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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread

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Posted (edited)
15 minutes ago, tonydead said:

If so, with the latest guesses at mortality rate (that I've heard) we should have 2,500 deaths and we have less than 250 reported.  

Don't forget that some people died without ever knowing if they had COVID or not. Some posthumous testing has been done, but not a whole lot.

EDIT: Also, mortality rate is not a function of COVID, it is a function of the available healthcare response. That's a big reason I don't really buy into taking the raw number of known COVID deaths today and working backwards to "presumed number of cases on date X". The underlying numbers aren't anywhere near firm enough.

Edited by Doug B
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2 hours ago, rick6668 said:

Some goods news

Local paint store placed an order in for 6,400 N95 masks 3 weeks ago.  The whole pallet arrived.  This was an 8 year supply for his company.  Guy donated a small amount to Foodlink who is distributing food to the local community, The rest to the local Hospital.

Guy could have sold them for $20 a piece.

 

https://13wham.com/news/local/victor-paint-store-donates-6000-n95-masks-for-cornavirus-use

Add a zero to the end of that 20. 
 

 

And yes, great for him. Awesome. 

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4 minutes ago, tamales said:

But only slight fever and no other symptoms yesterday this felt like even less than a cold. 

I wouldn't mess around with any elevated temperature. Is it possible to keep distance from your kid?

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Media: stay home pls

hermit in me: say no more 

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1 hour ago, Terminalxylem said:

Old people are stubborn, and have a different perspective on life and death. Plus they tend to watch news sources which have been downplaying the pandemic.

Yup. The old I want to live whatever time I have left the way I want.

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Has congress officially passed anything about refund checks?

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14 minutes ago, Redwes25 said:

Good luck and wish you and your family are safe and healthy. Just a word of warning as someone else posted an article from a doctor who has recovered that at this stage we should just assume any cold is Covid since symptons are so similar early on. 

This is a downer -- I had been assuming that common-cold onset symptoms were very different from COVID onset symptoms.

Is it still thought that an onset symptom of "runny nose" or "stuffy nose" equals "pretty much for sure not COVID"? Or do we** no longer think that? A few weeks ago, it has seemed that runny/stuffy nose was a common symptom of those getting over a COVID infection, after the worst of it had past.
 

** "we" meaning "best scientific info we have right this second".

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3 minutes ago, Doug B said:

Don't forget that some people died without ever knowing if they had COVID or not. Some posthumous testing has been done, but not a whole lot.

EDIT: Also, mortality rate is not a function of COVID, it is a function of the available healthcare response. That's a big reason I don't really buy into taking the raw number of known COVID deaths today and working backwards to "presumed number of cases on date X". The underlying numbers aren't anywhere near firm enough.

Right, I qualified the posthumous stuff in one of my posts above, we should know better now and going forward.  Agree with healthcare response.  You said 3 weeks ago, the numbers should have corrected themselves by now and at least put us on the same magnitude.  The numbers show a mortality rate more in line with the regular flu.

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2 minutes ago, wazoo11 said:

Has congress officially passed anything about refund checks?

Thought this was done yesterday? Caught a little bit of TV news this morning, thought checks were a done deal.

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22 minutes ago, tonydead said:
28 minutes ago, Doug B said:

I meant "over 250,000 infections on February 29, 2020." Meant three weeks ago we were over 250,000.

If so, with the latest guesses at mortality rate (that I've heard) we should have 2,500 deaths and we have less than 250 reported.  

As I mentioned the last time you tried to make this bogus argument, a lot of people that are currently infected are going to die, they just haven't died yet.  I think the death rate is still around 50% if we only look at confirmed cases that have either 1) died or 2) recovered. You can't assume that all of the living confirmed cases are going to recover. Stop making this terrible argument, it is seriously flawed.

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1 minute ago, tonydead said:

Right, I qualified the posthumous stuff in one of my posts above, we should know better now and going forward.  Agree with healthcare response.  You said 3 weeks ago, the numbers should have corrected themselves by now and at least put us on the same magnitude.  The numbers show a mortality rate more in line with the regular flu.

Only as long as local healthcare systems can hold up. I think you have to decouple "mortality rate" from "specific disease" right now.

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Shaq is hilarious. If you want to laugh, go to his Instagram account, check out his latest post. 

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Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, fatguyinalittlecoat said:

As I mentioned the last time you tried to make this bogus argument, a lot of people that are currently infected are going to die, they just haven't died yet.  I think the death rate is still around 50% if we only look at confirmed cases that have either 1) died or 2) recovered. You can't assume that all of the living confirmed cases are going to recover. Stop making this terrible argument, it is seriously flawed.

(addressing the house, not fatguyinalittlecoat)

A focus on mortality rate is wrong, anyway. Focus on hospitalizations, and strains on local healthcare systems across the country.

Edited by Doug B
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And seriously folks, if there is ever a time to err on the side of caution, it is in the case of a ####### pandemic. If it turns out that the mortality rate is lower than expected, great. All we lost was some commuting to work and workign for the man and some lack of hanging out with friends. 

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4 minutes ago, fatguyinalittlecoat said:

As I mentioned the last time you tried to make this bogus argument, a lot of people that are currently infected are going to die, they just haven't died yet.  I think the death rate is still around 50% if we only look at confirmed cases that have either 1) died or 2) recovered. You can't assume that all of the living confirmed cases are going to recover. Stop making this terrible argument, it is seriously flawed.

Not only that but we don't know what the long term outcomes will be for those who recover. We've already seen reports about lung scarring in younger healthy populations. Death is not the only adverse outcome here.

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37 minutes ago, thecatch said:

There are no time restrictions for grocery shopping. 

Ok but I believe there is at least a block of time set aside for the elderly to do their grocery shopping?  

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6 minutes ago, Doug B said:

Thought this was done yesterday? Caught a little bit of TV news this morning, thought checks were a done deal.

I figure we’ve got at least another week of bickering back and forth until they finally decide to slash the working mans cut so the big corporations get a bigger piece

 

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4 minutes ago, tonydead said:

Right, I qualified the posthumous stuff in one of my posts above, we should know better now and going forward.  Agree with healthcare response.  You said 3 weeks ago, the numbers should have corrected themselves by now and at least put us on the same magnitude.  The numbers show a mortality rate more in line with the regular flu.

Where are you getting those numbers? I don't see its mortality rate as anything close to the regular flu.

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1 hour ago, Anarchy99 said:

So how protective of your community are people getting? I generally stay out of other people’s affairs and mind my own business. 

Our state has mandated all public and private schools closed for a minimum of several weeks (except daycare). And no gatherings over 10 people. 

Last night I drove by a driving school that had 30 kids sitting elbow to elbow and some other adults with them. (All clearly visible through the window.) Would you report it or let it slide?

Report it.

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Posted (edited)
10 minutes ago, fatguyinalittlecoat said:

As I mentioned the last time you tried to make this bogus argument, a lot of people that are currently infected are going to die, they just haven't died yet.  I think the death rate is still around 50% if we only look at confirmed cases that have either 1) died or 2) recovered. You can't assume that all of the living confirmed cases are going to recover. Stop making this terrible argument, it is seriously flawed.

Last time I was talking everyone down from 3.5% to 1.0%. And I was unequivocally correct. 

Doug's premise is based on what the numbers were 3 weeks ago. How many people of the 4% infected that need critical care have been on a ventilator for longer than a month?  ETA: It would have to be a lot since right now the number is 0.01%.

I'm not ready to say the number is way less than 1%, yet.  But the fact remains, you cannot have a super high infection rate and a high mortality rate, we just don't have enough deaths to support that.

Edited by tonydead
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1 hour ago, Cowboysfan8 said:

Are Californians allowed out to grocery shop?

Emergencies only?

Need to bare in mind we need to keep 6 ft distance from each other. I posted details about our area 2, 3, 4 pages ago to someone else. 

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New York is closed.

 

This is crazy.

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Favipiravir (Avigan)   Look it up.  Will be interesting to see if it really works.  Tests in China say it does.  Fujifilm, the maker in Japan, says they cannot confirm it works.  Sounds like it will be early May before it is through trials for treatment of COVID 19 cases.  Still it's not a vaccine and doesn't stop the need for way more testing.  But a potential bright spot in helping those inflicted.

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17 minutes ago, Doug B said:

Thought this was done yesterday? Caught a little bit of TV news this morning, thought checks were a done deal.

Not yet. In the economy thread I posted a link on what is the current idea. But it's still being hashed out.

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19 minutes ago, Doug B said:

This is a downer -- I had been assuming that common-cold onset symptoms were very different from COVID onset symptoms.

Is it still thought that an onset symptom of "runny nose" or "stuffy nose" equals "pretty much for sure not COVID"? Or do we** no longer think that? A few weeks ago, it has seemed that runny/stuffy nose was a common symptom of those getting over a COVID infection, after the worst of it had past.
 

** "we" meaning "best scientific info we have right this second".

Think this is more of an abundance of cushion recommendation in the article (also it is just one dr. and not something from CDC).  Though a runny nose has been a sympton all along but just a small minority of symptoms. Big symptoms are still fever and dry cough.  

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4 minutes ago, tonydead said:

Last time I was talking everyone down from 3.5% to 1.0%. And I was unequivocally correct. 

Doug's premise is based on what the numbers were 3 weeks ago. How many people of the 4% infected that need critical care have been on a ventilator for longer than a month?  ETA: It would have to be a lot since right now the number is 0.01%.

I'm not ready to say the number is way less than 1%, yet.  But the fact remains, you cannot have a super high infection rate and a high mortality rate, we just don't have enough deaths to support that.

Educated estimates by smart people are saying that a 0.6% mortality rate is what we can expect when this is all over.

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4 minutes ago, tonydead said:

But the fact remains, you cannot have a super high infection rate and a high mortality rate, we just don't have enough deaths to support that.

The bolded really doesn't matter. Why focus on mortality rate? You don't agree that hospitalization rate is the lynchpin?

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1 minute ago, joffer said:

It seems the WHO is saying there is no concrete evidence that taking ibuprofin can worsen the symptoms. I understand where they're coming from, not having a nice long term study done to confirm one way or another. The problem is, when said study is done, it's going to be way to ####### late. So yeah, I'm going to err on the side of the French advice on this one since I've got a 500 pill bottle of Tylenol in my cupboard. 

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56 minutes ago, trader jake said:

It won't be long until all non-essential businesses are closed nationwide - with the National Guard used to enforce the edict.

If non-essential supplies are needed and you have the ability to do so...I'd get them as soon as possible.  Good luck out there all - be safe.

Hearing the same. An announcement may be coming this weekend. This is from someone who works for the state of Michigan. 

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13 minutes ago, fred_1_15301 said:

Ok but I believe there is at least a block of time set aside for the elderly to do their grocery shopping?  

Not sure it's at every store but yes, first thing in the am for a couple hours. Also the disabled.

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1 minute ago, Redwes25 said:

Think this is more of an abundance of cushion recommendation in the article (also it is just one dr. and not something from CDC).  Though a runny nose has been a sympton all along but just a small minority of symptoms. Big symptoms are still fever and dry cough.  

Is this enough?

(Auto-correct blows)

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6 minutes ago, Otis said:

New York is closed.

 

This is crazy.

If it’s anything like Pa it’s really not. Most everyone I know is still working 

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4 hours ago, JAA said:

GB - I respect you a lot.  I’m sad we disagree on this topic, but we do  

I do not believe it is the govt responsibility to find me a job that a like. I don’t believe it is their responsibility to let me live in the place I want to live and spend the way I want to spend.

I believe in personal responsibility. I believe there will be times the govt needs to step in to help. I believe that is healthy.

However, I think what you are describing is unhealthy. What I’m hearing you say is that if I can’t find the job I like, in the place I want to live, the the govt should step in and help.

However, if there are zero jobs, that’s a huge difference between not having a job you like. For example, if Costco or Amazon is hiring nearby and you were a waitress that was laid off and collecting unemployment, well ... get to the store and start stocking shelves. 

All that said, I think this highlights why in our country we need a living wage and not a minimum wage. 

I don't believe we disagree as much as you think.  Not sure if my point is being poorly communicated or not, but I'll try to clarify.

You suggested that the folks in the hospitality industry "get another job" - that's 15 MILLION people.  My contention is WHAT other job will they get? It has nothing to do with willingness to work, which seems to be what you suggest (almost every one of my friends is looking to do anything, that includes stocking shelves, and they'd be ecstatic to get $15 bucks an hour for it right now - they are also busting their asses trying to come up with innovative ways to make some scratch.  One-on-one video or in person cocktail making tips, private server or bartending services while people are camped up at home... but that doesn't work for even the best of servers, who can make $60-150k a year).

My point is willing or not, there are $15 million people, mostly unemployed / furloughed right now.  There will be what, a few hundred thousand temporary jobs at Costco, WalMart, Grocery chains?  What do you suggest for the other 10 or so million?

You seem to assume these people aren't willing to work stocking shelves. They are.  That was my point, that you don't seem to understand the reality of how certain industries (hospitality in this case) are being hit.  There are very few other jobs to go to, and other than what we agree upon re: stocking shelves, which is limited in number, almost no one is hiring.

To your last point, I agree  THOUSAND percent.  These people work hard. Harder than most I know.  Often 15 hour days.  They deserve a living wage.  Not only deserve it, but for the economic standing of our nation, we have made ourselves WEAK because our economy is in no position to withstand any such jolt as we are seeing today. Because folks have low wages, multiple jobs, too much $$ spent on housing and transportation (and what is left is spent too often on materialism fed by the constant push of commercialism and greed in our nation) AND no health insurance.  The result is what we see now...

When there are no - or very few - other jobs available, there is no outlet.  Even for folks willing to work as hard as anyone.

 

Hope that helps clarify my point. 

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11 minutes ago, tonydead said:

But the fact remains, you cannot have a super high infection rate and a high mortality rate, we just don't have enough deaths to support that.

YES YOU CAN.  If it takes a while for people to die. Stop spreading misinformation.

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4 minutes ago, The Captain said:

Hearing the same. An announcement may be coming this weekend. This is from someone who works for the state of Michigan. 

Can we avoid rumors like this.  We see articles, etc. lets post them but not word of mouth rumors.  

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2 minutes ago, Cowboysfan8 said:

If it’s anything like Pa it’s really not. Most everyone I know is still working 

It's not closed. They followed CA lead. They're doing the same as us.

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5 minutes ago, The Captain said:

Hearing the same. An announcement may be coming this weekend. This is from someone who works for the state of Michigan. 

I heard they’re having free beer tomorrow too

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Posted (edited)

Okay, this has really hit close to home. My computer illiterate grandma was freaking out because she was low on the crazy expensive special urinary track food for her cat. So ordered it on Amazon. It arrived in 5.8 ounce cans, and she expected the 2.9 ounce. She left a message freaking out because she has to send them back but has no ideas how. :lmao:

Edited by Mr. Ham
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54 minutes ago, tonydead said:

If so, with the latest guesses at mortality rate (that I've heard) we should have 2,500 deaths and we have less than 250 reported.  

Its very possible that "flu attributed deaths" could be from CV

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9 minutes ago, Tom Skerritt said:

Educated estimates by smart people are saying that a 0.6% mortality rate is what we can expect when this is all over.

I like that.  I was saying 1.0% when a lot of people in here was saying 3.5%.  Now I'm starting to think it's lower than 1.0% and that's all I'm trying to say.

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6 minutes ago, fatguyinalittlecoat said:

YES YOU CAN.  If it takes a while for people to die. Stop spreading misinformation.

Or you can stop fear mongering.

13 minutes ago, Tom Skerritt said:

Educated estimates by smart people are saying that a 0.6% mortality rate is what we can expect when this is all over.

 

Just now, tonydead said:

I like that.  I was saying 1.0% when a lot of people in here was saying 3.5%.  Now I'm starting to think it's lower than 1.0% and that's all I'm trying to say.

 

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5 minutes ago, Jobber said:

It seems the WHO is saying there is no concrete evidence that taking ibuprofen can worsen the symptoms. I understand where they're coming from, not having a nice long term study done to confirm one way or another. The problem is, when said study is done, it's going to be way to ####### late. So yeah, I'm going to err on the side of the French advice on this one since I've got a 500 pill bottle of Tylenol in my cupboard. 

I'm the opposite ... I've got the 1,000-pill bottle of ibuprofen in my cabinet :D  Though my wife has a half-full big bottle of Tylenol (unsure of quantity, but the bottle is about the size of a Coke can with the top 1/3 chopped off.

My wife also saw something on Facebook about "Stop taking elderberry stuff because it's an anti-inflammatory NSAID and you can't take NSAIDs or else your immune system goes to pot!" All this after imploring me to buy elderberry gummies last weekend :wall: The gummies I bought also have zinc and I think Vitamin D ... yeah, it's snake oil BS but they're great placebos.

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15 minutes ago, Otis said:

New York is closed.

 

This is crazy.

Total USA confirmed cases: 16058

Total New York state confirmed cases: 7102

% of USA cases in New York state: 44%

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9 minutes ago, CurlyNight said:
12 minutes ago, Cowboysfan8 said:

If it’s anything like Pa it’s really not. Most everyone I know is still working 

It's not closed. They followed CA lead. They're doing the same as us.

People should keep in mind ... even Wuhan during it's most stringent lockdown didn't 100% close down. They probably got it to maybe a 98% closedown, and maybe the best that can be done in the U.S. would be a 90% closedown.

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4 minutes ago, CurlyNight said:

It's not closed. They followed CA lead. They're doing the same as us.

I am in Pa

If you get a chance could you please give me a Cliff Notes version of what your news rules are in California So I can compare?

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3 minutes ago, Politician Spock said:

Total USA confirmed cases: 16058

Total New York state confirmed cases: 7102

% of USA cases in New York state: 44%

and NYC gotta be responsible for roughly 75% of the state's  number, iirc

:(

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33 minutes ago, the moops said:

And seriously folks, if there is ever a time to err on the side of caution, it is in the case of a ####### pandemic. If it turns out that the mortality rate is lower than expected, great. All we lost was some commuting to work and workign for the man and some lack of hanging out with friends. 

Really? Seems like we're losing our retirement funds, people are losing their jobs, and others are losing their small business. 

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