs to more consistently show that upside again or Gruyock will continue to search for a replacement that can/will - Marriota was the first indication of that search, and perhaps the draft will yield another. 

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30 minutes ago, Chadstroma said:

Mahomes > Moore

Mahomes > Carr

Carr > Moore

Moore played two games and performed well with statistically not much variance from when Mahomes played. That is information that disputes your claim that Mahomes elevates the play of his team. For you to be right, it would have to be said that Moore elevates the play of his team as well while having significantly less playing ability than Mahomes. Or is it Moore doesn't elevate his team but is only slightly less talented than Mahomes? Or he elevates the team a little less and is a little less talented as well? I am not sure... here. 

I do know Carr is a better QB than Moore for sure. If Carr was the backup QB and played instead of Moore are you telling me that Carr would have played less well? I guess his inability to elevate the team would have resulted in a much higher degree of statistical difference from Mahomes. 

I guess your argument is that Moore is a better QB than Carr and we should get him since he is pretty close to Mahomes statistically playing with the same team. 

You are missing the point. You are saying that Carr doesn't elevate the team but have no real evidence for that. Meanwhile, I am pointing out that your assertion, backed by evidence, is not a very good one. I further extrapolate that to say that it isn't a matter of Carr not elevating the play of his team but not having much of a team to elevate over the last few years. He did pretty damn well having a TE to throw to last year. 

Nope, we are not communicating. You have grabbed on to the my mention of Mahomes' injury and ignored all the other statements. My over riding point is that Carr's career is full of excuses as to why he has only posted 1 winning season in 6 years. Let's review:

In 2016 Carr get's injured in week 15. The Raiders never finish with a winning record since.
In 2019 Mahomes dislocates his knee in week 7. He returns in week 10 to lead the Chief to the SB playing at less than 100%

Mahomes looses Kareem Hunt in week 11 of 2018. Mahomes leads team to AFC conference game.
Carr loses Josh Jacobs in week 13 of 2019.  Raiders win one game the remainder of the season.

Mahomes looses Tyreek Hill in week 1 of 2019. The Chiefs go 3-1 during his absence.
Carr looses Hunter Renfro in week 11 of  2019. The Raiders go 0-3 during his absence.

Carr is a very fragile asset dependent on surrounding talent. 

 

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48 minutes ago, LawFitz said:

Carr lost his deep ball and his courage under fire when he broke his leg and back. I haven't seen the same player since. Still like the guy and hope he finds a way to get rid of those demons, but the leash shortens with each added piece around him. And no matter what we think, Gruyock is determined to improve talent and depth across all positions, so it only makes sense to do so at QB as well, both to mitigate injury risk AND to potentially unearth a better starting QB, should Carr continue to play so conservatively as the team around him gets stronger. For now, DC is a stop-gap with upside. But he needs to more consistently show that upside again or Gruyock will continue to search for a replacement that can/will - Marriota was the first indication of that search, and perhaps the draft will yield another. 

Marriota was a "uh, guys, do we really want to go into the season with Glennon, Peterman or Kizer as our backup if Carr gets hurt?" move

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1 hour ago, Chadstroma said:

You just made my argument for me bud. 

The bolded part. 

Matt freaking Moore.... capable backup and that is it. We KNOW this. 2 starts = 4 TD's and 0 INT's. There was a slight decline in completion percentage and QB rating from Mahomes to Moore. How much is it that the team around Mahomes helps elevate his play? No knock on Mahomes, he is a great QB (dammit) but he has a offensive team around him that play whether he is there or not. Now, would I take Mahomes over Carr? Yes. But how many games would we have won last year with Mahomes? Maybe 1 more I say. 

Carr isn't the problem. The team is. We are fixing the problem. Stay tuned. 

I'd say three more at least.  Mahomes is head and shoulders better than Carr.  There is no comparison.

How about this.......is Carr closer to [insert any slightly below average NFL starter] or a potential all time great HOF QB.  If you think he is closer to the latter then I am not sure what to say.    

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3 minutes ago, Chadstroma said:

Marriota was a "uh, guys, do we really want to go into the season with Glennon, Peterman or Kizer as our backup if Carr gets hurt?" move

Completely disagree and the contract they gave him tells a different story than what you are saying.  He did not get straight backup QB money and it has incentives that can bring the contract even higher.

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15 minutes ago, ICON211 said:

I'd say three more at least.  Mahomes is head and shoulders better than Carr.  There is no comparison.

How about this.......is Carr closer to [insert any slightly below average NFL starter] or a potential all time great HOF QB.  If you think he is closer to the latter then I am not sure what to say.    

Is Moore better than Carr? I say absolutely not. The drop off from Mahomes to Moore was not overly significant. If you put Carr in there instead of Moore for those games there is no doubt that Carr would perform better and then production would be pretty damn close to Mahomes. 

I don't even know what your question is suppose to mean. Is our choice to go out and get an all time great HOF QB? If it is... I am all for it. Is Carr and all time great HOF QB? No. Is he close to that? No. Is he a damn good QB that you can win with? Yes. Do we have a clear cut obvious upgrade at QB in this draft? No. 

Why go around in more circles? We go and get playmakers. We have already gone 12-4 with a team that was inferior to what we could bring together after this draft and have a young team to go forward with. He has shown he can win and didn't have that strong of a team to go 12-4. Take the QB's out. Who has the clearly better roster? The 2019 Chefs or the 2016 Raiders? The Chefs have a window closing when they are going to have to let good players go because of big contracts coming.

That is the frustration. This isn't fantasy football. We can't just get an all time great HOF QB. We have a franchise QB in place. Let's get the final pieces together to let him go. If we do and the offense flops (assuming no huge blow ups of an entire position group like the 2018 Oline or the 2019 WR corps) then you guys are right and it is on Carr and let's move forward. But damn, some guys out there will still blame Carr if our offense is a top 5 and our D sucks and we go 8-8. 

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24 minutes ago, ICON211 said:

Completely disagree and the contract they gave him tells a different story than what you are saying.  He did not get straight backup QB money and it has incentives that can bring the contract even higher.

Wha?

You give incentives to a backup QB like that as the carrot of "Hey, if you play we pay. Work hard and be ready."

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31 minutes ago, 32 Counter Pass said:

Nope, we are not communicating. You have grabbed on to the my mention of Mahomes' injury and ignored all the other statements. My over riding point is that Carr's career is full of excuses as to why he has only posted 1 winning season in 6 years. Let's review:

In 2016 Carr get's injured in week 15. The Raiders never finish with a winning record since.
In 2019 Mahomes dislocates his knee in week 7. He returns in week 10 to lead the Chief to the SB playing at less than 100%

Mahomes looses Kareem Hunt in week 11 of 2018. Mahomes leads team to AFC conference game.
Carr loses Josh Jacobs in week 13 of 2019.  Raiders win one game the remainder of the season.

Mahomes looses Tyreek Hill in week 1 of 2019. The Chiefs go 3-1 during his absence.
Carr looses Hunter Renfro in week 11 of  2019. The Raiders go 0-3 during his absence.

Carr is a very fragile asset dependent on surrounding talent. 

 

It isn't excuses it is an analysis. A true analysis takes into account the entire picture. 

Quote

In 2016 Carr get's injured in week 15. The Raiders never finish with a winning record since.
In 2019 Mahomes dislocates his knee in week 7. He returns in week 10 to lead the Chief to the SB playing at less than 100%

There is no value in this statement. Again, take out the QB position. Who has the better team? 2016 Raiders or 2019 Chefs? 

Quote

Mahomes looses Kareem Hunt in week 11 of 2018. Mahomes leads team to AFC conference game.
Carr loses Josh Jacobs in week 13 of 2019.  Raiders win one game the remainder of the season.

Still pointless. Take out Hunt and Jacobs. Who had a better team? 2018 Chefs or 2019 Raiders?

Quote

Mahomes looses Tyreek Hill in week 1 of 2019. The Chiefs go 3-1 during his absence.
Carr looses Hunter Renfro in week 11 of  2019. The Raiders go 0-3 during his absence.

You should guess this by now... but you are not making a point here. Take Hill and Renfrow out. Who has a better team? The 2019 Chefs or the 2019 Raiders? 

We are communicating. I understand what you are trying to say. I just think it is silly to try to make that argument. Something happens and the Raiders lose... well, that is Carr's fault. Let's ignore the mess of an Oline and bad D in 2018. Let's ignore the mess of a WR corps and bad D in 2019. It is all Carr. We somehow will be able to trade this horrible QB to another team (odd considering he is suppose to suck) and then draft a rookie QB at 12 I guess that will be closer to Mahomes than Carr and somehow win even though we took valuable draft capital to invest in this rookie instead of getting playmakers. Silliness. Just silly. 

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1 minute ago, Chadstroma said:

Wha?

You give incentives to a backup QB like that as the carrot of "Hey, if you play we pay. Work hard and be ready."

The contract they gave him tells me they like him a good deal and think they could turn to him if Carr is not playing up to Gruden's standards.  It's been reported that his base makes him the highest paid backup in the league with the ability to earn significantly more than the base through incentives.  

https://www.espn.com/blog/nflnation/post/_/id/306939/how-does-marcus-mariota-and-his-big-for-a-backup-contract-fit-with-the-raiders

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Posted (edited)
20 minutes ago, Chadstroma said:

Is Moore better than Carr? I say absolutely not. The drop off from Mahomes to Moore was not overly significant. If you put Carr in there instead of Moore for those games there is no doubt that Carr would perform better and then production would be pretty damn close to Mahomes. 

I don't even know what your question is suppose to mean. Is our choice to go out and get an all time great HOF QB? If it is... I am all for it. Is Carr and all time great HOF QB? No. Is he close to that? No. Is he a damn good QB that you can win with? Yes. Do we have a clear cut obvious upgrade at QB in this draft? No. 

Why go around in more circles? We go and get playmakers. We have already gone 12-4 with a team that was inferior to what we could bring together after this draft and have a young team to go forward with. He has shown he can win and didn't have that strong of a team to go 12-4. Take the QB's out. Who has the clearly better roster? The 2019 Chefs or the 2016 Raiders? The Chefs have a window closing when they are going to have to let good players go because of big contracts coming.

That is the frustration. This isn't fantasy football. We can't just get an all time great HOF QB. We have a franchise QB in place. Let's get the final pieces together to let him go. If we do and the offense flops (assuming no huge blow ups of an entire position group like the 2018 Oline or the 2019 WR corps) then you guys are right and it is on Carr and let's move forward. But damn, some guys out there will still blame Carr if our offense is a top 5 and our D sucks and we go 8-8. 

My question is supposed to mean that Carr is an average QB and if Gruden and Mayock think they can significantly improve the position then they should whether it's in this draft or at any time subsequent.

I think the most likely scenario is not taking a QB at 12 or 19 and going into the season with Carr as the starter, but I do not think it will take a lot for Gruden to turn to Mariota.

Edited by ICON211

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16 minutes ago, Chadstroma said:

It isn't excuses it is an analysis. A true analysis takes into account the entire picture. 

There is no value in this statement. Again, take out the QB position. Who has the better team? 2016 Raiders or 2019 Chefs? 

Still pointless. Take out Hunt and Jacobs. Who had a better team? 2018 Chefs or 2019 Raiders?

You should guess this by now... but you are not making a point here. Take Hill and Renfrow out. Who has a better team? The 2019 Chefs or the 2019 Raiders? 

We are communicating. I understand what you are trying to say. I just think it is silly to try to make that argument. Something happens and the Raiders lose... well, that is Carr's fault. Let's ignore the mess of an Oline and bad D in 2018. Let's ignore the mess of a WR corps and bad D in 2019. It is all Carr. We somehow will be able to trade this horrible QB to another team (odd considering he is suppose to suck) and then draft a rookie QB at 12 I guess that will be closer to Mahomes than Carr and somehow win even though we took valuable draft capital to invest in this rookie instead of getting playmakers. Silliness. Just silly. 

What is silly is not hold Carr accountable for any of anything. I only hear excuses. Carr is not a great QB by any stretch of the imagination. He could be a good QB under the perfect circumstances, but never a great QB. He does not elevate the play of those around, whereas Mahomes does.

Put Carr on the Chiefs they do not sniff the Super bowl. You honestly think that Carr is capable of leading a comeback they way Mahomes did vs HOU in the playoffs? 

And that is my point. 

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How many QBs in the last 10-15 years were starters as rookies and played all 16 games? How many QBs in that same time frame had to go through two full-blown roster tear downs and complete rebuilds and go through HCs and OCs like revolving doors? Name me another QB that has played for a worse organization in the past two decades than Carr? Ok maybe Matt Stafford. Not to mention, Oakland has had some of the worst defenses in the NFL while Carr has been there. All the while he has displayed solid leadership and held his chin up and hardly ever complained as he watched guys like Mack and Cooper walk out the door.

Carr has become the ultimate scapegoat. I get just as frustrated as anyone watching the bonehead plays but every QB in the league screws up from time to time, and as fans, how are we qualified to say an INT or mis-read is 100% his fault? Like it or not, Carr is our QB, he's Gruden's QB and he's better than any options that are out there at this point and time. Mariota was signed as a backup, that's it, period. The Raiders haven't had a solid backup QB since Carr has been there. Theres no way Mariota will outplay him without any experience in Gruden's offense. Mariota was benched for Ryan freaking Tannehill! The guy was practically run out of Miami and the league. Props to him for turning it around, but Mariota was a high 1st round pick meant to be the future of the Titans and he flopped. Mariota is nothing but a reclamation project and a better backup than the team has ever had.

Carr already has home in Nevada and he's ready to lead that organization to Vegas, and if Gruyock can give him a #1WR and a half way decent defense that can get off the field on 3rd down, he will be more than capable in getting them back to the playoffs. 

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34 minutes ago, 32 Counter Pass said:

What is silly is not hold Carr accountable for any of anything. I only hear excuses. Carr is not a great QB by any stretch of the imagination. He could be a good QB under the perfect circumstances, but never a great QB. He does not elevate the play of those around, whereas Mahomes does.

Put Carr on the Chiefs they do not sniff the Super bowl. You honestly think that Carr is capable of leading a comeback they way Mahomes did vs HOU in the playoffs? 

And that is my point. 

Saying something over and over doesn't make it true. Moore is THAT good of a QB that he continues to elevate the Chefs players around him went playing in place of Mahomes? If not, explain. 

18 4th Q comebacks and 19 game winning drives on mostly dumpster fire teams says yes, he would have a shot to do that on the Chefs team. Would he for sure? I don't know. You don't know for sure for any QB other than what actually happened. 

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7 hours ago, 32 Counter Pass said:

Carr is a decent mid tier QB. There are worse choices. He is no where near the same zip code as Mahomes. The fact that you think so puts you in a very small minority and shows your fandom is clouding your thinking. 

I am not going to argue Carr v Mahomes. I think aspects of Mahomes' game are overrated (his PA mechanics aren't great, he has improved his footwork since coming to the league but can still improve, and he has a tendency to force the ball too much to try and beat tight man coverage), but what he does clearly excel at -- scrambling in and out of pocket and making throws on the move -- is better than any other QB I've ever seen. Period. As, like, there may not be another QB in the history of the game who can make the kinds of throws that Mahomes does on a regular basis. It is not a stretch by any means to say that Mahomes is a better QB than Carr in my mind.

But in terms of the bolded, that statistically would mean in a league with 32 teams, Carr ranks around the 16th best QB. To me, that is really underrating Carr, regardless of the flaws you may see in his game.

So I'd be curious to know the 15 other starting QBs in the NFL you think are clearly better than Carr.

I did this exercise in this thread (or maybe last year's) as I had Carr as a Top 10 player, and thus a quality starting option which, when you look at all 32 starting QBs in the league, is not that common.  

 

7 hours ago, LawFitz said:

Carr lost his deep ball and his courage under fire when he broke his leg and back. I haven't seen the same player since. Still like the guy and hope he finds a way to get rid of those demons, but the leash shortens with each added piece around him. And no matter what we think, Gruyock is determined to improve talent and depth across all positions, so it only makes sense to do so at QB as well, both to mitigate injury risk AND to potentially unearth a better starting QB, should Carr continue to play so conservatively as the team around him gets stronger. For now, DC is a stop-gap with upside. But he needs to more consistently show that upside again or Gruyock will continue to search for a replacement that can/will - Marriota was the first indication of that search, and perhaps the draft will yield another. 

I've been one of Carr's biggest supporters here and elsewhere, and I think I had the same fear, voicing it the season Carr came back from his back injury. His deep balls had a little more air and weren't those drop in the buckets he could make earlier and in college. I wondered (and still do sometimes) about some of his mechanics since.

To me this has only affected his long ball, but I also wondered how much that was on his receivers -- Cooper never was a true home run speedster and lacked the fire to go downfield to contest balls. Seth Roberts was a speedster but not the most polished.

We did see solid flashes of the accurate deep ball last year to Ty and Waller, though, so I think with disciplined receivers willing and able to burn deep, Carr can get the ball to them. But I wouldn't say I am completely over my worry about his long ball. He had some pretty poor throws deep when forced/rushed last year.

The good news is that Gruden's offense does not necessitate a Marino or a Jeff George-type cannon -- it's all about short and intermediate passes that move the chains and create down/distance opportunities. It's the kind of offense that prizes efficiency and catch rate -- it's also the kind of offense that causes so many to be quick to call Carr a check-down artist and failing to realize that this is the offense Gruden runs.

I think it's a perfect scheme for Carr -- who is incredibly accurate and smart with the ball in the short and middle parts of the field -- and one he is going to continue to flourish with this year as he leads us to the playoffs.

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I think the truth lies in the middle of the extremes of the last page re: Carr. Both sides seem to be twisting the wind of the other. Carr reminds me most of Matt Stafford. On so many levels, including clutch performances when needed, personality type and demeanor, and most of all, lack of ability to get beyond that low-end top 10ish range of NFL QB. Now that's not as much of an indictment as a true Carr detractor might present, but Carr hasn't looked even close to more than that since the back and leg breaks, IMHO... Whereas he was starting to look like a legit top-5 QB during the leg-break season.

Bottom line for me, Carr isn't making the horrific errors that true #### QBs make, but he's also acting scared in the pocket on a regular basis, which will prevent him from entering the elite tier. That and he's never been able to harness his natural athleticism into mobility, despite Gruden's constant prodding. Not only doesn't he run when wide open lanes emerge, but he also doesn't have that natural pocket presence to take that subtle step forward or to the side based on feel and peripheral vision. That lack of pocket instinct has been his downfall. It eventually led to his injuries (arguably, if not definitively); and I don't think it's something he can suddenly fix. I hope I'm wrong, but I see Carr as a good, never great, and if we can find a legit great QB, then I'm all for it.

And Mariotta's contract for sure is set up for him to challenge Carr. The numbers tell the tale, without any doubt. That is NOT your standard backup QB contract.

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Let's sidestep the QB question for a minute...

I think the roster could really benefit from a poor-man's Jacobs somewhere in this draft, to spell him and step in if injury strikes again. Who are the 220lb+ RBs with good vision and receiving ability in this draft? I don't care about 40 time for this player, unless it also coincides with slow 3-cone, shuttle drills and no-burst game tape. Is there a young Demarco Murray somewhere in this pool? I think if there's a legit RB who fits such a bill, using one of the third rounders isn't a bad idea. Even better later, if there's some DII beast waiting to be unearthed.

Too bad Isaiah Crowell blew his heel last year. He was (is?) exactly the type of player I'm describing, except his receiving skills are average. Not bad, but not plus.

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53 minutes ago, LawFitz said:

Let's sidestep the QB question for a minute...

I think the roster could really benefit from a poor-man's Jacobs somewhere in this draft, to spell him and step in if injury strikes again. Who are the 220lb+ RBs with good vision and receiving ability in this draft? I don't care about 40 time for this player, unless it also coincides with slow 3-cone, shuttle drills and no-burst game tape. Is there a young Demarco Murray somewhere in this pool? I think if there's a legit RB who fits such a bill, using one of the third rounders isn't a bad idea. Even better later, if there's some DII beast waiting to be unearthed.

Too bad Isaiah Crowell blew his heel last year. He was (is?) exactly the type of player I'm describing, except his receiving skills are average. Not bad, but not plus.

I am not sure if there is one but if there is a bigger back 230+ pounder then that is what I want. We retained Richard who excels as a third down back and can spell Jacobs too. Jacobs is not a small guy but it would be nice to have a big bulky guy that we cam use to be a battering ram I think that fits a better need. If Ingold had some running skillsthen I would be good but he doesn't show that. Much more of just a blocking back. 

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Posted (edited)
7 hours ago, Chadstroma said:

I am not sure if there is one but if there is a bigger back 230+ pounder then that is what I want. We retained Richard who excels as a third down back and can spell Jacobs too. Jacobs is not a small guy but it would be nice to have a big bulky guy that we cam use to be a battering ram I think that fits a better need. If Ingold had some running skillsthen I would be good but he doesn't show that. Much more of just a blocking back. 

You ordered the AJ DIllon, is that correct, sir?

https://www.nfl.com/prospects/aj-dillon?id=32194449-4c23-7740-624c-afbd67329c54

Raiders Twitter has been chatting about Dillon. They give more weight to the fact that he's a BC alum (Mayock) than I do, but he has some siiiick highlights.  

On that nfl.com link above, the video is his combine workout. His lower body looks like an OG.  I have memories of Crockett running behind that line on 1st and goal from the 2. 

Quote

Percentage of carries with 8+ men in the box for some notable RBs in the 2020 class: A.J. Dillon - 46% Jonathan Taylor - 29% D'Andre Swift - 23% Zack Moss - 13% J.K. Dobbins - 9% Clyde Edwards-Helaire - 6% Cam Akers - 5%

Teams stacked the box to stop him. He'll see less attention in the pros.  

I will be rooting for a 3rd RB who adds something, especially if we trade down, and grab extra 4/5/6 picks.  More weapons for Carr, right? 

Edited by massraider
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Posted (edited)

I don't want to change the subject from finding another back, cause I like the idea.

But this info is too good.

https://twitter.com/PFF_AustinGayle/status/1238992206192611329

Percentage of targets by route for the top WRs.

Percentage of yards by route for the top WRs. 

 

If we are looking for a true #1, (and I am not so sure that is even the best way to build a passing game but whatever), then count me out on Higgins and Aiyuk.

Also:

Quote

Notable yards per route #s vs man in WR class

Jerry Jeudy 3.14

Denzel Mims 2.86

K.J. Hill 2.65

Tyler Johnson 2.62

Brandon Aiyuk 2.51

Jalen Reagor 2.43

Ceedee Lamb 2.38

Isaiah Hodgins 2.34

Michael Pittman Jr. 2.26

Justin Jefferson 2.02

Bryan Edwards 1.36

Henry Ruggs III 1.08

  

Edited by massraider

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2 hours ago, massraider said:

You ordered the AJ DIllon, is that correct, sir?

https://www.nfl.com/prospects/aj-dillon?id=32194449-4c23-7740-624c-afbd67329c54

Raiders Twitter has been chatting about Dillon. They give more weight to the fact that he's a BC alum (Mayock) than I do, but he has some siiiick highlights.  

On that nfl.com link above, the video is his combine workout. His lower body looks like an OG.  I have memories of Crockett running behind that line on 1st and goal from the 2. 

Teams stacked the box to stop him. He'll see less attention in the pros.  

I will be rooting for a 3rd RB who adds something, especially if we trade down, and grab extra 4/5/6 picks.  More weapons for Carr, right? 

Been touting us aiming for Dillon as he's a perfect complimentary back we could use in the here and now to Jacobs/Richard. We have Rod Smith who is 6'3 235, but Smith is more of a jack of all trades (HB/FB/ST journeyman who has sound but not spectacular running and receiving skills) and not sure he has proven he could crack above a third string back consistently. I think we also have CFL standout William Stanback, who 6'0 233 is relatively unproven on the NFL stage.

Dillon brings a pure powerback profile to the team, very reminiscent of Crowell/Lynch/Crockett style of play in terms of being a N/S one-cut runner who doesn't shy from contact. Not just a bruiser, he has some wiggle and athleticism who is great for short down/distance and inside the 10 work and to spell Jacobs on running series. Downsides are that his hands aren't great and he has a lot of hard miles on those tires.

We could use a guy like that back in our offense -- Jacobs has great power and can 100% be our bellcow but we need to keep him durable and healthy. Richard is a great spell on 3rd downs but he's only getting older. Adding a guy like Dillon this year helps to add a piece to our running game that we don't have.

That said, I would also not be averse to finding a solid replacement with upside for Richard. He is not getting younger, and having another pass catching back with high football IQ to help 3rd down protection schemes would also be needed -- maybe not as crucially this year as next, but still something we should be looking for.

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10 hours ago, grateful zed said:

this thread is wordy.

So skip it?

We're passionate in here, we all bleed Silver and Black, with some great debate and insight.

Length of posts in here are invariably made up for in well-reasoned logic, detail, data, and criticism.

It ain't for everyone, apparently, but man do I love it in here.

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11 hours ago, LawFitz said:

I think the truth lies in the middle of the extremes of the last page re: Carr. Both sides seem to be twisting the wind of the other. Carr reminds me most of Matt Stafford. On so many levels, including clutch performances when needed, personality type and demeanor, and most of all, lack of ability to get beyond that low-end top 10ish range of NFL QB. Now that's not as much of an indictment as a true Carr detractor might present, but Carr hasn't looked even close to more than that since the back and leg breaks, IMHO... Whereas he was starting to look like a legit top-5 QB during the leg-break season.

Solid points overall, and I wonder if his pocket presence/comfort has more to do with the offense that he's trying to run as opposed to his natural proclivities, as he certainly has looked comfy in the pocket before.

Anyway, focusing on the bold for a second -- I will always uphold people's criticsm of Carr. He ain't perfect, he ain't always pretty, and like every QB, can improve in spots.

I guess my reaction to criticism of Carr is that there is so much "sturm und drang" over a statistical Top 10 QB. In a vacuum, any NFL fan of a team would be thrilled to have a Top 10 guy in the league. Instead, there is much more doubt and even outright calling for change, which I guess I will never understand.

I think we can all agree that if Carr has a down season, we will all be bitterly disappointed, and that this season truly is his watershed moment.

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3 hours ago, massraider said:

You ordered the AJ DIllon, is that correct, sir?

https://www.nfl.com/prospects/aj-dillon?id=32194449-4c23-7740-624c-afbd67329c54

Raiders Twitter has been chatting about Dillon. They give more weight to the fact that he's a BC alum (Mayock) than I do, but he has some siiiick highlights.  

On that nfl.com link above, the video is his combine workout. His lower body looks like an OG.  I have memories of Crockett running behind that line on 1st and goal from the 2. 

Teams stacked the box to stop him. He'll see less attention in the pros.  

I will be rooting for a 3rd RB who adds something, especially if we trade down, and grab extra 4/5/6 picks.  More weapons for Carr, right? 

I didn't have a name (until now) of what I was thinking but that fits exactly what my vision was for this! I think that really adds to the RB group if we got him in and rounds out what Jacobs (all around primary back), Richard (third down specialist and quicker, faster small guy) with Dillon (big bruiser for short yardage and wear teams down). 

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19 minutes ago, Stompin' Tom Connors said:

Been touting us aiming for Dillon as he's a perfect complimentary back we could use in the here and now to Jacobs/Richard. We have Rod Smith who is 6'3 235, but Smith is more of a jack of all trades (HB/FB/ST journeyman who has sound but not spectacular running and receiving skills) and not sure he has proven he could crack above a third string back consistently. I think we also have CFL standout William Stanback, who 6'0 233 is relatively unproven on the NFL stage.

Dillon brings a pure powerback profile to the team, very reminiscent of Crowell/Lynch/Crockett style of play in terms of being a N/S one-cut runner who doesn't shy from contact. Not just a bruiser, he has some wiggle and athleticism who is great for short down/distance and inside the 10 work and to spell Jacobs on running series. Downsides are that his hands aren't great and he has a lot of hard miles on those tires.

We could use a guy like that back in our offense -- Jacobs has great power and can 100% be our bellcow but we need to keep him durable and healthy. Richard is a great spell on 3rd downs but he's only getting older. Adding a guy like Dillon this year helps to add a piece to our running game that we don't have.

That said, I would also not be averse to finding a solid replacement with upside for Richard. He is not getting younger, and having another pass catching back with high football IQ to help 3rd down protection schemes would also be needed -- maybe not as crucially this year as next, but still something we should be looking for.

I did forget about Rod. He does have more size than Jacobs, taller... Jacobs is 6' I think.... and slightly heavier. I can't recall seeing Rod play but his height and weight is almost identical to Latavius Murray whom I always thought needed to put on more weight to be more effective. 

I likey Dillon though. What is his projected draft rounds now?

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I'll just leave this here...

NFL career leaders with 20K+ yards in Touchdown/Interception ratio:

1. Aaron Rodgers 4.33

2. Russell Wilson 3.34

3. Tom Brady 3.02

4. Drew Brees 2.31

5. Derek Carr 2.31

6. Matt Ryan 2.18

7. Kirk Cousins 2.18

8. Steve Young 2.17

9. Peyton Manning 2.15

10. Tony Romo 2.12

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I also like Dillon and I like Anthony McFarland, but he is a different type of back than Dillon.

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2 hours ago, Chadstroma said:

I didn't have a name (until now) of what I was thinking but that fits exactly what my vision was for this! I think that really adds to the RB group if we got him in and rounds out what Jacobs (all around primary back), Richard (third down specialist and quicker, faster small guy) with Dillon (big bruiser for short yardage and wear teams down). 

The Raiders must have a bruising RB on the roster to save some wear and tear on Jacobs and punish defenses.  I wouldn’t spend a third round pick since we are talking about a role player and depth (hopefully).   

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Posted (edited)

Most projections I see have Dillon projected as a 3rd rounder, but seen so much variance in ranking the RB class that it really is up in the air.

Other candidates that bring some power game (though have no idea where their availability might be) are guys like Zack Moss (with a sound broken tackle rate and contact balance) and Antonio Gibson (elusive and powerful but raw).

Edited by Stompin' Tom Connors

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Zay Jones and Nelson Agholor are on one year deals, Tyrell will be making 11.6 mill (5th highest paid player) with no dead cap.

We are going to draft at LEAST two WRs.  

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59 minutes ago, massraider said:

Zay Jones and Nelson Agholor are on one year deals, Tyrell will be making 11.6 mill (5th highest paid player) with no dead cap.

We are going to draft at LEAST two WRs.  

Agreed. 

CLAYPOOL!

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Derek Carr converted 46.2% of his 3rd down passes into 1st downs. That is 5th-best in 2019

and Knowing is half the battle!

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Fun facts:

Derek Carr finished top-10 in 2019 at the following categories:

* Completions

* Completion %

* Yards

* TD/INT Ratio

* 1st Downs

* Yards per Attempt

* Passer Rating

* Passer Rating (under pressure)

* 4th Quarter Comebacks

* Game-Winning Drives

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5 hours ago, Chadstroma said:

Fun facts:

Derek Carr finished top-10 in 2019 at the following categories:

* Completions

* Completion %

* Yards

* TD/INT Ratio

* 1st Downs

* Yards per Attempt

* Passer Rating

* Passer Rating (under pressure)

* 4th Quarter Comebacks

* Game-Winning Drives

If you think Carr was great last year you didn't watch the games.  Only 13 QBs played 16 games last year and he was one of them so I would hope he would be top 10 in some of the categories you listed.  Stats are not the be all and end all.  Do you know who threw as many TDs as Carr and less interceptions?  Gardner Minshew.  If Carr was so great why were the Raiders 24th is points per game last year at 19.6?  You think he's great and some of us think he is merely average.  He will likely be the starter when the season opens up and I hope he is great this year.  Can we move on now?

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Posted (edited)
On 4/14/2020 at 12:26 PM, Chadstroma said:

I'll just leave this here...

Dood. It's Christmas Eve. 🙏

 

Bob McGinn is the journo who speaks with many scouts for an annual anonymous round table. He's doing a different position group every day, and clearly must be a closet Raider fan, because he started with WR (and TE, but who cares). This is, without question, the single BEST pre-draft piece every year.  I'll add the other relevant ones. 

 

Quote

My polling of 17 executives in personnel took place in the last 2 ½ weeks. Each scout was asked to rank the wide receivers on a 1 to 6 basis, with a first-place vote worth 6 points, a second worth 5 and so on.

CeeDee Lamb, with 87 points and 10 first-place votes, nosed out Jerry Jeudy, who had 86 and five. Following, in order, were Henry Ruggs (66, one), Justin Jefferson (28 ½), Tee Higgins (25 ½, one), Bryan Edwards (13), Brandon Aiyuk (12), Laviska Shenault (11), Jalen Reagor (10), KJ Hamler (4 ½), Denzel Mims (four), Lynn Bowden (three), Quez Watkins (three), Van Jefferson (two), Gabriel Davis (one) and Michael Pittman (one-half).

Then the personnel men were asked who among the top 10 or 12 players had the best chance to bust. Shenault led the way with eight votes followed by Mims with four, Higgins with two and Hamler, Reagor and Ruggs, each one.

“It’d be foolish for a team to sit there (in the teens) and take a wideout,” one scout said. “You can get another wideout in the second or third, a Bryan Edwards, a Michael Pittman, a Lynn Bowden … it’s a real deep pool but it’s shallow at the top. There’s nobody that’s super elite, height-weight-speed freakish Julio, Calvin Johnson.”

Could someone such as Aiyuk, Edwards, even Quez Watkins emerge as the best in the class three years from now?

“Sure,” said an AFC evaluator. “It all depends on where they go, what the system is and who’s coaching them.”

1. CEEDEE LAMB, Oklahoma (6-1 ½, 198, 4.48, 1): Compared by one scout to Chad Johnson. “You throw the ball up, he’s coming down with it,” said one scout. “He’s got courage. He has better feet than (Justin) Jefferson. I had no idea he could run as good as he did. He’s a great kid on top of it. He’s a no-brainer.” A third-year junior from Richmond, Texas, he “catches the crap out of the ball,” according to another scout. “Great hands. He runs 4.48, which is way fast enough. He runs really good routes. He can go against press and off.” Finished with 173 receptions for 3,292 yards (19.0 average) and 32 touchdowns. “Just a competitive and strong guy,” said a third scout. “Almost an Anquan Boldin-type of receiver. I don’t think he’s a superstar. Lamb kind of maximizes what he has.” Jumps were pedestrian: vertical (34 ½ inches, 10-foot, 4-inch broad jump). So was the bench press (11 reps). “They scheme him up a lot,” said a fourth scout. “Bubble passes. He comes flying around in motion and catches it. It’s like watching the CFL. If you think you’re just going to line him up as a classic X or Z and he’s going to run a full route tree, no. He’s a work in progress, too.” Scored 12 on the 12-minute, 50-question Wonderlic intelligence test. “He’s wildly overrated,” said a fifth scout. “I don’t see an overwhelming trait. A lot of people point to his run after the catch, but I think you have to evaluate the guys trying to tackle him. He’s playing against some really bad Big 12 defenses. You’re just not going up against NFL people in that league. I’m just not a big believer in his skill set transitioning.”

2. JERRY JEUDY, Alabama (6-1, 193, 4.44, 1): The third-year junior is one scout’s “favorite player to watch in the draft because he’s a very accomplished, precise route runner. You don’t often see that in a draft prospect. He’s very advanced in the route-running.” Backed up in 2017 before starting the past two years. Finished with 159 catches for 2,742 (17.2) and 26 TDs. “He has more of that superstar potential than anyone,” said another scout. “Just a phenomenal route runner. Explosive. Just makes things happen. He had some drops in the LSU game but he came back after that and caught a touchdown and a 2-point conversion. So he’s a competitor and rises up.” Posted a 9 on the Wonderlic. “He was good in the interview with us,” a third scout said. “He really understands football … He’s lived life in the ultimate football playground. Speed merchants on the outside. Point guard at quarterback. 5-star offensive line. Draftable running back. He plays in the slot and was never pressed. He’s got a three-way go every route. If you draft him to be your No. 1 and you put him at X and they have a 6-1 corner rolled up in his face with a safety over the top and a linebacker buzzing from inside, life can be a heck of a lot different. All his game is instincts, getting in and out of breaks. It’ll knock your socks off against Southern Miss and New Mexico State. If you’re set everywhere and you just need a slot guy, he’s like a luxury pick.” From Deerfield Beach, Fla. “I think Calvin Ridley, his former teammate, was a little bit better of a route runner,” a fourth scout said. “He’ll be able to get open. He can really slam on the brakes and lose people. All the physical traits are good, but nothing’s elite.”

3. HENRY RUGGS, Alabama (5-11, 188, 4.24, 1): Ruggs, who’s from Montgomery, Ala., followed a similar career arc as Jeudy, backing up as a freshman and starting two years. “He has a chance to be special because he’s got the rare trait of speed,” said one scout. “But he’s not a one-trick pony. He’s not Ted Ginn, he’s not Darrius Heyward-Bey. He’s not just an outside-the-numbers guy. He’s super athletic (vertical jump of 42), he can run every route. He’s extremely tough. When you talk to the people in Tuscaloosa, he’s the most competitive kid in the program. You want to draft playmakers, and he’s got a chance to be a great playmaker. He’s a significantly better player coming out than Tyreek Hill was.” Finished with 98 catches for 1,716 (17.5) and 24 TDs. “Does that guy turn into Brandin Cooks or Ted Ginn?” said another scout. “Often, when teams try to make (speedsters) into more than they are, they struggle. He may turn into more than that. We’ll see. I don’t see Tyreek Hill.” Third-year junior with a Wonderlic of 20. “If you expect him to come in and be your No. 1 receiver I don’t see that,” said a third scout. “He was really a specialist in their offense where they designed certain plays for him … He is fast, but when people get on him you don’t see the same speed and route running. When he gets the ball, if he has a clear path, he can go. But he’s not a make-you-miss player. I don’t think he’s timid (in traffic). But he’s not a playmaker on the ball so when bodies are around him he doesn’t catch the ball. He’s a space-vertical linear route runner that needs space to catch the ball.”

4. JUSTIN JEFFERSON, LSU (6-1, 202, 4.47, 1-2): Jefferson surprised a segment of the scouting fraternity with his fast 40. “The big thing on him was going to be his speed because he’s such a smooth athlete,” said one scout. “His workout was really good. I don’t think he’ll ever be a Pro Bowl No. 1 guy, but he’s a really good No. 2.” He destroyed Oklahoma in the national semifinals not long before declaring as a third-year junior. “Polished, good hands, does most of his damage from the slot,” another scout said. “Good all-around skill set.” A two-year starter with 165 catches for 2,415 (14.6) and 24 TDs, a third scout says he’s “a solid No. 2, but I don’t see him as a good No. 2,” a third scout said. “I don’t see ultra explosiveness. I don’t see the test numbers. He had a lot of production, but the guys he plays on this level (NFL) will be able to take some of those opportunities away. He can make contested catches. I saw him go through a lot of zone and I saw a lot of clean, free access getting off the line. I want to see him beat more press. I didn’t see that.” Jefferson is from St. Rose, La and scored 19 on the Wonderlic.

 

Edited by massraider
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Quote

5. BRANDON AIYUK, Arizona State (5-11 ½, 205, 4.53): Aiyuk played in junior college for two seasons. He played second fiddle to N’Keal Harry in 2018 before breaking out in ’19. “He’s (5-11½) but he’s got an 80-inch wingspan, which is so disproportionately long for his body, so he’s really a big target for a smaller guy,” one scout said. “He has ranginess to him, yet he’s compact enough where his change of direction is great. He’s really explosive on tape. Even going back to his junior year, he only had 33 catches but just grading the flash plays he was better than N’Keal Harry.” He caught 65 balls as a senior, finishing with 98 for 1,666 (17.0) ands 11 TDs. “The first three or four games this year it was kind of whatever,” said another scout. “Then something clicked and he really turned it on. Their offensive line was horrible, so a lot of his deep routes didn’t really have time to develop because the quarterback (freshman Jayden Daniels) had to get the ball out. He became that quarterback’s best friend. He’s underrated. Early on, he comes in as your No. 1 punt returner and kickoff guy.” He has a Wonderlic score of 23. “Explosive with a 40-inch vert, excellent route runner, quickness,” said a third scout. “You could compare Greg Jennings to him. He’s better than Nelson Agholor.” From Reno, Nev.

6. TEE HIGGINS, Clemson (6-3 ½, 215, 4.58, 1-2): More than one personnel man identified him as having the best hands in the draft. “He’s an outside-only guy,” one scout said. “He’s a contested, 50-50 ball guy with strong hands and a big catching radius. He may need some help getting open, but he can catch it. He’s going to be covered a lot but he’s got the catching radius.” Arms measured a position-best 34 1/8 but hands were a small 9 ¼. “Just worried about the 40 time and his inability to separate,” said another scout. “They match up. He is really good down the field going up and getting the football. But getting off press, which you don’t see a lot at the college level, for a guy that isn’t real twitchy, he’ll have to win with size at the line of scrimmage. I think eventually he’ll be able to do it, but it’s going to be a transition for him.” Caught 135 passes for 2,448 (18.1) and 27 TDs. “Behind Ruggs, he’d be my next pick to bust,” a third scout said. “For a big, athletic kind of guy I don’t think he plays very strong. I don’t think he plays very sudden. And I don’t think he’s very tough. For the type of receiver he has to be, being that big guy making plays over people, I just don’t see that grit and toughness that you need. I wasn’t surprised at all (by the slow 40). He’s a buildup (speed) guy. Lot of that (production) was scheming him.” Wonderlic of 11. From Oak Ridge, Tenn.

7. BRYAN EDWARDS, South Carolina (6-2 ½, 212, no 40, 1-2): A four-year starter from Conway, S.C, “he excited me,” one scout said. “There’s a ceiling on him because I don’t think he’s a dynamic athlete. He’s a 4.5’s kind of guy, like a big, physical banger, a guy who will do dirty work. He can play big slot. It’s not like he’s lightning quick, but he’s fluid enough to be a good enough route runner. He’s a lot like Sterling Sharpe was except he doesn’t have the run after. You probably have to have some other pieces around him, guys that are more dynamic playmakers. But if you have that and you throw him in the mix then he’s interesting. I think he’s a great third-round pick.” His value was diminished by the broken foot he suffered while training in February, a meniscus tear in November, a concussion and sports hernia surgery in 2017. “He’s very physical, which I love about him, but it’s kind of counterproductive for him,” said another scout. “Durability is a big problem. I don’t think people give him credit for how athletic he is. I just think he does a lot of things that really matter for that position. He’s one of my favorite players.” Finished with 234 catches for 3,045 (13.0) and 22 TDs, surpassing ex-Gamecock Sharpe in several statistical categories. “He’s really lost steam because of the injury,” a third scout said. “He’s kind of your old school West Coast (receiver) catching slants, breaking tackles and go. There’s a lot of love for that guy in the league.” Edwards scored 28 on the Wonderlic and ranked second among the top 13 wideouts.

Eight. JALEN REAGOR, TCU (5-10 ½, 206, 4.46, 1-2): The third-year junior posted the best broad jump (11-6) of the top 25 wideouts. “Holy ####, he’s exciting,” said one scout. “His speed and run after … we’re looking for explosive playmakers. His punt returns were like holy hell. … His skill set is outstanding.” Finished with 148 catches for 2,248 (15.2) and 22 TDs. “He’s faster and quicker than CeeDee or (Justin) Jefferson,” said a second scout. “He’s tough, he’ll catch in the middle and he takes the ball away from people. But, if the ball’s not coming to him, he doesn’t do much. He doesn’t block. He hardly gets off the line of scrimmage sometimes. He is a talented, talented kid, but his body language and attitude, from film only, is bad. Kind of a reluctant football player. When the ball’s coming to him he’s full-speed.” He posted 13 on the Wonderlic. “He may be the most explosive guy coming out of this draft,” said a third scout. “Quick and aggressive, plays fast, quick hands. Can he be a slot receiver, too? I think he can.” From Waxahachie, Texas. Added a fourth scout: “If I want a jet sweep guy I want Reagor. That (guy) is fast.”

9. DENZEL MIMS, Baylor (6-3, 207, 4.38, 1-2): Among his many achievements at the combine was a position-best 6.66 3-cone. “The 6.6 3-cone is crazy for a guy with that lever system,” said one scout. “He can really go up and make acrobatic plays on the ball. He showed at the Senior Bowl he can beat press coverage and get open at the top of routes. He’s better than Lamb and maybe better than Jeudy. He’s bigger, faster, longer. You’ve got a chance to really hit on Denzel Mims.” Mims was a three-year starter for a Baylor program that has never had a receiver make it big in the NFL. “He’s big, but I see a finesse guy who dropped too many balls in traffic,” a second scout said. “He’s got the height, weight, speed. I’ve seen too many guys with traits like that come in and fail out, and he doesn’t play special teams. I don’t see that kind of dog in him.” A three-year starter, he finished with 186 receptions for 2,925 (15.7) and 28 TDs. “He’s got vertical speed, he does have tracking skills and he understands how to use his size in the red zone,” said a third scout. “He’s an outside receiver. He’s going to need a lot of work on how to run routes. He has tight shoulders. Better high-ball catcher than low-ball catcher. More of a 400-meter guy. He’s got inconsistent hands. He’s going to need work on how to get off press. He’s just got average body control. I got him in the second round.” He’s from Daingerfield, Texas and posted a Wonderlic score of 17.

2. CHASE CLAYPOOL, Notre Dame (6-4, 238, 4.44, 1-2):  [[Stuck him here. Scouts ranked him with the TE]Made 33 starts at WR over four seasons. Some teams are vociferous about him playing outside in the NFL. Others see him as a TE. “I think he’s big enough to be a tight end,” said one scout. “He’s every bit as big as Travis Kelce. He’s faster than Kelce. That’s who I saw.” His combine numbers were the best by a tight end. “I just don’t see the blocker at tight end,” a second scout said. “I don’t see how he holds up. People had the same conversation with Devin Funchess. You’re talking about the Jared Cook’s of the world. That’s just a different body type.” Finished with 150 catches for 2,159 (14.4) and 19 TDs. “The big ones that don’t make it, like Jonathan Baldwin, is because they’ve got a long ways to go because of (lack) of polish,” the second scout continued. “He’s not that far away. He’s fast, aggressive, has good hands. He was a dog on special teams. If you try to make him a multi-cut route runner, it’s going to be a problem. Let him be a big, fast, vertical, take-the-lid-off, contest-catch-winning guy. Mike Evans is a vertical route runner. I’m not calling this kid Mike Evans, but there are some comparable traits.” From Abbotsford, B.C., Claypool is the first Notre Dame signee from Canada since 1994. He posted a Wonderlic score of 27.

 

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10. LAVISKA SHENAULT, Colorado (6-0 ½, 227, 4.58, 2-3): Classic boom-or-bust prospect. “Mental and injury,” one scout replied when asked why Shenault was his choice to bust. “He’s always been the best guy on his team. You put him in one position and he’s just going to flounder. He’s head and shoulders in the bust factor above everyone else. I wouldn’t be surprised if he has a big fall.” Played split end for the Buffaloes but also did extensive damage as a ‘wildcat’ quarterback. “Little bit immature but, my God, is he big and powerful,” a second scout said. “His ’18 film was way better than his ’19 film. He’s a power guy, and those guys play.” He’s coming off of core muscle surgery in late February and also has had shoulder and turf toe surgery. “He’s kind of got some Cordarrelle Patterson to him in terms of his role,” a third scout said. “Not as explosive. With that body type, I don’t see A.J. Brown. A.J. made so many contested catches and was so productive for three years. A.J. was a receiver when he came out. This guy is an athlete. He’ll have to make a transition to a receiver, and I think he’s going to have a tough time.” Finished with 149 catches for 1,943 (13.0) and 10 TDs. “He’s not bad, just not a lot of personality,” said a fourth scout. “Kind of low-key.” Wonderlic of 14. Small hands (9). A third-year junior from DeSoto, Texas.

11. VAN JEFFERSON, Florida (6-1 ½, 200, no 40, 2-3): His father, Shawn, has been an NFL wide receivers coach for most of the past 20 years after a 13-year career in which he caught 470 passes for 7,023 (14.9) and 29 TDs. “Arguably he’s the best route runner in the class, and he’s got great hands and he’s mature and his dad is one of the best wide receivers coaches in the league (now with the Jets) and was a good player in his own right,” said one scout. “You knew he’d have some of that stuff just being a coach’s kid. Van is not just some polished kid, an overachiever. He’s got serious juice. He’s got a lot more speed than I thought he had. He can break people off and get open.” Jefferson started 41 of 48 games, finishing with 175 catches for 2,159 (12.3) and 16 TDs. He was unable to work at the combine after doctors discovered a foot fracture that required surgery. “He had a really good game against LSU,” another scout said. “Just kind of thin. Not really a speed guy. He’ll be a good backup. Your worry about Van is this guy is maxed out.” Wonderlic of 12. From Brentwood, Tenn. “Interesting guy,” said a third scout. “Terrible quarterback, terrible offense, but did really well at the Senior Bowl. He’s got size, really good quickness and route savvy. He can separate. He’s going to be a really good pro. He doesn’t have that explosive speed so he’s going to slide. This guy really knows how to play.”

12. MICHAEL PITTMAN, USC (6-4, 223, 4.52, 2-3): His father, Michael, played 11 years as an NFL running back gaining 5,627 yards (4.0 average) and scoring 25 TDs. “Doesn’t get a lot of love because he’s on the West Coast,” said one scout. “But he’s a big-body guy that belongs in the top-10 conversation (at wideout). Tough guy in traffic.” Started 30 of 48 games over four seasons, catching 171 passes for 2,519 (14.7) and 19 TDs. “Same type of guy as Bryan Edwards,” a second scout said. “Makes most of his catches in traffic. Strong after the catch. He surprised me with his speed. He and (Tee) Higgins are basically the same guy. Higgins played with a better team. I remember Pittman’s father in the Super Bowl when he played hard and tough even though the Raiders got beat badly. The son has that type of attitude as well. It’s going to be tough to stop him.” He led the leading wideouts with a Wonderlic of 29 and hails from Woodland Hills, Calif.

13. KJ HAMLER, Penn State (5-8 ½, 178, no 40, 3): Third-year sophomore. “He’s small, but his speed is rare,” said one scout. “He is electric after the catch. He’s a human joystick. He has home-run ability. You’re going to have to scheme him a little bit to get him the ball.” One scout said he had the worst hands in the draft. “He’s like a 50-50 guy,” said a second scout. “He probably has the best chance to bust because he can’t catch. He can stretch the field. He played tough. He went up for balls. The thing that killed me is he can be a return guy, but he just didn’t perform, which is weird. He was just average in every sense of the word.” Finished with 98 catches for 1,658 (16.9) and 13 TDs. “He would run across the formation and he wouldn’t even look and the quarterback is looking at him,” said another scout. “After seeing that three, four, five times, something was up with this kid. He’s a slot receiver. To play outside I think would be ridiculous. He is tiny. Third round.” From Pontiac, Mich, with a Wonderlic of 15.

OTHERS, in order: Lynn Bowden, Kentucky; Quez Watkins, Southern Mississippi; Gabriel Davis, Central Florida; Devin Duvernay, Texas; Isaiah Hodgins, Oregon State; Isaiah Coulter, Rhode Island; James Proche, SMU; Darnell Mooney, Tulane; Collin Johnson, Texas; K.J. Hill, Ohio State; Dezmon Patmon, Washington State; John Hightower, Boise State; Donovan Peoples-Jones, Michigan; Joe Reed, Virginia; Antonio Gandy-Golden, Liberty; Trishton Jackson, Syracuse; Quintez Cephus, Wisconsin; Tyler Johnson, Minnesota.

 

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Want: Jeudy, Lamb, Jefferson, Ruggs, Reagor, Mims, Van Jefferson, Lynn Bowden, Tyler Johnson, Duvernay

Don't want: Higgins, Pittman, Aiyuk, Edwards, Hamler, Shenault (like him, but he's unfinished, needs manufactured touches. We need polished). 

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