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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (8 Viewers)

Just attended a conference which included a presentation on COVID-19. I haven’t read all posts in this thread, but you guys have done a pretty good job hitting the salient points of the outbreak, with a sprinkling of hysteria/conspiracy theories for good measure. Key points from my vantage:

It’s too early to draw firm conclusions regarding the extent of the epidemic and death rate, but the Hopkins’ site  is one of the best for updated numbers. 

The R0 number is probably between 1.4 and 2.5, worse than seasonal flu, but probably not 3+ as has been reported by some sources. Asymptomatic transmission makes these estimates problematic, as do “super spreaders” who more readily pass on their bug than average.

I like the NY Times graphic summarizing COVID-19’s infectivity versus mortality in comparison to other illnesses.

Pangolins are the most likely intermediate host. As an aside, there was a great PBS show on the plight of these animals, which are the most heavily trafficked species in the world. The Chinese and others believe their scales have medicinal properties, and their meat is consumed as well.

It appears to be spread by droplet transmission, consistent with other coronaviruses. But transmission has been documented in healthcare workers despite more aggressive isolation measures. 

All treatments are experimental, with no firm data on any of the antivirals. A Phase I vaccine trial is on track to start in the next couple months.

The IDSA website is a good source for accurate info and links to credible resources outside the Twittersphere and Reddit.

 
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Numbers in Singapore are concerning. Doubled in last couple days. I’ll note that the virus is not supposed to do well in humid, hot conditions. It averages in the mid to high 80s with high humidity there. 

Singapore seems to be taking an entirely transparent approach to data about patients. They may be to this outbreak what Spain was in 1918. They will give us a preview of how it spreads, and what cases like in a first world medical system. 
They seem to have a couple of high volume clusters

There are now 72 cases of Covid-19 infections in Singapore, with five new cases confirmed on Saturday.

Three of the new cases are linked to the cluster at the Grace Assembly of God church, which means two clusters are linked to places of worship, prompting churches here to step up precautionary measures or even cancel church services.

One of the other cases is linked to the cluster at the Seletar Aerospace Heights construction site. The fifth is a non-medical contact of case 59, a 61-year-old doctor.

The Ministry of Health said none of the new cases have any recent travel history to China.

Meanwhile, one more patient, a 32-year-old woman who is case 24, has been discharged. In all, 18 have fully recovered a and have been discharged from hospital.

Of the 54 confirmed cases who are still in hospital, most are stable or improving. Six are in the intensive care unit.

With 16 confirmed cases, Grace Assembly of God has the largest cluster here now. Services and activities at both its branches have been suspended for two weeks.

Catholic masses for the public have also been suspended indefinitely, since Saturday.

 
Makes sense. Respiratory complications are caused by uptake or same cells in lungs as HIV (ACE2.) ACE2 inhibitors bind to the receptors in these cells, preventing the corona part of the virus from connecting and being absorbed.
It really makes no sense at all. Chet’s drug is a monoclonal antibody targeting the chemokine coreceptor CCR5. That receptor is important in the binding of some HIV strains, but not any flavor of Coronavirus TMK. CCR5 is also found in certain types of cancer, and has a role in general inflammatory responses. So at best, Chet’s Coronavirus drug may lessen inflammation nonspecifically. I’d wager Remdesivir or protease inhibitors used for HIV will be more effective, as at least the mechanism of action is biologically plausible. But I ain’t holding my breath on any of them, as the virus mutates rapidly - similar to HIV, which requires multiple drugs simultaneously to control.

Interestingly enough, ACE inhibitors are used as a treatment for hypertension. I wonder if people taking those drugs have decreased risk of COVID-19, as they might out compete with the virus for binding sites?

ETA I see where people are making the connection. There is a single pre-print, non-peer-reviewed paper discussing structural homology between COVID-19 binding sites and gp 120, the HIV protein which binds CCR5. If true, this would be a target for Chet’s drug. But the paper has been withdrawn, though not before it caused quite a stir amongst conspiracy theorists that the virus was bioengineered. Probably the same folks who think HIV was created to kill gays, drug users and minorities. 🤪

 
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Currently at a FL airport with not many Asians around. No sight of face masks anywhere. The mood here is upbeat.

eoMMan for FFA news. In your corner. 

 
Costco has chicken thighs for .99 cents a pound so if you are into disaster prepping, or like me, plan to smoke delicious chicken thighs all summer over 225 heat, head to your nearest Costco. I bought 30 pounds and wish I had another deep freezer. 

 
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.But I ain’t holding my breath on any of them, as the virus mutates rapidly - similar to HIV, which requires multiple drugs simultaneously to control.
I realize the RNA strand (?) type virus is known to mutate rapidly, but I thought I read somewhere this virus had rare a type of "spell check" to it during replication that inhibited mutation? 

 
I realize the RNA strand (?) type virus is known to mutate rapidly, but I thought I read somewhere this virus had rare a type of "spell check" to it during replication that inhibited mutation? 
Unless COVID-19 evolved a proof-reading mechanism different from other coronaviruses, it mutates frequently and rapidly. I don’t pretend to know everything about COVID-19 virology, but that seems extremely unlikely.

 
The US exports chicken and China imports chicken. Chinese chicken exports to the US are fairly unlikely
i've been making some effort to avoid food from China for awhile.  several weeks ago i was surprised to see some frozen fish at Aldi that said wild caught: USA  processed: China

 
This article is pretty solid aside from a couple major flaws that reveal the writers agenda and lack of knowledge on the topic. 
 

The airplane analogy is flawed. "Two crashes happen soon, so our brain thinks it's riskier when our conscious mind knows it's not". In actuality two quick crashes can and do sometimes indicate deviation from the norm indicating higher risk... case in point Boeing's 737 Max issue. 

"People focus on the 2% mortality and don't think of the 98% of people who survive and may have had mild cases". Except something like 15-20% of people are getting hospitalized and nearly double digits are considered serious or critical condition. This article seems to imply that 2% die and for the rest of people it's no big deal. That's not true. 

I do agree with the core sentiment that this shouldn't be viewed as some Ebola-esque death sentence that has you sneeze then suddenly die like in the movies. Even if you get it (and odds are several people in here will), you're probably going to be okay, maybe need to be hospitalized, and in somewhat rare cases it might kill you. 

 
Unless COVID-19 evolved a proof-reading mechanism different from other coronaviruses, it mutates frequently and rapidly. I don’t pretend to know everything about COVID-19 virology, but that seems extremely unlikely.
I don't pretend to know everything but I did read something that indicated it had exactly that, a rare proof-reading mechanism. This was at least a week back so it may have been fake news... but it was from a fairly reputable source. 

 
Costco has chicken thighs for .99 cents a pound so if you are into disaster prepping, or like me, plan to smoke delicious chicken thighs all summer over 225 heat, head to your nearest Costco. I bought 30 pounds and wish I had another deep freezer. 
Who has 30 whole dollars to spend on chicken?!!! 

(I ####### love smoked chicken thighs, thanks for the heads up :)  )

 
Who has 30 whole dollars to spend on chicken?!!! 

(I ####### love smoked chicken thighs, thanks for the heads up :)  )
I've smoked whole chicken, never just the thighs. I think I'll add that to my repertoire. Just the drumsticks or the whole thigh?

 
I don't pretend to know everything but I did read something that indicated it had exactly that, a rare proof-reading mechanism. This was at least a week back so it may have been fake news... but it was from a fairly reputable source. 
Can you provide a link?

ETA If accurate, this would be good news for vaccine/treatment prospects.

 
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I've smoked whole chicken, never just the thighs. I think I'll add that to my repertoire. Just the drumsticks or the whole thigh?
Thighs are independent of the drumstick and are, without a doubt, the most tender and flavorful part of the chicken. There is the added bonus that they're also the cheapest. 
 

I LOVE bone in, skin on thighs. Smoke initially then finish over high heat to crisp the skin. So so good. Pull the skin taught and use a toothpick thru skin, under the bone on backside and thru skin on other side to keep them taught/firm.
 

Once cooked pull out the pick and it eats like an extra meaty, extra tasty/tender drumstick. 

 
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"People focus on the 2% mortality and don't think of the 98% of people who survive and may have had mild cases". Except something like 15-20% of people are getting hospitalized and nearly double digits are considered serious or critical condition. This article seems to imply that 2% die and for the rest of people it's no big deal. That's not true. 

I do agree with the core sentiment that this shouldn't be viewed as some Ebola-esque death sentence that has you sneeze then suddenly die like in the movies. Even if you get it (and odds are several people in here will), you're probably going to be okay, maybe need to be hospitalized, and in somewhat rare cases it might kill you. 
Curious because I don’t know, and it may be still to early to tell for sure, but:

Are these severe-illness percentages holding up outside of Hubei province (where Wuhan is)? Outside of China?

I know the mortality rate outside of Hubei has so far been much lower, and even more so outside of China. Just wondering if the same for the percentage of those falling seriously ill.

 
Thighs are independent of the drumstick and are, without a doubt, the most tender and flavorful part of the chicken. There is the added bonus that they're also the cheapest. 
 

I LOVE bone in, skin on thighs. Smoke initially then finish over high heat to crisp the skin. So so good. Pull the skin taught and use a toothpick thru skin, under the bone on backside and thru skin on other side to keep them taught/firm.
 

Once cooked pull out the pick and it eats like an extra meaty, extra tasty/tender drumstick. 
I was thinking of using them in a kebab/gyros style sandwich with the smoking as the initial cooking step before adding spices/marinade and some heaton like a searing surface of a kind. That would have to be deboned thighs, though (I can do that myself, just a bit of work).

 
I know people are condemning wet markets (for good reason), but has this outbreak or others convinced anyone to reduce meat consumption? A lot of food borne illness, even when it involves veggies,  can be traced to the abysmal conditions of industrial livestock production.

 
I was thinking of using them in a kebab/gyros style sandwich with the smoking as the initial cooking step before adding spices/marinade and some heaton like a searing surface of a kind. That would have to be deboned thighs, though (I can do that myself, just a bit of work).
Sounds fantastic. They are sold boneless skinless as well. 

 
I saw it as well. Will be able to dig for it later today. A Google News search for relevant terms should bring up some articles about it.
Great. Strangely enough, my internet is painfully slow, with frequent crashes. Except for this site. Musta caught a virus somewhere. 😱

 
Thighs are independent of the drumstick and are, without a doubt, the most tender and flavorful part of the chicken. There is the added bonus that they're also the cheapest. 
 

I LOVE bone in, skin on thighs. Smoke initially then finish over high heat to crisp the skin. So so good. Pull the skin taught and use a toothpick thru skin, under the bone on backside and thru skin on other side to keep them taught/firm.
 

Once cooked pull out the pick and it eats like an extra meaty, extra tasty/tender drumstick. 
I smoke them and then finish skin down in some butter in the cast iron to crisp up. Mm mmmm good. 

 
After a quick perusal of your posts in this thread, I can’t find anything supporting COVID-19 corrects genetic mutations, but I’m open to info suggesting otherwise.
Like I said It was a while back and something I had read in passing. But since you seem incapable of using Google... 

Not saying these are the specific links I read but it's what comes up with 23 seconds of effort and a rudimentary knowledge of how to use Google: 

Quote
But coronaviruses have proofreading enzymes that make them more stable than other RNA viruses, says Mark Denison, a pediatric infectious disease specialist and coronavirologist at Vanderbilt University in Nashville. “They are certainly capable of change,” he says. “But in general once they’ve established a virus that works well, they stabilize that.” Additional changes are more likely to have no effect or to be detrimental to the virus’s success.

...

There is no indication that this virus is becoming more dangerous, or changing much at all

LINK
:)  

 
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After a quick perusal of your posts in this thread, I can’t find anything supporting COVID-19 corrects genetic mutations, but I’m open to info suggesting otherwise.
My memory of it -- which I want to double-check -- is not that the error-correction mechanism prevents mutation altogether. Rather, any individual mutation is simply made less likely, less chaotic.

...

There was a theory hypothesis put out fairly early on that:

a) the very early December 2019 cases in Wuhan were of a new zoonotic** mutation that was especially virulent but spread poorly due to quick infirmity of the humans infected. Then ...

b) that there was another mutation afterwards (~early January) that throttled back the pathologies, and "lived" to spread more efficeiently.

The theory hypothesis posits that the second, less serious strain is the one still spreading now. Not sure if this has been confirmed or not -- or even if it's something still being studied.

** originating in animals, theorized currently to be bat via pangolin.

 
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Well what's interesting is, I wonder if an offshoot of this will be to see a little more global diversity in manufacturing bases?  To have so much concentrated in China when you have labor pools in Mexico, Central America and even Africa, it might seem a prudent course correction to invest in some alternatives to China for a host of reasons.

 
Like I said It was a while back and something I had read in passing. But since you seem incapable of using Google... 

Not saying these are the specific links I read but it's what comes up with 23 seconds of afford and a rudimentary knowledge of how to use Google: 
I can use google, thanks. As I said, my internet connection is terrible, so searches are painfully slow. Thanks for the info though.

From what you posted, the guy is just saying coronaviruses have proofreading mechanisms, which makes them relatively more stable than other RNA viruses. But they still mutate frequently, which explains our body’s inability to develop complete immunity to them, much like other viruses that cause colds and the flu.

 
Any idea why few children get seriously sick from the virus? 
Not really. I believe the same was true of the 2009 H1N1 (swine flu) pandemic -- my then-three-year-old son caught it and was only mildly sick. Anecdote is not data, of course.

Just musing, no science: I wonder if children tend to have a more efficient inflammation response than adults (e.g. faster healing of wounds, etc.)? Also, I believe (without looking it up to verify) that post-infancy children can withstand higher fevers without permanent effects than adults can.

 
150,000 people die every day globally.   Eventually something is going to introduce us to the grim reaper.

 
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Catching up on some e-mails over the past week, I just learned that a co-worker drove a friend from the airport from Wuhan, China in late December. My boss was out sick with "flu-like symptoms" Wed-Fri.

:scared:

 

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