CurlyNight
Footballguy
Iran reports 1,289 new cases and 85 new deaths, raising total to 11,364 cases and 514 dead. 
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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (16 Viewers)
- Thread starter Big League Chew
- Start date
Jobber
Footballguy
IN before the golf honks start blagging about "thinning the herd" etc ...
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Doug B
Footballguy
Based on the NCAA cancelling all spring sports up to and including the College World Series ... I'd say the chances are practically nil of the basketball tournament ever being played.
It's not like everything's going to pass in a few weeks. For events like college sports, there will be no "all clear!" coming in April or May or anything like that.
IrishTwinkie
Footballguy
I had mentioned a while back that I have a PhD BioChemist friend who was the the CIO of a large hospital chain. He and I were talking again last night. He remains more positive about our collective ability to respond than I do. I brought up my concerns about capacity being overrun and he made this exact point about critical care availability. He mentioned that "just counting beds" is a poor metric. "A bed" comes with different levels of a care. A cot... well, it is "a bed". An ICU bed, which counts the same as the cot, that has all the bells and whistles comes with a whole lot of more critical care. His point is that while the US may not have as many beds per capita as say SK, we've become ICU bed heavy.
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
I was back of the enveloping this earlier...
People are infections for at least 10 days from exposure, even if they don't become symptomatic.
So once we implement nationwide social distancing we can expect cases to continue growing for at least two weeks.
And severe cases seem to involve 2-3 weeks of hospitalization.
Many places appear not to have reacted very strongly yet (schools, churches, etc still happening). My guess this AM was that once the testing starts to reveal the true level of infection and deaths grow from 100s to 1000s you'll see the "late adopters" shutting things down. Given the sharp rise in testing from here forward I estimated that would happen 2-3 weeks from now.
So 2-3 weeks before we have a sufficient nationwide reaction, cases continue to grow for 1-2 weeks after that, and hospitalization continues to grow for 2-3 weeks after that. That's a total of 5-8 weeks from now. If you take the mid-point of 6-7 weeks, that lands you in late April/early May.
Not sure how much better things have to get from there before people are willing to start normal life again, but I'd think there's a lag of at least a couple weeks. So I'm planning for at least two months of WFH and kids at home (mid-May) and longer if we haven't got our national #### together by the end of March.
E-Z Glider
Footballguy
We do IT support for small businesses. One of our clients told their remote office users to work from home if possible. One of the guys took this to mean that he should box up his entire desktop computer, dual monitors, and local printer and take it all home. He plugged everything back in and called this morning fuming because he couldnt get logged onto the network. Its gonna be a long couple weeks.
shader
Footballguy
It's been clear for days that Spain is right on Italy's heels and headed for disaster on an equal scale.
As of yesterday, they were tracking to Italy on March 3rd. That trend has continued and accelerated today.
CurlyNight
Footballguy
Great news for those who will struggle paying bills due to closures.
https://sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com/2020/03/13/pge-suspends-nonpayment-disconnections-coronavirus-covid-19-response/amp/?__twitter_impression=true
https://sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com/2020/03/13/pge-suspends-nonpayment-disconnections-coronavirus-covid-19-response/amp/?__twitter_impression=true
jplvr
Footballguy
I had to explain to someone what a browser was last night. "I just click on the blue e."
Doug B
Footballguy
Even without a magic-bullet COVID treatment ... the knowledge gained by studying this thing and it's spread for 7-8 months will be invaluable to mitigating the effects of subsequent outbreaks. For one, that's more time to collaborate with economic allies and get "easy & fast" testing ramped way up. Like "do 10 million tests in a week" ramped up.
In turn, with (much) more testing, you get earlier detection of cases and more effective isolation of carriers. This is basically South Korea's model right now.
Meanwhile, anti-viral research continues. Hopefully, before long, there will be something like the "Mercury 7 program" of vaccine testing going on by year's end.
The Big Donkey
Footballguy
Mark Lazerus✔@MarkLazerus
There once was a player named Rudy.
He touched our recorders quite rudely.
His hands were unclean,
He had COVID-19,
Now all sports are canceled. Well, doody.
There once was a player named Rudy.
He touched our recorders quite rudely.
His hands were unclean,
He had COVID-19,
Now all sports are canceled. Well, doody.
CurlyNight
Footballguy
Boston Marathon postponed until 9/14.
The General
Footballguy
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
Our county Super sent out an e-mail last night saying this. "Our county is low risk for community transmission" and "we'll close schools with a positive test and reopen 2-14 days later". Not sure I've ever seen a more unanimous reaction from parents on any subject. He changed his mind by morning and closed everything.
Doug B
Footballguy
No, it's a very valid question that already has an answer: the spread of the virus is inevitable.
The idea is to spread the infections over a long enough time period for the medical system (at whatever capacity is available) to keep pace. Just because all humans will likely get the virus within, say, a decade doesn't mean it's beneficial to have everyone get infect all at once to "get it over with". Lives -- many millions of them -- can be saved.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Ilov80s
Footballguy
My wife told me I was crazy 2 weeks ago but she did it anyway. So also thanks to everyone here.I know it has been mentioned but bears repeating. Thanks to everyone in this thread that got me to casually buy a little more food each time to stock up over the past few weeks so I don't have to go out and shop now if I don't want to.
E-Z Glider
Footballguy
Senor Schmutzig
Footballguy
Ok, I'm now going with cultural differences aka ignorance. I live down here and have seen it on a continuous basis over the past week or so.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
Fah who foraze! Dah who doraze!
Be gone Covid go away.
Fah who foraze! Dah who doraze!
Be gone Covid, do not stay!
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
How is this different than the Chinese sharing the full genome on 2/25? Is this a step forward somehow?
Doug B
Footballguy
The executive branch (probably via the FDA or another agency) can grant immunity to the manufacturers. I'm not really saying "rush and build them lousy" anyway. I mean more like an engineering challenge ... ventilators have been around a long time. What do they have now that they didn't have, say, in the 1970s? Would 1970s-style ventilators -- or something based on that design -- be useful in an emergency situation? And so forth.
shader
Footballguy
I've had time to digest the spreadsheet @icon posted last night. Some of the variables could be wrong, and can be adjusted to change things. But it does a great job of pointing out the issues with death rates/confirmed cases, etc.
Sheet is here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ZSuR2yc-8JpMAuuhXR7Qw3xQfjTDdcEM1Q5WvKoz3cw/edit#gid=0
Let's imagine that sheet is accurate and understand what the numbers really mean:
Number of People Infected: 203,854 - That sounds like a lot! How on earth are there 200k people infected in the USA and our medical centers aren't being overrun?
Number of People in Incubation Stage -110,050 - That's a shocking number. This means that over half of the US infections are people that are in the incubation stage, ie, they are showing no symptoms and don't know they have the corona virus. These are people that are being caught in South Korea. These are people that are NOT being caught anywhere else.
Number of People in pre-hospitalization stage - 192,757 - 95% of people in this country with the corona virus are in the PRE-hospitalization stage. That means their possible trip to the ICU is in the future.
Now some of the variables in the spreadsheet may be inaccurate and I'll leave it to others to debate whether or not those are right/wrong and adjust numbers. But this is the single best tool I've seen on these boards since we've been discussing this to illustrate the reality of the situation.
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I'm all in for social distancing, cancelling events, stopping the spread, etc. But I'm getting pretty sick of being inundated with every single company's "response to Covid 19" email - I've heard from my bank, my insurance company, my lawyer, my doctor's office, PetSmart, CVS, Allen Edmonds, REI. What do I care what Allen Edmond's response to the virus is?
Statorama
gangster
TP / Kleenex aisle completely cleaned out at the local Wal-Mart. Diapers and baby food stocked normally. That seems off to me.
From an intellectual curiosity standpoint, it's oddly fascinating to see this kind of mass panic.
I only say this because I love you all like brothers and sisters...if you don't have a gun, think about getting a gun. I don't think this virus is going to lead to the "dog eat dog" times where you'd need it. But in the future if we get hit with something, and the food shelves end up looking like the TP shelves do today, you don't want to be defenseless when you've got the last ham sandwich in hungrytown.
From an intellectual curiosity standpoint, it's oddly fascinating to see this kind of mass panic.
I only say this because I love you all like brothers and sisters...if you don't have a gun, think about getting a gun. I don't think this virus is going to lead to the "dog eat dog" times where you'd need it. But in the future if we get hit with something, and the food shelves end up looking like the TP shelves do today, you don't want to be defenseless when you've got the last ham sandwich in hungrytown.
msommer
Footballguy
This is a good point. A good counter point, given that the US has per profit healthcare, that the US has become ICU bed heavy because of demand. Demand that the coronavirus cases will add to, not replace
Statorama
gangster
Good grief, totally agree.
Side note: The email I got from my employer yesterday was basically "We're very troubled by all the news / please take precautions / but yeah...you still have to work"
CurlyNight
Footballguy
Doug B
Footballguy
A lot of people in this thread have been asking about this -- especially regarding the limitations of an individual VPN -- and I've not seen anyone really address it.
For those who aren't particularly familiar with telework: it's likely that you don't have to stay on your VPN the entire time you're working ... or even all that much at all. Chiefly, you'd need to be on the VPN to transfer files back and forth from (a) your laptop at home to (b) a machine at your office or a centralized server somewhere. But typically, you can do the rest of your work with those files offline, without being on the VPN.
So, throughout your work-from-home day ... you'd be jumping on the VPN to move files, save to a central server, etc. and then jumping back off again. Talk to your IT folks at your work if you have them ... if not, your company's "computer guy". Or else I am happy to answer any questions about this here, either in this thread or via PM if we don't want to derail things too much here.
Or maybe a "Work From Home Issues & Answers" help thread? There's a ton I don't know, but I have worked from home off and on for 17 years -- I am happy to help brainstorm solutions and share what I know. There's also a lot of smarter folks in here that have helped with this kind of stuff in the FFA in the past and can likely help now.
El Floppo
Footballguy
still crickets from mine.
I'm over 50 with pre-existing conditions (I suppose)... it would be nice to know that they're at least working on a plan- I'm in the "can't afford to miss much time/paychecks" camp.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
El Floppo
Footballguy
doug- you're doing the lord's work in here... can't thank you enough for the info you've been providing all along- above and beyond.
there's a work from home thread set up already... not sure if it's a questions and answers thing yet, but seems like it mgith as well be.
shadrap
Footballguy
you get my bologna if you can pry it from my cold dead fingers. or something like that.
Doug B
Footballguy
Maybe one of the ideas was minimizing the spread from young healthies to older professors, ancillary staff, etc. in typical college settings. At least kids going clubbing or partying amongst themselves generally spares the AARP set.
gump
Footballguy
Re Sports (and the business of licensed products)...the assumption is unique here vs strikes, Anthem-gate, and other work stoppages or major player/league driven negative impacts on the business side in that everyone feels fans will come flooding back as soon as the leagues begin again. So jerseys companies, etc are planning to be ready for that demand...vs planning to start cutting things off.
Doug B
Footballguy
JaxBill
Footballguy
I stocked up on about a month's worth of liquor. i talked to the liquor store owner, "I wanted to get in and out early before the madness sets in." He looked at me like I had 3 heads and said "Nah. Won't be too bad aside from a normal Friday night. " i just shrugged my shoulders and left.
I went to Publix and they were busy but not hurricane busy. Definite tension in the air. More like there's a tropical storm out there and we're not sure if it will be a Cat4 or where it will hit mood. TP gone. My wife had been there 90 minutes earlier and grabbed a pack. I grabbed some Ibuprofen and some pseudoephedrine. We have plenty of acetaminophen.
I had a Starbucks gift card and went there for a pound of coffee to take home. Plenty of people in outside tables enjoying the great weather.
Less serious news i grabbed a corned beef brisket flat that I'll smoke for some pastrami, rye bread, kraut, Guinness and some Tullamore Dew. If my ancestors had survived prolonged famine and poverty, we can get through this. Slainte!
msommer
Footballguy
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2Young2BBald
Footbaldguy
Thank you!! I work for a Fortune 40 Company and my daughter for an huge lending institution so we are very well supported, we both presume (on a call last evening, it was mentioned the company has close to 90K VPN Portals (I think)?). Reading your post, it would seem that living in the EST, it would make sense to do the most online early in the morning to avoid major traffic. As an aside, while it was nice to have pancakes with the whole family for breakfast this morning, I fear this'll lose its luster, fast. I travel full time for work with extended deployments, then breaks at home and, being honest, have become accustom to so time to myself.
JaxBill
Footballguy
i also got red potatoes I'm going to grill with onions and carrots in a pan with brown sugar Guinness sauce.You need more potatoes for a culturally correct diet
Buck Bradcanon
Footballguy
Finally watched the Katie Porter video. Hero.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Which is why I think it's important for the Fed Govt to help back that financially. Those companies that took losses then should have had those losses potentially covered.
Don Quixote
Footballguy
Alright, I give up....
John Roberts
@johnrobertsFox
After telling @FoxNews that his father had a preliminary POSITIVE test for coronavirus, Eduardo Bolsonaro now tells @FoxNews the test was NEGATIVE. Bolsonaro says has been in touch with the White House.
MTskibum
Footballguy
Doug B
Footballguy
Don't be sorry for posting that article -- it's great to know that there are so many teams worldwide working on different aspects of the problem. And it's not the scientists' fault that the reporter didn't understand their research.
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
No snark, I just don't understand this stuff well enough to interpret it. This is helpful for a vaccine I'm guessing?
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Doug B
Footballguy
Even I think that the heat/humidity/UV combo will help ... I just don't think it will do magic. And, schmidt ... I could be deluding myself about all that.
