Just attended a conference which included a presentation on COVID-19. I haven’t read all posts in this thread, but you guys have done a pretty good job hitting the salient points of the outbreak, with a sprinkling of hysteria/conspiracy theories for good measure. Key points from my vantage:
It’s too early to draw firm conclusions regarding the extent of the epidemic and death rate, but the
Hopkins’ site is one of the best for updated numbers.
The R0 number is probably between 1.4 and 2.5, worse than seasonal flu, but probably not 3+ as has been reported by some sources. Asymptomatic transmission makes these estimates problematic, as do “super spreaders” who more readily pass on their bug than average.
I like the
NY Times graphic summarizing COVID-19’s infectivity versus mortality in comparison to other illnesses.
Pangolins are the most likely intermediate host. As an aside, there was a great PBS show on the plight of these animals, which are the most heavily trafficked species in the world. The Chinese and others believe their scales have medicinal properties, and their meat is consumed as well.
It appears to be spread by droplet transmission, consistent with other coronaviruses. But transmission has been documented in healthcare workers despite more aggressive isolation measures.
All treatments are experimental, with no firm data on any of the antivirals. A Phase I vaccine trial is on track to start in the next couple months.
The
IDSA website is a good source for accurate info and links to credible resources outside the Twittersphere and Reddit.