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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread

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7 minutes ago, parasaurolophus said:

I don't really understand the point you guys are trying to make. If it is that Americans wont listen and follow the government restrictions then that makes it even sillier to close schools. Since those kids will be out of school (with plenty still visiting schools to pick up meals) and now under the care of americans that aren't listening. 

This of course will lead to them hanging out, having play dates, sleepovers, etc. 

In singapore the teachers and school staff are constantly reminding the kids to wash hands, not touch their faces, keep their masks on, etc. They screen often for temps. They do it for their own good since the kids aren't really the ones at risk. 

I don't have a hard time imagining our school staff doing the same things here. I do have a hard time seeing parents keeping them from hanging out with their friends long term. 

The point is we are, by nature, a decentralized system.  A people who thrive on personal freedom (with a lot of personal selfishness rather than nationally or community oriented sense of being one). We don't like the government telling us what to do. That's culturally.  Neither is necessarily better or worse (hell, I'm much for our way of life, although the selfishness and materialism needs to go). Just is.

Add to that, and in a way related, the utter cleanliness of Singapore.  Their methodical and systematic approach to health and wellness. Everyone tested that needed it. Follow ups taken.  The best medicine and facilities available to all.  No issues with folks that have no access to healthcare, or about to go broke because their last paycheck in months just got received.

From both a cultural standpoint and how their society is structure regarding rule of law, systems, infrastructure, and services, they are simply a million times more prepared for this type of scenario than are we.  It's not even up for debate.

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7 minutes ago, msommer said:

From the study: 

Which is very important because it will be culturally dependent how many infections a case will bring

So if 86% of cases went unreported, then the death rate from this is far lower than was reported.  Like roughly an eighth of it. My math may be off, I’m on my second quarantini 

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1 hour ago, prosopis said:

I was put out of work until April 6. On April 6th things will be reevaluated. :cry:

We are one of those check to check families that live above their means. Trying to stay cool but I'm freaking a little. 

I'm very sorry to hear about this, prosopis.  I'm sure you know this already, but hit the job market hard.  A ton of other people are about to be put in the same situation, and you have a slight advantage by being a little ahead of the curve. Good luck.

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1 hour ago, [scooter] said:

I think society can get along just fine for an extended period of time, as long as people are not expected to make major sacrifices.

Minor sacrifices = social distancing, handwashing, masks, gloves, prohibitions on large gatherings. (No problem.)

Major sacrifices = quarantines, lockdowns, military patrolling the streets. (Zombie apocalypse stuff.)

The problem is, we don't seem too willing to do these minor sacrifices at the moment.  

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3 minutes ago, KarmaPolice said:

The problem is, we don't seem too willing to do these minor sacrifices at the moment.  

Thus Italy+ may be in your future

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7 minutes ago, matttyl said:

So if 86% of cases went unreported, then the death rate from this is far lower than was reported.  Like roughly an eighth of it. My math may be off, I’m on my second quarantini 

Yes, obviously. Now do you think that the US can copy what China was doing or are there other factors in play that preclude that

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Pastor defies coronavirus ban as hundreds attend church 

A Louisiana pastor held a church service Tuesday night with hundreds of congregants despite an order from the state's governor banning gatherings of more than 50 people. The pastor, Reverend Tony Spell, told CBS affiliate WAFB that the coronavirus, which has killed at least 109 people in the United States, is "not a concern."  

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2 minutes ago, bradyfan said:

Pastor defies coronavirus ban as hundreds attend church 

A Louisiana pastor held a church service Tuesday night with hundreds of congregants despite an order from the state's governor banning gatherings of more than 50 people. The pastor, Reverend Tony Spell, told CBS affiliate WAFB that the coronavirus, which has killed at least 109 people in the United States, is "not a concern."  

Speechless. Which is probably for the better, because I couldn't possibly think of appropriate verbiage that wouldn't get me banned (and I would prefer to have access, at least through the virus.  Oh, and the OOTP season)

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6 minutes ago, msommer said:

Yes, obviously. Now do you think that the US can copy what China was doing or are there other factors in play that preclude that

Of course we can’t.  That’s what I’ve been saying all evening.

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Just now, KarmaPolice said:

@msommer - where you at again? 

Denmark

Currently 1057 cases and 4 deaths. But the government a couple of days ago decided not to test people that don't require hospitalization (which imho is stupid). 129 cases in hospital, 24 in ICU and 18 on respirators. My dad's girlfriend of 80 was hospitalized but released yday without being cured. My dad (88) is probably infected, so far with mild symptoms (he is home quarantined). My oldest daughters BF is probably infected but they won't test him until he's serious enough.

In Denmark crowds of 10+ are banned, restaurants and bars only open if they do take away, hairdressers and tattoo parlors are closed. All shopping malls are closed. Pretty much only pharmacies and grocery stores are open unlss you are a separate store somewhere.

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Looking at the other countries on Worldometer, we are basically the worst nation when it comes to handling this in the entire world. Even though we had some advance notice and a clear blueprint on how other countries handled it. 

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Posted (edited)

Just wanted to share a couple of resources which I have found to be useful:

YouTube: Dr John Campbell 

Retired UK nursing professor who does a 15-20 minute update each day. Also has several shorter videos on a variety of Covid-19 subtopics. Provides accurate information in a calm and measured way.

PodCast: Public Health On Call

Straight & to the point on the information we need to know. [John Hopkins]

Both are very accessible and absent hysteria or undue bias. I watch / listen to them daily.

Edited by BobbyLayne
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37 minutes ago, facook said:

 

It's a neanderthal and probably dumb opinion, but getting sports up and running needs to happen SOON.  The nation is coming to a grinding halt.  Having 8 weeks of (no public crowd) NBA playoffs would be like sweet elixir right now to me, and I hate the nba.  Hell, give me MLB this summer.  2 weeks ago I'd have told you nothing could be more boring.  I was wrong...THIS is more boring.  If we have nothing till September and then football doesn't happen I'm going to WalMart and licking grocery cart handles.

No kidding, the two biggies for me are missing the NCAA tournament, along with the start of baseball season.

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We are basically in a no win situation. If this thing is as bad as people fear it could be, many will die.

If it's not, NOBODY will take the next one seriously and the political conspiracy theories will be everywhere.

And there is zero chance that everyone deals with this quarantine stuff for more than a month if the death rate is less than 1 percent and 90 percent of the deaths are 75+.

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2 minutes ago, TLEF316 said:

We are basically in a no win situation. If this thing is as bad as people fear it could be, many will die.

If it's not, NOBODY will take the next one seriously and the political conspiracy theories will be everywhere.

And there is zero chance that everyone deals with this quarantine stuff for more than a month if the death rate is less than 1 percent and 90 percent of the deaths are 75+.

Then you lose

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I just came home from a long day at work. My 4th grade son (who's been cooped up all week with his sister and my wife) was in a playful mood and asked me if I'd "like to order anything?" I told him I'd really like a Big Mac and fries.

I was reading through this thread and he just came in with a plate with a triple decker layer of white bread with lunchmeat, mayo, and lettuce and a side of Cheetohs - my "Big Mac and fries." He also just brought me a bottle of Guinness with the cap popped off for me.

Kids can be pretty awesome sometimes.

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Just now, dickey moe said:

I just came home from a long day at work. My 4th grade son (who's been cooped up all week with his sister and my wife) was in a playful mood and asked me if I'd "like to order anything?" I told him I'd really like a Big Mac and fries.

I was reading through this thread and he just came in with a plate with a triple decker layer of white bread with lunchmeat, mayo, and lettuce and a side of Cheetohs - my "Big Mac and fries." He also just brought me a bottle of Guinness with the cap popped off for me.

Kids can be pretty awesome sometimes.

:goodposting:

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Been trying to stay on top of this thread while I’ve been on holidays in New Zealand the last two weeks but man it sure is hard to keep up. Thanks to everyone for all of the info.

my wife and I went from wondering whether to cut the trip off early and come home to virtual panic mode in 48 hours. We have since cancelled the second half of our trip to the South Island (flights, Air BNB, car, etc.) and found one of the last flights out of Auckland through LA and up to Vancouver in three days. Next on the list is getting a connection to home in Winnipeg.

Hopefully things don’t drastically change even more in the next three days ... wish us luck!

PS  - going to get drunk on some nice NZ wine tonight while we wait ....

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2 minutes ago, TLEF316 said:

We are basically in a no win situation. If this thing is as bad as people fear it could be, many will die.

If it's not, NOBODY will take the next one seriously and the political conspiracy theories will be everywhere.

And there is zero chance that everyone deals with this quarantine stuff for more than a month if the death rate is less than 1 percent and 90 percent of the deaths are 75+.

This seems to be the sentiment in my friend group. Those who don’t take it seriously are saying things like “everything is blown out of proportion all the time and it comes to nothing” so I expect they will double down on that. My husband and I feel it’s much like y2k, it ended up being fine to the end user because of all the work that went into it. But if you don’t understand that, you won’t get this. 

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4 minutes ago, TLEF316 said:

And there is zero chance that everyone deals with this quarantine stuff for more than a month if the death rate is less than 1 percent and 90 percent of the deaths are 75+.

I agree with this.  I am a highly introverted person who is actively enjoying social distancing and working from home.  I am not joking or trying to be funny when I say that I am ideally suited to dealing with this situation.  A month of this is fine. 18 months (as some are suggesting) is just not realistic.  And that's for me.  95% of the adult population would be climbing the walls in two weeks, and that's not counting kids who are mostly going to do their own social things regardless.

If success requires a long lock-down, we should just admit defeat and move on to Plan B.

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7 minutes ago, dickey moe said:

I just came home from a long day at work. My 4th grade son (who's been cooped up all week with his sister and my wife) was in a playful mood and asked me if I'd "like to order anything?" I told him I'd really like a Big Mac and fries.

I was reading through this thread and he just came in with a plate with a triple decker layer of white bread with lunchmeat, mayo, and lettuce and a side of Cheetohs - my "Big Mac and fries." He also just brought me a bottle of Guinness with the cap popped off for me.

Kids can be pretty awesome sometimes.

Yep.

I'm sorry he screwed up your order.

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1 hour ago, jamny said:

Repost from NYC thread:  

 

Shut it down!

My wife and I decided to get out of the house and walk around the nearby park that's about 3 blocks away. Our immediate neighborhood is pretty deserted. We're about 10 minutes from the Midtown Tunnel. The park was busier than I think I've ever seen it on a chilly Wednesday night. Kids playing baseball, basketball, soccer, handball.  People everywhere in all sizes of groups. Just wait until Friday when it is in the 70's

 

We're doomed.

 

 

When I drove to work this afternoon, approx 3 PM, I was stunned at the sheer number of people I saw out in the park that I have to drive through.  People walking dogs, kids playing, families going for walks, people running/biking.  Nothing that jumped out to me as being incredibly high-risk, but I was still stunned.  I guess that's what happens on a 50+ degree day in Buffalo in March.

Like someone else said (may have been you?), this weekend is gonna be a big test.  Temp is supposed to be in the high 60s here, possibly even low 70s.  We've been cooped up (figuratively) since like December....people are gonna want to get outside.

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1 minute ago, IvanKaramazov said:

I agree with this.  I am a highly introverted person who is actively enjoying social distancing and working from home.  I am not joking or trying to be funny when I say that I am ideally suited to dealing with this situation.  A month of this is fine. 18 months (as some are suggesting) is just not realistic.  And that's for me.  95% of the adult population would be climbing the walls in two weeks, and that's not counting kids who are mostly going to do their own social things regardless.

If success requires a long lock-down, we should just admit defeat and move on to Plan B.

Just watching the beaches shows me so many people aren't even up to make the least of sacrifices.  I really wonder at this point if we aren't destined to have it move through the country.  18 months seems almost impossible to hold on.  We will learn more when China and South Korea ease restrictions and try to go back to normalcy soon and see if it kicks back up to see if even the draconian measures the Chinese took will work.  I guess it does some good for most people to socially distance but if we have even 5% not listening, by the time 18 months pass it's hard to imagine a large percentage of people won't have already been exposed.  I hope what people are doing and the economic ruin isn't all for nothing.  At the very least let's hope we ease the tidal wave on the healthcare system.

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4 hours ago, DaVinci said:

:goodposting:

And all you guys running out to get haircuts, you’re not only exposing yourself to your barber, you’re exposing yourself to every client he’s had for the past few days. 
 

P.S. Stop exposing yourself to your barber, pervs.

Order a damned set of Wahl clippers online from AMZN/Walmart and do it yourself.

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6 minutes ago, IvanKaramazov said:

If success requires a long lock-down, we should just admit defeat and move on to Plan B.

This is actually a fundamental problem - I don't think anyone can define "success" right now.

 

The key to setting any goal, is to define success, make progress measurable, and then hold yourself accountable.

 

We ultimately cannot succeed here, because nobody is defining success.

 

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1 minute ago, IvanKaramazov said:

If success requires a long lock-down, we should just admit defeat and move on to Plan B.

This is exactly what I was getting at above.  I read what the experts project as being the “worst case scenario”, and it’s bad. It’s nearly 500k deaths over the next year plus.  That’s worst case.  

One of my favorite movies recently has been The Big Short.  In it, Brad Pitt has a line that’s really stuck with me - though I don’t know how actually true it is, or how it was derived.  He said that “for every 1% unemployment goes up, 40k people die”.  We’re talking about effective unemployment hitting 20%+ because of this. That’s getting close to 700k if that stat is true and holds true through this.  

There are no easy answers here. But in the meantime people are losing jobs, income, homes, businesses, retirements, and soon enough (apparently) their lives as well.

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1 hour ago, prosopis said:

I was put out of work until April 6. On April 6th things will be reevaluated. :cry:

We are one of those check to check families that live above their means. Trying to stay cool but I'm freaking a little. 

Sorry to hear, my friend.  Let me know if there's anything I can do.

--

And here at home, my near-west suburb of Chicago (Oak Park) has had a confirmed case ...and hours later, the village issued a shelter-in-place order.  Those orders generally allow travel to universities to support on-line learning (check) and solo exercise (check).  I'm a short block from the village border anyway, so I'm good.  My wife and I have been playing it safe and laying real low anyway. so nothing really changes ...not being smug about it.  Besides a local NBC sports channel just started a month-long series of reruns of the 1996 NBA playoffs (MJ's last title) and the 2010 NHL playoffs (Blackhawks first of three recent titles).

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Short version: I know someone that has died from the virus. I'm taking it poorly because of our history. 

 

Long version: His name was Steve Colby. I knew him because I was a high school basketball coach and he was a ref. He was a great ref. One of our best in Washington state. He reffed in our local association and we had him for many games. In 2000 we made it to a state title game and Steve earned the right to ref that game. It got ugly and we were down 19 in the third quarter. Monster comeback. Final minute our point guard hits a three from beyond the CBA line. State games are played in the Yakima Sundome where the Yakima SunKings play. Opponent works down the clock for a final shot. They miss. We rebound. Our point guard comes flying across mid-court and there's a huge collision. Immediately I think we're headed to the line with a great shot to win the game. Steve calls a charge and our point guard fouls out. We go into the overtime and they press the hell out of us. We ran a single high one guard set all the time and didn't have another guard. We lost in overtime. I never talked to Steve about the call. People from all over that watched it said it was an embarrassingly bad call. On tape it was worse. No possible way that was a charge. I hate that we never talked about it. He had to know he messed up and probably felt bad about it. I'm going to head to my grave not having told him I thought he was one of the best. F. 

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1 minute ago, Hooper31 said:

 

I’m sorry for your loss, brother.

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3 minutes ago, Hooper31 said:

Short version: I know someone that has died from the virus. I'm taking it poorly because of our history. 

 

Long version: His name was Steve Colby. I knew him because I was a high school basketball coach and he was a ref. He was a great ref. One of our best in Washington state. He reffed in our local association and we had him for many games. In 2000 we made it to a state title game and Steve earned the right to ref that game. It got ugly and we were down 19 in the third quarter. Monster comeback. Final minute our point guard hits a three from beyond the CBA line. State games are played in the Yakima Sundome where the Yakima SunKings play. Opponent works down the clock for a final shot. They miss. We rebound. Our point guard comes flying across mid-court and there's a huge collision. Immediately I think we're headed to the line with a great shot to win the game. Steve calls a charge and our point guard fouls out. We go into the overtime and they press the hell out of us. We ran a single high one guard set all the time and didn't have another guard. We lost in overtime. I never talked to Steve about the call. People from all over that watched it said it was an embarrassingly bad call. On tape it was worse. No possible way that was a charge. I hate that we never talked about it. He had to know he messed up and probably felt bad about it. I'm going to head to my grave not having told him I thought he was one of the best. F. 

That sucks man. I’m sorry. 

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5 minutes ago, Hooper31 said:

Short version: I know someone that has died from the virus. I'm taking it poorly because of our history. 

 

Long version: His name was Steve Colby. I knew him because I was a high school basketball coach and he was a ref. He was a great ref. One of our best in Washington state. He reffed in our local association and we had him for many games. In 2000 we made it to a state title game and Steve earned the right to ref that game. It got ugly and we were down 19 in the third quarter. Monster comeback. Final minute our point guard hits a three from beyond the CBA line. State games are played in the Yakima Sundome where the Yakima SunKings play. Opponent works down the clock for a final shot. They miss. We rebound. Our point guard comes flying across mid-court and there's a huge collision. Immediately I think we're headed to the line with a great shot to win the game. Steve calls a charge and our point guard fouls out. We go into the overtime and they press the hell out of us. We ran a single high one guard set all the time and didn't have another guard. We lost in overtime. I never talked to Steve about the call. People from all over that watched it said it was an embarrassingly bad call. On tape it was worse. No possible way that was a charge. I hate that we never talked about it. He had to know he messed up and probably felt bad about it. I'm going to head to my grave not having told him I thought he was one of the best. F. 

Sorry for your loss.  😞

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10 minutes ago, matttyl said:

This is exactly what I was getting at above.  I read what the experts project as being the “worst case scenario”, and it’s bad. It’s nearly 500k deaths over the next year plus.  That’s worst case.  

One of my favorite movies recently has been The Big Short.  In it, Brad Pitt has a line that’s really stuck with me - though I don’t know how actually true it is, or how it was derived.  He said that “for every 1% unemployment goes up, 40k people die”.  We’re talking about effective unemployment hitting 20%+ because of this. That’s getting close to 700k if that stat is true and holds true through this.  

There are no easy answers here. But in the meantime people are losing jobs, income, homes, businesses, retirements, and soon enough (apparently) their lives as well.

I'd really want to find someone more qualified than Brad Pitt to say that before taking it into any kind of corrobaration or calculation. Please

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More studies emerging on the effectiveness of chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine to wipe this virus out and do so rapidly...

https://docs.google.com/document/d/e/2PACX-1vTi-g18ftNZUMRAj2SwRPodtscFio7bJ7GdNgbJAGbdfF67WuRJB3ZsidgpidB2eocFHAVjIL-7deJ7/pub

Time tested, malaria drugs that are cheap and easily manufactured. My goodness how long is it going to take to act on this possible end to this madness?

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1 minute ago, Mr Anonymous said:

More studies emerging on the effectiveness of chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine to wipe this virus out and do so rapidly...

https://docs.google.com/document/d/e/2PACX-1vTi-g18ftNZUMRAj2SwRPodtscFio7bJ7GdNgbJAGbdfF67WuRJB3ZsidgpidB2eocFHAVjIL-7deJ7/pub

Time tested, malaria drugs that are cheap and easily manufactured. My goodness how long is it going to take to act on this possible end to this madness?

As soon as it is peer reviewed and re tested - as anything else, like cold fusion

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1 minute ago, msommer said:

As soon as it is peer reviewed and re tested - as anything else, like cold fusion

It's been peer reviewed and even used as treatment for CV19 many times over already. And the drug has been around for 50 years. It's well tested.

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12 minutes ago, matttyl said:

This is exactly what I was getting at above.  I read what the experts project as being the “worst case scenario”, and it’s bad. It’s nearly 500k deaths over the next year plus.  That’s worst case.  

...not to compete on worst-case scenarios, but I’ve read projections far more dire than that number.

I know that I’m on the Debbie Downer spectrum on this thing, but it’s guys like Fauci and Ackman (if you heard his interview on CNBC today) who are sounding the alarm in an upfront tough love type manner where no punches are pulled that need to be broadcast loudly and widely.

Quite frankly, we need to do a compete 30 day shut-down like Ackman suggested.  

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Just now, Mr Anonymous said:

It's well tested.

Not on Covid-19 apparently or a lot of medical professional would start to use it right now

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Just now, msommer said:

Not on Covid-19 apparently or a lot of medical professional would start to use it right now

You don’t understand. ‘They’ don’t want this treated. 

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19 minutes ago, matttyl said:

This is exactly what I was getting at above.  I read what the experts project as being the “worst case scenario”, and it’s bad. It’s nearly 500k deaths over the next year plus.  That’s worst case.  

One of my favorite movies recently has been The Big Short.  In it, Brad Pitt has a line that’s really stuck with me - though I don’t know how actually true it is, or how it was derived.  He said that “for every 1% unemployment goes up, 40k people die”.  We’re talking about effective unemployment hitting 20%+ because of this. That’s getting close to 700k if that stat is true and holds true through this.  

There are no easy answers here. But in the meantime people are losing jobs, income, homes, businesses, retirements, and soon enough (apparently) their lives as well.

That's not worst case. Doctors/experts regularly throwing around 1.5 to 2 million deaths in US now as possible.

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