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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (8 Viewers)

cosjobs said:
Zoinks?
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He wanted to know what was in it. It didn't have any extra active like Tylenol or something.  

Also realized when I pulled the box out my wife's rx ended up on the counter and got a photo of it too.  

 
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[icon] said:
It wouldn't be Memphis in May if you weren't here to follow me around Like a puppy dog (although you're doing a pretty good job of it in this thread) :lol:  

When is it time for the next stage where you get belligerently drunk, annoy half the team, then cap it off by a stumbling over your own feet, splitting your face open? ;)  
 
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Clearly not this May!

2022 maybe?

 
jwb said:
My brother and sister in law both work at the hospital (he's a radiology tech, she's an RN) - he tells me the medical community in general feel like it's already been here and has infected millions since Dec. Tons of people who thought they had the flu may very well have had this. 
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I keep thinking what I had in January sounds like this.

 
Murph said:
If people don't get it by now they never will. Wife was supposed to go to Vegas next month with a friend who is a known germophobe. Said friend can't believe everything is shutting down and thinks it's hysteria. This person brings their own silverware to restaurants and refuses to stay at AirBnBs. Some people are just insane.
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I am the exact opposite. Not a germaphobe at all. But I'm not risking much right now and asking my parents to minimize all risks possible. That means a lot of time with my kids, in and around my house. I would be willing to go to an outdoor area and visit with another family, but but inside their house.  That's where I am right now.

I'm not sure exactly what to do about going out to eat or ordering takeout. I'll let my wife guide me on that front.

 
The Z Machine said:
I am the exact opposite. Not a germaphobe at all. But I'm not risking much right now and asking my parents to minimize all risks possible. That means a lot of time with my kids, in and around my house. I would be willing to go to an outdoor area and visit with another family, but but inside their house.  That's where I am right now.

I'm not sure exactly what to do about going out to eat or ordering takeout. I'll let my wife guide me on that front.
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You and I are similar. I usually subscribe to the George Carlin theory of giving your immune system target practice. But this thing is the real deal. Even with shutdowns starting I still don't think we're taking this seriously enough as a nation. I'm not so worried for my own personal health given my age but the population level effect is going to be a shock to the system.

 
jwb said:
My brother and sister in law both work at the hospital (he's a radiology tech, she's an RN) - he tells me the medical community in general feel like it's already been here and has infected millions since Dec. Tons of people who thought they had the flu may very well have had this. 
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Would that be a good thing?  Meaning, maybe the death rate isn’t nearly as bad as they are thinking?  Obviously not ideal if so many people have it but that would make me think we are just hearing the absolute worst cases and it’s not as bad as feared.

 
matuski said:
I believe we are north of 100k tests done right?

How were they able to isolate it?
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https://innovationorigins.com/dutch-researchers-find-corona-virus-antibody/

Possible antibody found, which may lead to medicines. 

From the article: 

“We have been too lax and were ill-prepared. For example, there were too few tests and too few restrictions from the outset, even though we saw what happened in China and then Italy.”

They are hoping to begin testing soon and mass production in about 4 months. In order to release this, they will need at least two things - tests that show the results of the medicine, and a baseline to compare them with. Part of the reason it's so necessary to test now is that it helps to get that baseline.  

It's also really important to understand the spread and morbidly rate.  I know you think that horse is out of the barn, but we can estimate it within good confidence levels based on the numbers of reported cases, hospitalizations, and fatalities, and compare it with other populations.  That data may help with "COVID-20" or some later iteration of these bugs, and the opportunity to collect it is not something we should squander. 

I think you're right about some of your skepticism around testing but that doesn't mean we don't urgently need it. 

 
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joffer said:
I keep thinking what I had in January sounds like this.
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My wife got a cough around christmas.  I got it a week later. Both coughs lasted about a month.  Slight fever for a couple days each  

17 year old daughter had some mild symptoms, but not too bad. 
11 year old son and the twins 3 year olds never showed anything. 
im thinking its possible.

 
Are there any reputable articles that discuss the possibility of it being here in the US for months but being confused for other things? The anecdotal stories are one thing but I'd like to read something where people have put their name to it. 

 
My wife is a respiratory therapist at a local hospital.  Pretty much the front lines when it comes to treatment for people who need hospitalization due to covid-19.

She just got an email that all staff who can work from home should work from home.  How nice.  Obviously doesn't apply to her.  No word on how she's supposed to avoid getting it.  I happen to have a chronic blood disorder that hoses my immune system.  Are we supposed to separate for the next few months or until she gets it and beats it, which ever comes first? 

oh btw- they have 19 Vents, 4 or 5 that are already occupied.  So yeah, the shortage is pretty frightening.  They have another 15 bipaps if those are at all effective for this.

 
bostonfred said:
https://innovationorigins.com/dutch-researchers-find-corona-virus-antibody/

Possible antibody found, which may lead to medicines. 

From the article: 

“We have been too lax and were ill-prepared. For example, there were too few tests and too few restrictions from the outset, even though we saw what happened in China and then Italy.”

They are hoping to begin testing soon and mass production in about 4 months. In order to release this, they will need at least two things - tests that show the results of the medicine, and a baseline to compare them with. Part of the reason it's so necessary to test now is that it helps to get that baseline.  

It's also really important to understand the spread and morbidly rate.  I know you think that horse is out of the barn, but we can estimate it within good confidence levels based on the numbers of reported cases, hospitalizations, and fatalities, and compare it with other populations.  That data may help with "COVID-20" or some later iteration of these bugs, and the opportunity to collect it is not something we should squander. 

I think you're right about some of your skepticism around testing but that doesn't mean we don't urgently need it. 
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Wasn’t there some thoughts a while back that they have found promising results with some existing drugs?  That’s what I assumed would happen - they would find something that really helped those impacted.

 
AAABatteries said:
Apologies if this has been posted and I missed it (hard to keep up with this thread) - is there a good source or link to find out details about the deaths in the U.S.?  I’m very concerned about my parents - I’ve told them to stay indoors and I can bring them what they need but they can tend to be stubborn.
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We should have my 96 year old Dad give them a call. When this thing broke, I was terrified that he would fall into the stubborn camp. But he has really surprised us. He's totally on board with indoors and everything else he's supposed to do. We break the monotony by taking him for drives, etc. 

 
RUSF18 said:
Are there any reputable articles that discuss the possibility of it being here in the US for months but being confused for other things? The anecdotal stories are one thing but I'd like to read something where people have put their name to it. 
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Seems unlikely.  The Chinese Dr. inWuhan saw FOUR cases in his hospital and recognized it as a novel virus.  And we'd have seen a lot of unusual pneumonia deaths that seem not to have occurred.

 
Redwes25 said:
How was the bat soup?

It came from China and those crazy wet markets they have. Those need to be banned. 
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I thought they banned them.  While they're at it they really need to ban homeopathic medicine there.  They're causing extinctions.  Rhinos, pangolins, Tigers, etc.  All due to China.  

(I've never been to China, so likely not patient zero.)

 
joffer said:
am i reading that right?  italy's mortality rate is >7%?
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Mortality rates will vary based on volume and capacity. If one person gets sick, the mortality rate will be low. If 1,000 people get sick at the same time in the same region, the rate will be much higher. If 1,000 people get sick and the treatment team is among those, the sky is the limit. No hospital beds, not enough ventilators, and no medical staff = start praying. 

 
bcat01 said:
Scroll down to the video of the Italian papers obituaries.  This shows how real the danger is.  Italian Obituaries 
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Sad.

Yeah, the "number" that isn't always getting discussed or realized isn't just the deaths directly related to coronavirus.  It's the other patients with other diseases that can't get the care they'd otherwise get because the system is getting overwhelmed there.  Older and sicker patients that can't get respiratory support, for example, and end up dying.  We may eventually see and get an idea of what the number is, but it's certainly not insignificant.

 
Sand said:
I thought they banned them.  While they're at it they really need to ban homeopathic medicine there.  They're causing extinctions.  Rhinos, pangolins, Tigers, etc.  All due to China.  

(I've never been to China, so likely not patient zero.)
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They closed them after SARs then reopened them. Understand currently closed but they need to be permanently banned. Should have been done after SARS 

 
AAABatteries said:
Would that be a good thing?  Meaning, maybe the death rate isn’t nearly as bad as they are thinking?  Obviously not ideal if so many people have it but that would make me think we are just hearing the absolute worst cases and it’s not as bad as feared.
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I'd love a scenario where all of a sudden this all ends and we realize that it was far more widespread than anyone thought and the death rate wasn't nearly that bad.  But we don't have an ounce of data suggesting that.  Personally I'm wary of personal opinions and trying to trust the data, whether that's smart or not.

 
RUSF18 said:
Are there any reputable articles that discuss the possibility of it being here in the US for months but being confused for other things? The anecdotal stories are one thing but I'd like to read something where people have put their name to it. 
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No there are not.  They aren't shutting down borders and quarantining people all around the world for a virus that could hang out in the general population for months with little to no difference in hospitalization and death rates than the flu.  

 
My in-laws, who are near 80 and live in Florida, just texted my wife to say, "Dad went out this morning and can't find any toilet paper. We are down to two rolls."

Now, they are from MN so didn't actually ask for anything, but this was their cry for help. The TP hoarding is stupid and this is why it matters. They have been paying attention to everything so clearly should have been aware that TP was going to be hard to find, but apparently just never thought it through. My word. We have some on hand and are going to ship an 8-roll pack to them today, but seriously? This is where we're at?

It never would have occurred to me to ask them if they had TP on hand. Apparently that isn't such a dumb question. If you know anyone who is elderly - neighbors, friends, friends of family, etc. - please check on them. Ask if they have everything they need.

 
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AAABatteries said:
Would that be a good thing?  Meaning, maybe the death rate isn’t nearly as bad as they are thinking?  Obviously not ideal if so many people have it but that would make me think we are just hearing the absolute worst cases and it’s not as bad as feared.
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This is a small sliver I am hoping for but don’t expect. Fingers crossed. 

 
A social media post I just saw and really is a great summary, especially for those who are still out and about because it's not in their area yet.  And yes, I know a lot of this is already known and talked about here, but still figured I'd share it.
 

Dear Friends,

So much confusion, misinformation and denial is bouncing around on social media about the coronavirus that I thought I would try to explain, in plain language, why the experts see this as such an emergency.

You will see the claim online that this virus is a lot like the viruses that cause colds, and that if you get it, it will probably just seem like a bad cold and you are very unlikely to die. Depending on who you are, these statements are probably true. But they are incomplete, and the missing information is the key to understanding the problem.

This is a coronavirus that is new to the human population, jumping into people late last year from some kind of animal, probably at a wildlife market in Wuhan, China. It is related to the viruses that cause colds, and acts a lot like them in many ways. It is very easy to transmit through the respiratory droplets that all of us give off. But nobody has ever been exposed to this before, which means nobody has any immunity to it.

The virus is now moving explosively through the human population. While most people will recover, about 20 percent of the people who catch it will wind up with a serious disease. They will get pneumonia that causes shortness of breath, and they may need hospitalization.

Some of those people will get so sick that they cannot be saved and will die of the pneumonia. The overall death rate for people who develop symptoms seems to be 2 or 3 percent. Once we have enough testing to find out how many people caught the virus but did not develop symptoms, that might come down to about 1 percent, optimistically.

This is a large number. It is at least 10 times higher than the mortality rate for the seasonal flu, for instance, which in some years kills 60,000 or 70,000 Americans. So just on that math, we could be looking at 600,000 or 700,000 dead in the United States. But it gets worse.

Older people with existing health problems are much more vulnerable, on average. The mortality rate of coronavirus among people over age 80 may be 15 or 20 percent. It appears to have 7 or 8 percent mortality for people aged 70 to 79. Here is the terrible part: If you are a healthy younger person, you can catch the virus and, without developing serious symptoms yourself, you can pass it along to older people. In other words, as the virus spreads, it is going to be very easy to go out and catch it, give it to your grandmother and kill her, even though you will not die yourself. You can catch it by touching a door knob or an elevator button.

Scientists measure the spread of an epidemic by a number called R0, or “R naught.” That number is calculated this way: for every person who develops the illness, how many other people do they give it to before they are cured (or dead) and no longer infectious? The R0 for coronavirus, in the absence of a control strategy, appears to be a number close to 3 – maybe a bit higher or lower, but in that ballpark. This is an extremely frightening number for such a deadly disease.

Suppose you catch the virus. You will give it to 3 other people, and they will each give it to three others, and so forth. Here is how the math works, where you, the “index case,” are the first line:
1
3
9
27
81
243
729
2,187
6,561
19,683
59,046
177,147
531,441
1,594,323
4,782,969
14,348,907

So, in just 15 steps of transmission, the virus has gone from just one index case to 14.3 million other people. Those 15 steps might take only a few weeks. The index person may be young and healthy, but many of those 14 million people will be old and sick, and they will likely die because they got a virus that started in one person's throat.

The United States is not at this point yet, with millions infected, as best we can tell. We don’t really know, because our government has failed us. We are many, many weeks behind other countries in rolling out widespread testing, so we don’t really have a clue how far the thing has spread. We do know that cases are starting to pop up all over the place, with many of the people having no known exposure to travelers from China, so that means this virus has escaped into our communities.

We do not have approved treatments, yet. We do not have a vaccine. The only tool we really have now is to try to slow down the chain of transmission.

This can be done. In other words, R0 is not fixed – it can be lowered by control measures. If we can get the number below 1, the epidemic will die out. This is the point of the quarantines and the contact-tracing that you are hearing so much about in the news. But the virus is exploding so fast that we will not have the labor available to trace contacts for much longer, so we have to shift strategies. This has already begun, but we are not doing it fast enough.

It is now likely that the majority of Americans will get this virus. But slowing it down is still crucial. Why? Because the healthcare system has limited resources. We only have about a million hospital beds in America. We have well under a million ventilators. If millions of Americans get sick enough to need treatment, we will have a calamity on our hands. What will happen is a form of battlefield triage, where the doctors focus on trying to treat the young and allow the older people to die.

This is not theoretical. It is already happening in Italy, where people over 65 are being left alone on hospital gurneys to suffocate to death from pneumonia. They basically drown in their own sputum. There is simply not enough medical capacity to take care of them. The United States appears to be about two weeks behind Italy on the epidemic growth curve.

What do we need to do now? We need to cancel all large gatherings – all of them. You have probably seen that the N.B.A. has postponed the rest of its season. Other sporting events, concerts, plays and everything else involving large audiences in a small space – all of it needs to be canceled. Even if these events take place, do not go to them. No lectures, no plays, no movies, no cruises – nothing.

Stay at home as much as possible.Stay out of restaurants. I would cancel any travel that is not absolutely essential. Work from home if you possibly can. You may have to go buy groceries and medicine, of course, but make the trips quick and purposeful. Wash your hands assiduously after you have been in public places, for a full 20 seconds, soaping up thoroughly and being sure to get between the fingers. Sunlight and alcohol will kill the virus.

And please stop passing around statements on social media claiming that the situation is not serious or is being exaggerated. This is a national crisis, and conveying misinformation to your friends and family may put their lives in danger”
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soothsayer said:
My in-laws, who are near 80 and live in Florida, just texted my wife to say, "Dad went out this morning and can't find any toilet paper. We are down to two rolls."

Now, they are from MN so didn't actually ask for anything, but this was their cry for help. The TP hoarding is stupid and this is why it matters. They have been paying attention to everything so clearly should have been aware that TP was going to be hard to find, but apparently just never thought it through. My word. We have some on hand and are going to ship an 8-roll pack to them today, but seriously? This is where we're at?

It never would have occurred to me to ask them if they had TP on hand. Apparently that isn't such a dumb question. If you know anyone who is elderly - neighbors, friends, friends of family, etc. - please check on them. Ask if they have everything they need.
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local Lowes had a huge display of bottled water, TP (store brand), and Clorox as soon as you walked in. Just an idea for them

 
jamny said:
Offshoot poll:

We live in Queens NY. We recently bought a condo in Boise, Idaho. We had plans before all this went down to be going there for a week starting next Sunday. We are fully stocked here in NY, where we have lived our whole lives. Where all of our friends and family are.  The only living parent is my wife's mother, who to be honest, she doesn't really get along with. Her brother lives here. Since we've only been to Boise once since buying (in downtown, walkable to everything) we have barely any food or supplies there. We also don't really know anyone outside of people we just met briefly. It's a beautiful condo, great walking, open air, nice drives and an awesome hospital system compared to the horrible Elmhurst hospital we would be subjected to here.  We are taking a chance of transporting the virus there. We might be lepers there to them, especially since their first case was from NY. We might not be able to get back to NY that soon but financially we could handle it. What would you do?
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20-3 to go. I'm actually surprised at the results. Lots of risks with either option but I thought the security of staying would win out. We figure that we'll give it until Wednesday to make the call. Should be a clearer choice by then and it might actually be made for us if flights cancel. Just checked and our NY to Minneapolis flight, before going to Boise, shows that we are the only ones in first class and about 30 people total on the plane. I'm sure that will change and I'm thinking it will cancel. Would the flight attendant have to do the safety drill standing right in front of us? 

Thanks to those that voted.

 
Murph said:
If people don't get it by now they never will. Wife was supposed to go to Vegas next month with a friend who is a known germophobe. Said friend can't believe everything is shutting down and thinks it's hysteria. This person brings their own silverware to restaurants and refuses to stay at AirBnBs. Some people are just insane.
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Thanks for showing your work

 
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I am pretty tired of every medical worker now thinking they are an expert and having to weigh in. 

Look I get it, you are a physical therapist that is active on social media, but you arent getting your information from classes you are taking, you are just reading the same articles everybody else is. 

 
FBG26 said:
How long until everybody's hands are so dry from washing hands that we see a run on hand lotion at the stores? 
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I think the run on lotion from everybody being at home with just their computers and no sports would have already happened. 

Eta: they actually sell sanitizing lotion. Winning

 
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