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Ghost Rider

Super Bowl LIV Discussion Thread - 49ers vs Chiefs

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I originally picked San Fran.  In big games like this, defense usually has the the edge.  If San Fran were going against a pure pocket passer in the SB; I'd think they might dominate. Now I'm not so sure.  Mahomes is special and mobile QBs have exposed San Fran a bit.

KC essentially shut down Derrick Henry; if they do the same thing to San Fran, then Jimmy Dilfer has to make some plays.  He has done that throughout the season, but it's clear in the postseason Shanahan prefers him as a sparsely utilized game manager.

Edited by Dinkle Heimer

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The last time that Jimmy had to throw the ball was in a pretty important game. You might remember week 17? If not, here's a reminder 18/22 for 285 yards. 

Why should he have thrown more passes in a 27-10 win over MIN and a 27-0 start against GB? 

I'm looking forward to a good game. 27-24. SF over KC. 

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Yes, I mentioned that Jimmy has made some plays throughout the season.  Seattle's pass D was injury depleted and porous.  KC's is 6th in pass DVOA. The stage is also much bigger and I'm not sure Jimmy G has the mental fortitude to come clutch; if forced to do something. 

 

San Francisco clearly is a championship quality team at most positions.  They haven't had to rely on their QB to do much more in the postseason other than hand the ball off.  When they tried to put the nail in the coffin against the Vikings with some second half passing; it was not pretty and they smartly reverted to Jimmy G the game manager.

Edited by Dinkle Heimer

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This is such a  great matchup.   Defense wins championships and SF has the better defense.  KCs offense is great so SF wont shut them down.  Im calling it 31-28 SF!!!  

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1 hour ago, bicycle_seat_sniffer said:

titans were.slaughtering people on the ground.....until yesterday....do not under estimate the chiefs defense...they have improved greatly since early in the regular season and their coordinator has won a superbowl before

I'm not underestimating them. But their defense isn't "good enough" across the board to make sense of this "what if SF goes down" narrative. 

Since losing to the Titans in the regular season they played one team with a winning record to close out their final 6 games. The Niners played 4 playoff teams going 3-1 during that stretch. KC has given up an average of 28 PPG in their last 2 playoff games.

I think this game is going to be a very close, knock-down, drag-out fight. I have a ton of respect for KC and their fan-base. Always liked KC. Would have rooted for them had we lost. Not going to be the worst thing if you have lose to guys like Mahomes/Reid. I just think some of these "concerns" about SF aren't rooted in reality. Especially as it pertains to the idea that SF can't move the ball via the air if needed. The week 9 game against AZ was the first game that started a downward trend on defense from injures and they needed Jimmy G/the offense to do more of the "heavy lifting". He's averaged 276 passing yards and 2 TD's a game since then. No one is confusing him with a Mahomes level QB, but he has proven all year to get it done when needed. The first game they were really "down" (20-7) Jimmy responded with a 350 4 TD performance to win. 

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22 hours ago, gump said:

Andy Reid getting carried off on his players shoulders seems like destiny.

seems like a back injury waiting to happen. 

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20 hours ago, ericttspikes said:

Not sure if the 9ers can keep up with the Chiefs speed. No way they played any WR group this year as fast as KC's. Their D line can get pressure which will help, but if not they'll get burned. Sherman looked like he was running in concrete when Adams got behind him, and Adams runs something like a 4.6. Should be a great game.

I will be very surprised if we don't see at least one TD where Hill or Hardman just blows the top off the defense.  SF defense may be fast, but KC has TWO speedsters so they'll have to be fast in more than one place.  The biggest question will be if the KC O-line can give Mahomes enough time to find them deep.  I'll say that Bosa & Co. give him hell for the first quarter - Mahomes is still young, first SB, probably will have jitters, etc. but eventually he'll connect with Hill on a deep one. 

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From the KC side....last week was about stopping Henry....and the rest would probably take care of itself....and it did...

similar this week......stop the run

but this week adds another focus.....protect Mahomes...I would expect some designed roll outs because even the best o line in the league will struggle with the pressure SF can apply....and I think they will try to bring everything but the kitchen sink to try and get Mahomes off script.....if he is able to dodge pocket pressure and have free throwing lanes, they should be able to get some chunk plays.....Andy gets an extra week to prepare the protection and game plan against the pressure....I like his chances....

I don’t think Jimmy GQ scares them.....similar to Tannehill.....and KC can also pressure the QB.....Jimmy GQ gonna have to make some plays and limit mistakes...you really can’t afford to punt or turn it over against KC.....

Edited by Stinkin Ref

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I keep seeing on this thread (and hearing from people I talk to) this idea about how KC "stopped Henry" as though that has any bearing at all on this game.  Tenn bases it's play on using the rb as the focus, making Henry's unique gifts the center of it's running game and what the passing game builds of off.  Sf runs a very unique scheme with a lot of misdirection and zone blocking concepts that are made to result in space for whoever touches the ball.  So yes, KC was able to stop Henry, but if they focus on stopping Mosert then SF will just run it with deebo or screen it to Kittle.

 

Not to say I see this as a blowout.  If the KC defense can the play in front of them, not bite on the presnap movement, and the first man can tackle, they can stop SFs offense and force them to go vanilla.

 

Either way, close game and it wouldn't surprise me to see a ton of scoring or Malhomes do something amazing. 30-27 9ers.

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On 1/19/2020 at 10:38 PM, Super King said:

That's a tough task right there

provided theres a forklift nearby

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On 1/20/2020 at 7:23 PM, SF409ers said:

Well duh, that's how the offense is setup to operate.

Niners match-up well against KC. Elite pass defense and running game. The Chiefs have a middling defense that's bottom of the barrel in run defense. Going to see another huge day from Mostert. Mahomes won't have all day to run around waiting for plays to develop. He's going to get his though and Jimmy will probably need to air it out more than the last 2 games,  but if they can keep the run game rolling and put Mahomes on his ### several times they will have that 6th ring. Far more talented team overall and they have been heavily battle tested this season in big, close games. 

Your comment about the Chiefs run defense being "bottom of the barrel" may have been accurate about their regular season performance but it is emphatically not the case for the playoffs.

For the playoffs they started using big boy defensive fronts featuring Pennel (who is 330lbs and a total beast) and Kpassagnon and playing Ragland full-time. Sorenson also played close to the line of scrimmage as a LB/S hybrid. After a bit of early trouble they really shut down Henry, who had been running amok.

They actually remind me a little bit of the Colts Super Bowl team who had been terrible during the regular season stopping the run and really tightened it up for the playoffs.

I daresay Mostert will still produce but he is not going to have a "another huge day" like the one against the Packers.

If anything I see them forcing the Niners to throw it to beat them and Kittle having a huge day.

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The Chiefs didn’t exactly “stop” Henry. The guy had 62 yards and a TD in the first half. He was scripted out after that Mahommes TD at the end of the 1st half gave KC the lead. The challenge there is on the 9er defense.

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1 hour ago, SaintsInDome2006 said:

The Chiefs didn’t exactly “stop” Henry. The guy had 62 yards and a TD in the first half. He was scripted out after that Mahommes TD at the end of the 1st half gave KC the lead. The challenge there is on the 9er defense.

He was "scripted out" well after that. The Chiefs stoned Henry whenever they tried to run it in the 3rd quarter. I remember a couple of big stops that felt highly symbolic. It wasn't until the fourth quarter when they were in catch-up mode that they stopped featuring him.

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Notable too is the Chiefs have had slow starts lately. Sure, the KC offense can get hot and get on a roll, but overcoming an early deficit against the 49ers on a neutral field would be much more challenging than the ones against Houston and Tenn at home. Andy Reid teams are historically great off of a bye (2 weeks to prepare), and that cannot be overlooked either. 

Edited by Ghost Rider
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On ‎1‎/‎20‎/‎2020 at 5:06 PM, Dinkle Heimer said:

Yes, I mentioned that Jimmy has made some plays throughout the season.  Seattle's pass D was injury depleted and porous.  KC's is 6th in pass DVOA. The stage is also much bigger and I'm not sure Jimmy G has the mental fortitude to come clutch; if forced to do something. 

 

San Francisco clearly is a championship quality team at most positions.  They haven't had to rely on their QB to do much more in the postseason other than hand the ball off.  When they tried to put the nail in the coffin against the Vikings with some second half passing; it was not pretty and they smartly reverted to Jimmy G the game manager.

What do  you mean?  He has two Super Bowl rings.  He has to be clutch to have those.....haha

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8 hours ago, Ghost Rider said:

Notable too is the Chiefs have had slow starts lately. Sure, the KC offense can get hot and get on a roll, but overcoming an early deficit against the 49ers on a neutral field would be much more challenging than the ones against Houston and Tenn at home. Andy Reid teams are historically great off of a bye (2 weeks to prepare), and that cannot be overlooked either. 

last time Reids team had a bye, they fell behind 24-0....but yeah they won

 

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10 hours ago, Miro Z said:

He was "scripted out" well after that. The Chiefs stoned Henry whenever they tried to run it in the 3rd quarter. I remember a couple of big stops that felt highly symbolic. It wasn't until the fourth quarter when they were in catch-up mode that they stopped featuring him.

Exactly to his point though. Mahomes took Henry out of the game not the Chiefs defense. They would not have stopped running it after only 4 attempts in the 2nd half had they not gone down 28-17 then 35-17. They were down by 4 points until KC's offense took over midway through the 3rd and never looked back. As stated, going to be on the SF defense to keep that from happening.

Either way, maybe they have improved over the last 2 games. Same could be said of the Niners running game. They averaged 144 yards per game in the regular season. That's now 235 during the post-season. Small sample sizes though for both teams. Titans running game is of course much different than what the Niners present. Both teams they just played figured out early on they were going to keep running it. They weren't able to stop it even though they knew it was coming every play. Agree that Mostert probably isn't going to come within 29 yards of breaking the record for the most rushing yards in a playoff game. That's a pretty high bar. I'm sure KC is going to go all out on "forcing them to throw it." Not sure it's going to be as effective as some may think though. But that's why they play the game :) 

Edited by SF409ers

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Mike Florio.....same idiot that said he would quit covering football if Tyreek HIll was allowed to keep playing.....now says SF should go ahead and take some penalties if it means "sending Mahomes a message"....

https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nfl/news/mike-florio-take-risking-penalties-message-patrick-mahomes-is-dumb/mwv27wg24voq1rx1faew9ormt

 

 

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9 hours ago, Devin Knotts said:

We are having a series over on Youtube that started today. Started with can the 49ers stop the Chiefs passing attack

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vmRH5DKW-M0

Should have titled this Chiefs fan slobber fest on why it's impossible for the Niners to stop the Chiefs passing game. 

Synopsis: there is nothing the Niners defense can do to stop the great Mahomes. Analysis based mostly on 40 times. DB's don't run fast enough and the LB's can't cover Kelce because they haven't played someone like him before. 

Maybe take a look at Mahomes performance against an elite defense like NE or how he did against the Chargers both times. If there is a defense built to play Mahomes it's one like the Niners. The recency bias from these last two games RE KC is embarrassing. Dig deeper next time, Devin.

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Brian Westbrook on 95.7 the game right now. He’s actually a very good football analyst… I had no idea.

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49ers in a landslide.  We're seeing a change of the guard when it comes to NFL dominancy.  Do you think it was a coincidence that since 9/11, the dominant team in the NFL has been the Patriots?  Patriot, a word that became very important after 9/11, a symbol of pride in your country.  What better team than New England to prop up into the national spotlight.  Now, with the powers that be scheming to frame and remove the President , and overall general direction the country is headed in led by this changing of the guard in this once proud country, they are making their move.  What better team to prop up to represent this, than the antithesis of the Patriots, the 49ers.  They're on the opposite coast, in the liberal heartland, with the ex QB of the Patriots no less.  Trading in the veteran, general-like Belichick for the new, unproven draftee.  You couldn't make this script up if you tried.  49ers in a landslide.

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2 hours ago, butcher boy said:

49ers in a landslide.  We're seeing a change of the guard when it comes to NFL dominancy. 
 

I love the take…Other than the weird political slant. lol

That’s how I bet the game… Took the Niners plus one, and then went back and took the Niners ML.

i’m curious… Is this the same “butcher boy“ from 95.7 the game?

 

Edited by Hot Sauce Guy

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39 minutes ago, butcher boy said:

49ers in a landslide.  We're seeing a change of the guard when it comes to NFL dominancy.  Do you think it was a coincidence that since 9/11, the dominant team in the NFL has been the Patriots?  Patriot, a word that became very important after 9/11, a symbol of pride in your country.  What better team than New England to prop up into the national spotlight.  Now, with the powers that be scheming to frame and remove the President , and overall general direction the country is headed in led by this changing of the guard in this once proud country, they are making their move.  What better team to prop up to represent this, than the antithesis of the Patriots, the 49ers.  They're on the opposite coast, in the liberal heartland, with the ex QB of the Patriots no less.  Trading in the veteran, general-like Belichick for the new, unproven draftee.  You couldn't make this script up if you tried.  49ers in a landslide.

That settles it.  I'm moving to Canada.

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6 hours ago, SF409ers said:

Should have titled this Chiefs fan slobber fest on why it's impossible for the Niners to stop the Chiefs passing game. 

Synopsis: there is nothing the Niners defense can do to stop the great Mahomes. Analysis based mostly on 40 times. DB's don't run fast enough and the LB's can't cover Kelce because they haven't played someone like him before. 

Maybe take a look at Mahomes performance against an elite defense like NE or how he did against the Chargers both times. If there is a defense built to play Mahomes it's one like the Niners. The recency bias from these last two games RE KC is embarrassing. Dig deeper next time, Devin.

Man, a few of you 9er fans on this board are wound up tight. He stated it was the first of a series.  Maybe the episode on SFs run offense vs KC will be just as complimentary to SF.  

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Thursday downgrades aren’t awesome. He has another week to get things right, but while he’s likely to play it also seems likely Kelce won’t be 100% for the Super Bowl. 

Unless of course this is all gamesmanship by Reid. :shrug: 

Travis Kelce (knee) did not participate in practice Thursday.

Kelce was able to get in a limited practice yesterday but was downgraded today. His knee is worth monitoring over the next 10 days, although it would be a massive surprise if he wasn't ready to go for the Super Bowl. Expect Kelce's practice reps to be limited in an attempt to get his knee as close to 100% as possible.

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16 hours ago, butcher boy said:

  Do you think it was a coincidence that since 9/11, the dominant team in the NFL has been the Patriots?  Patriot, a word that became very important after 9/11, a symbol of pride in your country. 

And on the flip side the Jets have mostly stunk since 9/11, because of symbolism as well.

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11 hours ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

Thursday downgrades aren’t awesome. He has another week to get things right, but while he’s likely to play it also seems likely Kelce won’t be 100% for the Super Bowl. 

Unless of course this is all gamesmanship by Reid. :shrug: 

 

 

Kelce was out sick yesterday.

As were a couple of other guys the last few days.

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Quote

Travis Kelce (knee) resumed practicing Friday.

Kelce spent Thursday as a spectator, though his absence was likely more maintenance than anything. He'll be ready to go full throttle when the Chiefs oppose San Francisco in next week's Super Bowl. The 30-year-old exploded for three touchdowns in the Divisional Round but was limited to just three catches for 30 yards in last week's triumph over Tennessee.

SOURCE: Adam Teicher on Twitter

Jan 24, 2020, 12:57 PM ET

 

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On 1/23/2020 at 3:20 PM, butcher boy said:

You couldn't make this script up if you tried. 

Apparently you could.

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9 hours ago, ChiefD said:

Kelce was out sick yesterday.

As were a couple of other guys the last few days.

His knee was sick? 🤔 

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14 hours ago, Dr. Octopus said:

And on the flip side the Jets have mostly stunk since 9/11, because of symbolism as well.

You’d think the Bengals were ISIS the way that franchise has sputtered. 

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1 hour ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

His knee was sick? 🤔 

His knee is fine.

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Seems like most in here like KC to win.  This makes me want to bet on SF.

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I don't think the 49ers match up as nearly as well with the Chiefs, as they did against the Packers and Vikings. I think the Ravens were a better team than the 49ers and the Chiefs still beat them, even giving up 200+ yds rushing and 4 rushing TDs. That's realistically the absolute best the 49ers could hope for and the Chiefs still won without Hill and D.Williams because Patrick Mahomes. 

SF has a good defense, but they dominated some really bad teams this season. Remember the Patriots D looked amazing the first 8 games of the season against arguably the softest first 8 game schedule of all time. The 49ers played a tougher schedule but somehow Patrick Mahomes is going to Jordan his way to the win. 

Edited by TwinTurbo

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11 minutes ago, Leroy Hoard said:

Seems like most in here like KC to win.  This makes me want to bet on SF.

its pretty much an even game, 1 point spread, Mahomes is the wildcard, he is unstoppable.

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28 minutes ago, Leroy Hoard said:

Seems like most in here like KC to win.  This makes me want to bet on SF.

I felt the same way at first. The 49ers are a complete team with a good defense. They particularly shine on 3rd down. And their version of the cover 3 is the type of defense you would design to stop Mahomes on paper. But the Chiefs have the best QB/WR/TE combo in the league to counter with over routes even if 49ers morph into a cover 4 after the snap. If they rush extra guys, Mahomes will pick the zone apart. So they need to get pressure rushing 4 or less and they have the best 4 man rush in the NFL. But that's factoring in all the below average teams they played this season. They didn't play this team yet. 

I think for the 49ers to win, they will need to run much more man-to-man instead of cover 3. And I don't see those matchups working in their favor. 

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I wanted Baltimore vs San Fran, but I think this will be a very good SB to watch.

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