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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread

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1 minute ago, facook said:

I have been thinking some folks in here are way over-reacting, but this guy doesn't seem to think so.  He predicts everyone in US has it by July 4th weekend.  I know this is just more ammo for Mr. Ham and whoever else, but can someone smarter than me please dig into this and tell me he's full of poop?  I don't understand it enough to be able to dismiss it based on math/science.

I don’t trust any predictions right now, no matter how smart the people giving them are, because I don’t believe there is enough solid data to make those predictions. 
 

We just don’t have solid data on this yet, because China’s numbers can’t be trusted. Until that happens, who knows what the truth is.

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49 minutes ago, [icon] said:

Unless it's a mandated self-quarantine with a 24hr curfew in place, like what tens of millions of Chinese are living under right now. 

Forgive me if I don't jump at the chance to be dependent on the government to efficiently delivery my food and water :lol: 

I don't think a 24 hour curfew would work here.  By all means, prep away.  I am not saying don't do that, I'm saying that everyone should be prepping at least a little bit.  You don't want to be the guy going to the store only to find single-ply TP available for your wife and kids...I'd rather be the guy with a few boxes of the Kleenex infused with Vicks.

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3 minutes ago, facook said:

I have been thinking some folks in here are way over-reacting, but this guy doesn't seem to think so.  He predicts everyone in US has it by July 4th weekend.  I know this is just more ammo for Mr. Ham and whoever else, but can someone smarter than me please dig into this and tell me he's full of poop?  I don't understand it enough to be able to dismiss it based on math/science.

He's assuming a fixed virus burnout rate, and while someone is out there reporting it won't burnout by the summer I find that somewhat hard to believe.

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4 minutes ago, facook said:

I have been thinking some folks in here are way over-reacting, but this guy doesn't seem to think so.  He predicts everyone in US has it by July 4th weekend.  I know this is just more ammo for Mr. Ham and whoever else, but can someone smarter than me please dig into this and tell me he's full of poop?  I don't understand it enough to be able to dismiss it based on math/science.

Its a guy named Andy who named his business Andology.  That tells me almost everything I need to know.  Well guess what, Scoresology says we're all going to be just fine.  

 

 

 

 

… I think.

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6 minutes ago, facook said:

I have been thinking some folks in here are way over-reacting, but this guy doesn't seem to think so.  He predicts everyone in US has it by July 4th weekend.  I know this is just more ammo for Mr. Ham and whoever else, but can someone smarter than me please dig into this and tell me he's full of poop?  I don't understand it enough to be able to dismiss it based on math/science.

(not aimed at facook)

Don't even have to look at his site. All panic and all hypebole from people who "really have the answers!", every time, is B.S.

Any rando can put up a web site like that. If he has the goods on this, contact authorities, get it to the CDC and make a case. It's not up to the world at large to disprove your B.S., Andy.

Without even looking at his site, I'll stand this.

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Monty Python skit if written today:

City Councilman: “8th Millennial Meeting of the Council on the Human Condition will come to order, the honorable God presiding. Item 1 on the agenda, revisiting of the measures to enforce original sin.”

God: “What is this business?”

City Councilman: “It’s just... things have come a long way since the Garden of Eden, sir. 8 millennium of observing the natural order of your creation has led the Council to conclude that perhaps measures were a little Draconian. Seems a bit harsh to have taken eternal paradise away.”

City Councilman 2: “What he means to say, is apples are a tasty and rather ubiquitous fruit, quite hard to resist, and studies have shown quite nutritious...”

City Councilman 1: “‘An Apple a day keeps the doctor away,’ they say, sir. Seems a little harsh to make that the source of eternal damnation.”

God: “Seems I gave them a fairly simple test of discipline and reverence as fair exchange for the bounty I bestowed. What are you saying?”

City Councilman 2: “Turns out these are rather complicated creatures sir, and while the Council’s study conducted over several centuries has recently concluded, that while the test itself was certainly a fair consideration...”

City Councilman 1: “The Council believes some order of test is warranted to prove they can at least minimally keep their #### together...”

City Councilman 2: “Perhaps it was a bit unrealistic to expect an apple is the thing, sir.”

God: “Then what would you suggest?”

City Councilman 1: “The city has recommended pangolins, sir.”

God: “Pangolins? What’s a pangolin?”

City Councilman 1: “We’re not quite sure, sir.”

City Councilman 2: “We are however quite sure the people should be able to refrain from eating them.”

City Councilman 1: “You’d have to be a rite #### to eat a pangolin.”

City Councilman 2: “And, they have a scaly shell, apparently. That ought to serve as an effective deterrent, I think.”

City Councilman 1: “One person eats a pangolin, you should cast the whole lot of them into the sea.”

God: “This is the determination of the Council?”

City Councilman 1: “Respectfully, Sir.”

God: “All in favor?”

[All say “aye.”]

Councilman 1: “Item 2. Reconsideration of ordinances relating to bestiality with wombats and other quadrupedal marsupials.”

 

Edited by Mr. Ham
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16 minutes ago, TheIronSheik said:

Does any of that actually kill it?  Or does it just kill the person and then the death doesn't count towards the virus totals?

Diluted bleach is great for disinfecting hard surfaces. I highly doubt spraying it into the air does anything, though.

Decon7 is also made for surface disinfection, not disinfecting the air.

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Quote

 

The coronavirus epidemic could spread to about two-thirds of the world’s population if it cannot be controlled, according to Hong Kong’s leading public health epidemiologist.

His warning came after the head of the World Health Organization (WHO) said recent cases of coronavirus patients who had never visited China could be the “tip of the iceberg”.

Prof Gabriel Leung, the chair of public health medicine at Hong Kong University, said the overriding question was to figure out the size and shape of the iceberg. Most experts thought that each person infected would go on to transmit the virus to about 2.5 other people. That gave an “attack rate” of 60-80%.

“Sixty per cent of the world’s population is an awfully big number,” Leung told the Guardian in London, en route to an expert meeting at the WHO in Geneva on Tuesday.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/11/coronavirus-expert-warns-infection-could-reach-60-of-worlds-population

Quote

The number of confirmed cases of the Wuhan coronavirus have continued to surge inside China, sickening tens of thousands, with a death toll of more than 1,000. But outside the Asian giant the numbers remain a fraction of that, a trend Harvard’s Marc Lipsitch views with suspicion. Lipsitch thinks it is just a matter of time before the virus spreads widely internationally, which means nations so far only lightly hit should prepare for its eventual arrival in force and what may seem like the worst flu season in modern times. Lipsitch, professor of epidemiology at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health and head of the School’s Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics, talked to the Gazette about recent developments in the outbreak and provided a look ahead.

https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2020/02/harvard-expert-says-coronavirus-likely-just-gathering-steam/

These are pretty legit sources.   

 

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52 minutes ago, facook said:

I have been thinking some folks in here are way over-reacting, but this guy doesn't seem to think so.  He predicts everyone in US has it by July 4th weekend.  I know this is just more ammo for Mr. Ham and whoever else, but can someone smarter than me please dig into this and tell me he's full of poop?  I don't understand it enough to be able to dismiss it based on math/science.

Doesn’t FLu season go only through March or April? How would this thing be here in July. 

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13 minutes ago, Capella said:

Doesn’t FLu season go only through March or April? How would this thing be here in July. 

Because one guy said it would in a non peer reviewed paper.  

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Is this virus like the flu where it has a season?  I thought it was more like Measels.

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I meant to quote an earlier post talking about the Tokyo marathon and if it would happen. I'm not sure about that, but they already moved the Sevens Rugby tournament from April to the Fall, and as stated in the article, the F1 race in Shanghai, also schedulef for April, has been postponed.

https://www.bbc.com/sport/rugby-union/51488251

I just started watching the MedCram update for today:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wlbM6VVkVZM

Edited by jplvr

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4 minutes ago, TheIronSheik said:

Is this virus like the flu where it has a season?  I thought it was more like Measels.

I think I read that it's the kind of virus that can't live in hot weather or something.

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7 minutes ago, Scoresman said:

I think I read that it's the kind of virus that can't live in hot weather or something.

Well I’m straight. Gl everybody 

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So the whitehouse just tweeted there are another 150k cases that aren't reported but considered confirmed, or was this leaked. Often times it's hard to know.

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1 hour ago, jplvr said:

I meant to quote an earlier post talking about the Tokyo marathon and if it would happen. I'm not sure about that, but they already moved the Sevens Rugby tournament from April to the Fall, and as stated in the article, the F1 race in Shanghai, also schedulef for April, has been postponed.

https://www.bbc.com/sport/rugby-union/51488251

I just started watching the MedCram update for today:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wlbM6VVkVZM

Tokyo really went over the top prepping for these Olympics. Billions upon billions. As much as canceling the marathon does not equal cancelling the Olympics, I’m sure major efforts will go into not sending that message.

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33 minutes ago, culdeus said:

So the whitehouse just tweeted there are another 150k cases that aren't reported but considered confirmed, or was this leaked. Often times it's hard to know.

Not sure if true or not. But I've been waiting for the other shoe to drop since last night. My theory is that WHO made China update the numbers for Wuhan, but held back the rest of province updates. The theory goes on thinking that they held those numbers back since they were massively under reported from the word go. That type of number from whitehouse would help explain some of the Chinese Gov't recent actions.

 

I am hoping I'm full of it.

Edited by IrishTwinkie

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Since we lose 25% of our cruise payment If we cancel after next week, we decided to eat the $750 cost of insurance we already paid and cancel the June Disney Mediterranean cruise. Saves us about $3k vs. if we were to cancel later. Don’t think this is a good year for a cruise. In a month or two, we’ll look at the overall situation and revisit vacation plans. Wife is planning to take kids for two weeks to Disney World in May, and two weeks in Ireland in July. Not cancelling any of that — yet. I was already shaky about going on a cruise given our history, so made the decision that no matter how this breaks I’m not comfortable.

Edited by Mr. Ham

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48 minutes ago, culdeus said:

So the whitehouse just tweeted there are another 150k cases that aren't reported but considered confirmed, or was this leaked. Often times it's hard to know.

Ah yes, White House tweets. These days, a beacon of truth and reliability. 

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Imperial College, with several caveats related to data quality, estimates Case Fatality Rate (CFR) in Wuhan at 18%. Outside of Mainland China it’s estimated at 1.2 - 5.4%.

“CFRs seen in individual countries will vary depending on the sensitivity of different surveillance systems to detect cases of differing levels of severity and the clinical care offered to severely ill cases. All CFR estimates should be viewed cautiously at the current time as the sensitivity of surveillance of both deaths and cases in mainland China is unclear. Furthermore, all estimates rely on limited data on the typical time intervals from symptom onset to death or recovery which influences the CFR estimates.”

- Could also indicate that the disease hasn’t yet experienced the time intervals seen in Wuhan in other places.

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-2019-nCoV-severity-10-02-2020.pdf

Edited by Mr. Ham

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There are some tremendous deals on cruises.  There are 7 day cruises for as little as $123.  A 20 day cruise from Singapore to Dubai for $461.  You might die but you'll have memories that last a lifetime however short that is.  The following site is the place where all of the cruise ships post their best prices.  You need to sign in to see the list but I've always just typed in joe@hotmail dot com and it lets me in.

 https://www.vacationstogo.com/ticker.cfm?t=y

Edited by Don Hutson

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$123 and the lysteria comes at no extra charge!!

Edited by Scoresman

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16 hours ago, bradyfan said:

China CDC Situation Report on Feb-12 
31 Provinces & XPCC 
  Suspected: 13435 (+2807
  Confirmed: 59804 (+15152) includes 13332 clinical diagnosis cases
  Severe: 8030 (-174
  Dead: 1367 (+254
  Recovered: 5911 (+1171
Hong Kong - Confirmed: 50 (Dead: 1, Recovered: 1) 
Macau - Confirmed: 10 (Recovered: 2) 
Taiwan - Confirmed: 18 (Recovered: 1)

China CDC Situation Report on Feb-13
31 Provinces & XPCC
  Suspected: 10109 (+2450)
  Confirmed: 63851 (+5090)
  Severe: 10204 (+2174)
  Dead: 1380 (+121) - 108 duplicates subtracted from total
  Recovered: 6723 (+1081)
Hong Kong - Confirmed: 53 (Dead: 1, Recovered: 1)
Macau - Confirmed: 10 (Recovered: 3)
Taiwan - Confirmed: 18 (Recovered: 1)

Edited by bradyfan

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3 hours ago, Don Hutson said:

There are some tremendous deals on cruises.  There are 7 day cruises for as little as $123.  A 20 day cruise from Singapore to Dubai for $461.  You might die but you'll have memories that last a lifetime.  The following site is the place where all of the cruise ships post their best prices.  You need to sign in to see the list but I've always just typed in joe@hotmail dot com and it lets me in.

 https://www.vacationstogo.com/ticker.cfm?t=y

Whoa. That site Is incredible. 
 

We are planning a family 10 day southern Caribbean on Celebrity in November and that site could cut costs by over half :eek: 

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7 minutes ago, [icon] said:

Whoa. That site Is incredible. 
 

We are planning a family 10 day southern Caribbean on Celebrity in November and that site could cut costs by over half :eek: 

I've been going to the site for over 20 years.  My guess is that they existed before the World Wide Web existed.  Since they sell cruises at the lowest price, they probably give minimal/poor customer service.  

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9 hours ago, Capella said:

Doesn’t FLu season go only through March or April? How would this thing be here in July. 

You can still get the flu out of “season.”

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2 hours ago, Don Hutson said:

I've been going to the site for over 20 years.  My guess is that they existed before the World Wide Web existed.  Since they sell cruises at the lowest price, they probably give minimal/poor customer service.  

And also probably their service isn’t great in that In exchange for your money they’re putting you on a large metal water prison for a week with thousands of dirty strangers.

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16 hours ago, [icon] said:

@Aaron Rudnicki I'm down to grab the keys if folks want. I've been trying to keep the thread quite up to date. 

FREE BIG LEAGUE CHEW!!!!

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You would have expected to see more news out of India if things were in the weeds there. 

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27 minutes ago, culdeus said:

You would have expected to see more news out of India if things were in the weeds there. 

The Tibetan Plateau, Hindu Kush mountains, and the Himalayas comprise a formidable physical barrier to human crossings. Not to mention hundreds of miles of sparsely-populated area that would naturally slow or halt disease spread.

That makes me wonder if pre-modern plagues and diseases ever really passed between India and China? Over land, anyway?

EDIT:

The famous Black Death in the 1300s (bubonic plague) started in China and swept westwards across Eurasia to the Atlantic Ocean. North Africa, the eastern Mediterranean coast, and the Arabian Peninsula were also affected. But that particular plague never made it to India.

Another, lesser bubonic plague epidemic started in the mid-1800s in China. By the 1890s, British ships sailing out of Hong Kong spread this plague to India. Over 22 million people in British India succumbed to the plague by 1930.

Edited by Doug B

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1 hour ago, Doug B said:

The famous Black Death in the 1300s (bubonic plague) started in China and swept westwards across Eurasia to the Atlantic Ocean. North Africa, the eastern Mediterranean coast, and the Arabian Peninsula were also affected. But that particular plague never made it to India.

Another, lesser bubonic plague epidemic started in the mid-1800s in China. By the 1890s, British ships sailing out of Hong Kong spread this plague to India. Over 22 million people in British India succumbed to the plague by 1930.

Not to take away from the mortality of plague because lets be honest, it's HOF level and who am I to judge but...but, I don't think the areoplane was around in the 1300's and probably in very limited use in that part of the world in late 1800's.

I get what you're saying and you make a valid point. I think we have the ability to move larger quantities of people, from all over the world much easier today than back in 'aught 9 thus making the transmission a little easier than in the day of the plague.

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Points granted, beer30. I was just making a point that the shared China/India/Nepal border area, despite its size, is not itself hospitable to the spread of pathogens.

Mongolia has a very long land border with China -- but again, there are vast sparsely populated areas between Wuhan and Ulaanbaatar (Mongolia's capital).

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16 minutes ago, beer 30 said:

Not to take away from the mortality of plague because lets be honest, it's HOF level and who am I to judge but...but, I don't think the areoplane was around in the 1300's and probably in very limited use in that part of the world in late 1800's.

I get what you're saying and you make a valid point. I think we have the ability to move larger quantities of people, from all over the world much easier today than back in 'aught 9 thus making the transmission a little easier than in the day of the plague.

I've seen people say that SARS spread less because the timeframe involved people were only travelling to areas of China which were not affected.  Today is quite different.  

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There's been some curiosity in this thread about the upcoming Tokyo Marathon. Here is a little news:

Quote

 

China residents asked to skip Tokyo Marathon

Organizers of the Tokyo Marathon are asking registered runners residing in China to refrain from joining in this year's event due to the outbreak of the new coronavirus.

A total of around 38,000 runners are expected to participate in the full marathon or in the 10-kilometer race on March 1. About 1,800 of them are living in China.

 

 

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16 minutes ago, Doug B said:

Ulaanbaatar (Mongolia's capital).

Learn something everyday, thanks :thumbup:

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12 hours ago, Henry Ford said:

You can still get the flu out of “season.”

But your b!tch can only get pregnant in season.

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3 hours ago, Doug B said:

The famous Black Death in the 1300s (bubonic plague) started in China and swept westwards across Eurasia to the Atlantic Ocean. North Africa, the eastern Mediterranean coast, and the Arabian Peninsula were also affected. But that particular plague never made it to India.

Origins of the Black Death have been studied and debated for centuries, but the general belief these days is that it originated in central Asia (near Kyrgyzstan). And India was certainly infected, but sources differ as to whether they got it from central Asia, from China, or from European merchants many years after it had spread.

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3 hours ago, Doug B said:

The Tibetan Plateau, Hindu Kush mountains, and the Himalayas comprise a formidable physical barrier to human crossings. Not to mention hundreds of miles of sparsely-populated area that would naturally slow or halt disease spread.

That makes me wonder if pre-modern plagues and diseases ever really passed between India and China? Over land, anyway?

EDIT:

The famous Black Death in the 1300s (bubonic plague) started in China and swept westwards across Eurasia to the Atlantic Ocean. North Africa, the eastern Mediterranean coast, and the Arabian Peninsula were also affected. But that particular plague never made it to India.

Another, lesser bubonic plague epidemic started in the mid-1800s in China. By the 1890s, British ships sailing out of Hong Kong spread this plague to India. Over 22 million people in British India succumbed to the plague by 1930.

Once again....China.
 

China, China, China. All crap comes from China. Time to pull it together, guys.

Signed,

The rest of the world 

Edited by Hugh Jass

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9 minutes ago, Hugh Jass said:

Once again....China.
 

China, China, China. All crap comes from China. Time to pull it together, guys.

Signed,

The rest of the world 

I have a completely made up theory that this is somehow related to the effects pet dogs have on the immune system. If not for dogs these things would spring up everywhere. 

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6 minutes ago, Henry Ford said:

I have a completely made up theory that this is somehow related to the effects pet dogs have on the immune system. If not for dogs these things would spring up everywhere. 

:subscribe: 👍🏻

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WHO providing more confidence that this virus is less hard on kids in their daily.   So much so that Vietnam is closing all schools because kids can be a carrier and not show anything more than a sniffle.  

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4 minutes ago, Keerock said:
Quote

The calf was fathered by Otis

:oldunsure:

 

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5 minutes ago, Keerock said:

"The calf was fathered by Otis, a male hippo from East Africa who arrived at the San Diego Zoo in 2009, specifically to breed with Funani."   Damn, I knew @Otis was always trying to lose weight, never realized he is an actual hippo.

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Seems like that would be more of a job for Christo.

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7 hours ago, Doug B said:

shared China/India border

Fake news

 

Edited by Don Hutson

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