I think I know where you are going with this. Peyton sat out a lot at end of each season after wrapping up division/#1 seed/playoff birth while CMC's team doesn't seem to make playoffs much.The single most important week in FF is week 16. Check out Peyton over his career vs CMC over the last 2 seasons. I have checked, and it may sway your decision.
I don’t think the fear of Manning sitting has much to do with why McCaffrey is the no brainer, but you nailed it on that Manning was very good for lots of years but only truly elite for 2-3. I have to imagine that McCaffrey’s past two seasons have likely exceeded even Manning’s elite years, and as an elite pass catching RB he’s got plenty more years do have a similar fantasy impact.I think I know where you are going with this. Peyton sat out a lot at end of each season after wrapping up division/#1 seed/playoff birth while CMC's team doesn't seem to make playoffs much.
For fantasy the answer is CMC. He is a stud. Peyton was very good for lots of years, but there would be that fear he wouldn't play at end of year.
Eh, give me a top-5 QB for 15 straight years and I'll find some difference-making RBs along the way.The only reason a fantasy owner takes Manning is the longevity of his career. But that doesn’t mean as much as elite, difference making singular seasons. A shrewd fantasy owner takes McCaffrey because he’s going to have a huge advantage there when all is said and done.
True. Peyton wasn't just an above average QB who played many seasons. He missed 2011 and played half a season in his final year, but other than that, he played all 16 games every season. His rookie season he was QB8, but then he finished no lower than QB6 his entire career, and averaged QB3 over 15 seasons. Let that sink in - never lower than QB6 for 15 straight years, and not lower than QB4 for 13 of those! Brees is the only other QB I can think of that can compete with that. He has been QB6 or better 11 straight years, but hasn't done it in the last 3, and wasn't a QB6 until his 5th season.Eh, give me a top-5 QB for 15 straight years and I'll find some difference-making RBs along the way.
The other thing with the way this question was posed you know you get 15 seasons of Manning. CMC could get injured next year and have a very good 3 yr career. So based on what we know today that output for 15 guaranteed years is hard to pass up.True. Peyton wasn't just an above average QB who played many seasons. He missed 2011 and played half a season in his final year, but other than that, he played all 16 games every season. His rookie season he was QB8, but then he finished no lower than QB6 his entire career, and averaged QB3 over 15 seasons. Let that sink in - never lower than QB6 for 15 straight years, and not lower than QB4 for 13 of those! Brees is the only other QB I can think of that can compete with that. He has been QB6 or better 11 straight years, but hasn't done it in the last 3, and wasn't a QB6 until his 5th season.
Unless Manning is coming out of retirement, it's got to be Cmac. Even if Manning un-retired, I'd still lean CMac.Knowing what you know right now, which of these two players would you rather have for the duration of their career?
Eh, give me a top-5 QB for 15 straight years and I'll find some difference-making RBs along the way.
Would be interesting to see what advantage Manning’s average of QB3 over his career provided his fantasy owners. Better yet, a year by year analysis. I’ll stand firm that QB3 doesn’t mean much year over year. QB1 sometimes does, and Manning had a couple of those years. But I’d wager the rest didn’t provide much of an advantage over QB6, QB8, or QB10.True. Peyton wasn't just an above average QB who played many seasons. He missed 2011 and played half a season in his final year, but other than that, he played all 16 games every season. His rookie season he was QB8, but then he finished no lower than QB6 his entire career, and averaged QB3 over 15 seasons. Let that sink in - never lower than QB6 for 15 straight years, and not lower than QB4 for 13 of those! Brees is the only other QB I can think of that can compete with that. He has been QB6 or better 11 straight years, but hasn't done it in the last 3, and wasn't a QB6 until his 5th season.
This. You guys are underestimating the value of having a "set it and forget it" top 3 QB for 15 years. Forget trying to stream, find a fill-in, use extra roster spaces, whatever. And in 15 years you can find a RB or two.True. Peyton wasn't just an above average QB who played many seasons. He missed 2011 and played half a season in his final year, but other than that, he played all 16 games every season. His rookie season he was QB8, but then he finished no lower than QB6 his entire career, and averaged QB3 over 15 seasons. Let that sink in - never lower than QB6 for 15 straight years, and not lower than QB4 for 13 of those! Brees is the only other QB I can think of that can compete with that. He has been QB6 or better 11 straight years, but hasn't done it in the last 3, and wasn't a QB6 until his 5th season.
OK, I have to ask. If CMC never played again, would his 3 yr career be comparable to Manning's? If not (which I seriously hope you say), what kind of career would he need to be even with Manning? 1 more season in the top 3? 2 more in the top 3? 3 more in the top 6? 4 more in the top 6? 5 more in the top 12? Obviously, CMC wouldn't need to finish RB6 or better for 15 straight seasons like Manning, but what kind of RB career would equal Manning's QB career?Unless Manning is coming out of retirement, it's got to be Cmac. Even if Manning un-retired, I'd still lean CMac.
This pretty much sums it up...The other thing with the way this question was posed you know you get 15 seasons of Manning. CMC could get injured next year and have a very good 3 yr career. So based on what we know today that output for 15 guaranteed years is hard to pass up.
I'll dig into this more later regarding your questions. My response was to the OP's question which read...Who would you rather have for the duration of their fantasy career? I read that as this point going forward which is obviously absurd. I'm here for the duration...now until the end.OK, I have to ask. If CMC never played again, would his 3 yr career be comparable to Manning's? If not (which I seriously hope you say), what kind of career would he need to be even with Manning? 1 more season in the top 3? 2 more in the top 3? 3 more in the top 6? 4 more in the top 6? 5 more in the top 12? Obviously, CMC wouldn't need to finish RB6 or better for 15 straight seasons like Manning, but what kind of RB career would equal Manning's QB career?
CMac VBD pts 22, 143, and 215 = 260 (87 avg)OK, I have to ask. If CMC never played again, would his 3 yr career be comparable to Manning's? If not (which I seriously hope you say), what kind of career would he need to be even with Manning? 1 more season in the top 3? 2 more in the top 3? 3 more in the top 6? 4 more in the top 6? 5 more in the top 12? Obviously, CMC wouldn't need to finish RB6 or better for 15 straight seasons like Manning, but what kind of RB career would equal Manning's QB career?
Those are non-ppr numbers. There's also an addition error which is understating McCaffrey's totals. But in that format Manning is still the way to go.CMac VBD pts 22, 143, and 215 = 260 (87 avg)
Manning VBD pts 13, 66, 99, 57, 43, 48, 129, 38, 122, 59, 36, 43, 57, 0, 60, 153, and 47 = 1070 (63 avg)
Based on raw VBD numbers Cmac would need 4 more seasons like this year to pass Manning. I would probably adjust Cmacs numbers up based on the average length of career at RB compared to QB. RBs have an average career length of 2.57 years while QBs average 4.44. That means CMac needs to eclipse 619 pts to match Manning on a positional adjusted basis. That works out to about 3 more seasons in the top 3.
PFR has Manning with 1070 career VBD (vs. QB12 in season totals), with 4 pts per pTD and 1 pt per 25 pYds.
McCaffrey has 567 VBD so far in PPR (vs. RB24 in season totals).
So I go with CMC, who is already more than halfway to matching Manning's career total.
I'm not making the decision based on 2 games.The single most important week in FF is week 16. Check out Peyton over his career vs CMC over the last 2 seasons. I have checked, and it may sway your decision.
I don't know if PFR's AV means much to anyone, but CMC's best 2 years are 16. Peyton had 12 years equal or better than 16.Manning was very good for lots of years but only truly elite for 2-3. I
You should read it as the totality of their career. Sorry if the OP was vague.I'll dig into this more later regarding your questions. My response was to the OP's question which read...Who would you rather have for the duration of their fantasy career? I read that as this point going forward which is obviously absurd. I'm here for the duration...now until the end.
Feel like there's a lot of recency bias going on here. McCaffrey had a great year, no doubt, but the McCaffrey owner didn't win my league this year (he lost to the Lamar Jackson owner). Let's not overstate how good he was/is/might be going forward.Of course there is the obvious risk that CMC could get hurt or retire or whatever this year, but he is a league winner.
How many titles did manning win people?How many league championships do you think CMC gets you? I'll give you one for this year, although as I pointed out that was not necessarily the case. Whatever reasonable number you pick, I guarantee I can take Manning's entire career and win at least as many.
Recency bias? Not like he had a once in a lifetime dominating performance?! McCaffrey just scored 471 points in ppr, for 29.5ppg. Name me players that have exceeded that singular season and how many points they scored. I bet you only need one of your hands to count them. So that fact that McCaffrey owner didn’t win your league holds no weight, just the same as me saying the Manning owner NEVER won my league.Feel like there's a lot of recency bias going on here. McCaffrey had a great year, no doubt, but the McCaffrey owner didn't win my league this year (he lost to the Lamar Jackson owner). Let's not overstate how good he was/is/might be going forward.
I don't even understand the basis for the comparison between him and Manning, it's not like he had a once-in-a-lifetime dominating performance, and it's also not like he's been great for a long time. He's had 2 great years so far and he was only RB1 in one of them. How many great fantasy RBs came and went during Peyton Manning's entire career? Every couple of years there's a new one. There's no way I'd trade 15 years of top-5 QB production for the latest hot hand at RB. I'll just grab the next one.
How many league championships do you think CMC gets you? I'll give you one for this year, although as I pointed out that was not necessarily the case. Whatever reasonable number you pick, I guarantee I can take Manning's entire career and win at least as many.
It'll vary by league and whatnot. The Manning owner won my league a few times, but obviously that may not have been the case in every league.How many titles did manning win people?
This. My God. It can’t be stated more clearly than this. Besides maybe two elite seasons, the only thing Manning truly provided was a rock at QB and a slight advantage at the position over 2/3 of the league. Any advantage he provided over the rest of the league’s QBs was negligible in terms of ppg.How many titles did manning win people?
Let's not overstate the importance of a top 5 QB in a start 1 QB PPR league.
I dont mind worrying about it. It's not super difficult to get good QB production.It'll vary by league and whatnot. The Manning owner won my league a few times, but obviously that may not have been the case in every league.
The reality is, a single player doesn't usually win you any titles. McCaffrey's performance this year wasn't great enough to do it in my league. You need a good team all around. If you can lock up top-5 QB production for 15 years and never have to worry about it, most people will find a way to win a handful of championships in that span.
You're probably right, he had a great year. But by definition if I need more than one finger to count them, it wasn't a once in a lifetime performance. I've been playing fantasy football since the early 1990s. If this was a debate between, say, Peyton Manning and LaDanian Tomlinson or something, it's a lot more clear cut that you take the RB. But Manning's career vs. the career of a guy who's been dominant for the last 4 months? Yes, that's some recency bias.Recency bias? Not like he had a once in a lifetime dominating performance?! McCaffrey just scored 471 points in ppr, for 29.5ppg. Name me players that have exceeded that singular season and how many points they scored. I bet you only need one of your hands to count them.
So who do you take straight up right now in a start 1 QB PPR league, mahomes or mcaffrey, and by how much?You're probably right, he had a great year. But by definition if I need more than one finger to count them, it wasn't a once in a lifetime performance. I've been playing fantasy football since the early 1990s. If this was a debate between, say, Peyton Manning and LaDanian Tomlinson or something, it's a lot more clear cut that you take the RB. But Manning's career vs. the career of a guy who's been dominant for the last 4 months? Yes, that's some recency bias.
That's obviously an entirely different debate, and it's unclear how it's relevant to this thread.So who do you take straight up right now in a start 1 QB PPR league, mahomes or mcaffrey, and by how much?
Not relevant? Weird.That's obviously an entirely different debate, and it's unclear how it's relevant to this thread.
I actually think it may have been a one finger season, which you’re casually discounting. Has 471 points ever been eclipsed in a ppr league?You're probably right, he had a great year. But by definition if I need more than one finger to count them, it wasn't a once in a lifetime performance. I've been playing fantasy football since the early 1990s. If this was a debate between, say, Peyton Manning and LaDanian Tomlinson or something, it's a lot more clear cut that you take the RB. But Manning's career vs. the career of a guy who's been dominant for the last 4 months? Yes, that's some recency bias.
In what ways am I not fully aware of just how dominant a season McCaffrey had? Of course he did. It doesn't change my answer to the OP for reasons that have already been explained.I actually think it may have been a one finger season, which you’re casually discounting. Has 471 points ever been eclipsed in a ppr league?
Tomlinson was the guy I checked. He had 474 when he ripped off 2,323 total yards and 31 TDs. So I guess the answer is “yes.” Priest Holmes best looked to be 442. Who am I missing? Regardless, I’m not sure you’re fully aware or acknowledging of just how dominant a season McCaffrey just had.
In what ways am I not fully aware of just how dominant a season McCaffrey had? Of course he did. It doesn't change my answer to the OP for reasons that have already been explained.
You were saying his season was great, but not “once in a lifetime.” No? It essentially was, unless I’m forgetting about a season more dominant than Tomlinson.You're probably right, he had a great year. But by definition if I need more than one finger to count them, it wasn't a once in a lifetime performance.
Not sure where we disagree. Tomlinson's season alone is proof that McCaffrey's season wasn't literally once in a lifetime.You were saying his season was great, but not “once in a lifetime.” No? It essentially was, unless I’m forgetting about a season more dominant than Tomlinson.
Not sure where we disagree. Tomlinson's season alone is proof that McCaffrey's season wasn't literally once in a lifetime.
Ok twice in a lifetime.Not sure where we disagree. Tomlinson's season alone is proof that McCaffrey's season wasn't literally once in a lifetime.
I'll take a Peyton Manning for 17 years and HOF career over McCaffrey every day of the week and twice on Sunday. The NFL stands for "Not For Long", especially for RBs.I wonder if the people who prefer Manning are inactive owners.
Top 5 for RB for 2-3 years. Maybe top 10 for a few years after that.For those siding with CMC, it would be nice to see your projections for the next 3 seasons. I don't even need full numbers, just how they will finish among RB's. RB1, RB1, RB1? RB1, RB2, RB2? RB2, RB4, RB5? Come on, sack up and spit out some numbers, because we already know Manning's.
We talking the real NFL or fantasy?I'll take a Peyton Manning for 17 years and HOF career over McCaffrey every day of the week and twice on Sunday. The NFL stands for "Not For Long", especially for RBs.