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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (19 Viewers)

So it's been in the upper 80s this past week. I wonder if the high temps and sunny skies will help reduce the spread of this thing.

 
mr roboto said:
Serious question…

Countries like Italy and South Korea are much smaller and more densely populated than a country like the US.  Obviously we have population centers like in the north east and along the west coast that rivaled the density of many Asian and European countries, however we also have large cities in the middle of the country surrounded by a whole lot of nothing.

My question is, won’t there be massive differences in the total size of the peak relative to the population and whether or not healthcare systems are overwhelmed between cities that have massive unconfined spread already (Seattle and New York City) versus areas with low case counts right now that are already starting to practice extreme social distancing?

In other words, should we start talking about regions or metropolitan area‘s versus the entire country here in the US in terms of predicted outcomes?
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One of the biggest problems that the lack of testing has caused is that it seems like the economy is all shutting down, all at once. 

China was very strategic in their shutdown and some regions were barely even impacted.  Here, the entire country is impacted.  If the entire country were to shut down for a month right now, there would likely be areas that  never had an issue with the virus. 

 
Malaysia reported 190 additional cases, putting them at a total of 428. Hot country, appears to be spreading.  

 
Ray McKigney said:
No, but have you ever eaten a dozen White Castle sliders in a sitting and washed them down with a couple cans of Busch? 
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Over just the last few pages, I've seen two FBGs admit that their alcohol supplies are already running low, and now we've got somebody resorting to consuming Busch.  Has the membership of this place really gone that far downhill, or has it always been like this and nobody every really noticed?

I've always imagined that the FBG community was built on a certain level of mutual respect and now I just don't know what to believe any more.

 
mr roboto said:
Where are you seeing a R0 of 10+?!?

Ive heard 2.2-3. 
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From: https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.23.916395v1

The early outbreak data largely follows the exponential growth. We estimated that the mean R0 ranges from 3.30 (95%CI: 2.73-3.96) to 5.47 (95%CI: 4.16-7.10) associated with 0-fold to 2-fold increase in the reporting rate. With rising report rate, the mean R0 is likely to be below 5 but above 3.
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People are upset that sporting events and such are being cancelled. Put an infected person into a sporting event crowd, and they will easily infect 10+ people. 

 
Politician Spock said:
From: https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.23.916395v1

People are upset that sporting events and such are being cancelled. Put an infected person into a sporting event crowd, and they will easily infect 10+ people. 
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OK yes if you put them in a massive crowd of course but the way you wrote that you were comparing it to the flus average rate of transmission and I think that that’s a bit sensationalistic and you should be a bit more careful.

 
mr roboto said:
OK yes if you put them in a massive crowd of course but the way you wrote that you were comparing it to the flus average rate of transmission and I think that that’s a bit sensationalistic and you should be a bit more careful.
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People also get flu shots.  Slows the spread by quite a bit

 
Spain about 6 days behind Italy in cases, and 8 days behind Italy in deaths.

Has anyone seen any information about Spain's healthcare system and whether it's overrun?  This is about the time when that should be happening.

 
mr roboto said:
OK yes if you put them in a massive crowd of course but the way you wrote that you were comparing it to the flus average rate of transmission and I think that that’s a bit sensationalistic and you should be a bit more careful.
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Good point we have to compare apples to apples.  If a person with the flu went to a sporting event, I'd have to imagine he would pass the flu onto many more people than if he stayed home.

 
IvanKaramazov said:
Do you have a link for this?  That's a way higher R0 than anything I've seen suggested anywhere.
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Thank you. Please let's all of us make sure we're hyper clear about what we are saying. 

And being super clear to provide a link if there is one if there is not a link, that we clearly say its' our opinion. And even better if possible, why you think what you think. 

 
IvanKaramazov said:
Over just the last few pages, I've seen two FBGs admit that their alcohol supplies are already running low, and now we've got somebody resorting to consuming Busch.  Has the membership of this place really gone that far downhill, or has it always been like this and nobody every really noticed?

I've always imagined that the FBG community was built on a certain level of mutual respect and now I just don't know what to believe any more.
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Don't fear, my wine cellar could last me to next spring. There are still some old guard around. 

 
kutta said:
From your first article:

40-70% of the US population will be infected over the next 12-18 months. 
 

I will wager any amount of money that anyone would like that we don’t hit 150 million cases of this.
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59MM got H1N1 in the first year of 2009's pandemic.  So a bit over 20%.  Reports are that this spreads more easily.  (And what saved us in 2009 is that it wasn't especially fatal.)

I think what's going to help with COVID is the reactions.  We missed the window to really halt it and we're not doing enough to kill it off today, but we're not doing nothing either.  A contiguous half the Atlantic seaboard has already closed schools for example (MD, VA, NC plus MA, RI).  Others will eventually follow.  It will probably get to 50% eventually, but not in year one and hopefully there's a vaccine available a year from now.

I went back and read some stuff on the 1957 flu and you can see in the death data which cities took measures and which didn't.  It's very dramatic in some cases.

 
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mr roboto said:
OK yes if you put them in a massive crowd of course but the way you wrote that you were comparing it to the flus average rate of transmission and I think that that’s a bit sensationalistic and you should be a bit more careful.
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THIS x100

To be clear, we are all reading alot and in many cases making educated guesses based upon imperfect data.  So let's be sure to clearly state our assumptions when doing so.

 
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AAABatteries said:
Woke up this morning and have some chest congestion but very slight.  Almost unnoticeable.  No other symptoms.   :oldunsure:

I have allergies so totally normal but given what’s going on it gives a person pause.  I think I need to step away from the thread and news in general - I’m going to go insane if I don’t.  And I’m never this way but this one has me a little spooked.
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Are you going to self quarantine for 14 days?

 
mr roboto said:
OK yes if you put them in a massive crowd of course but the way you wrote that you were comparing it to the flus average rate of transmission and I think that that’s a bit sensationalistic and you should be a bit more careful.
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People are questioning why we are cancelling massive crowd events for covid-19 but not cancelling massive crowd events for the flu. Massive crowd events are the context of the discussion. 

 
Politician Spock said:
Okay, let's compare Covid-19 to the flu... since people just can't seem to let that comparison go.

On average, someone infected with the flu will infect 1.3 other people. This rate of spread is so slow that it does not overwhelms the hospital system with those who experience extreme cases of the flu and need hospital care to avoid dying from it.

On average, someone infected with the covid-19 virus will infect 10+ other people. This rate of spread is so fast that it overwhelms the hospital system with those who experience extreme cases of the covid-19 virus and need hospital care to avoid dying from it. When the hospital system is overwhelmed, patients do not get the hopsital care they need. In Italy today, if you arrive at a hospital and need care, you are put on a cot outside the hospital in a tent. The staff puts you on a list and they determine who on that list will get the care they need and who will not. Many people will die from covid-19 that could have been saved with propper hospital care. 

The death rate of covid-19 is already significantly higher than the flu, but once a country's hospital system is overwhelmed, the death rate spikes even higher due to lack of proper hospital care.

The steps the US is taking right now has absolutely nothing to do with what one person is likely to experience when infected with with covid-19. If you compare that experience to the flu, then yes you will find some similarities, and question why we don't take these steps to combat the flu too. That is applying a micro view to a macro problem. The macro problem is due to covid-19's ability to spread itself 10+ times faster than the flu. While that does not change the individual experience of covid-19 infection (it's still comparable to the flu), IT IS SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT TO THE NATION'S EXPERIENCE AND WILL OVERWHELM THE HOSPITAL SYSTEM!!! The scientists studying the macro experience (again, the micro experience is irrelevant) run the numbers and see millions dying from this once the hospital system becomes overwhelmed.

The entire point of closing much of our economy down is to slow the rate of spread, to keep our hospitals from becoming overwhelmed and avoid unnecessary deaths from that. 

So please.... please.... PLEASE stop comparing it to the flu, unless you are comparing the rate of spread, because the rate of spread is what makes it so ridiculously different from the flu. 
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@Politician Spock not sure why you’re having a hard time here. The bolded is inaccurate and I’m just saying be more careful. Many people ITT have followed this carefully and NO ONE as heard a R0 anywhere approaching 10. If that’s true it would devastatingly alter the course of human civilization in very short order. 

 
shader said:
Good point we have to compare apples to apples.  If a person with the flu went to a sporting event, I'd have to imagine he would pass the flu onto many more people than if he stayed home.
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I agree. But this results in a multiplication, not addition. A multiple of 1.3 is going to be a lot smaller than that same multiple applied to a larger number. 

This is why we aren't shutting down small gatherings and normal day to day events like grocery shopping. The multiple is much lower in those events despite the base R0 not changing. 

If people are asking why we don't take the same approach of shutting down large events for the flu, you CANNOT ignore that the result is a multiple of the base R0. 

 
Politician Spock said:
People are questioning why we are cancelling massive crowd events for covid-19 but not cancelling massive crowd events for the flu. Massive crowd events are the context of the discussion. 
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Because it's more deadly than the flu, and there is no vaccine.  

Some disease spread is acceptable otherwise we would have to live in quarantine forever.  However, this disease seems to have pushed us over the edge of what is acceptable inevitability.  

Hospitals are already mostly full, now add this to it?  

No mass gathering closures would certainly lead to a larger number of deaths and chaos.

The system needs time to prepare.

 
bradyfan said:
FBG, please pace yourselves.
People in Wuhan posted pictures of scrumptious feasts they prepared at home at the start of lockdown then completely nothing after 2 weeks.
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Yeah, the beginnings of a quarantine are kind of fun.  Gonna really suck in a couple weeks.

 
Shatner! said:
Major supply chain problems where my wife works. 

Hand gel an issue.
Looking into creating mash like tent hospitals
Linen company struggling to keep staff to wash linen
Delivery drivers refusing to deliver to hospitals to avoid getting sick
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ugh

 
shader said:
Spain about 6 days behind Italy in cases, and 8 days behind Italy in deaths.

Has anyone seen any information about Spain's healthcare system and whether it's overrun?  This is about the time when that should be happening.
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coronavirus spread‏ @covid2019_info 23m23 minutes ago

https://twitter.com/covid2019_info/status/1239188697616187402

INFO ALERT - More than 2,000 additional #coronavirus cases in #Spain (7,753 infected). The death toll has increased: +152 deaths in 24 hours, or 288 in total. Spain is the country most affected by #COVIDー19 after #Italy. (EFE) #CoronaVirusUpdates

coronavirus spread @covid2019_info 5h

 https://twitter.com/covid2019_info/status/1239109196433575936

#COVIDー19 cases :

#China 80,849 (+25)

#Italy 21,157 (+3,497)

#Iran 12,729

SouthKorea 8,162

#Spain 6,391

#France 4,500

#USA 3,044

#Switzerland 1,375

#Uk 1,140

Norway 1,120

 
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Switzerland went from 1,375 cases to 2,217 cases in the last 24 hours. That is a 61% increase.

They are also now 2nd on the list of cases per 1 million of population at 256.2. Italy tops that list at 349.9

Norway is 3rd on that list at 222.3, despite only having 1,205 total cases. They may be getting overlooked given their total population is so small, but a significant portion of their population has it. 

 
eoMMan said:
How long do you think 50 rolls will last?  How long does one roll last in your household?
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We buy one of those pack's at costco every other month. My business is done at work 5 days per week. The rest of the family is probably less than that, but it's also greater than 0. We will definitely go through it quicker over the next few weeks.

 
bradyfan said:
FBG, please pace yourselves.
People in Wuhan posted pictures of scrumptious feasts they prepared at home at the start of lockdown then completely nothing after 2 weeks.
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The issue at grocery stores has been keeping them clean, the shelves stocked, and the crowds orderly. Not food supply. Is there evidence this will change? 

We had a full fridge, freezer, and pantry last week. I avoided the mayhem at the stores. I will go out and reload sometime during this week. Am I in for a surprise? 

 
MAC_32 said:
The issue at grocery stores has been keeping them clean, the shelves stocked, and the crowds orderly. Not food supply. Is there evidence this will change? 

We had a full fridge, freezer, and pantry last week. I avoided the mayhem at the stores. I will go out and reload sometime during this week. Am I in for a surprise? 
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Stores are cutting hours.   I guess 24 hour stores like walmart will be closed 11pm-6am for cleaning and stocking. 

 
MAC_32 said:
The issue at grocery stores has been keeping them clean, the shelves stocked, and the crowds orderly. Not food supply. Is there evidence this will change? 

We had a full fridge, freezer, and pantry last week. I avoided the mayhem at the stores. I will go out and reload sometime during this week. Am I in for a surprise? 
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I refreshed yesterday. There is still a lot of food but no where near what you would normally expect. Wasn’t able to get a pork shoulder as planned and dried beans and canned food were scarce. 

 
IvanKaramazov said:
Over just the last few pages, I've seen two FBGs admit that their alcohol supplies are already running low, and now we've got somebody resorting to consuming Busch.  Has the membership of this place really gone that far downhill, or has it always been like this and nobody every really noticed?

I've always imagined that the FBG community was built on a certain level of mutual respect and now I just don't know what to believe any more.
Click to expand...
Found a couple White Claws in my backpack this morning. Have the bottle of tequila I bought in Jalisco Wednesday, a case of assorted Kona beers, a 24 pack of Bud Light, and two bottles of Gluehwein I hope to not need to open. Should be a nice little Sunday.

 
MontCo county PA update-  local Giant very quiet- no lines..   no TP 

Pretty well stocked on everything else--  so we grabbed a few things for my 80 year old  in laws and did multiple trips to wine aisle (liquor stores closing Tues :shock: )

everyone was very friendly and talkative..very eerie

 
I was going to go in for a follow-up a blood test this week for an unrelated issue to COVID19.  My county of over a million people is just up to 4 cases as of this morning.  In general, should I be worried about this?

 
rustycolts said:
So it's been in the upper 80s this past week. I wonder if the high temps and sunny skies will help reduce the spread of this thing.
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heat & humidity does not kill it, it just makes it harder to pass between humans because the humidity stops it from flying as far thru the air. It will ramp back up in the fall unless a vaccine is created.

 
need to stop the church goes in their tracks. They think they can pray away the virus. 2 people I know are still going there. It will thin their herd soon if they dont stop going.

 
MAC_32 said:
The issue at grocery stores has been keeping them clean, the shelves stocked, and the crowds orderly. Not food supply. Is there evidence this will change? 

We had a full fridge, freezer, and pantry last week. I avoided the mayhem at the stores. I will go out and reload sometime during this week. Am I in for a surprise? 
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We finally got an email from corporate how to handle a positive test- that person and any who worked shifts with them self quarantine for 14 days.  I assume that is SOP for any business, so I think some of the nervousness is people worried that will happen in their area and stores will have to start shutting down for bits of time or really limit hours.  

 
Random thought

I am all for strategically infecting masses of people who agree to quarantines.  Say people ages 18-50.  

2-3 weeks quarantine, government paid.  Hell use the cruise ships for it.  And stadiums.

Honestly, I think that would go a long way in helping the bigger picture, and in a matter of 2 months would could probably have half the damn country no longer at risk which means no longer contagious.

 
lod001 said:
need to stop the church goes in their tracks. They think they can pray away the virus. 2 people I know are still going there. It will thin their herd soon if they dont stop going.
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We are staying home. our church is having services. I advised them to at least not pass the offering buckets. I think our “sanctuary” holds 300, maybe 500 I can’t recall exactly. Last week it was half full. I expect today would be even less. I wanted to go just to see how many and if they took my bucket suggestion. Mr clown said no. 

 
tipsy mcstagger said:
I am likely shutting down my restaurant today.  New Orleans is a bit of an epicenter.
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We have been mandated to go to carry out and delivery only which we immediately complied with. Of course there are a few non complaint competitors that are raking it in as we speak 👎🏼

 
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