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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (10 Viewers)

Someone sent me a pic of 6 guys standing in a suburban neighborhood street  in a circle about 12 feet apart drinking a beer.  Selfish or okay?

 
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joffer said:
any studies on what high temperature would actually kill the virus on a surface?  a 300 degree oven?
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Going to wing this:

I have read 130 F (54.4 C) somewhere. Will look for a link.

The famous "lives on surfaces for 9 days!"** study showed that even 86 F (30 C) does a number on other coronaviruses (such as SARS). I bet 60 minutes in a hot car baking in the sun is more than enough to sanitize any object that can withstand the heat.

** this oft-repeated number came from a study that did not include the COVID virus, but a bunch of other coronaviruses such as SARS and some that infect animals.

...

EDIT: The temperature WHO goes with is around 132.8 F (56 C).

Virus survival in cell-culture supernatant

Only minimal reduction in virus concentration after 21 days at 4°C and -80°C.

Reduction in virus concentration by one log only at stable room temperature for 2 days. This would indicate that the virus is more stable than the known human coronaviruses under these conditions.

Heat at 56°C kills the SARS coronavirus at around 10000 units per 15 min (quick reduction).
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Godsbrother said:
Someone sent me a pic of 6 guys standing in a suburban neighborhood street  in a circle about 12 feet apart drinking a beer.  Selfish or okay?
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I'm personally OK with that. As I said, getting people down to neighborhood level where they just interact with the same 4-6 other families or whatever is still pretty good. I understand people will frown on that. 

 
shader said:
Good news is relative.  We aren't going to wake up one day and find that Italy has no new cases to report.  What we have to hope for is that they level off.  If they can stay in the 4-6k new cases/day range for the next week, that could be seen as leveling off.  Then we'll want to see them slowly start to drop.

If the only thing their efforts do is slow the R0 factor down, well........that would suck.
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Someone smarter than me was happy when China cases started to show slower day by day % growth.  On a day by day level, you can drive yourself crazy with the fluctuations. But when you look at weekly trends, it's moving in the right direction now at least. 

 
 
Godsbrother said:
Someone sent me a pic of 6 guys standing in a suburban neighborhood street  in a circle about 12 feet apart drinking a beer.  Selfish or okay?
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That actually makes me ask if anyone else has come with a "FluBro" scale? Mine is 1-5 where 1 is a FluBro, no regard for social distancing and just complaining about it all the time. 2 is the level of doing a little bit of distancing but really still seeing different people, going on trips, not cleaning up themselves or their houses. 3 is middle of the road, doing some good cleaning and mostly cutting out social interaction other than neighbors and necessary trips to the store. 4 is pretty locked down but still getting deliveries and going to the store if needed. Maybe they use a mask. And 5 is asking how hot they can heat up their mail or amazon package or delivered food in the oven before the virus dies and do not go outside without a mask.

My opinion is that mocking/anger at level 1 is necessary. At level 2 is reasonable. At level 3 is borderline. If we can get 80-90% of the people to level 3, that's as good as we can do in our culture. 

 
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CurlyNight said:
Seems the stimulus is only for people paying taxes. People who get less than 25k a year like ssi, ssdi social security seems are out on getting any money.
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I guess I dont understand why they would.  Their income is the same, their expenses have not changed.  Why would they receive the additional assistance?

 
Godsbrother said:
Someone sent me a pic of 6 guys standing in a suburban neighborhood street  in a circle about 12 feet apart drinking a beer.  Selfish or okay?
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I'm not going to criticize that example - and getting out, appropriated spaced, is a generally safe thing to do.

But while out in a group are people going to be completely careful and scrupulous about not doing anything that could transmit the virus?

No sneezes not covered, no tossing somebody a beer...

But probably pretty safe, especially if everyone is smart about it.

 
From Worldometer today:

241k cases worldwide. 224k cases classified as mild or recovered, 93%. 7k cases classified as serious. 10k deaths. The logarithmic curves appear more linear than exponential worldwide for both new cases and deaths.

As of now, the US is behind the curve. They are reporting 11,597 cases, of which 11,254 are reported as mild, a rate of 99%.

Apologies in advance if folks think these numbers are cherry picked. Total cases are on the front page, broken into the categories I listed. Graphs include linear and logarithmic scales. Click on countries to see the breakdown by nation, I cited the US numbers but all the countries are available to click into.
 

Worldometer Site

 
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Godsbrother said:
Someone sent me a pic of 6 guys standing in a suburban neighborhood street  in a circle about 12 feet apart drinking a beer.  Selfish or okay?
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Not a problem.

What you describe IS social distancing. They're all plenty far enough away from each other ... it's not spread by breathing the same outdoor air in the same general vicinity.

Short of one of them starting to hack and then going Rudi Gobert on everything, I don't see a problem.

 
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shader said:
I make more than 25k a year. My income hasn't changed.  I haven't lost my job.  Why would I get additional assistance?  
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It hasn't changed yet (lucky you) and the people we are talking about are on Gov assistance and their income will not be negatively affected. 

 
Grace Under Pressure said:
From Worldometer today:

241k cases worldwide. 224k cases classified as mild or recovered, 93%. 7k cases classified as serious. 10k deaths. The logarithmic curves are flattening worldwide for both new cases and deaths.

As of now, the US is behind the curve. They are reporting 11,597 cases, of which 11,254 are reported as mild, a rate of 99%.

Apologies in advance if folks think these numbers are cherry picked. Total cases are on the front page, broken into the categories I listed. Graphs include linear and logarithmic scales. Click on countries to see the breakdown by nation, I cited the US numbers but all the countries are available to click into.
 

Worldometer Site
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The curves are barely flattening if at all.  We were doubling just under every 4 days, not it's just over every 4 days.  

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1-J_vry7rclLIGooJ-Cu7OFH8rRRjB51lz1iGkwcTETc/edit?ts=5e721157#gid=0

 
shader said:
I make more than 25k a year. My income hasn't changed.  I haven't lost my job.  Why would I get additional assistance?  
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Well, the 25k isnt an arbitrary number.  Maybe if we said "folks on fixed income" dont receive assistance.

Lets be honest here, we are not trying to be perfect, we are trying to make some general rules for finding the right set of people who need help.

I think there should be a way to opt-out or send-back the money.

 
Godsbrother said:
Someone sent me a pic of 6 guys standing in a suburban neighborhood street  in a circle about 12 feet apart drinking a beer.  Selfish or okay?
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Are the 6 guys all 12 ft from each other?  Or is the diameter of the circle 12 ft?  A 12 ft diameter yields a circumference of about 37-38 ft.  This puts the guys just over 6 ft apart from 2 other guys.  This is getting into borderline territory, but being outdoors helps.   :oldunsure:

 
JAA said:
Well, the 25k isnt an arbitrary number.  Maybe if we said "folks on fixed income" dont receive assistance.

Lets be honest here, we are not trying to be perfect, we are trying to make some general rules for finding the right set of people who need help.

I think there should be a way to opt-out or send-back the money.
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If you don't need the money because you didn't lose your job, then couldn't you just donate it to a few worthy causes that will help the people who need it the most?

Why give it back?  You'll likely be taxed on it anyway.

 
Grace Under Pressure said:
From Worldometer today:

241k cases worldwide. 224k cases classified as mild or recovered, 93%. 7k cases classified as serious. 10k deaths. The logarithmic curves are flattening worldwide for both new cases and deaths.

As of now, the US is behind the curve. They are reporting 11,597 cases, of which 11,254 are reported as mild, a rate of 99%.

Apologies in advance if folks think these numbers are cherry picked. Total cases are on the front page, broken into the categories I listed. Graphs include linear and logarithmic scales. Click on countries to see the breakdown by nation, I cited the US numbers but all the countries are available to click into.
 

Worldometer Site
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Uh - not to be a debbie downer, but death rates are going up and recoveries are going down.  My guess is that China numbers are impacting this.  We need to hope that we are not on an Italy trajectory.

 
JAA said:
I guess I dont understand why they would.  Their income is the same, their expenses have not changed.  Why would they receive the additional assistance?
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Someone with a fixed income of $25k is much likelier to spend the entire check than a couple making $140k. If our goal here is to stimulate the economy, we should be sending those folks money as well.

 
JAA said:
Uh - not to be a debbie downer, but death rates are going up and recoveries are going down.  My guess is that China numbers are impacting this.  We need to hope that we are not on an Italy trajectory.
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Yes, the linked spreadsheet that Ned built is tracking non-china infections around the world.  China is a large outlier that completely skews the numbers.  Most websites track total cases though.

 
Caesar said:
If you don't need the money because you didn't lose your job, then couldn't you just donate it to a few worthy causes that will help the people who need it the most?

Why give it back?  You'll likely be taxed on it anyway.
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Good questions - my wife and I were discussing this exact thing.  Im with you, my wife thinks that the govt should know best on who needs the money.  It really becomes a personal preference here.  There could definitely be a system for small/med businesses applying for assistance if they needed it based on certain criteria of impact.  In MA, we have a pretty good online system for managing unemployment.  Im sure something like this could be leveraged.

 
JAA said:
I guess I dont understand why they would.  Their income is the same, their expenses have not changed.
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My expenses changed this month -- spent about $400 more on groceries last week than in a normal week. Will likely have to spend extra this month on prescriptions for the family if we're going to be allowed to get ahead on some of them.

 
JAA said:
Good questions - my wife and I were discussing this exact thing.  Im with you, my wife thinks that the govt should know best on who needs the money.  It really becomes a personal preference here.  There could definitely be a system for small/med businesses applying for assistance if they needed it based on certain criteria of impact.  In MA, we have a pretty good online system for managing unemployment.  Im sure something like this could be leveraged.
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Imagine how long it would take the Government to sort this out. 

 
msommer said:
What do we know about testing policy and availability?
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Long Island has set up drive through testing by appointment in both Nassau and Suffolk counties.

Manhattan and the other 4 boroughs need to be doing more IMO. These are extremely densely populated areas. Self quarantine should be the modus operandi there, but the mayor has been slow to react. He personally continues to work out at a public gym, sending mixed signals at a time where all New Yorkers need to be extremely diligent.

 
caustic said:
Someone with a fixed income of $25k is much likelier to spend the entire check than a couple making $140k. If our goal here is to stimulate the economy, we should be sending those folks money as well.
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I think we need to get the money to the people/business who need it.  We are debating on who could do a better job of it, the govt or individuals.

Maybe a food-stamp like system where it can only be used on food/essentials?  Id imagine that would bring a huge black market though :tinfoilhat:

 
Godsbrother said:
Someone sent me a pic of 6 guys standing in a suburban neighborhood street  in a circle about 12 feet apart drinking a beer.  Selfish or okay?
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People should just use common sense. Some people are staying home but acting normally in terms of interacting with friends/neighbors. Somebody in my neighborhood posted this rant on Nextdoor.

I will risk sounding officious because I'm more concerned about our reaction to CDC and state guidance about how to conduct ourselves during this pandemic the world's grappling with:

I just returned from an 8-minute drive to deliver some supplies to a friend who is without (I wore gloves and a mask from my furniture refinishing days & advised her not even to open the door). And I'm astonished by what I saw, en route and while returning.

This is just a bit of the scope of what I witnessed today: in OUR/MY neighborhood, full families with kids of all ages are congregating on street corners with baby strollers and in some cases, an elderly family member along for the walk. Additionally, kids from TWO families are running around on lawns together, tagging eachother and playing, while Moms chat and grandparents sitting on benches look on and receive the occasional hug from a child. TWO days ago, I even saw men bringing in multiple waves of folding chairs for a large event they were evidently having at their home!

Leaf blowers, landscapers and construction workers are still out in relatively normal force, blowing dirt everywhere and sitting on truck beds right next to each other, talking or eating curbside.

More north, by Sunset / Genessee, a group of 9 cyclists were riding together, stopped at the corner red light chatting away, a foot from one another.

I'll spare you more goings-on.

WHY ARE OUR NEIGHBORS CONTINUING TO CONGREGATE??

The whole POINT of being asked to adhere to social distancing is to SLOW the nation's inevitable overburdening of health care providers spread thin as it is, and available equipment and isolation units to the HUGE number of folks top health officials project will be affected, if we don't. If we DO NOT DO OUR PARTS, more people lose their lives.

PLEASE STOP BEHAVING AS THOUGH LIFE IS CONTINUING AS USUAL. There is NOTHING NORMAL about the rate and uncertainty with which this disease is spreading and killing people the world over. And it's NOT JUST THE MOST VULNERABLE who are dying, we are now learning.

Please - if you know families who are NOT on Next Door, PLEASE INVITE them to be. Engage them to engage their communities ONLINE. To EDUCATE themselves! INFORMATION IS KEY.

While our local numbers may SEEM low, the REALITY is, we really have NO GAUGE on how many people are walking around with this, as there are few available test kits (and stringent pre-requisite questioning before you can be approved for testing, STILL, even though we all are supposed to be able to be tested).

While you, your kids, your friends who are otherwise healthy may be able to beat Coronavirus if you become infected, you risk infecting others whose immune systems cannot. Don't forget - if you're infected (knowingly or unknowingly), your quick trip to the post office or grocery could be harmful or deadly to someone else.

Here's the thing - we need EVERYONE to adhere to this quarantine/ social distancing in an effort to HELP THE PEOPLE HELPING YOU! Even our UPS delivery personnel deserve your attention, as they're bringing you the essentials and novelties (I hope folks forgo the latter) to keep you stocked, while putting themselves at risk of illness. A strong, 30-ish UPS deliveryman just yesterday pulled his vehicle over on my street and buried his forehead in his un-gloved hands in a moment of feeling overwhelmed (he was - I asked). He had one pair of canvas gloves he was trying to salvage and no hand sanitizer left (I gave him some of mine) and told him I understood and thanked him for his service.

SO LET'S ALL PLEASE DO OUR PART To MITIGATE THIS CRISIS!

I apologize for this rant; I'd written a calmer, more succinct post a few minutes ago and before I hit "send" Next Door accidentally refreshed and I lost it all. I WANT EACH AND EVERY ONE OF YOU TO BE, and STAY, WELL!
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JAA said:
I think we need to get the money to the people/business who need it.  We are debating on who could do a better job of it, the govt or individuals.

Maybe a food-stamp like system where it can only be used on food/essentials?  Id imagine that would bring a huge black market though :tinfoilhat:
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Racist.

 
Doug B said:
My expenses changed this month -- spent about $400 more on groceries last week than in a normal week. Will likely have to spend extra this month on prescriptions for the family if we're going to be allowed to get ahead on some of them.
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Unless you're eating more this month, your groceries will be lower the next few months as you eat your supply.

 
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shader said:
Yes, the linked spreadsheet that Ned built is tracking non-china infections around the world.  China is a large outlier that completely skews the numbers.  Most websites track total cases though.
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Ive been following.  On the worldometer ones you can see the recovery rates going down both world wide and US.  That may be italy hitting the numbers, but with our testing increasing we should see recoveries going way up.

 
Caesar said:
If you don't need the money because you didn't lose your job, then couldn't you just donate it to a few worthy causes that will help the people who need it the most?

Why give it back?  You'll likely be taxed on it anyway.
Click to expand...
Donate to a local charity, give to a struggling relative for rent/mortgage or even patronize favorite restaurants for takeout, they are desperate for business 

 
JAA said:
Uh - not to be a debbie downer, but death rates are going up and recoveries are going down.  My guess is that China numbers are impacting this.  We need to hope that we are not on an Italy trajectory.
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That’s a completely realistic interpretation. Non-China cases are a very important metric. It’s worthwhile to look at China, South Korea and Italy as they are days/weeks in front of where we are. Unfortunately, as we discussed yesterday, the US is on the Italy trajectory, not a South Korea/China trajectory. If anything, the US is falling behind as we haven’t even adopted as strict measures yet.

 
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