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Iceman's 2020 Draft Tiers (Post Draft - Complete) (1 Viewer)

tangfoot said:
Realistically, how much weight can a player gain in the month-ish since the Senior Bowl?  I put a lot of skepticism into what I consider to be "water weight" for players who magically weigh in far better at the Combine.
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Most I think was Eno Benjamin who weighed in at 195 at the Senior Bowl. If he runs well I won’t care because it will suggest to me that he can maintain his athleticism at that weight. If he doesn’t then I think I’d lean to he plays at 195 and that’s what he should be viewed as.

 
tangfoot said:
Realistically, how much weight can a player gain in the month-ish since the Senior Bowl?  I put a lot of skepticism into what I consider to be "water weight" for players who magically weigh in far better at the Combine.
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I'm keeping track here. Darius Anderson gained 13 pounds, Eno Benjamin 12, Stephen Guidry 10, several players including Ke'Shawn Vaughn & Chase Claypool gained 9, etc.

 
ZWK said:
I'm keeping track here. Darius Anderson gained 13 pounds, Eno Benjamin 12, Stephen Guidry 10, several players including Ke'Shawn Vaughn & Chase Claypool gained 9, etc.
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You've been doing this for a while, have you looked into these dubious weight changes and whether or not they are relevant?

 
tangfoot said:
You've been doing this for a while, have you looked into these dubious weight changes and whether or not they are relevant?
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I haven't tried to look at that systematically. My guess is that I don't have enough data. A 5 lb. change in weight (or whatever) doesn't change a player's chances of NFL success by that much, on average, so you'd need a pretty big sample size to figure out whether the higher weight or the lower weight better represented how good the player is.

 
ZWK said:
I haven't tried to look at that systematically. My guess is that I don't have enough data. A 5 lb. change in weight (or whatever) doesn't change a player's chances of NFL success by that much, on average, so you'd need a pretty big sample size to figure out whether the higher weight or the lower weight better represented how good the player is.
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I feel like you'd have to have access to the scales that are in the locker rooms/training rooms and to otherwise be a part of the team during the season. There is no way to verify or get at the question of whether a big spike between the Senior Bowl and the Combine is attributed to water weight or such. Like maybe they bounce down a few pounds the very next week. If we knew what they were *actually* playing at during the season then maybe we could make some sense but otherwise yeah there just isn't enough data.

 
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Post Combine QB (I would say this is final pre-draft)

Tier 1: Burrow, Tua, Hurts, Herbert

Tier 2: Love, Fromm

Tier 3: McDonald, Gordon, Eason

 
Post Combine TE (subject to change)

Tier 1: Trautman, Hunter Bryant, Okwuegbunam

Tier 2: Thad Moss*, Kmet, Asiasi, Breeland*, Deguara

Tier 3: Hopkins, Sullivan, Ha. Bryant, Pinkney, O’Grady, Taumoepeau

 
Post Combine WR (subject to major changes)

Tier 1: Reagor, Lamb, Shenault*, Jefferson, Jeudy, Mims

Tier 2: Higgins, Gabriel Davis, Pittman, Claypool, DPJ, Aiyuk, Ruggs, Hamler*

Tier 3: Cody White, Hodgins, Edwards*, Ty. Johnson*, AGG, Bowden*, Lipscomb

Tier 4: Mason Kinsey*, Cephus, Duvernay, Proche, Bayless, Quez Watkins, Joe Reed, Callaway

Tier 5: KJ Hill, V. Jefferson*, J. Jennings, K. Merritt*, Mooney, C. Johnson*, Patmon, Coulter, Hightower

Tier 6: I. Wright*, Osborn, Mack, Q. Davis, J. Johnson, A. Parker, A. Fuller

 
Iceman03 said:
Post Combine WR (subject to major changes)

Tier 1: Reagor, Lamb, Shenault*, Jefferson, Jeudy, Mims

Tier 2: Higgins, Gabriel Davis, Pittman, Claypool, DPJ, Aiyuk, Ruggs, Hamler*

Tier 3: Cody White, Hodgins, Edwards*, Ty. Johnson*, AGG, Bowden*, Lipscomb

Tier 4: Mason Kinsey*, Cephus, Duvernay, Proche, Bayless, Quez Watkins, Joe Reed, Callaway

Tier 5: KJ Hill, V. Jefferson*, J. Jennings, K. Merritt*, Mooney, C. Johnson*, Patmon, Coulter, Hightower

Tier 6: I. Wright*, Osborn, Mack, Q. Davis, J. Johnson, A. Parker, A. Fuller
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What are the asterisks for?

 
Post Combine RB (Subject to change)

Tier 1: Taylor, Akers, Swift, Dobbins*

Tier 2: CEH, Vaughn, Dillon, Gibson, Benjamin, Kelley

Tier 3: Perine, Moss, McFarland, Robinson

Tier 4: Warren*, Dallas, Anderson, Hasty, Taylor, Dowdle, Phillips

Satellite: Calais, Evans, Taylor, Killins*, Ahmed, Bellamy, Guerriero*, Ward*, Corbin*

Watchlist: Leake, Lemay, Feaster*, Huntley*, Tony Jones, Minter*, Barnett*, Herrien, Olonilua

 
Top 36 

  1. JT
  2. Akers
  3. Swift
  4. Dobbins
  5. Reagor
  6. Lamb
  7. Jefferson
  8. CEH
  9. Shenault
  10. Jeudy
  11. Mims
  12. Vaughn
  13. Dillon
  14. Gibson
  15. Burrow
  16. Tua
  17. Benjamin
  18. Kelley
  19. Higgins
  20. G. Davis
  21. Pittman
  22. Claypool
  23. DPJ
  24. Aiyuk
  25. Ruggs
  26. Herbert
  27. Hurts
  28. Hamler
  29. Edwards
  30. Trautman
  31. Hunter Bryant
  32. Okwuegbunam
  33. Hodgins
  34. Cody White
  35. Tyler Johnson
  36. Bowden
 
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Iceman03 said:
Top 36 

  1. JT
  2. Akers
  3. Swift
  4. Dobbins
  5. Reagor
  6. Lamb
  7. Jefferson
  8. CEH
  9. Shenault
  10. Jeudy
  11. Mims
  12. Vaughn
  13. Dillon
  14. Gibson
  15. Burrow
  16. Tua
  17. Benjamin
  18. Kelley
  19. Higgins
  20. G. Davis
  21. Pittman
  22. Claypool
  23. DPJ
  24. Aiyuk
  25. Ruggs
  26. Herbert
  27. Hurts
  28. Ruggs
  29. Hamler
  30. Edwards
  31. Trautman
  32. Hunter Bryant
  33. Okwuegbunam
  34. Hodgins
  35. Cody White
  36. Tyler Johnson
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Looks like you have Ruggs twice.  At 25 and 28.  

 
no moss in your top 36, and i have him top 3 (for RB). funny and great how everyone sees things differently.

 
Boone22 said:
Looks like you have Ruggs twice.  At 25 and 28.  
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Fixed. Sorry, working on things at 4am is not smart. 

Soulfly3 said:
no moss in your top 36, and i have him top 3 (for RB). funny and great how everyone sees things differently.
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Don’t hate Moss, if he’s like Mattison or Singletary in the first three rounds he’ll end up a lot higher in the end. I can ignore his poor workout but I want the NFL to do the same first. Top 3 I can’t agree with though. Top 4 is a lock unless Dobbins runs a 4.7 or something dumb.

 
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Iceman:

Any plans to update your tiers........ probably after the NFL Draft?

I did learn tons from your 2.29.2020 updated listing. Thanks much. (see you in the June Mock)

 
Final pre-draft tiers start here.

QB (Ranked in order)

Tier 1: Burrow, Tua, Hurts, Herbert

Tier 2: Cole McDonald, Fromm, Anthony Gordon

Tier 3: Jordan Love, Jacob Eason

 
RB (Ranked in order)

Tier 1: JT, Akers, Swift, Dobbins, CEH

Tier 2: A.Gibson, Vaughn, Dillon, Benjamin, Kelley

Tier 3: Perine, Moss, McFarland, James Robinson, D. Evans

 
WR (ranked in order)

Tier 1: Reagor, Lamb, Jefferson, Shenault, Jeudy

Tier 2: Mims, Claypool, B.Edwards

Tier 3: AGG, T. Johnson, Hodgins, Higgins

Tier 4: Mason Kinsey, Pittman, G.Davis, Aiyuk, Hamler, Bowden Jr., DPJ, Ruggs

Tier 5 (for those of you in uber deep leagues): Darnell Mooney, Aaron Parker, Quez Watkins, James Proche, Kirk Merritt, D. Duvernay, K. Lipscomb, M.Callaway, Cephus, C.White, O.Bayless

 
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TE (Ranked in order)

Tier 1:  Trautman, Hunter Bryant, Albert O., C.Kmet

Tier 2: T.Moss, Devin Asiasi, J. Breeland, J. Deguara 

I really wouldn’t touch anyone in tier two or below unless they go in the first four rounds 🤷🏻‍♂️ I do not like Harrison Bryant to preempt that conversation. Small, unathletic and unable to play inline is not how I like my TE’s.

 
Iceman03 said:
TE (Ranked in order)

Tier 1:  Trautman, Hunter Bryant, Albert O., C.Kmet

Tier 2: T.Moss, Devin Asiasi, J. Breeland, J. Deguara 

I really wouldn’t touch anyone in tier two or below unless they go in the first four rounds 🤷🏻‍♂️ I do not like Harrison Bryant to preempt that conversation. Small, unathletic and unable to play inline is not how I like my TE’s.
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I like this post.  However, I would probably move Kmet to #2 behind Trautman.

 
Andy Dufresne said:
Generally, I like it.

Surprised to see Reagor that high and Ruggs that low, though.
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Ya, I know people won’t like that. I don’t hate Ruggs, he’s got fun film and he’s clearly a player the NFL likes a lot. He just scores poorly from a production standpoint and that means a lot to me. 

 
JohnnyU said:
I like this post.  However, I would probably move Kmet to #2 behind Trautman.
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I think that argument is generally fair and I wouldn’t fight it too much. These TE’s are pretty puke worthy. Situation and draft capital will settle out their final order for me. 

 
Also, if Claypool goes as a TE I would say he is an easy TE1 in this class. He’s going to be a bit perplexing as he should be a top 100 guy and that’s a big price to pay to put someone in a new position. Reminds me of Devin Funchess a few years back.

 
Iceman03 said:
Ya, I know people won’t like that. I don’t hate Ruggs, he’s got fun film and he’s clearly a player the NFL likes a lot. He just scores poorly from a production standpoint and that means a lot to me. 
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I have Ruggs as a DND, so I see this as very appropriate. Thanks much Iceman and for everyone's comments.

 
Iceman03 said:
Also, if Claypool goes as a TE I would say he is an easy TE1 in this class. He’s going to be a bit perplexing as he should be a top 100 guy and that’s a big price to pay to put someone in a new position. Reminds me of Devin Funchess a few years back.
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I can't remember who, but wasn't there a hybrid WR/TE a few years back that everyone was all over that didn't work out?  I think a WR moving to TE is a very risky from a fantasy point of view.  I would still have Trautman #1 over Claypool.

 
JohnnyU said:
I can't remember who, but wasn't there a hybrid WR/TE a few years back that everyone was all over that didn't work out?  I think a WR moving to TE is a very risky from a fantasy point of view.  I would still have Trautman #1 over Claypool.
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Pretty sure it was Funchess. Even heading into the draft people didn’t know what position he would play.

 
Iceman03 said:
Pretty sure it was Funchess. Even heading into the draft people didn’t know what position he would play.
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Samuels (Steelers) was another, but he stayed at RB.  Looks like he should have tried TE :)

 
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Iceman03 said:
Final pre-draft tiers start here.

QB (Ranked in order)

Tier 1: Burrow, Tua, Hurts, Herbert

Tier 2: Cole McDonald, Fromm, Anthony Gordon

Tier 3: Jordan Love, Jacob Eason
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He definitely has his critics, but from a FF perspective this is really low for Love. 

Hurts could be really good, but the general consensus seems flipped from your list for these 2.  McDonald and Gordon haven't been discussed much. I don't recall seeing either taken in the first 3 rounds. While Love is often a 1st. You clearly disagree on him but where go you see the others getting drafted?

 
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-OZ- said:
He definitely has his critics, but from a FF perspective this is really low for Love. 

Hurts could be really good, but the general consensus seems flipped from your list for these 2.  McDonald and Gordon haven't been discussed much. I don't recall seeing either taken in the first 3 rounds. While Love is often a 1st. You clearly disagree on him but where go you see the others getting drafted?
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I’d like Gordon or McDonald in New England, New Orleans or Tampa Bay. Not sure if they’ll go first three rounds or not. I certainly don’t understand Love or Eason but only have them there because I think they’ll go early. Probably not a good way to go about things if you were to use it in a predraft rookie draft but it’s just keeping my perspective of where I saw guys before they were picked.

 
Hurts over Love all day. I don’t see the appeal in Love unless he lands in the right spot. He seems like a project and he’s not a runner.

 
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Ilov80s said:
Hurts over Love all day. I don’t see the appeal in Love unless he lands in the right spot. He seems like a project and he’s not a runner.
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Guy was a turnover machine. Boggles the mind that he’s being compared to Mahomes in some circles. Reminds me more of Tyree Jackson.

 
Final Post Draft

Tier    QB
1    Joe Burrow
1    Tua Tagavolia
1    Justin Herbert
2    Jalen Hurts
2    Jordan Love
    
Tier    RB
1    JT
1    CEH
1    Akers
1    Dobbins
1    Swift
2    Vaughn
2    Moss
3    AJ Dillon
3    Darrynton Evans
4    Josh Kelley
4    Anthony McFarland
4    La'Mical Perine
4    Eno Benjamin
4    Jason Huntley
4    DeeJay Dallas
4    Raymond Calais
    
Tier    WR
1    Jalen Reagor
1    Justin Jefferson
1    CeeDee Lamb
1    Laviska Shenault
2    Jerry Jeudy
2    Tee Higgins
2    Brandon Aiyuk
3    Bryan Edwards
3    Henry Ruggs
3    Denzel Mims
3    Chase Claypool
3    Michael Pittman
4    Antonio Gibson
4    Lynn Bowden Jr.
4    KJ Hamler
5    Devin Duvernay
5    Van Jefferson
5    Tyler Johnson 
5    Gabrial Davis
5    AGG
5    Darnell Mooney
5    DPJ
5    Quintez Cephus
5    Quez Watkins
5    Isaiah Hodgins
5    Joe Reed
5    James Proche
5    John Hightower
5    Dezmon Patton 
    
Tier    TE
1    Adam Trautman
1    Cole Kmet
2    Devin Asiasi
2    Josiah Deguara
2    Dalton Keene
3    Albert O
3    Brycen Hopkins
3    Harrison Bryant
3    Stephen Sullivan
3    Colby Parkinson

 
Hearing Deguara is going to be a FB... probably move him off the board. I’d consider Albert O late but wouldn’t touch the rest of the TE’s. Also think Dillon probably belongs in Tier 2 and maybe ahead of Moss after seeing some people’s models I respect. Probably too much athleticism and opportunity with being a 2nd round pick. They probably envision him as their own Derrick Henry even though Lafluer limited Henry behind Dion Lewis.

ETA: Bowden is rumored to be listed as a RB... I would have him before Darryton Evans in tier 3.

 
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Couple more changes with draft season in full effect... Antonio Gibson back to RB. I have him the top of tier 2 RB’s. Got a feeling I’m going to get a lot of Dalton Keene late even though I’m pretty TE avoidant of this class. Nice to see Hurts slipping too with being behind Wentz.

 
Iceman03 said:
Couple more changes with draft season in full effect... Antonio Gibson back to RB. I have him the top of tier 2 RB’s. Got a feeling I’m going to get a lot of Dalton Keene late even though I’m pretty TE avoidant of this class. Nice to see Hurts slipping too with being behind Wentz.
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Bowden is going to be a RB, too, no?

 
Iceman03 said:
I liked him more at WR and Gibson more at RB
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I grabbed Gibson as a RB in FFPC yesterday at 2.04. It was a reach but my draft went really well and I got 95% of what I wanted. This was a luxury pick for me. I'm thinking about Bowden in the mid 3rd now but there are honestly other names I like more. 

 
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