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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (18 Viewers)

So along with WFH I will be my kids teacher apparently.  The schools sent home big packs of stuff we have to go over.  The wife is a PT so she has to go into the hospitals.

 
Redwes25 said:
This pisses me off. They gave the guy steroids which if you read reports is a major no no since it weakens immune system. 
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So I just finished a 9 day course of prednisone today and I’m worried. I’m not sure how long it takes for my immune system to return to normal. 

 
Binky The Doormat said:
I posted in another thread about how sick I was back in October/November - like 8 full weeks.  Fever, non-stop coughing, 20 hours a day sleeping, couldn't breathe ...really thought I was going to die.  The doctor never could figure out what it was - had x-rays for pneumonia - didn't have it.  After 8 painful weeks and 2 rounds of antibiotics, steriods and steriod shots ...I finally kicked it.  Took another month to feel really normal again.  The only thing they could come up with was "it was some kind of serious upper respiratory infection."  

Going in tomorrow for my regular check-in for A1C, and other tests (cholesterol, triglycerides) - now that we are hearing about the large number of "covid-19 similar" cases over the past few months I am anxious to see if I might have had it.  
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They’re not going to able to tell you, as COVID antibody tests to show resolved infection aren’t widely available. It’s a different test than those for acute infection.

 
LA Mayor Garcetti orders closures of movie theaters, bars, gyms and in-person dining at restaurants to help prevent the spread of the virus.

 
Not sure if this was posted or not. Only thing moving faster than covid19 is this thread... 

http://The New York Times: The Man With 17,700 Bottles of Hand Sanitizer Just Donated Them. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/15/technology/matt-colvin-hand-sanitizer-donation.html

 
Binky The Doormat said:
seems like the standard treatment approach to respiratory infections though ...right?
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I can’t answer that one as not a doctor but you may be right. Annoying that they say he has flu and treat like flu and they know it isn’t from testing and some of treatment may have been worse for him. 

 
TripItUp said:
S. Korea was incredibly organized, had proper testing and cultural advantages(they follow directions), so no, we don't have the ability to pull off what South Korea did.

United States doesn't have testing on a mass scale yet, and culturally the majority of us don't trust the govt.  The American bravado and our lack of preparedness make us more likely to be Italy than South Korea.  
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This is what concerns me. South Korea is innovative, acted immediately from China's data and developed massive testing and drive-thru sites, and Asian countries as a whole are obedient and more society-based. China has a centralized one-party government that can act quickly and powerfully with massive numbers and resources. Us Americans, we are neither. We are almost too decentralized. And it is my right to eat this burger in this restaurant, gosh darnit!

 
Cancelled the Jamaica trip, was supposed to leave tomorrow. The thought of possibly being quarantined for two weeks with the wife and kids when I got back didn’t sound to enticing.  And Jamaica sounds like is changing quick for the worse. Got all my money back at least.  

 
Binky The Doormat said:
I posted in another thread about how sick I was back in October/November - like 8 full weeks.  Fever, non-stop coughing, 20 hours a day sleeping, couldn't breathe ...really thought I was going to die.  The doctor never could figure out what it was - had x-rays for pneumonia - didn't have it.  After 8 painful weeks and 2 rounds of antibiotics, steriods and steriod shots ...I finally kicked it.  Took another month to feel really normal again.  The only thing they could come up with was "it was some kind of serious upper respiratory infection."  

Going in tomorrow for my regular check-in for A1C, and other tests (cholesterol, triglycerides) - now that we are hearing about the large number of "covid-19 similar" cases over the past few months I am anxious to see if I might have had it.  
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Unless we are being lied to, you couldn’t have had it in October as it’s first jump to humans was November-December in China.

 
gianmarco said:
Italy actually locked down pretty quickly. They took far more measures earlier on than we have here.

That's what is so bad. 
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This is where this thread gets tough to follow. It wasn't too many pages back where it was said that Italy was having a really tough time with the lock down because people were going on vacations/trips due to school closures. I mean Italy has been mentioned a ton for how bad a job they did but now you are saying that they did more than we have done?

 
stbugs said:
This is where this thread gets tough to follow. It wasn't too many pages back where it was said that Italy was having a really tough time with the lock down because people were going on vacations/trips due to school closures. I mean Italy has been mentioned a ton for how bad a job they did but now you are saying that they did more than we have done?
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I read something a few days ago that discussed the timeline. I'll see if I can find it later when I get back home. But, the gist was that they locked down northern Italy relatively quickly and then the entire country shortly afterward. Now, I also read how not everyone took it seriously at first, but the initial government response was there.

Here's a good article I just found that goes into it a little more.  And one more

 
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[icon] said:
I personally think supply runs are risky as hell in areas that are likely to have open spread. That's why I advocated folks stocking up a month ago.
 
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This will be situational, I think. The last two times I’ve shopped (late Wednesday night, early this morning), there have been few enough shoppers to make social distancing a snap. Mindful of fomites, I used plenty of hand sanitizer throughout both trips, including immediately before and after checkout.

 
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CurlyNight said:
Will cancel doc appt for Tues, keep my lab and port flush appt for Thurs, cancel colonoscopy for next Tuesday and keep appt with pcp next Thurs since not feeling well and hopefully she'll take over rxing my meds since the oncologist I love quit.
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Not going to cardiac rehab. Gold’s closed too. Will do all my work at home. Doctor visit last Thursday will be last for at least a month 

 
CurlyNight said:
Did the cardiac rehab team give you what exercises to do at home? 
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Yeah i was mostly doing increasing interval cardio on treadmill, bike and elliptical while monitoring heart rate. I will just do brisk walks with my dog and get back on the Peleton. Wearing my Apple Watch. Heart app has been very accurate so trust it. 

 
Binky The Doormat said:
seems like the standard treatment approach to respiratory infections though ...right?
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Steroids are used in exacerbations of asthma and emphysema, and sometimes when wheezing is prominent in respiratory tract infections, usually bronchitis. They also are given out of desperation in ARDS, though there isn’t clear benefit, unless the underlying cause is a steroid-responsive process.

Steroids are NOT a routine treatment for pneumonia, viral or otherwise. However, there is a body of evidence that shows they may help patients hospitalized with severe bacterial pneumonia. But it’s a controversial topic.

In general, I wouldn’t recommend prednisone for outpatient respiratory infections, unless you have underlying asthma/COPD. In the hospital, they may give steroids if you’re sick enough.

 
Unfortunately I've been out of a job for a while. One of the ways I've been making money is delivering for Door Dash. I am planning on going out tomorrow. I'm curious as to how that goes. 

 
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Terminalxylem said:
The inhaler is probably albuterol. Need to read about the French justification for no NSAIDS, but agree to preferentially use acetaminophen for fever. Non-prescription sleep aids, with the exception of melatonin, stink.
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Thanks. For an otc sleep aidI, I like Benadryl or unisom (diphenhydramine)

 
Jefferson the Caregiver said:
You are ridiculous.  Not that you are wrong but just that you don't care about anything other than money.  No advice to give you, sorry that your life is so bad.
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First off, you don"t know Jack about what other people care about, so don't project crap about other people.  The economics is an important aspect which must properly be taken into account to maximize the response.  There is a huge human toll to pay in terms of stress, anxiety, depression, poverty, losing health care, crime, drug abuse, hunger that goes along with a big economic downturn.  Going into a massive shutdown is not a sustainable strategy. 

Currently we only have 0.000006 percent of the population infected.  The chances of you getting the virus from going to a restaurant is lottery-like.  This may not the best time to be rolling out such an economically costly tactic. 

At this time more measured and targeted tactics are much more sustainable.  A well-thought out strategy which an executable plan over the entire crisis is what is needed.  Not a bunch of seat of the pants type of decision-making which will crash into a wall in a few weeks which because they are impossible to maintain.  

 
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jon_mx said:
First off, you don"t know Jack about what other people care about, so don't project crap about other people.  The economics is an important aspect which must properly be taken into account to maximize the response.  There is a huge human toll to pay in terms of stress, anxiety, depression, poverty, losing health care, crime, drug abuse, hunger that goes along with a big economic downturn.  Going into a massive shutdown is not a sustainable strategy. 

Currently we only have 0.000006 percent of the population infected.  The chances of you getting the virus from going to a restaurant is lottery-like.  This may not the best time to be rolling out such an economically costly tactic. 

At this time more measured and targeted tactics are much more sustainable.  A well-thought out strategy which an executable plan over the entire crisis is what is needed.  Not a bunch of seat of the pants type of decision-making which will crash into a wall in a few weeks which because they are impossible to maintain.  
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How do you know that only .000006 percent is infected? I don't think anyone knows. I've seen it said that if we have community transmitted cases, that means we have 1% infected. Still a low chance but much higher than if we just assume only the announced cases are the true infected population.

 
we have 72 reported cases in BC 

here in lower mainland ( Vancouver and 20 other municipalities ) which is 60% of the population in the province

14 day voluntary quarantine for any international travel includes doing a milk and gas run into WA
250 can be largest turnout  anywhere
casinos closed at midnight for the foreseeable future
ski hills close tomorrow for a week -- will be longer imo

spring break is on now but universities are going online when it ends and no word yet on what the schools will due but most likely 2-3 weeks afterwards 
concerts and sporting events cancelled 
4 municipalities ( the 2 largest ) closed all their faculties starting tomorrow , others will follow tomorrow  

what I assume will happen this week for closures
movie theatres
daycares 

2 groceries stores I went to tonight were cleared out of cleaning supplies , tp , pasta , rice and chicken 

 my other educated guesses on what will change 
250 will go down to 50
restaurants and stores will be closed by the weekend 
the Canadian government will stop all international travel except for work and goods 
provinces will limit flow of people between them as well ( 2 weeks away from this is my guess)  

 
jon_mx said:
Currently we only have 0.000006 percent of the population infected.  The chances of you getting the virus from going to a restaurant is lottery-like.  This may not the best time to be rolling out such an economically costly tactic. 
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IMO you are operating with horribly flawed data. You know it and I know it. No need to play coy with the numbers. 

Try again with a quarter million cases infected, a FAR more likely number at this point. Yes, still unlikely but no way near "lottery like". Particularly when dealing with a Ro of ~3. 
 

 
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jon_mx said:
First off, you don"t know Jack about what other people care about, so don't project crap about other people.  The economics is an important aspect which must properly be taken into account to maximize the response.  There is a huge human toll to pay in terms of stress, anxiety, depression, poverty, losing health care, crime, drug abuse, hunger that goes along with a big economic downturn.  Going into a massive shutdown is not a sustainable strategy. 

Currently we only have 0.000006 percent of the population infected.  The chances of you getting the virus from going to a restaurant is lottery-like.  This may not the best time to be rolling out such an economically costly tactic. 

At this time more measured and targeted tactics are much more sustainable.  A well-thought out strategy which an executable plan over the entire crisis is what is needed.  Not a bunch of seat of the pants type of decision-making which will crash into a wall in a few weeks which because they are impossible to maintain.  
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This is what we needed in January, but instead we had 15 cases, almost to zero and not to worry about it because of a hunch. Now we have to do what we have to do, but look at what UK is facing right now, we don’t want to be there. Or Italy. And we are heading that way.

 
cap'n grunge said:
How do you know that only .000006 percent is infected? I don't think anyone knows. I've seen it said that if we have community transmitted cases, that means we have 1% infected. Still a low chance but much higher than if we just assume only the announced cases are the true infected population.
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We have a handle on the magnitude simply by the number of deaths which are pretty well known.  Could the number of infected by 2 to 3 times more, sure.  Could it be 10 times more, I don't think that is possible.  

 
msommer said:
Two days ago it was wash your hands, use a mask, protect high risk people (but apparently didn't want to define who that were). Now it's "thin the herd for the economy"
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Stop completely lying about points.  Someone made a point about the economic consequences of the death toll by not doing anything, and I countered it.  I did not advocate any such policy.  Quite being so Trump-like in more ways than just lying.  

 
This is why this place can suck sometimes.  Zero self-policing when the mob starts swarming with the lies and spin and attacks.  

 
jon_mx said:
Stop completely lying about points.  Someone made a point about the economic consequences of the death toll by not doing anything, and I countered it.  I did not advocate any such policy.  Quite being so Trump-like in more ways than just lying.  
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Duuude. Stop digging

Our efforts should be on washing hands, wearing masks, producing tests, and protecting high-risk people.  College students are not the danger crowd.  Shutting down classes, cancelling games is not going to help.  College kids are going to interact and be active regardless.   Manage activities which expose high risk people.
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So, I've struck out your suggestions that are not about what to do but about what shouldn't have to be done.

1. Washing hands - currently being emphasized, so not really assisting

2. Wearing masks - masks have been sold out and medical personnel may be running short. I believe masks currently are produced primarily in Asia (China). Even if they could be had in quantities for the American population, it will take time for them to get here (Do you wish to go deeper into this topic?) thus this is not practical now and offers no relief

3. Producing tests - Easy to say (Mike Pence said it recently, but since then no relief in the testing regimen) apparantly in progress, thus not really adding to the list of solutions

4. Protecting high risk people - this is the first new suggestion so let's look at that. What is high risk? 
    Data from Worldo'meters linked here
We can't really use the death rate all cases, particularly in the US since there is lack of testing. The only death rate on confirmed cases we have is  for 80+ y.o. with is 48% higher than death rate on all cases. Let's say we assume 40% on top of all cases for 70+, 35% for 60+, 30% for 50+ etc that gives us death rates as follows:

80+ 21.9%, 70+ 11.2% 60+ 4.9% 50+ 1.7% 40+ 0.5% (this is with all comorbidities from the rest of the world baked in)

There are approximately 42 million people in the US aged 50-59 (about 1m fewer men than women), 37m 60-69 (1m fewer men than women), 22m 70-79 (2m more w than m), 12.5m 80+ (2.5m more w than m)

In addition, death rate is 50% higher for men than women

So who on the basis of the above numbers should we protect - who are the high risk people? How should we protect them? What does success at this protection look like? What cost is acceptable for this protection?
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