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kittenmittens

2020 Dynasty offseason shark moves

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14 hours ago, IHEARTFF said:

DJ Moore, Tyler Boyd, DK Metcalf. Are you guys serious? Those WRs are going to be super expensive now. Maybe you can find a scared DJ Moore owner who doesn't know what qb Carolina will have, but these guys are trending towards very valuable commodities.

I don't think Boyd has the same allure that the other two have.

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17 hours ago, Tonycarpenter said:

2QB league PPR 26 roster 2 IR   start 2QB 3WR, 2RB 1TE, 1W/T 1/W/R 1W/R/T 1K/1TD 2IDP.  all TD 6pt. bonus tiers:  Just finished year 2 of dynasty league and lost in the final.

QBs: Watson, Wilson, Mayfield, Grier

My expected draft strategy: #3 QB2, WR1  #9 QB3, WR2 or RB1,  #12 QB3 WR3 RB3.

I think you should be focusing entirely on RB or WR with your draft picks unless someone special falls into your lap.  You're already set at QB and have glaring needs at the other two positions based on your starter requirements.
If you are looking at taking a QB solely for resale value, then that's a fine play.  But your roster doesn't need you to spend one of those premium picks on a QB.

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22 minutes ago, tangfoot said:

I don't think Boyd has the same allure that the other two have.

I agree with you if you made a trade at the end of the year. But assuming AJ Green signs with another team and they draft Burrow at 1.1, I think he gains a lot of steam. 

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5 minutes ago, thriftyrocker said:

I agree with you if you made a trade at the end of the year. But assuming AJ Green signs with another team and they draft Burrow at 1.1, I think he gains a lot of steam. 

How much, realistically?  FantasyPros have him ranked as WR27 right now.  That seems about right, and he will probably fall around WR33 after the 2020 rookies are placed.

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2 minutes ago, tangfoot said:

How much, realistically?  FantasyPros have him ranked as WR27 right now.  That seems about right, and he will probably fall around WR33 after the 2020 rookies are placed.

On ADP data I see him at WR28 and 54 overall, similar to what FantasyPros has (before rookies are added). I could see him jumping to about 40th overall. No reason for him to be behind Harry, Kirk, and Cooks. I would prefer him to McLaurin, Thielen, and maybe Chark, but probably a minority view. I could definitely see him putting up WR1 numbers next year and jumping a few other guys. 

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6 hours ago, thriftyrocker said:

I could see him jumping to about 40th overall.

Maybe during the 2020 season, but I think that’s highly unlikely during the off-season. Great buy low opportunity if you like him to rise that much

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On 1/8/2020 at 1:40 PM, kittenmittens said:

Yeah it might not work out depending on your league mates.  I wouldn't sell just to sell, need to get something very good coming back. 

Most of my leagues are superflex, and Jones is really close to Moore and Juju in the dynasty value calculators.  I think you can get something done if you sweeten it a bit. 

It seems to me that if his value is so low compared to his production, that the shark move is to acquire him, not sell him.

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41 minutes ago, Tornacl said:

It seems to me that if his value is so low compared to his production, that the shark move is to acquire him, not sell him.

Sure if it's cheap enough, but most likely you're buying him from somebody who realizes his value will never be higher than it is right now. Even if he has a huge year next year he will be old for an RB and that will hurt his value - it probably already is.  If he was 23 would we be saying his trade value isnt where it should be in some leagues? 

 

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I'm in a 14 team league and I've accumulated 1.02, 1.08, 1.14 (mine, I won the league!) and 2.01.  Question, would you rather use all 4 picks or possibly trade a couple of picks to get another top 5 pick?  Not a "who do I start" type of question but rather would you rather have quantity or quality in this draft?

Edited by Country Boy
Fixed a typo

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Quantity...this year only. I like your picks. Four of the top 15 rookies, great.

certainly this is not a “who do I start” question, just a great strategy question. I’d like to hear others opinions.

 

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1 hour ago, Country Boy said:

I'm in a 14 team league and I've accumulated 1.02, 1.08, 1.14 (mine, I won the league!) and 2.01.  Question, would you rather use all 4 picks or possibly trade a couple of picks to get another top 5 pick?  Not a "who do I start" type of question but rather would you rather have quantity or quality in this draft?

this draft is pretty deep but definitely not as it was hyped to be.

imo I'd try to trade up to 6 to grab a better wr than you'll get at 8. 14 and 15 are almost enough on the calcs 14+15+something for 1.5 or 1.6 I'd be thrilled 

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1 hour ago, Country Boy said:

I'm in a 14 team league and I've accumulated 1.02, 1.08, 1.14 (mine, I won the league!) and 2.01.  Question, would you rather use all 4 picks or possibly trade a couple of picks to get another top 5 pick?  Not a "who do I start" type of question but rather would you rather have quantity or quality in this draft?

Rank your prospects and see how deep that top tier is. Does it go 8 deep ? If so, you are fine. If you have a cutoff at 5, then you might consider packaging 1.08 + 1.14 to move up. It all boils down to how much separation you see at the top of the draft.

I think it would be easier to move up now, while people are still talking about a "deep draft", vs waiting until your draft starts. At that point, the other owners start getting more attached to particular players.

 

 

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2 hours ago, Country Boy said:

I'm in a 14 team league and I've accumulated 1.02, 1.08, 1.14 (mine, I won the league!) and 2.01.  Question, would you rather use all 4 picks or possibly trade a couple of picks to get another top 5 pick?  Not a "who do I start" type of question but rather would you rather have quantity or quality in this draft?

It depends somewhat on what your plans are for these picks and what your roster looks like.

You won the league, so your roster must be pretty good. If so then investing in WR seems fine, as you have time to wait for them to develop while at the same time being competitive.

The RB can make a bigger impact to your line up potentially right away. With ETN and Chubba not being available, some of the depth there isn't what it was a couple of weeks ago, but there are still at least 3 highly sought after RB from this draft class. So unless that changes, getting a pick in the top 5 seems worthwhile, if you are targeting those RB.

Are your rosters large enough to sit on 4 (or more) rookies this season then perhaps it is better overall value to just keep what you have and let the draft come to you.

At this point in time you just won the championship, you have a good team. I would try to trade those picks for higher ones and draft quality over quantity.

There are so many good WR I think those later picks could be similarly good stabs at a good one as an earlier pick might be. Of course that is without knowing their draft position and fits will be. You will have easier more sure choices if you consolidate those later picks into an earlier one. Your odds of hitting on one will be higher, but maybe not that much better a WR prospect than what you can still get at 14 and 15.

As a thought exercise you could look at past 3 years rookie ADP and see how that looks. I think last seasons rookie class was good at WR but this one seems to be more highly thought of at that position than last years was. If thats true then those later picks may be more valuable than usual. The lack of high level prospects at TE perhaps makes this more even though.

Edited by Biabreakable

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18 minutes ago, Ben & Jerry's said:

Rank your prospects and see how deep that top tier is. Does it go 8 deep ? If so, you are fine. If you have a cutoff at 5, then you might consider packaging 1.08 + 1.14 to move up. It all boils down to how much separation you see at the top of the draft.

I think it would be easier to move up now, while people are still talking about a "deep draft", vs waiting until your draft starts. At that point, the other owners start getting more attached to particular players.

I think this is the best way to do it.

Rank the players and tier them. Where the tiers break are the edges you want to maneuver around.

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3 hours ago, Country Boy said:

I'm in a 14 team league and I've accumulated 1.02, 1.08, 1.14 (mine, I won the league!) and 2.01.  Question, would you rather use all 4 picks or possibly trade a couple of picks to get another top 5 pick?  Not a "who do I start" type of question but rather would you rather have quantity or quality in this draft?

Some people have suggested you rank your players into tiers. I think that's the perfect strategy but also one that you can often ball up and throw in the trash once the NFL draft concludes. Not sure how much that will help you now but for sure a great and simple strategy I use post-draft every year.

As for what I'd do if I had to decide now. It would depend on if I want or need a RB. If you do I'd try and move up.

  I believe the WR's in this draft are every bit as advertised.  The RB's got shell shocked when the 4 prospects remained and while there are some solid RB's it looks a lot more shallow then I expected. When looking at factors such as depth of this WR class, high bust rate of so many real NFL draft first round WR's and consequently so many WR's drafted in first few picks of rookie drafts combined lack of depth at RB it looks to me like a strong chance we see a feeding frenzy on the viable RB's early in most drafts. So early you might feel like you are reaching for a RB if you sit back at 8, maybe by that time 5+ RB's are gone.

I'm not saying to that WR's like Jeudy and Lamb should not be considered with a high pick. But I am saying that the RB options might be sorely lacking past mid round one.

 

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meobrown makes a good point about how the combine and NFL draft will change the way folks might rank these rookies right now. So trying to rank and tier them now is something you will have to weigh your confidence in.

I haven't watched these rookie players enough yet to have that kind of conviction in ranking them. I will get to that point eventually, but I am not there yet.

I think its worth bringing up that Kelvin Harmon was ranked pretty high by this community in the pre combine polls last year. That is an example of a players perceived value changing a lot with new information.

For the most part I do think the way people voted for the rookies was pretty solid though, even before the combine. You folks know some stuff. But there will likely always be a few guys who you may have high now who will go late in the NFL draft and thus you drop them down those lists.

On the flip side of that I think its worth paying attention to players like Harmon who many thought was a good WR prospect. It wouldn't surprise me if that valuation ends up being closer to being correct than post NFL rankings. Its something I always keep filed away until the rookies have 3 seasons in the NFL. Its enough reason for me to that Harmon is worth rostering anyways. 

Edited by Biabreakable
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The move I made to acquire 1.08 was a risk.  Ours isn't a true dynasty.  Each player is assigned contract years when they are acquired with a max of 35 years for your active roster. When their contract expires we bid on each in a live auction. I had Zeke for only one more year so I traded him to the guy in our league who thinks he's one player away for 1.08 and Franchise Cash (what we use to bid on our Restricted Free Agents).  As a Cowboy fan it was heartbreaking to move on from him but I felt like since I won the title I could afford to take a step back if needed and reload for the future.  

I agree that now would be the best time to make some moves because the perception is the depth of this draft.  The other factor will be after the draft when slots start turning into players.  To me the most important thing will be to develop tiers.  Example: Right now I would contend that in our .5 PPR there are 5 (Swift, Taylor, Dobbins, Jeudy, and Lamb) on the top tier so I need to turn 8 into 5.  Or could I move 14 + 15 + Franchise Cash to get to 5 and hold onto 8.  One thing about our league is that the top QB will go in the first 8 picks.  One of our guys in need of a QB will reach so Burrow will go top 8 meaning that Ruggs or Higgins should be there. Or at least that's what I hope. 

I just know the good NFL teams always seem to have picks exactly where they want.  

 

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Not sure if he has been mentioned but, a guy who seems to be way under the radar is John Ross.  He has had a rough start to his career, but the talent is there and the significant QB upgrade he is about to get makes him my top buy low target this offseason.

Edited by Bazinga!
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My shark move this year is to do nothing. Sometimes I’m too active and my team is stacked. I just have to not screw up by over trading

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5 hours ago, Bazinga! said:

Not sure if he has been mentioned but, a guy who seems to be way under the radar is John Ross.  He has had a rough start to his career, but the talent is there and the significant QB upgrade he is about to get makes him my top buy low target this offseason.

There is very high injury risk here but maybe the upside is worth it.

Males sense to target Bengals skill players right now because of Burrow likely improving their offense across the board. Burrow can't make Ross healthy though.

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11 hours ago, Biabreakable said:

There is very high injury risk here but maybe the upside is worth it.

Males sense to target Bengals skill players right now because of Burrow likely improving their offense across the board. Burrow can't make Ross healthy though.

Agreed.  I bought Ross before the 2019 season. While I was encouraged with his usage, PFF grades still weren't particularly high and completion rate was low in my eyes.  I can't tell you if that was crappy uncatchable throws or bad receiving as I didn't see any games.

What I'm optimistic about was the 2019 injury was a broken collarbone, while all previous injuries were lower-body soft tissue stuff.  I don't consider the collarbone related to previous muscle injuries and am hopeful after 3 years in an NFL training program that perhaps he will have put those injuries behind him, at least for one season.  

If you have room, I think he makes a good flier.  But he's a flier, not someone with an established role like some of the others in the thread where folks are expecting simply higher production

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7 hours ago, inyoutees said:

Agreed.  I bought Ross before the 2019 season. While I was encouraged with his usage, PFF grades still weren't particularly high and completion rate was low in my eyes.  I can't tell you if that was crappy uncatchable throws or bad receiving as I didn't see any games.

What I'm optimistic about was the 2019 injury was a broken collarbone, while all previous injuries were lower-body soft tissue stuff.  I don't consider the collarbone related to previous muscle injuries and am hopeful after 3 years in an NFL training program that perhaps he will have put those injuries behind him, at least for one season.  

If you have room, I think he makes a good flier.  But he's a flier, not someone with an established role like some of the others in the thread where folks are expecting simply higher production

Would you pay a late second for him?

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22 hours ago, Gandalf said:

My shark move this year is to do nothing. Sometimes I’m too active and my team is stacked. I just have to not screw up by over trading

I felt that way with having Luck, Antonio Brown, Kareem Hunt (2018), Beckham Jr, Gurley, and Gronk on the same team, among other so-called safe bets.  Things happen quickly in FF.

Edited by JohnnyU
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2 hours ago, JohnnyU said:

I felt that way with having Luck, Antonio Brown, Kareem Hunt (2018), Beckham Jr, Gurley, and Gronk on the same team, among other so-called safe bets.  Things happen quickly in FF.

That is a lot of bad luck!

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On 1/25/2020 at 5:16 PM, Mark Football said:

Would you pay a late second for him?

I'm in a deep IDP dynasty league.  Price for me was roughly late 4th to early 5th.  Depending on what you think of this year's crop of WR, I think late 2nd is reasonable.  Depending on your situation, upside of a rookie longer timeframe for it to play out and someone like a McLaurin to happen.  Upside of Ross is you'll probably know within a year whether you have something worth keeping (or trading) but it might also be 2 years and a drop.  For whatever it's worth, a couple trade calculators I use (doesn't include IDP) has Ross at about late 2nd value as well.  I'd be happier cheaper, but it seems reasonable.

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On 1/24/2020 at 7:51 PM, Gandalf said:

My shark move this year is to do nothing. Sometimes I’m too active and my team is stacked. I just have to not screw up by over trading

I have the same issue. This year I am just targeting a handful of guys that I feel are undervalued and I can maybe find a bargain on. No major trades.

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On 1/24/2020 at 4:50 PM, Bazinga! said:

Not sure if he has been mentioned but, a guy who seems to be way under the radar is John Ross.  He has had a rough start to his career, but the talent is there and the significant QB upgrade he is about to get makes him my top buy low target this offseason.

 

On 1/24/2020 at 10:48 PM, Biabreakable said:

There is very high injury risk here but maybe the upside is worth it.

Makes sense to target Bengals skill players right now because of Burrow likely improving their offense across the board. Burrow can't make Ross healthy though.

 

On 1/25/2020 at 6:16 PM, Mark Football said:

Would you pay a late second for him?

  While I was never a Dalton fan, but I thought Ross's 1st round pedigree was well deserved.  

I was in trade negotiations for him last weekend....  ended up paying a little more... but I don't have the roster space for the picks anyway...

Paid: 2.11, 4.06, 4.11, 4.12 

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5 hours ago, cockroach said:

I like Auden Tate as a cheap WR in Cinci.  He made some really impressive grabs last year.  This article (which has some clips) compares him to Golladay:   https://stripehype.com/2019/12/05/cincinnati-bengals-film-study-auden-tate-rise/

He's not fast but he has good size and hands.

He was getting touted as a potential 1st round dynasty rookie pick before the NFL draft happened, then his draft capital put his value in the garbage. I'm not going to argue with NFL draft capital, it is the best indicator of success we have, but this guy was well regarded and looked pretty decent when given some volume this year.

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