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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (15 Viewers)

DrJ said:
And then once those 5 weeks are up, unless absolutely nobody has it, it will once again start to spread exponentially...   you can't eliminate this.    It's a part of life now.    
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It should be clear that it won't be 5 weeks isolation and then we're good.

We'll have to do the same thing China is doing - they are working their asses off to chase down new infections on a daily basis.

 
Binky The Doormat said:
:confused:   I'm retired.  Protecting the nest egg and all.  

ETA:  sorry, there is a lot of discussion in the stock thread - yeah, my comments belong there (actually thought I posted it there - apologies)
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I’m sorry to have said that, i crossed the line.  Feeling a bit exhausted of this whole ordeal today.  A lot of people are going to be in rough shape financially and I made a hasty assumption regarding your situation. 

 
DrJ said:
And then once those 5 weeks are up, unless absolutely nobody has it, it will once again start to spread exponentially...   you can't eliminate this.    It's a part of life now.    
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It buys us time to get testing figured out without having everyone getting sick at the same time and then the hospitals are ####ed.

 
Otis said:
What is the takeaway from the article?

I, like you, am not sure what to make of a lot of this.  But I figure I'll put it in the hands of the experts and those folks who are telling the public what to do.  :shrug:
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Its been a dozen hours since I read it, and I am still not sure I was fully awake.  Grace Under Pressure was right.  The data and charts are interesting, and the breakdown sure makes it look like there is nothing we can do but let it run its course.  The greatest threat of community transmission has been in closely confined spaces, like in a home, family member to family member.  This can even be seen in that heartbreaking story about a family that had 3?  4?  people die from this.

But, as GUP said, the conclusions were very aggressive, which made the whole article seem agenda driven, instead of data driven, which was the whole basis of the first 28 minutes of the read.  He came on way too strong at the end, and almost seemed pissed off that anybody could see it any different.  At least, that's how I took it. 

interesting data and charts.  I still think it was worth the read.  Maybe skip the last two paragraphs the way you should skip the last two seasons of Dexter.

 
DrJ said:
Just ran to the store...    if I didn't watch the news I'd have no idea this was actually happening.   Everything seems totally normal, tons of cars and people out.     
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Same here

And my state has been “life sustaining businesses only “ for days

🙄

 
DrJ said:
And then once those 5 weeks are up, unless absolutely nobody has it, it will once again start to spread exponentially...   you can't eliminate this.    It's a part of life now.    
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It is extremely contagious and many of us are going to get it. The name of the game is not overwhelming the healthcare system and maybe we'll get lucky and a vaccine is developed and/or symptom reducing drugs are found in the meantime.

 
Andy Dufresne said:
If this article isn't sobering, nothing will be.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/19/health/new-jersey-coronavirus-family-members-killed/index.html

Coronavirus kills 3 family members and sickens 4 others after a dinner in New Jersey

By Faith Karimi and Rob Frehse, CNN

Updated 4:15 AM ET, Thu March 19, 2020

(CNN)A New Jersey mother died from coronavirus without knowing that her two children also got infected and died shortly before she did, The New York Times reported.

Grace Fusco, 73, died Wednesday and was unaware of the deaths of her oldest son and daughter from Covid-19, the disease caused by coronavirus.

A relative told the newspaper that four other children also have coronavirus and remain hospitalized -- three in critical condition. CNN has reached out to a family representative but has not heard back.

The infections appeared to have originated from a family dinner this month, the Times reported. It said the first person to die from coronavirus in New Jersey attended that gathering.

Grace Fusco's oldest daughter, Rita Fusco-Jackson, 55, of Freehold, New Jersey, died Friday. Shortly afterward, the family learned she had coronavirus. Her son, Carmine Fusco, of Bath, Pennsylvania, died just before his mother Wednesday.

Nearly 20 other relatives are quarantined at their homes and are grieving the loss separately, The Times said.
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Not sure if this was mentioned (this thread is moving FAST).... A third sibling passed in this family, making four total including the mother.  Terrible.  

Went for a walk with my GF and kids this afternoon.  Instead of going to a park, where they might be tempted to touch playground equipment, etc., we just walked to a nearby college campus and found a big grassy area for them to run around, throw a football, etc.  Eerily quiet during our walk.  Not a lot of traffic, and although we did see a few others on foot/bikes, it was almost all groups of 2 or less.  Seems like most are taking the stay-at-home and social distancing orders pretty seriously, although I'm sure there are other parts of town where it's not that way (not as much, anyway).  I'd imagine the stores are still fairly busy, but we are making a conscious effort to avoid places like that unless absolutely necessary. 

Ventura, CA in case anybody is wondering.  

 
Apple Jack said:
It is extremely contagious and many of us are going to get it. The name of the game is not overwhelming the healthcare system and maybe we'll get lucky and a vaccine is developed and/or symptom reducing drugs are found in the meantime.
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Like I say, I've heard the rationale.   Personally I'm not convinced and neither are millions upon millions of Americans.    That being said, my family IS practicing social distancing and I only went out to grab some stuff that's considered "non essential" and I won't be able to get for a few weeks now.      But I still see this as marginally more serious than the flu, and believe we are sacrificing too much for far too little gain.     

 
Shula-holic said:
At this point, I'm resigned to pretty much everyone is going to get it.  I read this article from the top health official in NJ

https://www.nj.com/coronavirus/2020/03/im-going-to-get-it-we-all-are-njs-top-health-official-says-as-she-leads-the-states-coronavirus-war.html

Hopefully we do enough to not overwhelm the hospitals and then we just have to re-start life.
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That was the big takeaway I got from Cuomo’s presser today.  Accepting that we’re likely to reach high infection levels, To your bottom point, what’s critical is to spread that out over 3-5 months versus 4-6 weeks.

 
DrJ said:
Like I say, I've heard the rationale.   Personally I'm not convinced and neither are millions upon millions of Americans.    That being said, my family IS practicing social distancing and I only went out to grab some stuff that's considered "non essential" and I won't be able to get for a few weeks now.      But I still see this as marginally more serious than the flu, and believe we are sacrificing too much for far too little gain.     
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You are not actually a Dr., are you?

 
DrJ said:
Like I say, I've heard the rationale.   Personally I'm not convinced and neither are millions upon millions of Americans.    That being said, my family IS practicing social distancing and I only went out to grab some stuff that's considered "non essential" and I won't be able to get for a few weeks now.      But I still see this as marginally more serious than the flu, and believe we are sacrificing too much for far too little gain.     
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Dr J, it’s far more serious than the flu. You may ultimately be right that sacrificing the economy is not worth it, it’s quite a gamble.  But where you’re wrong is your comparisons with the flu.  

 
DrJ said:
Like I say, I've heard the rationale.   Personally I'm not convinced and neither are millions upon millions of Americans.    That being said, my family IS practicing social distancing and I only went out to grab some stuff that's considered "non essential" and I won't be able to get for a few weeks now.     

But I still see this as marginally more serious than the flu, and believe we are sacrificing too much for far too little gain.     
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There have been a lot of people who entered this thread with that opinion, and later changed it when they became more educated about why the entire world is reacting the way it is about C19.

 
shader said:
Dr J, it’s far more serious than the flu. You may ultimately be right that sacrificing the economy is not worth it, it’s quite a gamble.  But where you’re wrong is your comparisons with the flu.  
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It's more serious - but I really don't think we know how much more serious.   It does spread more easily.     The mortality rate seems somewhat higher, but that's still unclear because the data is so truly limited.     Based on the ease of transfer I think millions of Americans have it right now already.   

 
DrJ said:
Like I say, I've heard the rationale.   Personally I'm not convinced and neither are millions upon millions of Americans.    That being said, my family IS practicing social distancing and I only went out to grab some stuff that's considered "non essential" and I won't be able to get for a few weeks now.      But I still see this as marginally more serious than the flu, and believe we are sacrificing too much for far too little gain.     
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is it possible the people directing strategy in the US and globally know more about the subject and are more equipped to handle it than you?  what would you put the chances at?  25%?  50%?  more?

 
shader said:
Dr J, it’s far more serious than the flu. You may ultimately be right that sacrificing the economy is not worth it, it’s quite a gamble.  But where you’re wrong is your comparisons with the flu.  
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He's entitled to his opinion, and there is some semi-solid analysis being done suggesting that the eventual mortality numbers (with decent care) will be far lower than current ugly projections.  At some point it is fair to question draconian (yet poorly enforced at times) gov't restrictions. 

Personally, I'm onboard for a fairly short while, to keep the medical establishment afloat, but I'm not for killing the economy completely when in the end this will, indeed, look like a very bad flu season when seen in the rear-view.

 
TheDirtyWord said:
That was the big takeaway I got from Cuomo’s presser today.  Accepting that we’re likely to reach high infection levels, To your bottom point, what’s critical is to spread that out over 3-5 months versus 4-6 weeks.
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I am starting to believe that this middle of the road, flatten the curve strategy is actually the worst thing that can be done.

The damage to the economy will be catastrophic, and most people  
will get sick anyway.

Id rather see a complete 3 week lockdown where you’re under arrest if you violate it (backed up by a govt sanctioned halt to all bills, and no paid furloughs for all employees)

Theoretically, the economy could restart in 3 weeks and the coronavirus (as well as the cold/flu) would be wiped out.

But I’m sure there are some underlying risks there that I’m not thinking about

 
Peyton Marino said:
is it possible the people directing strategy in the US and globally know more about the subject and are more equipped to handle it than you?  what would you put the chances at?  25%?  50%?  more?
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Yes, of course it is.    Is there a possibility they are overreacting or making poor policy decisions as well.    Yes, there's that chance too.

 
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proteus126 said:
He's entitled to his opinion, and there is some semi-solid analysis being done suggesting that the eventual mortality numbers (with decent care) will be far lower than current ugly projections.  At some point it is fair to question draconian (yet poorly enforced at times) gov't restrictions. 

Personally, I'm onboard for a fairly short while, to keep the medical establishment afloat, but I'm not for killing the economy completely when in the end this will, indeed, look like a very bad flu season when seen in the rear-view.
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It will look like that (if we're lucky) because of the Draconian measures.

 
NotSmart said:
There have been a lot of people who entered this thread with that opinion, and later changed it when they became more educated about why the entire world is reacting the way it is about C19.
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:hey: especially the impact on seniors and/or other serious existing conditions. and now the entire economy.

 
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DrJ said:
It's more serious - but I really don't think we know how much more serious.   It does spread more easily.     The mortality rate seems somewhat higher, but that's still unclear because the data is so truly limited.     Based on the ease of transfer I think millions of Americans have it right now already.   
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Millions of Americans don’t have it.  That’s a false assumption that doesn’t work numerically based on what we know.    In fact, everything in your above post is a guess. The data suggests that everything in your post is wrong.  
 

For you to make these claims, you’ll need to show your work.

 
shader said:
Millions of Americans don’t have it.  That’s a false assumption that doesn’t work numerically based on what we know.    In fact, everything in your above post is a guess. The data suggests that everything in your post is wrong.  
 

For you to make these claims, you’ll need to show your work.
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I think the word for that is truthiness.

 
Alex P Keaton said:
Went for a walk with the wife this afternoon.  Saw three different groups of 10-15 teenagers playing basketball and football.  Not a care in the world.  Social distancing hasn’t taken effect yet.
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Ugh. Hate that some don’t get it.  Ive walked or ran in the neighborhood just about every day.  Thankfully here its been pretty quiet streets.  Even people when walking step into grass or cross to avoid others.  Definitely a new thing...but always a polite smile and wave.

 
shader said:
Millions of Americans don’t have it.  That’s a false assumption that doesn’t work numerically based on what we know.    In fact, everything in your above post is a guess. The data suggests that everything in your post is wrong.  
 

For you to make these claims, you’ll need to show your work.
Click to expand...
What percentage of people have we randomly tested regardless of whether they said they had any symptoms or played on an NBA basketball team?   

 
Lots of stories about the vaccine that they're injecting people with.  Everyone should be aware that it's in Phase 1 which is only for safety and not for efficacy.  

Phase 1 studies are closely monitored and gather information about how a drug interacts with the human body. Researchers adjust dosing schemes based on animal data to find out how much of a drug the body can tolerate and what its acute side effects are.
Click to expand...

 
-fish- said:
You're kind of right, it is the difference between self-isolation and social distancing.   But to try to draw a distinction between whether a snack or a meal is acceptable is beyond ridiculous.   If getting take-out from a local shop is acceptable, what you get is irrelevant.   
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100% agreed. If somebody's taking recommended precautions of distancing from other people and cleaning hands and is complying with their local government orders, let em get a bagel once in a while for God's sake without all this hand-wringing.

 
sho nuff said:
Ugh. Hate that some don’t get it.  Ive walked or ran in the neighborhood just about every day.  Thankfully here its been pretty quiet streets.  Even people when walking step into grass or cross to avoid others.  Definitely a new thing...but always a polite smile and wave.
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When I take a walk I carry a custom made 6 foot ruler that I poke at people who get too close to me.

 
DrJ said:
Yes, of course it is.    Is there a possibility they are overreacting or making poor policy decisions as well.    Yes, there's that chance too.
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I would say given the current publicly and privately available information + the expertise of the professionals in our country and abroad, there is extremely low likelihood they are overreacting.  I don't expect most to grasp this concept, but after this is over it could end up the case that we did in fact overreact - but only because of information that was not available at the time and that couldn't have been predicted.  As of right now the current course being taken is extremely probably correct given everything we know.

The broader point here is that you in particular have ~0% chance of evaluating the current situation better than the experts.

 
DrJ said:
Like I say, I've heard the rationale.   Personally I'm not convinced and neither are millions upon millions of Americans.    That being said, my family IS practicing social distancing and I only went out to grab some stuff that's considered "non essential" and I won't be able to get for a few weeks now.      But I still see this as marginally more serious than the flu, and believe we are sacrificing too much for far too little gain.     
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Would anything convince you? 

 
DrJ said:
What percentage of people have we randomly tested regardless of whether they said they had any symptoms or played on an NBA basketball team?   
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NBA players may have higher percentages than the population due to their exposure to someone that had the virus. It came to the United States in late January.  

For it to spread to millions of Americans would necessitate an R0 value that is significantly higher than any estimates we have from the scientific community. So why would you form the gut opinion that you have when there’s no data that backs it up?

 
Best data I’ve seen on US testing is as follows:

23,203 positive tests

156,071 negative tests

Many states also don’t report negative tests.

 
The General said:
No I meant your plan if we didn’t do all this and you are wrong and millions of people need serious treatment at the same time.
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I think going into overdrive to ramp up hospitals wouldn't have been bad.   Beyond that it all seems majorly overdone.   

 
shader said:
Best data I’ve seen on US testing is as follows:

23,203 positive tests

156,071 negative tests

Many states also don’t report negative tests.
Click to expand...
Now I'm going to assume those figures are biased somewhat towards people that already had symptoms.   So random population is gonna be lower, but that's 12% positive out of all tests.     That would put us around 37 million Americans.     Let's assume that randomly it's only 1/10 of that, so 3.7....   

 
CurlyNight said:
There are all kinds of people out there, still too many the flu kills more. So many are still looking at mortality and figure if I get it, I'm young and healthy and will quarantine for 14 days while I get through it. I have a friend still on the fence about this. I gave up on her.
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The flu kills over 6 months with a tremendously low mortality rate. Completely different. 

 
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