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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (17 Viewers)

I paid $3.39 for 50 disposable face masks after the Swine Flu.  Now they are getting restocked on Amazon (to be shipped in 1-3 weeks) but the price went up many times (as much as $40-50).  I checked CVS & Walgreen just now and they are out of stock in branches near me.  I did not check Walmart or hardware/auto stores.

BTW, I have total that 1 box of 50 and not buy more for COVID-19.  I did restock some expired OTC medication such as Advil, NyQuil, etc.
A big increase in price. I wonder if that will happen to the cost of a vaccine, once one is approved. It takes time to get manufacturing up to speed.

I have about 10 discarded fog-free surgical masks from a terminated clinical drug trial. The masks were to be used for lumbar puncture procedures.

I remember the 2001 anthrax scare led to scarcity of masks. 

 
Washington Post article on how the Coronavirus kills people.  The interesting thing is that it matches the mechanism of action almost exactly that our CEO used to design design a potential treatment. Final paperwork being signed and 50-person trial slated to start soon.

 
jvdesigns2002 said:
What does that have to do with anything that I wrote?   You think that a door locked from the outside  is a 100% guarantee that it can’t spread?   Quarantines are not full proof—-and putting a bunch of infected people in the very middle of a densely populated area is mind numbingly stupid in my opinion. This country is lucky enough to have ample medical facilities throughout it. Many of them are in sparsely populated areas that are more isolated in nature.  Those facilities should be used first before anyone considers putting them near large population areas. 
We don’t have ample medical facilities, nor transportation to quarantine a potentially large group of people.

jvdesigns2002 said:
I prefer not to put hundreds of thousands of people at risk of getting sick based on “should be enough”.   We can agree to disagree. If people are sick with a disease that requires they be isolated—why not put them in a location that is more isolated from a large population?  It’s pretty simple.  I’d rather move a handful of medical professionals to the sick as opposed to bringing the sick to close proximity of the masses. 
In general, larger, more state-of-the-art facilities tend to be in populous cities.

jvdesigns2002 said:
They should absolutely disclose that if it is in the name of public health.   They routinely advertise places where people may have been exposed to measles.  Places where people could be exposed to hepatitis b are disclosed.  As long as specific names of patients and medical records are kept confidential—nobody should be offended by this. 
People are notified of a potential exposure in an outbreak setting. This only occurs when close contact with the infected individual(s) has occurred. Being a patient in the same hospital doesn’t qualify.

 
bradyfan said:
California, Nebraska and Illinois are the only U.S. states that can currently test for coronavirus, the Association of Public Health Laboratories (APHL) told Reuters on Friday.

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) last week said some of the testing kits sent to U.S. states and at least 30 countries produced “inconclusive” results due to a flawed component and the CDC planned to send replacement materials to make the kits work. 
Link
Looks like we need to ship everyone with cold symptoms to those three states. 

 
jvdesigns2002 said:
There are lots of high tech medical facilities in sparsely populated areas.   Look at military installations.  There are lots of them that have very high tech medical facilities that are isolated from areas of dense population.   There are plenty of them here in California.  And it’s not that i don’t want it in my backyard.  They shouldn’t be put in any densely populated area—whether its here, New York, Dallas, London, Tokyo, Chicago, Tehran. It’s common sense that you don’t bring the disease to where the masses are. Even with precaution—you have to look at the risk versus reward.  If there is one mistake and this thing breaks out in a place like Los Angeles or New York—the results could be catastrophic. I’m not sure how this is hard to understand.  Besides that—are you familiar with the Fairview developmental center?  It’s not a complete medical facility. Its mainly used for people with mental disease.
It’s math that communicable diseases tend to cluster in populated areas. And I’ll reiterate, there aren’t plenty of medical facilities equipped to provide care for the sickest coronavirus patients, nor are there enough ambulances to be shuttling large groups of people with common symptoms to designated testing and treatment centers.

 
but has an epidemic ever manifest as you fear in the United States with a disease escaping a hosptial and impacting the local geographical area (or broader one)?
No, but that's likely because there aren't that many novel infectious diseases that come about, or at least not deadly ones. Influenza, measles, and smallpox predate modern medicine. Only MERS and SARS come to mind.

Btw, my wife has a doctorate in public health and works at a top school of public health here in the US. Mostly I listen to her, but even she's not an expert in infectious diseases.

 
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No, but that's likely because there aren't that many novel infectious diseases that come about, or at least not deadly ones. Influenza, measles, and smallpox predate modern medicine. Only MERS and SARS come to mind.

Btw, my wife has a doctorate in public health and works at a top school of public health here in the US.
Legionaires, hantavirus, ebola, swine then avian flu, E Coli 057:H7, West Nile, community MRSA, etc. Plus re-emergence of old diseases like measles, anthrax. There are plenty of recent infectious threats.

 
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Legionaires, hantavirus, ebola, swine then avian flu, E Coli 057:H7, West Nile, etc. Plus re-emergence of old diseases like measles, anthrax. There are plenty of recent infectious threats.
Good point. Lots of infectious diseases or there. Some novel, some not. But none of those have turned into global pandemic. And we are right on the cusp of that with COVID-19.

 
It’s math that communicable diseases tend to cluster in populated areas. And I’ll reiterate, there aren’t plenty of medical facilities equipped to provide care for the sickest coronavirus patients, nor are there enough ambulances to be shuttling large groups of people with common symptoms to designated testing and treatment centers.
Did you read the article that I am responding to or are you merely responding to my quotes?  I'm not trying to be snarky--I'm legit curious.  If you read the article--the plan is that they are trying to send every person that is diagnosed as being positive for the coronavirus in california to this center in Costa Mesa.  The article clearly and transparently states that the facility is only suited for quarantine purposes only--and if any of the patients require medical care that they will be taken to regular Orange County hospitals.   Being that many people that suffer from this virus suffer from pneumonia-like symptoms within a few weeks--many patients that are infected with this disease will absolutely be transported to hospitals that already are crazy busy.  In Orange County-if you go to an emergency room--unless you are clearly in danger of dying--your typical wait could be 2-6 hours.  In this area--hospitals are bustling with patients--and this plan virtually guarantees that people outside of that developmental center will be exposed to the virus.    If that center was capable of quarantining and caring for patients--I would absolutely have a far lesser stance on this--but honestly--it seems like the vast majority of people here choose to argue with me without reading the very thing that I'm commenting about. 

 
According to AP poll, more Americans are concerned about the flu than coronavirus

A wide share of Americans express more concern about catching the flu over the new coronavirus, according to a new poll, and are moderately confident in the ability of U.S. health officials to handle emerging viruses like coronavirus.

About 4 in 10 say they are moderately worried about catching the flu, according to the poll conducted by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research, compared with 2 in 10 who are concerned about catching coronavirus. Comparable shares of Americans — roughly 2 in 10 — say they are very worried about getting coronavirus and the flu.
That will change pretty quick.

 
Anyone starting any prep at home?  Stocking up on frozen foods, or other things that prevent you from having to go outside for a long period of time?

 
Anyone starting any prep at home?  Stocking up on frozen foods, or other things that prevent you from having to go outside for a long period of time?
The first freak out will be about the medicine shortages.  

I think a universal US shutdown is even a month away even if there are 10s of thousands of cases.  

 
Anyone starting any prep at home?  Stocking up on frozen foods, or other things that prevent you from having to go outside for a long period of time?
Ham.  I'm getting closer to at least stocking up on staples as well.  If current trajectory continues next Saturday I'll pull the trigger.

 
The first freak out will be about the medicine shortages.  

I think a universal US shutdown is even a month away even if there are 10s of thousands of cases.  
As someone who lives in hurricane country, you don't need hurricane landfall to experience runs on stores.

 
No, but that's likely because there aren't that many novel infectious diseases that come about, or at least not deadly ones. Influenza, measles, and smallpox predate modern medicine. Only MERS and SARS come to mind.

Btw, my wife has a doctorate in public health and works at a top school of public health here in the US. Mostly I listen to her, but even she's not an expert in infectious diseases.
But for the sake of completeness of what we know, has it happened in America?  Has it happened in the western developed world in the last 50 years?  I truly don't know, I'm asking to learn, I haven't heard about it, but I can see how it would be possible.  In New Jersey there was a hospital where I think meningitis swept through a children's unit and 11 kids died if I'm not mistaken but these were already unfortunately compromised kids, I know in the hosptial stuff happens from time to time.  But I'm wondering about it getting out.  

People should do whatever they need to do to keep themselves and their families safe, and maintain their own peace of mind.  But lets also know the likeihood of things.  An Asteroid will one day hit us and F us up real good.  Worth investing in some kind of oversight to prevent such a scenario but I don't walk around with an umbrella on a sunny day knowing it could come and hit us.  

But I am also genuinely curious, what are your wife's thoughts as a professional in the field?

 
But I am also genuinely curious, what are your wife's thoughts as a professional in the field?
Not sure lately, as she spent the last week in Mozambique. She lands in the US tomorrow morning.  Thankfully, no cases in sub saharan Africa yet.

She sent me a tweet about the stuff in Korea, which caught her off guard.

I talked to get about 2 weeks ago about whether we should by some supplies, and she said no. I'll ask again when she returns.

 
Dallas had a crazy run on gas in advance of a hurricane that never actually made landfall and we are 200 miles inland.  I can see how things can hit the fan, but just don't see the US mindset going that way.

https://www.dallasnews.com/news/texas/2017/09/01/how-panicked-drivers-are-making-north-texas-gas-shortages-worse/
We'll see I guess. 

I have a low expectation of fellow citizens.  I've seen too much irrational behavior in possible crises...so much so that it seems the rational thing to do is be irrational early on...which is likely adding to the problem.

 
Non-China Reported Cases

2/7 - 277

2/12 - 490

2/16 - 695

2/17 - 893 reported cases - (454 on Diamond Princess) - 135 recovered - 36 serious/critical - 5 dead 

2/18 - 1,014 reported cases (542 on Diamond Princess) - 152 recovered - 39 serious/critical - 5 dead

2/19 - 1,149 reported cases (621 on Diamond Princess) - 169 recovered - 45 serious/critical - 10 dead

2/20 - 1,259 reported cases (634 on Diamond Princess) - 191 recovered - 45 serious/critical - 11 dead

2/21 - 1,525 reported cases (634 on Diamond Princess) - 209 recovered - 52 serious/critical - 15 dead

2/22 - 1,834 reported cases (634 on Diamond Princess) - 210 recovered - 66 serious/critical - 19 dead

Not the greatest update

 
Are they still on the cruise ship?  
Good question.  I'm about to stop updating the cruise ship numbers.  Some had asked for that to be broken out, but it's pretty clear that the rapid climb in the last 2 days has had nothing to do with the cruise ship so I'll leave that off in future.

 
Good question.  I'm about to stop updating the cruise ship numbers.  Some had asked for that to be broken out, but it's pretty clear that the rapid climb in the last 2 days has had nothing to do with the cruise ship so I'll leave that off in future.
I thought I saw something that only 34 people were left on the ship. Which I found interesting for a number of reasons. A) I can see feeding a ton of people, but a handful? So what is the crew up to? B) Why would anyone stay? I can't imagine not thinking that I'd be better off almost anywhere else.

 
I thought I saw something that only 34 people were left on the ship. Which I found interesting for a number of reasons. A) I can see feeding a ton of people, but a handful? So what is the crew up to? B) Why would anyone stay? I can't imagine not thinking that I'd be better off almost anywhere else.
The last I'd seen (earlier today) in the Japan Times, there were still ~300 passengers and the thousand or so crew still on there, but that could be outdated compared to what you saw.  A lot of the crew are cleaning and disinfecting now, and I believe they are under an additional quarantine before they leave.  By the way, in case it hadn't been mentioned, the crew are all receiving two months of additional pay, including approximation of their usual tips, as "hazard pay" (not sure it's been called that, but essentially).  Glad to know they'll be compensated in some way.

@shader, I know you're not going to include cruise ship numbers anymore, but I think your numbers have been off the past couple of days because there have been many reports of people who were cleared to get off the cruise ship and have now tested positive after going home in their evacuation flights.  This is in addition to the 14 that got on the US flights after testing positive.  I believe there were seven in Australia, six in Canada, a few more in the US, and at least one Japanese citizen who was allowed to leave and took a train home, only to test positive later.  I was amazed and horrified at the time that Japan let those who didn't take the evacuation flights just get off the ship without further quarantine, and it turns out that indeed that was a bad idea.

By the way, to answer the question of why anyone stayed, some (including quite a few US citizens) chose to take the chance that they would not have to be further quarantined in Japan after leaving the ship.  So instead of taking a flight home on Feb. 16-17 and then facing another 14 days of quarantine in the US, they hoped that they would be able to get off after the initial quarantine, say on Feb. 18 or 19, and then just tour around Japan or other countries until they are cleared to come back into the US.  Seems like that worked out for them, though it's not the choice I would have made.

At this point those still on the ship are likely awaiting test results.  They had to do the tests over several days, and the results take a couple of days.

 
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I can't seem to find where I read it. It could have been a trash article. It is difficult to keep track of everything. Your report is probably right. But I can't imagine that anyone would just let the passengers just go into the wild. I just know I'm selfishly glad that I am not the one needing to make either one of those decisions.

 
Did you read the article that I am responding to or are you merely responding to my quotes?  I'm not trying to be snarky--I'm legit curious.  If you read the article--the plan is that they are trying to send every person that is diagnosed as being positive for the coronavirus in california to this center in Costa Mesa.  The article clearly and transparently states that the facility is only suited for quarantine purposes only--and if any of the patients require medical care that they will be taken to regular Orange County hospitals.   Being that many people that suffer from this virus suffer from pneumonia-like symptoms within a few weeks--many patients that are infected with this disease will absolutely be transported to hospitals that already are crazy busy.  In Orange County-if you go to an emergency room--unless you are clearly in danger of dying--your typical wait could be 2-6 hours.  In this area--hospitals are bustling with patients--and this plan virtually guarantees that people outside of that developmental center will be exposed to the virus.    If that center was capable of quarantining and caring for patients--I would absolutely have a far lesser stance on this--but honestly--it seems like the vast majority of people here choose to argue with me without reading the very thing that I'm commenting about. 
I didn’t read your article. I’m responding to the NIMBY sentiment wrt to hospitalized COVID-19 patients, and the idea that these patients should be shuttled to more remote facilities.

In general, I favor home quarantine to housing COVID-19 infected individuals in any facility. But if someone becomes sick enough to require hospitalization, they should go to the nearest healthcare facility equipped to manage severe pneumonia/ARDS. And it shouldn’t be advertised where these patients seek care.

 
Anyone starting any prep at home?  Stocking up on frozen foods, or other things that prevent you from having to go outside for a long period of time?
We've got 45 days of food / water / supplies prepared for power outage just in case. Considering upping that to 60 days this week. 

 
Round up:

Italy over a hundred cases, a dozen municipalities have been placed in lockdown (50K people)

South Korea over six hundred cases - six dead. The country in "highest" epidemiological alert.

Turkey and Iraq close border with Iran due to Covid-19

Iran concerned with Qom potential undiscovered cases due to religious festival and at least one cleric blames Trump
Anyone who doesn't believe this is coming and will result in widespread quarantines is kidding themselves. Be prepared to shut in at your house for weeks. My guess is we are a week or two max from some pretty serious runs on stores/supplies. I hope I'm wrong. 

 
I still don’t understand why the power would ever go out. 
I seriously doubt it will as a result of this pandemic, but it's not hard to be ready for the possibility. Other scenarios (major earthquake expected by us on new Madrid fault) is far more likely to disrupt power/water.  In Florida a major hurricane is your most likely culprit. 

 
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I seriously doubt it will as a result of this pandemic, but it's not hard to be ready for the possibility. Other scenarios (major earthquake expected by us on new Madrid fault) is far more likely to disrupt power/water.  In Florida a major hurricane is your most likely culprit. 
Sure. I’m talking about bc of the pandemic. 

 
Sure. I’m talking about bc of the pandemic. 
Gotcha. Yes purely in context of the pandemic I agree Access to power/water shouldn't be an issue. 
 

Thankfully.... as Having access to hacked kodi setup will make several weeks of quarantine far more palatable. 😂 

 
Even during Spanish Flu, which afflicted 20% of the world’s population (50/250 million at the time, and killing around 20 million), public utilities continued to operate. 
It was one of my biggest gripes with Fear the Walking Dead and the principal reason I stopped watching the show: They promised to show how society fell - and then they just incarcerated everyone in the suburbs and skipped the whole thing and had the army pull out when society had apparently fallen.

 
What kinds of things should we buy?

masks, gloves, food. Anything else?
There was a post earlier that addressed it. 
 

Bleach/antibacterial agents to clean/disinfect after coming home from being out.

masks/goggles/gloves will help if you're out in public (though far from bulletproof).

Couple months of any prescription medications.

Flu meds (Imodium, ibuprofen, Tylenol, Robitussin, etc). 

Prob not a terrible idea to have a plan to quarantine a family member in a room if someone gets sick. Ideally would like to avoid infecting your entire household. 

I'd personally say at least 2-3 weeks of food and water is an easy way to avoid the crowds (and risk of transmission) when panic starts to set in. Black Friday scenarios with a highly contagious virus on the loose is kinda a recipe for disaster. 

 
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I'd personally say at least 2-3 weeks of food and water is an easy way to avoid the crowds (and risk of transmission) when panic starts to set in. Black Friday scenarios with a highly contagious virus on the loose is kinda a recipe for disaster. 
I totally agree with food, now is the time to start stocking up on food. But why water, as I don’t see a scenario where water treatment plants shut down? 

 
I mean the above is fine but I'm still running with idea that non smoker under 50 don't have to plan that far out.

At some point we adopt a old people quarantine and go about our lives with no boomers around for a bit using masks and gloves to get supplies.  Boomers probably want to bunker down. 

Already a few talking heads discussing such a thing.   

If you can keep this out of the old demo then anyone in the young demo going critical can get care and we dont stress the system.  Too much.  Maybe.  

 
The issue for me to plan for is a run on groceries, followed by a supply chain disruption due to quarantines. 
 

Odds are this kind of thing won’t happen, but if preparing now for a few weeks of craziness is reasonably low cost but high reward, why not do it?

most likely scenarios would be quarantined in major cities nearby that disrupts supply chain to restock local stores, and in the lead up a run on stores where staples are harder to come by.  Most likely even in an outbreak my family (all under 50 and healthy) should be ok.  But with taxes hospitals and clinics if an outbreak occurs, with limited restocking of supplies, I’d rather gather up some basic stuff now in case the worst happens...which hopefully would just be a major inconvenience, but if a family member gets really sick during this time even if it’s not the Coronovirus, healthcare options could be limited...so reasonable supplies of the basics would be useful to have prepped so as to not worry about overall shortages or supply issues.

 
As someone who lives in hurricane country, you don't need hurricane landfall to experience runs on stores.
See this is how I look at it too. When there is an approaching snow storm here in Colorado, people go full on zombie apocalypse level shopping at Walmart.  I have been stepping up my buying over the past few weeks. This virus would kill me if I got it--being a type one diabetic, over 50 and with high blood pressure. I have had the flu twice in my life and both times I was hospitalized, so I get how fragile my health is. 

You can just imagine what a devastating impact a full shut down would do to this country. We are such a fast food crazed society--the economic damage by just those all being shut would be immeasurable.  

 

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