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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Doug B said:

The bolded really doesn't matter. Why focus on mortality rate? You don't agree that hospitalization rate is the lynchpin?

He's been focused on that, without evidence, for 3-4 weeks in here.  This isn't new for tonydead. Once Trump said it would end up under 1 percent, a mob of sycophants now are convinced the mortality rate is 1% or sub 1% despite any evidence of that.

Edited by shader
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I apologize to the board for clogging this thread as much as I did with something as stupid as the bottled water issue. I’m done with it

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me too take that to the bank brohan 

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1 hour ago, fred_1_15301 said:

Ok but I believe there is at least a block of time set aside for the elderly to do their grocery shopping?  

I believe some stores like Walmart have a morning hour set aside for elderly folks. 

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5 minutes ago, shader said:

He's been focused on that, without evidence, for 3-4 weeks in here.  This isn't new for tonydead. Once Trump said it would end up under 1 percent, a mob of sycophants now are convinced the mortality rate is 1% or sub 1% despite any evidence of that.

There is no need for this.  Please continue to just post useful info like you have been thanks.

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4 minutes ago, Cowboysfan8 said:

I apologize to the board for clogging this thread as much as I did with something as stupid as the bottled water issue. I’m done with it

Me too. I'll continue helping the elderly around me and those in the assisted living my friend's mom is in who are having a tough time, not just with this crisis but everything because of age related issues such as memory and cognitive decline. 

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30 minutes ago, tamales said:

If over 250k people in us have this now as many claim to believe, then the death rate RIGHT NOW is only .08%

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/u/0/d/1ZSuR2yc-8JpMAuuhXR7Qw3xQfjTDdcEM1Q5WvKoz3cw/htmlview#gid=0

 

Spend some time looking this over.  A large portion of those 250k people would not be at the death stage just yet. 

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1 hour ago, Doug B said:

(addressing the house, not fatguyinalittlecoat)

A focus on mortality rate is wrong, anyway. Focus on hospitalizations, and strains on local healthcare systems across the country.

Right, this is what flattening the curve is all about. The fatality rates are something that can be examined in retrospect, the denominator is unknowable at the current time. The measures are being taken so that a hospitalization spike is hopefully avoided. 

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Did I hear them say 80% of people tested so far in US were negative?

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If I’m reading correctly state of Michigan isn’t waiving school hour requirements so kids could be going to schools well into the summer 

@Ilov80s hearing anything more about this? 

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Posted (edited)
19 minutes ago, Cowboysfan8 said:

Trump “I don’t think we will find it necessary to have a nationwide lockdown”

This is a no-win situation for Trump.  A lockdown destroys the economy but stops the virus.  Ignoring the virus keeps the economy running and leads to a massive amount of deaths. 

Trying to go down the middle is the "safe" choice and possibly the politically wise choice.  But it's not without large risks of it's own (economy still tanks and just a few less deaths)

 

 

Edited by shader
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Posted (edited)
30 minutes ago, JAA said:

👋 Nice job avoiding my question.

The reality is that information is really important right now.  There is a lot of it, some good some not so good.  Ive been using this forum to "read the tea leaves".  What I mean is I use it to correlate info from outside my area to things I know from my area.  I use this information to try to make informed decisions for my family.

If all we did was react to facts, we would be behind by the time information comes out.

For example - I filled up my gas tanks because of this thread (as well as other indicators).  Why?  First, I could think of a few scenario where stations may shut down.  Secondly, it really wasnt a big deal.  I mean, I go to the station and fill up on gas that will eventually get used anyway.  Whats the big deal?  The worst scenario would have been if I didnt fill up my gas and missed my chance.

Guess what?  I can still get gas today and Im not wounded over it.

 

Moderates have asked multiple times to not post rumors and post links to support statements. Think that is all people really want. 

Edited by Redwes25
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38 minutes ago, tamales said:

If over 250k people in us have this now as many claim to believe, then the death rate RIGHT NOW is only .08%

That's not how it works. If I gave the entire planet Ebola tonight the death rate isn't (current # of Ebola deaths)/7.7 billion because there are about 7.7 billion people with undetermined fates.

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1 minute ago, shader said:

This is a no-win situation for Trump.  A lockdown destroys the economy but stops the virus.  Ignoring the virus keeps the economy running and leads to a massive amount of deaths. 

Trying to go down the middle is the "safe" choice and possibly the politically wise choice.  But it's not without large risks of it's own (economy still tanks and just a few less deaths)

 

 

Agree

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15 minutes ago, the moops said:

It's only 25 degrees out here, but it is sunny. I'm going for a nice long bike ride. Enjoy your Fijis all :thumbup:

Stay happy and healthy all 

Nice. I avoid riding on roads but might start for the time being. The trails are wall to wall people. It's nearly impossible to ride. And a little anti-social distancing.

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5 minutes ago, Dan Lambskin said:

If I’m reading correctly state of Michigan isn’t waiving school hour requirements so kids could be going to schools well into the summer 

@Ilov80s hearing anything more about this? 

Most schools are moving to an online format.  Certainly those days will count.

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5 minutes ago, Keerock said:

Did I hear them say 80% of people tested so far in US were negative?

I haven't read that but wouldn't surprise me if it's higher that. Flu is still going around along the common cold....and allergies. With all the news coverage of coronavirus, someone with a runny nose or a slight cough could be "omg, I got coronavirus!"

(Not saying people shouldn't get tested)

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23 minutes ago, Phil Elliott said:

With the the NY soft lockdown, lots of people leaving Manhattan and renting Airbnb units in Hamptons snd Hudson Valley, raising rental rates 2-3x.

Express deliveries on the East End up this week over the norm.

(FedExGuy)

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2 minutes ago, shader said:

This is a no-win situation for Trump.  A lockdown destroys the economy but stops the virus.  Ignoring the virus keeps the economy running and leads to a massive amount of deaths. 

Trying to go down the middle is the "safe" choice and possibly the politically wise choice.  But it's not without large risks of it's own (economy still tanks and just a few less deaths)

 

 

America already has a really bad problem with suicides.  If the economy tanks for months, people struggle to find work, pay bills, etc, there will be an adverse impact to mental health.

It's a difficult balancing act and unfortunately the president (Trump or whoever it would have been) will get criticized no matter what they do.

 

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1 hour ago, tonydead said:

I like that.  I was saying 1.0% when a lot of people in here was saying 3.5%.  Now I'm starting to think it's lower than 1.0% and that's all I'm trying to say.

Just make sure you keep keeping tabs on who said what first and how much smarter you are than everyone else. Unless of course you're not. We all love getting this critical info from you.

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10 minutes ago, Keerock said:

Did I hear them say 80% of people tested so far in US were negative?

Dunno, but that's not the case in Louisiana. Rate of negatives here is only 54.25% so far :( 

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Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, Galileo said:

Most schools are moving to an online format.  Certainly those days will count.

 Nope.  Tanner mentioned elsewhere there is some Act that prohibits this because you can’t guarantee fair access to all students 

no online instruction during this time can be counted

https://www.freep.com/story/news/education/2020/03/20/michigan-department-education-schools-online-learning-coronavirus/2883849001/

 

Edited by Dan Lambskin

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Posted (edited)
14 minutes ago, shader said:

This is a no-win situation for Trump.  A lockdown destroys the economy but stops the virus.  Ignoring the virus keeps the economy running and leads to a massive amount of deaths. 

Trying to go down the middle is the "safe" choice and possibly the politically wise choice.  But it's not without large risks of it's own (economy still tanks and just a few less deaths)

 

 

Edit: on mobile and thought I was responding to political thread. 

Edited by Mr. Ham
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Posted (edited)
11 minutes ago, shader said:

Italy: 5,985 new cases - 627 new deaths

Maybe somethings off but worldometer is showing 15,147 new cases for Italy.

Edited by Random

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2 minutes ago, tjnc09 said:

America already has a really bad problem with suicides.  If the economy tanks for months, people struggle to find work, pay bills, etc, there will be an adverse impact to mental health.

It's a difficult balancing act and unfortunately the president (Trump or whoever it would have been) will get criticized no matter what they do.

 

More precisely chose not to do in a timely fashion.

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Just now, Doug B said:

Dunno, but that's not the case in Louisiana. Rate of negatives here is only 54.25% so far :( 

NYS did 10k tests yesterday and had 2950 positives.  Most of the testing (and cases) in the US are currently coming from here as we’re one of the few places that have testing ramped up (Cuomo was saying on a per capita basis its the highest in the world).

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"Mr. President, are you aware there are surfaces on these cruise ships and this virus lives on surfaces?" Why didn't everyone just laugh at the question and move on?

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2 minutes ago, BeTheMatch said:

Just make sure you keep keeping tabs on who said what first and how much smarter you are than everyone else. Unless of course you're not. We all love getting this critical info from you.

Math isn't everyone's subject.

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Just now, Random said:

Maybe somethings off but worldometer is 15,147 new cases.

It updated recently. I saw what shader saw when I looked earlier.

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1 hour ago, Tom Skerritt said:

Educated estimates by smart people are saying that a 0.6% mortality rate is what we can expect when this is all over.

So just a shade under 2 million deaths over the next year?  With the majority being older or those with pre ex conditions?  We have 2.8m US deaths in a given year already - with the majority being older and those with pre ex conditions.  Tough question to ask, but will all of these “lockdowns” and the destruction of the economy be worth it when this is all over?

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2 minutes ago, glock said:

More precisely chose not to do in a timely fashion.

Hindsight is 20/20.  There are a number of countries that didn't lockdown their population and haven't seen incredibly terrible infected rates.

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16 minutes ago, shader said:

Italy: 5,985 new cases - 627 new deaths

Italy’s death rate running at over 8 percent. Scary numbers at this point. 

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2 minutes ago, jplvr said:

It updated recently. I saw what shader saw when I looked earlier.

Appears to be back at 5986 now.

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37 minutes ago, Phil Elliott said:

We go thru a case of Fiji water each week. Best tasting water we have found. Cost is relative to each person. :shrug:

What about the cost to the planet?

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25 minutes ago, Sneegor said:

There is no need for this.  Please continue to just post useful info like you have been thanks.

Spreading misinformation is part of the issue.

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22 minutes ago, Dan Lambskin said:

If I’m reading correctly state of Michigan isn’t waiving school hour requirements so kids could be going to schools well into the summer 

@Ilov80s hearing anything more about this? 

Yeah this is horrible, my daughter has the biggest case of "senioritis" already, just got her a Chromebook from the school district yesterday... I can't imagine what she's gonna do when she hears this.

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2 minutes ago, Apple Jack said:

Spreading misinformation is part of the issue.

I don't believe Shader is spreading misinformation, just a lot of chicken little worst case scenario sometimes

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14 minutes ago, Dan Lambskin said:

 Nope.  Tanner mentioned elsewhere there is some Act that prohibits this because you can’t guarantee fair access to all students 

no online instruction during this time can be counted

Specific to Michigan?  I have not heard such a thing in Ohio.

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Just now, Galileo said:

Specific to Michigan?  I have not heard such a thing in Ohio.

Yes this was Michigan specifically 

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8 minutes ago, tjnc09 said:

Hindsight is 20/20.  There are a number of countries that didn't lockdown their population and haven't seen incredibly terrible infected rates.

 For those that handled it well, was their Government saying asymptomatic people should NOT get tested?

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45 minutes ago, tonydead said:

You can't explain away math.  Nobody is claiming the mortality rate is 3.5% anymore.  Most everyone agrees it's 1.0% or less.

Who are these people? Right now there are two countries that seem to have this "under control"; meaning, they did comprehensive testing, quarantining, isolation, and the health care system isn't currently overwhelmed - South Korea and China. They currently have mortality rates (defined by cases with outcomes) of 4%. For a 1% or less death rate that means these countries would need to be missing (despite randomly testing thousands of people *and* tracing/testing contacts of positive cases) like 75% of the people actually infected. That seems highly unlikely. For a the other countries in the top 10 of most infected we have a 33% mortality rate of cases with outcomes. Not sure how anyone with a straight face thinks that somehow those numbers are getting massaged to come in at 1% or lower.

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Just now, rcam said:

Who are these people? Right now there are two countries that seem to have this "under control"; meaning, they did comprehensive testing, quarantining, isolation, and the health care system isn't currently overwhelmed - South Korea and China. They currently have mortality rates (defined by cases with outcomes) of 4%. For a 1% or less death rate that means these countries would need to be missing (despite randomly testing thousands of people *and* tracing/testing contacts of positive cases) like 75% of the people actually infected. That seems highly unlikely. For a the other countries in the top 10 of most infected we have a 33% mortality rate of cases with outcomes. Not sure how anyone with a straight face thinks that somehow those numbers are getting massaged to come in at 1% or lower.

They are probably listening to experts saying things like it will end up averaging out to a .6% death rate, which is still a problem with a high infection rate.

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Went for a quick walk on the Jupiter Beach and was there in the middle of ALL Beaches being closed in Florida. We were asked to go immediately. 

Went to a bar/restaurant and they are now under order take out only here in Florida. 

I got the last draft poured, I teared up a little. 

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1 hour ago, fatguyinalittlecoat said:

YES YOU CAN.  If it takes a while for people to die. Stop spreading misinformation.

Indeed - and if you don't test dead people, then....

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16 minutes ago, Dan Lambskin said:
22 minutes ago, Galileo said:

Most schools are moving to an online format.  Certainly those days will count.

 Nope.  Tanner mentioned elsewhere there is some Act that prohibits this because you can’t guarantee fair access to all students 

no online instruction during this time can be counted

This is true locally, and I assume throughout Louisiana.

Lots of online resources are being suggested for all grades, especially high schoolers. Our local school district also supplied paper packets in English Language Arts and Mathematics for my son's grade. However ... none of this work is meant to be checked or graded, even after schools resume.

There are a few exceptions, but they all involve studies outside of the usual public-school system. For instance, my daughter is taking an algebra class that is in partnership with one of the local universities That course has always been online from the start -- even when she attends the class in her physical high school, the students are all in front of laptops logging in and doing problems online. Anyway, that particular class is supposed to kept up with, and supposedly all work will be graded ( :shrug: ).

My daughter's art school (optional program, but counts for HS credit) is also going fully online and will be assigning projects like normal and grading all material. They'll take attendance online every day, just like normal.

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37 minutes ago, Dan Lambskin said:

If I’m reading correctly state of Michigan isn’t waiving school hour requirements so kids could be going to schools well into the summer 

@Ilov80s hearing anything more about this? 

That’s their stance right now. We will see what they say if we (inevitably?) close down longer. 

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7 minutes ago, rcam said:

They currently have mortality rates (defined by cases with outcomes) of 4%. For a 1% or less death rate that means these countries would need to be missing (despite randomly testing thousands of people *and* tracing/testing contacts of positive cases) like 75% of the people actually infected. That seems highly unlikely.

Probably about 50 pages back by now, but someone linked to a study about China’s numbers saying they likely had missed about 86% of those actually infected due to testing limitations.  
 

found it-https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/03/13/science.abb3221

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