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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (18 Viewers)

culdeus said:
See if you can find a mask company based in south america somewhere.
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Heard an interview on NPR with a guy that makes masks in the US.  He says he's never exported before since he can't compete with the prices of Asian manufacturers.  He exported over a million masks last month.  

 
TheIronSheik said:
What are they spraying?  Is there something out there that kills this?  
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From what I've read, they are spraying diluted bleach and water.   Same thing that is being sprayed out of the trucks outside.

They've also started spraying Decon Seven, which is a disinfectant manufactured in the US.

 
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-fish- said:
From what I've read, they are spraying diluted bleach and water.   Same thing that is being sprayed out of the trucks outside.

They've also started spraying Decon Seven, which is a disinfectant manufactured in the US.
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Does any of that actually kill it?  Or does it just kill the person and then the death doesn't count towards the virus totals?

 
I have been thinking some folks in here are way over-reacting, but this guy doesn't seem to think so.  He predicts everyone in US has it by July 4th weekend.  I know this is just more ammo for Mr. Ham and whoever else, but can someone smarter than me please dig into this and tell me he's full of poop?  I don't understand it enough to be able to dismiss it based on math/science.

 
facook said:
I have been thinking some folks in here are way over-reacting, but this guy doesn't seem to think so.  He predicts everyone in US has it by July 4th weekend.  I know this is just more ammo for Mr. Ham and whoever else, but can someone smarter than me please dig into this and tell me he's full of poop?  I don't understand it enough to be able to dismiss it based on math/science.
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I don’t trust any predictions right now, no matter how smart the people giving them are, because I don’t believe there is enough solid data to make those predictions. 
 

We just don’t have solid data on this yet, because China’s numbers can’t be trusted. Until that happens, who knows what the truth is.

 
[icon] said:
Unless it's a mandated self-quarantine with a 24hr curfew in place, like what tens of millions of Chinese are living under right now. 

Forgive me if I don't jump at the chance to be dependent on the government to efficiently delivery my food and water :lol:  
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I don't think a 24 hour curfew would work here.  By all means, prep away.  I am not saying don't do that, I'm saying that everyone should be prepping at least a little bit.  You don't want to be the guy going to the store only to find single-ply TP available for your wife and kids...I'd rather be the guy with a few boxes of the Kleenex infused with Vicks.

 
facook said:
I have been thinking some folks in here are way over-reacting, but this guy doesn't seem to think so.  He predicts everyone in US has it by July 4th weekend.  I know this is just more ammo for Mr. Ham and whoever else, but can someone smarter than me please dig into this and tell me he's full of poop?  I don't understand it enough to be able to dismiss it based on math/science.
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He's assuming a fixed virus burnout rate, and while someone is out there reporting it won't burnout by the summer I find that somewhat hard to believe.

 
facook said:
I have been thinking some folks in here are way over-reacting, but this guy doesn't seem to think so.  He predicts everyone in US has it by July 4th weekend.  I know this is just more ammo for Mr. Ham and whoever else, but can someone smarter than me please dig into this and tell me he's full of poop?  I don't understand it enough to be able to dismiss it based on math/science.
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Its a guy named Andy who named his business Andology.  That tells me almost everything I need to know.  Well guess what, Scoresology says we're all going to be just fine.  

… I think.

 
facook said:
I have been thinking some folks in here are way over-reacting, but this guy doesn't seem to think so.  He predicts everyone in US has it by July 4th weekend.  I know this is just more ammo for Mr. Ham and whoever else, but can someone smarter than me please dig into this and tell me he's full of poop?  I don't understand it enough to be able to dismiss it based on math/science.
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(not aimed at facook)

Don't even have to look at his site. All panic and all hypebole from people who "really have the answers!", every time, is B.S.

Any rando can put up a web site like that. If he has the goods on this, contact authorities, get it to the CDC and make a case. It's not up to the world at large to disprove your B.S., Andy.

Without even looking at his site, I'll stand this.

 
TheIronSheik said:
Does any of that actually kill it?  Or does it just kill the person and then the death doesn't count towards the virus totals?
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Diluted bleach is great for disinfecting hard surfaces. I highly doubt spraying it into the air does anything, though.

Decon7 is also made for surface disinfection, not disinfecting the air.

 
The coronavirus epidemic could spread to about two-thirds of the world’s population if it cannot be controlled, according to Hong Kong’s leading public health epidemiologist.

His warning came after the head of the World Health Organization (WHO) said recent cases of coronavirus patients who had never visited China could be the “tip of the iceberg”.

Prof Gabriel Leung, the chair of public health medicine at Hong Kong University, said the overriding question was to figure out the size and shape of the iceberg. Most experts thought that each person infected would go on to transmit the virus to about 2.5 other people. That gave an “attack rate” of 60-80%.

“Sixty per cent of the world’s population is an awfully big number,” Leung told the Guardian in London, en route to an expert meeting at the WHO in Geneva on Tuesday.
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https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/11/coronavirus-expert-warns-infection-could-reach-60-of-worlds-population

The number of confirmed cases of the Wuhan coronavirus have continued to surge inside China, sickening tens of thousands, with a death toll of more than 1,000. But outside the Asian giant the numbers remain a fraction of that, a trend Harvard’s Marc Lipsitch views with suspicion. Lipsitch thinks it is just a matter of time before the virus spreads widely internationally, which means nations so far only lightly hit should prepare for its eventual arrival in force and what may seem like the worst flu season in modern times. Lipsitch, professor of epidemiology at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health and head of the School’s Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics, talked to the Gazette about recent developments in the outbreak and provided a look ahead.
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https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2020/02/harvard-expert-says-coronavirus-likely-just-gathering-steam/

These are pretty legit sources.   

 
facook said:
I have been thinking some folks in here are way over-reacting, but this guy doesn't seem to think so.  He predicts everyone in US has it by July 4th weekend.  I know this is just more ammo for Mr. Ham and whoever else, but can someone smarter than me please dig into this and tell me he's full of poop?  I don't understand it enough to be able to dismiss it based on math/science.
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Doesn’t FLu season go only through March or April? How would this thing be here in July. 

 
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So the whitehouse just tweeted there are another 150k cases that aren't reported but considered confirmed, or was this leaked. Often times it's hard to know.

 
culdeus said:
So the whitehouse just tweeted there are another 150k cases that aren't reported but considered confirmed, or was this leaked. Often times it's hard to know.
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Not sure if true or not. But I've been waiting for the other shoe to drop since last night. My theory is that WHO made China update the numbers for Wuhan, but held back the rest of province updates. The theory goes on thinking that they held those numbers back since they were massively under reported from the word go. That type of number from whitehouse would help explain some of the Chinese Gov't recent actions.

I am hoping I'm full of it.

 
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There are some tremendous deals on cruises.  There are 7 day cruises for as little as $123.  A 20 day cruise from Singapore to Dubai for $461.  You might die but you'll have memories that last a lifetime however short that is.  The following site is the place where all of the cruise ships post their best prices.  You need to sign in to see the list but I've always just typed in joe@hotmail dot com and it lets me in.

 https://www.vacationstogo.com/ticker.cfm?t=y

 
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Don Hutson said:
There are some tremendous deals on cruises.  There are 7 day cruises for as little as $123.  A 20 day cruise from Singapore to Dubai for $461.  You might die but you'll have memories that last a lifetime.  The following site is the place where all of the cruise ships post their best prices.  You need to sign in to see the list but I've always just typed in joe@hotmail dot com and it lets me in.

 https://www.vacationstogo.com/ticker.cfm?t=y
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Whoa. That site Is incredible. 
 

We are planning a family 10 day southern Caribbean on Celebrity in November and that site could cut costs by over half :eek:  

 
[icon] said:
Whoa. That site Is incredible. 
 

We are planning a family 10 day southern Caribbean on Celebrity in November and that site could cut costs by over half :eek:  
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I've been going to the site for over 20 years.  My guess is that they existed before the World Wide Web existed.  Since they sell cruises at the lowest price, they probably give minimal/poor customer service.  

 
Don Hutson said:
I've been going to the site for over 20 years.  My guess is that they existed before the World Wide Web existed.  Since they sell cruises at the lowest price, they probably give minimal/poor customer service.  
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And also probably their service isn’t great in that In exchange for your money they’re putting you on a large metal water prison for a week with thousands of dirty strangers.

 
culdeus said:
You would have expected to see more news out of India if things were in the weeds there. 
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The Tibetan Plateau, Hindu Kush mountains, and the Himalayas comprise a formidable physical barrier to human crossings. Not to mention hundreds of miles of sparsely-populated area that would naturally slow or halt disease spread.

That makes me wonder if pre-modern plagues and diseases ever really passed between India and China? Over land, anyway?

EDIT:

The famous Black Death in the 1300s (bubonic plague) started in China and swept westwards across Eurasia to the Atlantic Ocean. North Africa, the eastern Mediterranean coast, and the Arabian Peninsula were also affected. But that particular plague never made it to India.

Another, lesser bubonic plague epidemic started in the mid-1800s in China. By the 1890s, British ships sailing out of Hong Kong spread this plague to India. Over 22 million people in British India succumbed to the plague by 1930.

 
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Doug B said:
The famous Black Death in the 1300s (bubonic plague) started in China and swept westwards across Eurasia to the Atlantic Ocean. North Africa, the eastern Mediterranean coast, and the Arabian Peninsula were also affected. But that particular plague never made it to India.

Another, lesser bubonic plague epidemic started in the mid-1800s in China. By the 1890s, British ships sailing out of Hong Kong spread this plague to India. Over 22 million people in British India succumbed to the plague by 1930.
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Not to take away from the mortality of plague because lets be honest, it's HOF level and who am I to judge but...but, I don't think the areoplane was around in the 1300's and probably in very limited use in that part of the world in late 1800's.

I get what you're saying and you make a valid point. I think we have the ability to move larger quantities of people, from all over the world much easier today than back in 'aught 9 thus making the transmission a little easier than in the day of the plague.

 
Points granted, beer30. I was just making a point that the shared China/India/Nepal border area, despite its size, is not itself hospitable to the spread of pathogens.

Mongolia has a very long land border with China -- but again, there are vast sparsely populated areas between Wuhan and Ulaanbaatar (Mongolia's capital).

 
beer 30 said:
Not to take away from the mortality of plague because lets be honest, it's HOF level and who am I to judge but...but, I don't think the areoplane was around in the 1300's and probably in very limited use in that part of the world in late 1800's.

I get what you're saying and you make a valid point. I think we have the ability to move larger quantities of people, from all over the world much easier today than back in 'aught 9 thus making the transmission a little easier than in the day of the plague.
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I've seen people say that SARS spread less because the timeframe involved people were only travelling to areas of China which were not affected.  Today is quite different.  

 
There's been some curiosity in this thread about the upcoming Tokyo Marathon. Here is a little news:

China residents asked to skip Tokyo Marathon

Organizers of the Tokyo Marathon are asking registered runners residing in China to refrain from joining in this year's event due to the outbreak of the new coronavirus.

A total of around 38,000 runners are expected to participate in the full marathon or in the 10-kilometer race on March 1. About 1,800 of them are living in China.
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Doug B said:
The famous Black Death in the 1300s (bubonic plague) started in China and swept westwards across Eurasia to the Atlantic Ocean. North Africa, the eastern Mediterranean coast, and the Arabian Peninsula were also affected. But that particular plague never made it to India.
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Origins of the Black Death have been studied and debated for centuries, but the general belief these days is that it originated in central Asia (near Kyrgyzstan). And India was certainly infected, but sources differ as to whether they got it from central Asia, from China, or from European merchants many years after it had spread.

 
Doug B said:
The Tibetan Plateau, Hindu Kush mountains, and the Himalayas comprise a formidable physical barrier to human crossings. Not to mention hundreds of miles of sparsely-populated area that would naturally slow or halt disease spread.

That makes me wonder if pre-modern plagues and diseases ever really passed between India and China? Over land, anyway?

EDIT:

The famous Black Death in the 1300s (bubonic plague) started in China and swept westwards across Eurasia to the Atlantic Ocean. North Africa, the eastern Mediterranean coast, and the Arabian Peninsula were also affected. But that particular plague never made it to India.

Another, lesser bubonic plague epidemic started in the mid-1800s in China. By the 1890s, British ships sailing out of Hong Kong spread this plague to India. Over 22 million people in British India succumbed to the plague by 1930.
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Once again....China.
 

China, China, China. All crap comes from China. Time to pull it together, guys.

Signed,

The rest of the world 

 
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Hugh Jass said:
Once again....China.
 

China, China, China. All crap comes from China. Time to pull it together, guys.

Signed,

The rest of the world 
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I have a completely made up theory that this is somehow related to the effects pet dogs have on the immune system. If not for dogs these things would spring up everywhere. 

 
WHO providing more confidence that this virus is less hard on kids in their daily.   So much so that Vietnam is closing all schools because kids can be a carrier and not show anything more than a sniffle.  

 
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