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The Commish

Florida Politics

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On 2/20/2020 at 12:02 PM, zftcg said:

I've heard Graham make that case and I'm not convinced. She was the same bland, vanilla centrist Dems have run here for decades without winning (and there was a real-time experiment of a similar centrist running for Senate; he lost by the same amount). I was planning on voting for her until about a week out, when I saw an ad for her that was so full of poll-tested gobbledy####, I just couldn't bring myself to be that cynical.

Huh, was wondering why such an inoffensive word tripped the auto-censor, then realized I may have inadvertently slurred Asians.

So just to ensure there is no confusion, much like Muhammad Ali, I ain't got no quarrel with them Viet Cong. Also, I loved "Parasite"!

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On 2/20/2020 at 1:49 PM, fatguyinalittlecoat said:

"Donald Trump will not be the nominee"

Debbie Wasserman Shultz saying "we're a long way from knowing" is absurd.  Very possible Sanders has a stranglehold on the nomination in two weeks.

I think we have plenty of evidence that woman is a moron.

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Many in the Cuban community are extremely passionate about the subject of Cuba in general and Castro in particular. If Bernie is the nominee, he can kiss Florida's electoral college votes goodbye.

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1 minute ago, NorvilleBarnes said:

Many in the Cuban community are extremely passionate about the subject of Cuba in general and Castro in particular. If Bernie is the nominee, he can kiss Florida's electoral college votes goodbye.

If he becomes the nominee he should just focus on flipping back the rust belt.  He could never win FL.

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42 minutes ago, NorvilleBarnes said:

Many in the Cuban community are extremely passionate about the subject of Cuba in general and Castro in particular. If Bernie is the nominee, he can kiss Florida's electoral college votes goodbye.

Didn't the majority of  Cubans in Florida vote for Trump in 2016?

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4 minutes ago, Mile High said:

Didn't the majority of  Cubans in Florida vote for Trump in 2016?

Yes and I have a very strong feeling they will again in 2020.

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9 minutes ago, Mile High said:

Didn't the majority of  Cubans in Florida vote for Trump in 2016?

While there are a ton of Cubans here, the Latino community has been growing increasingly diverse, with lots of Argentinians, Brazilians, and more recently, Venezuelans. They tend to be more liberal (other than maybe the Venezuelans), as do second-generation Cubans, but “socialism” is still a pretty toxic word across the spectrum

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21 hours ago, Punxsutawney Phil said:

You win FL you win the race 

I feel like the influence of Florida has been waning in recent years.  15-20 years ago, this is absolutely true.  Now?  Maybe not so much?  I had to go back and watch the 60 Minutes thing myself to see what you guys were talking about.  Very little talk about it up here in the middle part of the state.  

I did see a new commercial from Mikey up here (and it was the reason I came back into the thread) but it feels like he's floundering.  Why would he run an ad in Florida suggesting HE'd be tougher on guns than Bernie?  People here now are thinking, 'hmmm....might not like him on other things, but he does seem more reasonable on my guns than the others'.  I had to watch it a couple times to make sure I was hearing it correctly.

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1 hour ago, The Commish said:

I feel like the influence of Florida has been waning in recent years.  15-20 years ago, this is absolutely true.  Now?  Maybe not so much?  I had to go back and watch the 60 Minutes thing myself to see what you guys were talking about.  Very little talk about it up here in the middle part of the state.  

Don't worry, they're talking about it enough in South Florida to cover everywhere else.

1 hour ago, The Commish said:

I did see a new commercial from Mikey up here (and it was the reason I came back into the thread) but it feels like he's floundering.  Why would he run an ad in Florida suggesting HE'd be tougher on guns than Bernie?  People here now are thinking, 'hmmm....might not like him on other things, but he does seem more reasonable on my guns than the others'.  I had to watch it a couple times to make sure I was hearing it correctly.

My understanding is that Bloomberg has been doing a bunch of national buys. I was in Vermont last weekend and saw a ton of Bloomberg ads (he obviously would have no reason to target there). I do agree that in many parts of Florida, attacking Bernie on gun control is going to help him more than it hurts him.

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3 minutes ago, zftcg said:

Don't worry, they're talking about it enough in South Florida to cover everywhere else.

My understanding is that Bloomberg has been doing a bunch of national buys. I was in Vermont last weekend and saw a ton of Bloomberg ads (he obviously would have no reason to target there). I do agree that in many parts of Florida, attacking Bernie on gun control is going to help him more than it hurts him.

I'm not an expert on Florida politics but in most places it probably helps in the general election but hurts in the primary election.  Given that Bernie pretty much has the primary already won, I think it's an overall positive for Bernie.

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1 minute ago, fatguyinalittlecoat said:

I'm not an expert on Florida politics but in most places it probably helps in the general election but hurts in the primary election.  Given that Bernie pretty much has the primary already won, I think it's an overall positive for Bernie.

Will actually be interesting to see if Bernie specifically uses his historically moderate stance on gun control in the general election to soften his image as a radical and reach some of those Obama-Trump voters in the Midwest (though potentially at the expense of female suburban Romney-Clinton voters, who care about gun control a lot).

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1 minute ago, zftcg said:

Will actually be interesting to see if Bernie specifically uses his historically moderate stance on gun control in the general election to soften his image as a radical and reach some of those Obama-Trump voters in the Midwest (though potentially at the expense of female suburban Romney-Clinton voters, who care about gun control a lot).

Interesting. But even if it works, I tend to think that in Florida especially its offset by his praise of Fidel Castro. That’s pretty problematic. 

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31 minutes ago, timschochet said:

Interesting. But even if it works, I tend to think that in Florida especially its offset by his praise of Fidel Castro. That’s pretty problematic. 

Based on my preliminary reading of the tea leaves, it seems like at worst it's an actual offset.  A large portion in south Florida turned off by his comments regarding Castro and a large portion of the rest of the state encouraged by his gun stance.  If you transpose a voting map for the "sweet spots" for each party in Florida over the areas that are put off or encouraged, you'll see many more spots that are Trump favorable being "encouraged" than spots where Dems are "discouraged".  I don't know what the coverage of Bernie's Castro comments have been in the northern part of the state, but I haven't seen much discussion about it here in central florida at all...had to look up what all the hub bub was about myself.

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1 hour ago, timschochet said:

Interesting. But even if it works, I tend to think that in Florida especially its offset by his praise of Fidel Castro. That’s pretty problematic. 

Yeah, when I said suburban moms, I wasn't thinking Florida as much as places like Philly, Atlanta or Phoenix. I really think Bernie is going to have a lot of trouble making inroads in Florida. As I mentioned upthread, South Florida drives the Democratic vote, and Latinos and Jews are key elements of the South Florida electorate.

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Anyone here ever listen to "Florida Roundup" on NPR?  Last Friday was talking about the demographics of the state and fell in line with the discussion we were having here with respect to Sanders and his potential performance here in Florida.  They talked about Latinos primarily and how non monolithic this group has become and that they don't believe the traditional takes of years passed apply as much anymore.  

Taking it all the way up to the 10,000 foot level the arguments seemed to be:

1.  The Cuban portion of the population is becoming less influential as other groups of the Latino world flock to the state.  
2.  Inside the Cuban demographic there is an "old school" and an ever growing "new school" and that is also bringing into question traditional views on how the demo will vote.

 

They also talked about the impacts of allowing former felons vote as well as mail in ballots being a huge tool for getting people engaged in the process.  Panel seemed to think the people in Florida were lazy  :lol: 

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21 minutes ago, The Commish said:

1.  The Cuban portion of the population is becoming less influential as other groups of the Latino world flock to the state.  
2.  Inside the Cuban demographic there is an "old school" and an ever growing "new school" and that is also bringing into question traditional views on how the demo will vote.

I'm not saying either of those things are wrong. I'm just saying I've been hearing about both of those trends for years, and there always seems to be an underlying assumption behind it that they will eventually turn Florida blue. My non-scientific guess as to why that hasn't happened yet is what I've mentioned elsewhere in this thread: Conservative retirees keep flocking here, and Dems have done a horrible job mobilizing the Latino vote. Still, I'm not ruling out the possibility that Dems eventually get their #### together. Demographically (if not structurally), Florida remains a 50/50 state, so anything that shift a few points in either direction has the potential to really disrupt the status quo.

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52 minutes ago, zftcg said:

I'm not saying either of those things are wrong. I'm just saying I've been hearing about both of those trends for years, and there always seems to be an underlying assumption behind it that they will eventually turn Florida blue. My non-scientific guess as to why that hasn't happened yet is what I've mentioned elsewhere in this thread: Conservative retirees keep flocking here, and Dems have done a horrible job mobilizing the Latino vote. Still, I'm not ruling out the possibility that Dems eventually get their #### together. Demographically (if not structurally), Florida remains a 50/50 state, so anything that shift a few points in either direction has the potential to really disrupt the status quo.

I may have not conveyed my point very well.  I wasn't arguing for the state turning blue.  I was talking about "the take" of how the Cuban population (as well as Latinos in general) here is changing compared to the last 20-30 years.  Are you saying, all these things said about the Cuban population have been a narrative here for all that time?  I'll take your word for it if so.  It does leave me wondering where all the "young" Cubans have been coming from all that time though.

I can't speak to the job the Dems have done in the past.  Compared to other states I have lived in, they appear to be pretty competitive, but can't quite get over the hump.  That's significantly better than states where there is ZERO question on whether or not the GOP is going to win.  

And the point of the panel was more about what now constitutes the "Latino population" in this state...at one point it was synonymous with Cuban.  That doesn't seem to be the case anymore if we look at the state as a whole.  Large groups from PR are here in the Orlando area.  Groups from Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador and Nicaragua can be found in large numbers throughout the state.  

Obviously, with that influx we have an influx of old white people too that will typically counter balance some of that.  It will be interesting to see what the Census turns up this time around.

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Well gear up for the ads on airwaves, mailers, phone calls and texts to start pouring in. Already got a text from the Bloomberg campaign asking if they could count on my support. It's going to be an onslaught for the next two weeks, then the campaigns will move on and forget about us until the general.

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3 hours ago, JamieMurphy said:

Well gear up for the ads on airwaves, mailers, phone calls and texts to start pouring in. Already got a text from the Bloomberg campaign asking if they could count on my support. It's going to be an onslaught for the next two weeks, then the campaigns will move on and forget about us until the general.

Wait...worse than it's been already?  That can't be possible :wall: 

On a side note....as anyone been following the research project between NPR and South Florida with regard to the political impact on the I4 corridor?  Really interesting to listen to.  One thing seems crystal clear.  Healthcare and environment are of the utmost importance in this area.  The rest is noise.  Hopefully the candidates recognize this and hammer home their plans.  The initial problem I see with Biden is he's a "fix Obamacare" guy and people around me HATE Obamacare...they want more...a public option at minimum.  

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Just now, The Commish said:

Wait...worse than it's been already?  That can't be possible :wall: 

On a side note....as anyone been following the research project between NPR and South Florida with regard to the political impact on the I4 corridor?  Really interesting to listen to.  One thing seems crystal clear.  Healthcare and environment are of the utmost importance in this area.  The rest is noise.  Hopefully the candidates recognize this and hammer home their plans.  The initial problem I see with Biden is he's a "fix Obamacare" guy and people around me HATE Obamacare...they want more...a public option at minimum.  

A public option is literally his proposed fix for Obamacare. :shrug:

Unless you're saying that their problem is just with the name "Obamacare"? I remember a story from a few years ago where people in Kentucky were at an event trying to get folks to sign up for KYnect, which was the health-care exchange the state set up in the wake of the ACA's passage. One guy, after hearing their explanation of how it worked, said, "Sounds great! As long as it's not that damn Obamacare!"

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8 minutes ago, The Commish said:

On a side note....as anyone been following the research project between NPR and South Florida with regard to the political impact on the I4 corridor?  

By the way, thanks for the heads up. Will check it out. Any idea if I can download those episodes as podcasts?

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3 minutes ago, zftcg said:

A public option is literally his proposed fix for Obamacare. :shrug:

Unless you're saying that their problem is just with the name "Obamacare"? I remember a story from a few years ago where people in Kentucky were at an event trying to get folks to sign up for KYnect, which was the health-care exchange the state set up in the wake of the ACA's passage. One guy, after hearing their explanation of how it worked, said, "Sounds great! As long as it's not that damn Obamacare!"

I guess I need to read up a bit more.  Last time I paid attention to his speaches, it was "fix Obamacare...don't replace it".  If his proposal is a public option, that's replacing it best I can tell.  I don't think it would hurt to get away from the term Obamacare either.  Remember those studies where people loved ACA but hated Obamacare?

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1 minute ago, The Commish said:

I guess I need to read up a bit more.  Last time I paid attention to his speaches, it was "fix Obamacare...don't replace it".  If his proposal is a public option, that's replacing it best I can tell.  I don't think it would hurt to get away from the term Obamacare either.  Remember those studies where people loved ACA but hated Obamacare?

No, it's not replacing it. In fact, a PO was part of the original plan for Obamacare, but didn't survive Congress. The idea is that every exchange, whether state or federal, would offer people the choice of a government-run plan alongside the private plans that are already there. It would either spur the private plans to remain competitive or else serve as a gradual transition to Medicare for All (since you could theoretically continue expanding the PO while reducing premiums).

Anyway, I'm far from an expert myself, so yeah, we should both probably read up more. My understanding is that Biden's plan is far more expansive than anything that was proposed in the original ACA.

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2 minutes ago, zftcg said:

No, it's not replacing it. In fact, a PO was part of the original plan for Obamacare, but didn't survive Congress. The idea is that every exchange, whether state or federal, would offer people the choice of a government-run plan alongside the private plans that are already there. It would either spur the private plans to remain competitive or else serve as a gradual transition to Medicare for All (since you could theoretically continue expanding the PO while reducing premiums).

Anyway, I'm far from an expert myself, so yeah, we should both probably read up more. My understanding is that Biden's plan is far more expansive than anything that was proposed in the original ACA.

Fully aware....but what we have is what passed.  I gave Obama huge credit for his forethought on a public option and was really disappointed when he didn't fight harder for it in negotiations.  What we have today is so incredibly different than what we'd have under a public option, I can't see an honest way of saying it's not a replacement.  TO BE CLEAR, I think the replacement is EXACTLY what we need.  Reading his site is more encouraging.  He's evolved on this during this primary run.  I think that's a good step forward.  Now he needs to hammer that home here in central Florida.  That message is NOT getting out around here.  I'm relatively engaged compared to most around me and I didn't know about this change in philosophy.  They need to be hit over the head with this around here.  It can't be insinuated...it can't be suggested.  He needs to be all in and very clear.  He does that and his strength here grows.

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https://twitter.com/davidaxelrod/status/1235580200227762176

Quote

In new #AxeFiles, fmr FL Gov nominee @AndrewGillum says @BernieSanders praise of Castro will spur @JoeBiden rout in 3/17 primary. Quoting FL Hispanic leader: “It was like listening to Trump after Charlottesville say there were good people on both sides.” http://CNN.com/AxeFiles

I have my issues with Gillum, but he's a smart guy. I think when the history of this primary is written, we'll look back on Bernie's Castro comments as a turning point that crystallized the fears a lot of people had about his electability. Because every Democrat in Florida seemed to instantly recognize how damaging it was.

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19 hours ago, zftcg said:

https://twitter.com/davidaxelrod/status/1235580200227762176

I have my issues with Gillum, but he's a smart guy. I think when the history of this primary is written, we'll look back on Bernie's Castro comments as a turning point that crystallized the fears a lot of people had about his electability. Because every Democrat in Florida seemed to instantly recognize how damaging it was.

By the way, I definitely recommend checking out that podcast (link is in the tweet). For one thing, it reminded me that there is a lot to like about Gillum, and if he can correct some of the mistakes he made in 2018, he could be formidable.

He addresses the FBI investigation he was under, which was the one part of the interview that felt like spin. Mind you, I don't think he did anything seriously wrong, but I do think it was very politically damaging for a young, relatively unknown African American to have his name linked to corruption. What he says is that they did focus groups on the issue and people mostly dismissed it by saying, "All politicians do that stuff", which he says he found appalling, but indicates it didn't hurt him that much.

Where I thought he was particularly sharp was in addressing other factors that hurt him. For one thing, he says he didn't fully appreciate how damaging the "socialism" charge would be, particularly in South Florida. Second, he talks about the sharp decline in Democratic voter registration since the high point of 2008, which is why he's put so much effort in the past two years into a registration drive. I think in particular if he can unlock the Latino vote, that could really shift the balance statewide.

He was vague on his future plans, although he did say he doesn't think he's done with elective office. I suspect DeSantis will be hard to take down in '22 unless Trump is re-elected and his second term is a complete disaster, which is certainly a possibility. Rubio is also up the same year, so I could see Gillum going that route as well.

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Florida poised to stamp out Sanders campaign

Quote

Now that Michigan broke Bernie Sanders' heart Tuesday, Florida looks ready to crush his campaign next week.

No state accentuates Sanders’ weaknesses and Biden’s strengths quite like Florida, which votes Tuesday with a payload of 219 delegates, more than any other state left on the primary calendar besides New York.

More than a quarter of the Democratic primary electorate is traditionally African American, Biden’s base. Two-thirds are typically 50 or older, also Biden’s stronghold. And about 60 percent in polls consider themselves moderates or even conservatives — ditto, advantage Biden.

But it gets worse for Sanders. Hispanic voters have been a bright spot for the Vermont in several states that have already voted. But the opposite is true in Florida.

A poll released Wednesday showed Florida Hispanics, by a 34-point margin, look unfavorably upon a candidate who describes himself as a “socialist.” Sanders exacerbated his problem during his “60 Minutes” interview last month, when he declined to roundly condemn Fidel Castro’s Cuban Revolution, instead giving the dictator credit for literacy and health care gains.

 

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50 minutes ago, Leroy Hoard said:

Florida another key swing state come fall.

I don't know if Biden is going to win it. I don't know if he's going to need to win it (since 2000, Florida has been a swing state but not the swing state). But I will say, I feel a hell of a lot better knowing that he will compete there, as opposed to giving up on the state months ahead of the election, which I fear might have happened with Bernie.

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1 hour ago, zftcg said:

I don't know if Biden is going to win it. I don't know if he's going to need to win it (since 2000, Florida has been a swing state but not the swing state). But I will say, I feel a hell of a lot better knowing that he will compete there, as opposed to giving up on the state months ahead of the election, which I fear might have happened with Bernie.

True, the home of many ex cubans that hated Castro would not be kind to Bernie.

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2 minutes ago, Leroy Hoard said:

True, the home of many ex cubans that hated Castro would not be kind to Bernie.

That was my initial thought as well. But as the article I linked to above points out, it's not just the Cubans:

Quote

A Sanders campaign adviser who spoke on condition of anonymity after the interview dismissed the controversy as “not a big deal. This is red-baiting from the establishment and really it’s just Cubans from Miami who care about this and they’re Republicans and they’re not voting for us anyway.”

But a new poll conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy survey for Telemundo Station Group shows that Florida Hispanics of different backgrounds — Cuba, Puerto Rico or Central or South America — disfavor a socialist candidate by 18 percent to 70 percent.

 

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3 minutes ago, NorvilleBarnes said:

Saw today Biden was leading Bernie by 44 points. 

LINK

At this point, the question isn't whether Biden will win. It's whether it will be enough of a blowout to cause Bernie to drop out on Wednesday.

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On 3/4/2020 at 9:51 AM, zftcg said:
On 3/4/2020 at 9:42 AM, The Commish said:

On a side note....as anyone been following the research project between NPR and South Florida with regard to the political impact on the I4 corridor?  

By the way, thanks for the heads up. Will check it out. Any idea if I can download those episodes as podcasts?

Not sure how I missed this question....you can google "I4 votes" and some of it will pop up.  Most of it is on wfme.org and the USF page.  That's who's collaborated on the survey.  NOTE:  It's a survey, not a poll and the ones doing the legwork recognize that diversity is lacking in those who chose to participate.  There wasn't much they could do about that, so they went ahead with it anyway just to get people talking.  What's of note is that women and suburban households are the best represented and happen to be two demographics alleged to be very important in 2020.

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35 minutes ago, Punxsutawney Phil said:

Whoa, search Andrew Gillum on Twitter.

Yikes! Looks like Candace Owens broke the story, and so far I've only seen it discussed by various MAGA types. But she certainly seems to have the police report.

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1 hour ago, Punxsutawney Phil said:

Whoa, search Andrew Gillum on Twitter.

That doesn't sound like social distancing to me.

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If it was Gillum why didn't they bust him? It said someone with the same birth date just left and "went home". This was in S. Beach. I thought Gillum lived in Tallahassee.

Very fishy at this point...

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13 minutes ago, Joe Mammy said:

If it was Gillum why didn't they bust him? It said someone with the same birth date just left and "went home". This was in S. Beach. I thought Gillum lived in Tallahassee.

Very fishy at this point...

How many black Andrew gillums with the same birthday could there be in FL?

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17 minutes ago, Joe Mammy said:

I thought Gillum lived in Tallahassee.

Can't #### where you eat

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I'm more concerned that a guy with a secret life like that could have been compromised or blackmailed had someone known these secrets.  He could have been a governor puppet.

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Posted (edited)

Gillum statement:

Quote

“I was in Miami last night for a wedding celebration when first responders were called to assist one of my friends. While I had too much to drink, I want to be clear that I have never used methamphetamines,” he said. “I apologize to the people of Florida for the distraction this has caused our movement.”

 

Edited by zftcg

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15 minutes ago, zftcg said:

Gillum statement:

“I was in Miami last night for a wedding celebration when first responders were called to assist one of my friends. While I had too much to drink, I want to be clear that I have never used methamphetamines,” he said. “I apologize to the people of Florida for the distraction this has caused our movement.”

You know it was an awesome wedding celebration when "first responders" are part of the story.

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I just saw a post from John Morgan on FB that said he's praying for Gillum. 

Can't get anymore guilty than that.

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29 minutes ago, JamieMurphy said:

All schools in Florida closed through March 27th.

My son’s school was closed today — an employee at our local community center tested positive last night, and she had interacted with students — but it was clear the whole district was going to shut down soon enough. Miami-Dade is on spring break the week after next anyway

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