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2020 Dynasty offseason shark moves (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter kittenmittens
- Start date
JohnnyU
Footballguy
MAC_32
Footballguy
My problem with spotrac is they steal from overthecap. Jason has intentionally put false info out there before just to catch them in the act. I would appreciate a second source to cross reference vs overthecap, but since spotrac has no credibility I wont use them.
grateful zed
Footballguy
xenith
Footballguy
Country Boy
Footballguy
I'm not sure about buying, but I sure don't want to sell. I paid big $ for him in our Dynasty Free Agent auction last year so selling him no means I would have to take 50 cents on the dollar. So probably the best strategy for him is to hold.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
So because one site is taking their data from another site and putting that information into a format that is better than the source they took it from you won't use it?MAC_32 said:
I have no dog in this fight, I just want accurate information formatted in a clear and concise way and I think sportrac does a better job of that than overthecap does.
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MAC_32
Footballguy
I can accept well intended mistakes. They lifted false data then posted it without verifying its accuracy. For me, that's a deal breaker. You're free to do whatever you want to do.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
So is your issue more about sportracs data validation method? Or that they took the data from another service without first validating it?
MAC_32
Footballguy
cloppbeast
Footballguy
So what I'm hearing then, he's not guaranteed to stay in Cleveland. Even better.Dr. Dan said:
BigTex
Don't mess with Texas
Agreed, I’m not selling he’s too talented. I won the championship this year with him on the bench for most of the year. I plan to win again but with him in my starting rotation.
Tex
Country Boy
Footballguy
Our league is a little different format. We assign contract years to players when we draft or secure them through our free agent auction (Max of 35 years for active roster). I assigned 4 years to OBJ when I got him in free agency so I only have him for 3 years. Not concerned with productivity level past 30. I do look at whether the players value would allow me to move him at the end of the contract period. I have Zeke for one more year and have the possibility of moving him for a mid 1st and Franchise Cash (what we use for bidding in the auction). That's the one that is keeping me up at night.
And btw, I played OBJ most of the year expecting him to wake up. Picked up Drake when one of our teams cut him for contract year cap purposes and started him in the playoffs instead. The team that cut Drake was the team I played in the finals (my son-in-law). The trophy looks great on my mantle!
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
What does he need to figure out? He was one of the best WRs in the league prior to last year and Cleveland was a dumpster fire overall.
Birdie048
Footballguy
Thanks for the info. I did not look past 2019 - my bad. I guess I should have looked at more than the fact I tried to trade for him but lost out and was wondering why he is on the market now. So there is more consistency on his side than I expected or put into my thinking.FreeBaGeL said:
Country Boy
Footballguy
All indications are the Cowboys will at least use the one time Transition tag on Cooper.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
One of the most underrated 2nd year QBs I can think of.
Dude was on pace to finish with 4000 passing yards, 400 rushing yards, and 35 total TDs as a rookie and no one seemed to notice. And it's not like we're extrapolating out 4 games to 16 here. That's based on 12 starts.
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
kittenmittens
Footballguy
wgoldsph
Footballguy
The majority of those stats were put up against 4 terrible defenses. The other eight games against average / good defenses were pedestrian at best.
Slow your roll.
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
while we should temper expectations, the NYG def should remain terrible too, adding to shoot out possibilities. I think he is a perfect re-draft backup qb with upside if you wait on your backup. round 14 special
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Outside of the really elite guys that's kind of how fantasy football typically works. For instance Aaron Rodgers threw 12 TDs in three games against the Raiders/Chiefs/Giants and was QB31 by PPG in the other 13.
Also what exactly is your definition of "terrible"? Jones' big games were against the teams that gave up the 16th, 23rd, 24th, 28th most fantasy points to QBs. Not exactly murderer's row but in a 16 game season you are going to be facing a bunch of teams in that area of the team defense rankings.
If you take out Mahomes' games against the 19th, 20th, 27th, and 28th ranked pass defenses that leaves him as QB22 in ppg in the rest of his games.
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wgoldsph
Footballguy
This is where I think his value is. A strong qb2
Rodgers had a bad year across the board by his standards and malhomes played most of the year bothered by nagging injuries.
Prorating out Danny Jones stats and saying that's what he's good for - as was done above - is really what I'm arguing against here. Could he end up being elite if he cuts down on the turnovers? Sure. Will he next year? I'd make a big bet against it.
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
I'm generally a dumpster diver playing in leagues with deep/very deep rosters, so caveat emptor, YMMV, different strokes and all that. But...
- Rodney Anderson, Bryce Love, Jerrick McKinnon (for the same reason)
- OBJ, David Njoku (for the same reason)
- Ian Thomas, Dawson Knox, Mo Alie-Cox (for the same reason)
- Marcus Mariota and Nick Foles (in 2QB or Superflex leagues)
- DJ Moore if you can get someone to flip him for a rookie pick (any rookie pick)
- AJ Green if you're a contender and his owner wants out
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
DJ Moore is a WR in Carolina. He's awesome. If someone happens to like a rookie pick better than DJ Moore you should do that.
Tonycarpenter
Footballguy
I like a lot of the OPs moves and thoughts and read page 1 and liked a lot of comments. I think it largely depends on your team roster.
2QB league PPR 26 roster 2 IR start 2QB 3WR, 2RB 1TE, 1W/T 1/W/R 1W/R/T 1K/1TD 2IDP. all TD 6pt. bonus tiers: Just finished year 2 of dynasty league and lost in the final.
QBs: Watson, Wilson, Mayfield, Grier
WR: Hopkins, CGodwin, AJBrown, CKirk, MBoykin, HButler, BPerriman, ParrisCampbell,
RB: Elliott, CHubb, Ronald Jones, Guice, Kerryon Johnson, MBoone,
TE: Kelce, Engram, HHenry, Goedert, IrvSmith,
K: Crosby,
DEF: SF, DEN
IDP Kuechly, Deion Jones
Draft Picks #3 overall, #9 Overall, #12 Overall. #23, #29 overall.
My expected draft strategy: #3 QB2, WR1 #9 QB3, WR2 or RB1, #12 QB3 WR3 RB3.
Players I'm willing to move: CKIRK, ROJO, KELCE, MAYFIELD, GRIER PERRIMAN, ENGRAM, Maybe Wilson if I have replacement but unlikely.
Guys I like:
QBs Assume any young top 7 QB. Tier 2... prescott? Murray, Tier3 keep Mayfield,, J Allen, a top 3 Rookie, Outside top 10 I think top 20 is really a value play. Tannehill looks good legit filler until future comes along. There will be some guys on new teams ROOKIES and FA QBs. Winston? Newton Brady Rivers, Brees? Look at what happened in NYG. DEN, Don't sleep on Chad Kelly, Brett Rypien, Grier, Rosen, Stidham, Easton Stick, Finley sort of crapped out. Minshew has limited upside from current value. What's Mariota due? Trubisky? Keenum? Haskins? Brisset? Do Raiders move on from Carr? Cousins was decent but started slow. Something about him makes me uneasy to want to build around same with WENTZ. Darnold has upside but not if you over pay.
WR: I'm looking for angles to acquire MThomas, DJ Moore, Metcalf, ...while keeping Hopkins, Godwin, AJ Brown, I'm hopeful Hakeem BUTLER pans out. I'm giving a 3yr window for him to develop. We might see flashes but consistency could take time. More I see more I may extend. AZ drafting a WR just because Murray played college ball with them is a weak reason I've seen in mocks. BUT if it happened I would be concerned about AZ view on Butler's upside. Miles Boykin I'm hopeful he improves. Marquise Brown is fast/quick but small and light. He could and has been hurt often but at least he was producing. I'm bummed Boykin didn't take more advantage of opportunity. Very quiet season. Remaining patient. BAL chose him over Butler though and he's 6'4 220 so if Butler doesn't work out maybe he will. Plus I still have AJ Brown being a beast. I'm excited about Campbell too. Keeping him. he came back from injury and was featured in his first game back I think then got hurt again. He's fast. 5/10 205 not so lean. I believe he can produce on that team. WR and some rush plays. I was impressed with Deebo Samuel. Bummed about D Pettis but wonder if a new team would be benefit. I carried him most of last year and this year. Wouldn't blame guys for Golladay, Gallup, A Cooper, Kupp, Diggs, also see update for NKeal Harry after development window w NE. There are more.
RB: Elliott, CHUBB, Kerryon and Guice... holding them. Drafting a top available RB most likely with one of my picks. I have Boone but don't really know his value or upside or may not have the patience over other goals. Even if I'm wrong....and I think that's a key thing to consider... you can get value for guys that dont' have time to research a player or maybe before they get attached to them. Maybe they're busy thinking about other roster moves and player ___ isn't in their long term plans. But haven't moved him because someone hasn't spelled it out and made it simple for them so don't be shy. I learned Josh Allen owner isn't impressed with him. Doesn't know his worth. Doesn't mean I'm write and he's wrong but likely means I won't over pay for upside. Curious about: Mattison, Pollard, Ekeler, Barkley, did window on MIXON close second half of the season? Where's Gordon playing in 2020. I love Henry and would entertain lateral moves for him. I traded him away in Year 1 for KELCE and pick early in the season. RBs in general make me nervous. I try to draft them. I try to buy and hold underated top tier talent. I'm one of the few guys that had CHUBB in starting line-up week 4 in 2018 when he went 3 Rush for 105yds and 2TDs. Not sure who the next buy/hold is. Sanders had a solid rookie year. Montgomery had upside is seems but still quiet. Is anyone being overlooked?
TE: Kelce, Engram Henry, Goedert, Irv. I grabbed Jace and flipped him for a 2020 3rd rounder. I traded KNOX for 2020 3rd rounder. I didn't grab FANT when I could've because 6 TEs seemed excessive. we can only start 3 and I had other needs and BYE issues. Was tempted but didn't see it. I drafted IRV SMITH right after HOCKENSON was taken in our draft. I'd still take HOCK. TARGETS: KITTLE, HOCKENSON, HOOPER? If I can Sell KELCE for value. He wasn't dominate like 2018 but super consistent. He's over 30 also and I feel like there's enough juice and confidence that someone would be stoked to have him place TEs can play long term Look at Witten. But someone like Kittle who is a top option in pass game for team or similar would be ideal. I've seen people discuss: I Thomas, Sample, Moreau, Knox, Fant, Hock, etc. Consider SEA TE that's healthy, also Firkser,. if Andrews is a top TE I don't blame you buying in. Waller is older but good though production dropped some after crazy hot start. SO I would look for young, elite TE consolidation and trades where I can bank future draft picks over roster spots.
After week 1 the AJ Brown/ Corey Davis, Mariota owner dropped AJ Brown. I grabbed. Later I got Davis on WW and traded him also. Engram was picked up off WW by me for 2nd year in a row. I grabbed P Campbell off WW as well. Owners in my league are still learning dynasty vs redraft styles and they're not patient and they don't know how to value their draft picks. BUT They're getting better and usually err on the side of over valuing until I point stuff out to them. SO what's worked for me is bundle trades. I traded Sutton/AJEffery for 2020 1st rounder after week 3 with Mahomes owner. Jeffery 29. Sutton was more iffy still. Not in my future plans. That owner was tied with me for first and undefeated 3-0. Seemed like a good deal for late round pick. He finished 8th in an amazing spiral. I think rather than load up on rookie late round QBs I'll trade my two 3rd in 2020 for 2021 2nd to the owner that has no picks. Or sign/trade players for future picks.
I want to bank value. consolidate and reload with prospects and picks. Goal is to be so good at finding sleepers etc that I end up with 6 picks in first 3 rounds of any draft. I had close to that but cashed in a 2nd rounder. I will continue to hoard value in the form of future draft picks even though it's not always quite = trade value...because I'm flipping WW/FA before other people. Guys seem more open to trading a 1st round pick early in the season. Before it's a top 3 etc.
I'm curious where people value Trevor Lawrence compared to this group. I think this draft class is much better. 2019 TE class was great. There are 28-30 solid picks possibly in this draft so if you're not loaded. and want to trade some veteran players for some 2nd or 3rd round upside it's probably not a terrible idea. Look for players you can build around.
I don't know about your leagues. BUT we have to build around QBs first. They dictate trades. Then elite caliber talent at any position. So after QB RB important but too many RBBC and injury and turn over. So I focus on WR... we can start up to 6 WRs so I want at least 7 but have carried as many as 10. Wouldn't you know it by hoarding WRs there was need for them. I didn't have a top 10 WR but took all of the top 15-25 at one point. Lockett, Woods, JEffery, DJMoore, Sutton, Godwin, CKirk, Pettis (2018), Devante Parker, John Ross. ... I will use a similar strategy to continue to hoard value that can keep my starting roster consistent in scoring.
Once I have a literal dynasty build and future draft picks...I can pick and choose my way to playoffs each year. I did this by expecting to lose in year 1. AND only targeting players that were like 24-25 unless elite or starter top option and hopefully under 27 to ensure future playing windows. THat's why I focus on RB last. Once everything else is in place you can insert RB. ANd the TOP RB is rarely the one from last year but McCaffery did it 2018, 2019 will he do it a 3rd time? If you don't think so sell him for TOP Value. But if you think well top 5 is just fine..That's fine too. It's such a crap shoot with those guys I just don't trust it. I just know you want like 4-5 of them.
GOOD LUCK!
2QB league PPR 26 roster 2 IR start 2QB 3WR, 2RB 1TE, 1W/T 1/W/R 1W/R/T 1K/1TD 2IDP. all TD 6pt. bonus tiers: Just finished year 2 of dynasty league and lost in the final.
QBs: Watson, Wilson, Mayfield, Grier
WR: Hopkins, CGodwin, AJBrown, CKirk, MBoykin, HButler, BPerriman, ParrisCampbell,
RB: Elliott, CHubb, Ronald Jones, Guice, Kerryon Johnson, MBoone,
TE: Kelce, Engram, HHenry, Goedert, IrvSmith,
K: Crosby,
DEF: SF, DEN
IDP Kuechly, Deion Jones
Draft Picks #3 overall, #9 Overall, #12 Overall. #23, #29 overall.
My expected draft strategy: #3 QB2, WR1 #9 QB3, WR2 or RB1, #12 QB3 WR3 RB3.
Players I'm willing to move: CKIRK, ROJO, KELCE, MAYFIELD, GRIER PERRIMAN, ENGRAM, Maybe Wilson if I have replacement but unlikely.
Guys I like:
QBs Assume any young top 7 QB. Tier 2... prescott? Murray, Tier3 keep Mayfield,, J Allen, a top 3 Rookie, Outside top 10 I think top 20 is really a value play. Tannehill looks good legit filler until future comes along. There will be some guys on new teams ROOKIES and FA QBs. Winston? Newton Brady Rivers, Brees? Look at what happened in NYG. DEN, Don't sleep on Chad Kelly, Brett Rypien, Grier, Rosen, Stidham, Easton Stick, Finley sort of crapped out. Minshew has limited upside from current value. What's Mariota due? Trubisky? Keenum? Haskins? Brisset? Do Raiders move on from Carr? Cousins was decent but started slow. Something about him makes me uneasy to want to build around same with WENTZ. Darnold has upside but not if you over pay.
WR: I'm looking for angles to acquire MThomas, DJ Moore, Metcalf, ...while keeping Hopkins, Godwin, AJ Brown, I'm hopeful Hakeem BUTLER pans out. I'm giving a 3yr window for him to develop. We might see flashes but consistency could take time. More I see more I may extend. AZ drafting a WR just because Murray played college ball with them is a weak reason I've seen in mocks. BUT if it happened I would be concerned about AZ view on Butler's upside. Miles Boykin I'm hopeful he improves. Marquise Brown is fast/quick but small and light. He could and has been hurt often but at least he was producing. I'm bummed Boykin didn't take more advantage of opportunity. Very quiet season. Remaining patient. BAL chose him over Butler though and he's 6'4 220 so if Butler doesn't work out maybe he will. Plus I still have AJ Brown being a beast. I'm excited about Campbell too. Keeping him. he came back from injury and was featured in his first game back I think then got hurt again. He's fast. 5/10 205 not so lean. I believe he can produce on that team. WR and some rush plays. I was impressed with Deebo Samuel. Bummed about D Pettis but wonder if a new team would be benefit. I carried him most of last year and this year. Wouldn't blame guys for Golladay, Gallup, A Cooper, Kupp, Diggs, also see update for NKeal Harry after development window w NE. There are more.
RB: Elliott, CHUBB, Kerryon and Guice... holding them. Drafting a top available RB most likely with one of my picks. I have Boone but don't really know his value or upside or may not have the patience over other goals. Even if I'm wrong....and I think that's a key thing to consider... you can get value for guys that dont' have time to research a player or maybe before they get attached to them. Maybe they're busy thinking about other roster moves and player ___ isn't in their long term plans. But haven't moved him because someone hasn't spelled it out and made it simple for them so don't be shy. I learned Josh Allen owner isn't impressed with him. Doesn't know his worth. Doesn't mean I'm write and he's wrong but likely means I won't over pay for upside. Curious about: Mattison, Pollard, Ekeler, Barkley, did window on MIXON close second half of the season? Where's Gordon playing in 2020. I love Henry and would entertain lateral moves for him. I traded him away in Year 1 for KELCE and pick early in the season. RBs in general make me nervous. I try to draft them. I try to buy and hold underated top tier talent. I'm one of the few guys that had CHUBB in starting line-up week 4 in 2018 when he went 3 Rush for 105yds and 2TDs. Not sure who the next buy/hold is. Sanders had a solid rookie year. Montgomery had upside is seems but still quiet. Is anyone being overlooked?
TE: Kelce, Engram Henry, Goedert, Irv. I grabbed Jace and flipped him for a 2020 3rd rounder. I traded KNOX for 2020 3rd rounder. I didn't grab FANT when I could've because 6 TEs seemed excessive. we can only start 3 and I had other needs and BYE issues. Was tempted but didn't see it. I drafted IRV SMITH right after HOCKENSON was taken in our draft. I'd still take HOCK. TARGETS: KITTLE, HOCKENSON, HOOPER? If I can Sell KELCE for value. He wasn't dominate like 2018 but super consistent. He's over 30 also and I feel like there's enough juice and confidence that someone would be stoked to have him place TEs can play long term Look at Witten. But someone like Kittle who is a top option in pass game for team or similar would be ideal. I've seen people discuss: I Thomas, Sample, Moreau, Knox, Fant, Hock, etc. Consider SEA TE that's healthy, also Firkser,. if Andrews is a top TE I don't blame you buying in. Waller is older but good though production dropped some after crazy hot start. SO I would look for young, elite TE consolidation and trades where I can bank future draft picks over roster spots.
After week 1 the AJ Brown/ Corey Davis, Mariota owner dropped AJ Brown. I grabbed. Later I got Davis on WW and traded him also. Engram was picked up off WW by me for 2nd year in a row. I grabbed P Campbell off WW as well. Owners in my league are still learning dynasty vs redraft styles and they're not patient and they don't know how to value their draft picks. BUT They're getting better and usually err on the side of over valuing until I point stuff out to them. SO what's worked for me is bundle trades. I traded Sutton/AJEffery for 2020 1st rounder after week 3 with Mahomes owner. Jeffery 29. Sutton was more iffy still. Not in my future plans. That owner was tied with me for first and undefeated 3-0. Seemed like a good deal for late round pick. He finished 8th in an amazing spiral. I think rather than load up on rookie late round QBs I'll trade my two 3rd in 2020 for 2021 2nd to the owner that has no picks. Or sign/trade players for future picks.
I want to bank value. consolidate and reload with prospects and picks. Goal is to be so good at finding sleepers etc that I end up with 6 picks in first 3 rounds of any draft. I had close to that but cashed in a 2nd rounder. I will continue to hoard value in the form of future draft picks even though it's not always quite = trade value...because I'm flipping WW/FA before other people. Guys seem more open to trading a 1st round pick early in the season. Before it's a top 3 etc.
I'm curious where people value Trevor Lawrence compared to this group. I think this draft class is much better. 2019 TE class was great. There are 28-30 solid picks possibly in this draft so if you're not loaded. and want to trade some veteran players for some 2nd or 3rd round upside it's probably not a terrible idea. Look for players you can build around.
I don't know about your leagues. BUT we have to build around QBs first. They dictate trades. Then elite caliber talent at any position. So after QB RB important but too many RBBC and injury and turn over. So I focus on WR... we can start up to 6 WRs so I want at least 7 but have carried as many as 10. Wouldn't you know it by hoarding WRs there was need for them. I didn't have a top 10 WR but took all of the top 15-25 at one point. Lockett, Woods, JEffery, DJMoore, Sutton, Godwin, CKirk, Pettis (2018), Devante Parker, John Ross. ... I will use a similar strategy to continue to hoard value that can keep my starting roster consistent in scoring.
Once I have a literal dynasty build and future draft picks...I can pick and choose my way to playoffs each year. I did this by expecting to lose in year 1. AND only targeting players that were like 24-25 unless elite or starter top option and hopefully under 27 to ensure future playing windows. THat's why I focus on RB last. Once everything else is in place you can insert RB. ANd the TOP RB is rarely the one from last year but McCaffery did it 2018, 2019 will he do it a 3rd time? If you don't think so sell him for TOP Value. But if you think well top 5 is just fine..That's fine too. It's such a crap shoot with those guys I just don't trust it. I just know you want like 4-5 of them.
GOOD LUCK!
JohnnyU
Footballguy
That sure is a mouth full. My advice is not to build around last year's stats. Know the players, opportunity, and offensive scheme and how it looks for said player going forward. Add QB situation for WRs, whether it looks permanent or future QB projections.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I think it is a good strategy to focus on adding WR talent as much as possible. Their careers tend to last the longest and people are always looking for WR who can help them. So being overbalanced with WR isn't really a problem. You can move WR for other positions as needed.
I would keep using the same strategy until your roster gets stacked, then make your move for a top RB to complete it and make a run.
jwsbowler
Footballguy
Dynasty league? and only can keep 2??? If so, not a dynasty league. with the three as of this moment, my selections would be Brown and Metcalf... and trade Samuel.
The Captain
Footballguy
I think you should be focusing entirely on RB or WR with your draft picks unless someone special falls into your lap. You're already set at QB and have glaring needs at the other two positions based on your starter requirements.Tonycarpenter said:
If you are looking at taking a QB solely for resale value, then that's a fine play. But your roster doesn't need you to spend one of those premium picks on a QB.
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
I agree with you if you made a trade at the end of the year. But assuming AJ Green signs with another team and they draft Burrow at 1.1, I think he gains a lot of steam.
How much, realistically? FantasyPros have him ranked as WR27 right now. That seems about right, and he will probably fall around WR33 after the 2020 rookies are placed.
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
On ADP data I see him at WR28 and 54 overall, similar to what FantasyPros has (before rookies are added). I could see him jumping to about 40th overall. No reason for him to be behind Harry, Kirk, and Cooks. I would prefer him to McLaurin, Thielen, and maybe Chark, but probably a minority view. I could definitely see him putting up WR1 numbers next year and jumping a few other guys.
Maybe during the 2020 season, but I think that’s highly unlikely during the off-season. Great buy low opportunity if you like him to rise that much
kittenmittens
Footballguy
Sure if it's cheap enough, but most likely you're buying him from somebody who realizes his value will never be higher than it is right now. Even if he has a huge year next year he will be old for an RB and that will hurt his value - it probably already is. If he was 23 would we be saying his trade value isnt where it should be in some leagues?
Country Boy
Footballguy
I'm in a 14 team league and I've accumulated 1.02, 1.08, 1.14 (mine, I won the league!) and 2.01. Question, would you rather use all 4 picks or possibly trade a couple of picks to get another top 5 pick? Not a "who do I start" type of question but rather would you rather have quantity or quality in this draft?
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