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Big League Chew

*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread

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This isn't getting nearly enough press in the US.  I think the reason is that people here tend to believe official government numbers and the numbers coming from China are not scary.

But China has literally QUARANTINED like 5-10 of their major cities.  They've shut down all movie theaters.  If you go by their actions and not their words, this is a massive disaster unfolding. 

Perhaps I've seen too many movies and read too many books but this one scares the crap out of me. 

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13 minutes ago, glvsav37 said:

Normally I joke about most mass hysteria stuff, but illnesses scare the crap out of me. My wife is a teacher (so around lots of people) and had white blood/auto-immune issues, and my daughter has a weakened immune system b/c of medication for juvenile rheumatoid arthritis. Being sick around here is nothing to sneeze at.  (yea, I did that) 

Just received a notification that someone "who passed through" Nassau County is being tested for the virus.

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1 minute ago, baymen said:

Just received a notification that someone "who passed through" Nassau County is being tested for the virus.

ugh

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Just now, baymen said:

Just received a notification that someone "who passed through" Nassau County is being tested for the virus.

if "passed thru" is tantamount to "was on the RR", then we gonna have a massive fustercluck here ... currentky worming my way back from Kew Gardens ... haven't heard anything .... yet. 

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Some congressman have apparently been briefed and the incubation period is two weeks.  If that's so, then it's really bad news.

China is like the worst place on earth for one of these to start because they are so isolationist and the CDC can't go in there and get a handle on it.

Twitter is not a reliable source of info but if you go on twitter and look at hashtags it will really scare you.

I hope China is just being over-the-top in their handling of this virus and that any and all of the inflammatory info out there is just conspiracy stuff.  

What's not a conspiracy is that every major scientist in this field will all tell you that it's just a matter of time until the next outbreak. 

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Had a trip to Taiwan on China air scheduled first week of Feb.   Was told to cancel it regardless of fees or anything.  Full stop.  

This #### going full pandemonium?

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42 minutes ago, otb_lifer said:

if "passed thru" is tantamount to "was on the RR", then we gonna have a massive fustercluck here ... currentky worming my way back from Kew Gardens ... haven't heard anything .... yet. 

Notification came from Newsday

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21 minutes ago, culdeus said:

Had a trip to Taiwan on China air scheduled first week of Feb.   Was told to cancel it regardless of fees or anything.  Full stop.  

This #### going full pandemonium?

I'm supposed to be heading to Shanghai in April. Keeping a close eye on where this is going....I have a feeling that there will be a lot more clarity on what's really happening over the next two weeks. 

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38 minutes ago, culdeus said:

Had a trip to Taiwan on China air scheduled first week of Feb.   Was told to cancel it regardless of fees or anything.  Full stop.  

This #### going full pandemonium?

Yep we put immediate top to all travel into and out of China 

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Half watching PBS, and I thought I heard the expert say it’s not as bad as SARS. Is this any worse than the flu? 

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19 minutes ago, Zigg said:

Half watching PBS, and I thought I heard the expert say it’s not as bad as SARS. Is this any worse than the flu? 

Don't think so

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4 hours ago, shader said:

Some congressman have apparently been briefed and the incubation period is two weeks.  If that's so, then it's really bad news.

China is like the worst place on earth for one of these to start because they are so isolationist and the CDC can't go in there and get a handle on it.

Twitter is not a reliable source of info but if you go on twitter and look at hashtags it will really scare you.

I hope China is just being over-the-top in their handling of this virus and that any and all of the inflammatory info out there is just conspiracy stuff.  

What's not a conspiracy is that every major scientist in this field will all tell you that it's just a matter of time until the next outbreak. 

Yeah, a 14 day incubation period is really really bad. Likely tons of people carrying it have already traveled to other countries and spread it. Already too late to stop it spreading throughout the world IMO.

Saw something on the news this morning that they are building a new hospital in Wuhan specifically to deal with this. They are aiming to complete the hospital in 6 days. :shock:
 

Also heard that in typical Chinese reaction, rather than getting the word out quickly and alerting the rest of the world of the danger, China instead arrested anyone posting anything about it online initially.

Edited by GroveDiesel

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1 minute ago, GroveDiesel said:

Yeah, a 14 day incubation period is really really bad. Likely tons of people carrying it have already traveled to other countries and spread it. Already too late to stop it spreading throughout the world IMO.

Saw something on the news this morning that they are building a new hospital in Wuhan specifically to deal with this. They are aiming to complete the hospital in 6 days. :shock:

Wow.  Wonder if it’ll have Ethernet and all the bells & whistles. That’s fast

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Just now, Big League Chew said:

Wow.  Wonder if it’ll have Ethernet and all the bells & whistles. That’s fast

It’s China. It could be fine or it may totally collapse with everyone in it.

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Not being flippant — how is this different than SARS/bird flu/ other potential outbreaks?

Edited by Capella

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41 minutes ago, GroveDiesel said:

Yeah, a 14 day incubation period is really really bad. Likely tons of people carrying it have already traveled to other countries and spread it. Already too late to stop it spreading throughout the world IMO.

Saw something on the news this morning that they are building a new hospital in Wuhan specifically to deal with this. They are aiming to complete the hospital in 6 days. :shock:
 

Also heard that in typical Chinese reaction, rather than getting the word out quickly and alerting the rest of the world of the danger, China instead arrested anyone posting anything about it online initially.

Saw them building the hospital.  They had 40 to 50 backhoes moving dirt.  Looked unreal.

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6 hours ago, shader said:

Some congressman have apparently been briefed and the incubation period is two weeks.  If that's so, then it's really bad news.

China is like the worst place on earth for one of these to start because they are so isolationist and the CDC can't go in there and get a handle on it.

Twitter is not a reliable source of info but if you go on twitter and look at hashtags it will really scare you.

I hope China is just being over-the-top in their handling of this virus and that any and all of the inflammatory info out there is just conspiracy stuff.  

What's not a conspiracy is that every major scientist in this field will all tell you that it's just a matter of time until the next outbreak. 

This led me down a rabbit-hole that was really pretty scary from a pandemic and "who knows if they are legit videos!?!?" standpoint, but...

nothing was as troubling to me as this.

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2 hours ago, Capella said:

Not being flippant — how is this different than SARS/bird flu/ other potential outbreaks?

SARS-CoV fatality rate: 10% (774 of 8096 cases in 29 countries from November 2002 to July 2003)

MERS-CoV fatality rate: 35% (858 of 2494 cases in 27 countries, from September 2012 to date)

2019-CoV - ???

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9 minutes ago, bradyfan said:

SARS-CoV fatality rate: 10% (774 of 8096 cases in 29 countries from November 2002 to July 2003)

MERS-CoV fatality rate: 35% (858 of 2494 cases in 27 countries, from September 2012 to date)

2019-CoV - ???

I  saw 3% on Twitter today, but who knows with China running interference.

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Can we 

1 hour ago, facook said:

This led me down a rabbit-hole that was really pretty scary from a pandemic and "who knows if they are legit videos!?!?" standpoint, but...

nothing was as troubling to me as this.

i'm never going to unsee this.  

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1 hour ago, Tecumseh said:

I  saw 3% on Twitter today, but who knows with China running interference.

Most likely the outbreak will end by summer because coronavirus does not like high temperature and high humidity.

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23 minutes ago, facook said:

This led me down a rabbit-hole that was really pretty scary from a pandemic and "who knows if they are legit videos!?!?" standpoint, but...

nothing was as troubling to me as this.

Definitely nothing bad could possibly come of that, including me almost puking at my computer. 

1 hour ago, culdeus said:

Can we 

i'm never going to unsee this.  

Word. Exactly. 

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2 hours ago, Mr. Ham said:

:shock:

So after seeing your reaction as well as the reaction of others that clicked that link—do you mind giving me the cliff notes version of what the link shows?  Being that I’m squeamish—I’m not going to click it. 

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3 minutes ago, jvdesigns2002 said:

So after seeing your reaction as well as the reaction of others that clicked that link—do you mind giving me the cliff notes version of what the link shows?  Being that I’m squeamish—I’m not going to click it. 

Some dude dipping live mice in what appears to be drawn butter and chomping down.

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3 minutes ago, Tecumseh said:

Some dude dipping live mice in what appears to be drawn butter and chomping down.

Oh wow. Yeah—I’m not clicking that.  Thank you for saving me from puking my guts out. 

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8 hours ago, Jules Winnfield said:

Minnesota has two suspected cases reported and samples sent for testing

The health organizations in every country must take care of at least two things.  I hope China does more on #2 because it is especially important when 2019-nCoV has deceivingly mild initial symptoms.

1. Test, monitor, isolate and treat suspected patients.

2. Educate their people on how to avoid catching the virus and what to do if they get sick.

Edited by bradyfan

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Trying to remember which pandemic we had someone coming on here and telling us all to take collodial silver or die

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Grabbed 100 N95-rated disposable masks for $30ish as a just in case precaution given China's sketchy reporting and rapidly escalating nature of this. Cheap/easy insurance. 

Figure that's a good 2-3 mo supply for us assuming semi-daily trips out of the house. 

Best case, it's another small box in the supplies closet for the inevitable bad outbreak. 

Worst case, this ends up with a SARS esque fatality rate and cases start popping up all over the US. Masks will be impossible to find or cost 10x that.

Edited by [icon]

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 https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/25/world/asia/china-coronavirus.html
 

LIVE UPDATES
Updated 18 minutes ago

Coronavirus Live Updates: China Suspends Tours Abroad as Xi Warns of ‘Grave Situation’

The authorities reported 15 new deaths in Wuhan, the center of a virus outbreak, including a medical professional in his 60s.

RIGHT NOW

The State Department has ordered all American workers at the United States Consulate in Wuhan to evacuate.

 

:eek: 

Edited by [icon]

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I get freaked out when I see people in public wearing masks. I’m always wondering, is that mask for you or me? If it’s for me, why are you outside???? 

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2 minutes ago, [icon] said:

 https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/25/world/asia/china-coronavirus.html
 

LIVE UPDATES
Updated 18 minutes ago

Coronavirus Live Updates: China Suspends Tours Abroad as Xi Warns of ‘Grave Situation’

The authorities reported 15 new deaths in Wuhan, the center of a virus outbreak, including a medical professional in his 60s.

RIGHT NOW

The State Department has ordered all American workers at the United States Consulate in Wuhan to evacuate.

 

:eek: 

They need to stay there. 

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https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/25/world/asia/china-coronavirus.html

Hong Kong declares a state of emergency and shuts schools.

On Saturday, Hong Kong’s leader, Carrie Lam, declared a health emergency in the semiautonomous Chinese city and said schools would be closed until mid-February.

The city is treating five coronavirus patients connected to Wuhan, and more than 100 others are suspected of having the viral pneumonia.

Hong Kong is also suspending flights and train services to Wuhan and will cancel all Lunar New Year celebrations. The Hong Kong Marathon, originally scheduled for early February, has also been called off.

Masks and hand sanitizers have sold out in most pharmacies in the city as residents have stocked up on supplies in a panic since last week.

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14 hours ago, bcat01 said:

Saw them building the hospital.  They had 40 to 50 backhoes moving dirt.  Looked unreal.

Username checks out 

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it was a run

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If this wipes out everyone above 70 the social security issue is solved.  

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2 hours ago, fissure man said:

I get freaked out when I see people in public wearing masks. I’m always wondering, is that mask for you or me? If it’s for me, why are you outside???? 

It’s an Asian thing. They think it’s to keep them from getting sick, but is basically ineffective. All a mask like that does is protect YOU from spreading droplets when coughing or what not. Airborne particulates pass around and through it no problem.

Morons.

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33 minutes ago, Jobber said:

It’s an Asian thing. They think it’s to keep them from getting sick, but is basically ineffective. All a mask like that does is protect YOU from spreading droplets when coughing or what not. Airborne particulates pass around and through it no problem.

Morons.

Scuba gear?

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From an hour or so on Twitter:

China’s only Level 4 virology lab is in Wuhan. (Only place they store and do research on the deadly stuff, including military.)  When SARS broke out, theory was that it jumped to people from civet cats in markets. Scientists from Wuhan Virology Institute tracked the origin to bats. Reportedly, they also were experimenting with engineering strains of coronavirus to study how it could spread in humans.

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/bat-cave-solves-mystery-of-deadly-sars-virus/

In last day, turns out the virus spreading in China (origin Wuhan) came from bats, and theories are it could have started with bat soup sold at a local market.

However, for obvious reasons there is SPECULATION that because of the coincidence of location of the Wuhan Virology Institute and the work to engineer particularly viral strains of bat originated coronavirus that it might have escaped confinement.

Apparently, early research into this new virus suggest that each patient will infect between 2.6 and 3.8 new patients, making it around 8 times more virulent than SARS.

China tried to contain the virus for at least a month in private. 

Take those as data points. 

 

Edited by Mr. Ham

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From Nature Magazine when Wuhan Level 4 Bio Lab was announced in 2017 as first of up to 5 in China by 2025.

https://www.nature.com/news/inside-the-chinese-lab-poised-to-study-world-s-most-dangerous-pathogens-1.21487

“Some scientists outside China worry about pathogens escaping, and the addition of a biological dimension to geopolitical tensions between China and other nations. But Chinese microbiologists are celebrating their entrance to the elite cadre empowered to wrestle with the world’s greatest biological threats.”

...

“Future plans include studying the pathogen that causes SARS...” [Like this virus, SARS is a bat originated coronavirus.]

...

“But worries surround the Chinese lab, too. The SARS virus has escaped from high-level containment facilities in Beijing multiple times, notes Richard Ebright, a molecular biologist at Rutgers University in Piscataway, New Jersey. Tim Trevan, founder of CHROME Biosafety and Biosecurity Consulting in Damascus, Maryland, says that an open culture is important to keeping BSL-4 labs safe, and he questions how easy this will be in China...”

SUMMARY - if the virus escaped the lab, it could have been engineered specifically to be virulent and spread quickly between humans, as part of a research project. Which might seem far fetched if not for China rocketing onto a trajectory to quarantine 50 million people and growing in a matter of days. 
 

No direct evidence to support that the virus did come from the lab, but it would be like if CDC lab were studying a specific virus in Atlanta, and an outbreak of that virus appeared suddenly in Atlanta. Could happen, but would raise eyebrows.

Edited by Mr. Ham
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4 hours ago, culdeus said:

Scuba gear?

If I recall correctly, SARS transmitted through plumbing and air vents connecting units in the same buildings.

Is it better to on the higher or lower floor if one lives in a mega city? Link

Edited by bradyfan

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7 hours ago, [icon] said:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/25/world/asia/china-coronavirus.html

Hong Kong declares a state of emergency and shuts schools.

On Saturday, Hong Kong’s leader, Carrie Lam, declared a health emergency in the semiautonomous Chinese city and said schools would be closed until mid-February.

The city is treating five coronavirus patients connected to Wuhan, and more than 100 others are suspected of having the viral pneumonia.

Hong Kong is also suspending flights and train services to Wuhan and will cancel all Lunar New Year celebrations. The Hong Kong Marathon, originally scheduled for early February, has also been called off.

Masks and hand sanitizers have sold out in most pharmacies in the city as residents have stocked up on supplies in a panic since last week.

I wonder if this will effectively end the democracy protests. That would be an unfortunate side effect.

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5 hours ago, Jobber said:

It’s an Asian thing. They think it’s to keep them from getting sick, but is basically ineffective. All a mask like that does is protect YOU from spreading droplets when coughing or what not. Airborne particulates pass around and through it no problem.

Morons.

The el cheapo masks don't do much but the proper N95 respirator masks (still paper with elastic ear loops) are quite effective against 2 way transmission of these viruses.

As such they are recommended by the CDC as effective. 

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https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-7922379/amp/Chinas-lab-studying-SARS-Ebola-Wuhan-outbreaks-center.html?__twitter_impression=true
 

Take Daily Mail with a grain of salt, but the map is interesting. 20 miles from the controversial virology lab, only one of its kind in China (handles most dangerous viruses) to the market government claims is the epicenter. 

It’s least conceivable that a virus engineered to spread people-to-people escaped a virology lab, which is a sobering prospect.

To be objectively, Daily Mail article includes this:

“...but the scientific community currently believes that the virus mutated through and jumped to people through animal-human contact at the market. 

But, 'at this point there's no reason to harbour suspicions' that the facility had anything to do with the outbreak, besides being responsible for the crucial genome sequencing that lets doctors diagnose it, Rutgers University microbiologist Dr Richard Ebright told DailyMail.com.”

An unsubstantiated theory which I don’t know, may be entirely implausible, is if the outbreak did start at the market someone might have smuggled test animals out of the lab and sold them there to make a buck - maybe someone tasked with destroying the animals that breeches protocols. That market sells rats, bats, snakes, and all manner of creatures. Would only have to happen once.

Edited by Mr. Ham

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