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2020 Dynasty offseason shark moves (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter kittenmittens
- Start date
zamboni
Footballguy
Too late to sell DJ. I could actually see him as a potential buy if he reunites with Arians in Tampa, but that's about it.
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barackdhouse
Footballguy
I wouldn't mind buying OBJ. I feel like we just saw his floor and that the situation can only get better there.
As for Higbee and Everett, it's gotta be Higbee. I really thought Everett has won the job before he got hurt, and then Higbee went beserker. I think it's his job to lose now. Everett might still hurt his ceiling if he stays a Ram, but if you can get Higbee, by all means. I consider myself very lucky to have snagged him off waivers on two squads. I don't imagine anyone is selling. But you never know.
As for Higbee and Everett, it's gotta be Higbee. I really thought Everett has won the job before he got hurt, and then Higbee went beserker. I think it's his job to lose now. Everett might still hurt his ceiling if he stays a Ram, but if you can get Higbee, by all means. I consider myself very lucky to have snagged him off waivers on two squads. I don't imagine anyone is selling. But you never know.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
I'd definitely buy both these guys, if the price is right. I don't imagine anyone is really selling McLaurin right now, though. Why don't you like him in particular? Is it mostly Haskins? Cause you know......
zamboni
Footballguy
I tend to agree, although I don't think we'll see the gawdy numbers we saw with the Giants - and it's been four years now since his last big year. Eli used to heavily pepper OBJ with targets and I don't see the same inclination - nor ability to sustain an offense - with Mayfield. Plus, Landry soaks up a good amount of targets as well.
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Denver724
Footballguy
MAC_32
Footballguy
Both Jones and Williams are free agents after 2020 and this RB class is loaded. I'm not expecting them to use a #1 on a RB, but I think there's a good chance they do sometime on day 2. I think there's a good chance Jones retains (most of?) his role next season regardless, but beyond?
Next season > future seasons, but if I have the depth then I'd explore my options.
cloppbeast
Footballguy
I like Tyrod as a real life QB, but not one throwing to my ff wr. Especially one who doesn't get real open. Philip Rivers is really the perfect QB for Williams, willing to just toss it up and let him make a play.MAC_32 said:
Cjw_55106
Footballguy
That's a logical reply and different than Jones' age.Both Jones and Williams are free agents after 2020 and this RB class is loaded. I'm not expecting them to use a #1 on a RB, but I think there's a good chance they do sometime on day 2. I think there's a good chance Jones retains (most of?) his role next season regardless, but beyond?
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Also I'm not sure how being "stuck" with Jameis was a bad thing considering he finished with a 86-1,333-9 statline in 15 games. I'd be worried that Jameis wouldn't be around next year personally.
cloppbeast
Footballguy
JohnnyU
Footballguy
I think he is. I've never seen anything from him that would make me say, I wish he was on my team.
grateful zed
Footballguy
big fan of this if your team is in a position to win.
this year is the year where draft picks will be overvalued.
but, you dont want to miss on a stud.
i will likely be trading down or out of this years draft.
kittenmittens
Footballguy
This is exactly why you sell them. Jones is 25. It's January and next year is his age 26 season. Age 26 is past time to get out of a high value RB. Also contract situation as mentioned above.
The key is to get out before other owners start to devalue based on age. If you wait until WRs are 28 it is too late, at least in most of my leagues.
Basically, people on here telling me I'm crazy for selling these guys is why you sell them. Right now there are strong buyers. In a year that may not be the case, especially if anything at all negative happens to them next year.
This thread is about being ahead of things, and sometimes we will miss on that, but a lot of this is easy to anticipate if you pay attention.
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Cjw_55106
Footballguy
He wont be 26 until next season is almost over.
Your theory may be good, but I cant help but think you sell plenty of players long before they lose value and likely have prevented a few titles for yourself along the way.
kittenmittens
Footballguy
Is Kupp actually an elite talent? Or is he a very good zone beater in the right situation?
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kittenmittens
Footballguy
Possibly, it's definitely a risk. I don't just dump these guys, i'm really saying sell for a comparable younger asset, hopefully somebody less proven but more talented. It's worth a shot.
Part of the point is that if nobody disagreed with me, selling for high value wouldn't be possible
. That means I have to do it before everyone else starts to agree.
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grateful zed
Footballguy
ah, the old 'shell' game.
MAC_32
Footballguy
Right, Jameis is a bad quarterback, but he is great in our game for his WR's. He's on the money 60..70...80(?) percent of the time. If anything him being a total disaster on the other plays with little in between is a good thing for his WR's. They keep needing more points, so they have to keep passing.
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
hes an elite talent at scoring points when he is one the field....he has madr brandin cooks irrelevant...
MAC_32
Footballguy
Like any strategy, it doesn't always work but I manage my team's similarly and think the %'s come out in my favor. You're trying to anticipate the downward slide on the bell curve (or cliff) to get younger players that you expect to develop into the quality of player you're selling. Sometimes I'll ride the player all the way down the curve (or in a case like Andrew Luck, get the rug pulled out from under), but as long as I have someone to start in there place I'll test the market. I don't think I ever have the best team with this approach but I think I'm usually in the top 3 or so and have better depth, which fits this game because I think December success is heavily influenced by luck.
kittenmittens
Footballguy
I would contend that is not necessarily the case if he changes teams. He is really good at what he does, but he's not the kind of elite talent who is immune to situation changes IMO.
He was widely considered to be the best route runner of his draft class, he will be taking that skillset with him no matter which team he is on.
ShamrockPride
Footballguy
What do you guys think of Hollywood Brown and Robby Anderson?
I'm thinking those are some guys you could get at a relatively cheaper price that could hold sneaky high upside. Will have to see if Jets take a WR in the first though.
I'm thinking those are some guys you could get at a relatively cheaper price that could hold sneaky high upside. Will have to see if Jets take a WR in the first though.
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Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Anderson is an UFA who said he will not give a hometown discount to the Jets so he could very well be gone. The Eagles tried to trade for him at the deadline last season so it wouldn't be surprising if they took a run at him. I think he's a good target.
Flying Elvis
Footballguy
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
yeah I have a stacked dyno team in one league, was 11-0 at one point, ran into the guy who was starting jamies and k.drake…..2nd place for me!
barackdhouse
Footballguy
I absolutely agree about being ahead of the curve but I've won two dynasty championships in a row in my 96 team mega league, with Jones at RB. There is no reason for me to not keep him and go for the 3peat. There is something to be said for riding a hot hand until it shows otherwise. Even if you end up losing a little value in the end. Or, the player continues to perform at a high level for many (or some) years beyond the typical average cliff.
But to your point, it is very nice to be ahead of the curve and maximize franchise value. I think it may be too early for Jones. I wouldn't call it crazy, though, and you're right there is a market for him. Nothing wrong with that.
voiceofunreason
Footballguy
barackdhouse
Footballguy
voiceofunreason
Footballguy
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
cloppbeast
Footballguy
I'm buying OBJ, I don't care what anybody says.
grateful zed
Footballguy
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Zyphros
Footballguy
Talent wise sure, situation's change quickly sure.
Guys that are continually passed team to team usually don't keep succeeding.
I'm pretty much done with him.
cloppbeast
Footballguy
Zyphros
Footballguy
For now, could easily change with all the reports mid season of him wanting out, I'm expecting another team change in his career.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
8/27/2018: Signed a six-year, $103.46 million contract. The deal includes $65 million guaranteed.
No other team wll take this on and he isn't a free agent until 2024. He's not going anywhere.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Nothing you're saying is wrong, and if you're looking to maximize value then there's not much argument against it. Sometimes however production is worth more than value and you don't HAVE to trade a guy at peak trade value just because it's his peak trade value.
I'm mostly referring to Jones here, as the problem with him is that his peak trade value doesn't really match up to his age/production. He's a 24 year old that just finished as the #2 overall and he's treated as an FF RB2 who you probably can't get much more than a mid 1st for right now.
I do also think he has more of a chance to increase in value than most 25 year old RBs because another year of sustaining his "unsustainable" production will likely help his value more than him being almost 26 will hurt it. Of course you risk having the rug pulled out from under you in the interim.
If you're moving Jones right now, what are you looking to get back?
MAC_32
Footballguy
JohnnyU
Footballguy
kittenmittens
Footballguy
Im looking for 2nd or 3rd round startup value. DJ Moore and Juju would be my prime targets for him. Both are close enough that it shouldn't take a ton more on the Jones side based on DTC and DLF values.
I might also use him to upgrade to a big time stud. Like Jones plus what it takes for Barkley or something.
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Birdie048
Footballguy
Well said. But I think the biggest knock on A Jones is the reproducability of the 16 TDs. We all know this is a game dependent on opportunities and this was a high # for most RBs. He scored a TD every 15 carries and he shared RB duties for part of the time (J Williams averaged 8 carries/game) Can that be sustained with A Rodgers passing offense? This might be the main reason why Jones is valued low end RB1 or high RB2. TRUST. Can we Trust him to score >10 TD's in 2020? I am not sure.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Jones is an interesting case. Not sure anyone would give up Moore or Juju for the 24 year old that just finished as the #2 RB. Mid-December ADP is the most recent ADP I can find and that has Jones at 3.6 with Juju at 2.1 and Moore at 2.5.
In one of the most bizarre use cases I can think of, Aaron Jones' ADP is almost lower now than it was in startup drafts before the season, as a relatively young breakout RB that just finished with 1500+ yards, 50 catches, and 19 TDs.
I think the latter option (package him plus something for a more reliable stud) may be the only real option to get anywhere near reasonable value out of him. Mid December ADP had him in the same range as guys like Tyler Lockett, Gurley, Montgomery, and ARob.
Sure, but he still had 1550 yards and 50 catches. You'd have to knock him all the way down to 4 touchdowns to make him a RB2 alongside those numbers.
Jones has also been quietly scoring at this rate for 2 years now. Once every 15 touches in 2019, and once every 17 touches in 2018. Even as a rookie it was once every 22 touches.
He'd have to drop all the way to once every 32 touches to get down to single digit TDs with the number of touches he got in 2019. And even at that point it would have left him as RB8 just ahead of the much more highly valued Nick Chubb.
You'd have to drop it all the way to once every 71 touches to get his TD total low enough to make him a fantasy RB2.
kittenmittens
Footballguy
Yeah it might not work out depending on your league mates. I wouldn't sell just to sell, need to get something very good coming back.
Most of my leagues are superflex, and Jones is really close to Moore and Juju in the dynasty value calculators. I think you can get something done if you sweeten it a bit.
