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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread

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1 hour ago, eoMMan said:

I thought preppers were more worried about an EPMD pulse blast? Now they're jumping on the virus bandwagon?

Pick a team.

You gots to chill.

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2 hours ago, Mr. Ham said:

Just spent the past couple of days with my dad in ICU after emergency surgery, so particularly sensitive to how this might play with the older set. A little less funny since it hits close to home. Have elderly grandparents (90s) whom aren’t going to live forever, but I wouldn’t want to go out on something like this, and they have an especially hard time dealing with day-to-day living without more challenges. 

I don’t mean to derail the thread but my thoughts and prayers to you, dad and the family.   Hopefully the surgery went as well as possible.  

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36 minutes ago, jvdesigns2002 said:

I don’t mean to derail the thread but my thoughts and prayers to you, dad and the family.   Hopefully the surgery went as well as possible.  

Thank you! He’s recovering well. Had the biggest aortic aneurism they measured in a couple of years in Palm County Florida. Lucky it didn’t burst. It had been stented in 2013, but had a leak. Pretty major surgery. Had to open him up, graft a repair on the artery, and cut out the aneurism. 4 hours under the knife, but he’s doing very well given the surgery was Friday. Already going on walks through the corridors. 

Edited by Mr. Ham
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9 hours ago, jvdesigns2002 said:

 

Here are a couple articles that detail what studies estimate the actual number of infected people in Wuhan to be.  I'd say these numbers are more in line with how the Chinese are responding to the epidemic far more than the numbers that their government is reporting. 

https://www.usnews.com/news/health-news/articles/2020-01-31/study-estimates-actual-coronavirus-case-count-in-wuhan-may-be-near-76-000

https://www.ccn.com/bombshell-study-estimates-75800-individuals-affected-coronavirus-wuhan/

At least this would indicate the mortality rate is well under the reports.  Brings it marginally higher than a regular flu.

Edited by Sand

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Getting some indication factories and things outside the really hot zones will get rolling 2/10.  Maybe.

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9 minutes ago, Sand said:

At least this would indicate the mortality rate is well under the reports.  Brings it marginally higher than a regular flu.

I don't think we can trust anything out of China unfortunately, excepting to treat it as an admitted minimum.  

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22 minutes ago, Sand said:

At least this would indicate the mortality rate is well under the reports.  Brings it marginally higher than a regular flu.

How so? You're going to assume that the fatality numbers the Chinese government is releasing are accurate?  No way that a country like China would effectively shut itself down for weeks on end, and quarantine some of its largest cities for a disease that has a mortality rate marginally higher than the flu.   This thing is bad--we'll never know the number of fatalities and thus we'll never know the true mortality rate.  

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2 minutes ago, jvdesigns2002 said:

How so? You're going to assume that the fatality numbers the Chinese government is releasing are accurate?  No way that a country like China would effectively shut itself down for weeks on end, and quarantine some of its largest cities for a disease that has a mortality rate marginally higher than the flu.   This thing is bad--we'll never know the number of fatalities and thus we'll never know the true mortality rate.  

The incubation period/asymptomatic transmission is enough cause to take extreme precautions. You seem to be in a hurry to get the world in a panic.

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1 minute ago, Apple Jack said:

The incubation period/asymptomatic transmission is enough cause to take extreme precautions. You seem to be in a hurry to get the world in a panic.

I'm not in a hurry for anything.  I'm just implementing common sense.  It's not debatable--the Chinese have lied about this disease every step of the way. Experts in studying disease are saying that the number of infected are significantly higher than what they are reporting. I choose to trust the experts more than I trust a dictatorial government that has lied every step of the way.   That's not creating panic--thats being objective and realistic. 

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25 minutes ago, jvdesigns2002 said:

I'm not in a hurry for anything.  I'm just implementing common sense.  It's not debatable--the Chinese have lied about this disease every step of the way. Experts in studying disease are saying that the number of infected are significantly higher than what they are reporting. I choose to trust the experts more than I trust a dictatorial government that has lied every step of the way.   That's not creating panic--thats being objective and realistic. 

As of now, cases outside of China have not proliferated. That’s the gauge I’m watching most closely. We’re within the incubation period, so wouldn’t expect to see the exponentials that COULD be happening in China. Encouraging news out of Thailand today that they’ve effectively treated the virus with anti-HIV drugs.

I got pretty peeved today that a J&J Exec was being interviewed on MSNBC, and the anchor was trying to end the interview to get back to politics, but I thought the exec dropped a bomb. He said J&J got the virus sequence a month ago! So if things are out of control in China, it’s at least 3 weeks ahead of where the rest of the world is now. Wouldn’t expect the virus to behave fundamentally differently based on national borders. Yes, transparency and aggressive measures will help, but if it’s in fact a barn burner, we’d start to see flare ups in the coming week that would be indicative of a problem. In lieu of that, things might plateau.

Edited by Mr. Ham

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18 hours ago, culdeus said:

How have we gone from not that bad to full on prepper for a disease that seems to only wreck boomers?

Yes, and male Boomers with heart disease at that

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11 hours ago, fissure man said:

They were my favorite rap group until about 1992.

Rampage an all time great song.

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Maybe I should have worn a mask while traveling after all. Developed a nasty hacking cough over night. In addition to traveling, including two short layovers between Austin and West Palm in Harts-field-Jackson (one flight in an International Terminal,) I also spent two days in hospital waiting areas in Boca. So pretty much nice knowing you boys, I’m presently deleting my browsing history while making a last ditch effort to save myself with a Trader Joe’s detox tea. Will it be enough though?

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China accuses the US of spreading fear about the virus...

Meanwhile, there is new that the antiviral drug provided by the US, Remdesivir, seems to be working...

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2 minutes ago, bradyfan said:

 

Meanwhile, there is new that the antiviral drug provided by the US, Remdesivir, seems to be working...

Made by Gilead. :oldunsure::tinfoilhat:

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10 minutes ago, bradyfan said:

China accuses the US of spreading fear about the virus...

They also said the US isn't doing enough to help fight it.  Oh, also, China turned down help from the US to help fight it. 

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1 hour ago, Mr. Ham said:

Maybe I should have worn a mask while traveling after all. Developed a nasty hacking cough over night. In addition to traveling, including two short layovers between Austin and West Palm in Harts-field-Jackson (one flight in an International Terminal,) I also spent two days in hospital waiting areas in Boca. So pretty much nice knowing you boys, I’m presently deleting my browsing history while making a last ditch effort to save myself with a Trader Joe’s detox tea. Will it be enough though?

I have been drinking hibiscus tea this week because it is packed with Vitamin C.  I drank some honeysuckle tea last week - bought a small packet when I was last in Beijing.

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I feel a sore throat coming on and we're getting ready to hop on a plane to go to Florida this Thursday.  My fear is one of us will get a normal sickness and not be allowed to fly.

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15 hours ago, eoMMan said:

I thought preppers were more worried about an EPMD pulse blast? Now they're jumping on the virus bandwagon?

Pick a team.

With all due respect, this post doesn't make you look terribly bright. 

:unsure:

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35 minutes ago, [icon] said:

With all due respect, this post doesn't make you look terribly bright. 

:unsure:

Can't joke anymore? Prepping is serious business I guess?

 

Eta: With all due respect, my post was obviously made in jest. Your reaction to it doesn't make you look terribly bright.

Edited by eoMMan
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Neat start to the stock market week 

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2 hours ago, Mr. Ham said:

Maybe I should have worn a mask while traveling after all. Developed a nasty hacking cough over night. In addition to traveling, including two short layovers between Austin and West Palm in Harts-field-Jackson (one flight in an International Terminal,) I also spent two days in hospital waiting areas in Boca. So pretty much nice knowing you boys, I’m presently deleting my browsing history while making a last ditch effort to save myself with a Trader Joe’s detox tea. Will it be enough though?

@Mr. Ham> wait!

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10 minutes ago, culdeus said:

Neat start to the stock market week 

I don’t think we are supposed to talk about that in here, even though you’re the first person to actually talk about it in here. 

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On 2/1/2020 at 9:09 PM, bradyfan said:

China CDC Situation Report on Feb-01

Suspected cases: +4562 new  ==>  19544 total

Confirmed cases: +2590 new  ==>  14380 total

Severe: +315 new  ==>  2110 total

Dead: +45 new  ==>  304 total

Recovered: +85 new  ==>  328 total

Numbers published last night.

 

China CDC Situation Report on Feb-02

Suspected cases: +5173 new  ==>  21558 total

Confirmed cases: +2829 new  ==>  17205 total

Severe: +186 new  ==>  2296 total

Dead: +57 new  ==>  361 total

Recovered: +147 new  ==>  475 total

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On 2/1/2020 at 8:45 PM, Otis said:

Zombie apocalypse?

Coronavirus won't turn you into a 'zombie,' says Malaysia.
Link

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2 minutes ago, bradyfan said:

Coronavirus won't turn you into a 'zombie,' says Malaysia.
Link

...YET. :coffee:

 

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1 hour ago, jamny said:

Made by Gilead. :oldunsure::tinfoilhat:

Case detail of US patient treated with remdesivir Link

Thailand used a cocktail of other existing drugs -  oseltamivir (aka Tamiflu) an anti-flu drug used to treat MERS and HIV drugs lopinavir and ritonavir.

Edited by bradyfan
Typo

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5 minutes ago, bradyfan said:

China starts remdesibvir human trial in Wuhan Link

This looks like the person who was in charge of naming this just smashed their keyboard and said, "Run with it." 

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2 minutes ago, TheIronSheik said:

This looks like the person who was in charge of naming this just smashed their keyboard and said, "Run with it." 

Oh, that is a typo in my post.  It should be “Remdesivir”.

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52 minutes ago, moleculo said:

@Mr. Ham> wait!

Think I wrote my report at about 5am local. Came on as severe coronavirus, then morphed to a persistent Ebola, and finally settled into what appears to be a mild chest cold. As long as my neighbors board their houses, it should be fine.

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Let's talk statistics.  We are now well into this thing and have >300 cases with 1 fatality outside china.  

You have 10000 cases in China with 300 odd fatalities.

Why the mismatch?  Options I see:

  1.  China is severely under-reporting the numbers infected and the fatality rate is actually in the 0.1% range.
  2. China facilities are completely overwhelmed and the fatality rate is spiraling due to the quality of care
  3. It takes far longer to survive than the two weeks previously reported.
  4. ???

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20 minutes ago, culdeus said:

Let's talk statistics.  We are now well into this thing and have >300 cases with 1 fatality outside china.  

You have 10000 cases in China with 300 odd fatalities.

Why the mismatch?  Options I see:

  1.  China is severely under-reporting the numbers infected and the fatality rate is actually in the 0.1% range.
  2. China facilities are completely overwhelmed and the fatality rate is spiraling due to the quality of care
  3. It takes far longer to survive than the two weeks previously reported.
  4. ???

Dead patients (including suspected cases not yet tested) are directly transported out of hospitals for cremation (no funerals).  Some people in China tried to calculate because funeral homes near Wuhan hospitals have been operating 24x7 at full capacity.

Edited by bradyfan

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20 hours ago, Tom Servo said:

Great. We've gone full apocalyptic prepper here. :rolleyes:  You want to share your guns and ammo stockpile while you're at it?

:lol: 

The federal government advises every family have food/water supplies for 72 hours of shut in. I've stretched it 6 weeks to be safe. It's a small corner of my guest room closet about the size of a micro fridge. If you think that makes me a "Full on apocalyptic prepper" then you don't get out much :lmao: 

Hypothetically a situation like what China is dealing with surfaces here and you've got to lock down at your home for ~3 weeks. What's your plan? Run to the grocery store and brave worse-than-black-friday crowds grab some food? You already prepared for that? Or just don't think it could happen? Not being a smartass, sincere question. 
 

Edited by [icon]

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2 hours ago, eoMMan said:

Can't joke anymore? Prepping is serious business I guess?

 

Eta: With all due respect, my post was obviously made in jest. Your reaction to it doesn't make you look terribly bright.

I blame the superbowl hangover for the poorly calibrated sarcasm detector. My apologies GB 

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3 hours ago, bradyfan said:

Meanwhile, there is new that the antiviral drug provided by the US, Remdesivir, seems to be working...

Link on this? Would love to read more. 

EDIT: Human trials beginning for Remdesivir and Kaletra in China.

A proper antiviral drug that is effective against this thing would be huge. Reportedly worked on a 35yo US man recently. 

Edited by [icon]

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4 minutes ago, [icon] said:

Link on this? Would love to read more. 

I hear the drug ?:AEOLabohnl is also working pretty well in Europe.

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1 hour ago, bradyfan said:

Case detail of US patient treated with remdesivir Link

That is a healthy mid 30's guy that needed supplemental oxygen and experimental drugs.

I wonder how quickly production of Remdesivir can be ramped up?

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2 minutes ago, MTskibum said:

That is a healthy mid 30's guy that needed supplemental oxygen and experimental drugs.

I wonder how quickly production of Remdesivir can be ramped up?

If the trials work, I suspect we will find out! 

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1 hour ago, [icon] said:

:lol: 

The federal government advises every family have food/water supplies for 72 hours of shut in. I've stretched it 6 weeks to be safe. It's a small corner of my guest room closet about the size of a micro fridge. If you think that makes me a "Full on apocalyptic prepper" then you don't get out much :lmao: 

Hypothetically a situation like what China is dealing with surfaces here and you've got to lock down at your home for ~3 weeks. What's your plan? Run to the grocery store and brave worse-than-black-friday crowds grab some food? You already prepared for that? Or just don't think it could happen? Not being a smartass, sincere question. 
 

Not even close to being worried about it.

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3 hours ago, culdeus said:

Let's talk statistics.  We are now well into this thing and have >300 cases with 1 fatality outside china.  

You have 10000 cases in China with 300 odd fatalities.

Why the mismatch?  Options I see:

  1.  China is severely under-reporting the numbers infected and the fatality rate is actually in the 0.1% range.
  2. China facilities are completely overwhelmed and the fatality rate is spiraling due to the quality of care
  3. It takes far longer to survive than the two weeks previously reported.
  4. ???

1. While it's entirely possible that China is under-reporting the deaths, they're almost certainly under-reporting the case count.  This thing has been brewing since mid-December.  They have no idea how many have it and don't have testing capacity to find out.

2. I think this is a big one.  A Chinese hospital in the red-zone might be the worst place to be right now.  Which then plays into #1 and the under-reported cases.  Sick people might be staying home if they're not in critical condition.

3. No idea.

4. Fecal-oral transmission.  I'm curious about the differences in socitial hygiene between central China and the West.  Along this route, I think overwhelmed hospitals in the red-zone might struggle with contamination control.

Anyway, I'm rooting for the global community to figure this out.  This week is big.  If we start seeing exported outbreaks...

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Am I the only one that hears Busta Rhymes every time Wuhan is referenced?

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On 1/22/2020 at 8:12 AM, TheIronSheik said:

I got that chest cold #### that make you break your neck,
Wuhan! I got you all in check.

 

3 minutes ago, Worm said:

Am I the only one that hears Busta Rhymes every time Wuhan is referenced?

Nope.  I'm right there with you, GB. :lol:

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2 minutes ago, TheIronSheik said:

 

Nope.  I'm right there with you, GB. :lol:

You 2 have no idea how happy/relieved this makes me.  I've been saying this to my wife and friends for 3 weeks now to blank faces and I'm the idiot.

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1 hour ago, Tom Servo said:

Not even close to being worried about it.

😂 I figured you'd be in the "I'll just go to Kroger" crowd. I wish ya the best of luck w that strategy. :thumbup:

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1 minute ago, Hugh Jass said:

You 2 have no idea how happy/relieved this makes me.  I've been saying this to my wife and friends for 3 weeks now to blank faces and I'm the idiot.

:lmao:

:hifive:

 

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Better tests are needed.  Right now up to 3 tests are needed to confirm some patients and one required 4.

Link

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7 hours ago, Mr. Ham said:

Maybe I should have worn a mask while traveling after all. Developed a nasty hacking cough over night. In addition to traveling, including two short layovers between Austin and West Palm in Harts-field-Jackson (one flight in an International Terminal,) I also spent two days in hospital waiting areas in Boca. So pretty much nice knowing you boys, I’m presently deleting my browsing history while making a last ditch effort to save myself with a Trader Joe’s detox tea. Will it be enough though?

It's not N-Cov 2019. The incubation period (symptom free at that) is two weeks. That said, get well soon. Did you know that the normal flu kills far more people every year ;) 

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3 hours ago, culdeus said:

Let's talk statistics.  We are now well into this thing and have >300 cases with 1 fatality outside china.  

You have 10000 cases in China with 300 odd fatalities.

Why the mismatch?  Options I see:

  1.  China is severely under-reporting the numbers infected and the fatality rate is actually in the 0.1% range.
  2. China facilities are completely overwhelmed and the fatality rate is spiraling due to the quality of care
  3. It takes far longer to survive than the two weeks previously reported.
  4. ???

300/10000= 0.03

1/300= 0.03333

What mismatch?

ETA: Is this MoPmathTM?

Edited by msommer
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