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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread

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Will say it again. Always some ####### gonna #### a monkey or lick a bat.

I’ll add tongue kiss a pangolin. 

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11 minutes ago, Mr. Ham said:

Hopefully the death rate is low, but it’s concerning that a double-digit number of patients go into distress.

So far as suspected now. I expect this rate to drop once better estimates of the number of asymptomatic/low-symptom carriers come in. 

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My brother is leaving in a few weeks to vacation in Thailand

 

Should I be worried? 

 

 

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Just now, Wrigley said:

My brother is leaving in a few weeks to vacation in Thailand

 

Should I be worried? 

 

 

Naw.... Just don't plan on any visits to see him or invite him over until at least August.

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1 hour ago, Mr. Ham said:

Seriously, golf clap. If you have anything to do with this, well done!

I am not behind the science part but I am actively involved with the company that put this together.  

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Can anybody talk Ham off the ledge? I'm a little worried he's gonna feel a little warm one day and take the easy out like the dude in India. I'm concerned for your well being.

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Change the thread title to "COVID-19 confirmed to spread through fecal gas clouds, so stock up today on your 25 pound buckets of pinto beans"  

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I don't know which one I posted last, but there was no update from the MedCram Youtube today. This one below covers the doctor who died... the one who brought attention to the issue. Around 5 minutes, they break down his hospitalization through his death. He was suspected of having the virus before 1/12/2020, when he was hospitalized, but he didn't text positive until 2/1/2020, and he died 6 days later. I don't know what it means, if anything, but I don't believe the shorter times being listed.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0UgrPgJdzp0&t=15s

 

I also heard China changed the way they determined infected, and that could be what is driving the decrease or plateau we've seen in new cases. I can't see how anyone can trust their numbers anyway, and the real question will be how things progress in other parts of the world.

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41 minutes ago, beer 30 said:

Can anybody talk Ham off the ledge? I'm a little worried he's gonna feel a little warm one day and take the easy out like the dude in India. I'm concerned for your well being.

I came back from a trip that passed through International Terminal of Atlanta Hartsfield-Jackson the weekend prior (joked about it here during), and spent all of last week as sick as I’ve been in years with a hacking cough and what was obviously an oozing and hideous sinus infection. I read that if you don’t have a fever, you should wait 10 days for a sinus infection to go to the doctor, because if it’s viral anti-biopics won’t help. Finally diminished on Day 10 enough that I can sleep without hacking.

Since I self diagnosed as a sinus infection, I was out and about several times to stores, and gym on the first day home and by Day 7 when I felt like I was mending.(I washed my hands and used anti-bacterial goo before and after and no sneezing or coughing at those stages.)

I wasn’t driving to the ER, or even jumpy enough to go to my GP. But maybe my behavior proves the opposite of your assumption. A lot of people like me have symptoms of illness, but aren’t going to be holed up at home behind plastic. 

 

Edited by Mr. Ham

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4 hours ago, Grace Under Pressure said:

Recent posts don’t match the panic induced thread title, nor recent news articles regarding the anticipated peaking of the virus. But FBGs gonna FBG, I guess.

Can you please link the "anticipated peaking of the virus" info that you have?

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Blood drive at work today. They wouldn't take me because I changed planes in Hong Kong 3 weeks ago. BRB, making sure my will is up-to-date.

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Here's a paid interview with the CEO of Cytodyn about how the group will proceed to see if the proposed treatment works.  Warning:  He's not a great communicator.

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54 minutes ago, Mr. Ham said:

But maybe my behavior proves the opposite of your assumption. A lot of people like me have symptoms of illness, but aren’t going to be holed up at home behind plastic.

Super spreader :thumbup:

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21 hours ago, Mr. Ham said:

I mentioned a couple of times that I work for a major Fortune 50 tech company. We got internal guidance not to attend meetings of over 1k, and any meeting over 100 has special protocols and need on premise medical staff.

Have been wondering if we will go ahead with our major presence at Mobile World Congress, from 24-27 in Barcelona. Biggest mobile tech conference.

 

 Coronavirus leads to cancellation of massive MWC mobile trade show in Barcelona

You don't have to pull out now Ham!

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2 minutes ago, chet said:

What does the r-score of a virus indicate?

How contagious it is. The higher the number the worse it is with Measles being the worse with a score like R12-18, which means if someone has measles they infect 12 to 18 additional people.  

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16 minutes ago, Senor Schmutzig said:

If you’ve ever been to this or one like it, it really is shocking. Amount of investment is incredible. There’s a billion dollar economy around an event like this. You’d need an economist to balance the actual impact after all wasted time, opportunity is balanced against cost savings. But talk about something to shock you out of a normalcy bias. And it’s not really about this so much as it being a leading indicators for other things that will have to make judgments in light of current data in the coming weeks or months (like Olympics.) And when cases are local and fears are not due to international co-mingling, what else might get cancelled or close? This is simply a signal that things we are definitely not used to may materialize in 2020.

Edited by Mr. Ham

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10 minutes ago, Redwes25 said:

How contagious it is. The higher the number the worse it is with Measles being the worse with a score like R12-18, which means if someone has measles they infect 12 to 18 additional people.  

Seen r scores as low as 3, but icon linked a study earlier that estimates 4.7-6. Which means wildfire without a vaccine.

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9 minutes ago, Redwes25 said:
13 minutes ago, chet said:

What does the r-score of a virus indicate?

How contagious it is. The higher the number the worse it is with Measles being the worse with a score like R12-18, which means if someone has measles they infect 12 to 18 additional people.  

COVID-19 (the Wuhan virus) is still too new to have sufficient historical data to pin down a R0 . Right now, varying sources give a fairly wide range** -- this will firm up after some months have passed, more data is collected, and a history can be worked out.

** scroll down to links 4, 5, and 6 to read more.

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For sake of round numbers, let’s land on 2.5% morality rate as a realistic but unfounded estimate. If you have a family of 4, would you be willing to go about normal life knowing that if your family catches it, you’re likely all going to get it, and there’s a 10% chance one of you will die? Let’s round it down to 1%. Same question. Are you willing to go about your business knowing there’s a 4% chance?

When my son died in 2014, he was the second child in recent memory that had died in his elementary school of 700 or so. Sadly, another kid from his same first grade school class of about 20 died on the bus home about two years ago from a heart related but genetic condition. But in maybe 20 years, we’re talking about 3 kids out of tens of thousands, as things ought to be at worst. Even a 1% morality rate, of its indiscriminate is terrifying. We’d expect to see multiple kids die annually. 

Edited by Mr. Ham

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1 minute ago, Mr. Ham said:

And it’s not really about this so much as it being a leading indicators for other things that will have to make judgments in light of current data in the coming weeks or months (like Olympics.) And when cases are local and fears are not due to international co-mingling, what else might get cancelled or close? This is simply a signal that things we are definitely not used to may materialize in 2020.

:coffee:

Mobile World Congress Cancellation Over Coronavirus Is Foreboding Sign for Events

First shoe to drop. Definitely won't be the only.

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1 minute ago, Mr. Ham said:

For sake of round numbers, let’s land on. 2.5% morality rate as a realistic but unfounded estimate. If you have a family of 4, would you be willing to go about normal life knowing that if your family catches it, you’re likely all going to get it, and there’s a 10% chance one of you will die? Let’s round it down to 1%. Same question. Are you willing to go about your business knowing there’s a 4% chance?

I think you are getting way ahead of yourself here.  We don't know any of these things like morality or Rscore.  I would not be surprised if Rscore is on the high side but think morality rate is way off at this point and will be much lower.  This is of course just my total guess.    

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2 minutes ago, Redwes25 said:

I think you are getting way ahead of yourself here.  We don't know any of these things like morality or Rscore.  I would not be surprised if Rscore is on the high side but think morality rate is way off at this point and will be much lower.  This is of course just my total guess.    

I don’t know, but not encouraged by images and stories out of Wuhan. 

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1 minute ago, Mr. Ham said:

For sake of round numbers, let’s land on. 2.5% morality rate as a realistic but unfounded estimate. If you have a family of 4, would you be willing to go about normal life knowing that if your family catches it, you’re likely all going to get it, and there’s a 10% chance one of you will die? Let’s round it down to 1%. Same question. Are you willing to go about your business knowing there’s a 4% chance?

1) I don't believe those will be the eventual mortality rates. Just an educated (I hope) hunch ... but I'm not counting on rates nearly that high.

2) Even at 2.5% ... I wouldn't take that as a random 1-in-40 chance for any given individual. That's really something like "15% of people with compromised immune systems, then 12% of people over 70, then 10% of people with underlying respiratory conditions like COPD, etc." I would estimate (based on not much, admittedly) that the odds for me and mine would be astronomically low :shrug: 

...

I won't pretend all my decisions regarding COVID-19 are and/or will be coldly logical. And I have not gone through your experiences. In the end, I confess to having something of a blind optimism about all this. I understand and fully expect that others will differ.

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Just now, Mr. Ham said:

I don’t know, but not encouraged by images and stories out of Wuhan. 

The images and stories -- even if all 100% true -- to me, are individual anecdotes and snapshots of something looking bad in some particular spot at some particular time. There's a combination of bad information, panic, overwhelmed medical facilities and staff, etc. going on in Wuhan ... so it's not hard to find terrible-looking slices of truth scattered about.

People aren't posting videos of asymptomatic carriers hanging out in their apartments, dudes with post-nasal drip coughing into their sleeve and reaching for the Vicks, etc. Basically, we're getting presented with the absolute worst in images and stories ... and being asked to believe that they represent the totality of truth. That those are the default conditions. That it's that bad over every inch of Wuhan. And all over China.

Pessimism and shock get clicks. I remain willfully skeptical, for better or worse.

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1 minute ago, Doug B said:

I won't pretend all my decisions regarding COVID-19 are and/or will be coldly logical. And I have not gone through your experiences. In the end, I confess to having something of a blind optimism about all this. I understand and fully expect that others will differ.

On fairness, I can’t blame all of my jumpiness on my son dying. I was like this in 2009 with swine flu, 5 years before that.

My understanding is that this virus attacks people with healthy immune systems. In fact, it may be healthiest immune systems that create the most violent response that fills lungs with fluid.

I’m not trying to argue this into being more serious than it is, but there is a reason China took the extreme approach they did, and it’s clear things have been very, very bad there.

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2 minutes ago, Doug B said:

The images and stories -- even if all 100% true -- to me, are individual anecdotes and snapshots of something looking bad in some particular spot at some particular time. There's a combination of bad information, panic, overwhelmed medical facilities and staff, etc. going on in Wuhan ... so it's not hard to find terrible-looking slices of truth scattered about.

People aren't posting videos of asymptomatic carriers hanging out in their apartments, dudes with post-nasal drip coughing into their sleeve and reaching for the Vicks, etc. Basically, we're getting presented with the absolute worst in images and stories ... and being asked to believe that they represent the totality of truth. That those are the default conditions. That it's that bad over every inch of Wuhan. And all over China.

Pessimism and shock get clicks. I remain willfully skeptical, for better or worse.

I’ll defer to Neil Ferguson, epidemiologist I quoted above at 1% best guess. Still high. And fact is although you make sense and clearly extreme images and stories will be clustered, we don’t know how bad it is and have to watch what happens in places that are presumably more transparent.

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10 minutes ago, Mr. Ham said:

I’ll defer to Neil Ferguson, epidemiologist I quoted above at 1% best guess. Still high. And fact is although you make sense and clearly extreme images and stories will be clustered, we don’t know how bad it is and have to watch what happens in places that are presumably more transparent.

I searched for that quote and it only shows up on Reddit and your link is to 3 hours of BBC radio.  I would love to hear him say all that stuff as I don't believe what is on some reddit thread.  

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29 minutes ago, Mr. Ham said:

My understanding is that this virus attacks people with healthy immune systems.

All viruses do this. Do you mean something different here?

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27 minutes ago, Mr. Ham said:

I’ll defer to Neil Ferguson, epidemiologist I quoted above at 1% best guess. Still high.

I expect that he and others in the field will be revising their best guesses down with some frequency over the next year or so. More optimism than hard proof, of course.

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16 minutes ago, Redwes25 said:

I searched for that quote and it only shows up on Reddit and your link is to 3 hours of BBC radio.  I would love to hear him say all that stuff as I don't believe what is on some reddit thread.  

Having to leave the office now ... but there is a link to Ferguson's (with many others) research here in this thread. Icon posted a bunch of links in one post earlier today ... Ferguson's research is affiliated with Imperial College in London, UK. You can search that college name, with Ferguson's name and "coronavirus" and get a copy of the research.

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Yeah, maybe I’m being an optimist but IF the virus breaks out of contain and spreads all over there are 2 things I’m optimistic about here:

1) That quality of care rises substantially here, driving down mortality rates as people get access to better conditions fighting pneumonia.
2)Experience only helps. By the time it would get here, a game plan of how to fight it gets more and more complete. What anti-virals work, what warning signs to get on quickly, CDC is learning more and more with each case.

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***HotTakeAlert***
 

On another note, can China maybe learn from this and shut down these idiotic wet markets and crappy food handling of exotic animals? How many pandemics (every 10 years we get an Asian X Flu straight outta China) have to start there before they get a clue? And it isn’t a 3rd world or tons of people thing as these aren’t starting in India, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Brazil. People need to not shy away from ‘cultural differences must be respected!!!’ and this stuff needs a proper shaming. Maybe the economic impact will finally do it to get their crap together. 

—-Annoyed in America 

 

Edited by Hugh Jass
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30 minutes ago, Doug B said:

All viruses do this. Do you mean something different here?

I mean in the minority of cases which become severe, the most serious may be in those whose healthy immune systems are responsible for the complications that drown them in fluids.

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sxsw coming up March 13-22 in Austin. Huge conference comprised of Internet, film, and music. Well over 100k, and similar scale to Mobile World Congress. Today’s news can’t be comforting to organizers. Still a few weeks until a decision would need to be made. 

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On 2/6/2020 at 3:20 PM, jamny said:

12 confirmed cases in the US

2 deaths outside of Mainland China

Updated numbers from a week ago:

13 confirmed cases in the US

2 deaths outside of Mainland China

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Has anyone checked on North Korea since this thing started?  I can't imagine there being any good news out of that country once this hits them.  They haven't reported any cases but I also realize that Glorious Leader won't be telling anyone if there are.  

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5 minutes ago, Scoresman said:

Has anyone checked on North Korea since this thing started?  I can't imagine there being any good news out of that country once this hits them.  They haven't reported any cases but I also realize that Glorious Leader won't be telling anyone if there are.  

https://www.thedailybeast.com/north-koreas-secret-coronavirus-crisis-is-crazy-scary
 

Daily Beast article. It’s likely there, at least in small numbers. The west will not get any transparency. They are ill equipped.

Edited by Mr. Ham

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On 2/11/2020 at 5:26 PM, Capella said:

Some of y’all need to take a deep breath. Wow. 

I think we need to bump this every 5-6 posts in here. 

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45 minutes ago, Mr. Ham said:

https://www.thedailybeast.com/north-koreas-secret-coronavirus-crisis-is-crazy-scary
 

Daily Beast article. It’s likely there, at least in small numbers. The west will not get any transparency. They are ill equipped.

That’s behind a paywall. 

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9 minutes ago, Capella said:

I think we need to bump this every 5-6 posts in here. 

Or just staple it to Ham’s head. 

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23:30:   14,840 new cases, including clinically diagnosed cases, and 242 new deaths in Hubei province, China.

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1 minute ago, Penguin said:

23:30:   14,840 new cases, including clinically diagnosed cases, and 242 new deaths in Hubei province, China.

Wow

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That's just the province Wuhan's in

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19 minutes ago, Penguin said:

23:30:   14,840 new cases, including clinically diagnosed cases, and 242 new deaths in Hubei province, China.

In what time frame?

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4 minutes ago, Henry Ford said:

In what time frame?

24 hours

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China reports once per day for the Hybei province, around 6:30-7:00pm EST

They report the rest of the mainland once per day roughly an hour later. 7:30-8:00pm EST

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According to BNO news:

 

The reason for the sharp increase is because Hubei province is now including clinically diagnosed cases in the number of confirmed cases. This means those cases are not laboratory confirmed. They say other provinces are doing the same.

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