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Super Bowl LIV Discussion Thread - 49ers vs Chiefs

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51 minutes ago, TwinTurbo said:

I felt the same way at first. The 49ers are a complete team with a good defense. They particularly shine on 3rd down. And their version of the cover 3 is the type of defense you would design to stop Mahomes on paper. But the Chiefs have the best QB/WR/TE combo in the league to counter with over routes even if 49ers morph into a cover 4 after the snap. If they rush extra guys, Mahomes will pick the zone apart. So they need to get pressure rushing 4 or less and they have the best 4 man rush in the NFL. But that's factoring in all the below average teams they played this season. They didn't play this team yet. 

And KC hasn't played this team yet either. btw, the 2 playoff teams KC beat won a total of 4 less games this year than the 2 teams SF beat. 

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I called up Andy Reid told him he's getting too fat now he looks like a walrus with that mustache. I suggested he should diet. He asks me, "what color?"

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8 hours ago, TwinTurbo said:

The 49ers played a tougher schedule but somehow Patrick Mahomes is going to Jordan his way to the win. 

How many times have we heard this going into the SB, only to come away and realize "oh yea... defense STILL wins championships"? How many all time great offenses need to lay a dud in the SB before we finally stop saying "this time it's different/this cat's a different beast"? How many MVP QBs need to lose SBs before we realize "oh wait it's been 20 years since an MVP won the SB"? How many times do ppl need to compliment the patriots for having "a complete team", before they realize that's the key to building sustained success?

MVP QBs are always the public's choice for a reason. They're more often than not, losers.

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1 hour ago, chinawildman said:

How many times have we heard this going into the SB, only to come away and realize "oh yea... defense STILL wins championships"? How many all time great offenses need to lay a dud in the SB before we finally stop saying "this time it's different/this cat's a different beast"? How many MVP QBs need to lose SBs before we realize "oh wait it's been 20 years since an MVP won the SB"? How many times do ppl need to compliment the patriots for having "a complete team", before they realize that's the key to building sustained success?

MVP QBs are always the public's choice for a reason. They're more often than not, losers.

Yeah well, Lamar Jackson is the MVP not Mahomes. And the Chiefs have a lot more than just him. 

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4 hours ago, cloppbeast said:

Yeah well, Lamar Jackson is the MVP not Mahomes. And the Chiefs have a lot more than just him. 

My point was that the popular notion that the star QB on the "unstoppable" offense will overcome all in the SB is a fairy tale that's told every year yet statistics don't support this argument at all:

1) The top-ranked defense has REACHED the Super Bowl 11 times and is 8-3 in the Super Bowl. The top-ranked offense has REACHED the Super Bowl 14 times and is 8-6 in the Super Bowl.

2) The team allowing the fewest points during the season has REACHED the Super Bowl 18 times and is 13-5 in the Super Bowl. The team scoring the most points during the season has REACHED the Super Bowl 21 times and is 10-11 in the Super Bowl.

May be all moot anyway... if we're talking strictly from a pts scored/allowed perspective. SF actually has the BETTER offense and WORSE defense.

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10 hours ago, chinawildman said:

How many times have we heard this going into the SB, only to come away and realize "oh yea... defense STILL wins championships"? How many all time great offenses need to lay a dud in the SB before we finally stop saying "this time it's different/this cat's a different beast"? How many MVP QBs need to lose SBs before we realize "oh wait it's been 20 years since an MVP won the SB"? How many times do ppl need to compliment the patriots for having "a complete team", before they realize that's the key to building sustained success?

MVP QBs are always the public's choice for a reason. They're more often than not, losers.

Yes sometimes it works out that way. I remember watching live while Peyton Manning got owned by the Seattle D in Super Bowl XLVIII. This 49ers team runs pretty much the same defense. They have Richard Sherman too, although a 6 years older version. 

I still think Mahomes is going to Jordan them. They aren't the '85 Bears or the 2000 Ravens. They aren't even the 2013 Seahawks. 

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6 hours ago, chinawildman said:

May be all moot anyway... if we're talking strictly from a pts scored/allowed perspective. SF actually has the BETTER offense and WORSE defense.

Well it's a no brainer then.

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I've been thinking about this game A LOT and I firmly believe the team that scores the most points will win. 

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4 hours ago, shadyridr said:

I've been thinking about this game A LOT and I firmly believe the team that scores the most points will win. 

Respect you as a poster, but have to disagree with you on this one, shady.

It’ll be the team that gives up the fewest points that wins this one.

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28 minutes ago, Arodin said:

Respect you as a poster, but have to disagree with you on this one, shady.

It’ll be the team that gives up the fewest points that wins this one.

Somehow I think you both could be right.

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18 hours ago, chinawildman said:

My point was that the popular notion that the star QB on the "unstoppable" offense will overcome all in the SB is a fairy tale that's told every year yet statistics don't support this argument at all:

1) The top-ranked defense has REACHED the Super Bowl 11 times and is 8-3 in the Super Bowl. The top-ranked offense has REACHED the Super Bowl 14 times and is 8-6 in the Super Bowl.

2) The team allowing the fewest points during the season has REACHED the Super Bowl 18 times and is 13-5 in the Super Bowl. The team scoring the most points during the season has REACHED the Super Bowl 21 times and is 10-11 in the Super Bowl.

May be all moot anyway... if we're talking strictly from a pts scored/allowed perspective. SF actually has the BETTER offense and WORSE defense.

What has happened in past SB means  absolutely nothing 

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Y'all are overthinking this too much:

in 13 of last 15 SB matchups, the team wearing road colors has won the game.

SF is wearing their road white unis with gold pants.

/thread

 

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4 hours ago, Tanner9919 said:

Y'all are overthinking this too much:

in 13 of last 15 SB matchups, the team wearing road colors has won the game.

SF is wearing their road white unis with gold pants.

/thread

 

Finally, someone with real stats checks in.

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5 hours ago, Tanner9919 said:

Y'all are overthinking this too much:

in 13 of last 15 SB matchups, the team wearing road colors has won the game.

SF is wearing their road white unis with gold pants.

/thread

Gotta love that uni combination. Never did like the Chiefs unis.

Chiefs still win this one, 31-24.

Should be a great game. 

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18 hours ago, shadyridr said:

I've been thinking about this game A LOT and I firmly believe the team that scores the most points will win. 

 

13 hours ago, Arodin said:

Respect you as a poster, but have to disagree with you on this one, shady.

It’ll be the team that gives up the fewest points that wins this one.

Ya'll may be on to something here

In the SB era the team scoring the most points have won 53 of the 53 Superbowls played

Of all the SBs played in Miami the team that gave up the least points has never lost a SB

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I have been following football since 1989 and that year, the Chiefs went 8-7-1 behind the incredible running of Christian Okoye, the Nigerian nightmare, and new head coach Marty Schottenheimer. They very narrowly failed to make the playoffs and I think would have been a handful for any team in the post-season had they got in.

Since then, they have been a sentimental favorite team for me and I have watched time after time the horrors of their regular playoff exits.

A few come to mind (and thanks to Pro Football Reference for jogging my mind - these are only the most egregious horrors, although there are plenty of others):

1990: KC at last makes the playoffs. Driving against Dan Marino's Fins down in Miami and needing only a FG to win it, a crucial penalty pushes them out of FG range and they lose.

1993: KC makes the Championship Game with Montana after a Cinderella run but collapses against Buffalo

1995: KC somehow finishes 13-3 with Steve Bono but still manages to lose to the 9-7 Colts

1997: Gannon and Grbac lead the Chiefs to another 13-3 record but they lose to the eventual SB champ Broncos as they err in starting Grbac

2003: KC again finishes 13-3 at the height of the Trent Green/Priest Holmes/Tony Gonzalez era and is SB favorite but manages to lose again to the Colts

2013: KC manages to lost 45-44 to the Colts, again, in an epic collapse to Andrew Luck

2017: KC takes a big early lead against the Titans and then falls to Mariota's comeback

By my calculation, the Chiefs were 5-18 in the playoffs since winning the Super Bowl 50 years ago prior to this season, which must be among the worst all-time playoff records.

What is shocking, even after all this time, is how often they followed up a superb regular season with a dismal playoff loss.

All of which sets the stage, I fear, for another gut-wrenching stomach punch of a collapse.

I'm thinking maybe Mahomes throws an INT as the Chiefs drive for the winning TD, or perhaps Kelce or Hill fumble it. Maybe Mathieu drops what would have been the game-winning INT, or maybe a penalty on Suggs negates his game-winning strip sack.

But you get the picture. I fear this one is written in the stars.

 

 

 

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8 minutes ago, Miro Z said:

I have been following football since 1989 and that year, the Chiefs went 8-7-1 behind the incredible running of Christian Okoye, the Nigerian nightmare, and new head coach Marty Schottenheimer. They very narrowly failed to make the playoffs and I think would have been a handful for any team in the post-season had they got in.

Since then, they have been a sentimental favorite team for me and I have watched time after time the horrors of their regular playoff exits.

A few come to mind (and thanks to Pro Football Reference for jogging my mind - these are only the most egregious horrors, although there are plenty of others):

1990: KC at last makes the playoffs. Driving against Dan Marino's Fins down in Miami and needing only a FG to win it, a crucial penalty pushes them out of FG range and they lose.

1993: KC makes the Championship Game with Montana after a Cinderella run but collapses against Buffalo

1995: KC somehow finishes 13-3 with Steve Bono but still manages to lose to the 9-7 Colts

1997: Gannon and Grbac lead the Chiefs to another 13-3 record but they lose to the eventual SB champ Broncos as they err in starting Grbac

2003: KC again finishes 13-3 at the height of the Trent Green/Priest Holmes/Tony Gonzalez era and is SB favorite but manages to lose again to the Colts

2013: KC manages to lost 45-44 to the Colts, again, in an epic collapse to Andrew Luck

2017: KC takes a big early lead against the Titans and then falls to Mariota's comeback

By my calculation, the Chiefs were 5-18 in the playoffs since winning the Super Bowl 50 years ago prior to this season, which must be among the worst all-time playoff records.

What is shocking, even after all this time, is how often they followed up a superb regular season with a dismal playoff loss.

All of which sets the stage, I fear, for another gut-wrenching stomach punch of a collapse.

I'm thinking maybe Mahomes throws an INT as the Chiefs drive for the winning TD, or perhaps Kelce or Hill fumble it. Maybe Mathieu drops what would have been the game-winning INT, or maybe a penalty on Suggs negates his game-winning strip sack.

But you get the picture. I fear this one is written in the stars.

 

 

 

Welcome to being a Chiefs fan.  :lol:

There are a lot of us that have ulcers named after the Chiefs. We feel your pain.

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1 hour ago, Miro Z said:

 

All of which sets the stage, I fear, for another gut-wrenching stomach punch of a collapse.

 

meh....Chiefs basically flew under the radar cause everybody was up on Jackson's and the Ravens nuts all year.....Chiefs weren't even supposed to be here, remember....

Edited by Stinkin Ref

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2 hours ago, Stinkin Ref said:

meh....Chiefs basically flew under the radar cause everybody was up on Jackson's and the Ravens nuts all year.....Chiefs weren't even supposed to be here, remember....

This Chiefs team hasn't really been that dominant though. Before coming back to win both of their playoff games they didn't have many quality wins during the second half of the season. They beat the shell of the New England Patriots by a TD and the Vikings by a FG and then a lot of lesser teams. Losing to the Packers and Titans during that stretch.

Not that it means much in this Super Bowl matchup, just there was good reason for everyone being on Jackson's and the Ravens "nuts".

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Niners call the toss, right? Anyone (homers) know if they have any tendencies there, like Slater did for the Pats? If I can find out if they typically call heads or tails, I can potentially win a nice chunk of an office pool. 

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I keep hearing that NFL insiders like the Chiefs to win, but all the talking heads (the ones I'm hearing anyway) are picking the 9ers.

 

I heard one former player say that Shanahans play calling is what will put the 9ers over the top....he's getting a lot of praise, and rightfully so.......is there more pressure on him or the walrus?  The guys who's had lots of chances and mostly failed.....or is this when Walrus gets over?

 

 

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I'd like to see Andy Reid win a superbowl.  I think this may be the one, although the 49ers running game and pass rush beg to differ.  

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22 hours ago, farfromforgotten said:

This Chiefs team hasn't really been that dominant though. Before coming back to win both of their playoff games they didn't have many quality wins during the second half of the season. They beat the shell of the New England Patriots by a TD and the Vikings by a FG and then a lot of lesser teams. Losing to the Packers and Titans during that stretch.

Not that it means much in this Super Bowl matchup, just there was good reason for everyone being on Jackson's and the Ravens "nuts".

True, the Ravens had that dominant stretch where they looked unstoppable, while the Chiefs, picked by many before the season to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl, didn’t look quite as dominant offensively as they did the prior year, but their defense quietly got better as the season progressed and they came into the playoffs as a sleeping giant of sorts. 

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Two sets of data of the  Super Bowl teams that  dovetail together nicely.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Graham Barfield @GrahamBarfield

Which teams used pre-snap motion/shifts most often in 2019? [via PFF]

  1.  SF (79%)
  2.  BAL (71%)
  3.  NE (64%) T
  4.  KC (61%)  T4. TEN (61%)
  5.  DAL (60%)
  6.  CAR (58%)
  7.  DEN (55%) T7 LAC (55%)
  8.  PIT (50%) ...

T28. MIA (35%) T28. ARI (35%) 30. NYJ (32%) 31. BUF (31%) 32. JAX (25%)

3:00 PM · Jan 24, 2020

-------------------------------------

Mina Kimes @minakimes

This is a big part of why both teams' use of motion is so deadly. When you're facing that much speed, hesitate for a split second and *poof*.....

>>>>>> 📊 >>>>>  LINK to graph showing Fastest Offenses by top avg speed of ball carriers

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This 49er defense is gonna be the best defense Mahomes has faced in his career. Just sayin.

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9 hours ago, Wingnut said:

This 49er defense is gonna be the best defense Mahomes has faced in his career. Just sayin.

True.   It’s not going to matter though.    KC will dominate after halftime.    

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10 hours ago, Ghost Rider said:

True, the Ravens had that dominant stretch where they looked unstoppable, while the Chiefs, picked by many before the season to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl, didn’t look quite as dominant offensively as they did the prior year, but their defense quietly got better as the season progressed and they came into the playoffs as a sleeping giant of sorts. 

I think a lot of that had to do w/ mainly playing bad divisional opponents in the 2nd half of the season. Raiders, broncos, chargers are ranked 24th, 28th, and 21st on offense, respectively. In fact the majority of their schedule has been against teams in the bottom 3rd of the NFL on offense.

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52 minutes ago, DocHolliday said:

True.   It’s not going to matter though.    KC will dominate after halftime.    

We'll see.

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On 1/27/2020 at 1:48 PM, Jayrok said:

I'd like to see Andy Reid win a superbowl.  I think this may be the one, although the 49ers running game and pass rush beg to differ.  

I like the 49ers, but I too would like to see Andy win a ring as a HC. I hope it is a good game more than anything. 

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On 1/25/2020 at 12:28 PM, TwinTurbo said:

I felt the same way at first. The 49ers are a complete team with a good defense. They particularly shine on 3rd down. And their version of the cover 3 is the type of defense you would design to stop Mahomes on paper. But the Chiefs have the best QB/WR/TE combo in the league to counter with over routes even if 49ers morph into a cover 4 after the snap. If they rush extra guys, Mahomes will pick the zone apart. So they need to get pressure rushing 4 or less and they have the best 4 man rush in the NFL. But that's factoring in all the below average teams they played this season. They didn't play this team yet. 

I think for the 49ers to win, they will need to run much more man-to-man instead of cover 3. And I don't see those matchups working in their favor. 

Quite literally untrue. Of the 18 games they've played this season, 13 have come against teams ranked 16th or better on offense. 6 games have come against teams ranked in the top 10 on offense. 

Edited by chinawildman
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Last post in here before the game...

Everything I've read or heard about the game reeks of recency bias, especially statistics claiming how the Chiefs were dominant down the stretch and the niners D is overrated. In the final 6 weeks of the regular season, 5 of SF's opponents had winning records (4 were playoff teams), whereas KC played only one winning team in the paper tiger Pats in that same timeframe. 

The Texans and Titans both have the 29th and 24th ranked pass defenses respectively. SF's #1 pass D gave up almost 40% less yds per game through the air than HOU, yet because Mahomes lit up those 2 teams people seem to be expecting just business as usual and more of the same... really?

The interpretation of Shanahan running a "crippled" offense because Garoppolo hasn't thrown the ball much also makes no sense to me. If anything, it's like the kung fu master who fights w/ one hand behind his back basically saying "I'm so badass, I can beat you w/ one hand".

Ultimately I think it will come down to which team's linebackers can cover the other team's receivers (RBs, FBs, TEs included) in pass defense. While the chiefs are fast, the niners LBs are probably the fastest and best crew of cover LBs in the league. But ppl overlook that all the niners RBs are sub 4.4 guys, Kittle's a 4.5 guy, and samuel and sanders are no slouches. I'm expecting the KC LBs to get exposed on edge runs and PA and SF will feast on this ALL DAY. And if KC takes them off the field to play small ball, then SF will just ram it down their throats.

KC scores first, they trade blows for the first half, SF pulls away in the 3rd and KC tries to rally in the 4th only to come up short. 31-24, niners win their 6th. 

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On 1/28/2020 at 8:47 AM, Wingnut said:

This 49er defense is gonna be the best defense Mahomes has faced in his career. Just sayin.

Feels like people are hyping this niner d way too much as of late. Their dline is formidable but beyond that I see a lot of opps for kc. I assume Reid will have an answer for the rush with quick passes, etc.

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Both played Baltimore, who a case can be made for of being in the top 2. Otherwise, each of these teams is playing the best opponent they’ve faced yet. Neither team has many weak spots, but both coaches are smart enough to try to exploit those. KC run d is vulnerable. SF secondary has some potential matchup problems. Should be a very fascinating game. If the Chiefs get off to a hot start unlike their first 2 games, they could cruise. If SF takes the early lead, each team’s strengths will have a chance to shine. 

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8 minutes ago, Buffaloes said:

Feels like people are hyping this niner d way too much as of late. Their dline is formidable but beyond that I see a lot of opps for kc. I assume Reid will have an answer for the rush with quick passes, etc.

We'll see.

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9 minutes ago, Wingnut said:

We'll see.

Yep. Im pulling for the niners, but Reid's record off a bye and mahomes being the best player in the nfl lead me to believe that kc's o will be more than ready for that defense.

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On 1/26/2020 at 4:10 AM, TwinTurbo said:

Yes sometimes it works out that way. I remember watching live while Peyton Manning got owned by the Seattle D in Super Bowl XLVIII. This 49ers team runs pretty much the same defense. They have Richard Sherman too, although a 6 years older version. 

I still think Mahomes is going to Jordan them. They aren't the '85 Bears or the 2000 Ravens. They aren't even the 2013 Seahawks. 

It's worth noting that mobile QBs can somewhat flip the script on defense dominanting big ganes.  You refer to the 2013 Sehawks.  Colin Kaepernick gave that 2013 D a lot more problems in the NFC championship gane than Manning did in the SB. It'll be interesting to see if Mahomes can neutralize that pass rush a bit.  I think something like 1 to 2 sacks vs 4 or 5 can make a huge difference in this game. Guys like Mahomes can still get chunk plays off of QB pressures.

 

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Headed to the party shortly. I was just offered a ride, so I’m now planning on being very hungover tomorrow. My niece made Raspberry Jell-O shots, so like a college dorm girl, imma go pound me a couple of those to get a little pre-fade going.

may all of your wings be spicy, your beers cold & your BBQs hot today. May you win all of your bets, so long as you didn’t bet against my team. 

go Niners & maybe I’ll check back in later. :pickle: 

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