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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread

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It really is admirable the work that has been done to prepare our hospitals and clinics in such a small time window.

I used to think that working for this place was like working for an evil overlord, but the coordination, best-practice sharing and cooperation available from an organization like this can really impact the well-being of our patients and communities.

 

[/pride]

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Of course, after this is all over, they'll go right back to slashing costs and I'll feel like a henchman in no time, I'm sure.

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saw CV referred to as “the flu on steroids” today.  seems kind of accurate from a layman’s point of view.

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1 minute ago, hagmania said:

It really is admirable the work that has been done to prepare our hospitals and clinics in such a small time window.

I used to think that working for this place was like working for an evil overlord, but the coordination, best-practice sharing and cooperation available from an organization like this can really impact the well-being of our patients and communities.

 

[/pride]

Tell that to the angry nurses in SF demanding they be trained for what's coming there..

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1 minute ago, CurlyNight said:

Tell that to the angry nurses in SF demanding they be trained for what's coming there..

That is really unfortunate. I hope best practices and guidelines are developed and shared soon.

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Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, matuski said:

But seriously... you just said the death rate is dependent on many variables.  This isn't meant to be hilarious, nor political.

The deathrate = the number of deaths/the number infected.  

Just two variables.

eta - until we have the denominator, these numbers are meaningless.

If I may.

We can make some educated guesses on what the magnitude of the numbers are most likely to be based on the numbers we do have.

We know there are 12 reported deaths from covid-19. And we certainly know all deaths.  If you think that is under reported because some deaths might have been classified as normal flu then go ahead and triple it.  Got that number?

 

Its 36.

We also know it has spread to 17 states without a lot of testing going on, so, now take a guess at the real number of the total infected people right this second. 

 

If the number you guessed for total infected people right now this second is 1000 or more the mortality rate is less than the WHO Global rate of 3.4%.

And if your number is anything less than that you really have nothing to worry about. At this point you can not make the claim that it is infecting a huge number of people AND make the claim that the mortality rate is high at the same time. We simply do not have enough deaths to make that mathematically possible. Remember the WHO Global rate of 3.4% includes Wuhan where people eat bats and piss in the streets. 

It is more severe than the flu by an order of magnitude, but, its nowhere near the current WHO Global rate. My guess, that I'm taking bets on, is less than 1.0% using real reported numbers, not estimates, by November. 

 

ETA: Oh and I forgot, the only reason our deaths are at double digits is because the breakout happened in an elder care facility for people already deathly sick. 10 out of 12 are over the age of 60. 11 out of 12 were already sick with compromised immune systems. We could just as easily be sitting in the single digits right now.  

 

 

Edited by tonydead

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23 minutes ago, tonydead said:

If I may.

We can make some educated guesses on what the magnitude of the numbers are most likely to be based on the numbers we do have.

We know there are 12 reported deaths from covid-19. And we certainly know all deaths.  If you think that is under reported because some deaths might have been classified as normal flu then go ahead and triple it.  Got that number?

  Hide contents

Its 36.

We also know it has spread to 17 states without a lot of testing going on, so, now take a guess at the real number of the total infected people right this second. 

  Hide contents

If the number you guessed for total infected people right now this second is 1000 or more the mortality rate is less than the WHO Global rate of 3.4%.

And if your number is anything less than that you really have nothing to worry about. At this point you can not make the claim that it is infecting a huge number of people AND make the claim that the mortality rate is high at the same time. We simply do not have enough deaths to make that mathematically possible. Remember the WHO Global rate of 3.4% includes Wuhan where people eat bats and piss in the streets. 

It is more severe than the flu by an order of magnitude, but, its nowhere near the current WHO Global rate. My guess, that I'm taking bets on, is less than 1.0% using real reported numbers, not estimates, by November. 

 

ETA: Oh and I forgot, the only reason our deaths are at double digits is because the breakout happened in an elder care facility for people already deathly sick. 10 out of 12 are over the age of 60. 11 out of 12 were already sick with compromised immune systems. We could just as easily be sitting in the single digits right now.  

 

 

Please take note, everyone. Regardless of whether it's accurate, this is an effective way of demonstrating your opinion that the fears from Covid are being overblown. Even if you are obviously not amused by people dying, constantly reminding everyone that you are amused by any aspect of the situation is not needed. Particularly when there are people on these very boards who have friends and family potentially at risk of infection. I haven't seen hysterics from anyone in this thread, simply concern and passing along info that pertains to it. We can sort out what is or isn't accurate or helpful without resorting to mocking. Thank you

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7 minutes ago, Michael Brown said:

Please take note, everyone. Regardless of whether it's accurate, this is an effective way of demonstrating your opinion that the fears from Covid are being overblown. Even if you are obviously not amused by people dying, constantly reminding everyone that you are amused by any aspect of the situation is not needed. Particularly when there are people on these very boards who have friends and family potentially at risk of infection. I haven't seen hysterics from anyone in this thread, simply concern and passing along info that pertains to it. We can sort out what is or isn't accurate or helpful without resorting to mocking. Thank you

I think......that...might be ....a....compliment?   I'm not really sure because I've been drinking.  Heavily.  To keep the virus out. 

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Personally I'm not worried. I'm a 54 year old male in good health. I do typically have 2 months of food on hand. I also have a water dispenser and usually five 5 gallon bottles on hand, a soda stream and multiple cartridges to make seltzer and a vacuum seal machine. That's all just for convenience. I stocked up on some  toiletries like TP for my bunghole and a few others.

I'm most worried about supply chain demand shortages and stock market decline due to panic and/or cancellation of major events.

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I already work from home and I'm pretty insulated from any possible carriers so I'm not worried in he least about contacting, even if I do, my survival rate is like 99%. It's the day to day disruption and market losses that scare me.

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6 hours ago, matuski said:

$8.3 Billion.

I would love to see where this goes.

The wall?

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3 hours ago, fred_1_15301 said:

And as Matuski has stated over and over again, death rate right now is not a completely meaningful measure.

I said nothing about death rate. The absolute number of infected, severe cases and deaths spread over several continents in a relatively short period is quite meaningful IMO.

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Maybe a stupid question but:

given the shortage of tests and the like, why don’t we just assume that anyone with a cough or cold at this point has this, and just self quarantines immediately?  Why wait on a positive test?  And if that person starts to get really really sick, they get themselves to a hospital and let everyone there know as much so they can head to the special wing or whatever?

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Had a friend over for dinner that's a health care worker.  She believes the entire thing is a hoax to make Trump look bad and influence the election.  She is convinced that this is the same as the common cold. 

Assuming she is wrong, this is a horribly dangerous mindset.   People that are spreading this misinformation to the public are culpable when others get infected and die.  She literally said that if the 11 people in Washington didn't die from Covid-19 they would have died from something else, and probably the flu. 

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2 minutes ago, Otis said:

Maybe a stupid question but:

given the shortage of tests and the like, why don’t we just assume that anyone with a cough or cold at this point has this, and just self quarantines immediately?  Why wait on a positive test?  And if that person starts to get really really sick, they get themselves to a hospital and let everyone there know as much so they can head to the special wing or whatever?

Because it's an election year.

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3 minutes ago, Otis said:

Maybe a stupid question but:

given the shortage of tests and the like, why don’t we just assume that anyone with a cough or cold at this point has this, and just self quarantines immediately?  Why wait on a positive test?  And if that person starts to get really really sick, they get themselves to a hospital and let everyone there know as much so they can head to the special wing or whatever?

Good idea, but will employers be willing to accept a big chunk of the workforce calling in sick?

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2 minutes ago, Terminalxylem said:

Good idea, but will employers be willing to accept a big chunk of the workforce calling in sick?

What are they going to do when a big chunk of the workforce is sick?

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12 minutes ago, -fish- said:

What are they going to do when a big chunk of the workforce is sick?

Great question, especially when the workforce includes healthcare providers.

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4 hours ago, fred_1_15301 said:

Because there isn’t any data out there that suggests that I or my immediate family is at any significant  risk of this having a serious impact on our lives.   :shrug: 

That’s completely untrue

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1 hour ago, -fish- said:

Had a friend over for dinner that's a health care worker.  She believes the entire thing is a hoax to make Trump look bad and influence the election.  She is convinced that this is the same as the common cold. 

Assuming she is wrong, this is a horribly dangerous mindset.   People that are spreading this misinformation to the public are culpable when others get infected and die.  She literally said that if the 11 people in Washington didn't die from Covid-19 they would have died from something else, and probably the flu. 

:lmao:

 

Unreal

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59 minutes ago, -fish- said:

Had a friend over for dinner that's a health care worker.  She believes the entire thing is a hoax to make Trump look bad and influence the election.  She is convinced that this is the same as the common cold. 

Assuming she is wrong, this is a horribly dangerous mindset.   People that are spreading this misinformation to the public are culpable when others get infected and die.  She literally said that if the 11 people in Washington didn't die from Covid-19 they would have died from something else, and probably the flu. 

It might be a coping mechanism for what is a very stressful situation.  She will likely be in close proximity to a large number of very contagious people.  It is maybe easier on her psychological state to be a denialist than accept the very dangerous situation inevitably headed her way.

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1 hour ago, Terminalxylem said:

Good idea, but will employers be willing to accept a big chunk of the workforce calling in sick?

Aren’t we headed in that direction anyway?

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Posted (edited)
5 hours ago, fred_1_15301 said:

Because there isn’t any data out there that suggests that I or my immediate family is at any significant  risk of this having a serious impact on our lives.   :shrug: 

Define serious impact. What sort of odds Of being hospitalized would you need for this to be on your radar? 

How old are you and your wives' parents? Aunts, uncles? Are you close? 

Edited by [icon]

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4 hours ago, tonydead said:

If I may.

We can make some educated guesses on what the magnitude of the numbers are most likely to be based on the numbers we do have.

We know there are 12 reported deaths from covid-19. And we certainly know all deaths.  If you think that is under reported because some deaths might have been classified as normal flu then go ahead and triple it.  Got that number?

  Reveal hidden contents

Its 36.

We also know it has spread to 17 states without a lot of testing going on, so, now take a guess at the real number of the total infected people right this second. 

  Reveal hidden contents

If the number you guessed for total infected people right now this second is 1000 or more the mortality rate is less than the WHO Global rate of 3.4%.

And if your number is anything less than that you really have nothing to worry about. At this point you can not make the claim that it is infecting a huge number of people AND make the claim that the mortality rate is high at the same time. We simply do not have enough deaths to make that mathematically possible. Remember the WHO Global rate of 3.4% includes Wuhan where people eat bats and piss in the streets. 

It is more severe than the flu by an order of magnitude, but, its nowhere near the current WHO Global rate. My guess, that I'm taking bets on, is less than 1.0% using real reported numbers, not estimates, by November. 

 

ETA: Oh and I forgot, the only reason our deaths are at double digits is because the breakout happened in an elder care facility for people already deathly sick. 10 out of 12 are over the age of 60. 11 out of 12 were already sick with compromised immune systems. We could just as easily be sitting in the single digits right now.  

 

 

Nice post. Your point is well explained in a civil manner. 
 

Out of curiosity, please fill in the blanks with numbers that would trigger your concern: 

Cases: 
Hospitalizations: 
Deaths: 

Thanks 

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1 hour ago, -fish- said:

Had a friend over for dinner that's a health care worker.  She believes the entire thing is a hoax to make Trump look bad and influence the election.  She is convinced that this is the same as the common cold. 

Assuming she is wrong, this is a horribly dangerous mindset.   People that are spreading this misinformation to the public are culpable when others get infected and die.  She literally said that if the 11 people in Washington didn't die from Covid-19 they would have died from something else, and probably the flu. 

This is a special kind of stupid. 

A dangerous kind of stupid, Too.... 

but a special kind of stupid. 

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4 hours ago, tonydead said:

If I may.

We can make some educated guesses on what the magnitude of the numbers are most likely to be based on the numbers we do have.

We know there are 12 reported deaths from covid-19. And we certainly know all deaths.  If you think that is under reported because some deaths might have been classified as normal flu then go ahead and triple it.  Got that number?

  Reveal hidden contents

Its 36.

We also know it has spread to 17 states without a lot of testing going on, so, now take a guess at the real number of the total infected people right this second. 

  Reveal hidden contents

If the number you guessed for total infected people right now this second is 1000 or more the mortality rate is less than the WHO Global rate of 3.4%.

And if your number is anything less than that you really have nothing to worry about. At this point you can not make the claim that it is infecting a huge number of people AND make the claim that the mortality rate is high at the same time. We simply do not have enough deaths to make that mathematically possible. Remember the WHO Global rate of 3.4% includes Wuhan where people eat bats and piss in the streets. 

It is more severe than the flu by an order of magnitude, but, its nowhere near the current WHO Global rate. My guess, that I'm taking bets on, is less than 1.0% using real reported numbers, not estimates, by November. 

 

ETA: Oh and I forgot, the only reason our deaths are at double digits is because the breakout happened in an elder care facility for people already deathly sick. 10 out of 12 are over the age of 60. 11 out of 12 were already sick with compromised immune systems. We could just as easily be sitting in the single digits right now.  

 

 

The focus on the death rate for this disease is way too overblown.  

IF, as you sort of implied, the number of cases in the US is sitting at 1,000...the country is totally and completely screwed.  It's not all about death from the coronavirus, it's about society and healthcare as we know it.

On January 20th, there were 270 reported cases in Wuhan.  A week later they had 6,000. A week after that they had 20,000 and they were building hospitals and implementing strict quarantine measures THAT ARE STILL HAPPENING TODAY.  Without those measures, their hospitals would have been absolutely overrun and medical care would have come to a screeching halt.

So what if the US is in that situation and the hospitals are full, the nurses are working 80 hour weeks (will they do that?)  Now think bout the person that has a heart attack and goes to a completely full and overrun hospital?  What about the car accident?  Someone with cancer who needs their treatments?  How will this chain reaction impact others that need medical care?

Not to mention the economy...how will the economy manage through the nationwide loss of productivity that's coming?  Or the global loss of productivity?  How will Southwest, American, Delta make it through the next few months if travel gets suspended or even just cut in half?

How will shopping malls fare when they are empty for the next few months?

What kind of an impact will that have on the stock market?  Your housing prices?  Your vacation plans?  

How will Trump handle this?  What if Trump gets sick and dies?  Or Biden and Bernie Sanders? (I mean they are all extremely susceptible).  What are the chances for political unrest?  Major social issues?

 

I don't think anyone wants any of those things to happen and the only way to stop it is to stop the spread right now, otherwise all that is coming.  We can argue about the actual death rates of this virus later on down the road.  

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6 hours ago, hagmania said:

You may be starting to understand the potential for concern.

I've followed this since the beginning and am well aware. It was just a question. Oh, and that number has since been changed.

Quote

Earlier media reports of 21 total cases of the new coronavirus in Westchester County alone were incorrect, Cuomo said.

 

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31 minutes ago, [icon] said:

Define serious impact. What sort of odds Of being hospitalized would you need for this to be on your radar? 

How old are you and your wives' parents? Aunts, uncles? Are you close? 

I said immediate family.  My elder extended family aren’t traveling anywhere.  They’re basically hermits  virus or no virus.  I believe the odds of this impacting me and my immediate family (from a health standpoint) are low enough where I’m willing to take a few risks.  Of course I can’t quantitate that risk.  Nobody can.  Doesn’t mean I disrupt my life.  BTW I understand the other side of the coin and have no problem if others choose to significantly change their every day life.  I plan to go on my couple trips that have already been booked for months and take the precautionary steps that are in my control (eg frequent hand washing)

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2 hours ago, Otis said:

Maybe a stupid question but:

given the shortage of tests and the like, why don’t we just assume that anyone with a cough or cold at this point has this, and just self quarantines immediately?  Why wait on a positive test?  And if that person starts to get really really sick, they get themselves to a hospital and let everyone there know as much so they can head to the special wing or whatever?

That's alot of people not working for two weeks 

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5 hours ago, joffer said:

saw CV referred to as “the flu on steroids” today.  seems kind of accurate from a layman’s point of view.

I'd have gone with SuperFlu and a Cadillac Eldorado

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1 hour ago, shader said:

That’s completely untrue

See above.  What exactly do you think my risk of this having a serious impact is?  

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I woke up in the middle of the night with my whole body tingling like when you have a fever. No aches, no chills, no other symptoms. Im convinced I have mild asymptomatic coronavirus.

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4 minutes ago, shadyridr said:

I woke up in the middle of the night with my whole body tingling like when you have a fever. No aches, no chills, no other symptoms. Im convinced I have mild asymptomatic coronavirus.

shoulda grabbed that TP when ya had a chance ...

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10 minutes ago, fred_1_15301 said:

See above.  What exactly do you think my risk of this having a serious impact is?  

Your risk, like my immediate family’s, is likely going to be due to economic and social reasons. But if this virus isn’t stopped soon, they are coming like a runaway train

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4 minutes ago, shader said:

Your risk, like my immediate family’s, is likely going to be due to economic and social reasons. But if this virus isn’t stopped soon, they are coming like a runaway train

BTW this is my decision on March 6th.  Not to say that I’m not open to changing my mind.  We will see where things stand a week from now.

I was only talking about health impact (economic impact is a different beast that does have me worried)

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Can @Terminalxylem (or any other fbg smart guys)  give thoughts on this virus and warm weather?  
 

I still haven’t seen a true outbreak in warm weather and this still gives me hope that April-May could see this virus slow down.

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Posted (edited)
25 minutes ago, fred_1_15301 said:

I said immediate family.  My elder extended family aren’t traveling anywhere.  They’re basically hermits  virus or no virus.  I believe the odds of this impacting me and my immediate family (from a health standpoint) are low enough where I’m willing to take a few risks.  Of course I can’t quantitate that risk.  Nobody can.  Doesn’t mean I disrupt my life.  BTW I understand the other side of the coin and have no problem if others choose to significantly change their every day life.  I plan to go on my couple trips that have already been booked for months and take the precautionary steps that are in my control (eg frequent hand washing)

I know you said immediate family. 

I was asking about your elders. If they got sick and passed would that impact your immediate family? Or are they not particularly important to you, your wife, or your kids?

 

Not being a smartass.. sincere question 

Edited by [icon]

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27 minutes ago, shadyridr said:

That's alot of people not working for two weeks 

How about until they are well?

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Posted (edited)
14 minutes ago, shader said:

Can @Terminalxylem (or any other fbg smart guys)  give thoughts on this virus and warm weather?  
 

I still haven’t seen a true outbreak in warm weather and this still gives me hope that April-May could see this virus slow down.

I think its a safe bet this will at the very least slow down by the summer. Water droplets evaporate much quicker in warm weather. 

Edited by shadyridr

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4 minutes ago, Apple Jack said:

How about until they are well?

That should be the case for any illness however suspected Corona cases are told to self quarantine for two weeks. 

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At this point I'm shocked how many people think this isn't a big deal. 

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Just now, shadyridr said:

That should be the case for any illness however suspected Corona cases are told to self quarantine for two weeks. 

Otis was talking about cold symptoms, which overlap a bit with covid19. Those usually pass quicker.

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11 minutes ago, [icon] said:

I know you said immediate family. 

I was asking about your elders. If they got sick and passed would that impact your immediate family? Or are they not particularly important to you, your wife, or your kids?

 

Not being a smartass.. sincere question 

Well yeah of course if something serious happened to anyone I was close to, it would have an impact on my life.  When my mom died of cancer 7 years ago, that certainly impacted my life.

But the whole point of my post was around how I’m choosing to live my life throughout all of this.  Not sure what that has to do with my elder relatives.  If I decide to go on this Vegas trip, I don’t know how that impacts the risk of my elder relatives.

Perhaps I don’t understand where you are going with this.......

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Sitting in DCA about to order a second bloody en route to puerto Vallarta to tee it up for a few days. #nomask

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2 minutes ago, fred_1_15301 said:

Well yeah of course if something serious happened to anyone I was close to, it would have an impact on my life.  When my mom died of cancer 7 years ago, that certainly impacted my life.

But the whole point of my post was around how I’m choosing to live my life throughout all of this.  Not sure what that has to do with my elder relatives.  If I decide to go on this Vegas trip, I don’t know how that impacts the risk of my elder relatives.

Perhaps I don’t understand where you are going with this.......

He was “sincerely” asking if it would be a big deal if someone died in your family...

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Just now, JerseyToughGuys said:

He was “sincerely” asking if it would be a big deal if someone died in your family...

Seriously

What dickbag question

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