Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
Big League Chew

*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread

Recommended Posts

5 minutes ago, Dan Lambskin said:

If I’m reading correctly state of Michigan isn’t waiving school hour requirements so kids could be going to schools well into the summer 

@Ilov80s hearing anything more about this? 

Most schools are moving to an online format.  Certainly those days will count.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, Keerock said:

Did I hear them say 80% of people tested so far in US were negative?

I haven't read that but wouldn't surprise me if it's higher that. Flu is still going around along the common cold....and allergies. With all the news coverage of coronavirus, someone with a runny nose or a slight cough could be "omg, I got coronavirus!"

(Not saying people shouldn't get tested)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
23 minutes ago, Phil Elliott said:

With the the NY soft lockdown, lots of people leaving Manhattan and renting Airbnb units in Hamptons snd Hudson Valley, raising rental rates 2-3x.

Express deliveries on the East End up this week over the norm.

(FedExGuy)

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, shader said:

This is a no-win situation for Trump.  A lockdown destroys the economy but stops the virus.  Ignoring the virus keeps the economy running and leads to a massive amount of deaths. 

Trying to go down the middle is the "safe" choice and possibly the politically wise choice.  But it's not without large risks of it's own (economy still tanks and just a few less deaths)

 

 

America already has a really bad problem with suicides.  If the economy tanks for months, people struggle to find work, pay bills, etc, there will be an adverse impact to mental health.

It's a difficult balancing act and unfortunately the president (Trump or whoever it would have been) will get criticized no matter what they do.

 

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1
  • Thinking 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, tonydead said:

I like that.  I was saying 1.0% when a lot of people in here was saying 3.5%.  Now I'm starting to think it's lower than 1.0% and that's all I'm trying to say.

Just make sure you keep keeping tabs on who said what first and how much smarter you are than everyone else. Unless of course you're not. We all love getting this critical info from you.

  • Like 4
  • Thinking 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, Keerock said:

Did I hear them say 80% of people tested so far in US were negative?

Dunno, but that's not the case in Louisiana. Rate of negatives here is only 54.25% so far :( 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, Galileo said:

Most schools are moving to an online format.  Certainly those days will count.

 Nope.  Tanner mentioned elsewhere there is some Act that prohibits this because you can’t guarantee fair access to all students 

no online instruction during this time can be counted

https://www.freep.com/story/news/education/2020/03/20/michigan-department-education-schools-online-learning-coronavirus/2883849001/

 

Edited by Dan Lambskin

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
14 minutes ago, shader said:

This is a no-win situation for Trump.  A lockdown destroys the economy but stops the virus.  Ignoring the virus keeps the economy running and leads to a massive amount of deaths. 

Trying to go down the middle is the "safe" choice and possibly the politically wise choice.  But it's not without large risks of it's own (economy still tanks and just a few less deaths)

 

 

Edit: on mobile and thought I was responding to political thread. 

Edited by Mr. Ham
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
11 minutes ago, shader said:

Italy: 5,985 new cases - 627 new deaths

Maybe somethings off but worldometer is showing 15,147 new cases for Italy.

Edited by Random

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, tjnc09 said:

America already has a really bad problem with suicides.  If the economy tanks for months, people struggle to find work, pay bills, etc, there will be an adverse impact to mental health.

It's a difficult balancing act and unfortunately the president (Trump or whoever it would have been) will get criticized no matter what they do.

 

More precisely chose not to do in a timely fashion.

  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Doug B said:

Dunno, but that's not the case in Louisiana. Rate of negatives here is only 54.25% so far :( 

NYS did 10k tests yesterday and had 2950 positives.  Most of the testing (and cases) in the US are currently coming from here as we’re one of the few places that have testing ramped up (Cuomo was saying on a per capita basis its the highest in the world).

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

"Mr. President, are you aware there are surfaces on these cruise ships and this virus lives on surfaces?" Why didn't everyone just laugh at the question and move on?

  • Like 2
  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, BeTheMatch said:

Just make sure you keep keeping tabs on who said what first and how much smarter you are than everyone else. Unless of course you're not. We all love getting this critical info from you.

Math isn't everyone's subject.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Random said:

Maybe somethings off but worldometer is 15,147 new cases.

It updated recently. I saw what shader saw when I looked earlier.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Tom Skerritt said:

Educated estimates by smart people are saying that a 0.6% mortality rate is what we can expect when this is all over.

So just a shade under 2 million deaths over the next year?  With the majority being older or those with pre ex conditions?  We have 2.8m US deaths in a given year already - with the majority being older and those with pre ex conditions.  Tough question to ask, but will all of these “lockdowns” and the destruction of the economy be worth it when this is all over?

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, glock said:

More precisely chose not to do in a timely fashion.

Hindsight is 20/20.  There are a number of countries that didn't lockdown their population and haven't seen incredibly terrible infected rates.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
16 minutes ago, shader said:

Italy: 5,985 new cases - 627 new deaths

Italy’s death rate running at over 8 percent. Scary numbers at this point. 

  • Sad 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, jplvr said:

It updated recently. I saw what shader saw when I looked earlier.

Appears to be back at 5986 now.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
37 minutes ago, Phil Elliott said:

We go thru a case of Fiji water each week. Best tasting water we have found. Cost is relative to each person. :shrug:

What about the cost to the planet?

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
25 minutes ago, Sneegor said:

There is no need for this.  Please continue to just post useful info like you have been thanks.

Spreading misinformation is part of the issue.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
22 minutes ago, Dan Lambskin said:

If I’m reading correctly state of Michigan isn’t waiving school hour requirements so kids could be going to schools well into the summer 

@Ilov80s hearing anything more about this? 

Yeah this is horrible, my daughter has the biggest case of "senioritis" already, just got her a Chromebook from the school district yesterday... I can't imagine what she's gonna do when she hears this.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Apple Jack said:

Spreading misinformation is part of the issue.

I don't believe Shader is spreading misinformation, just a lot of chicken little worst case scenario sometimes

  • Laughing 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 minutes ago, Dan Lambskin said:

 Nope.  Tanner mentioned elsewhere there is some Act that prohibits this because you can’t guarantee fair access to all students 

no online instruction during this time can be counted

Specific to Michigan?  I have not heard such a thing in Ohio.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Galileo said:

Specific to Michigan?  I have not heard such a thing in Ohio.

Yes this was Michigan specifically 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, tjnc09 said:

Hindsight is 20/20.  There are a number of countries that didn't lockdown their population and haven't seen incredibly terrible infected rates.

 For those that handled it well, was their Government saying asymptomatic people should NOT get tested?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
45 minutes ago, tonydead said:

You can't explain away math.  Nobody is claiming the mortality rate is 3.5% anymore.  Most everyone agrees it's 1.0% or less.

Who are these people? Right now there are two countries that seem to have this "under control"; meaning, they did comprehensive testing, quarantining, isolation, and the health care system isn't currently overwhelmed - South Korea and China. They currently have mortality rates (defined by cases with outcomes) of 4%. For a 1% or less death rate that means these countries would need to be missing (despite randomly testing thousands of people *and* tracing/testing contacts of positive cases) like 75% of the people actually infected. That seems highly unlikely. For a the other countries in the top 10 of most infected we have a 33% mortality rate of cases with outcomes. Not sure how anyone with a straight face thinks that somehow those numbers are getting massaged to come in at 1% or lower.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, rcam said:

Who are these people? Right now there are two countries that seem to have this "under control"; meaning, they did comprehensive testing, quarantining, isolation, and the health care system isn't currently overwhelmed - South Korea and China. They currently have mortality rates (defined by cases with outcomes) of 4%. For a 1% or less death rate that means these countries would need to be missing (despite randomly testing thousands of people *and* tracing/testing contacts of positive cases) like 75% of the people actually infected. That seems highly unlikely. For a the other countries in the top 10 of most infected we have a 33% mortality rate of cases with outcomes. Not sure how anyone with a straight face thinks that somehow those numbers are getting massaged to come in at 1% or lower.

They are probably listening to experts saying things like it will end up averaging out to a .6% death rate, which is still a problem with a high infection rate.

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Went for a quick walk on the Jupiter Beach and was there in the middle of ALL Beaches being closed in Florida. We were asked to go immediately. 

Went to a bar/restaurant and they are now under order take out only here in Florida. 

I got the last draft poured, I teared up a little. 

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, fatguyinalittlecoat said:

YES YOU CAN.  If it takes a while for people to die. Stop spreading misinformation.

Indeed - and if you don't test dead people, then....

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
16 minutes ago, Dan Lambskin said:
22 minutes ago, Galileo said:

Most schools are moving to an online format.  Certainly those days will count.

 Nope.  Tanner mentioned elsewhere there is some Act that prohibits this because you can’t guarantee fair access to all students 

no online instruction during this time can be counted

This is true locally, and I assume throughout Louisiana.

Lots of online resources are being suggested for all grades, especially high schoolers. Our local school district also supplied paper packets in English Language Arts and Mathematics for my son's grade. However ... none of this work is meant to be checked or graded, even after schools resume.

There are a few exceptions, but they all involve studies outside of the usual public-school system. For instance, my daughter is taking an algebra class that is in partnership with one of the local universities That course has always been online from the start -- even when she attends the class in her physical high school, the students are all in front of laptops logging in and doing problems online. Anyway, that particular class is supposed to kept up with, and supposedly all work will be graded ( :shrug: ).

My daughter's art school (optional program, but counts for HS credit) is also going fully online and will be assigning projects like normal and grading all material. They'll take attendance online every day, just like normal.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
37 minutes ago, Dan Lambskin said:

If I’m reading correctly state of Michigan isn’t waiving school hour requirements so kids could be going to schools well into the summer 

@Ilov80s hearing anything more about this? 

That’s their stance right now. We will see what they say if we (inevitably?) close down longer. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, rcam said:

They currently have mortality rates (defined by cases with outcomes) of 4%. For a 1% or less death rate that means these countries would need to be missing (despite randomly testing thousands of people *and* tracing/testing contacts of positive cases) like 75% of the people actually infected. That seems highly unlikely.

Probably about 50 pages back by now, but someone linked to a study about China’s numbers saying they likely had missed about 86% of those actually infected due to testing limitations.  
 

found it-https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/03/13/science.abb3221

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
29 minutes ago, Doug B said:
42 minutes ago, Keerock said:

Did I hear them say 80% of people tested so far in US were negative?

Dunno, but that's not the case in Louisiana. Rate of negatives here is only 54.25% so far :( 

I wouldn't put too much into those numbers, it's all about the triage before the test

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
1 minute ago, matttyl said:

Probably about 50 pages back by now, but someone linked to a study about China’s numbers saying they likely had missed about 86% of those actually infected due to testing limitations.  
 

found it-https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/03/13/science.abb3221

From your article.

 

We estimate 86% of all infections were undocumented (95% CI: [82%–90%]) prior to 23 January 2020 travel restrictions

Edited by MTskibum
  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, MTskibum said:

From your article.

 

We estimate 86% of all infections were undocumented (95% CI: [82%–90%]) prior to 23 January 2020 travel restrictions

Uh huh.  So they were undocumented positives, but have apparently since recovered?  Means the same in the end, wouldn’t it?  Others have said that we likely have multiple times the current infected amount.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
20 minutes ago, Sammy3469 said:

And fwiw, NYS’s death rate is 1.29%.

IMO, a better way to break this down would be that in NYS, the current ratio of reported number of fatalities-to-date vs. the reported number of  positive-tests-to-date = 1.29%.

Bear in mind that:

- The huge majority of people have not been tested (there could be tons of people infected)
- People tested too early could still be infected (some people have tested positive after multiple tests)
- There are any number of people currently hospitalized that are neither recovered nor deceased (so their outcomes are TBD)
 

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, matttyl said:

Probably about 50 pages back by now, but someone linked to a study about China’s numbers saying they likely had missed about 86% of those actually infected due to testing limitations.  
 

found it-https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/03/13/science.abb3221

IIRC, it is a math (statistics) paper not a empiric verification of how many are actually had/have tested positive in real life. Thus it is similar to those studies that came out of Hong Kong when everyone was hot on "proving" the Chinese government were underestimating the numbers.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Redwes25 said:

Can we avoid rumors like this.  We see articles, etc. lets post them but not word of mouth rumors.  

Agree. My apologies. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 minutes ago, rcam said:

Who are these people? Right now there are two countries that seem to have this "under control"; meaning, they did comprehensive testing, quarantining, isolation, and the health care system isn't currently overwhelmed - South Korea and China. They currently have mortality rates (defined by cases with outcomes) of 4%. For a 1% or less death rate that means these countries would need to be missing (despite randomly testing thousands of people *and* tracing/testing contacts of positive cases) like 75% of the people actually infected. That seems highly unlikely. For a the other countries in the top 10 of most infected we have a 33% mortality rate of cases with outcomes. Not sure how anyone with a straight face thinks that somehow those numbers are getting massaged to come in at 1% or lower.

Since 80% of the cases have little or zero symptoms it is very likely.  I'd point to the WHO estimates of 1% (and apparently it's dropped since then) but I've wasted enough time to go back and find that again.  If you think China, with a population of 1.4 billion people did comprehensive testing I don't know what to tell you.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Arkansas governor just announced closure of gyms, bars and restaurants.  

Little behind the curve.  

  • Like 1
  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
32 minutes ago, matttyl said:

So just a shade under 2 million deaths over the next year?  With the majority being older or those with pre ex conditions?  We have 2.8m US deaths in a given year already - with the majority being older and those with pre ex conditions.  Tough question to ask, but will all of these “lockdowns” and the destruction of the economy be worth it when this is all over?

Just realized that my math of 2 million deaths using the assumed .6% fatality rate assumes that all ~325m Americans get infected.  My bad.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

I'm not trying to start an argument in any way but I want to reach out to folks in the MidWest who are watching this on TV and kind of looking at it like "It's not happening here yet"

-Even if you are NOT impacted personally and by that I mean a loved one becomes gravely ill with this thing...you are going to be inconvenienced in ways you had not thought of. I am cringing the closings of the one place I tend to take out my anger, the tennis courts. But why is it fair for me to go play there and the guy who works out in a gym to release his steam, his livelihood has been taken away? Golf courses! When are those going to be closed so the uber rich and a few blue collar types really feel the pinch of all this? Oh and I'm scheduled to play at 7:30AM tomorrow morn with my usual group of 12 guys on 3 courts round robin doubles so it's not like I am going to stop playing, we refuse. 

-I would stock up on anything you didn't think you needed to or else you are going to be one of those folks camping out at the grocery store or wherever at the break of dawn trying to intercept trucks with toilet paper and other things you will feel are essential items with everything closed. You don't have live sports to keep you occupied at home, you might want to think about books, music, anything you can still get on Amazon and have delivered because you are likely going to see sharp changes in your day to day life for some time and there isn't much you can do about it even if you go MOP on everyone which "I/Me" highly suggest you NOT do right now. 

No panic but make use of the time you have before things get crazy in your small town or area. I do think the further you are away form large groups of folks or big cities your chances of getting it are less but it only takes one or two folks coming back from visiting their stuck up Uncle in the big city to spread it to everyone where you are. 

 

Edited by Ministry of Pain
  • Like 1
  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This blog was linked earlier today ... can't find the original posting, so I'm making a new post here:
 

Coronavirus: The Hammer and the Dance (Medium.com, 3/19/2020)

Summary of the article: Strong coronavirus measures today should only last a few weeks, there shouldn’t be a big peak of infections afterwards, and it can all be done for a reasonable cost to society, saving millions of lives along the way. If we don’t take these measures, tens of millions will be infected, many will die, along with anybody else that requires intensive care, because the healthcare system will have collapsed.

...

One thing I found interesting was this guy's opinion on the general public wearing masks (see below). If you buy into what the author is selling, [icon] is pretty vindicated in general regarding masks. And, if this guy was right ... authorities kind of misled the American people about the efficacy of wearing masks in public -- although there's been a lot of public conflation between advice about surgical earloop masks vs. advice about N95 respirators. 

Quote

 

Lower Public Contagiousness

The public is scared. The coronavirus is new. There’s so much we don’t know how to do yet! People haven’t learned to stop hand-shaking. They still hug. They don’t open doors with their elbow. They don’t wash their hands after touching a door knob. They don’t disinfect tables before sitting.

Once we have enough masks, we can use them outside of the healthcare system too. Right now, it’s better to keep masks for healthcare workers. But if they weren’t scarce, people should wear them in their daily lives, making it less likely that they infect other people when sick, and with proper training also reducing the likelihood that the wearers get infected. (In the meantime, wearing something is better than nothing.)

All of these are pretty cheap ways to reduce the transmission rate. The less this virus propagates, the fewer measures we’ll need in the future to contain it. But we need time to educate people on all these measures and equip them.

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, fatguyinalittlecoat said:

YES YOU CAN.  If it takes a while for people to die. Stop spreading misinformation.

Strangely enough, this is the one, tiny silver lining I'm hoping will be the Achilles heel of this bastard bug.  Once testing is finally ramped up and you know you have it, I'm hoping there will be treatments soon to help lessen the progression.  Whether that be the malaria drug, one of the anti-virals, or some other bolt from the blue.  This disease has a long progression that is obviously killing our hospital bed space concerns, but maybe we'll eventually use that time to our advantage. 🤞

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, msommer said:

I wouldn't put too much into those numbers, it's all about the triage before the test

Since everywhere is doing things differently testing wise, the statistics will vary greatly. Where I am, they don't have enough healthcare people and they don't want people coming in to medical facilities unless it is absolutely life threatening. So there will be people that would likely test positive that aren't getting tested at all. Even at hospitals, they have so many sick people to worry about that they aren't trying to test everyone. They are more concerned with what to do with them and trying to treat them. Several people have died that never got tested. IMO, the important number is how many people are requiring hospitalization, as you can only put so many people in the hospital. Whatever the statistics may or may not show isn't going to change that if someone is in grave condition FOR ANY REASON, there will be no way to treat him or her if the hospitals are full.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, MTskibum said:
12 minutes ago, matttyl said:

Probably about 50 pages back by now, but someone linked to a study about China’s numbers saying they likely had missed about 86% of those actually infected due to testing limitations.  
 

found it-https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/03/13/science.abb3221

From your article.

 

We estimate 86% of all infections were undocumented (95% CI: [82%–90%]) prior to 23 January 2020 travel restrictions

Good find and good post. I had seen that article and completely glossed over the point in red.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Watching DeWine's press conference right now.  Very somber.  He personally knew Ohio's first death.  :(

  • Laughing 1
  • Sad 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
20 minutes ago, matttyl said:

Probably about 50 pages back by now, but someone linked to a study about China’s numbers saying they likely had missed about 86% of those actually infected due to testing limitations.  
 

found it-https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/03/13/science.abb3221

Unless I misread this... it is 86% were undocumented before stuff got seriously out of hand. Specifically:

"We estimate 86% of all infections were undocumented (95% CI: [82%–90%]) prior to 23 January 2020 travel restrictions."

 

This isn't saying that they missed 86% of all the cases period. It is saying they closed the barn doors too late. Two very different messages.

Edited by IrishTwinkie
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Ministry of Pain said:

I'm not trying to start an argument in any way but I want to reach out to folks in the MidWest who are watching this on TV and kind of looking at it like "It's not happening here yet"

It's like folks are watching people in all these different places getting hit by trains, while they themselves are standing on train tracks and not even considering maybe they should get out of the way.

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Restore formatting

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.