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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread

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On 2/10/2020 at 2:26 PM, culdeus said:

Some dank stuff on Twitter if you look.  It's so hard to tell what's real and fake not gonna bother posting it.   Just imagining how quick we would go into meltdown if the whole US just said stay inside for three weeks. K bye.  

Netflix, Hulu, Sling and Amazon stocks should go through the roof.

Also food delivery (as if you can trust someone make $6/hr to handle you food safely).

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On 2/10/2020 at 6:27 PM, Penguin said:

05:13: 65 new cases in Japan. They were found on the “Diamond Princess” cruise ship off Yokohama, raising the ship’s total to 135. (Source)

TOKYO: An additional 39 people on board the Diamond Princess cruise ship off the Japan coast have tested positive for the novel coronavirus Covid-2019, Japanese Health Minister Katsunobu Kato said on Wednesday, bringing the total to 174.

"Out of 53 new test results, 39 people were found positive," he told reporters, adding that a quarantine official had also been infected with the virus.

He added that: "At this point, we have confirmed that four people, among those who are hospitalised, are in a serious condition, either on a ventilator or in an intensive care unit."

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1 minute ago, bradyfan said:

TOKYO: An additional 39 people on board the Diamond Princess cruise ship off the Japan coast have tested positive for the novel coronavirus Covid-2019, Japanese Health Minister Katsunobu Kato said on Wednesday, bringing the total to 174.

"Out of 53 new test results, 39 people were found positive," he told reporters, adding that a quarantine official had also been infected with the virus.

He added that: "At this point, we have confirmed that four people, among those who are hospitalised, are in a serious condition, either on a ventilator or in an intensive care unit."

Link

One miner to another, “Hey, my canary stopped singing. Must be tired.”

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22 hours ago, shader said:

Ham, no offense, but this is the definition of conspiracy theory. Look, I can totally get behind China lying. That’s a country that is built on propaganda.  But if all the other countries are lying too...then I mean what’s the point of even tracking numbers.  At some point we have to take some numbers at face value.

Personally my strategy has been to go to https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/

I have no idea what that site is, but they seem to do a great job of keeping stats updated by country.

I’ve been tracking all non-China infections. 277 4 days ago, 394 today. Those are the numbers I’ll be watching.  

2/7 - 277

2/10 - 394

2/11 - 430

 

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16 minutes ago, shader said:

2/7 - 277

2/10 - 394

2/11 - 430

 

Should track boat and not boat tbh.

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41 minutes ago, culdeus said:

Should track boat and not boat tbh.

Yeah the boat plays into this for sure. But in a pandemic I’d assume the biggest explosions are going to happen when it gets to non-locked down areas.

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18 minutes ago, shader said:

Yeah the boat plays into this for sure. But in a pandemic I’d assume the biggest explosions are going to happen when it gets to non-locked down areas.

I mean it's had opportunities off the boat and this hasn't happened like it did on the boat :shrug:

 

edit to acknowledge that for sure wuhan got rekt but once it hit an area that was prepped it has been different.  So far it's ok.  Maybe it stays that way

Edited by culdeus
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Quote

 

https://www.vox.com/2020/2/11/21132732/coronavirus-cruise-ship-quarantine-japan

Could the quarantine lead to more coronavirus infections?

Doctors and health researchers are increasingly skeptical of this quarantine for exactly that reason. “They’ve basically trapped a bunch of people in a large container with [the] virus,” said University of Toronto epidemiology professor David Fisman, over email. “So [I’m] assuming ‘quarantine’ is generating active transmission.”

For the same reason, Michael Mina, another epidemiologist at Harvard University, called the quarantine unethical on Twitter, "The decision to keep the passengers & crew on the ship is no longer ethical and is wholly inappropriate. 10 crew are infected and crew cannot self quarantine, and room together. Clearly this has transmitted among them placing all at unacceptable risk."

Their concern is driven by the details emerging from the ship, which paint an alarming portrait. According to a must-read New York Times report, as of February 10, Japanese officials had only tested 439 of the 3,700 passengers onboard for the coronavirus, citing shortages of testing supplies. This means that at least a fraction of the remaining thousands onboard may have the virus and not know it.

Among those who’ve tested positive recently are 10 crew members. “And according to employees, the infected crew members identified on Sunday had been eating in the mess hall alongside their co-workers,” the Times reports.

Given the risk of further spread among the crew, and to the passengers they’re trying to serve, the quarantine on the Diamond Princess increasingly seems to pose an “unacceptable risk,” as Mina said.

 

 

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Don Hutson, I’m glad you posted that. I’ve been wondering when professional opinion was going to turn on the cruise ship quarantine.

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On 2/10/2020 at 8:51 PM, bradyfan said:

China CDC Situation Report on Feb-10 
31 Provinces & XPCC
  Suspected: 21675 (+3536
  Confirmed: 42638 (+2478
  Severe: 7333 (+849
  Dead: 1016 (+108
  Recovered: 3996 (+716
Hong Kong - Confirmed: 42 (Dead: 1)
Macau - Confirmed: 10 (Recovered: 1)
Taiwan - Confirmed: 18 (Recovered: 1)

China CDC Situation Report on Feb-11 
31 Provinces & XPCC
  Suspected: 16067 (+3342)
  Confirmed: 44653 (+2015)
  Severe: 8204 (+871)
  Dead: 1113 (+97)
  Recovered: 4740 (+744
Hong Kong - Confirmed: 49 (Dead: 1)
Macau - Confirmed: 10 (Recovered: 1)
Taiwan - Confirmed: 18 (Recovered: 1)

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The CEO of a company that I am on the board of believes he has discovered the mechanism of action for the Coronavirus.  He believes Cytodyn's drug, Lironlimab, will be an effective treatment.  He is QBing a three company team and working with the Chinese FDA to deliver this potential treatment.  More to come in the coming days.

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51 minutes ago, culdeus said:

once it hit an area that was prepped it has been different. 

We don’t know this. For all we know, people are sick, but it’s presenting like flu and they aren’t getting tested. People on the cruise ship didn’t know, and it’s spreading like crazy. We will know if it’s spreading in the general population. Just not yet. As reported, serious respiratory illness happens around Week 3 in maybe 1/3 of cases. That’s when we’d be apt to start identifying cases.

Rather than anyone with a fever getting tested, it’s more likely when higher than normal concentrations of pneumonia present that patients will start to get tested and some days later confirmed. 

Edited by Mr. Ham

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7 minutes ago, chet said:

He believes Cytodyn's drug, Lironlimab, will be an effective treatment.  He is QBing a three company team and working with the Chinese FDA to deliver this potential treatment.  More to come in the coming days.

Leronlimab has finished clinical trials for HIV treatment, correct? I am curious if the Chinese MNPA are willing to accept the American results as is, at least for HIV.

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18 minutes ago, chet said:

The CEO of a company that I am on the board of believes he has discovered the mechanism of action for the Coronavirus.  He believes Cytodyn's drug, Lironlimab, will be an effective treatment.  He is QBing a three company team and working with the Chinese FDA to deliver this potential treatment.  More to come in the coming days.

Now our FBG threads are infecting eachother?

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10 minutes ago, Doug B said:

Leronlimab has finished clinical trials for HIV treatment, correct? I am curious if the Chinese MNPA are willing to accept the American results as is, at least for HIV.

Makes sense. Respiratory complications are caused by uptake or same cells in lungs as HIV (ACE2.) ACE2 inhibitors bind to the receptors in these cells, preventing the corona part of the virus from connecting and being absorbed.

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11 minutes ago, Doug B said:

Leronlimab has finished clinical trials for HIV treatment, correct? I am curious if the Chinese MNPA are willing to accept the American results as is, at least for HIV.

They accepted the safety data--840+ humans with no ASEs.

The thinking is that Lironlimab will beef up the immune system so combined with an HIV like anti-viral, it should be effective.

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14 hours ago, Henry Ford said:

This may have already been discussed - scientists are reporting that the virus may be able to live in water droplets on door handles/etc for up to nine days outside the human body?  That seems bad.

Median life span 3 days, outliers 0 days and 9 days. Was didcussed a couple of pages ago. Culdeus brought the right info

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12 hours ago, Mr. Ham said:

Googling how to plant peyote. 

Beer is made from grain. HTH
;) 

Edited by msommer

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11 hours ago, ChiefD said:

, a huge oak tree, and a saw.. 

That should be ready for burning sometime late 2021 if you cut it down now

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On 2/10/2020 at 8:06 PM, [icon] said:

China changing the definition of "Confirmed" as a rare blatant/public attempt to cook the books. 

https://twitter.com/lwcalex/status/1226840055869632512?s=20

Now if you test positive but aren't symptomatic, you're no longer "confirmed" :lol:  This obviously further obfuscates any chance at identifying the true scope of this outbreak. 
 

Fewer confirmed cases = higher death rate. So it's not really sure that the change is a PR move

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6 hours ago, Don Hutson said:

 

 

It seems quarantining on a cruise ship may not have been a good decision (2.0)
;) 

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4 hours ago, msommer said:

That should be ready for burning sometime late 2021 if you cut it down now

If this pandemic can wait about 30 more days I'm scheduled to have that tree trimmed of all the dead wood up there. I probably have at least a cord of dead stuff up there. The tree trimmer is gonna take all the small stuff and leave me the firewood sized stuff. 

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Update from CEO 

"We have resumed our operations in China and the team is working hard to get to full strength as soon as possible. Our immediate focus is on employee safety and customer support as we manage the impact of the novel Coronavirus. As always, please continue to put safety first and observe all Coronavirus precautions.

We face a significant challenge in our operations worldwide due to our supply from China. We are making every effort to return to normal operating levels. To support our efforts, our procurement and logistic teams are using global sourcing wherever possible to address supplier sourcing challenges."

 

Back to work over there apparently :unsure:

Edited by [icon]

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11 minutes ago, [icon] said:

Update from CEO 

"We have resumed our operations in China and the team is working hard to get to full strength as soon as possible. Our immediate focus is on employee safety and customer support as we manage the impact of the novel Coronavirus. As always, please continue to put safety first and observe all Coronavirus precautions.

We face a significant challenge in our operations worldwide due to our supply from China. We are making every effort to return to normal operating levels. To support our efforts, our procurement and logistic teams are using global sourcing wherever possible to address supplier sourcing challenges."

 

Back to work over there apparently :unsure:

Stonks 📈

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27 minutes ago, Capella said:

Stonks 📈

Sounds like a capitulation... “Sure, we’ll lose 2-3 percent of the population. Gotta keep producing.”

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Recent posts don’t match the panic induced thread title, nor recent news articles regarding the anticipated peaking of the virus. But FBGs gonna FBG, I guess.

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11 hours ago, chet said:

The CEO of a company that I am on the board of believes he has discovered the mechanism of action for the Coronavirus.  He believes Cytodyn's drug, Lironlimab, will be an effective treatment.  He is QBing a three company team and working with the Chinese FDA to deliver this potential treatment.  More to come in the coming days.

Press release

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4 minutes ago, Grace Under Pressure said:

Recent posts don’t match the panic induced thread title, nor recent news articles regarding the anticipated peaking of the virus. But FBGs gonna FBG, I guess.

The thread starter has to edit it.

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Meanwhile in India: 

https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-cow-dung-cure-for-coronavirus-11581378967

Quote

 

Swami Chakrapani Maharaj, president of the Hindu Mahasabha—a century-old organization that advocates Hindutva (or “Hinduness”)—declared that “consuming cow urine and cow dung will stop the effect of infectious coronavirus.”

The swami added that a “person who chants ‘om namah shivay’ and applies cow dung” on his body “will be saved.” The Sanskrit chant is a salutation to Shiva, a Hindu deity.

The swami is a prominent figure in hard-line Hindu circles and has an ideological affinity with Mr. Modi

 

 

https://www.thenewsminute.com/article/wrongly-believing-he-has-coronavirus-andhra-man-kills-self-order-stop-spread-117979

Quote

 

"A man from Chittoor district suffering from a urinary tract infection took his own life after he mistook his symptoms for those of coronavirus. 54-year-old Balakrishnayya from Thottambedu village visited the Ruia Government General Hospital on Saturday for a medical consultation. According to his family members, miscommunication with the doctors led him to believe that he had coronavirus. 

“We told him that he did not have coronavirus, but he refused to let us near him. He told all the villagers to stay away. He would tell them that their kids would also end up contracting it if they came close to him,” Balakrishnayya’s son told reporters. 

...

According to his son, Balakrishnayya had panicked immensely, and started to believe he was a threat to the family and the village. “He started slinging stones at us when we tried to go near him. He said he needs to end his life immediately as he was a danger to the village. He told us not to come close and locked himself in,” he said. 

Balakrishnayya’s case seems to have been aggravated due to widespread misinformation on the disease, combined with insufficient measures by health officials in spreading awareness and calming people in such cases of false alarm. 

 

 

Edited by [icon]

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2 minutes ago, [icon] said:

Wait.  So we're supposed to stop eating cow #### and drinking cow urine?!?  #### that noise.  No way I'm giving up that just so half the world doesn't die. :angry:

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13 minutes ago, TheIronSheik said:

Wait.  So we're supposed to stop eating cow #### and drinking cow urine?!?  #### that noise.  No way I'm giving up that just so half the world doesn't die. :angry:

No...you're supposed to either start consuming it OR continue consuming it. Do NOT stop consuming it or the coronavirus wins.

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1 hour ago, Grace Under Pressure said:

Recent posts don’t match the panic induced thread title, nor recent news articles regarding the anticipated peaking of the virus. But FBGs gonna FBG, I guess.

If you can explain how the virus is going to peak when 100m people who’ve been quarantined go back to work, with a virus with an r score around 3 and incubation up to 24 days, then by all means explain it to me.

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1 hour ago, chet said:

Seriously, golf clap. If you have anything to do with this, well done!

Edited by Mr. Ham
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10 minutes ago, Hawks64 said:

No...you're supposed to either start consuming it OR continue consuming it. Do NOT stop consuming it or the coronavirus wins.

Oh, OK.  This makes way more sense.  

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Researchers at Imperial College of London estimate 19 people infected for everyone one confirmed. 
https://www.businessinsider.com/1-in-19-people-who-might-have-coronavirus-diagnosed-2020-2

 

"The Novel Coronavirus, 2019-nCoV, is Highly Contagious and More Infectious Than Initially Estimated" - Los Alamos National Lab Study
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.07.20021154v1.full.pdf

Quote

we estimated that the number of infected individuals during early epidemic double every 2.4 days, and the R0 value is likely to be between 4.7 and 6.6. We further show that quarantine and contact tracing of symptomatic individuals alone may not be effective and early, strong control measures are needed to stop transmission of the virus.

 

59 Suspected New Cases in Philippines 
https://www.cnnphilippines.com/news/2020/2/12/59-coronavirus-case-contacts-flu-like-symptoms.html

Quote

 

Fifty-nine contacts of the country’s first three confirmed cases of novel coronavirus are suspected of having the new viral disease now called COVID-19, a health official said Wednesday as authorities brace for the possibility of local transmission.

Of this number, 44 people came in contact with the Chinese couple from Wuhan – the Chinese city at the epicenter of the COVID-19 outbreak, while the rest were contacts of the third case – the 60-year-old Chinese woman, also from Wuhan, Health Undersecretary Eric Domingo said in a briefing.

 

 

 

Hong Kong Landlords Start to Slash Retail Rents as Virus Bites (paywall)
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-12/hong-kong-landlords-start-to-slash-retail-rents-as-virus-bites?utm_content=business&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business

 

 

 

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Super Spreaders

Sorry to cherry pick this kind of an article, but think there’s a balance, and guys like Chet are actually looking for viable treatment options. Here is a discussion that there are likely “superspreaders” that transmit the virus more efficiently than most. Case in point, an asymptomatic businessman who passed it on to at least 11 people in Singapore, France and UK while traveling. Article discusses that similar mechanism may be in play on the cruise ship.

Until there is data to the contrary, I assume any talk of the virus reaching a plateau is the result of scant testing kits and changes to the way cases are being counted, and not because the disease isn’t being transmitted.

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11 minutes ago, [icon] said:

Novel Coronavirus, 2019-nCoV, is Highly Contagious and More Infectious Than Initially Estimated" - Los Alamos National Lab Study
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.07.20021154v1.full.pdf

Holy ####! r score between 4.7 and 6.0?!!!

If that’s true, then there is no containing this from pandemic, period. Only ways of treating it that mitigate the severe cases and death. 

And 19 cases for everyone detected seems more in line with reality. Remember, people aren’t all that sick at first, and severe symptoms occur weeks in, in only 15-30% of cases.

And yet patients may be spreading it in complete absence of symptoms.

And, I don’t think one need subscribe to grand conspiracies to assume government and health organizations aren’t as invested in detecting and getting the word out as we might assume in our always on media culture. 

There are thousands of seeds planted that are growing and scattering their seeds. Any other argument seems naive to me, based on those articles and observations. 

The idea that the disease has peaked is nuts. I’d like anyone to argue seriously that we are better off from 3 weeks ago, when there were 800 confirmed cases and Wuhan went on lockdown... Explain this logically to me.

Edited by Mr. Ham

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13 minutes ago, Mr. Ham said:

Seriously, golf clap. If you have anything to do with this, well done!

I think more specifically he's looking to profit off this by buying the stock.

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5 minutes ago, culdeus said:

I think more specifically he's looking to profit off this by buying the stock.

He’s on the board, and disclosed that. Willing to assume the best of intentions here. If he makes money saving people, good on him.

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24 minutes ago, [icon] said:

"The Novel Coronavirus, 2019-nCoV, is Highly Contagious and More Infectious Than Initially Estimated" - Los Alamos National Lab Study
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.07.20021154v1.full.pdf

About this preliminary -- preliminary -- study: Keep in mind that anything on medrxiv.org is a preprint article. That means the studies and information at that site are not yet peer-reviewed. The methodology has not been replicated by other researchers. Other aspects of their study have not been reviewed for various types of biases and deficiencies.

It's not that the study is BS -- it's just that it might lean too much one way. Rate of transmission is an aggregated and estimated average, anyway. In some locales, it could be one ratio ... and then simultaneously be much higher or lower 20 miles away.

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https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m000f76k
 

Paraphrasing from Reddit (seems in line with general observations):

Interview on BBC with Epidemiologist and Director of Infectious Disease Analysis at Imperial College London.

(Neil Ferguson.)

Good news first:

Best guess at mortality rate 1%, not higher rates observed in China. (Though this is best guess.)

Bad news:

Containment has failed. Any and all usual suspect methods may slow it (hand washing, masks, quarantine,) but not contain it.

It will be a pandemic. 60% of population in UK will likely get it. 40m, 400k+ deaths. Extrapolate those numbers elsewhere. We’re essentially talking about something akin to seasonal flu, but 10x + as deadly. 

This is in line with Singapore PM addressing his nation with similar guidance, saying it’s likely trying to isolate and contain will be folly soon, so focus should be on not panicking, only burdening the healthcare system with severe cases, and maintaining social order.

I’d add China restarting industry as another indicator of the following reality:

This virus is going to infect much of, if not the majority, of the world population. We are going to have to live with the mortality rate, whatever that is. Best guess now is it’s anywhere from 1-3%. Focus should be on ways to get that number down as quickly as possible. Containing it is about as realistic as a global effort to contain the seasonal flu.

Sooner we come to terms with this and put all energies into vaccines and other means of treating severe cases/reducing the death rate, the better. Pretending the numbers are plateauing and tracking every case at this point is pointless. Will be an interesting year in terms of how this translates to human behavior. Will trade shows and events like Olympics go on? Business travel? Personal travel and things like cruises? Will people go out to eat? Will the world encourage business as usual to protect the economy? Will people accept this and self-modify behaviors (like most of my company’s employees have done on their own by opting out of going to Mobile World Congress.)

From now until there is a vaccine and people feel the mortality chances are managed, it’s going to be an interesting ride I think.

Edited by Mr. Ham
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3 minutes ago, Mr. Ham said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m000f76k
 

Paraphrasing from Reddit (seems in line with general observations):

Interview on BBC with Epidemiologist and Director of Infectious Disease Analysis at Imperial College London.

(Neil Ferguson.)

Good news first:

Best guess at mortality rate 1%, not higher rates observed in China. (Though this is best guess.)

Bad news:

Containment has failed. Any and all usual suspect methods may slow it (hand washing, masks, quarantine,) but not contain it.

It will be a pandemic. 60% of population in UK will likely get it. 40m, 400k+ deaths. Extrapolate those numbers elsewhere. We’re essentially talking about something akin to seasonal flu, but 10x + as deadly. 

This is in line with Singapore PM addressing his nation with similar guidance, saying it’s likely trying to isolate and contain will be folly soon, so focus should be on not panicking, only burdening the healthcare system with severe cases, and maintaining social order.

I’d add China restarting industry as another indicator of the following reality:

This virus is going to infect much of, if not the majority, of the world population. We are going to have to life with the mortality rate, whatever that is. Best guess now is it’s anywhere from 1-3%. Focus should be on ways to get that number down as quickly as possible. Containing it is about as realistic as a global effort to contain the seasonal flu. 

On the other hand, the containment has undoubtedly slowed the spread and that buys us time for developing vaccines/cures/death panels.

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10 minutes ago, cosjobs said:

On the other hand, the containment has undoubtedly slowed the spread and that buys us time for developing vaccines/cures/death panels.

Vaccine is 18 months out. 

Let’s just assume we will all start hearing within 2 months of someone we know or someone someone we know knows dying (we will if r score is 5, and death rate is 1%.) My guess is that people will refuse to go about non-essential activities (movies, going to the mall, out to eat, vacations, non-essential meetings, polls in November) until there is a vaccine for our kids, and there is proven treatment that cuts the mortality rate for severe cases to something more in line with seasonal flu. I could be wrong and people will be more willing to assimilate the risks of 1-3% death, and concede their family will contract it, but it’s going to be an interesting thing to weather.

I have a lot of faith in our smart scientists. A wartime like effort may be needed to accelerate, or the economy could take a nice wallop.

I sincerely hope in 1-2 months this post ages horribly. Also hope arrival of Spring/Summer in the Northern Hemisphere interferes with progression and buys more time.

 

Edited by Mr. Ham
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19 hours ago, Redwes25 said:

If there is a total break down of society where no heat, water or electricity exists I am just going to kiss my ### goodbye.  I could probably weather two weeks on food in my home which is probably better then most people where I live but would freeze death given it is February and cold in the NE.   

Yup.  

Q: "Where do you want to be if they drop the bomb?"

A: "Under it."

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35 minutes ago, Mr. Ham said:

And 19 cases for everyone detected seems more in line with reality. Remember, people aren’t all that sick at first, and severe symptoms occur weeks in, in only 15-30% of cases.

And yet patients may be spreading it in complete absence of symptoms.

Now this makes intuitive sense to me ... and I take it as good news.

A high number of asymptomatic carriers means that two rates are much lower than so far calculated: 1) rate of infected patients with severe symptoms, and 2) mortality rate. See the final paragraph of icon's Business Insider link a few posts above:

Quote

Still, the Imperial College researchers said comparing the death toll with this higher estimated number of cases suggests the coronavirus' fatality rate could be very low.

 

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10 minutes ago, Doug B said:

Now this makes intuitive sense to me ... and I take it as good news.

A high number of asymptomatic carriers means that two rates are much lower than so far calculated: 1) rate of infected patients with severe symptoms, and 2) mortality rate. See the final paragraph of icon's Business Insider link a few posts above:

 

Agree with this. It’s really a psychological barrier that needs to be crossed from containment to assimilation of the risks.

We live with flu, and a tenth of a percent death rate. If r score of Coronavirus is in fact 5ish, and no major modifications to daily life are made, then far more will get it than flu, since flu is 1.4ish. Exponentials kick in. Most Americans would get it. 

Hopefully the death rate is low, but it’s concerning that a double digit number of patients go into distress. What degree of risk will we accept without making major modifications to behavior? Having lost a kid to a flu-related illness, I will not accept a double digit chance that my kids will need to go to the hospital to treat respiratory illness without making substantial changes to prevent our getting it. 

I think it’s becoming evident that we are in for a bumpy transition as the general population comes to terms and we collectively decide what we are and are not going to do about it in terms of adjustments to daily life. I can imagine a lot of pressure from government to encourage life as usual so we don’t lose Applebee’s. But will we?

Edited by Mr. Ham

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