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Peyton Manning or Christian McCaffrey?

Peyton Manning or Christian McCaffrey?  

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Knowing what you know right now, which of these two players would you rather have for the duration of their career?

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Odd comparison. QBs have much longer careers so seems like a no brainer knowing what we know NOW. We know Peyton os a HOF QB who threw tons of TDS for 15 (?) or so years? CMC may never play another down or he may be a HOFer but it’s highly unlikely CMC would produce all world numbers for a steady 15 seasons regardless. RBs just don’t last that long. 

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 Its still Manning, but its not out of the realm of possibility that CMC can have a better fantasy career. He'd need to maintain this level for at least another 4-5 years though.

 

Edited by travdogg

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A lot depends on the type of league.  In a Super flex or 2 QB league Manning is the no brainer choice.  1 qb league and it's a lot closer.  I probably still go with Peyton but I would have to think hard about it.

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PFR has Manning with 1070 career VBD (vs. QB12 in season totals), with 4 pts per pTD and 1 pt per 25 pYds.

McCaffrey has 567 VBD so far in PPR (vs. RB24 in season totals).

So I go with CMC, who is already more than halfway to matching Manning's career total.

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The single most important week in FF is week 16.  Check out Peyton over his career vs CMC over the last 2 seasons.  I have checked, and it may sway your decision.

 

 

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10 minutes ago, TheWinz said:

The single most important week in FF is week 16.  Check out Peyton over his career vs CMC over the last 2 seasons.  I have checked, and it may sway your decision.

 

 

I think I know where you are going with this.  Peyton sat out a lot at end of each season after wrapping up division/#1 seed/playoff birth while CMC's team doesn't seem to make playoffs much. 

For fantasy the answer is CMC. He is a stud. Peyton was very good for lots of years, but there would be that fear he wouldn't play at end of year.

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No brainer it’s Manning in a 2QB non ppr league 

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1 hour ago, smbkrypt24 said:

I think I know where you are going with this.  Peyton sat out a lot at end of each season after wrapping up division/#1 seed/playoff birth while CMC's team doesn't seem to make playoffs much. 

For fantasy the answer is CMC. He is a stud. Peyton was very good for lots of years, but there would be that fear he wouldn't play at end of year.

I don’t think the fear of Manning sitting has much to do with why McCaffrey is the no brainer, but you nailed it on that Manning was very good for lots of years but only truly elite for 2-3.  I have to imagine that McCaffrey’s past two seasons have likely exceeded even Manning’s elite years, and as an elite pass catching RB he’s got plenty more years do have a similar fantasy impact.

The only reason a fantasy owner takes Manning is the longevity of his career.  But that doesn’t mean as much as elite, difference making singular seasons.  A shrewd fantasy owner takes McCaffrey because he’s going to have a huge advantage there when all is said and done.


(As others have pointed out, lots of info missing to make a poll like this mean much...ppr/non, superflex, 4/6pt passing TD, etc).

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I found it easier to chose Manning because he had a full career that is almost guaranteed to be longer than McCaffrey's. Without injuries RBs tend to have a good 5 year stretch, with a few RB being more durable and many being less durable. For as good as Arian Foster was in his prime, he still really only had 4 good years (and they were not all consecutive, meaning he would be dead bench space for part of it). It also felt like Rivera was running McCaffrey into the ground to try and save his job, and while McCaffrey was not injured, it would not be a complete surprise if the number of touches he receives now impacts his durability later. 

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If you believe in the curse of 400 touches for RB's, there have been 14 RB's over the last 20 years to reach 400 in a season.  Of those, only 2 ever finished in the top 4 ever again.

And here are their fantasy finishes the following year: 2, 2, 6, 6, 8, 9, 11, 14, 15, 17, 20, 28, 36, (Bell missed the following season, but then finished 16)

 

Edited by TheWinz
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5 hours ago, SayWhat? said:

The only reason a fantasy owner takes Manning is the longevity of his career.  But that doesn’t mean as much as elite, difference making singular seasons.  A shrewd fantasy owner takes McCaffrey because he’s going to have a huge advantage there when all is said and done.

Eh, give me a top-5 QB for 15 straight years and I'll find some difference-making RBs along the way.  

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42 minutes ago, Ignoratio Elenchi said:

Eh, give me a top-5 QB for 15 straight years and I'll find some difference-making RBs along the way.  

True.  Peyton wasn't just an above average QB who played many seasons.  He missed 2011 and played half a season in his final year, but other than that, he played all 16 games every season.  His rookie season he was QB8, but then he finished no lower than QB6 his entire career, and averaged QB3 over 15 seasons.  Let that sink in  - never lower than QB6 for 15 straight years, and not lower than QB4 for 13 of those!  Brees is the only other QB I can think of that can compete with that.  He has been QB6 or better 11 straight years, but hasn't done it in the last 3, and wasn't a QB6 until his 5th season.

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9 minutes ago, TheWinz said:

True.  Peyton wasn't just an above average QB who played many seasons.  He missed 2011 and played half a season in his final year, but other than that, he played all 16 games every season.  His rookie season he was QB8, but then he finished no lower than QB6 his entire career, and averaged QB3 over 15 seasons.  Let that sink in  - never lower than QB6 for 15 straight years, and not lower than QB4 for 13 of those!  Brees is the only other QB I can think of that can compete with that.  He has been QB6 or better 11 straight years, but hasn't done it in the last 3, and wasn't a QB6 until his 5th season.

The other thing with the way this question was posed you know you get 15 seasons of Manning.  CMC could get injured next year and have a very good 3 yr career.  So based on what we know today that output for 15 guaranteed years is hard to pass up.

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19 hours ago, zed2283 said:

Knowing what you know right now, which of these two players would you rather have for the duration of their career?

Unless Manning is coming out of retirement, it's got to be Cmac.  Even if Manning un-retired, I'd still lean CMac.

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2 hours ago, Ignoratio Elenchi said:

Eh, give me a top-5 QB for 15 straight years and I'll find some difference-making RBs along the way.  

 

52 minutes ago, TheWinz said:

True.  Peyton wasn't just an above average QB who played many seasons.  He missed 2011 and played half a season in his final year, but other than that, he played all 16 games every season.  His rookie season he was QB8, but then he finished no lower than QB6 his entire career, and averaged QB3 over 15 seasons.  Let that sink in  - never lower than QB6 for 15 straight years, and not lower than QB4 for 13 of those!  Brees is the only other QB I can think of that can compete with that.  He has been QB6 or better 11 straight years, but hasn't done it in the last 3, and wasn't a QB6 until his 5th season.

Would be interesting to see what advantage Manning’s average of QB3 over his career provided his fantasy owners.  Better yet, a year by year analysis.  I’ll stand firm that QB3 doesn’t mean much year over year.  QB1 sometimes does, and Manning had a couple of those years.  But I’d wager the rest didn’t provide much of an advantage over QB6, QB8, or QB10.  

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3 hours ago, TheWinz said:

True.  Peyton wasn't just an above average QB who played many seasons.  He missed 2011 and played half a season in his final year, but other than that, he played all 16 games every season.  His rookie season he was QB8, but then he finished no lower than QB6 his entire career, and averaged QB3 over 15 seasons.  Let that sink in  - never lower than QB6 for 15 straight years, and not lower than QB4 for 13 of those!  Brees is the only other QB I can think of that can compete with that.  He has been QB6 or better 11 straight years, but hasn't done it in the last 3, and wasn't a QB6 until his 5th season.

This.  You guys are underestimating the value of having a "set it and forget it" top 3 QB for 15 years.  Forget trying to stream, find a fill-in, use extra roster spaces, whatever.  And in 15 years you can find a RB or two.

The guy who had Peyton in my dynasty league (his entire career) used to laugh at everyone for "overvaluing QBs."  Well you should have seen the scrambling he did for a long time after Manning was done.

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4 hours ago, BassNBrew said:

Unless Manning is coming out of retirement, it's got to be Cmac.  Even if Manning un-retired, I'd still lean CMac.

OK, I have to ask.  If CMC never played again, would his 3 yr career be comparable to Manning's?  If not (which I seriously hope you say), what kind of career would he need to be even with Manning?  1 more season in the top 3?  2 more in the top 3?  3 more in the top 6?  4 more in the top 6?  5 more in the top 12?  Obviously, CMC wouldn't need to finish RB6 or better for 15 straight seasons like Manning, but what kind of RB career would equal Manning's QB career?

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6 hours ago, Gally said:

The other thing with the way this question was posed you know you get 15 seasons of Manning.  CMC could get injured next year and have a very good 3 yr career.  So based on what we know today that output for 15 guaranteed years is hard to pass up.

This pretty much sums it up...

Interesting contradiction though as the general consensus here has always been to wait on QBs in favor of the RBs in one QB leagues.

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1 hour ago, TheWinz said:

OK, I have to ask.  If CMC never played again, would his 3 yr career be comparable to Manning's?  If not (which I seriously hope you say), what kind of career would he need to be even with Manning?  1 more season in the top 3?  2 more in the top 3?  3 more in the top 6?  4 more in the top 6?  5 more in the top 12?  Obviously, CMC wouldn't need to finish RB6 or better for 15 straight seasons like Manning, but what kind of RB career would equal Manning's QB career?

I'll dig into this more later regarding your questions.  My response was to the OP's question which read...Who would you rather have for the duration of their fantasy career?  I read that as this point going forward which is obviously absurd.  I'm here for the duration...now until the end. 

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3 hours ago, TheWinz said:

OK, I have to ask.  If CMC never played again, would his 3 yr career be comparable to Manning's?  If not (which I seriously hope you say), what kind of career would he need to be even with Manning?  1 more season in the top 3?  2 more in the top 3?  3 more in the top 6?  4 more in the top 6?  5 more in the top 12?  Obviously, CMC wouldn't need to finish RB6 or better for 15 straight seasons like Manning, but what kind of RB career would equal Manning's QB career?

CMac VBD pts 22, 143, and 215 = 260 (87 avg)

Manning VBD pts 13, 66, 99, 57, 43, 48, 129, 38, 122, 59, 36, 43, 57, 0, 60, 153, and 47 = 1070 (63 avg)

Based on raw VBD numbers Cmac would need 4 more seasons like this year to pass Manning.  I would probably adjust Cmacs numbers up based on the average length of career at RB compared to QB.  RBs have an average career length of 2.57 years while QBs average 4.44.  That means CMac needs to eclipse 619 pts to match Manning on a positional adjusted basis.  That works out to about 3 more seasons in the top 3.

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34 minutes ago, BassNBrew said:

CMac VBD pts 22, 143, and 215 = 260 (87 avg)

Manning VBD pts 13, 66, 99, 57, 43, 48, 129, 38, 122, 59, 36, 43, 57, 0, 60, 153, and 47 = 1070 (63 avg)

Based on raw VBD numbers Cmac would need 4 more seasons like this year to pass Manning.  I would probably adjust Cmacs numbers up based on the average length of career at RB compared to QB.  RBs have an average career length of 2.57 years while QBs average 4.44.  That means CMac needs to eclipse 619 pts to match Manning on a positional adjusted basis.  That works out to about 3 more seasons in the top 3.

Those are non-ppr numbers. There's also an addition error which is understating McCaffrey's totals. But in that format Manning is still the way to go.

With ppr:

On 1/16/2020 at 9:29 PM, ZWK said:

PFR has Manning with 1070 career VBD (vs. QB12 in season totals), with 4 pts per pTD and 1 pt per 25 pYds.

McCaffrey has 567 VBD so far in PPR (vs. RB24 in season totals).

So I go with CMC, who is already more than halfway to matching Manning's career total.

 

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On 1/17/2020 at 5:52 AM, TheWinz said:

The single most important week in FF is week 16.  Check out Peyton over his career vs CMC over the last 2 seasons.  I have checked, and it may sway your decision.

 

 

I'm not making the decision based on 2 games. 

22 hours ago, SayWhat? said:

 Manning was very good for lots of years but only truly elite for 2-3.  I 

I don't know if PFR's AV means much to anyone, but CMC's best 2 years are 16. Peyton had 12 years equal or better than 16. 

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The OP's question may be a bit too vague, but the question itself is a very good topic for discussion.  League scoring and starting requirements would have a huge impact, so let's assign those and carry on.  Let's say start 1 QB, and PPR scoring are the basics.  That way we can use this site's "Stats" feature for anyone to follow along.  Next, we can compare careers of Manning and a few random RB's.  Please play along and try not to guess which random RB's I have chosen.  I would add the names and hide them, but I don't know how.  It's the numbers that matter.  We can reveal the RB's later, but would you rather have:

Manning - QB8, QB4, QB3, QB3, QB4, QB2, QB2, QB3, QB1, QB3, QB6, QB4, QB2, missed 2011, QB5, QB1, QB4, QB32 (played half season)

or

Random RB #1 - RB2, RB2, RB32, RB23, RB10, RB6, RB5, RB17, RB12, RB56, RB113 - career spanned 11 seasons

or

Random RB #2 - RB42, RB5, RB7, RB14, RB5, RB16, RB17, RB10, RB18, RB21, RB13, RB12, RB20, RB47, RB50 - career spanned 15 seasons

or

Random RB #3 - RB34, RB9, RB2, RB15, RB15, RB8, RB12, RB10, RB17, RB30, RB28, RB122 - career spanned 12 seasons

or

Random RB #4 - RB71, RB1, RB3, RB3, RB47, RB5, RB64, RB102 - career spanned 8 seasons

Last, just let me say I understand there can be a big difference between a RB1 who blows away all other RB's that year vs one that is ahead by a small margin, just as there can be a large gap between QB's 2 & 3 in a given year.  I think we can still discuss without nit-picking these details.

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9 hours ago, BassNBrew said:

I'll dig into this more later regarding your questions.  My response was to the OP's question which read...Who would you rather have for the duration of their fantasy career?  I read that as this point going forward which is obviously absurd.  I'm here for the duration...now until the end. 

You should read it as the totality of their career.  Sorry if the OP was vague.

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In a start 1qb PPR league, how much more is Mcaffrey worth than Mahomes?  

I might very well take Mahomes (assuming we get his production from day 1) over Manning because I think Mahomes will be a better fantasy QB when all is said and done than Manning was.

I would clearly take Mcaffrey over Mahomes (again assuming we are talking about getting everyone's production from day 1).  

Of course there is the obvious risk that CMC could get hurt or retire or whatever this year, but he is a league winner.  Manning and his production was nice and stable, but he wasnt really a league winner.  

Plus look at what you can pull in a trade for CMC.  That can easily be the gift that keeps on giving for a long long time if you want it to be.  

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28 minutes ago, ghostguy123 said:

Of course there is the obvious risk that CMC could get hurt or retire or whatever this year, but he is a league winner. 

Feel like there's a lot of recency bias going on here.  McCaffrey had a great year, no doubt, but the McCaffrey owner didn't win my league this year (he lost to the Lamar Jackson owner).  Let's not overstate how good he was/is/might be going forward.

I don't even understand the basis for the comparison between him and Manning, it's not like he had a once-in-a-lifetime dominating performance, and it's also not like he's been great for a long time.  He's had 2 great years so far and he was only RB1 in one of them.  How many great fantasy RBs came and went during Peyton Manning's entire career?  Every couple of years there's a new one.  There's no way I'd trade 15 years of top-5 QB production for the latest hot hand at RB.  I'll just grab the next one.  

How many league championships do you think CMC gets you?  I'll give you one for this year, although as I pointed out that was not necessarily the case.  Whatever reasonable number you pick, I guarantee I can take Manning's entire career and win at least as many. 

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8 minutes ago, Ignoratio Elenchi said:

 

How many league championships do you think CMC gets you?  I'll give you one for this year, although as I pointed out that was not necessarily the case.  Whatever reasonable number you pick, I guarantee I can take Manning's entire career and win at least as many. 

How many titles did manning win people?

Let's not overstate the importance of a top 5 QB in a start 1 QB PPR league.

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8 minutes ago, Ignoratio Elenchi said:

Feel like there's a lot of recency bias going on here.  McCaffrey had a great year, no doubt, but the McCaffrey owner didn't win my league this year (he lost to the Lamar Jackson owner).  Let's not overstate how good he was/is/might be going forward.

I don't even understand the basis for the comparison between him and Manning, it's not like he had a once-in-a-lifetime dominating performance, and it's also not like he's been great for a long time.  He's had 2 great years so far and he was only RB1 in one of them.  How many great fantasy RBs came and went during Peyton Manning's entire career?  Every couple of years there's a new one.  There's no way I'd trade 15 years of top-5 QB production for the latest hot hand at RB.  I'll just grab the next one.  

How many league championships do you think CMC gets you?  I'll give you one for this year, although as I pointed out that was not necessarily the case.  Whatever reasonable number you pick, I guarantee I can take Manning's entire career and win at least as many. 

Recency bias?  Not like he had a once in a lifetime dominating performance?!  McCaffrey just scored 471 points in ppr, for 29.5ppg.  Name me players that have exceeded that singular season and how many points they scored.  I bet you only need one of your hands to count them.  So that fact that McCaffrey owner didn’t win your league holds no weight, just the same as me saying the Manning owner NEVER won my league.  
 

How many great QBs come and go?  Give me McCaffrey and I can grab the next great one...Mahomes, Cam, Wilson, Brady, Rodgers, Luck, Brees, Watson, etc.  And the difference between them and a “Peyton Manning” is negligible.  The difference between an elite RB and a middle of the road starting RB is massive.

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4 minutes ago, ghostguy123 said:

How many titles did manning win people?

:shrug: It'll vary by league and whatnot.  The Manning owner won my league a few times, but obviously that may not have been the case in every league.

The reality is, a single player doesn't usually win you any titles.  McCaffrey's performance this year wasn't great enough to do it in my league.  You need a good team all around.  If you can lock up top-5 QB production for 15 years and never have to worry about it, most people will find a way to win a handful of championships in that span.  

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12 minutes ago, ghostguy123 said:

How many titles did manning win people?

Let's not overstate the importance of a top 5 QB in a start 1 QB PPR league.

This.  My God.  It can’t be stated more clearly than this.  Besides maybe two elite seasons, the only thing Manning truly provided was a rock at QB and a slight advantage at the position over 2/3 of the league.  Any advantage he provided over the rest of the league’s QBs was negligible in terms of ppg.

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6 minutes ago, Ignoratio Elenchi said:

:shrug: It'll vary by league and whatnot.  The Manning owner won my league a few times, but obviously that may not have been the case in every league.

The reality is, a single player doesn't usually win you any titles.  McCaffrey's performance this year wasn't great enough to do it in my league.  You need a good team all around.  If you can lock up top-5 QB production for 15 years and never have to worry about it, most people will find a way to win a handful of championships in that span.  

I dont mind worrying about it.  It's not super difficult to get good QB production.

"Not having to worry about it" doesnt really provide any value for me.  Unless you are jot active at all, I dont see the point.

Edited by ghostguy123

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Just now, SayWhat? said:

Recency bias?  Not like he had a once in a lifetime dominating performance?!  McCaffrey just scored 471 points in ppr, for 29.5ppg.  Name me players that have exceeded that singular season and how many points they scored.  I bet you only need one of your hands to count them.

You're probably right, he had a great year.  But by definition if I need more than one finger to count them, it wasn't a once in a lifetime performance.  I've been playing fantasy football since the early 1990s.  If this was a debate between, say, Peyton Manning and LaDanian Tomlinson or something, it's a lot more clear cut that you take the RB.  But Manning's career vs. the career of a guy who's been dominant for the last 4 months?  Yes, that's some recency bias.  

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1 minute ago, Ignoratio Elenchi said:

You're probably right, he had a great year.  But by definition if I need more than one finger to count them, it wasn't a once in a lifetime performance.  I've been playing fantasy football since the early 1990s.  If this was a debate between, say, Peyton Manning and LaDanian Tomlinson or something, it's a lot more clear cut that you take the RB.  But Manning's career vs. the career of a guy who's been dominant for the last 4 months?  Yes, that's some recency bias.  

So who do you take straight up right now in a start 1 QB PPR league, mahomes or mcaffrey, and by how much?

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Just now, ghostguy123 said:

So who do you take straight up right now in a start 1 QB PPR league, mahomes or mcaffrey, and by how much?

That's obviously an entirely different debate, and it's unclear how it's relevant to this thread. 

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8 minutes ago, Ignoratio Elenchi said:

That's obviously an entirely different debate, and it's unclear how it's relevant to this thread. 

Not relevant?  Weird.

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14 minutes ago, Ignoratio Elenchi said:

You're probably right, he had a great year.  But by definition if I need more than one finger to count them, it wasn't a once in a lifetime performance.  I've been playing fantasy football since the early 1990s.  If this was a debate between, say, Peyton Manning and LaDanian Tomlinson or something, it's a lot more clear cut that you take the RB.  But Manning's career vs. the career of a guy who's been dominant for the last 4 months?  Yes, that's some recency bias.  

I actually think it may have been a one finger season, which you’re casually discounting.  Has 471 points ever been eclipsed in a ppr league?

Tomlinson was the guy I checked.  He had 474 when he ripped off 2,323 total yards and 31 TDs. So I guess the answer is “yes.”  Priest Holmes best looked to be 442.  Who am I missing?  Regardless, I’m not sure you’re fully aware or acknowledging of just how dominant a season McCaffrey just had.  

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Just now, SayWhat? said:

I actually think it may have been a one finger season, which you’re casually discounting.  Has 471 points ever been eclipsed in a ppr league?

Tomlinson was the guy I checked.  He had 474 when he ripped off 2,323 total yards and 31 TDs. So I guess the answer is “yes.”  Priest Holmes best looked to be 442.  Who am I missing?  Regardless, I’m not sure you’re fully aware or acknowledging of just how dominant a season McCaffrey just had.  

In what ways am I not fully aware of just how dominant a season McCaffrey had?  Of course he did.  It doesn't change my answer to the OP for reasons that have already been explained.  :shrug: 

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5 minutes ago, Ignoratio Elenchi said:

In what ways am I not fully aware of just how dominant a season McCaffrey had?  Of course he did.  It doesn't change my answer to the OP for reasons that have already been explained.  :shrug: 

 

29 minutes ago, Ignoratio Elenchi said:

You're probably right, he had a great year.  But by definition if I need more than one finger to count them, it wasn't a once in a lifetime performance.  

You were saying his season was great, but not “once in a lifetime.”  No?  It essentially was, unless I’m forgetting about a season more dominant than Tomlinson.

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1 minute ago, SayWhat? said:

You were saying his season was great, but not “once in a lifetime.”  No?  It essentially was, unless I’m forgetting about a season more dominant than Tomlinson.

Not sure where we disagree.  Tomlinson's season alone is proof that McCaffrey's season wasn't literally once in a lifetime.  

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5 minutes ago, Ignoratio Elenchi said:

Not sure where we disagree.  Tomlinson's season alone is proof that McCaffrey's season wasn't literally once in a lifetime.  

:lmao:

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35 minutes ago, Ignoratio Elenchi said:

Not sure where we disagree.  Tomlinson's season alone is proof that McCaffrey's season wasn't literally once in a lifetime.  

Ok twice in a lifetime.   

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5 minutes ago, ghostguy123 said:

I wonder if the people who prefer Manning are inactive owners.  

I'll take a Peyton Manning for 17 years and HOF career over McCaffrey  every day of the week and twice on Sunday.   The NFL stands for "Not For Long", especially for RBs.

Edited by JohnnyU

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For those siding with CMC, it would be nice to see your projections for the next 3 seasons.  I don't even need full numbers, just how they will finish among RB's.  RB1, RB1, RB1?  RB1, RB2, RB2?  RB2, RB4, RB5?  Come on, sack up and spit out some numbers, because we already know Manning's.

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5 minutes ago, TheWinz said:

For those siding with CMC, it would be nice to see your projections for the next 3 seasons.  I don't even need full numbers, just how they will finish among RB's.  RB1, RB1, RB1?  RB1, RB2, RB2?  RB2, RB4, RB5?  Come on, sack up and spit out some numbers, because we already know Manning's.

Top 5 for RB for 2-3 years.  Maybe top 10 for a few years after that.

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10 minutes ago, JohnnyU said:

I'll take a Peyton Manning for 17 years and HOF career over McCaffrey  every day of the week and twice on Sunday.   The NFL stands for "Not For Long", especially for RBs.

We talking the real NFL or fantasy?

Manning was a great fantasy QB, which (in a start 1 QB league with PPR) translates to being a very good FF player to own.  Not elite.  A QB cant be an elite fantasy player unless they score so far ahead of the competition to the point we have never seen before.  

QB points are easier to generate.  

Again as some others have said, a lot of this is league specifics dependent.   If you feel very strongly about manning over CMC what league specs are you using?

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