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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread

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Just now, zoonation said:

I think we have to assume, based on the lack of testing, that the actual number of covid19 cases is exponentially higher than what is being reported officially.  

It is for sure, look at the number of athletes, who are being tested symptoms or not, who are testing positive (an unnamed Ottawa Senators player is the latest). But the fatality rate in turn then is much lower than raw numbers say, which is also obvious

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3 minutes ago, zoonation said:

I think we have to assume, based on the lack of testing, that the actual number of covid19 cases is exponentially higher than what is being reported officially.  

Makes me feel better about the fatality rate at least.

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6 minutes ago, cap'n grunge said:
10 minutes ago, zoonation said:

I think we have to assume, based on the lack of testing, that the actual number of covid19 cases is exponentially higher than what is being reported officially.  

Makes me feel better about the fatality rate at least.

You think we are testing people that die from similar symptoms?  

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1 minute ago, Slapdash said:

You think we are testing people that die from similar symptoms?  

They are in Canada at least. The first confirmed deceased case came in Ontario and he was only confirmed for covid after death.

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Just now, Northern Voice said:

They are in Canada at least. The first confirmed deceased case came in Ontario and he was only confirmed for covid after death.

I buy that.  But, has Canada had the major test shortage the US has?

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Re: the Ottawa Senators player - apparently it's more than one and it came from using the Staples Centre visiting team dressing room after the Brooklyn Nets:

Quote

Hockey has its first case of COVID-19. And it likely came by way of the NBA.

An unnamed Ottawa Senators player tested positive for the virus, the team said in a release late Tuesday night. That player is experiencing mild symptoms and is now in isolation.

It is believed that multiple Senators players are ill and awaiting test results to determine how many been infected.

The team recently completed a trip through California before the NHL shutdown play last Thursday afternoon. The organization suspects that the infection occurred when the Senators used the same Staples Center dressing room as the Brooklyn Nets — the NBA team that has now had four positive COVID-19 tests — the day after they played the Lakers in Los Angeles.

That Senators-Kings game was the last NHL game played before the shutdown went into effect.

https://theathletic.com/1683491/2020/03/18/senators-player-becomes-first-nhler-to-test-positive-for-covid-19/

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1 hour ago, Nipsey said:

Woke up today to an email from my dad saying he had a cough and "lung tightness". Been on phone/email all day with him, he finally gets his doctor to call him back this afternoon. Doc tells him to self-quarantine, call back if gets worse. Dad saying he's fine but that's what he'd say. Pushing 70 with history of smoking. I'm an only child. Sitting alone in my apartment, feeling helpless 3000 miles away. Tough day. Gamut of emotions. Never been one to drink to "take the edge off" but did tonight. Sang some tunes to take my mind off it. Any requests?

Where’s he at?  Maybe a fbg could look in on him? 

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Just now, Slapdash said:
1 minute ago, Northern Voice said:

They are in Canada at least. The first confirmed deceased case came in Ontario and he was only confirmed for covid after death.

I buy that.  But, has Canada had the major test shortage the US has?

Yeah, I think pretty similar. Major testing priority still going to those who have traveled recently up here.

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Just now, Slapdash said:

I buy that.  But, has Canada had the major test shortage the US has?

It’s been almost as bad.  Cannot get a test is Canada unless been travelling and have symptoms.  Exception is significant pulmonary compromise.  Then you get the test.  

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As long as we allow travel between the 50 states, seems ridiculous to close off the Canadian border. 

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1 minute ago, DA RAIDERS said:

Where’s he at?  Maybe a fbg could look in on him? 

Thanks, man. Appreciate that. He's married. Wife is looking after him. She's like him. Was not taking this as seriously as she should but I know she is now. They are in CT.

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1 hour ago, The Captain said:

Against my better judgement I got a haircut today. My buddy’s wife cut’s my hair and I wanted to support her. 

The 20 minutes in the chair were the most uncomfortable, paranoia inducing of my life. I noticed every time I felt her breath on my face and twice she laughed and i could feel it even more.  I wanted to run but sat their politely.  I’m convinced if I get it it happened today.  She’s been in contact with hundreds of people over the past month. I am filled with regret and anxiety over a stupid hair cut. 

My opinion. Every salon and barber shop in the country needs to be shut down immediately. 

Um yeah. I've needed a haircut for a few weeks now. Even before it got out of hand. Tried to get myself to go, but I always found something better to do. And the mop kept getting worse. I finally admitted to myself why I was avoiding it. And since I always ask for the world's simplest haircut... #2 blade... I decided I could do it myself. Not too bad if I gotta say so myself. I considered it a success when the kids didn't laugh at my efforts. I simply could not bring myself to getting someone else to do it. :bag:

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1 minute ago, the moops said:

As long as we allow travel between the 50 states, seems ridiculous to close off the Canadian border. 

I think it may be Canada pushing for it. Just based on the tone of things up here.

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1 minute ago, Northern Voice said:

I think it may be Canada pushing for it. Just based on the tone of things up here.

Makes sense.

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St Patrick’s Day birthday boy here. Usually it’s a party. Golf with my amigos, cocktails, corned beef and cabbage feast then back at it. This year we did a 5pm St Patrick’s Day Happy Hour. I set it up on Webex (using Zoom next time). 20+ of my closest amigos from all over joined. Golf tourney buddies. Las Vegas, Utah, Idaho, most In California. Brought a good bottle of Yellow Spot and had a ton of much needed laughs for an hour. We’re going to do it every week

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2 hours ago, JAA said:

If it’s online, post the website here. If not, PM me the name. I’ll be happy to add a few bucks to the kiddie. 

This is incredibly kind of you.  I’m trying to wrap my head around how to get the back of the house some cash. That’s what they’ll need the most.  The owners will be able to weather the storm, I think. My main concern is the kitchen.   I’ll let you know. 

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Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, Northern Voice said:

I think it may be Canada pushing for it. Just based on the tone of things up here.

Before this decision comes down. Quickly, how many rolls of TP can I get for slightly used, 32/32 Levi jeans? I got like 5 pair. 511. 

Edited by the moops
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9 minutes ago, IrishTwinkie said:

Um yeah. I've needed a haircut for a few weeks now. Even before it got out of hand. Tried to get myself to go, but I always found something better to do. And the mop kept getting worse. I finally admitted to myself why I was avoiding it. And since I always ask for the world's simplest haircut... #2 blade... I decided I could do it myself. Not too bad if I gotta say so myself. I considered it a success when the kids didn't laugh at my efforts. I simply could not bring myself to getting someone else to do it. :bag:

Checking on a Flowbee now.

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30 minutes ago, cap'n grunge said:

Gross

I mean really he just basically described a big ### bidet.

Minus the rag and stick part I mean.

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21 minutes ago, culdeus said:

Hospitalization rate is what should be monitored. 

This was my point with the idea that it was somehow here earlier and spreading unaware. I'd love it it to be true, because it would mean all sorts of good things. But based on the stats collected from around the world I just don't see how it could be true. Testing would fantastic. It is frankly criminal that testing in the US is so far behind. Truly infuriating. But there are other measures besides testing to detect if this is spreading. It is difficult for me to imagine that the medical community is so blind that they would not have cottoned  to the fact they were seeing more flu like symptoms  without positive flu tests. That seems way too convenient. My personal experience with folks in the medical field convinces me they aren't so naive. 

 

IE: There are other ways to detect the presence of this virus in the community besides straight up testing.  Of course, if you are relying on those alternate methods, you are already way behind the 8 ball.

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I hope costco creates elderly hours. One by one stores are.

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All bars and restaurants closed in Phoenix tonight at 8 PM. I’m a former restaurant worker for many many years (fast food, waiter, bartender). I met my wife working at Peter Piper Pizza 33 years ago. 
I’m so concerned about these workers. Most of them just don’t have the means of a FBG, and they are really going to be hurt by this. I just don’t see the end game for them, and it makes me sad.

My wife and I decided to go out to eat and have a drink tonight before they all closed down. We left the waitress a $500 tip and wished her well.

I wish there was something more we could all do for these workers who are going to be so hurt by this.
I agree we need to do what we are doing. But there is just going to be so much pain and suffering by so many people who don’t have work, I just don’t know how it all ends.

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29 minutes ago, Judge Smails said:

St Patrick’s Day birthday boy here. Usually it’s a party. Golf with my amigos, cocktails, corned beef and cabbage feast then back at it. This year we did a 5pm St Patrick’s Day Happy Hour. I set it up on Webex (using Zoom next time). 20+ of my closest amigos from all over joined. Golf tourney buddies. Las Vegas, Utah, Idaho, most In California. Brought a good bottle of Yellow Spot and had a ton of much needed laughs for an hour. We’re going to do it every week

Me too. Had probably the quietest birthday of my life. Watched a movie and drank some Bushmills 12.

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I did something crazy today

I work at fox army health center in hsv al

I was told to work from home.  But I couldn't do everything required from the laptop they issued me.  I needed to go back to work.  I was told a positive test of Coronavirus was found in the pharmacy just meters away from where I work but I didnt care I went back and got what was needed.   It was crazy there.  Like something out of walking dead or some movie.  Just held my breath and touched nothing got my stuff and got out.  Tents everywhere and people acting nutz. We are living in crazy times. 

Love you guys.  I think we are gonna be ok but some of the stuff I have seen makes me wonder....  

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7 minutes ago, Drunken Cowboy said:

Me too. Had probably the quietest birthday of my life. Watched a movie and drank some Bushmills 12.

That actually sounds like a great birthday to me. 

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Just now, kutta said:

That actually sounds like a great birthday to me. 

It wasn't a bad day.

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2 hours ago, parasaurolophus said:

We are making our young children make larger sacrifices and they are the least at risk and least likely to spread it. 

We don't really know this yet.  It may be they are silent carriers.  Or maybe you're right.  We just don't know.

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2 hours ago, Ministry of Pain said:

Ok, I gotta vent just a little.

I don't understand the toilet paper famine in this country. 

Has anyone ever heard of taking a shower after you take a ####? These two modern marvels are usually located fairly close to each other and perhaps for good reasons. You don't need toilet paper, you need a washcloth and a bar of soap. Rough it a little.  Try some body wash while you are in there. 

 

You cover your washcloths (and/or your bars of soap) in ####? Then rub it all over yourself with body wash? 

That's about the least sanitary thing I've ever heard of that still involves bathing in some way. 

What do you do with your shower #### washcloths? Laundry with the rest of your stuff? Wring it out with soap before you get out?

Think about how disgusting that is all the way around. 

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4 hours ago, parasaurolophus said:

You arent kicking the can down the road. You would be evaluating based on information that simply isnt available now.

I get your point of view, I generally am the type to want additional info as well for big decisions.

On a totally unrelated note, I finally googled your name to see what the heck it meant... I like it.    :missingfbgParasaurolophusemoji:

 

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I never thought I'd ever see another shelter in in my life again. The Iranian revolution of 77 to 79 when we were there was nuts. Armed people on street corners, watching those out after curfew getting shot, having cars searched often, news 24/7 no other choices, and not just empty shelves but food shortages.

So for me that I have something to compare with, this is very doable. People complaining how harsh it is would have rolled over if they went through what we went through. So let's hunker down and get through this quicker. Nothing worse than being on lockdownmode for almost 2 years.

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On 3/14/2020 at 5:40 PM, Bluto Blutarsky said:

 

Days social distancing- 4

Days with a bong hit- 4

Days without CV19- 4

 

Coincidence? 

Since everyone else is updating numbers-

Days social distancing- 7

Days with a bong hit- 7

Days without CV19- 7

 

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5 minutes ago, Bluto Blutarsky said:

Since everyone else is updating numbers-

Days social distancing- 7

Days with a bong hit- 7

Days without CV19- 7

 

Question. Does “days with a bong hit” mean “days with one bong hit” or “days with at least one bong hit?”

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Well, not sure it's "official" yet, but I just found out that my kids will almost certainly not be returning to school again this school year.  Teachers of Ventura Unified School District were apparently on calls today where it was announced.  They will not be returning, but will be doing online classes.  Crazy.   Never would have imagined just over a week ago that this would be happening.  

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I think it was just yesterday (maybe even today?) that there were a few people popping into this thread to decry the "overreactions" and specifically saying to "not believe the rumors" about how bad it is in Italy. That older patients weren't being triaged into likely death as tough choices were being made. To those people, I suggest you read this WSJ article:

Lessons From Italy’s Hospital Meltdown. ‘Every Day You Lose, the Contagion Gets Worse.’

Quote

Most [ambulances] are headed to the Papa Giovanni XXIII Hospital, a large, modern medical facility in a prosperous Italian city that has been overwhelmed by the coronavirus disease. There aren’t enough ventilators to intubate all patients with Covid-19 who have severe breathing trouble. The intensive-care unit is taking almost no patients older than 70, doctors said.
...

Ambulance staff weren’t trained for such a contagious virus. Many have become infected and their ambulances contaminated. A dispatcher died of the disease Saturday. Diego Bianco was in his mid-40s and had no prior illnesses.

“He never met patients. He only answered the phone. That shows you the contamination is everywhere,” a colleague said. Mr. Bianco’s co-workers sat Sunday at the operations center with masks on their faces and fear in their eyes.

...

“Until three weeks ago, we did everything for every patient. Now we have to choose which patients to put in intensive care. This is catastrophic,” said anesthesiologist and intensive-care specialist Mirco Nacoti.

Dr. Nacoti worked for Doctors Without Borders in Haiti, Chad, Kurdistan and Ivory Coast, and he is one of the few medics in Bergamo who has seen epidemics. Yet, those were diseases with vaccines, such as measles and rubella.

He estimated that around 60% or more of the population of Bergamo has the coronavirus. “There is an enormous number of asymptomatic people, as well as unknown dead who die in their home and are not tested, not counted,” he said. “The ICU is the tip of an iceberg.”

...

Doctors taking a break at the Papa Giovanni swap stories of woe, including the call from an elderly care home reporting suspected virus sufferers who were over 80 years old. The hospital said the elderly residents had to stay put.

...

The [San Giovanni Bianco] hospital had planned to send severe cases to Bergamo. “But we got indications that, if patients are over 65 or 70, they won’t get intubated,” said Davide Grataroli, one of the hospital doctors. “So, we’ve chosen to manage them here as best we can.

That has been the situation for nearly three weeks. The patients know that the lack of intensive-care facilities dooms those not strong enough to survive the disease with limited help. “They accept it with resignation and no complaints,” said Ms. Busi, the nurse.

“The most devastating part is that they are dying alone,” she said. “Families see the patient for the last time at the emergency room. The next time is at the mortuary.”

Such a lonely death is hard to take, the nurse said: “It’s not our culture. We’re very connected here.”

 

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2 minutes ago, mcintyre1 said:

I think it was just yesterday (maybe even today?) that there were a few people popping into this thread to decry the "overreactions" and specifically saying to "not believe the rumors" about how bad it is in Italy. That older patients weren't being triaged into likely death as tough choices were being made. To those people, I suggest you read this WSJ article:

Lessons From Italy’s Hospital Meltdown. ‘Every Day You Lose, the Contagion Gets Worse.’

 

The facts in this article are what the American public needs to be told and to see, but that's not happening, hence the behavior we still see to this moment around the country.

Due to a failure in leadership, we are Italy.

 

That has been the situation for nearly three weeks. The patients know that the lack of intensive-care facilities dooms those not strong enough to survive the disease with limited help. “They accept it with resignation and no complaints,” said Ms. Busi, the nurse.

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14 hours ago, The Z Machine said:

Where is this hospital? I'm very surprised at this statement.

Me too. Anyone who resides in an area where healthcare workers are dismissive of the COVID threat might want to consider looking elsewhere for healthcare.

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14 hours ago, Dezbelief said:

Early in the thread there were a few links suggesting that there was 2 different strains in Wuhan. Would I be mistaken in believing you could catch one strain after getting over the other?

Depends if the mutation resulted in a structural change which altered the binding site(s) for antibodies targeting the virus. Probably unlikely this "season", though a second wave of mutated infection caused the bulk of deaths in the 1918 Flu pandemic 

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3 hours ago, Slapdash said:

Not sure if it is in your wheelhouse, but I have heard things about Type A being more susceptible and Type O potentially immune.  Any thoughts on those rumors?

You might be thinking of this study - Link. This was posted earlier in this thread. It doesn’t conclude that type O is immune. It concludes that type A is more susceptible to getting cv19 than normal, and that type O is less susceptible. 

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29 minutes ago, cashman88 said:

I look forward to more carefully reading this tomorrow when I'm less tired.

At a quick scan, he's advocating caution with enacting broad sweeping policy using limited at best data to guide us.

The problem is, the lion is at the door right now - at least as best we can determine with the limited world wide data currently available.

I also added a new word from it:  hecatomb

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1 hour ago, NotSmart said:

The problem is, the lion is at the door right now - at least as best we can determine with the limited world wide data currently available.

It's strange that he reaches that conclusion without really weighing the merits of time delay to figure out who, why, when, how, what, but the merits of delay are hard to quantify.

I'm hoping for an XMas miracle whereby somebody makes a serendipitous discovery that turns out to be a vaccine or crucial information about how the virus acts, moves, etc.

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5 hours ago, Slapdash said:

You think we are testing people that die from similar symptoms?  

I've had the same thought.

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My wife made a comment that this experience has been like a time warp back to the 70’s. My kids have not spent this much time outside since I can remember. They are doing normal outdoor neighborhood kid stuff like when I was a kid. 

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7 hours ago, Capella said:

There’s a twitter thread breaking this down where he said we will be able to come out in July but then have to suppress again after that. Just won’t happen here. People won’t go for it.  Zero chance. 
 

https://twitter.com/jeremycyoung/status/1239975682643357696?s=21

I saw that thread and it made me wonder about the model. I'm having problems wrapping my head around the idea that July would be like the initial wave. Is there any accounting for possible reduced R0 in summer? What about the idea of limited herd immunity?

Not trying to downplay the risks by any means but if the coming several weeks aren't the worst then that's pretty depressing. 

(And maybe that's just me reacting to one person's interpretation of a study.)

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6 hours ago, Smack Tripper said:

I would absolutely LOVE this

Me too as my son works at Publix 

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