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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (13 Viewers)

TwinTurbo said:
Here are my conclusions to date based on my own research

1. This originated in China in Nov and was probably in the US by late Dec/early Jan, particularly in the Seattle area.  Agree

2. The real number of cases to date in the US is 10x than what is currently confirmed. So 300,000 instead of 30,000 as of today.  Agree that the real case load is like 5-10x higher than we believe

3. Over 30% of cases are asymptomatic. They show no symptoms, don't get sick, but can spread it.   Possible, but what are you basing this figure on.  Have seen stuff that is all over the map from "very few" to "86%" of cases are asymptomatic.  As such, I have no idea what to believe, but given the South Korea tested the heck out of their population and found very few asymptomatic cases, I'd bet your number is too high.

4. The real mortality rate is between .1 - .5%. Slightly worse than the flu.  As above, what are you basing this on?  South Korea was ALL OVER THIS and even they were only able to produce a .7% CFR.  As such, that seems like best case scenario to me.  Overburden the healthcare system and it can clearly be 5x or more of that figure.

I think our government officials are taking the right approach and that this will peak in 4 weeks and drop off within 8 weeks which will also coincide with warmer weather.  I, too, am hopeful about the warmer weather and that our government is starting to do the right thing.  Am concerned about our PPE shortage, our lack of testing, and our collective inability to act BEFORE it's too late.  But agree that the peak is likely 4 weeks away.  FWIW, had we acted sooner it could be 1-2 weeks away.

I reserve the right to be wrong about all of these things, but I think it accurate. I don't think you are wrong so much as overly optimistic on the % of asymptomatic cases and CFR.  But I hope you are right.
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Interesting thoughts, my opinions in bold above.

 
Ron Swanson said:
It almost is by default with most businesses closed, bars closed, restaurants delivery or takeout only.  The only thing left to shut down are the beaches and boat ramps. The beaches are far less crowded now that they shut down car access and are enforcing distancing rules. As long as it remains the same as a city sidewalk where people go out for walks and maintain distance I think that makes sense. The people driving to the boat ramps and taking their boats out and congregating on sandbars need to stop. Want to go out and fish? Fine.  Congregate and party on a sandbar? Not so much.
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Beaches already got shut down.

 
Grace Under Pressure said:
The church thing though? Shut it down people, c’mon. 
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That is WAY too tricky to legislate imo.

Many churches, and people, have made that choice on their own, but we probably don't want the government legislating that (yet).

ETA - Here is the notice for the Lexington catholic Diocese:

LEXINGTON — All public Masses in the Catholic Diocese of Lexington will be suspended as of Tuesday, March 17, until further notice. Funerals will be permitted as long as maximum care is given to assuring the recommended social distancing. Other events should be rescheduled as much as possible. 

 
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yeah, in my haste, didn't mean to sound like I was panicking. Totally not. However I wanted, for myself, to grab a few things so that hopefully I don't have to leave my home at all for several weeks. And I wanted to do that now, rather than fight the inevitable ensuing crowd later. I think folks might be a tad sensitive up in here and adding tone to posts that's not there. 

At any rate, got a couple cases of beer, and a couple of fifths of good bourbon, so I'm ready to hunker with my two kids. 

Stay safe, GBs. 

 
Sinn Fein said:
That is WAY too tricky to legislate imo.

Many churches, and people, have made that choice on their own, but we probably don't want the government legislating that (yet).
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Agreed.  The ones in our area, including mine, have made the decision to go online only for 4 weeks.  But I guarantee if there is a government order gatherings of 10 or more are outlawed indefinitely, churches will meet in defiance of it.  In fact, they'd be more likely to gather at that point than if the current recommendations just hang out there in the wind for a while.

 
Perhaps this has already been discussed, but I just checked our worldometer and saw that the new case growth rate in NYC is crazy high.  Do we think this is real or a function of more testing?  If the former, what can be done?  Is this our Wuhan?  Will be seal the border and cut people off from leaving the city (i.e. a true lockdown)?

 
Morton Muffley said:
Perhaps this has already been discussed, but I just checked our worldometer and saw that the new case growth rate in NYC is crazy high.  Do we think this is real or a function of more testing?  If the former, what can be done?  Is this our Wuhan?  Will be seal the border and cut people off from leaving the city (i.e. a true lockdown)?
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Function of more testing.   There’s already millions infected.  

 
IvanKaramazov said:
I have a friend who works for the CDC, very high up, very well-connected.  Just got off the phone with him.

Ivan: Mr. X, is there anything I should know to keep me and my family safe in the coming days?

Mr. X: Yes, actually, there is.  Whatever you do, don't go to Detroit.  Trust me on this one.

Ivan: You mean there's coronavirus in Detroit?

Mr. X: No, I was there a couple of years ago, and it's a ####-hole.  You should stay away.
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have a nice season guy

 
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Morton Muffley said:
Perhaps this has already been discussed, but I just checked our worldometer and saw that the new case growth rate in NYC is crazy high.  Do we think this is real or a function of more testing?  If the former, what can be done?  Is this our Wuhan?  Will be seal the border and cut people off from leaving the city (i.e. a true lockdown)?
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The massive growth of confirmed cases is a result of increased testing. Most of what is now being confirmed could have been confirmed days, or even a week earlier, if they hadn't had to wait for the tests. 

As for sealing the border of the city, if it were possible, yes they should, if simply to protect the rest of the country from them. 

 
facook said:
Wow really?  I thought churches were adhering to the 25 person max recommendation given by CDC last week.  All of the churches in my area of Oregon are either closed or online only.
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The reporter that asked it said there were reports of some Ohio churches still gathering today.    :(  

I would hope that they are in the distinct ignorant minority.

 
Morton Muffley said:
Perhaps this has already been discussed, but I just checked our worldometer and saw that the new case growth rate in NYC is crazy high.  Do we think this is real or a function of more testing?  If the former, what can be done?  Is this our Wuhan?  Will be seal the border and cut people off from leaving the city (i.e. a true lockdown)?
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I think it's a function of more testing. Again when we learned last week that the most of the Brooklyn Nets had covid, that means tens of thousands of New Yorkers already had it. The important numbers to track are severe cases and fatalities and that definitely hasn't peaked yet. 

A full lockdown is definitely on the table although I don't think that will provide much additional benefit at this point and may actually make things worse. 

 
Now that Ohio has issued a stay at home order I can't wait to see the argument from our company that we are "critical manufacturing". 🙄

 
Ministry of Pain said:
Along the lines of your last many posts, do you look down on the golf community that is going out there and playing all day right now? I'm still playing Tennis and am booked solid for the next week or two but I do feel a little guilty going and showing up to play and seeing 16 Soccer Fields on the other side of the hill completely empty or close to it. I'm just asking is it fair? Because I am likely to continue playing until I absolutely cannot get into the courts. They will not allow more than 4 on a Court right now and they shut down all organized leagues, etc...but the social groups are still allowed to play or in groups of 4 with a coach or instructor. 

Another one to think about is all the boaters down here gathering at the sand bars just offshore or even in the Intercoastal waterways, are they going to close all the boat docks?
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They should shut down golf courses and pad lock tennis courts. Boat docks should also be closed. :shrug:

And the reason we need to do those things is exactly because of your thinking with "continue playing until I absolutely cannot get into the courts"

 
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shader said:
Almost everything you wrote here is wrong.
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Lol, ok. It's mathematically and scientifically impossible for this to have only arrived here recently if it's as contagious as is being reported. Reports of a contagion rate which I fully embrace as true. The panic inducing reporting of the spread rate while trying to act like it's all happening in some narrow window is a neat trick though.

 
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TwinTurbo said:
I think it's a function of more testing. Again when we learned last week that the most of the Brooklyn Nets had covid, that means tens of thousands of New Yorkers already had it. The important numbers to track are severe cases and fatalities and that definitely hasn't peaked yet. 

A full lockdown is definitely on the table although I don't think that will provide much additional benefit at this point and may actually make things worse. 
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Tens of thousands?   Probably way more.  

 
top dog said:
Now that Ohio has issued a stay at home order I can't wait to see the argument from our company that we are "critical manufacturing". 🙄
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That is a bummer... unfortunately not a very satisfactory answer to that question on the FAQ site:

What if I think my business should be closed but I'm still being asked to operate?

Essential businesses will remain open during the Stay at Home order to provide services that are vital to the lives of Ohioans. Those businesses include, but are not limited to, pharmacies, certain government offices, and restaurants providing take-out meals. If you work for an essential business, you should continue to practice social distancing and should stay at home outside of work hours. If you believe your business is nonessential but are still being asked to show up to work, you may discuss with your employer.

 
Morton Muffley said:
Interesting thoughts, my opinions in bold above.
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SK also has about six thousand of it's total approx 9,000 cases still active, i.e. without outcome which likely will change the calculation there.
Here's another stat. Italy has approx 12,500 closed cases. Of that 5,500 have died. That seems a mite more than 0.7%
That may very well also be a worthless statistic, but maybe not less so than other numbers derived from "poster's own research"

 
facook said:
Agreed.  The ones in our area, including mine, have made the decision to go online only for 4 weeks.  But I guarantee if there is a government order gatherings of 10 or more are outlawed indefinitely, churches will meet in defiance of it.  In fact, they'd be more likely to gather at that point than if the current recommendations just hang out there in the wind for a while.
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Then they are part of the problem

 
NotSmart said:
What business are you in?

I'm in IT - I feel very fortunate that I can WFH.
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Yeah I also feel fortunate that IT and health care are basically the 2 industries that gain increased importance from this.    Those may be the 2 budgets the country doesn’t decrease as we hit the new Great Depression. 

 
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Cowboysfan8 said:
So factories are closing or this is a “shutdown” like Pa 
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This is from the Ohio FAQ:

Will grocery stores be open?

Yes, essential services will still be operational including, but not limited to:

Grocery stores
Gas stations
Pharmacies
Police stations
Fire stations
Hospitals, clinics and healthcare operations
Garbage/sanitation
Public transportation
Public benefits (i.e. SNAP, Medicaid) hotlines

 
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NotSmart said:
What business are you in?

I'm in IT - I feel very fortunate that I can WFH.
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I have a title, but I just tell people I'm the maintenance manager.  

the order specifically exempts people doing maintenance of buildings, which even though I don't really do the work, I manage the group who does.

 
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