What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.

*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (3 Viewers)

He believes Cytodyn's drug, Lironlimab, will be an effective treatment.  He is QBing a three company team and working with the Chinese FDA to deliver this potential treatment.  More to come in the coming days.
Leronlimab has finished clinical trials for HIV treatment, correct? I am curious if the Chinese MNPA are willing to accept the American results as is, at least for HIV.

 
The CEO of a company that I am on the board of believes he has discovered the mechanism of action for the Coronavirus.  He believes Cytodyn's drug, Lironlimab, will be an effective treatment.  He is QBing a three company team and working with the Chinese FDA to deliver this potential treatment.  More to come in the coming days.
Now our FBG threads are infecting eachother?

 
Leronlimab has finished clinical trials for HIV treatment, correct? I am curious if the Chinese MNPA are willing to accept the American results as is, at least for HIV.
They accepted the safety data--840+ humans with no ASEs.

The thinking is that Lironlimab will beef up the immune system so combined with an HIV like anti-viral, it should be effective.

 
This may have already been discussed - scientists are reporting that the virus may be able to live in water droplets on door handles/etc for up to nine days outside the human body?  That seems bad.
Median life span 3 days, outliers 0 days and 9 days. Was didcussed a couple of pages ago. Culdeus brought the right info

 
China changing the definition of "Confirmed" as a rare blatant/public attempt to cook the books. 

https://twitter.com/lwcalex/status/1226840055869632512?s=20

Now if you test positive but aren't symptomatic, you're no longer "confirmed" :lol:   This obviously further obfuscates any chance at identifying the true scope of this outbreak. 
 
Fewer confirmed cases = higher death rate. So it's not really sure that the change is a PR move

 
That should be ready for burning sometime late 2021 if you cut it down now
If this pandemic can wait about 30 more days I'm scheduled to have that tree trimmed of all the dead wood up there. I probably have at least a cord of dead stuff up there. The tree trimmer is gonna take all the small stuff and leave me the firewood sized stuff. 

 
Update from CEO 

"We have resumed our operations in China and the team is working hard to get to full strength as soon as possible. Our immediate focus is on employee safety and customer support as we manage the impact of the novel Coronavirus. As always, please continue to put safety first and observe all Coronavirus precautions.

We face a significant challenge in our operations worldwide due to our supply from China. We are making every effort to return to normal operating levels. To support our efforts, our procurement and logistic teams are using global sourcing wherever possible to address supplier sourcing challenges."

Back to work over there apparently :unsure:

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Update from CEO 

"We have resumed our operations in China and the team is working hard to get to full strength as soon as possible. Our immediate focus is on employee safety and customer support as we manage the impact of the novel Coronavirus. As always, please continue to put safety first and observe all Coronavirus precautions.

We face a significant challenge in our operations worldwide due to our supply from China. We are making every effort to return to normal operating levels. To support our efforts, our procurement and logistic teams are using global sourcing wherever possible to address supplier sourcing challenges."

Back to work over there apparently :unsure:
Stonks 📈

 
Meanwhile in India: 

https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-cow-dung-cure-for-coronavirus-11581378967

Swami Chakrapani Maharaj, president of the Hindu Mahasabha—a century-old organization that advocates Hindutva (or “Hinduness”)—declared that “consuming cow urine and cow dung will stop the effect of infectious coronavirus.”

The swami added that a “person who chants ‘om namah shivay’ and applies cow dung” on his body “will be saved.” The Sanskrit chant is a salutation to Shiva, a Hindu deity.

The swami is a prominent figure in hard-line Hindu circles and has an ideological affinity with Mr. Modi


https://www.thenewsminute.com/article/wrongly-believing-he-has-coronavirus-andhra-man-kills-self-order-stop-spread-117979

"A man from Chittoor district suffering from a urinary tract infection took his own life after he mistook his symptoms for those of coronavirus. 54-year-old Balakrishnayya from Thottambedu village visited the Ruia Government General Hospital on Saturday for a medical consultation. According to his family members, miscommunication with the doctors led him to believe that he had coronavirus. 

“We told him that he did not have coronavirus, but he refused to let us near him. He told all the villagers to stay away. He would tell them that their kids would also end up contracting it if they came close to him,” Balakrishnayya’s son told reporters. 

...

According to his son, Balakrishnayya had panicked immensely, and started to believe he was a threat to the family and the village. “He started slinging stones at us when we tried to go near him. He said he needs to end his life immediately as he was a danger to the village. He told us not to come close and locked himself in,” he said. 

Balakrishnayya’s case seems to have been aggravated due to widespread misinformation on the disease, combined with insufficient measures by health officials in spreading awareness and calming people in such cases of false alarm. 

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Wait.  So we're supposed to stop eating cow #### and drinking cow urine?!?  #### that noise.  No way I'm giving up that just so half the world doesn't die.  :angry:
No...you're supposed to either start consuming it OR continue consuming it. Do NOT stop consuming it or the coronavirus wins.

 
Researchers at Imperial College of London estimate 19 people infected for everyone one confirmed. 
https://www.businessinsider.com/1-in-19-people-who-might-have-coronavirus-diagnosed-2020-2

"The Novel Coronavirus, 2019-nCoV, is Highly Contagious and More Infectious Than Initially Estimated" - Los Alamos National Lab Study
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.07.20021154v1.full.pdf

we estimated that the number of infected individuals during early epidemic double every 2.4 days, and the R0 value is likely to be between 4.7 and 6.6. We further show that quarantine and contact tracing of symptomatic individuals alone may not be effective and early, strong control measures are needed to stop transmission of the virus.


59 Suspected New Cases in Philippines 
https://www.cnnphilippines.com/news/2020/2/12/59-coronavirus-case-contacts-flu-like-symptoms.html

Fifty-nine contacts of the country’s first three confirmed cases of novel coronavirus are suspected of having the new viral disease now called COVID-19, a health official said Wednesday as authorities brace for the possibility of local transmission.

Of this number, 44 people came in contact with the Chinese couple from Wuhan – the Chinese city at the epicenter of the COVID-19 outbreak, while the rest were contacts of the third case – the 60-year-old Chinese woman, also from Wuhan, Health Undersecretary Eric Domingo said in a briefing.




Hong Kong Landlords Start to Slash Retail Rents as Virus Bites (paywall)
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-12/hong-kong-landlords-start-to-slash-retail-rents-as-virus-bites?utm_content=business&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business

 
"The Novel Coronavirus, 2019-nCoV, is Highly Contagious and More Infectious Than Initially Estimated" - Los Alamos National Lab Study
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.07.20021154v1.full.pdf
About this preliminary -- preliminary -- study: Keep in mind that anything on medrxiv.org is a preprint article. That means the studies and information at that site are not yet peer-reviewed. The methodology has not been replicated by other researchers. Other aspects of their study have not been reviewed for various types of biases and deficiencies.

It's not that the study is BS -- it's just that it might lean too much one way. Rate of transmission is an aggregated and estimated average, anyway. In some locales, it could be one ratio ... and then simultaneously be much higher or lower 20 miles away.

 
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m000f76k
 

Paraphrasing from Reddit (seems in line with general observations):

Interview on BBC with Epidemiologist and Director of Infectious Disease Analysis at Imperial College London.

(Neil Ferguson.)

Good news first:

Best guess at mortality rate 1%, not higher rates observed in China. (Though this is best guess.)

Bad news:

Containment has failed. Any and all usual suspect methods may slow it (hand washing, masks, quarantine,) but not contain it.

It will be a pandemic. 60% of population in UK will likely get it. 40m, 400k+ deaths. Extrapolate those numbers elsewhere. We’re essentially talking about something akin to seasonal flu, but 10x + as deadly. 

This is in line with Singapore PM addressing his nation with similar guidance, saying it’s likely trying to isolate and contain will be folly soon, so focus should be on not panicking, only burdening the healthcare system with severe cases, and maintaining social order.

I’d add China restarting industry as another indicator of the following reality:

This virus is going to infect much of, if not the majority, of the world population. We are going to have to life with the mortality rate, whatever that is. Best guess now is it’s anywhere from 1-3%. Focus should be on ways to get that number down as quickly as possible. Containing it is about as realistic as a global effort to contain the seasonal flu. 
On the other hand, the containment has undoubtedly slowed the spread and that buys us time for developing vaccines/cures/death panels.

 
If there is a total break down of society where no heat, water or electricity exists I am just going to kiss my ### goodbye.  I could probably weather two weeks on food in my home which is probably better then most people where I live but would freeze death given it is February and cold in the NE.   
Yup.  

Q: "Where do you want to be if they drop the bomb?"

A: "Under it."

 
And 19 cases for everyone detected seems more in line with reality. Remember, people aren’t all that sick at first, and severe symptoms occur weeks in, in only 15-30% of cases.

And yet patients may be spreading it in complete absence of symptoms.
Now this makes intuitive sense to me ... and I take it as good news.

A high number of asymptomatic carriers means that two rates are much lower than so far calculated: 1) rate of infected patients with severe symptoms, and 2) mortality rate. See the final paragraph of icon's Business Insider link a few posts above:

Still, the Imperial College researchers said comparing the death toll with this higher estimated number of cases suggests the coronavirus' fatality rate could be very low.

 
Hopefully the death rate is low, but it’s concerning that a double-digit number of patients go into distress.
So far as suspected now. I expect this rate to drop once better estimates of the number of asymptomatic/low-symptom carriers come in. 

 
Can anybody talk Ham off the ledge? I'm a little worried he's gonna feel a little warm one day and take the easy out like the dude in India. I'm concerned for your well being.

 
I don't know which one I posted last, but there was no update from the MedCram Youtube today. This one below covers the doctor who died... the one who brought attention to the issue. Around 5 minutes, they break down his hospitalization through his death. He was suspected of having the virus before 1/12/2020, when he was hospitalized, but he didn't text positive until 2/1/2020, and he died 6 days later. I don't know what it means, if anything, but I don't believe the shorter times being listed.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0UgrPgJdzp0&t=15s

I also heard China changed the way they determined infected, and that could be what is driving the decrease or plateau we've seen in new cases. I can't see how anyone can trust their numbers anyway, and the real question will be how things progress in other parts of the world.

 
Grace Under Pressure said:
Recent posts don’t match the panic induced thread title, nor recent news articles regarding the anticipated peaking of the virus. But FBGs gonna FBG, I guess.
Can you please link the "anticipated peaking of the virus" info that you have?

 
Blood drive at work today. They wouldn't take me because I changed planes in Hong Kong 3 weeks ago. BRB, making sure my will is up-to-date.

 
Mr. Ham said:
I mentioned a couple of times that I work for a major Fortune 50 tech company. We got internal guidance not to attend meetings of over 1k, and any meeting over 100 has special protocols and need on premise medical staff.

Have been wondering if we will go ahead with our major presence at Mobile World Congress, from 24-27 in Barcelona. Biggest mobile tech conference.
 Coronavirus leads to cancellation of massive MWC mobile trade show in Barcelona

You don't have to pull out now Ham!

 
What does the r-score of a virus indicate?
How contagious it is. The higher the number the worse it is with Measles being the worse with a score like R12-18, which means if someone has measles they infect 12 to 18 additional people.  

 
What does the r-score of a virus indicate?
How contagious it is. The higher the number the worse it is with Measles being the worse with a score like R12-18, which means if someone has measles they infect 12 to 18 additional people.  
COVID-19 (the Wuhan virus) is still too new to have sufficient historical data to pin down a R0 . Right now, varying sources give a fairly wide range** -- this will firm up after some months have passed, more data is collected, and a history can be worked out.

** scroll down to links 4, 5, and 6 to read more.

 
And it’s not really about this so much as it being a leading indicators for other things that will have to make judgments in light of current data in the coming weeks or months (like Olympics.) And when cases are local and fears are not due to international co-mingling, what else might get cancelled or close? This is simply a signal that things we are definitely not used to may materialize in 2020.
:coffee:

Mobile World Congress Cancellation Over Coronavirus Is Foreboding Sign for Events

First shoe to drop. Definitely won't be the only.

 
For sake of round numbers, let’s land on. 2.5% morality rate as a realistic but unfounded estimate. If you have a family of 4, would you be willing to go about normal life knowing that if your family catches it, you’re likely all going to get it, and there’s a 10% chance one of you will die? Let’s round it down to 1%. Same question. Are you willing to go about your business knowing there’s a 4% chance?
I think you are getting way ahead of yourself here.  We don't know any of these things like morality or Rscore.  I would not be surprised if Rscore is on the high side but think morality rate is way off at this point and will be much lower.  This is of course just my total guess.    

 
For sake of round numbers, let’s land on. 2.5% morality rate as a realistic but unfounded estimate. If you have a family of 4, would you be willing to go about normal life knowing that if your family catches it, you’re likely all going to get it, and there’s a 10% chance one of you will die? Let’s round it down to 1%. Same question. Are you willing to go about your business knowing there’s a 4% chance?
1) I don't believe those will be the eventual mortality rates. Just an educated (I hope) hunch ... but I'm not counting on rates nearly that high.

2) Even at 2.5% ... I wouldn't take that as a random 1-in-40 chance for any given individual. That's really something like "15% of people with compromised immune systems, then 12% of people over 70, then 10% of people with underlying respiratory conditions like COPD, etc." I would estimate (based on not much, admittedly) that the odds for me and mine would be astronomically low :shrug:  

...

I won't pretend all my decisions regarding COVID-19 are and/or will be coldly logical. And I have not gone through your experiences. In the end, I confess to having something of a blind optimism about all this. I understand and fully expect that others will differ.

 
I don’t know, but not encouraged by images and stories out of Wuhan. 
The images and stories -- even if all 100% true -- to me, are individual anecdotes and snapshots of something looking bad in some particular spot at some particular time. There's a combination of bad information, panic, overwhelmed medical facilities and staff, etc. going on in Wuhan ... so it's not hard to find terrible-looking slices of truth scattered about.

People aren't posting videos of asymptomatic carriers hanging out in their apartments, dudes with post-nasal drip coughing into their sleeve and reaching for the Vicks, etc. Basically, we're getting presented with the absolute worst in images and stories ... and being asked to believe that they represent the totality of truth. That those are the default conditions. That it's that bad over every inch of Wuhan. And all over China.

Pessimism and shock get clicks. I remain willfully skeptical, for better or worse.

 
I’ll defer to Neil Ferguson, epidemiologist I quoted above at 1% best guess. Still high. And fact is although you make sense and clearly extreme images and stories will be clustered, we don’t know how bad it is and have to watch what happens in places that are presumably more transparent.
I searched for that quote and it only shows up on Reddit and your link is to 3 hours of BBC radio.  I would love to hear him say all that stuff as I don't believe what is on some reddit thread.  

 

Users who are viewing this thread

Top