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kittenmittens

2020 Dynasty offseason shark moves

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1 hour ago, wgoldsph said:

Some off the top of my head

J Hurd sf wr - in the ideal Shanahan offense every skill position player can play every spot on the field.  Hurd was a also a rb in college and works well within that mindset.

 

T Hill no qb - Payton has said this guy is the next Steve Young and while that might never happen there's always the 1% chance that he becomes next year's Lamar Jackson if brees decides to hang them up and Bridgewater moves on.  For what essentially costs a ww add he's worth the pickup.

 

K Hunt cle rb - at worst you're getting a weekly flex rb.  At best you're getting a rb with top 5 upside.  His price should be around that flex rb spot so buy low.

 

S Barkley nyg rb - your best spot to buy low was mid-season, but there's still a chance here to get him for less than the three 1sts+ it would have taken you last year.  If you can, do it.

 

C Godwin tb wr - a size/speed RAC monster, he would excell with a qb who's accurate, but even if he's still stuck with Jamis there's going to be more years like the one that just ended.  Play up the Evans angle and try to get him cheap.

 

Try to get Godwin cheap? Best of luck with that 

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buys:

QB: 

Stidham. Everyone is discounting him. Glad to see at least 1 other person on board. 

RB: Mixon. When his OL gets healthy and his QB improves, he could be incredible. 

Guice. Rivera is going to be very good for him

Henderson. Find out if his owner has given up. He still has talent. 

WR: 

Lazard is a good call

Williams absolutely

Isabella. Everyone else will buy Butler, go get the better wr. 

Gallup. I see him as a top 10 wr next year provided cooper walks. 

TE:

Ian Thomas. obvious reasons

Warring. Somehow a lot of people have forgotten about his potential it seems. 

Cameron Brate I actually like given he could be a FA thks year or starting if TB trades Howard. He's dirt cheap

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Posted (edited)

sells:

QB: Wentz

RB: L. Bell, DJ, Conner, Mack

WR: OBJ, Golladay, McLaurin, Allen

TE: none

Edited by Dr. Dan

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Dr. Dan said:

sells:

RB: L. Bell, DJ, Conner, Mack

 

Too late to sell DJ. I could actually see him as a potential buy if he reunites with Arians in Tampa,  but that's about it.

Edited by zamboni
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I wouldn't mind buying OBJ. I feel like we just saw his floor and that the situation can only get better there.

As for Higbee and Everett, it's gotta be Higbee. I really thought Everett has won the job before he got hurt, and then Higbee went beserker. I think it's his job to lose now. Everett might still hurt his ceiling if he stays a Ram, but if you can get Higbee, by all means. I consider myself very lucky to have snagged him off waivers on two squads. I don't imagine anyone is selling. But you never know. 

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1 hour ago, Dr. Dan said:

sells:

QB: Wentz

RB: L. Bell, DJ, Conner, Mack

WR: OBJ, Golladay, McLaurin, Allen

TE: none

I'd definitely buy both these guys, if the price is right. I don't imagine anyone is really selling McLaurin right now, though. Why don't you like him in particular? Is it mostly Haskins? Cause you know......

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, barackdhouse said:

I wouldn't mind buying OBJ. I feel like we just saw his floor and that the situation can only get better there.

I tend to agree, although I don't think we'll see the gawdy numbers we saw with the Giants - and it's been four years now since his last big year. Eli used to heavily pepper OBJ with targets and I don't see the same inclination - nor ability to sustain an offense - with Mayfield. Plus, Landry soaks up a good amount of targets as well.

Edited by zamboni

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On 1/5/2020 at 1:58 PM, kittenmittens said:

Sell Golladay, Kupp, Aaron Jones, and other players other owners think are younger than they are. 

How old do people think they are? The receivers arent close to starting the downhill slide and Jones is 25. 

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11 hours ago, RushHour said:

Try to get Godwin cheap? Best of luck with that 

I just traded Godwin and Parris Campbell for Michael Thomas. 

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1 hour ago, Cjw_55106 said:

How old do people think they are? The receivers arent close to starting the downhill slide and Jones is 25. 

Both Jones and Williams are free agents after 2020 and this RB class is loaded. I'm not expecting them to use a #1 on a RB, but I think there's a good chance they do sometime on day 2. I think there's a good chance Jones retains (most of?) his role next season regardless, but beyond? :shrug: Next season > future seasons, but if I have the depth then I'd explore my options.

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I'm not sure I'm on the sell Kupp train at this point but what are opinions if you can land 1.1? 

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1 hour ago, Cjw_55106 said:

How old do people think they are? The receivers arent close to starting the downhill slide and Jones is 25. 

Kupp has at least 3-4 years of his prime yet. That's why I'm not sure I like the idea of selling. I have the 1.1 guy interested in Kupp but I'm not sure I want to prolong my win now window any more than I have to... Trading Kupp away would do that. It was clear LAR was better when he was involved... if we can see it surely McVay can. 

 

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22 hours ago, MAC_32 said:

The QB market is going to be busy in March and father time finally defeated Rivers this year. I wouldn't dismiss the Taylor bridging to a rookie scenario, but I'm also not sure that'd be a downgrade to 2019 Rivers. And that's probably the worst case scenario for San Diego skill position players.

I like Tyrod as a real life QB, but not one throwing to my ff wr. Especially one who doesn't get real open. Philip Rivers is really the perfect QB for Williams, willing to just toss it up and let him make a play.

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11 minutes ago, MAC_32 said:

Both Jones and Williams are free agents after 2020 and this RB class is loaded. I'm not expecting them to use a #1 on a RB, but I think there's a good chance they do sometime on day 2. I think there's a good chance Jones retains (most of?) his role next season regardless, but beyond? :shrug: Next season > future seasons, but if I have the depth then I'd explore my options.

That's a logical reply and different than Jones' age. 

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24 minutes ago, cloppbeast said:

I like Tyrod as a real life QB, but not one throwing to my ff wr. Especially one who doesn't get real open. Philip Rivers is really the perfect QB for Williams, willing to just toss it up and let him make a play.

I can't say that I like him as a real life QB or a fantasy QB.  

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12 hours ago, RushHour said:

Try to get Godwin cheap? Best of luck with that 

Also I'm not sure how being "stuck" with Jameis was a bad thing considering he finished with a 86-1,333-9 statline in 15 games. I'd be worried that Jameis wouldn't be around next year personally.

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27 minutes ago, JohnnyU said:

I can't say that I like him as a real life QB or a fantasy QB.  

Tyrod's not so bad. 

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4 minutes ago, cloppbeast said:

Tyrod's not so bad. 

I think he is. I've never seen anything from him that would make me say, I wish he was on my team.

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15 hours ago, fredsavage said:

Aging studs can be had. Use 2020 draft capital to buy older WRs: Julio, OBJ, Evans, Adams. I think the luster of this class will help to get some really favorable deals done.

big fan of this if your team is in a position to win.

this year is the year where draft picks will be overvalued.

but, you dont want to miss on a stud.

i will likely be trading down or out of this years draft.

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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, Cjw_55106 said:

How old do people think they are? The receivers arent close to starting the downhill slide and Jones is 25. 

This is exactly why you sell them.  Jones is 25.  It's January and next year is his age 26 season.  Age 26 is past time to get out of a high value RB.  Also contract situation as mentioned above. 

The key is to get out before other owners start to devalue based on age.  If you wait until WRs are 28 it is too late, at least in most of my leagues. 

Basically, people on here telling me I'm crazy for selling these guys is why you sell them. Right now there are strong buyers. In a year that may not be the case, especially if anything at all negative happens to them next year. 

This thread is about being ahead of things, and sometimes we will miss on that, but a lot of this is easy to anticipate if you pay attention. 

 

Edited by kittenmittens
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5 minutes ago, kittenmittens said:

This is exactly why you sell them.  Jones is 25.  It's January and next year is his age 26 season.  Age 26 is past time to get out of a high value RB.  Also contract situation as mentioned above. 

The key is to get out before other owners start to devalue based on age.  If you wait until WRs are 28 it is too late, at least in most of my leagues. 

Basically, people on here telling me I'm crazy for selling these guys is why you sell them. Right now there are strong buyers. In a year that may not be the case, especially if anything at all negative happens to them next year. 

This thread is about being ahead of things, and sometimes we will on that, but a lot of this is easy to anticipate if you pay attention. 

 

He wont be 26 until next season is almost over.

Your theory may be good, but I cant help but think you sell plenty of players long before they lose value and likely have prevented a few titles for yourself along the way. 

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Dr. Dan said:

Kupp has at least 3-4 years of his prime yet. That's why I'm not sure I like the idea of selling. I have the 1.1 guy interested in Kupp but I'm not sure I want to prolong my win now window any more than I have to... Trading Kupp away would do that. It was clear LAR was better when he was involved... if we can see it surely McVay can. 

 

Is Kupp actually an elite talent? Or is he a very good zone beater in the right situation?

Edited by kittenmittens
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Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, Cjw_55106 said:

He wont be 26 until next season is almost over.

Your theory may be good, but I cant help but think you sell plenty of players long before they lose value and likely have prevented a few titles for yourself along the way. 

Possibly, it's definitely a risk.  I don't just dump these guys, i'm really saying sell for a comparable younger asset, hopefully somebody less proven but more talented.  It's worth a shot. 

Part of the point is that if nobody disagreed with me, selling for high value wouldn't be possible :).  That means I have to do it before everyone else starts to agree. 

Edited by kittenmittens

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2 hours ago, Dr. Octopus said:

Also I'm not sure how being "stuck" with Jameis was a bad thing considering he finished with a 86-1,333-9 statline in 15 games. I'd be worried that Jameis wouldn't be around next year personally.

Right, Jameis is a bad quarterback, but he is great in our game for his WR's. He's on the money 60..70...80(?) percent of the time. If anything him being a total disaster on the other plays with little in between is a good thing for his WR's. They keep needing more points, so they have to keep passing.

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1 hour ago, kittenmittens said:

Is Kupp actually an elite talent? Or is he a very good zone beater in the right situation?

He's elite at what he does, that's all that really matters.

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1 hour ago, kittenmittens said:

Is Kupp actually an elite talent? Or is he a very good zone beater in the right situation?

hes an elite talent at scoring points when he is one the field....he has madr brandin cooks irrelevant...

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1 hour ago, Cjw_55106 said:

He wont be 26 until next season is almost over.

Your theory may be good, but I cant help but think you sell plenty of players long before they lose value and likely have prevented a few titles for yourself along the way. 

Like any strategy, it doesn't always work but I manage my team's similarly and think the %'s come out in my favor. You're trying to anticipate the downward slide on the bell curve (or cliff) to get younger players that you expect to develop into the quality of player you're selling. Sometimes I'll ride the player all the way down the curve (or in a case like Andrew Luck, get the rug pulled out from under), but as long as I have someone to start in there place I'll test the market. I don't think I ever have the best team with this approach but I think I'm usually in the top 3 or so and have better depth, which fits this game because I think December success is heavily influenced by luck. 

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6 minutes ago, tangfoot said:

He's elite at what he does, that's all that really matters.

I would contend that is not necessarily the case if he changes teams.   He is really good at what he does, but he's not the kind of elite talent who is immune to situation changes IMO. 

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9 minutes ago, kittenmittens said:

I would contend that is not necessarily the case if he changes teams.   He is really good at what he does, but he's not the kind of elite talent who is immune to situation changes IMO. 

He was widely considered to be the best route runner of his draft class, he will be taking that skillset with him no matter which team he is on.

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Posted (edited)

What do you guys think of Hollywood Brown and Robby Anderson?

I'm thinking those are some guys you could get at a relatively cheaper price that could hold sneaky high upside. Will have to see if Jets take a WR in the first though.

Edited by ShamrockPride

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24 minutes ago, ShamrockPride said:

What do you guys think of Hollywood Brown and Robby Anderson?

I'm thinking those are some guys you could get at a relatively cheaper price that could hold sneaky high upside. Will have to see if Jets take a WR in the first though.

Anderson is an UFA who said he will not give a hometown discount to the Jets so he could very well be gone. The Eagles tried to trade for him at the deadline last season so it wouldn't be surprising if they took a run at him. I think he's a good target.

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2 hours ago, MAC_32 said:

Like any strategy, it doesn't always work but I manage my team's similarly and think the %'s come out in my favor. You're trying to anticipate the downward slide on the bell curve (or cliff) to get younger players that you expect to develop into the quality of player you're selling. Sometimes I'll ride the player all the way down the curve (or in a case like Andrew Luck, get the rug pulled out from under), but as long as I have someone to start in there place I'll test the market. I don't think I ever have the best team with this approach but I think I'm usually in the top 3 or so and have better depth, which fits this game because I think December success is heavily influenced by luck. 

yeah I have a stacked dyno team in one league, was 11-0 at one point, ran into the guy who was starting jamies and k.drake…..2nd place for me!

 

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4 hours ago, kittenmittens said:

This is exactly why you sell them.  Jones is 25.  It's January and next year is his age 26 season.  Age 26 is past time to get out of a high value RB.  Also contract situation as mentioned above. 

The key is to get out before other owners start to devalue based on age.  If you wait until WRs are 28 it is too late, at least in most of my leagues. 

Basically, people on here telling me I'm crazy for selling these guys is why you sell them. Right now there are strong buyers. In a year that may not be the case, especially if anything at all negative happens to them next year. 

This thread is about being ahead of things, and sometimes we will miss on that, but a lot of this is easy to anticipate if you pay attention. 

 

I absolutely agree about being ahead of the curve but I've won two dynasty championships in a row in my 96 team mega league, with Jones at RB. There is no reason for me to not keep him and go for the 3peat. There is something to be said for riding a hot hand until it shows otherwise. Even if you end up losing a little value in the end. Or, the player continues to perform at a high level for many (or some) years beyond the typical average cliff. 

But to your point, it is very nice to be ahead of the curve and maximize franchise value. I think it may be too early for Jones. I wouldn't call it crazy, though, and you're right there is a market for him. Nothing wrong with that. 

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16 hours ago, barackdhouse said:

I wouldn't mind buying OBJ. I feel like we just saw his floor and that the situation can only get better there.

As for Higbee and Everett, it's gotta be Higbee. I really thought Everett has won the job before he got hurt, and then Higbee went beserker. I think it's his job to lose now. Everett might still hurt his ceiling if he stays a Ram, but if you can get Higbee, by all means. I consider myself very lucky to have snagged him off waivers on two squads. I don't imagine anyone is selling. But you never know. 

I was offered Isabella. 50/50 on it.

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:blackdot: 

 

 

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5 minutes ago, cloppbeast said:

I'm buying OBJ, I don't care what anybody says. 

you are CRAZY !!!

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15 hours ago, cloppbeast said:

I'm buying OBJ, I don't care what anybody says. 

Talent wise sure, situation's change quickly sure.

Guys that are continually passed team to team usually don't keep succeeding.  

I'm pretty much done with him. 

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23 minutes ago, Zyphros said:

Talent wise sure, situation's change quickly sure.

Guys that are continually passed team to team usually don't keep succeeding.  

He's still on the Browns, no?

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2 minutes ago, cloppbeast said:

He's still on the Browns, no?

For now, could easily change with all the reports mid season of him wanting out, I'm expecting another team change in his career. 

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2 minutes ago, Zyphros said:

For now, could easily change with all the reports mid season of him wanting out, I'm expecting another team change in his career. 

8/27/2018: Signed a six-year, $103.46 million contract. The deal includes $65 million guaranteed.

No other team wll take this on and he isn't a free agent until 2024.  He's not going anywhere.

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23 hours ago, kittenmittens said:

This is exactly why you sell them.  Jones is 25.  It's January and next year is his age 26 season.  Age 26 is past time to get out of a high value RB.  Also contract situation as mentioned above. 

The key is to get out before other owners start to devalue based on age.  If you wait until WRs are 28 it is too late, at least in most of my leagues. 

Basically, people on here telling me I'm crazy for selling these guys is why you sell them. Right now there are strong buyers. In a year that may not be the case, especially if anything at all negative happens to them next year. 

This thread is about being ahead of things, and sometimes we will miss on that, but a lot of this is easy to anticipate if you pay attention. 

 

Nothing you're saying is wrong, and if you're looking to maximize value then there's not much argument against it.  Sometimes however production is worth more than value and you don't HAVE to trade a guy at peak trade value just because it's his peak trade value.

I'm mostly referring to Jones here, as the problem with him is that his peak trade value doesn't really match up to his age/production.  He's a 24 year old that just finished as the #2 overall and he's treated as an FF RB2 who you probably can't get much more than a mid 1st for right now.

I do also think he has more of a chance to increase in value than most 25 year old RBs because another year of sustaining his "unsustainable" production will likely help his value more than him being almost 26 will hurt it.  Of course you risk having the rug pulled out from under you in the interim.

If you're moving Jones right now, what are you looking to get back?

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58 minutes ago, JohnnyU said:

8/27/2018: Signed a six-year, $103.46 million contract. The deal includes $65 million guaranteed.

No other team wll take this on and he isn't a free agent until 2024.  He's not going anywhere.

It's $0 in dead cap if he's cut at any time for the duration of the contract.

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20 minutes ago, MAC_32 said:

It's $0 in dead cap if he's cut at any time for the duration of the contract.

How is that?  Link?

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