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The Commish

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52 minutes ago, zftcg said:

Uh oh. The day a lot of us in this thread have feared may be upon us:

‘If It’s Here, It’s Here’: America’s Retirees Confront the Virus in Florida

 

Beat me to it....I hope this doesn't go like I think it's going to.  Their only hope is to change their collective tune towards masks (which, to this point, has been REALLY anti-mask).

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First week that the pandemic really hit, I told my dad that we were going to have to cancel our plans to drive over to Sarasota to celebrate his birthday with him. He said, “But we can’t stop living.” I said, “You literally can, and that’s why we’re not coming.”

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I'm really struggling to understand this mandate for schools HAVING to be open.  The most often heard "logic" I hear around this topic is "because parents need to be able to work".  That's cool...I get it, but has anyone been paying attention to the job situation?  Here in Central Florida (not unique) we rely HEAVILY on tourism.  Orange County has been collecting approx 3-5% of their tourism dollars since this thing started and it's not really getting much better.  Great, everyone's at work, now what?  Large companies will likely be fine though they are taking a hit, but small/medium companies are going to get really beat up partially open.

Not sure if anyone is paying attention nationally, but our name is pretty much mud in terms of handling this thing.  There is zero confidence in our condition and ability to keep people safe.  People are staying home and rightfully so.  I just don't understand these decisions knowing we are fully entrenched in the "confidence" portion of the program and no one has any in us.  I mean, the Bahamas has shut off access to their country...Florida being a big part of that decision.  We seem to be floundering after being on a real strong path to success initially.

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51 minutes ago, The Commish said:

I'm really struggling to understand this mandate for schools HAVING to be open.  The most often heard "logic" I hear around this topic is "because parents need to be able to work".  That's cool...I get it, but has anyone been paying attention to the job situation?  Here in Central Florida (not unique) we rely HEAVILY on tourism.  Orange County has been collecting approx 3-5% of their tourism dollars since this thing started and it's not really getting much better.  Great, everyone's at work, now what?  Large companies will likely be fine though they are taking a hit, but small/medium companies are going to get really beat up partially open.

Not sure if anyone is paying attention nationally, but our name is pretty much mud in terms of handling this thing.  There is zero confidence in our condition and ability to keep people safe.  People are staying home and rightfully so.  I just don't understand these decisions knowing we are fully entrenched in the "confidence" portion of the program and no one has any in us.  I mean, the Bahamas has shut off access to their country...Florida being a big part of that decision.  We seem to be floundering after being on a real strong path to success initially.

The only reason schools need to be open and the nfl needs to be playing is because Trump wants you to forget all this in november.

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Governor Ron dropping the hammer on the school board and teachers. 

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6 hours ago, killface said:

The only reason schools need to be open and the nfl needs to be playing is because Trump wants you to forget all this in november.

Just close your eyes Real Tight and it will all "go away".

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7 hours ago, The Commish said:

I'm really struggling to understand this mandate for schools HAVING to be open.  The most often heard "logic" I hear around this topic is "because parents need to be able to work". 

It's a lot more than that.  The part that seems to be getting lost is people still have a choice.  Teachers can refuse to come in.  Parents can keep their kids home and attend remotely.  Mandating schools being open doesn't mean anyone actually has to go to them, but a lot of people want them to be, and do rely on them for a lot more than just a place to dump their kids. 

Why is a school any different than a Publix or a Wal-Mart?  Have precautions.  Follow them.  Adapt. 

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59 minutes ago, Grahamburn said:

It's a lot more than that.  The part that seems to be getting lost is people still have a choice.  Teachers can refuse to come in.  Parents can keep their kids home and attend remotely.  Mandating schools being open doesn't mean anyone actually has to go to them, but a lot of people want them to be, and do rely on them for a lot more than just a place to dump their kids. 

Why is a school any different than a Publix or a Wal-Mart?  Have precautions.  Follow them.  Adapt. 

If you can't understand how putting 30 7 year olds in a room that is 30 foot by 30 foot is different than a walmart you have never been in a class room

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6 minutes ago, killface said:

If you can't understand how putting 30 7 year olds in a room that is 30 foot by 30 foot is different than a walmart you have never been in a class room

If the normal class size is ~30 I’d expect we would see COVID class sizes of ~15 give or take a few. Space out the desks and have them wear masks. It really isn’t that hard. 

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Just now, Grahamburn said:

If the normal class size is ~30 I’d expect we would see COVID class sizes of ~15 give or take a few. Space out the desks and have them wear masks. It really isn’t that hard. 

again you expect 6 and 7 year old to wear masks and socially distance?  They can't even keep their fingers out of their bum

classes aren't big enought to put 6 feet between the desks.  The best you could maybe do is split the class into 3 and rotate the times they come to school

I just don't think you are thinking of the complexities of this

Don't forget about all the neural atypical kids (typically 3-4 per class) who would potentially be traumatized by having to wearing masks

 

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1 hour ago, Grahamburn said:

Why is a school any different than a Publix or a Wal-Mart?

This isn't a serious question, is it?

  • People rarely spend more than 2 hours per week inside a store.
  • Stores rarely have more than 200 people in them at a time, spread out over a very wide area.
  • Store aisles have less traffic than school hallways.
  • Shoppers rarely spend more than 5 minutes in any single location of a store.
  • Shoppers do not sit next to people.
  • Shoppers do not sit in rooms with 20-30 other people.
  • Shoppers rarely use a communal restroom.
  • Modern store HVAC systems circulate air better than old schools.
  • Sick people are more likely to go to school than go to a store.

You're seriously trying to compare a trip to the store to spending all day in school? That does not compute.

Schools are incubators compared to your average Wal-Mart.

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5 minutes ago, killface said:

again you expect 6 and 7 year old to wear masks and socially distance?  They can't even keep their fingers out of their bum

classes aren't big enought to put 6 feet between the desks.  The best you could maybe do is split the class into 3 and rotate the times they come to school

I just don't think you are thinking of the complexities of this

Don't forget about all the neural atypical kids (typically 3-4 per class) who would potentially be traumatized by having to wearing masks

 

Yes? Kids come in. They sit at their desk. The teacher teaches. Lunch. Kids back to their desk. Recess. Kids come back to class. Teach. Day over. 
 

It doesn’t have to be complex. Kids adapt a lot better than adults do in many situations. Keep it simple. 

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1 minute ago, Grahamburn said:

Yes? Kids come in. They sit at their desk. The teacher teaches. Lunch. Kids back to their desk. Recess. Kids come back to class. Teach. Day over. 
 

It doesn’t have to be complex. Kids adapt a lot better than adults do in many situations. Keep it simple. 

you have clearly never been in a  classroom.  Class is nothing like that...

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Daycares are open.
 

Wal-Mart, Lowe’s, and Publix. All open. People are Congregating in these places ALL DAY LONG! 
 

Why is the school any different? 

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1 minute ago, Grahamburn said:

Daycares are open.
 

Wal-Mart, Lowe’s, and Publix. All open. People are Congregating in these places ALL DAY LONG! 
 

Why is the school any different? 

Everyone has answered you above and it's clearly hugely different.  This seems like a strange argument or you aren't reading

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1 minute ago, killface said:

you have clearly never been in a  classroom.  Class is nothing like that...

Ok. 

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1 minute ago, killface said:

Everyone has answered you above and it's clearly hugely different.  This seems like a strange argument or you aren't reading

Take retail out then. How are daycares open without massive outbreaks? 

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Just now, Grahamburn said:

Take retail out then. How are daycares open without massive outbreaks? 

Because daycare has 6 kids under 4 years old.  Those kids can sit by themselves and play like they do mostly anyway.  

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4 minutes ago, Grahamburn said:

Daycares are open.
 

Wal-Mart, Lowe’s, and Publix. All open. People are Congregating in these places ALL DAY LONG! 
 

Why is the school any different? 

perhaps read and consider that you may be oversimplifying the situation

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Just now, killface said:

Because daycare has 6 kids under 4 years old.  Those kids can sit by themselves and play like they do mostly anyway.  

Church based daycares have hundreds of kids. Ample staff. All open. All in close proximity. Daily. Please explain why the schools need to be closed. 

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1 minute ago, joffer said:

perhaps read and consider that you may be oversimplifying the situation

I backed off retail. Bad example apparently. Why can the huge church daycares be open but schools can’t? 

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Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, Grahamburn said:

Church based daycares have hundreds of kids. Ample staff. All open. All in close proximity. Daily. Please explain why the schools need to be closed. 

I'm done...it has been explained over and over again.  It's not the same thing.  

In california where i live a daycare cannot have more than 12 kids with a ratio of 6:1

 

Edited by killface

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1 hour ago, Grahamburn said:

It's a lot more than that.  The part that seems to be getting lost is people still have a choice.  Teachers can refuse to come in.  Parents can keep their kids home and attend remotely.  Mandating schools being open doesn't mean anyone actually has to go to them, but a lot of people want them to be, and do rely on them for a lot more than just a place to dump their kids. 

Why is a school any different than a Publix or a Wal-Mart?  Have precautions.  Follow them.  Adapt. 

I can give you a laundry list of reasons why a school is different from a Publix or a Walmart, but that's not the point.  I don't understand the "reason" of "getting back to work" when many of them are people who are in the tourism industry that is virtually non existent.  Doesn't make sense.  The other reasons kids go to school (primarily food related) can be addressed without forcing these people to choose between a job on the verge of extinction and putting their kids in a potentially dangerous situation.  

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24 minutes ago, Grahamburn said:

If the normal class size is ~30 I’d expect we would see COVID class sizes of ~15 give or take a few. Space out the desks and have them wear masks. It really isn’t that hard. 

Not to mention for 8 hours straight. Apply some logic.

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30 minutes ago, Grahamburn said:

If the normal class size is ~30 I’d expect we would see COVID class sizes of ~15 give or take a few. Space out the desks and have them wear masks. It really isn’t that hard. 

If you take a typical school, and limit the classrooms down from 30 to 15 where are the additional classrooms going to come from to accommodate the other 15 kids? 

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10 minutes ago, Jobber said:

Not to mention for 8 hours straight. Apply some logic.

I thought I did. Guess the governor and I are on an island by ourselves. I’ll bow out. 

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3 minutes ago, Mile High said:

If you take a typical school, and limit the classrooms down from 30 to 15 where are the additional classrooms going to come from to accommodate the other 15 kids? 

I’m assuming the parents of half the student body have decided to learn remotely as most surveys suggested they would do. 

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16 minutes ago, killface said:

I'm done...it has been explained over and over again.  It's not the same thing.  

In california where i live a daycare cannot have more than 12 kids with a ratio of 6:1

 

My kids go to a daycare with hundreds of other kids separated by rooms and “teachers.” It very much is basically the exact same thing. 

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Grahamburn said:

Take retail out then. How are daycares open without massive outbreaks? 

Maybe have retail in daycare or vice versa. Everybody wins :lol:

Edited by Osaurus
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1 hour ago, Grahamburn said:

I thought I did. Guess the governor and I are on an island by ourselves. I’ll bow out. 

I don’t agree with everything you’ve posted in this thread, but I hate the way these debates always boil down to “Schools must reopen full time” vs. “We absolutely can’t open schools at all.” For one thing, I don’t agree with either position, and I suspect I’m not alone there. Both options have major potential downsides.

But more importantly, that’s not the debate we should be having. What we need to be discussing is what steps we need to start taking right now if we want to reopen schools next month. It’s not going to be easy (which is my main point of disagreement with your posts) and if Florida is unable to get its daily case count down below 10K it almost certainly won’t happen at all, at least not in any of the major population centers.

And that’s my main problem with the Trump (and to a slightly lesser extent DeSantis) position. You can’t reopen schools by fiat and simply hand wave away all the complications. I want to hear a lot more about how they’re setting safety benchmarks that schools have to meet in order to reopen and making sure they have the resources to meet them.

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35 minutes ago, zftcg said:

I don’t agree with everything you’ve posted in this thread, but I hate the way these debates always boil down to “Schools must reopen full time” vs. “We absolutely can’t open schools at all.” For one thing, I don’t agree with either position, and I suspect I’m not alone there. Both options have major potential downsides.

But more importantly, that’s not the debate we should be having. What we need to be discussing is what steps we need to start taking right now if we want to reopen schools next month. It’s not going to be easy (which is my main point of disagreement with your posts) and if Florida is unable to get its daily case count down below 10K it almost certainly won’t happen at all, at least not in any of the major population centers.

And that’s my main problem with the Trump (and to a slightly lesser extent DeSantis) position. You can’t reopen schools by fiat and simply hand wave away all the complications. I want to hear a lot more about how they’re setting safety benchmarks that schools have to meet in order to reopen and making sure they have the resources to meet them.

Great post. In places without runaway infections, a hybrid (A day, B day) model is what I’m pulling for.

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3 minutes ago, Jobber said:

Great post. In places without runaway infections, a hybrid (A day, B day) model is what I’m pulling for.

Yeah I think that may be realistic. The current plan for Miami — which almost certainly won’t happen unless things improve rapidly — would make a lot of sense in the kinds of places you’re talking about: if a school is below 75% capacity, it can bring students back full time. If it’s over that number, it has to use a hybrid model. But it’s still going to be hard to pull this off safely

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2 hours ago, Grahamburn said:

Not bad. He's showing some  flexibility about how schools open.

One caveat about preschools and daycare not closing: the state didn't close them, but many shut down on their own. Some re-opened and then closed again, such as the on-site daycare/pre-school where I work. Contact tracing from all students in some of those schools that stayed open would be useful to help make decisions.

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Posted (edited)

Lebron James is helping to raise money so people can pay off fines to be able to vote. 
 

https://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2020/07/24/lebron-james-joins-push-to-turn-out-ex-felon-vote-in-florida-1303417

 

This is the organization that’s been raising money - over $1.6M so far: 

https://wegotthevote.org/finesandfees/

 

Edited by Blue Dot Orange Dot
Adding link to We Got The Vote
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49 minutes ago, Blue Dot Orange Dot said:

Lebron James is helping to raise money so people can pay off fines to be able to vote. 
 

https://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2020/07/24/lebron-james-joins-push-to-turn-out-ex-felon-vote-in-florida-1303417

 

This is the organization that’s been raising money - over $1.6M so far: 

https://wegotthevote.org/finesandfees/

 

Seems like grassroots groups are starting to pop up all over.  We have two small ones here in my town that I just ran across.  Now the problem will be, "determining the amount of money people actually owe" as a stall tactic....some have been told "we need to figure out what you owe" and then been told it could take years.

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6 minutes ago, The Commish said:

Seems like grassroots groups are starting to pop up all over.  We have two small ones here in my town that I just ran across.  Now the problem will be, "determining the amount of money people actually owe" as a stall tactic....some have been told "we need to figure out what you owe" and then been told it could take years.

I agree, knowing how much people owe is a problem because the state can’t even figure that out. 

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51 minutes ago, Blue Dot Orange Dot said:

I agree, knowing how much people owe is a problem because the state can’t even figure that out. 

What's stopping the State from fabricating ridiculously high fees? What's stopping judges from imposing million dollar fines for all but white-collar felonies?

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1 hour ago, Sea Duck said:

Lebron's money would be better spent lobbying to change the law.

What could his money actually accomplish at this point? GOP legislators and DeSantis aren’t going to change their minds. Only way to fix it is by electing more Dems this year and defeating DeSantis in ‘22 ... and expanding the electorate, particularly to people who now have all the motivation in the world to vote these people out, seems like a good way to accomplish that. 

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One thing the GOP is short sighted in again (surprise surprise) is they may be successful in this ONE election interfering with these people’s voting rights. I guarantee all of these (million?) ex-felons will remember just who ####ed with them. Their close friends and families as well. 

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‘I’d rather be Trump than Biden.’ Why Florida should be close in 2020, despite polls

Whole lotta spin going on in this article, but I mostly agree with the conclusions. Biden could certainly win Florida, particularly if he maintains as big a lead as he has right now. But I don't really get the sense that he's unlocked the state. Specifically, based on everything I've read, Trump has done a much better job targeting the Latino vote. He won't win it, but he could certainly hold Biden's margins down while turning out his base of Cubans, rural voters and Villages retirees. That's what has driven GOP's historical success here, including in 2018 when Florida looked a lot more like the GOP base states where Trump super-charged turnout, rather than Blue Wave states where he got swamped in the suburbs.

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On 7/25/2020 at 9:26 AM, Blue Dot Orange Dot said:

Lebron James is helping to raise money so people can pay off fines to be able to vote. 
 

https://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2020/07/24/lebron-james-joins-push-to-turn-out-ex-felon-vote-in-florida-1303417

 

This is the organization that’s been raising money - over $1.6M so far: 

https://wegotthevote.org/finesandfees/

 

This is brilliant...

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39 minutes ago, zftcg said:

‘I’d rather be Trump than Biden.’ Why Florida should be close in 2020, despite polls

Whole lotta spin going on in this article, but I mostly agree with the conclusions. Biden could certainly win Florida, particularly if he maintains as big a lead as he has right now. But I don't really get the sense that he's unlocked the state. Specifically, based on everything I've read, Trump has done a much better job targeting the Latino vote. He won't win it, but he could certainly hold Biden's margins down while turning out his base of Cubans, rural voters and Villages retirees. That's what has driven GOP's historical success here, including in 2018 when Florida looked a lot more like the GOP base states where Trump super-charged turnout, rather than Blue Wave states where he got swamped in the suburbs.

Food for thought: in early August 2016, Hillary Clinton led in the polls in Florida by around 3.5 points. By election day, Trump had gained around 4 points and was leading in the polls, and he ended up winning Florida by 1.2 points. That's a total swing of around 4.7 points.

Biden's current lead in Florida polls is 6.7 points.

The point is: polls may not guarantee anything, but they give you an idea of A) how much ground a candidate is likely to make up in 100 days, and B) how many points a former underdog is likely to make up on election day.

So, I'm not saying that Trump can't erase a 6.7-point-deficit in 96 days.....but his own history is working against him here.

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4 hours ago, [scooter] said:

Food for thought: in early August 2016, Hillary Clinton led in the polls in Florida by around 3.5 points. By election day, Trump had gained around 4 points and was leading in the polls, and he ended up winning Florida by 1.2 points. That's a total swing of around 4.7 points.

Biden's current lead in Florida polls is 6.7 points.

The point is: polls may not guarantee anything, but they give you an idea of A) how much ground a candidate is likely to make up in 100 days, and B) how many points a former underdog is likely to make up on election day.

So, I'm not saying that Trump can't erase a 6.7-point-deficit in 96 days.....but his own history is working against him here.

Id really like to believe this but i just can't. Funny tidbit ...people have been trying to set up a pro trump display of support at a busy intersection here. Just as they get set up the skies open up and dump on them. every single day....

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On 7/25/2020 at 12:26 PM, Blue Dot Orange Dot said:

Lebron James is helping to raise money so people can pay off fines to be able to vote. 
 

https://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2020/07/24/lebron-james-joins-push-to-turn-out-ex-felon-vote-in-florida-1303417

 

This is the organization that’s been raising money - over $1.6M so far: 

https://wegotthevote.org/finesandfees/

 

I donated

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