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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (11 Viewers)

Maybe I should have worn a mask while traveling after all. Developed a nasty hacking cough over night. In addition to traveling, including two short layovers between Austin and West Palm in Harts-field-Jackson (one flight in an International Terminal,) I also spent two days in hospital waiting areas in Boca. So pretty much nice knowing you boys, I’m presently deleting my browsing history while making a last ditch effort to save myself with a Trader Joe’s detox tea. Will it be enough though?
It's not N-Cov 2019. The incubation period (symptom free at that) is two weeks. That said, get well soon. Did you know that the normal flu kills far more people every year ;)  

 
Let's talk statistics.  We are now well into this thing and have >300 cases with 1 fatality outside china.  

You have 10000 cases in China with 300 odd fatalities.

Why the mismatch?  Options I see:

  1.  China is severely under-reporting the numbers infected and the fatality rate is actually in the 0.1% range.
  2. China facilities are completely overwhelmed and the fatality rate is spiraling due to the quality of care
  3. It takes far longer to survive than the two weeks previously reported.
  4. ???
300/10000= 0.03

1/300= 0.03333

What mismatch?

ETA: Is this MoPmathTM?

 
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How much says China is talking specifically about this board, and specifically about a poster whose username rhymes with “sister glam.”

 
Mayo Clinic doctor: Coronavirus is ‘basically at a pandemic now’ and should be treated as such.

Dr. Gregory Poland, director of the Mayo Clinic’s Vaccine Research Group, said that the fast-spreading coronavirus is nearing pandemic status.

...

The next few weeks will be crucial in how the coronavirus affects the U.S., said former Food and Drug Administration Commissioner Scott Gottlieb.

“If we don’t start to see outbreaks in the next two or three weeks, we might have dodged a bullet,” said Gottlieb. He’s also physician, health advocate and Pfizer board member.

However, Gottlieb added on “Squawk Box,” “I think we’re going to start seeing secondary spread in the United States in the next two or three weeks, and then it’s going to be a difficult month.”

 
China threatens 7 years in prison for sharing info on Coronavirus online. :unsure:  

It emerged that eight medics raised the alarm on the coronavirus in December on a medical school’s alumni group on WeChat, a popular social network in China.

The whistleblowers from Wuhan have since been detained.

Earlier this week, a man called Fang Bin was tracked down and arrested after filming a covert video showing the true scale of the coronavirus as body bags pile up inside a Wuhan hospital.

 
This looks like the person who was in charge of naming this just smashed their keyboard and said, "Run with it." 
"Comrades Remdesivir, Oseltamivir, Lopinavir, and Ritonavir, the polonium vial is in the lead lined case.  Your mark is currently in London.  Report when completed."

 
China CDC Situation Report on Feb-03

Suspected cases: +5072 new  ==>  23214 total

Confirmed cases: +3235 new  ==>  20438 total

Severe: +492 new  ==>  2788 total

Dead: +64 new  ==>  425 total

Recovered: +157 new  ==>  632 total


You keep quoting those numbers, but from what little we do know all of those numbers are made up. I bet I could make up numbers right now and I would be willing to bet thousands of dollars they would be more accurate than the official numbers.

 
No problem.  I can stop if it bothers you.  China is setting up a sports center and 2 convention centers as hospitals in Wuhan.  This tells you they know things are not under control.
The things that bother me are few and far between, which is a problem with written text.

I live in a community that is 40% asian and have close friends/coworkers with family members in mainland china. I have been following this significantly more than the average US citizen. They are worried sick about this and based on what they have heard first hand the chinese numbers are not trusted by anyone. My concern is only with people seeing those numbers and thinking that they are accurate.

 
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No problem.  I can stop if it bothers you.  China is setting up a sports center and 2 convention centers as hospitals in Wuhan.  This tells you they know things are not under control.


You posted this after I had typed out my previous response. The problem is i think your numbers make things look too good.

 
“China has accepted the United States’ offer to incorporate a group of experts into a World Health Organization mission to China to learn more about and combat the virus,” White House spokesman Judd Deere said.

Link - includes comments from China on US “interference”.
I say this as a slightly right-leaning, all-of-politics-hating non-red-non-blue '16 voting dude:

Could there be MORE of a Trump White House spokesman name?   :lmao:

 
“China has accepted the United States’ offer to incorporate a group of experts into a World Health Organization mission to China to learn more about and combat the virus,” White House spokesman Judd Deere said.

Link - includes comments from China on US “interference”.
China rocketing up the draft boards of Backwards Hellhole mock.  Prayers for the ill and their families who are battling not just the disease but their own damn government.

 
MTskibum said:
The things that bother me are few and far between, which is a problem with written text.

I live in a community that is 40% asian and have close friends/coworkers with family members in mainland china. I have been following this significantly more than the average US citizen. They are worried sick about this and based on what they have heard first hand the chinese numbers are not trusted by anyone. My concern is only with people seeing those numbers and thinking that they are accurate.
This.  I work in the jewelry/watch industry and have vendors and dealers that I work with that are from China and Hong Kong.  Many of them tell me that the government has shut down many of the ways they can communicate with each other within China—the Chinese government is controlling much of the news—so even people that are living in China that aren’t sick are in the dark about how bad the scope of the disease is. I  said it before many times in this thread and got labeled as being a fear monger—but we will most likely never know how bad the death toll is there.  The turmoil and the economic collateral damage that would result from accurate reporting is something that neither governments want to happen.  This is why I’ve said repeatedly—if somebody wants to accurately gauge the severity of the situation—they are far better off analyzing the actions of each country than they are trusting numbers that are obviously and criminally low.  

 
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You're being smart.

Certain folks dismiss any level of preparedness like you're some Crazy militia extremist sticking your bunker for the zombie apocalypse.

However, the reality is that the odds are pretty good that we all have pretty decent odds of looking at some sort of pandemic or natural-disaster induced disruption of services in our lifetime. 

IMO anyone who doesn't stock at LEAST 2 weeks of food (~20-30K cal per person), and water (7-10gal per person) is asking for trouble.
How do you figure? I’ve been alive half a century, and never experienced anything requiring 2+ weeks of survival sundries/gear. How many pandemics and natural disasters have you lived through?

 
Is the Wall Street Journal a good enough source?

Johnson and Johnson already shipping.

Aluvia has already been used as experimental treatment.

Lots of profit to be made.  Exploitation race is on!
You’re right about profit potential, but there’s nothing suggesting those drugs are anything but experimental.

Given our track record with antivirals, I wouldn’t hold your breath on a cure being developed rapidly. If it were readily done, why no cure for SARS or MERS?

 
Hypothetically if I had to make an urgent work trip to Singapore in the coming weeks, bad idea?  Mrs. O said absolutely not. I keep explaining it’s not China, it’s not even all that close to China, there are some countries between the two, and it’s an island.  I suppose the issue is lots of people probably travel to Singapore from China for the lunar new year.  But then again, is this thing killing a guy like Otis in his 40s who is healthy as a horse?  I doubt it.  I bet just like the regular flu deaths it is the elderly and those with weakened immune systems or other issues already.

Would you go to Singapore now?
No I wouldn’t go. And FTR, obese people have increased risk of flu related complications.

 
Penguin said:
Latest update

There are currently 20,626 confirmed cases worldwide, including 426 fatalities.
Another 4574 and we get to the amount of people who are killed by Hippos in Africa in an average year.

obviously this needs to be watched but it’s been overblown.

 
Hypothetically if I had to make an urgent work trip to Singapore in the coming weeks, bad idea?  Mrs. O said absolutely not. I keep explaining it’s not China, it’s not even all that close to China, there are some countries between the two, and it’s an island.  I suppose the issue is lots of people probably travel to Singapore from China for the lunar new year.  But then again, is this thing killing a guy like Otis in his 40s who is healthy as a horse?  I doubt it.  I bet just like the regular flu deaths it is the elderly and those with weakened immune systems or other issues already.

Would you go to Singapore now?
Just got back yesterday from Singapore after a four-day business trip. You do see many people there wearing masks, but I didn't find it to be all-consuming among the locals. In speaking to some locals, I would say there is some trepidation in terms of people staying home - the bars and restaurants were a bit quiet during the normally vibrant Lunar New Year.

Health-wise, it's a world class city that is as pristine and clean as anywhere, including its amazing airport. But of course, there are no guarantees that it's not around, and things are obviously evolving every day.

All that said, if you'd be flying Singapore Airlines and saw the flight attendants, you might throw caution into the wind. 💗

Feel free to PM me if you have any other questions.

 
Wait a minute, hippos kill 5,000 people a year??

 
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[icon] said:
:lol:  

The federal government advises every family have food/water supplies for 72 hours of shut in. I've stretched it 6 weeks to be safe. It's a small corner of my guest room closet about the size of a micro fridge. If you think that makes me a "Full on apocalyptic prepper" then you don't get out much :lmao:  

Hypothetically a situation like what China is dealing with surfaces here and you've got to lock down at your home for ~3 weeks. What's your plan? Run to the grocery store and brave worse-than-black-friday crowds grab some food? You already prepared for that? Or just don't think it could happen? Not being a smartass, sincere question. 
 
We have at least a couple months of food in our house, none of it is prepper stuff, just a stocked pantry and three freezers.  I have a couple cases of water that would last 72 hours but not much beyond but in the case of a quarantine it is doubtful the government would be shutting off our water. 

The best argument I have heard for prepping is buying all canned and dry goods in bulk and to restock it as you use them throughout the year.  Assuming prices rise every year if you do this you are consuming these goods at last year's prices every year.   It makes sense but then I am too lazy to actually do it.

 
Wait a minute, hippos kill 5,000 people a year??
In an average year.  They are nasty.

its 5k out of 1.3B, so it’s not big % wise which is kind of the point I was making here.  400 on a billion is worth watching but it’s not time to shut down entire countries.

 
 400 on a billion is worth watching but it’s not time to shut down entire countries.
This outbreak is in the very early stages and the only chance of containing it is to shut down countries early. Unfortunately it's looking like we still may have been too late. Next 2 weeks will be huge. 

 
In an average year.  They are nasty.

its 5k out of 1.3B, so it’s not big % wise which is kind of the point I was making here.  400 on a billion is worth watching but it’s not time to shut down entire countries.
I'm no expert, but viruses kill much differently than hippos.  You can't wait until 2% of the population is dead to react.

 
there's a woman here in my office who's husband was in China visiting family for New Years - Shanghai area, I believe.  Her husband flew back last Thursday.  She has self-quarantined herself and her husband for the next 2 weeks - she is dialing in for all meetings and all that, working remotely.

 

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