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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (13 Viewers)
- Thread starter Big League Chew
- Start date
parasaurolophus
Footballguy
Only because it is the summer olympics.
Winter Olympics they would be like whats the big deal? Hockey players wear masks.
shader
Footballguy
But we know the dead and the hospitalized. We also have a General R0 rate and an idea of when it first came to NYC.
Grace Under Pressure
Footballguy
MoP math? Kidding aside, I thought 5% of cases need hospitalization (severe cases) and roughly 13% mortality rate among those hospitalized. That’s from Worldometer front page statistics (which does include China and non-China).
500K cases, 25K hospitalizations, 3,250 deaths.
However seem to recall Governor Cuomo saying they expect 110K hospitalizations in the state overall. That would be 14K deaths.
So obviously my math sucks, would be glad to hear projections based on better info than this.
facook
Footballguy
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Italian Mayors & Regional Presidents losing it
"I hear you wanna throw graduation parties. I'm gonna send the police over. With flamethrowers."
"I hear you wanna throw graduation parties. I'm gonna send the police over. With flamethrowers."
skol asylum
Footballguy
This *1000000000
Shut. It. All. Down. Now.
No flights. Only essentials running.
Complete federal lockdown. For 28 days.
Give the people a plan. A target and an exit strategy. That will help enforcement and stabilize markets and the economy.
Chemical X
Footballguy
Devastated by the italian situation. 5400 deaths is crazy. I am trying to figure out how this has happened. Older population, with virtually every household multi generational. I suspect the smoking culture has made people more susceptible to this virus. Was it the tourism and tourists? This seems much much worse in the North, where the historic sites are not as prevalent. My friends are scared to death. i can’t imagine the financial toll.
Politician Spock
Footballguy
Mike Damone
Footballguy
skol asylum
Footballguy
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
It is or has been about 5% worldwide that need hospitalization or are deemed "Serious"
In the United States so far it's been about 2% but that doesn't mean we can't hit anywhere between what I posted and what you are asking about or adding to the projections...yeah either way it's not very good.
5,600 I projected based on Spock, yours would push that to about 12,500 deaths in NYC alone...that's a terrible number and we all know that could be way off. What if even more test positive since they are packed in tight and even people just moving about in their apartment buildings will spread it to others in other units...what if we have 1,000,000 infected? 50,000 that need hospitalization and the death toll rises to between 25,000-35,000+ just in NYC
tamales
Footballguy
Should change his name to Khan
Mike Damone
Footballguy
What would you consider essential, not playing a gotcha game or anything just curious where you would draw the line.
Angry Beavers
Footballguy
That is just it. Even essential running will get abused by many I am afraid without strict enforcement and fines.
Politician Spock
Footballguy
McCoy : Dear Lord. You think we're intelligent enough to... suppose... what if this thing were used where life already exists?
Spock : It would destroy such life in favor of its new matrix.
McCoy : Its "new matrix"? Do you have any idea what you're saying?
Spock : I was not attempting to evaluate its moral implications, Doctor. As a matter of cosmic history, it has always been easier to destroy than to create.
McCoy : Not anymore; now we can do both at the same time! According to myth, the Earth was created in six days. Now, watch out! Here comes Genesis! We'll do it for you in six minutes!
Spock : Really, Dr. McCoy. You must learn to govern your passions; they will be your undoing. Logic suggests...
McCoy : Logic? My God, the man's talking about logic; we're talking about universal Armageddon! You green-blooded, inhuman...
skol asylum
Footballguy
Yeah that puts it in better perspective I guess. Should be way lower than. That number was freaking me out so I feel a bit better.
mr roboto
Footballguy
Angry Beavers
Footballguy
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
IT GETS VERY COMPLICATED
part of the problem is you have to have all the medical personnel back and forth and that requires all kinds of cars and transportation and they need to eat and all those people providing service for them and then the grocery stores...and how do you stop people from opening their doors? It's not going to happen IMHO....even NYC and San Fran/Cali are not on a true lockdown of any kind IMO.
facook
Footballguy
I don't think there are more than a few here who are rooting for doom. However, I think there are MANY in
mr roboto
Footballguy
skol asylum
Footballguy
What do you need to live? Food, water, meds, utilities,healthcare. I know there will be gray areas.
mr roboto
Footballguy
The only 2 reasons I can fathom...
1. Trump/Feds are so incompetent they think the rules don’t apply to us
-or-
2. The US is so large that it’s wiser to let individual states decide because the ‘US’ isn’t a relevant context for epidemiological interpretation (ie Idaho is as far removed from LA/SF/NYC as it is Italy)
I hope to GOD ALMIGHTY it’s 2.
1. Trump/Feds are so incompetent they think the rules don’t apply to us
-or-
2. The US is so large that it’s wiser to let individual states decide because the ‘US’ isn’t a relevant context for epidemiological interpretation (ie Idaho is as far removed from LA/SF/NYC as it is Italy)
I hope to GOD ALMIGHTY it’s 2.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
DA RAIDERS
Footballguy
they both have an underlying health condition. obesity and morbid obesity for her. god speed
Flying Elvis
Footballguy
IDK... probably not many responding to the ad for "Dog walker needed. Positive CV19 Household." Not sure I've seen any actual references in any articles, but dog feces and urine probably don't improve the health of Mr. DogWalker's lungs.
Redwes25
Footballguy
Article explains exactly what needs to be done to stop the virus, massive testing, tracing and isolating the sick - https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/22/health/coronavirus-restrictions-us.html?action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage
Flying Elvis
Footballguy
DocHolliday
Footballguy
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
New York Goes On PAUSE Sunday Night: Here's What That Means
Might surprise you to learn what is essential and may stay open. Corner bodegas and bike shops to name a couple.
Might surprise you to learn what is essential and may stay open. Corner bodegas and bike shops to name a couple.
Chemical X
Footballguy
Grace Under Pressure
Footballguy
“If it were possible to wave a magic wand and make all Americans freeze in place for 14 days while sitting six feet apart, epidemiologists say, the whole epidemic would sputter to a halt.”
Why is this hard to understand?
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
DocHolliday
Footballguy
Americans can’t deal with inconvenience. People throw fits if they don’t have the right amount of ice in their sodas. Many wont stop texting and driving after years of proof that it results in vehicle accidents.
bagger
Footballguy
Been home quarantined (actually using my in laws place in flagstaff to get away from everything since they only use it in the summer).
drive to Whole Foods today to get some groceries and there are 15 baby boomers at the end of the street all together drinking beer in someone’s driveway.
smh
drive to Whole Foods today to get some groceries and there are 15 baby boomers at the end of the street all together drinking beer in someone’s driveway.
smh
Chemical X
Footballguy
Chemical X
Footballguy
Redwes25
Footballguy
Grace Under Pressure
Footballguy
So the problem with locking down for 14 days are drug addicts? Or is it a national hubris? Because we could easily be 7 days into a 14 day “freeze” if we had collective discipline. Instead we’re prolonging this with half measures, people are dying, and the economy is literally crashing. All because we can’t collectively shut it down if ordered because “America doesn’t do it like that”. What in the actual f.
tamales
Footballguy
Jefferson the Caregiver
Rebel Without A Pause
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Galileo
Footballguy
Doug B
Footballguy
Would be a heckuva challenge under the Constitution, too. I assume emergency powers exist for the executive branch to invoke, but I don’t know exactly what they entail and exactly how they get executed.
Phil Elliott
Footballguy
Can’t find any grocery store reservations in Austin for drive-up and pick up grocery orders for next two weeks.
gianmarco
Footballguy
Grace Under Pressure
Footballguy
I did, and thank you for posting it. I agree with the steps outlined, and the dragging of people into isolation was the only step they listed that we wouldn’t put up with, and they offered a palatable western solution for that one.
It’s the idea that there are successful blueprints to follow, but we don’t, and that is totally confounding. I see the responses about Americans being selfish, well obviously that’s what I’m pointing out, that we’re collectively stupid, and sorry but I don’t get that or accept that as an answer. If we’re too dumb to do this on our own, then the government needs to lock it down. We’re cratering the economy into a depression.
Governor Cuomo said essentially the same thing today when he saw the people out in parks of NYC yesterday and paraphrasing “did you not understand when I said shut it down?”
