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2020 Dynasty offseason shark moves (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter kittenmittens
- Start date
Ben & Jerry's
Footballguy
Rank your prospects and see how deep that top tier is. Does it go 8 deep ? If so, you are fine. If you have a cutoff at 5, then you might consider packaging 1.08 + 1.14 to move up. It all boils down to how much separation you see at the top of the draft.
I think it would be easier to move up now, while people are still talking about a "deep draft", vs waiting until your draft starts. At that point, the other owners start getting more attached to particular players.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
It depends somewhat on what your plans are for these picks and what your roster looks like.
You won the league, so your roster must be pretty good. If so then investing in WR seems fine, as you have time to wait for them to develop while at the same time being competitive.
The RB can make a bigger impact to your line up potentially right away. With ETN and Chubba not being available, some of the depth there isn't what it was a couple of weeks ago, but there are still at least 3 highly sought after RB from this draft class. So unless that changes, getting a pick in the top 5 seems worthwhile, if you are targeting those RB.
Are your rosters large enough to sit on 4 (or more) rookies this season then perhaps it is better overall value to just keep what you have and let the draft come to you.
At this point in time you just won the championship, you have a good team. I would try to trade those picks for higher ones and draft quality over quantity.
There are so many good WR I think those later picks could be similarly good stabs at a good one as an earlier pick might be. Of course that is without knowing their draft position and fits will be. You will have easier more sure choices if you consolidate those later picks into an earlier one. Your odds of hitting on one will be higher, but maybe not that much better a WR prospect than what you can still get at 14 and 15.
As a thought exercise you could look at past 3 years rookie ADP and see how that looks. I think last seasons rookie class was good at WR but this one seems to be more highly thought of at that position than last years was. If thats true then those later picks may be more valuable than usual. The lack of high level prospects at TE perhaps makes this more even though.
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Biabreakable
Footballguy
I think this is the best way to do it.
Rank the players and tier them. Where the tiers break are the edges you want to maneuver around.
Some people have suggested you rank your players into tiers. I think that's the perfect strategy but also one that you can often ball up and throw in the trash once the NFL draft concludes. Not sure how much that will help you now but for sure a great and simple strategy I use post-draft every year.
As for what I'd do if I had to decide now. It would depend on if I want or need a RB. If you do I'd try and move up.
I believe the WR's in this draft are every bit as advertised. The RB's got shell shocked when the 4 prospects remained and while there are some solid RB's it looks a lot more shallow then I expected. When looking at factors such as depth of this WR class, high bust rate of so many real NFL draft first round WR's and consequently so many WR's drafted in first few picks of rookie drafts combined lack of depth at RB it looks to me like a strong chance we see a feeding frenzy on the viable RB's early in most drafts. So early you might feel like you are reaching for a RB if you sit back at 8, maybe by that time 5+ RB's are gone.
I'm not saying to that WR's like Jeudy and Lamb should not be considered with a high pick. But I am saying that the RB options might be sorely lacking past mid round one.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
meobrown makes a good point about how the combine and NFL draft will change the way folks might rank these rookies right now. So trying to rank and tier them now is something you will have to weigh your confidence in.
I haven't watched these rookie players enough yet to have that kind of conviction in ranking them. I will get to that point eventually, but I am not there yet.
I think its worth bringing up that Kelvin Harmon was ranked pretty high by this community in the pre combine polls last year. That is an example of a players perceived value changing a lot with new information.
For the most part I do think the way people voted for the rookies was pretty solid though, even before the combine. You folks know some stuff. But there will likely always be a few guys who you may have high now who will go late in the NFL draft and thus you drop them down those lists.
On the flip side of that I think its worth paying attention to players like Harmon who many thought was a good WR prospect. It wouldn't surprise me if that valuation ends up being closer to being correct than post NFL rankings. Its something I always keep filed away until the rookies have 3 seasons in the NFL. Its enough reason for me to that Harmon is worth rostering anyways.
I haven't watched these rookie players enough yet to have that kind of conviction in ranking them. I will get to that point eventually, but I am not there yet.
I think its worth bringing up that Kelvin Harmon was ranked pretty high by this community in the pre combine polls last year. That is an example of a players perceived value changing a lot with new information.
For the most part I do think the way people voted for the rookies was pretty solid though, even before the combine. You folks know some stuff. But there will likely always be a few guys who you may have high now who will go late in the NFL draft and thus you drop them down those lists.
On the flip side of that I think its worth paying attention to players like Harmon who many thought was a good WR prospect. It wouldn't surprise me if that valuation ends up being closer to being correct than post NFL rankings. Its something I always keep filed away until the rookies have 3 seasons in the NFL. Its enough reason for me to that Harmon is worth rostering anyways.
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Country Boy
Footballguy
The move I made to acquire 1.08 was a risk. Ours isn't a true dynasty. Each player is assigned contract years when they are acquired with a max of 35 years for your active roster. When their contract expires we bid on each in a live auction. I had Zeke for only one more year so I traded him to the guy in our league who thinks he's one player away for 1.08 and Franchise Cash (what we use to bid on our Restricted Free Agents). As a Cowboy fan it was heartbreaking to move on from him but I felt like since I won the title I could afford to take a step back if needed and reload for the future.
I agree that now would be the best time to make some moves because the perception is the depth of this draft. The other factor will be after the draft when slots start turning into players. To me the most important thing will be to develop tiers. Example: Right now I would contend that in our .5 PPR there are 5 (Swift, Taylor, Dobbins, Jeudy, and Lamb) on the top tier so I need to turn 8 into 5. Or could I move 14 + 15 + Franchise Cash to get to 5 and hold onto 8. One thing about our league is that the top QB will go in the first 8 picks. One of our guys in need of a QB will reach so Burrow will go top 8 meaning that Ruggs or Higgins should be there. Or at least that's what I hope.
I just know the good NFL teams always seem to have picks exactly where they want.
I agree that now would be the best time to make some moves because the perception is the depth of this draft. The other factor will be after the draft when slots start turning into players. To me the most important thing will be to develop tiers. Example: Right now I would contend that in our .5 PPR there are 5 (Swift, Taylor, Dobbins, Jeudy, and Lamb) on the top tier so I need to turn 8 into 5. Or could I move 14 + 15 + Franchise Cash to get to 5 and hold onto 8. One thing about our league is that the top QB will go in the first 8 picks. One of our guys in need of a QB will reach so Burrow will go top 8 meaning that Ruggs or Higgins should be there. Or at least that's what I hope.
I just know the good NFL teams always seem to have picks exactly where they want.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
There is very high injury risk here but maybe the upside is worth it.
Males sense to target Bengals skill players right now because of Burrow likely improving their offense across the board. Burrow can't make Ross healthy though.
inyoutees
Footballguy
Agreed. I bought Ross before the 2019 season. While I was encouraged with his usage, PFF grades still weren't particularly high and completion rate was low in my eyes. I can't tell you if that was crappy uncatchable throws or bad receiving as I didn't see any games.
What I'm optimistic about was the 2019 injury was a broken collarbone, while all previous injuries were lower-body soft tissue stuff. I don't consider the collarbone related to previous muscle injuries and am hopeful after 3 years in an NFL training program that perhaps he will have put those injuries behind him, at least for one season.
If you have room, I think he makes a good flier. But he's a flier, not someone with an established role like some of the others in the thread where folks are expecting simply higher production
Mark Football
Footballguy
JohnnyU
Footballguy
I felt that way with having Luck, Antonio Brown, Kareem Hunt (2018), Beckham Jr, Gurley, and Gronk on the same team, among other so-called safe bets. Things happen quickly in FF.
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Gandalf
Footballguy
inyoutees
Footballguy
I'm in a deep IDP dynasty league. Price for me was roughly late 4th to early 5th. Depending on what you think of this year's crop of WR, I think late 2nd is reasonable. Depending on your situation, upside of a rookie longer timeframe for it to play out and someone like a McLaurin to happen. Upside of Ross is you'll probably know within a year whether you have something worth keeping (or trading) but it might also be 2 years and a drop. For whatever it's worth, a couple trade calculators I use (doesn't include IDP) has Ross at about late 2nd value as well. I'd be happier cheaper, but it seems reasonable.Mark Football said:
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
I have the same issue. This year I am just targeting a handful of guys that I feel are undervalued and I can maybe find a bargain on. No major trades.Gandalf said:
Birdie048
Footballguy
Biabreakable said:
While I was never a Dalton fan, but I thought Ross's 1st round pedigree was well deserved.Mark Football said:
I was in trade negotiations for him last weekend.... ended up paying a little more... but I don't have the roster space for the picks anyway...
Paid: 2.11, 4.06, 4.11, 4.12
I like Auden Tate as a cheap WR in Cinci. He made some really impressive grabs last year. This article (which has some clips) compares him to Golladay: https://stripehype.com/2019/12/05/cincinnati-bengals-film-study-auden-tate-rise/
He's not fast but he has good size and hands.
He's not fast but he has good size and hands.
He was getting touted as a potential 1st round dynasty rookie pick before the NFL draft happened, then his draft capital put his value in the garbage. I'm not going to argue with NFL draft capital, it is the best indicator of success we have, but this guy was well regarded and looked pretty decent when given some volume this year.
