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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread

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12 hours ago, shader said:

Either China are absolutely lying through their teeth (in what would be a truly a despicable lie that puts millions at risk), or their extreme quarantine procedures are working very well.  Their official numbers have been falling the last 3-5 days.

One thing to consider, yesterday there was a post in this thread from twitter that showed China changed the definition of "confirmed" to doctor the numbers.

Credit to @[icon] for the original post: https://twitter.com/lwcalex/status/1226840055869632512?s=20

Edited by beer 30

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13 minutes ago, beer 30 said:

One thing to consider, yesterday there was a post in this thread from twitter that showed China changed the definition of "confirmed" to doctor the numbers.

Credit to @[icon] for the original post: https://twitter.com/lwcalex/status/1226840055869632512?s=20

I can see where they might have a justification in doing this.  If 85% (?) don't even require you to to go the hospital then there's not a super defined reason to count them.  They need to plan for cases they have to have beds, and cases that go to the ICU.  

If you watch how they are managing the hot spots there appear to be a triage hospital, then you either recover or go.....somewhere else.  Whether that's euthanasia or ICU is anyone's guess.  

Counting those that get it and get IT is wise.  

Put it this way, do we really count people that get the flu but recover at home? No.

This isn't really my opinion on this, just want to put out an alternative non conspiracy type rationale.

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27 minutes ago, beer 30 said:

Meh. Drawing lines between places people travelled isn’t going to panic me. What is panicking me are inconsistencies and logic holes in expected versus actual. Let’s just remember that China knew about this and thought they could manage it for 7 or 8 weeks, and then it exploded to a still unknown degree. We’re hearing now that some patients that tested negative multiple times test positive some weeks later. Models show that there should be cases we’re not seeing, and the explanation for why we aren’t has me very nervous. My worry is that we will inevitably see those cases in one form or another. Either those cases will present en masse at a later time, or the spread is happening widely now and we’ll see the secondary and tertiary cases before we see the handful of spreaders themselves. Maybe this is what happened in Wuhan?

All remains to be seen, but regardless of what you think about me, there are logic gaps in expected versus actual and until that is resolved in a way that reassures that hundreds of places will go full Wuhan within a month, I’m twitchy.

Might be at least productive to ask yourself if you’re prepared that if the several hundred cases outside of China become several thousand within a scant few days. That is at the very least a potential outcome.

We have a normalcy bias, and we can compare this to swine flu and SARS and get some comfort. It’s important to know that at minimum this is already not SARS. It’s going to be many orders of magnitude worse.

Edited by Mr. Ham

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They've given it a name:  COVID-19.

Lame!!!!!

That sounds like a droid in Star Wars.  Or a planet in Star Trek.  

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16 minutes ago, TheIronSheik said:

They've given it a name:  COVID-19.

Lame!!!!!

That sounds like a droid in Star Wars.  Or a planet in Star Trek.  

I saw Wuhan Virus a lot this past weekend, was kinda hoping they go with that. Agree, COVID-19 is lame.

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2 hours ago, Mr. Ham said:

Models show that there should be cases we’re not seeing ...

A model is only as good as the inputs.

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3 minutes ago, Doug B said:

A model is only as good as the inputs.

GIGO

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1 hour ago, beer 30 said:

I saw Wuhan Virus a lot this past weekend, was kinda hoping they go with that. Agree, COVID-19 is lame.

I've been just going with "The Wuhan"...kind of like "The Flu".

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13 minutes ago, zoobird said:

I've been just going with "The Wuhan"...kind of like "The Flu".

Maybe Sandler can make a movie, "You Don't Mess With the Wuhan"

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This may have already been discussed - scientists are reporting that the virus may be able to live in water droplets on door handles/etc for up to nine days outside the human body?  That seems bad.

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1 hour ago, Doug B said:
4 hours ago, Mr. Ham said:

Models show that there should be cases we’re not seeing ...

A model is only as good as the inputs.

That explains Paulina Porizkova's career decline.

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9 minutes ago, Henry Ford said:

This may have already been discussed - scientists are reporting that the virus may be able to live in water droplets on door handles/etc for up to nine days outside the human body?  That seems bad.

Yeah,  I saw in Newsweek where they are saying they think it can be transmitted by pipes.  They think people got it in an apartment building by the pipes.

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5 minutes ago, TheIronSheik said:

Yeah,  I saw in Newsweek where they are saying they think it can be transmitted by pipes.  They think people got it in an apartment building by the pipes.

Yet another reason I'm glad I'm a homeowner.

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21 minutes ago, [scooter] said:

That explains Paulina Porizkova's career decline.

:golfclap:

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32 minutes ago, [scooter] said:

That explains Paulina Porizkova's career decline.

Too soon?

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38 minutes ago, TheIronSheik said:

Yeah,  I saw in Newsweek where they are saying they think it can be transmitted by pipes.  They think people got it in an apartment building by the pipes.

I'm not following this.  

Are we its in the river stage?

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1 minute ago, culdeus said:

I'm not following this.  

Are we its in the river stage?

 

Quote

During a press conference Tuesday, officials from Hong Kong's Center for Health Protection said the two infected residents were separated by 10 floors and the decision to partially evacuate the public housing estate in the city's Tsing Yi area was made after the discovery of an unsealed pipe in the bathroom of the lower apartment, raising fears about how the newly identified virus may have spread between the two units.

 

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57 minutes ago, Henry Ford said:

This may have already been discussed - scientists are reporting that the virus may be able to live in water droplets on door handles/etc for up to nine days outside the human body?  That seems bad.

That is worse then Measles if true, which is basically the most contagious virus out there.  

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1 hour ago, Henry Ford said:

This may have already been discussed - scientists are reporting that the virus may be able to live in water droplets on door handles/etc for up to nine days outside the human body?  That seems bad.


Scientists not quite reporting this -- the current Wuhan coronavirus was not included in the study:

Quote

 

A new analysis looking at data from different types of coronavirus has shown that many strains can live on surfaces such as glass, plastic or metal, for up to nine days.

The work published yesterday in The Journal of Hospital Infection looked at 22 historical studies on different types of coronavirus, such as Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) coronaviruses.

 


Link to the study's data (scroll down to Results). I note that the length of time the tested viruses are viable seems to correlate with the overall viral load (viral titer) of their sample. Also, the viruses seem to last much longer in conditions colder than room temperature (~22.5 C / 72 F). So my question would be how well their testing simulates the kinds of "samples" infected people leave on surfaces in real-life conditions by coughing, touching surfaces, etc.?

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1 hour ago, TheIronSheik said:

Yeah,  I saw in Newsweek where they are saying they think it can be transmitted by pipes.  They think people got it in an apartment building by the pipes.

Not quite this either. Generally, the more startling the news, the less likely it is to stand up to close inspection.

Whoever said it was spread via pipes is not even quoted in the article. Newsweek is going with "... stoking fears [it] could be spread through pipes." That's not even a source.

Meanwhile, later in the article:

Quote

 

The residents were relocated as a precautionary measure, AFP reported officials saying. Wong Ka-hing of the Centre for Health Protection told journalists: "We are not sure what was the exact route of transmission.

"It could still be through the usual method of droplets or contact."

 

 

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39 minutes ago, Henry Ford said:

 

 

I wonder if the pipe they're referring to is the sewer vent (fart pipe) or an actual water line. Since the virus can transmit via fecal matter, perhaps the fantastic Chinese build quality on the vent pipes (not well sealed probably) lets the gas escape into apartments. 

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I went on Amazon and bought a 25 pound bucket of pinto beans, a 25 pound bucket of rice, a 50 gallon rainwater collection barrel that I could fill with a hose. Based on a previous recommendation, bought the 80 gallon BOB that could be placed in the tub, and a propane cooking stove. I’ll buy a propane tank next time I’m near Home Depot. Have about 25 pounds of flour I use to make pasta with, and enough canned veggies and other pantry items that my family wouldn’t have to leave the house if necessary for at least 6-8 weeks if properly rationed, even if utilities were out.

I’m not going to go more overboard than that. Cost about $200 for all of the stuff I just bought, and if it proves to be unnecessary, I can water the lawn with the water, use the beans and rice over time, and have a portable stove (can also use butane) for camping. 

Feel better that family could hunker down in the unlikely event, and that I don’t have to go panic buying anything even if things become evidently serious. 

Couple weeks ago, I also dropped $170 stocking up on general medical supplies: Masks, warm mister, decongestants, and vapor products to keep lungs clear. 

Edit: I also live in Texas, and spring isn’t too far off. When at Home Depot, I’ll also invest in seeds. Have a nice garden in the backyard that currently isn’t planted. Would be a good idea to change that this season. Will grow lots of greenbeans and peas and other veggies that could go well with rice and beans.

Edited by Mr. Ham

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28 minutes ago, Redwes25 said:

That is worse then Measles if true, which is basically the most contagious virus out there.  

In the study cited (see my post above), there were two coronaviruses that can last longer than nine days on steel at cool to cold temperatures ... in laboratory conditions.

Keep in mind that the COVID Wuhan virus was not tested in this study.

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1 minute ago, Doug B said:

In the study cited (see my post above), there were two coronaviruses that can last longer than nine days on steel at cool to cold temperatures ... in laboratory conditions.

Keep in mind that the COVID Wuhan virus was not tested in this study.

True, however the infection rate has been significantly higher than general coronaviruses, correct?  Doesn't that indicate a likely higher out-of-body lifespan?

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14 minutes ago, Henry Ford said:

True, however the infection rate has been significantly higher than general coronaviruses, correct?  Doesn't that indicate a likely higher out-of-body lifespan?

Not yet known for sure. The incubation time is not yet locked down.

For a preliminary infection rate, see this article and scroll down to "How contagious is the coronavirus?" to see a comparison of rates between the Wuhan virus (1 carrier infects an average of 3 people) vs. influenza (1 to 4) and mumps (1 to 7).

EDIT: More info on infection rates from 1/30/2020, putting the Wuhan virus at about 1 to 2.2. I am having trouble finding right-now information on infection rate.

Edited by Doug B

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8 minutes ago, Doug B said:

Not yet known for sure. The incubation time is not yet locked down.

For a preliminary infection rate, see this article and scroll down to "How contagious is the coronavirus?" to see a comparison of rates between the Wuhan virus (1 carrier infects an average of 3 people) vs. influenza (1 to 4) and mumps (1 to 7).

EDIT: More info on infection rates from 1/30/2020, putting the Wuhan virus at about 1 to 2.2. I am having trouble finding right-now information on infection rate.

As always, "yes, but..." those infection rates assume that the numbers we're getting from China are correct, don't they?

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1 minute ago, Henry Ford said:

As always, "yes, but..." those infection rates assume that the numbers we're getting from China are correct, don't they?

That ventures into the realm of speculation.

I do happen to believe the number of infected is significantly higher than reported because a strong majority of the infected never get much in the way of symptoms. I do not believe that China is hiding a huge microbiological disaster.

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35 minutes ago, Mr. Ham said:

I went on Amazon and bought a 25 pound bucket of pinto beans, a 25 pound bucket of rice, a 50 gallon rainwater collection barrel that I could fill with a hose. Based on a previous recommendation, bought the 80 gallon BOB that could be placed in the tub, and a propane cooking stove. I’ll buy a propane tank next time I’m near Home Depot. Have about 25 pounds of flour I use to make pasta with, and enough canned veggies and other pantry items that my family wouldn’t have to leave the house if necessary for at least 6-8 weeks if properly rationed, even if utilities were out.

I’m not going to go more overboard than that. Cost about $200 for all of the stuff I just bought, and if it proves to be unnecessary, I can water the lawn with the water, use the beans and rice over time, and have a portable stove (can also use butane) for camping. 

Feel better that family could hunker down in the unlikely event, and that I don’t have to go panic buying anything even if things become evidently serious. 

Couple weeks ago, I also dropped $170 stocking up on general medical supplies: Masks, warm mister, decongestants, and vapor products to keep lungs clear. 

Edit: I also live in Texas, and spring isn’t too far off. When at Home Depot, I’ll also invest in seeds. Have a nice garden in the backyard that currently isn’t planted. Would be a good idea to change that this season. Will grow lots of greenbeans and peas and other veggies that could go well with rice and beans.

Here, do something truly self sustaining with your prepping paranoia.

Wicking tub

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4 minutes ago, Doug B said:

That ventures into the realm of speculation.

I do happen to believe the number of infected is significantly higher than reported because a strong majority of the infected never get much in the way of symptoms. I do not believe that China is hiding a huge microbiological disaster.

There's no real question China massively under-reported SARS.  And the actual numbers on SARS were less than we currently have from China on this virus.

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47 minutes ago, Doug B said:

Generally, the more startling the news, the less likely it is to stand up to close inspection.

There is some wild stuff being posted so yea, I'd caution & verify most everything you read out there.

45 minutes ago, Mr. Ham said:

I went on Amazon and bought a 25 pound bucket of pinto beans, a 25 pound bucket of rice, a 50 gallon rainwater collection barrel that I could fill with a hose. Based on a previous recommendation, bought the 80 gallon BOB that could be placed in the tub, and a propane cooking stove. I’ll buy a propane tank next time I’m near Home Depot. Have about 25 pounds of flour I use to make pasta with, and enough canned veggies and other pantry items that my family wouldn’t have to leave the house if necessary for at least 6-8 weeks if properly rationed, even if utilities were out.

I’m not going to go more overboard than that. Cost about $200 for all of the stuff I just bought, and if it proves to be unnecessary, I can water the lawn with the water, use the beans and rice over time, and have a portable stove (can also use butane) for camping. 

Feel better that family could hunker down in the unlikely event, and that I don’t have to go panic buying anything even if things become evidently serious. 

Couple weeks ago, I also dropped $170 stocking up on general medical supplies: Masks, warm mister, decongestants, and vapor products to keep lungs clear. 

Edit: I also live in Texas, and spring isn’t too far off. When at Home Depot, I’ll also invest in seeds. Have a nice garden in the backyard that currently isn’t planted. Would be a good idea to change that this season. Will grow lots of greenbeans and peas and other veggies that could go well with rice and beans.

:oldunsure: I think you've hopped over the line but if you sleep better :thumbup:

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17 minutes ago, Henry Ford said:

There's no real question China massively under-reported SARS.  And the actual numbers on SARS were less than we currently have from China on this virus.

You're right about the SARS under-reporting, and some of it was intentional. However, that ordered under-counting was uncovered early on and rectified fairly quickly (as these things go).

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1 hour ago, Mr. Ham said:

I went on Amazon and bought a 25 pound bucket of pinto beans, a 25 pound bucket of rice, a 50 gallon rainwater collection barrel that I could fill with a hose. Based on a previous recommendation, bought the 80 gallon BOB that could be placed in the tub, and a propane cooking stove. I’ll buy a propane tank next time I’m near Home Depot. Have about 25 pounds of flour I use to make pasta with, and enough canned veggies and other pantry items that my family wouldn’t have to leave the house if necessary for at least 6-8 weeks if properly rationed, even if utilities were out.

I’m not going to go more overboard than that. Cost about $200 for all of the stuff I just bought, and if it proves to be unnecessary, I can water the lawn with the water, use the beans and rice over time, and have a portable stove (can also use butane) for camping. 

Feel better that family could hunker down in the unlikely event, and that I don’t have to go panic buying anything even if things become evidently serious. 

Couple weeks ago, I also dropped $170 stocking up on general medical supplies: Masks, warm mister, decongestants, and vapor products to keep lungs clear. 

Edit: I also live in Texas, and spring isn’t too far off. When at Home Depot, I’ll also invest in seeds. Have a nice garden in the backyard that currently isn’t planted. Would be a good idea to change that this season. Will grow lots of greenbeans and peas and other veggies that could go well with rice and beans.

What you doing about beer?

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22 minutes ago, beer 30 said:

There is some wild stuff being posted so yea, I'd caution & verify most everything you read out there.

:oldunsure: I think you've hopped over the line but if you sleep better :thumbup:

It really will. My wife thinks I’m :loco:, as I’m sure many of you do. My argument to her was succinct:

  • Yes, it’s unlikely this will be the calamity that changes life as we know it
  • But I don’t like the uncertainty and way things are trending 
  • The fear I’m mitigating is that there would be a sudden run on supplies and shortages 
  • This would imply that government and private businesses determined it was prudent to quarantine at home, which is a major assumption and unprecedented...
  • Expect it isn’t. The most populace country in world history, with the second largest economy is doing that exactly as we speak, and we have no way to know that what is happening there won’t happen here within a month’s time

She reluctantly went along with it with minor eye rolling. She reminded me that we still have freeze dried food I bought some years ago. If I were to fully plant my garden on top our current supplies, I think we could go a season if need be without leaving the homestead. So, yes, believe it or not, it will make me sleep better.

Edited by Mr. Ham
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2 minutes ago, culdeus said:

What you doing about beer?

Googling how to plant peyote. 

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26 minutes ago, Mr. Ham said:

Googling how to plant peyote. 

Good idea, start trippin' balls...  You wont feel the pain when guys that have bigger guns and more ammo than you decide they like your little plantation.

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I just got back from Disney World, and honestly I’m kind of rooting for COVID-19 to reach global pandemic levels. 

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5 minutes ago, Buttonhook said:

guys that have bigger guns and more ammo than you

:no:

Edited by Mr. Ham

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8 minutes ago, Buttonhook said:

Good idea, start trippin' balls...  You wont feel the pain when guys that have bigger guns and more ammo than you decide they like your little plantation.

Not quite. I live in a school zone where guns are illegal. 

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1 hour ago, Mr. Ham said:

I went on Amazon and bought a 25 pound bucket of pinto beans, a 25 pound bucket of rice, a 50 gallon rainwater collection barrel that I could fill with a hose. Based on a previous recommendation, bought the 80 gallon BOB that could be placed in the tub, and a propane cooking stove. I’ll buy a propane tank next time I’m near Home Depot. Have about 25 pounds of flour I use to make pasta with, and enough canned veggies and other pantry items that my family wouldn’t have to leave the house if necessary for at least 6-8 weeks if properly rationed, even if utilities were out.

I’m not going to go more overboard than that. Cost about $200 for all of the stuff I just bought, and if it proves to be unnecessary, I can water the lawn with the water, use the beans and rice over time, and have a portable stove (can also use butane) for camping. 

Feel better that family could hunker down in the unlikely event, and that I don’t have to go panic buying anything even if things become evidently serious. 

Couple weeks ago, I also dropped $170 stocking up on general medical supplies: Masks, warm mister, decongestants, and vapor products to keep lungs clear. 

Edit: I also live in Texas, and spring isn’t too far off. When at Home Depot, I’ll also invest in seeds. Have a nice garden in the backyard that currently isn’t planted. Would be a good idea to change that this season. Will grow lots of greenbeans and peas and other veggies that could go well with rice and beans.

If there is a total break down of society where no heat, water or electricity exists I am just going to kiss my ### goodbye.  I could probably weather two weeks on food in my home which is probably better then most people where I live but would freeze death given it is February and cold in the NE.   

Edited by Redwes25
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Probably have a couple weeks of food in the house as we speak. Have about a cord of firewood already split, a huge oak tree, and a saw.

Always have beer on hand and backup whiskey in the house. Have a couple of cases of bottled water already and I have buckets to catch rain if necessary. Also could fill my tub as well.

Have no solution for my kids screen time though. That's what might kill us. 

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26 minutes ago, ChiefD said:

Probably have a couple weeks of food in the house as we speak. Have about a cord of firewood already split, a huge oak tree, and a saw.

Always have beer on hand and backup whiskey in the house. Have a couple of cases of bottled water already and I have buckets to catch rain if necessary. Also could fill my tub as well.

Have no solution for my kids screen time though. That's what might kill us. 

Keeping kids entertained would 100% overshadow all other survival challenges.

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I mentioned a couple of times that I work for a major Fortune 50 tech company. We got internal guidance not to attend meetings of over 1k, and any meeting over 100 has special protocols and need on premise medical staff.

Have been wondering if we will go ahead with our major presence at Mobile World Congress, from 24-27 in Barcelona. Biggest mobile tech conference.

We have not pulled out, but Facebook, Intel, AT&T, Ericcson, and others have. This is the equivalent of electronics manufacturers pulling out of Consumer Electronics Show, which is a centerpiece of their marketing strategies and of many buyer’s strategies. Same with MWC and mobile. This is where big announcements are made around mobile devices, partnerships and all things surrounding. Planning takes place for at least 6 months prior.

Times I’ve been there, Ericsson has had entire pavilions where they must have dropped $10m alone. There are typically into the thousands of vendors present.

Was just texting with my old boss, who leads solutions for our company’s multi-billion Telecom business. I asked if she thought we’d pull out. She said everyone she knows, including herself, have cancelled and that our clients have mostly indicated they aren’t going. 

If you’ve been to a show of this scope, which has every hall of major convention centers packed with elaborate booths, with every good restaurant and hotel booked 3 months in advance, it’s mind bottling to think of the logistics and economic ramifications of boarding that up near the last minute. 

 

Edited by Mr. Ham

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They're beginning to blame the pangolins now.

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I have a gun and I’m hoping my neighbors spent money on food and not weapons. Not living in Texas has helped my odds. 

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2 hours ago, Mr. Ham said:

My wife thinks I’m :loco:

You don’t say. 

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On 2/10/2020 at 2:06 PM, [icon] said:

China changing the definition of "Confirmed" as a rare blatant/public attempt to cook the books. 

https://twitter.com/lwcalex/status/1226840055869632512?s=20

Now if you test positive but aren't symptomatic, you're no longer "confirmed" :lol:  This obviously further obfuscates any chance at identifying the true scope of this outbreak. 
 

Check out the big brain on Brad! 

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1 hour ago, Capella said:

Some of y’all need to take a deep breath. Wow. 

Yeah, I feel like I missed a few updates. 

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39 minutes ago, Otis said:

You don’t say. 

He is not the one who wanted to go to Singapore.

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