https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m000f76k
Paraphrasing from Reddit (seems in line with general observations):
Interview on BBC with Epidemiologist and Director of Infectious Disease Analysis at Imperial College London.
(Neil Ferguson.)
Good news first:
Best guess at mortality rate 1%, not higher rates observed in China. (Though this is best guess.)
Bad news:
Containment has failed. Any and all usual suspect methods may slow it (hand washing, masks, quarantine,) but not contain it.
It will be a pandemic. 60% of population in UK will likely get it. 40m, 400k+ deaths. Extrapolate those numbers elsewhere. We’re essentially talking about something akin to seasonal flu, but 10x + as deadly.
This is in line with Singapore PM addressing his nation with similar guidance, saying it’s likely trying to isolate and contain will be folly soon, so focus should be on not panicking, only burdening the healthcare system with severe cases, and maintaining social order.
I’d add China restarting industry as another indicator of the following reality:
This virus is going to infect much of, if not the majority, of the world population. We are going to have to life with the mortality rate, whatever that is. Best guess now is it’s anywhere from 1-3%. Focus should be on ways to get that number down as quickly as possible. Containing it is about as realistic as a global effort to contain the seasonal flu.