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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (5 Viewers)

02:25:   202 new cases in Shandong province, China. All but 2 of them are at a prison, where a total of 207 cases have been confirmed, including 200 prisoners and 7 officers.

 
I hope you guys are watching the dr John Campbell and medcram youtube channels.  Very interesting stuff the last two days.  Namely Chinese do believe it’s confirmed airborne and because of that it actually puts the mystery poo fog in play given how it’s been transmitted in otherwise isolated apartment building and on the cruise ship potentially too.  

 
Mr. Ham said:
This is exactly right. At some point there will be an acknowledgment that it’s out there, and can’t be isolated and tracked. When, I have no idea. When that occurs, it’ll be a difficult psychological barrier where people have to decide to what degree we interrupt normal life. I don’t expect the government or media will encourage major changes to lifestyle, but I also think such changes would be at least until a vaccine is commercially ready. Even if it gets mitigated by the Summer months, this thing is sure to come roaring back next Fall/Winter. So yes, it’s a stalling game until vaccine plus proven treatments create a sense of manageability. I think we’re saddled with this virus ongoing.
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I’ll be shocked if a safe, effective vaccine is available before this blows up and runs its course this season. I know trials are starting, but vaccine development doesn’t happen overnight. 

 
bradyfan said:
I think these 10 Pathogen Treatment Centers have negative pressure rooms used to treat coronavirus patients:

  1. Massachusetts General Hospital in Boston, Massachusetts
  2. NYC Health + Hospitals/Bellevue, New York, New York
  3. Johns Hopkins Hospital, Baltimore, Maryland
  4. Emory University Hospital and Children’s Healthcare of Atlanta/Egleston Children’s Hospital, Atlanta, Georgia
  5. University of Minnesota Medical Center, Minneapolis, Minnesota
  6. University of Texas Medical Branch at Galveston, Galveston, Texas
  7. Nebraska Medicine - University of Nebraska Medical Center, Omaha, Nebraska
  8. Denver Health Medical Center, Denver, Colorado
  9. Cedars-Sinai Medical Center, Los Angeles, California
  10. Providence Sacred Heart Medical Center and Children’s Hospital, Spokane, Washington
There are probably more but you’ll have to search for your own local area.
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Huh? Pretty much every medium-large hospital (and some small ones) has negative pressure rooms. Same type of room used for patients with active TB.

 
Qom is dry and cool this time of year.  It has an average high temperature of 53 degrees Fahrenheit in February.  Since Coronavirus thrives in cool and dry conditions, more Middle Eastern cities could get hit hard.

 
Terminalxylem said:
Huh? Pretty much every medium-large hospital (and some small ones) has negative pressure rooms. Same type of room used for patients with active TB.
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There’s even such a thing as an ad hoc negative pressure room fashioned from a regular hospital room. The NIH Clinical Center in Bethesda, MD fabricated such a room in 1969 to help leukemia patients avoid infections after chemo weakened their immune systems.

 
San Antonio's confirmed case was housed 6 miles from my house. They have since moved them to another hospital but refuse to say where in the name of patient privacy. So we have a highly infectious individual that could be housed in the same hospital as your ailing parent of child but it's the carrier's privacy they are concerned with. The mayor, along with anyone who works in or knows someone, in a hospital are fairly unhappy right now. Nothing lowers the panic level like telling a city that they have infectious folks somewhere but you don't get to know where.

 
Doug B said:
There’s even such a thing as an ad hoc negative pressure room fashioned from a regular hospital room. The NIH Clinical Center in Bethesda, MD fabricated such a room in 1969 to help leukemia patients avoid infections after chemo weakened their immune systems.
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Usually leukemics and other severely immunosuppressed patients are housed in positive pressure rooms with hepa air filtration. Positive pressure theoretically keeps the bugs out, while negative keeps them in.

 
DallasDMac said:
San Antonio's confirmed case was housed 6 miles from my house. They have since moved them to another hospital but refuse to say where in the name of patient privacy. So we have a highly infectious individual that could be housed in the same hospital as your ailing parent of child but it's the carrier's privacy they are concerned with. The mayor, along with anyone who works in or knows someone, in a hospital are fairly unhappy right now. Nothing lowers the panic level like telling a city that they have infectious folks somewhere but you don't get to know where.
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It’s unreasonable to expect hospitals to advertise what diseases their patients harbor. 

 
DallasDMac said:
San Antonio's confirmed case was housed 6 miles from my house. They have since moved them to another hospital but refuse to say where in the name of patient privacy. So we have a highly infectious individual that could be housed in the same hospital as your ailing parent of child but it's the carrier's privacy they are concerned with. The mayor, along with anyone who works in or knows someone, in a hospital are fairly unhappy right now. Nothing lowers the panic level like telling a city that they have infectious folks somewhere but you don't get to know where.
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Hospital's face pretty significant liability and administrators go to lengths to avoid hospital infections like MRSA if there is patient to patient contamination so you've got to put a little faith in the machine that a little good ol fashioned self preservation will get you good results.

 
DallasDMac said:
I think it's unreasonable to hide an untreatable and highly infectious patient in the middle of a possible pandemic too. Yet here we are. 
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So you think there is a practical way to treat coronavirus patients? Build dedicated hospitals on-demand?

You have to trust infection control measures - both for the protection of other patients and healthcare workers.

 
bradyfan said:
There are different levels of isolation, depending on the pathogen.  The ones I listed are facilities with equipments and staff capable of dealing with Ebola.  I saw the they used high-level protocol (I.e. ABCS unit and robot doctor) on the 1st patient in Washington, but it could be extra precaution when not enough was known yet about COVID19.
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There are plenty of other hospitals equipped to treat Ebola patients, too.

 
Terminalxylem said:
Usually leukemics and other severely immunosuppressed patients are housed in positive pressure rooms with hepa air filtration. Positive pressure theoretically keeps the bugs out, while negative keeps them in.
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I could easily have it reversed :bag:

But now I’m wondering if there’s such a thing as a jury-rigged “field” negative pressure room?

EDIT: Looks like HEPA filtration and careful air-sealing can also make a regular room into a negative pressure room.

https://www.hfmmagazine.com/articles/2672-retrofitting-an-existing-room-for-negative-isolation

 
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bradyfan said:
The CDC has published some guidelines and I hope relevant hospitals are preparing all their staffs. Not only medical personnel should be trained.  A hospital laundry attendant was found to be a “super spreader” during the SARS outbreak.
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Sure. All hospital personnel need to follow infection control measures. But my point was, coronavirus patients will likely be treated at most medical facilities. The idea that they should be publicly identified and corralled into a few hospitals is impractical.

 
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ffweasel said:
SW. Purchased a home about 1/2 hour commute to my wife’s hotel downtown. Looked north & north burbs, but travel time would have been too much. 
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I've been south for 15 years, but moving north next month. You in Circle C or Shady Hollow?

 
cosjobs said:
183 and Oak Knoll

Wife wants to go to Vincent's Saturday to watch NCAA basketball, if you want to join us for a beer.

(assuming you don't have COVID)
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Celebrating my soon to be 3 year old’s birthday Saturday, but thanks for the invite. Perhaps another time if/when we can get a babysitter. 
 

Virus free here so far. Although I think my wife had a bit of the cedar allergy thing not too long ago. 👎🏻

 
Cedar fever so soon? Get a netti pot and chop down any cedars in your yard. It plagues a lot of the locals here, but usually takes a few years to develop.

 
cosjobs said:
Cedar fever so soon? Get a netti pot and chop down any cedars in your yard. It plagues a lot of the locals here, but usually takes a few years to develop.
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Ahh. Probably just regular allergies then. I don’t get affected by stuff like she does. I know she does own a Neti pot. 

 
Mr. Ham said:
Oh, poor sweet ffweasel. I’ve been here going on 13 years. It was about year 4 before it kneecapped me. Every cell in your body will ache, and it’s beyond the reach of any Neti pot. 
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That’s not encouraging. 😷 I suppose it’s a trade-off for living in a nice city like Austin. 

 
culdeus said:
What evidence do we have that let's say the Omaha memorial hospital has test kits?
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Omaha may not be the best example.  They have some fantastic facilities and are currently treating 11 from the cruise ship.

It's the rural community hospitals that may be in a bind.  ETA:  I have a friend that is the DON at one of those small rural hospitals.  I will have to ask her if they have done any prep.  I know they got a couple of rooms setup around the time of the ebola scare.

 
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WDIK2 said:
Omaha may not be the best example.  They have some fantastic facilities and are currently treating 11 from the cruise ship.

It's the rural community hospitals that may be in a bind.  ETA:  I have a friend that is the DON at one of those small rural hospitals.  I will have to ask her if they have done any prep.  I know they got a couple of rooms setup around the time of the ebola scare.
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Well I mean in the sense, that yes, they are treating patients, but does even a neighboring hospital have any test kits?

 
Doug B said:
I could easily have it reversed :bag:

But now I’m wondering if there’s such a thing as a jury-rigged “field” negative pressure room?

EDIT: Looks like HEPA filtration and careful air-sealing can also make a regular room into a negative pressure room.

https://www.hfmmagazine.com/articles/2672-retrofitting-an-existing-room-for-negative-isolation
Click to expand...
People have been making temporary negative air structures for years, it's not hard to do. Are they hospital quality? That's a different discussion. The rental company I work for have thousands of air scrubbers (HEPA) that are used by all sorts of folks from asbestos abatement, mold remediation to hospital disinfection.

Mr. Ham said:
Feels like this is starting to spiral outside of China. 
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Feel like you can say this every week and not be wrong. Sorta water is wet.

 
Somewhat interesting with the prison cluster. Seems like something like this would be easy to (continue to?) hide

 
eoMMan said:
The Olympics is in Japan this summer, right?
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for now.

The backup plan seems to involve having the events played in front of no fans.  On the other hand if this is still a concern this summer, then there's really no reason to impose travel restrictions as it's eventually going to infect anyone that doesn't go into a bubble until the vax is out.

 
2 weeks ago we were at 277 "non-china" patients.

In 2 weeks that number has gone up to over 1200.  Yeah the ship had a lot to do with it, but that's not a situation that you should "write off".  People in this world spend time around other people.  That shows how easy it is to catch this thing.

My arm-chair amateur thoughts are that this is going to be very hard to stop from spreading around the world.

The good news is that 2 weeks in, so far we haven't seen spiraling mortality rates.  BUT...those numbers have started to rise the last few days.  I really think the next week will be important in that regard.  Also, people that have the corona virus now are getting great healthcare.  What happens in 6 months if your entire city has it?  

Learning how best to treat it at home is going to be key. Hoping the vaccines/medications that @chet and others have talked about will work.  

 
Things that are odd. (IMO)

  • Very few cases, and none in the US I know of where person diagnosed and they had no direct travel or contact we can trace.
  • Death rate is near zero for young people and ramps up by age.  If under 50, you can 99.9% expect to survive this no matter what.
  • Nobody can get a gosh darn read on the period where you are contagious either before or after having it
 
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culdeus said:
Things that are odd. (IMO)

  • Very few cases, and none in the US I know of where person diagnosed and they had no direct travel or contact we can trace.
  • Death rate is near zero for young people and ramps up by age.  If under 50, you can 99.9% expect to survive this no matter what.
  • Nobody can get a gosh darn read on the period where you are contagious either before or after having it
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I don't think this is true. Not only is there not enough data, there are at least a couple cases in China of doctors dying.

 
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It does appear elderly ones are more susceptible, but while there are over 1k active cases, i think it's a bit early to say 99.9%.  Especially if this becomes widespread and the ability to get excellent healthcare decreases.

 
shader said:
I don't think this is true. Not only is there not enough data, there are at least a couple cases in China of doctors dying.
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The first guy who was a reporter was a doctor and he was 34 and died.

It was pointed out earlier that this may have been due to an increased viral load and possibly in his case delayed treatment from onset...

But my main issue is that the country this originated in is one that does not release valid data unless they want to.  IF they're trying to prevent panic in a population of over a billion, they may have good reason to suppress terrible news.

As other countries have more visibility into the trend of the virus, and can independently verify the transmission rate, death rate, etc...I will be taking Chinese numbers with a grain of salt.

 
adonis said:
The first guy who was a reporter was a doctor and he was 34 and died.

It was pointed out earlier that this may have been due to an increased viral load and possibly in his case delayed treatment from onset...

But my main issue is that the country this originated in is one that does not release valid data unless they want to.  IF they're trying to prevent panic in a population of over a billion, they may have good reason to suppress terrible news.

As other countries have more visibility into the trend of the virus, and can independently verify the transmission rate, death rate, etc...I will be taking Chinese numbers with a grain of salt.
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I have zero respect for a single number China puts out there.  Judging the 11-15 deaths outside China, it still appears its mostly older people, but it’s far too early to put any numbers on it with this sample size. 

 
Mr. Ham said:
Wonder what odds are sxsw happens in Austin starting March 13. If there a substantial uptick, I can’t imagine there won’t be lots of clamoring to cancel an international tech, movie and music festival where people stand shoulder to shoulder. No serious discussion of canceling now, but we’re 3 weeks out and I don’t expect things to get better between now and then. 

At minimum there must be a 25% chance it’s going to get nixed.

Was with local friends last night, and general consensus is not positive for hosting this year. Every one of my friends has concerns and is at least mildly uncomfortable about its arrival.
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I can't imagine SXSW is going to be cancelled unless something really dramatic happens in the next month.

 
Mr. Ham said:
I wouldn’t assume a cataclysm has to happen before the show is threatened.

As discussed earlier, I was talking to my former boss a week or so before Mobile World Congress. Our company hadn’t pulled out, and I asked her if she was going. She said no, and that most the people she knew that had planned to go, including herself, were told by clients they weren’t going, and pulled out on their own discretion. By this point, Facebook, Intel, and several others had pulled out. Organizing body eventually decided it was too big a risk.

There’s a similar commercial aspect to the Interactive part of the conference, and if there are 2-3 more doubling of cases outside of China as is likely in the next 2-3 weeks, I imagine a combo of people deciding not to go and employees opting out will cause strain. Then you have to factor that half of the conference is entertainment, which means crowds in close quarters, and an easier decision for many to opt out.
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zero chance 

 
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