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Ministry of Pain

Tennessee at Baltimore (-10) Game Thread-Divisional Round

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2 minutes ago, chinawildman said:

his 31.7 QBR in this game qualifies him for 2nd worst of all QB performances in the postseason thus far. That's worse than Cousins, Allen, etc... only McCown was worse. So no, he didn't play well at all.

 

Also consider he didn’t put up much until the game was well out of hand.

the 1st pick wasn’t on him though - he threw a little high & behind Andrews, but that shoulda been a catch. Andrews volleyballed it. Easy pick. 

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5 minutes ago, chinawildman said:

Yes, the QB can only do so much, but accumulation of stats doesn't count for much in real football. I'll reference a stat I posted in the LJ thread, but his 31.7 QBR in this game qualifies him for 2nd worst of all QB performances in the postseason thus far. That's worse than Cousins, Allen, etc... only McCown was worse. So no, he didn't play well at all.

 

and it seemed like the gameplan was to run him alot...and it wasnt effective...seemed to glory hound it a bit

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3 minutes ago, bicycle_seat_sniffer said:

and it seemed like the gameplan was to run him alot...and it wasnt effective...seemed to glory hound it a bit

Yes, the best analogy I could think of is that the Titans looked like they were playing "basketball defense". Jackson looked like a guy who kept attacking the basket when the defenders were clearly giving him the outside shot. Only when the defender "went for the steal" did Jackson get open running lanes. He wasn't able to hit the outside shots and his team fell behind. 

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I don't want to be the guy to critique the Ravens after beating them. They're a great team and probably just need some tweaks to get to the Supe.

I do think Derrick Henry is going to change the NFL back some. The LBs used to be bigger. They'd be drafted and have to put on weight to get to 250-260 pounds. Most rookies were too light to play. Nowadays they want them faster and lighter. That just makes it easier for him.

I'll give ya that human bowling ball Samaje Perrine didn't pan out, but there's gonna be more tough hitting backs. There always are. I bet some in the game are thinking of working on their stiff arm and maybe smacking some LBs like he does. My Titans started a 220 pound LB and he did pretty good yesterday. Ingram ran right over him. The few times I saw the Bucs, they used a FB as a RB for spells. The Titans didn't even show ya Blasingame yesterday but he's a big back too. 

Most of the top teams have FBs. That went away like a fad but the success rate seems to indicate that teams should bring that back. Can these little backers fend off a FB?

Anfernee Whatshisname probably gets drafted higher now. He's got great size and meanness. I don't think he's debatable as one of the top LBs, but he's definite. 

Lebeau ran three safeties in Pittsburgh and every team had some variation. The Ravens and Titans ran it years ago as did...maybe the Bears? Hawks? There were several teams. It was so successful yesterday against Baltimore, I wouldn't be surprised if some teams dusted off the old defensive playbooks and added a top safety where it might not seem like a big need predraft. There were a few good not great safeties this past offseason that were cut and bounced around like Cyprien. Maybe teams sign a guy like him and only keep five corners rather than six or on that call list? 

When Lebeau was with the Titans, every DB had to learn every DB spot and yep we saw Byard on a WR and corners at safety. I thought that was just the legend's way of teaching the game. I know he barked at corners tackling and safeties covering and it teaches technique so easily but maybe he was looking for subs though. Maybe teams can find an extra safety right on their roster? Belichick does this too or has done this. 

The Ravens, Titans, and Pats (although their TEs are lesser and were hurt often) go from 3 TE to 3 WR at the next snap. That is difficult to switch to when you've got DB injuries late in the year. The Eagles had injuries and didn't, but they did last year. Watch the Hawks do it today. LaFleur was with the Titans and the Pack have quality DBs so they'll be ready for it, but it still might work. It's that last target. Firkser last week. Pruitt had a big catch yesterday. Injuries make this an advantage late in the year that just isn't there as the season begins. This is yet another reason to add a better safety this offseason.

I think we'll see FBs return, bigger ILBs, and a better third safety on many teams next year

 

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4 minutes ago, chinawildman said:

Yes, the best analogy I could think of is that the Titans looked like they were playing "basketball defense". Jackson looked like a guy who kept attacking the basket when the defenders were clearly giving him the outside shot. Only when the defender "went for the steal" did Jackson get open running lanes. He wasn't able to hit the outside shots and his team fell behind. 

Correa was awesome. He's a depth backer that plays half the game or less usually. When he was with Baltimore, Flacco was and Lamar wasn't the gem yet. I don't know that he learned it there, but maybe. He was the catalyst or point man on D so many times and he only made a couple bad choices. He stayed home and didn't attack until last second and....it was just shocking how well the depth guy stepped up

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34 minutes ago, chinawildman said:

Yes, the QB can only do so much, but accumulation of stats doesn't count for much in real football. I'll reference a stat I posted in the LJ thread, but his 31.7 QBR in this game qualifies him for 2nd worst of all QB performances in the postseason thus far. That's worse than Cousins, Allen, etc... only McCown was worse. So no, he didn't play well at all.

 

That's their offense though and as long as they are comfy "living and dying" by Lamar then they're going to. I don't think there is any reason for those runs up the middle. The world knows Lamar is a threat so what are they establishing? The backs were getting six up the middle too. How about a WR screen? Lamar doesn't have to take hits and look slick as he runs outside, the CB is drawn closer to setup the deep game. It is what they do though.

The Bulls had fine big men but wanted Jordan taking jumpers rather than the easy post. The Lakers have two (once) awesome big men now but it's still gonna be LeBron in crunch time. Was there a crunch time where Gretzky didn't have the puck? Ever? 

Tannehill is the top QB since he entered and yet he's barely thrown in the playoffs because Henry is the star. (And I'm thankful for that)

They could have done things differently but they won't. Maybe a smidge, but that's how sports is- ya put it in the star's hands and that guy has to succeed despite everyone knowing this. It happens. Lamar has to mature. It's his second year. As long as he holds up, he'll be better for it in year 6 or 7 because of this. Is it a waste in a team sport? Maybe but it still happens. It's a developmental level that most players never even have to contemplate, just the stars. Watch Wilson today. It's probably all gonna fall on his shoulders in the fourth and the Packers D will be nervous when it does. 

Wilson became buds with Derek Jeter years ago. Maybe Lamar has to seek someone out? This is the game on a whole 'nother level that, again, most never even have to contemplate

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1 hour ago, chinawildman said:

Yes, the QB can only do so much, but accumulation of stats doesn't count for much in real football. I'll reference a stat I posted in the LJ thread, but his 31.7 QBR in this game qualifies him for 2nd worst of all QB performances in the postseason thus far. That's worse than Cousins, Allen, etc... only McCown was worse. So no, he didn't play well at all.

 

I referenced the stats more in the "nobody else did a damn thing" category than to try to argue he did great.  

Go ahead and blame LJ for losing. But they wouldn't even be in the playoffs without him.  

Or maybe just give credit to the Titans defense and Derrick. 

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17 minutes ago, Bri said:

That's their offense though and as long as they are comfy "living and dying" by Lamar then they're going to. I don't think there is any reason for those runs up the middle. The world knows Lamar is a threat so what are they establishing? The backs were getting six up the middle too. How about a WR screen? Lamar doesn't have to take hits and look slick as he runs outside, the CB is drawn closer to setup the deep game. It is what they do though.

The Bulls had fine big men but wanted Jordan taking jumpers rather than the easy post. The Lakers have two (once) awesome big men now but it's still gonna be LeBron in crunch time. Was there a crunch time where Gretzky didn't have the puck? Ever? 

Tannehill is the top QB since he entered and yet he's barely thrown in the playoffs because Henry is the star. (And I'm thankful for that)

They could have done things differently but they won't. Maybe a smidge, but that's how sports is- ya put it in the star's hands and that guy has to succeed despite everyone knowing this. It happens. Lamar has to mature. It's his second year. As long as he holds up, he'll be better for it in year 6 or 7 because of this. Is it a waste in a team sport? Maybe but it still happens. It's a developmental level that most players never even have to contemplate, just the stars. Watch Wilson today. It's probably all gonna fall on his shoulders in the fourth and the Packers D will be nervous when it does. 

Wilson became buds with Derek Jeter years ago. Maybe Lamar has to seek someone out? This is the game on a whole 'nother level that, again, most never even have to contemplate

Pretty much agreed. Jordan didn't beat the Pistons until someone else was able to help. 

 

I'd love, but also hate, to see Amari Cooper in Baltimore next year.  

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As far as his throws, yeah they're weird but they are pretty. Maybe he can work on placement- he still throws to the shoulder pad like he did in college and that makes a WR twist to catch as the arms just can't go there. NFL WRs work on this crossing dive and I don't think I saw Lamar throw any low on purpose. There are things, but little things. The guy is awesome and if what we mentioned here is all he has to fix after his second year in the league- look out!

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5 minutes ago, Bri said:

That's their offense though and as long as they are comfy "living and dying" by Lamar then they're going to.

IF they "die by lamar" I can almost storyboard it for the ravens fans...

You'll start by wondering, "why isn't he throwing to the TEs? they're always open!" as opponents utilize the anti-Roman blueprint to take away seam/corner routes by the TEs and give them the short outs to the WRs...

then proceed to watch Jackson's YPC plummet as teams give him the 3 and 4 yd runs by stringing him outside and not going for the sack. Occasionally he'll bust one but they'll get fewer and farther between...

Teams will continue to "give him the outside shot" meaning throws to the sidelines and he'll miss some bad ones (like the INT to vacarro). Signs of capitulation rear their ugly head when you dare to think: "Flacco would've completed that one..." 

The ravens go from a top 3 offense to a middling one where drives that previously consisted of chunk plays are replaced by grueling 15+ play drives...

Eventually the sheer quantity of physical exposure takes its toll on Jackson and he gets injured... 

The Roman offense is eventually scrapped and LJ becomes another name in a long line of "transcendent QB talents" like VY, RG3, Kap...

 

Not saying that's what WILL happen, but if it does... that HOW it will happen.

 

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7 minutes ago, chinawildman said:

IF they "die by lamar" I can almost storyboard it for the ravens fans...

You'll start by wondering, "why isn't he throwing to the TEs? they're always open!" as opponents utilize the anti-Roman blueprint to take away seam/corner routes by the TEs and give them the short outs to the WRs...

then proceed to watch Jackson's YPC plummet as teams give him the 3 and 4 yd runs by stringing him outside and not going for the sack. Occasionally he'll bust one but they'll get fewer and farther between...

Teams will continue to "give him the outside shot" meaning throws to the sidelines and he'll miss some bad ones (like the INT to vacarro). Signs of capitulation rear their ugly head when you dare to think: "Flacco would've completed that one..." 

The ravens go from a top 3 offense to a middling one where drives that previously consisted of chunk plays are replaced by grueling 15+ play drives...

Eventually the sheer quantity of physical exposure takes its toll on Jackson and he gets injured... 

The Roman offense is eventually scrapped and LJ becomes another name in a long line of "transcendent QB talents" like VY, RG3, Kap...

 

Not saying that's what WILL happen, but if it does... that HOW it will happen.

 

They did it all year. You "can't" pick one game as the only sample here.

The Ravens better know every team is going to watch the Titans tape over n over to figure out how they beat Lamar, but otherwise their plan worked 14 of 17 times. Who wouldn't take those odds?

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8 minutes ago, -OZ- said:

I referenced the stats more in the "nobody else did a damn thing" category than to try to argue he did great.  

Go ahead and blame LJ for losing. But they wouldn't even be in the playoffs without him.  

Or maybe just give credit to the Titans defense and Derrick. 

Titans D pitched a great game. Even during the Ravens first drive when they were moving the ball as they normally do I remember thinking I liked the way the Titans were playing this... They followed the anti-Roman/Kap blueprint to the tee... As a niners fan I've seen this all before.

As for Jackson, I don't see how you can account for 90% of the offensive plays, only score 12pts, turn the ball over 3 times (not to mention the weird cutbacks on the QB sneaks for turnover on downs) and NOT get blamed for the loss.

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2 minutes ago, Bri said:

They did it all year. You "can't" pick one game as the only sample here.

The Ravens better know every team is going to watch the Titans tape over n over to figure out how they beat Lamar, but otherwise their plan worked 14 of 17 times. Who wouldn't take those odds?

I'm half being tongue in cheek here by basically taking the debacle of the Roman/Kapernick offense and transposing it onto the Ravens.

That said, for Jackson to improve as a pocket passer he would have to buck a few trends. I can't think of too many running QBs that started in these one read and go offenses that eventually learned how to read defenses or became accurate outside passers.

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14 minutes ago, chinawildman said:

 

Teams will continue to "give him the outside shot" meaning throws to the sidelines and he'll miss some bad ones (like the INT to vacarro). Signs of capitulation rear their ugly head when you dare to think: "Flacco would've completed that one..." 

Not saying that's what WILL happen, but if it does... that HOW it will happen.

 

When they have to pay him...and they will, the will end up with Flacco II (a way overpaid QB). Then they wont be able to field that top 5 OL and defense. Running as much as he does wont end well. Never has, never will.

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1 hour ago, Bri said:

I don't want to be the guy to critique the Ravens after beating them. They're a great team and probably just need some tweaks to get to the Supe.

I do think Derrick Henry is going to change the NFL back some. The LBs used to be bigger. They'd be drafted and have to put on weight to get to 250-260 pounds. Most rookies were too light to play. Nowadays they want them faster and lighter. That just makes it easier for him.

I'll give ya that human bowling ball Samaje Perrine didn't pan out, but there's gonna be more tough hitting backs. There always are. I bet some in the game are thinking of working on their stiff arm and maybe smacking some LBs like he does. My Titans started a 220 pound LB and he did pretty good yesterday. Ingram ran right over him. The few times I saw the Bucs, they used a FB as a RB for spells. The Titans didn't even show ya Blasingame yesterday but he's a big back too. 

Most of the top teams have FBs. That went away like a fad but the success rate seems to indicate that teams should bring that back. Can these little backers fend off a FB?

Anfernee Whatshisname probably gets drafted higher now. He's got great size and meanness. I don't think he's debatable as one of the top LBs, but he's definite. 

Lebeau ran three safeties in Pittsburgh and every team had some variation. The Ravens and Titans ran it years ago as did...maybe the Bears? Hawks? There were several teams. It was so successful yesterday against Baltimore, I wouldn't be surprised if some teams dusted off the old defensive playbooks and added a top safety where it might not seem like a big need predraft. There were a few good not great safeties this past offseason that were cut and bounced around like Cyprien. Maybe teams sign a guy like him and only keep five corners rather than six or on that call list? 

When Lebeau was with the Titans, every DB had to learn every DB spot and yep we saw Byard on a WR and corners at safety. I thought that was just the legend's way of teaching the game. I know he barked at corners tackling and safeties covering and it teaches technique so easily but maybe he was looking for subs though. Maybe teams can find an extra safety right on their roster? Belichick does this too or has done this. 

The Ravens, Titans, and Pats (although their TEs are lesser and were hurt often) go from 3 TE to 3 WR at the next snap. That is difficult to switch to when you've got DB injuries late in the year. The Eagles had injuries and didn't, but they did last year. Watch the Hawks do it today. LaFleur was with the Titans and the Pack have quality DBs so they'll be ready for it, but it still might work. It's that last target. Firkser last week. Pruitt had a big catch yesterday. Injuries make this an advantage late in the year that just isn't there as the season begins. This is yet another reason to add a better safety this offseason.

I think we'll see FBs return, bigger ILBs, and a better third safety on many teams next year

 

Interesting thoughts. But I don't think there are many Derrick Henry's. He is truly exceptional. So I am not sure going with big LBs or drafting big RBs is going to yield good results. Those Big LBs will get beat by quicker slot receivers and TEs in the passing game and there just aren't any backs as big as Henry who are fast as he is. And his stiff arm is exceptional.

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4 minutes ago, chinawildman said:

I'm half being tongue in cheek here by basically taking the debacle of the Roman/Kapernick offense and transposing it onto the Ravens.

That said, for Jackson to improve as a pocket passer he would have to buck a few trends. I can't think of too many running QBs that started in these one read and go offenses that eventually learned how to read defenses or became accurate outside passers.

The athletic QBs before him did though. Randall had a dry spell but he was awesome in Minny.

It's two and three reads and called the triple option. There were a lot of videos last week showing how the QB reads this guy and that guy. They even showed some Chip Kelly videos too. 

As far as Kaep, they talked about him running outside and San Fran only had one athletic TE that could block well and Roman needed more to pull it off so that's why Baltimore is loaded at TE. 

I thought it was a real interesting week.

I wish they'd dissect the Titans O which is more than just give it to Henry, but...I haven't seen that much these playoffs. They show a few running plays then jump to the other team. Rookie OC Arthur Smith has done a great job and I gotta pay for sites with scouts that break it down. It'd be nice to see them do it on TV for a change

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10 minutes ago, chinawildman said:

Titans D pitched a great game. Even during the Ravens first drive when they were moving the ball as they normally do I remember thinking I liked the way the Titans were playing this... They followed the anti-Roman/Kap blueprint to the tee... As a niners fan I've seen this all before.

As for Jackson, I don't see how you can account for 90% of the offensive plays, only score 12pts, turn the ball over 3 times (not to mention the weird cutbacks on the QB sneaks for turnover on downs) and NOT get blamed for the loss.

I'd expect more from his teammates. Even Brady didn't do it alone. 

 

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7 minutes ago, az_prof said:

Interesting thoughts. But I don't think there are many Derrick Henry's. He is truly exceptional. So I am not sure going with big LBs or drafting big RBs is going to yield good results. Those Big LBs will get beat by quicker slot receivers and TEs in the passing game and there just aren't any backs as big as Henry who are fast as he is. And his stiff arm is exceptional.

There might not have been a better moment in these playoffs than watching Derrick push Earl Thomas. He didn't score that play, but we loved it. 

https://youtu.be/7Y0UzeBROkA

Edited by -OZ-
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8 minutes ago, chinawildman said:

Titans D pitched a great game. Even during the Ravens first drive when they were moving the ball as they normally do I remember thinking I liked the way the Titans were playing this... They followed the anti-Roman/Kap blueprint to the tee... As a niners fan I've seen this all before.

As for Jackson, I don't see how you can account for 90% of the offensive plays, only score 12pts, turn the ball over 3 times (not to mention the weird cutbacks on the QB sneaks for turnover on downs) and NOT get blamed for the loss.

Turn it over six times if you count turning it over on downs.  Titans had a great game plan and executed it well.  Got to give them credit for being the better team yesterday.

On the other side of the field,  Andrews and Ingram injuries had to hurt and, at times, Jackson tried to do too much.  After all, he is still pretty young.  I would have used Gus Edwards more...  however, being in a deep hole had an impact on their play calling.  I blame Harbaugh's decision making - starting with 4th and 1 at your own 45 early in the game.  I know they did it all year - live by the sword, die by the sword.  I just didn't like the risk/reward sat that spot on the field at that point in the game.

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15 minutes ago, az_prof said:

Interesting thoughts. But I don't think there are many Derrick Henry's. He is truly exceptional. So I am not sure going with big LBs or drafting big RBs is going to yield good results. Those Big LBs will get beat by quicker slot receivers and TEs in the passing game and there just aren't any backs as big as Henry who are fast as he is. And his stiff arm is exceptional.

Probably true but the copycat league has had plenty of "responses" to just one player. 

Texas added the top HS RB and their coach didn't want him to play RB because they're a dime a dozen in the NFL. He turned him into a slot WR. As a freshman, they already had a good slot WR so he had to share time. Still, when he was in, he bounced off tacklers, led with his pads, and it looked like a clever idea. The Arizona Cardinals coach stole that and put Edmunds in the slot a whole lot for like four games. (Injuries changed this) He was the same kind of pain to tackle pain to matchup with there. That was the fastest I've ever seen a trend go to the NFL. The small fast LBers would be better for this matchup. Also, with the dime a dozen RBs, teams could easily find a RB to fill this new role so supply n demand would be excellent here. If your team doesn't have a top slot guy that can move the chains, why not try it? I'm real curious about this in the NFL next season. 

It could be anything. Sure I could be wrong. Just guessing. If I'm a GM in the AFC South, I'm definitely thinking about drafting Anfernee Jennings though. And in the AFC Central, I'm giving disciplined OLBs a real large advantage over other prospects.

Jennings 6-3 259 ILB https://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/3925350/anfernee-jennings

Edited by Bri

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3 minutes ago, Bri said:

The athletic QBs before him did though. Randall had a dry spell but he was awesome in Minny.

It's two and three reads and called the triple option. There were a lot of videos last week showing how the QB reads this guy and that guy. They even showed some Chip Kelly videos too. 

As far as Kaep, they talked about him running outside and San Fran only had one athletic TE that could block well and Roman needed more to pull it off so that's why Baltimore is loaded at TE. 

Cunningham is honestly the only guy I can think of.... maybe Vick to a lesser extent during his stint in Philly.

Kap's debut in 2012 had the niners ranked 11th on offense in both pts and yds. He looked unstoppable, ppl were instagramming "Kaepernicking", he was "the next big thing". The next year they ranked 11th in pts, but fell off a cliff in yds to 25th with largely the same personnel. The defense kept them in games but the offense was not nearly as efficient. The year after the wheels came off when the defense starting losing players and the one dimensional offense was completely exposed when it couldn't play from behind.

Objectively and statistically speaking Jackson will never have it as easy as he did this year. 

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3 minutes ago, chinawildman said:

Cunningham is honestly the only guy I can think of.... maybe Vick to a lesser extent during his stint in Philly.

Steve Young. I always forget him but he totally was. In his USFL and Tampa days, he ran an awful lot. The older he got, his legs were more for rolling out to buy time or get him in a good spot to hit Rice crossing over.

Maybe Baltimore needs to plan on Jackson's development like him?

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I think there were 4 critical drops on 3rd downs on balls that were on target and should have been caught. I've watched the drop by Andrews like 5 times now and I don't know what people are talking about with the ball placement. It was almost perfect. If his receivers weren't dropping catchable balls the narrative might be different today. 

Kudos to the Titans. Great game by them.

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11 minutes ago, Bri said:

Steve Young. I always forget him but he totally was. In his USFL and Tampa days, he ran an awful lot. The older he got, his legs were more for rolling out to buy time or get him in a good spot to hit Rice crossing over.

Maybe Baltimore needs to plan on Jackson's development like him?

Yea 2 positives in 3 decades over the overwhelming number of flameouts aren't good odds. 

I know it seems like I'm knocking on LJ. But he's a much better QB than Kap will ever be, he's just a better touch passer and more fluid runner with a lot more upside. I hope he learns the nuances of being a pocket passer.

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14 hours ago, rockaction said:

This kind of thinking is stinking thinking. Yes, we want to know what process consistently and viably leads to the most probabilistic success, but we have to admit when we have too many variables to deal with. Forget the term "analytics" for a minute, which is a colloquial expression for all things advanced stats to statistical minutiae. Think, in this particular case, win probability as we understand it. My contention is that the Ravens couldn't possibly know through statistics what they could have known from their eyes. It's the great baseball fight all over again, with even the SABR baseball guys admitting that football has way too many variables for the stats to be anything but a referral notice and interview, not a job.

I'm really hesitant to flip my hat into the ring and start having the same arguments I had in people in baseball in '97 about statistics and their limits. It's too stupid a debate to have all over again. Fangraphs and other sites and entities became popular and an invaluable because of its fusion of tracking and measurements (eye test) vs. raw statistics in isolation.

I say it, and say it strongly: The two will meet in the future. Anything else is academic. 

For the record, my remark about results vs process was definitely not directed toward you. I honestly can't remember if there was a specific post that set me off, or just a general feeling from some posters (I know there was a lot of results-oriented thinking from people complaining about Baltimore going for two after their TD), but my point was not to even bother engaging with those types of arguments. If at this point someone still doesn't understand the concept of results-oriented thinking, we're not going to have a very productive discussion.

Anyway, in your case I get where you're coming from, and I think you said in another post that we probably aren't that far apart, which I would agree with. I come from a direct-marketing background so I'm keenly aware of both the power and limitations of quantitative analysis. IMO the biggest problem is that people think that analytics give them answers, when in fact the most they can give you is confidence intervals. In some cases the intervals will be significant enough that they should guide your decision making, but in others the level of uncertainty will be high and you should weigh other factors into your decision.

In the case of last night I would probably have done the same thing as Harbaugh if I were in his shoes, but I understand your argument and don't think the decision was a total slam dunk. The main point I was pushing back against -- and this was a specific post I remember, although I'm fairly certain it wasn't you -- was the notion that going for it rather than kicking the FG was somehow a turning point in the game. I just don't see any evidence for that at all (unless someone wants to make the "momentum" argument, which, don't get me started.) Baltimore was going to lose that game for reasons that might have had an impact on their ability to convert that 4th down (injuries, uninspired play calling), but definitely weren't caused by the failure. If they had kicked the FG, most likely outcome is that they would have lost by 12 instead of 15.

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8 hours ago, barackdhouse said:

I think there were 4 critical drops on 3rd downs on balls that were on target and should have been caught. I've watched the drop by Andrews like 5 times now and I don't know what people are talking about with the ball placement. It was almost perfect. If his receivers weren't dropping catchable balls the narrative might be different today. 

Kudos to the Titans. Great game by them.

I think it was Fouts in the in-game commentary who wondered whether Andrews' injury impacted his ability to elevate for the ball on that play. Either way, I agree that one was definitely not on Lamar. The other INT, and the fumble on a play where he held the ball way too long, however, were all on him.

Anyway, I feel like this is ultimately a semantic debate. Lamar played pretty well, but not as good as his boxscore might lead you to believe. Rest of Ravens skill players were either hurt or didn't show up.

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5 minutes ago, zftcg said:

For the record, my remark about results vs process was definitely not directed toward you. I honestly can't remember if there was a specific post that set me off, or just a general feeling from some posters (I know there was a lot of results-oriented thinking from people complaining about Baltimore going for two after their TD), but my point was not to even bother engaging with those types of arguments. If at this point someone still doesn't understand the concept of results-oriented thinking, we're not going to have a very productive discussion.

Anyway, in your case I get where you're coming from, and I think you said in another post that we probably aren't that far apart, which I would agree with. I come from a direct-marketing background so I'm keenly aware of both the power and limitations of quantitative analysis. IMO the biggest problem is that people think that analytics give them answers, when in fact the most they can give you is confidence intervals. In some cases the intervals will be significant enough that they should guide your decision making, but in others the level of uncertainty will be high and you should weigh other factors into your decision.

In the case of last night I would probably have done the same thing as Harbaugh if I were in his shoes, but I understand your argument and don't think the decision was a total slam dunk. The main point I was pushing back against -- and this was a specific post I remember, although I'm fairly certain it wasn't you -- was the notion that going for it rather than kicking the FG was somehow a turning point in the game. I just don't see any evidence for that at all (unless someone wants to make the "momentum" argument, which, don't get me started.) Baltimore was going to lose that game for reasons that might have had an impact on their ability to convert that 4th down (injuries, uninspired play calling), but definitely weren't caused by the failure. If they had kicked the FG, most likely outcome is that they would have lost by 12 instead of 15.

I think I tread a little heavily with "stinking thinking." I was bringing my own experiences with the SABR guys back in the mid-90s to bear, not necessarily your tone or point. My apologies.

I should wake up on a better side of the bed, really.

I take your points. I take your and Cobbler1's points, actaully. If we could redirect some of the thoughts now about how to play the game in a fan-accessible format, we'd all be winners and have a better understanding of the game.

I mean, the greatest gain to Brian Burke was probably his hiring at ESPN. It was, however, a fan's greatest loss as I assume all his probability and data went there.

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12 minutes ago, zftcg said:

I think it was Fouts in the in-game commentary who wondered whether Andrews' injury impacted his ability to elevate for the ball on that play. Either way, I agree that one was definitely not on Lamar. The other INT, and the fumble on a play where he held the ball way too long, however, were all on him.

Anyway, I feel like this is ultimately a semantic debate. Lamar played pretty well, but not as good as his boxscore might lead you to believe. Rest of Ravens skill players were either hurt or didn't show up.

Yep

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1 minute ago, rockaction said:

I think I tread a little heavily with "stinking thinking." I was bringing my own experiences with the SABR guys back in the mid-90s to bear, not necessarily your tone or point. My apologies.

I should wake up on a better side of the bed, really.

I take your points. I take your and Cobbler1's points, actaully. If we could redirect some of the thoughts now about how to play the game in a fan-accessible format, we'd all be winners and have a better understanding of the game.

I mean, the greatest gain to Brian Burke was probably his hiring at ESPN. It was, however, a fan's greatest loss as I assume all his probability and data went there.

Eh, we're always arguing against ghosts. No offense taken. 

Curious: why was the Burke hiring bad for fans? I love that I can pull up a game on the ESPN app and see the in-game WP chart. Was the data more accessible in his pre-ESPN days? I'm reminded of a conversation I once had with the owner of a micro-brewery. He said that when your favorite craft brew gets acquired by one of the big boys, they will take the most popular beer and heavily ramp up distribution, but at the same time will kill off just about every other variation. Did something similar happen with Burke's data?

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31 minutes ago, zftcg said:

Eh, we're always arguing against ghosts. No offense taken. 

Curious: why was the Burke hiring bad for fans? I love that I can pull up a game on the ESPN app and see the in-game WP chart. Was the data more accessible in his pre-ESPN days? I'm reminded of a conversation I once had with the owner of a micro-brewery. He said that when your favorite craft brew gets acquired by one of the big boys, they will take the most popular beer and heavily ramp up distribution, but at the same time will kill off just about every other variation. Did something similar happen with Burke's data?

I think he had had tons of individual data -- for example, individual expected points added -- or he had linked to it. He had distance and down calculators, all of that stuff. I'm sure it's still kicking around somehwere, the question is one of finding it. I found it to be more of a valuable football tool than a fantasy one.

 

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TEN played old school football (a rarity these days) and stunned BAL. Great coaching and game plan. 

I fully expect them to run all over KC. 

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4 hours ago, Gachi said:

TEN played old school football (a rarity these days) and stunned BAL. Great coaching and game plan. 

I fully expect them to run all over KC. 

The TEN game scripts vs NE and BAL worked out perfectly for them in both games.  TEN got the lead in both games and they were able to rely on the defense and D. Henry.  If they get the lead against KC they certainly can exploit the KC run defense.  The big question is can they get the lead/stop KC enough to be able to give Henry enough carries?

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