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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread

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8 minutes ago, BigJim® said:

Sounds backwards to me. Unless they pre-test for covid-19 without error, aren't they just setting up a cruise ship scenario?

I am sure they will take precautions to avoid the Princess scenario.  :oldunsure:

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14 hours ago, tri-man 47 said:

Good read from an immunologist at Johns Hopkins University

“Feeling confused as to why Coronavirus is a bigger deal than Seasonal flu? Here it is in a nutshell. I hope this helps. Feel free to share this with others who don’t understand.

It has to do with RNA sequencing...i.e. genetics.

Seasonal flu is an “all human virus”. The DNA/RNA chains that make up the virus are recognized by the human immune system. This means that your body has some immunity to it before it comes around each year. You get immunity two ways...through exposure to a virus, or by getting a flu shot.

Novel viruses come from animals. The WHO tracks novel viruses in animals (sometimes for years watching for mutations). ...

I have a science or medical question, and I’ll hang up and listen. I understand why novel viruses are so dangerous, I think based on this concept. - However, is covid19 easier to spread or catch than say a standard virus or flu? Slightly different point, and maybe it answers itself. It’s roughly the same strictly in terms of transmission/acquisition, is that correct? TIA.

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21 hours ago, eoMMan said:

Not everyone views this as extreme as you are.  How extreme you are cracks me up.

People can go out for coffee/bagel(s) at a takeout place (or drive thru) and be okay.

Are you wiping down your mailbox door with a clorox wipe?  What about each individual piece of junk mail?

Do you have kids?  Are you monitoring them every time they use the bathroom? Wiping for them?

Ooohh, what about your food items?  Did you wipe down each item before you put it in your fridge?  That Land O Lakes butter you grabbed might have been touched on the outside by another customer with Covid-19.

Here’s how serious life is where I live. My wife is an RN and checks off every possible box from her working career. ER, ICU, critical care, ventilators, infectious diseases, isolation, etc. 

She works behind a desk now. Somehow it got out that our son went to a friend’s house the other day. Within hours she heard from regional heads of the CDC, NIH, medical directors of area health systems, her company CEO, and the governor that no one in our house should be going out. They all said she is far too valuable to take a chance on her getting sick and she will be in line to be called in when some of the current nurses in the trenches are no longer around to treat patients. 

I have no idea if people need to be wiping down every piece of mail. But when my wife has to start worrying about replacing her friends if they die and having to do it without much left for protective measures, yeah, I am ready to suggest being overly cautious is a better option than not doing anything. 

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11 minutes ago, BobbyLayne said:

haven’t you heard? we don’t have beaches in NYC.

:lmao:

Where are the beaches in Manhattan?

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16 minutes ago, jamny said:

We have a beautiful park only 3 blocks away. We haven't gone out for a walk yet today but the past few days there has been a lot of activity in them Baseball, basketball, handball, lots of small groups of people. I heard from a neighbor that there was a girls soccer league there yesterday with parents all hanging around watching. They should close all the parks and beaches, immediately excpet for those moving, walking, biking and keeping their distance. Mayor DiBlasio is invisible and an embarrassment. The opposite of Cuomo.

DiBlasio said he needed help to get more ventilators.  God helps those who help themselves.  Now is the time to be creative and think out of the box.

Coronavirus response: Massachusetts enlists of help of life sciences industry to get supplies for emergency personnel; Here’s what they need

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50 minutes ago, ren hoek said:

https://medium.com/@jasonwbae/want-the-current-covid-19-number-in-u-s-multiple-by-90-b2e8841ab778

Accounting for 12-day delay in reporting and average # of unconfirmed vs. confirmed cases, this Northern Cal doctor projects actual infected around 1.25 million.  

At what point do we realize this is been in the U.S. for months? As contagious as this is, with people coming and going freely from China to the US in November, December, and January, it's obvious that this would have been running rampant throughout the country all winter. Since no one is attempting to calculate how many people had it and recovered before a single test was run, how accurate can it possibly be to make projections about the number of people we can expect to have it in coming weeks? We should be trying to make accurate assessments but that's simply not possible if we base our math upon the notion that day 1 occurred here in the past few weeks. I saw Cuomo throw out the numbers of 40-80% of all American will get this in the coming months. If you're not factoring in the number of people who had it from November to February, it's simply based on bad math. That's not me faulting Cuomo. He needs people to "get it" when it comes to people doing their part to stop the spread. But the reality is far more people have had this than anyone is calculating.

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Lot of cognitive distortion in here the last few days. One of the ways that manifests itself is catastrophizing.

Catastrophizing is an irrational thought a lot of us have in believing that something is far worse than it actually is. Catastrophizing can generally can take two different forms: making a catastrophe out of a current situation, and imagining making a catastrophe out of a future situation.

Not calling anyone out. But this article might help someone.

How to put a stop to catastrophic thinking

About 1 in 5 Americans experiences a mental health issue during any given year. IDK if anyone has tried to quantify what that statistic will be in 2020, but I’m guessing it will be closer to 1 in 3 or 1 in 2.

(I’m not referring to major disorders, which is about 1 in 25.)

Anyway, just some food for thought. Stay safe everyone.

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1 minute ago, bradyfan said:

DiBlasio said he needed help to get more ventilators.  God helps those who help themselves.  Now is the time to be creative and think out of the box.

Coronavirus response: Massachusetts enlists of help of life sciences industry to get supplies for emergency personnel; Here’s what they need

We live just to the north of MA. There are no more masks left for medical professionals. We have volunteers sewing homemade masks out of flannel shirts and sheets to protect the healthcare workers. 

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41 minutes ago, tamales said:

I must've missed all the beaches in NYC

 

5 minutes ago, tamales said:

Where are the beaches in Manhattan?

NYC has 5 boroughs

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Meanwhile, the state has secured a stash of trial drugs that have shown promising results against the contagion, with trials set to start Tuesday.

That includes 70,000 doses of hydroxychloroquine, 10,000 doses of Zithromax and 750,000 doses of chloroquine.

Crossing fingers

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Posted (edited)
25 minutes ago, Sinn Fein said:

I think this is still weeks away from actually happening.

Last I heard at least one of the 2 shops was docked for repairs 

eta: that was early this past week 

Edited by Cowboysfan8
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6 minutes ago, BobbyLayne said:

 

NYC has 5 boroughs

I first read this as NYC has 5 bagels :)  I need to take a break ....

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10 minutes ago, Cowboysfan8 said:

Last I heard at least one of the 2 shops was docked for repairs 

eta: that was early this past week 

The one in Norfolk.  I don't know the extent of the repairs - its likely that not all would be classified as "Necessary" - but it still take time to get everything back in place, and a crew on board.

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4 minutes ago, Jagov said:

I first read this as NYC has 5 bagels :)  I need to take a break ....

No wonder @tamales had to get one

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Here’s one reason to wipe stuff down. Delivery drivers are working even if they are sick because they need the money. 

LINK

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6 minutes ago, Jagov said:

I first read this as NYC has 5 bagels :)  I need to take a break ....

What is the difference between 5 and a dozen?

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8 minutes ago, Mr Anonymous said:

At what point do we realize this is been in the U.S. for months? As contagious as this is, with people coming and going freely from China to the US in November, December, and January, it's obvious that this would have been running rampant throughout the country all winter. Since no one is attempting to calculate how many people had it and recovered before a single test was run, how accurate can it possibly be to make projections about the number of people we can expect to have it in coming weeks? We should be trying to make accurate assessments but that's simply not possible if we base our math upon the notion that day 1 occurred here in the past few weeks. I saw Cuomo throw out the numbers of 40-80% of all American will get this in the coming months. If you're not factoring in the number of people who had it from November to February, it's simply based on bad math. That's not me faulting Cuomo. He needs people to "get it" when it comes to people doing their part to stop the spread. But the reality is far more people have had this than anyone is calculating.

Agree 100%. Just from the stories coming out of WA, this has probably been in our borders since at least the first week of Jan and maybe earlier. So there may have already been tens of thousands that caught it and recovered, thinking it was just a bad flu or that showed no symptoms at all.

Also China has lied repeatedly about their numbers and when it started. They are not even counting people that test positive but are asymptomatic, which is estimated at 30%+ of all cases. My guess is that if China is reporting 80,000 cases, then the real number is over 800,000. But that number doesn't really matter. We need to know the actual number of hospitilizations and mortality. And we can look to other countries to find accurate data.

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34 minutes ago, [scooter] said:

The weekend ain't over. Today is Sunday.

I made it to the basement

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If people are going to carry on like normal (for whatever reason - possibly the ever-shrinking death rate) it's gloves and masks time. Let's shift the focus to opening everything back up but make gloves and masks mandatory.

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1 minute ago, Mr Anonymous said:

If people are going to carry on like normal (for whatever reason - possibly the ever-shrinking death rate) it's gloves and masks time. Let's shift the focus to opening everything back up but make gloves and masks mandatory.

We don't have enough masks for healthcare workers - let alone the public.

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29 minutes ago, SaintsInDome2006 said:

I have a science or medical question, and I’ll hang up and listen. I understand why novel viruses are so dangerous, I think based on this concept. - However, is covid19 easier to spread or catch than say a standard virus or flu? Slightly different point, and maybe it answers itself. It’s roughly the same strictly in terms of transmission/acquisition, is that correct? TIA.

Yes it spreads easier than the flu. Nice summary here: Why Covid-19 is worse than the flu, in one chart

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Just now, Sinn Fein said:

We don't have enough masks for healthcare workers - let alone the public.

I agree but I think that's where this is headed. Production is being ramped up massively. When the supply starts to get where it needs to be, gloves and masks for all makes a lot more sense than people moving about freely without them. All resources should be poured into supplying the nation with gloves and masks. What we're setting up right now is a double-whammy. People aren't working but they're still out spreading. So we'll have massive unemployment paired with a spread of the virus that's not manageable. It's gloves and mask time the second we have enough of them.

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1 hour ago, bradyfan said:

Clearly Cuomo has never had a NY bagel.

Let's also make it clear it was not a NYC bagel. The NYC water is what makes the bagels. It was likely just a regular bagel!

I kid. Since he got bagels for two other, it's not so bad.

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Posted (edited)
54 minutes ago, SaintsInDome2006 said:

I have a science or medical question, and I’ll hang up and listen. I understand why novel viruses are so dangerous, I think based on this concept. - However, is covid19 easier to spread or catch than say a standard virus or flu? Slightly different point, and maybe it answers itself. It’s roughly the same strictly in terms of transmission/acquisition, is that correct? TIA.

It appears to be easier to catch than regular influenza. This is the Ro (basic reproduction) number people keep referring to: it's roughly 1-1.5 for "regular flu", but higher in pandemic flu. SARS-CoV-2 is about 2.5 +/- 1 (dataset is incomplete). That difference is a big deal when you're talking about exponential growth.

Ro refers to the average number of people an infected person will infect; anything greater than 1 promotes continued spread. If Ro can be reduced to less than 1 (by social distancing and other control measures), the infection will eventually die out. 

ETA There is no "standard virus". Ro for the common cold is around 6; for measles it's 14+.

ETA2 Ro can also be used to calculate the proportion of the population needed to be immunized to achieve herd immunity: 1 - 1/Ro

Edited by Terminalxylem
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25 minutes ago, BobbyLayne said:

Lot of cognitive distortion in here the last few days. One of the ways that manifests itself is catastrophizing.

Catastrophizing is an irrational thought a lot of us have in believing that something is far worse than it actually is. Catastrophizing can generally can take two different forms: making a catastrophe out of a current situation, and imagining making a catastrophe out of a future situation.

Not calling anyone out. But this article might help someone.

How to put a stop to catastrophic thinking

About 1 in 5 Americans experiences a mental health issue during any given year. IDK if anyone has tried to quantify what that statistic will be in 2020, but I’m guessing it will be closer to 1 in 3 or 1 in 2.

(I’m not referring to major disorders, which is about 1 in 25.)

Anyway, just some food for thought. Stay safe everyone.

Thanks for the article. This pandemic is an actual catastrophe though, not just a manifestation of catastrophic thinking. How we deal with that mentally is going to be a challenge, among all the other challenges we face.

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Just now, Mr Anonymous said:

I agree but I think that's where this is headed. Production is being ramped up massively. When the supply starts to get where it needs to be, gloves and masks for all makes a lot more sense than people moving about freely without them. All resources should be poured into supplying the nation with gloves and masks. What we're setting up right now is a double-whammy. People aren't working but they're still out spreading. So we'll have massive unemployment paired with a spread of the virus that's not manageable. It's gloves and mask time the second we have enough of them.

While some fools are still out spreading, there are clearly substantially lower opportunities for transmission than if everybody was going to work.

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2 hours ago, BobbyLayne said:

Hmmm

Friend of mine is a former model monkey for Goldman Sachs, he’s been doing some charts & sending the link to his colleagues (e.g., it’s restricted or else I would share it.) He’s an I-banker, not an epidemiologist.

He is projecting 100 million cases in the USA by the third week of April. Presumably this does not account for the effects of social distancing, shelter in place, et al.

That is consistent with the model I've been  using (they actually have 100MM cases by mid April). 

As you said, hopefully measures are working. 

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Just now, Terminalxylem said:

It appears to be easier to catch than regular influenza. This is the Ro number people keep referring to: it's roughly 1-1.5 for "regular flu", but higher in pandemic flu. SARS-CoV-2 is about 2.5 +/- 1 (dataset is incomplete). That difference is a big deal when you're talking about exponential growth.

The R refers to the average number of people an infected person will infect; anything greater than 1 promotes continued spread of infection. 

And that unfortunately is starting to be missed by those defying the need to stay away from others. They're seeing the notion in their mind confirmed that this isn't as deadly on a rate basis as feared but ignoring how much easier it's spread. If it kills at the same rate as the flu but spreads like wildfire, you can't carry on like it's no big deal.

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6 minutes ago, Terminalxylem said:

It appears to be easier to catch than regular influenza. This is the Ro number people keep referring to: it's roughly 1-1.5 for "regular flu", but higher in pandemic flu. SARS-CoV-2 is about 2.5 +/- 1 (dataset is incomplete). That difference is a big deal when you're talking about exponential growth.

The R refers to the average number of people an infected person will infect; anything greater than 1 promotes continued spread of infection. 

Thank you! Reason I love this place no. 5,481.

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2 minutes ago, Apple Jack said:

While some fools are still out spreading, there are clearly substantially lower opportunities for transmission than if everybody was going to work.

Right but if people are carrying on like normal after only a few days of concerted effort to stop it, how long can we contain even more people from joining them. At some point the focus has to shift from containing people to equipping them. As the number of people who won't stay home grows, we may as well force them to wear gloves and masks rather than have them running around with nothing. All resources should be poured into producing gloves and masks. Too many people aren't taking the stay away directive seriously. And that number will grow each day.

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Today’s numbers in Italy are down.

5,560 new cases and 651 new deaths.

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Just now, shader said:

Today’s numbers in Italy are down.

5,560 new cases and 651 new deaths.

That's great news.  Maybe we're closer to the end of the worst part than it seems.

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12 minutes ago, Sinn Fein said:
14 minutes ago, Mr Anonymous said:

If people are going to carry on like normal (for whatever reason - possibly the ever-shrinking death rate) it's gloves and masks time. Let's shift the focus to opening everything back up but make gloves and masks mandatory.

We don't have enough masks for healthcare workers - let alone the public.

That's just a temporary supply issue, though. Once masks are readily available, they'll become a common clothing accessory for the foreseeable future.

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1 hour ago, belljr said:

So what have you guys been doing about teh sex time?  Keeping distance?  Kids too much of an issue?   Asking for a friend

Are we required to stay 6 feet away from the wife?    :oldunsure:

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7 minutes ago, [icon] said:

That is consistent with the model I've been  using (they actually have 100MM cases by mid April). 

As you said, hopefully measures are working. 

There are other models that more fully take into account social distancing and lockdown measures. The outcomes are far lower.

None of us really know, there are so many variables and we’re just learning as go & sharing what we think we know.

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3 minutes ago, Otis said:

That's great news.  Maybe we're closer to the end of the worst part than it seems.

Not here we’re not. Here it’s just begun.

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What a conundrum: Who should we trust for updates from New York City?
Governor Cuomo

or 

...

The Bagel guy?

;) 

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5 minutes ago, Otis said:

That's great news.  Maybe we're closer to the end of the worst part than it seems.

Maybe it Italy they are.

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1 hour ago, mr roboto said:

If we ever get at home testing to scale in the next month or so is it conceivable that people could take a test, and have some sort of ID given to them if it comes back negative and we could actually know that if a person is healthy they are allowed in certain businesses or certain areas? I feel like at some point either everybody’s going to become infected and most will recover but that will take months and months or we need to re-open certain segments of our economy hopefully with the knowledge that people who are shopping or healthy but I just don’t know how we do that.

It's a perfectly valid and logical question, and likely to happen in some form I think.

But damn, it evokes thoughts of some scary allegories.

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1 minute ago, BobbyLayne said:
11 minutes ago, [icon] said:

That is consistent with the model I've been  using (they actually have 100MM cases by mid April). 

As you said, hopefully measures are working. 

There are other models that more fully take into account social distancing and lockdown measures. The outcomes are far lower.

None of us really know, there are so many variables and we’re just learning as go & sharing what we think we know.

Indeed and not least 50 different implementations of suppression/mitigation strategies

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2 minutes ago, [scooter] said:

That's just a temporary supply issue, though. Once masks are readily available, they'll become a common clothing accessory for the foreseeable future.

Yeah it seems like an absolute inevitability. Put people back to work, avoid the mortality rate of catastrophic unemployment, and lessen a spread that is going to happen anyway.

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Ministry of Pain said:

Publix gave many if not all of their management teams which is anything from a Grocery Team Leader and up what amounts to a 20% RAISE. They are making entry level teacher's pay now. 

-Wal-Mart is giving $300-$500 sign on bonuses and I can name a half dozen other big retailers and grocery stores that are about to go on a mass hiring phase. If you know anyone that was working their tails off waiting tables or standing on their feet all day I would highly recommend they check into their local grocery store, they might be hired on the spot. 

-They need bodies in these stores working ATC to get them functioning. They need an entire overnight to re-stock, there aren't enough hours to do it the way they are presently staffed. 

-Publix as an example is setting records every day right now. They are averaging over $150,000 in sales per store per day and that's on a slow day. When they can actually get product on the shelves that is high demand it's upwards of $250k and they have Publix stacked on top of each other everywhere down here in South Florida.

-Earth Fare picked the wrong month to go out of business, they would have made a fortune at least emptying their inventory. 

Ex Publix guy here. I was told by some of my friends still employed there that the raises were across the board and they were giving associates $100 gift cards too.  Its always been a pretty good company to work for. I used to feel a little guilty for what I made as a Produce Manager when I thought about what stating pay was for cops and teachers.

All my buddies told me if folks would just go back to there normal shopping habits the supply chain could catch back up in a matter of days. I remember what it was like when ever there was a hurricane lurking. This is like that but people are buying everything and its like the hurricane never leaves. I bought the team at my Publix 20 pizzas and had them delivered from the Dominos next door to show my appreciation. Lot of folks don't realize how hard retail grocery is especially in times like these.

 

Edited by rustycolts
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For anyone needing sports... NBC airing a “wired” series with Penguins/Flyers outdoor game. It’s pretty awesome seeing and hearing the player commentary. 

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Here I bet we have two weeks until the country is in total lockdown, just because we’re stubborn and reality still hasn’t set in yet. When numbers keep ramping up, we will finally do what’s necessary. Another two weeks after that until we hit the peak. My guess is we peak around the end of April, beginning of May. 

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5 minutes ago, shader said:

Today’s numbers in Italy are down.

5,560 new cases and 651 new deaths.

 

4 minutes ago, Otis said:

That's great news.  Maybe we're closer to the end of the worst part than it seems.

Wondering if it will take good news coming from Italy for the US to adopt the measures Italy finally adopted. They locked down the entire country on March 9th. That’s 13 days ago. If people still don’t understand we need to do this now, they aren’t paying attention and as a result we need a federal, universal response to this.

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