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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (22 Viewers)

Caesar said:
FWIW.

On my drive into work this morning, there was no discernible difference in the number of cars on the road at 6AM.

This is in Ohio, the first day the shelter in place order is officially in effect.
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Ours gets announced today, but looking at the list for OH, I am not sure what will really change around here.   We have been surprised the last week at how little business is dropping off and how many people are still out and about.   The most we could think of that would further have to shut down would be local stores like antique shops, etc.  I am sure I am missing stuff, but we just couldn't think of much more.  So does making it official and calling it a "shelter in home" really make that much difference?  How are they going to enforce this vs. the day before it?  Are these measures enough?   Those were the questions milling around yesterday.  

 
So I'm going to have to be the Bad Guy today. Several of my buddies and I were scheduled to meet this weekend in a state park in GA and go glamping in a cabin.

There's 3 of us from FL, one from suburban GA, and one from NC. 

They're all gung ho about this.  I voiced some reservations about this last week.

I've been waiting for GA to close their state parks or FL to announce a shelter in place to take me off the hook.

Also, if I went through with the trip, i think the Navy would require me to self isolate for 14 days upon return.

i think Wet Blanket time is this afternoon.  I'll tell them I'll still pay my share if they want to go without me.

 
Pretty cool...

Michael Martinez @MikeMartinez_AN

BREAKING: @Ford plans to build respirators, ventilators & face shields in Michigan in partnership with the UAW, GE Healthcare & 3M. Some details:

-1,000 respirators per month, using F-150 seat fans, portable battery packs & 3D printed parts

-100,000 face shields per week

 
KarmaPolice said:
Ours gets announced today, but looking at the list for OH, I am not sure what will really change around here.   We have been surprised the last week at how little business is dropping off and how many people are still out and about.   The most we could think of that would further have to shut down would be local stores like antique shops, etc.  I am sure I am missing stuff, but we just couldn't think of much more.  So does making it official and calling it a "shelter in home" really make that much difference?  How are they going to enforce this vs. the day before it?  Are these measures enough?   Those were the questions milling around yesterday.  
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Some of your questions were asked, and poorly answered, at the press conference yesterday with Ohio Gov and company.  I still feel like they are leaving it up to businesses to do the right thing, and that isn't going to work.

Looking at the list, there are enough "exemptions" that just about any business owner who isn't specifically told to shut down can make the argument for staying open.  People with the money don't want to shut down business.  People who work for them don't want to lose their jobs.  People with money don't want to pay people for not working.

So, if WFH is not an option for people, what is a business owner to do?  Fire people who can't work from home or have them come in and find a way to justify it?

I am not happy about being at work and putting myself/family at greater risk, but that is the reality of most people who can't WFH.  I will say that if I were to get laid off two weeks or a month from now, I will be even more upset.  How could you tell someone they are essential, but then get rid of them two weeks later?  That doesn't add up.  Essential to me means that the business can't function without that person AND the business NEEDS to function during this time.  I am guessing at least half of those people still going to work don't meet both of those circumstances.  JMO

 
themeanmachine said:
Pretty cool...

Michael Martinez @MikeMartinez_AN

BREAKING: @Ford plans to build respirators, ventilators & face shields in Michigan in partnership with the UAW, GE Healthcare & 3M. Some details:

-1,000 respirators per month, using F-150 seat fans, portable battery packs & 3D printed parts

-100,000 face shields per week
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yeah its great seeing companies come together for the cause

 
themeanmachine said:
Pretty cool...

Michael Martinez @MikeMartinez_AN

BREAKING: @Ford plans to build respirators, ventilators & face shields in Michigan in partnership with the UAW, GE Healthcare & 3M. Some details:

-1,000 respirators per month, using F-150 seat fans, portable battery packs & 3D printed parts

-100,000 face shields per week
Click to expand...
This is the kind of action that will help us get through this.   

 
mcintyre1 said:
Now begins the worry -- I'm getting sick. I've really only left the house twice in the last 10ish days and both times were to help my best buddy and his family with moving (unfortunately timed, obviously). He had a cough and sniffles, but never a fever, and his wife was clearly a little stuffed up too. Now his brother and I are both getting sick. We're definitely leaning something more innocuous at the moment (though wishful thinking is likely playing a part in this). None of the four of us has had a fever at any point, and 3/4 had nasal stuffiness as the primary symptom (I've only got a sore throat and light headaches at the moment). From what I've read, fever is the most common symptom and a runny nose is pretty rare. The cough they've had is definitely not "dry" either. 

Fingers crossed, but have to say it is frustrating to have gotten sick in the very few instances of going outside my house (though I should have expected it, I knew he was a bit sick when I still volunteered to help -- they've got a toddler and needed it). Current guess is that the toddler is patient zero and it was just something going around daycare before they pulled her out of it.

Not going to bother trying to get tested, I'm sure I wouldn't be able to given what I've heard.
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going with a Cold brother. hot toddy to knock it out . call me in the morning

 
-fish- said:
By January 21 she proved community transmission.  IK was saying it's not possible people were sick in February.   He claims the math is impossible.   This state more likely than not has 100s of thousands of undiagnosed cases.   People that are in denial about scientific facts who are raging against lockdowns are the problem right now.
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I'm in favor of lockdowns.  I'm also in favor of realism and very much against wishful thinking.  "I had a fever back in February -- I'll bet it was coronavirus" is wishful thinking, not hard-headed realism.

 
Jayrod said:
Did I say I did?  I said the exact opposite in my first post on the subject that the calculations are impossible to make.  The fact is that there is a point at which the lines in the graph cross.  To ignore that is to ignore reality.

I have no idea who that guy is so you can shove your arrogance.  Poverty kills people.  What percentage of our nation are you willing to throw into poverty to flatten the curve?  How far does the curve need to flatten?  No one really knows is all I'm saying, but it needs to be considered in EVERYTHING we are doing.  We can't just lock the country down indefinitely, economics be damned.

What is this supposed to mean?  That because I'm a Christian, I'm somehow unqualified to assess the situation?

How very open minded and tolerant of you.

For you guys who think I'm some kind of idiot, here is some light cheery reading on what happens to people in poverty.  And make no mistake the longer we shut down society, the more people will be thrown into poverty.  It is simply a graph with 2 lines, people killed by the virus and people killed by poverty caused by our actions to stop the virus.  They intersect at some point is literally all I'm saying and you or I or anyone have no idea where that is, but it does happen.

https://www.apa.org/pi/families/poverty

https://www.healthpovertyaction.org/news-events/key-facts-poverty-and-poor-health/
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Everyone, please drop this line of arguing. We need to help each other here. Thanks. 

 
JaxBill said:
So I'm going to have to be the Bad Guy today. Several of my buddies and I were scheduled to meet this weekend in a state park in GA and go glamping in a cabin.

There's 3 of us from FL, one from suburban GA, and one from NC. 

They're all gung ho about this.  I voiced some reservations about this last week.

I've been waiting for GA to close their state parks or FL to announce a shelter in place to take me off the hook.

Also, if I went through with the trip, i think the Navy would require me to self isolate for 14 days upon return.

i think Wet Blanket time is this afternoon.  I'll tell them I'll still pay my share if they want to go without me.
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I would simply tell them this and move on. 

 
Jayrod said:
People need to understand that there is a point where the economic impact will cost more lives than the virus itself.  Just "shut it down for a month" people are as ignorant as the "it's just a flu" people.

This is a massively complex situation and the ability to calculate the impact of all of the macro decisions is simply impossible.

There is no simple solution and there is no "right" answer.  Decisions aren't made in a vacuum and every governmental order will have consequences and will negatively effect society to the point of causing death rates to rise.  And often that means a younger healthier population than the virus will kill.
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I hear people using that qualifying statement.  I have yet to hear anyone quantify that statement.  Please quantify it.

 
AAABatteries said:
I haven’t followed all of this back and forth but this was one of the main symptoms along with fatigue that I’ve had the last 10 days.  For several days in a row I had to force myself to eat.  Maybe it’s another virus going around?
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My wife has had sore throat off and on, low-grade fever (never over 100), fatigue, and no appetite for about 10 days now. Her parents are very "at-risk" and have daily in-house nurses. She's terrified that the nurses will no longer be able to come, or that they will infect her parents, or that she will be forced into action if the nurses get sick and then she will "infect" her parents.

She hasn't left the house for over 10 days. Its literally impossible that she has it. And yet she feels sick every day. Its surely stress/anxiety related, but that doesnt make it any less real.  :(

No idea what your situation is, just sharing hers. Hope you're feeling better.

 
JaxBill said:
So I'm going to have to be the Bad Guy today. Several of my buddies and I were scheduled to meet this weekend in a state park in GA and go glamping in a cabin.

There's 3 of us from FL, one from suburban GA, and one from NC. 

They're all gung ho about this.  I voiced some reservations about this last week.

I've been waiting for GA to close their state parks or FL to announce a shelter in place to take me off the hook.

Also, if I went through with the trip, i think the Navy would require me to self isolate for 14 days upon return.

i think Wet Blanket time is this afternoon.  I'll tell them I'll still pay my share if they want to go without me.
Click to expand...
Tell me more about glamping

 
JaxBill said:
So I'm going to have to be the Bad Guy today. Several of my buddies and I were scheduled to meet this weekend in a state park in GA and go glamping in a cabin.

There's 3 of us from FL, one from suburban GA, and one from NC. 

They're all gung ho about this.  I voiced some reservations about this last week.

I've been waiting for GA to close their state parks or FL to announce a shelter in place to take me off the hook.

Also, if I went through with the trip, i think the Navy would require me to self isolate for 14 days upon return.

i think Wet Blanket time is this afternoon.  I'll tell them I'll still pay my share if they want to go without me.
Click to expand...
Pull the plug. Good chance they're all waiting for someone to step up and call it.

 
JAA said:
I hear people using that qualifying statement.  I have yet to hear anyone quantify that statement.  Please quantify it.
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I already said (twice now) that this is impossible.  And neither can you accurately quantify the exact effects of not shutting society down and just letting the virus run rampant.

We are dealing with a bunch of educated guesses and trying to balance it out.

 
belljr said:
Tell me more about glamping
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It's camping. Except there's a cabin instead of a tent. And you're sleeping on beds not air mattresses.  (Last year I brought my sleeping bag and pillow and used that on top of the covers)

And the cabin has electricity and hot water and...cable. 

So it's basically an excuse to drink nonstop for a couple of days.

eta - 2 BR cottage here

 
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Am I correct to believe that the only real data we have right now is number of people that have died. I feel like total cases are irrelevant based on testing procedures. 
 

also, deaths are a lagging indicator reflecting cases that happened 7 to 14 days before the patient died. How are we ever going to have an accurate mortality rate if we never really knew how many people actually contracted the virus?

 
Story about a possible super spreader event in Connecticut. 

Interesting thing about that story to me is how the people that hosted the event havent been outed and arent coming forward. Only a few people have publicly come forward to admit they have it. 

I think the lack of transparency is so dumb. It becomes self fulfilling. People are angry that it is being kept a secret. So the unknown people are now stigmatized. 

 
Jayrod said:
I already said (twice now) that this is impossible.  And neither can you accurately quantify the exact effects of not shutting society down and just letting the virus run rampant.

We are dealing with a bunch of educated guesses and trying to balance it out.
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@JAA

This article from 2011 makes an attempt.

 
mr roboto said:
Am I correct to believe that the only real data we have right now is number of people that have died. I feel like total cases are irrelevant based on testing procedures. 
 

also, deaths are a lagging indicator reflecting cases that happened 7 to 14 days before the patient died. How are we ever going to have an accurate mortality rate if we never really knew how many people actually contracted the virus?
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We wont. They dont have it for the flu either.

 
mr roboto said:
Am I correct to believe that the only real data we have right now is number of people that have died. I feel like total cases are irrelevant based on testing procedures. 
 

also, deaths are a lagging indicator reflecting cases that happened 7 to 14 days before the patient died. How are we ever going to have an accurate mortality rate if we never really knew how many people actually contracted the virus?
Click to expand...
At some point an accurate mortality rate is secondary in nature to what this virus does. It overwhelms hospitals and causes the mortality rate (whatever that might be) to skyrocket 

 
[scooter] said:
And "There is a point where the economic impact will cost more lives than the virus" people are just as ignorant as "Just shut it down for a month" people and "It's just a flu" people.
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Jayrod said:
This is a fact.  Sorry if you don't like it, but to state it is the opposite of ignorant.
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This is literally the opposite of a fact.  It's your opinion.  The only way it's a "fact" is if you know exactly how many lives the virus will claim such that you can compare it to the number of lives that some unknown economic impact will claim.

 
Mr. Ham said:
What I responded to: “So tomorrow I'm going to the apt office. Mom sent me a photo of the check. I kept my usps informed delivery email too showing it did pass through the scan there. Due to privacy they won't tell me but at least they can take action. Then I'll go to USPS and do the same.”

I think she should call the police and see if she can file a report over the phone. My advice is to hand it off without the physical trips.
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My bad. I thought you said justice could wait until summer 

 
mr roboto said:
Am I correct to believe that the only real data we have right now is number of people that have died. I feel like total cases are irrelevant based on testing procedures. 
 

also, deaths are a lagging indicator reflecting cases that happened 7 to 14 days before the patient died. How are we ever going to have an accurate mortality rate if we never really knew how many people actually contracted the virus?
Click to expand...
Welcome to real world data.  It is messy.

 
IvanKaramazov said:
I'm in favor of lockdowns.  I'm also in favor of realism and very much against wishful thinking.  "I had a fever back in February -- I'll bet it was coronavirus" is wishful thinking, not hard-headed realism.
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IK - no offense but I hope you realize you might be wrong.  That's different than me saying you are wrong, I'm saying you could be wrong.  Do you agree?

 
JAA said:
I hear people using that qualifying statement.  I have yet to hear anyone quantify that statement.  Please quantify it.
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I am going to jump in this and may regret it, but the same can be said for shutting everything down.  There were charts that were linked that showed deaths from both options, you have to decide what numbers you want to go with.  I have been in this thread daily from the beginning and the "shut it all down" crowd never has an exact end game.  They cannot quantify (or simply don't when discussing this issue) what will trigger we can get back to even semi-normal.  See Hong Kong and leaks from China that this is not going away just because we shut down everything for 2 weeks, a month, two months, etc.

I am blown away when Jayrod gets chastised by Joe for bring up a valid point.  The crowd that wants to shut it all down needs to quantify what has to happen to allow the releasing of society.  And many in here clearly have no idea about macro or micro economics and the long term affects this is having.  Economies are like freight trains or very large ships, it takes a long time to get them stopped (normally) and going again.  I would guess from my background that everyday we are telling people to not go out will add a month to the length of getting the economy back to a resemblance of normal.  This will not be a quick recovery like many seem to think.  Wait to see what happens when the end of March unemployment numbers are around 10% (hopefully) and in the 20% range by the end of April.

 
Jayrod said:
I already said (twice now) that this is impossible.  And neither can you accurately quantify the exact effects of not shutting society down and just letting the virus run rampant.

We are dealing with a bunch of educated guesses and trying to balance it out.
Click to expand...
If you cannot quantify it, how can evaluate the statement that the economic impact will be worse?

 
Rich Conway said:
This is literally the opposite of a fact.  It's your opinion.  The only way it's a "fact" is if you know exactly how many lives the virus will claim such that you can compare it to the number of lives that some unknown economic impact will claim.
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Huh?  So unless we know all the details, it isn't true?  You see how that statement is false, right?  Poverty kills people, that is a fact.  Shutting down the economy is causing poverty to increase, that is a fact.  Ergo, shutting down the economy is killing people.  Just because I can't accurately quantify that number doesn't mean it isn't true.

 
JAA said:
IK - no offense but I hope you realize you might be wrong.  That's different than me saying you are wrong, I'm saying you could be wrong.  Do you agree?
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Sure.  If I had cold-like symptoms back in February, there is some very remote chance that I was one of the tiny number of people who had coronavirus very early on, before it became a public health crisis.  The probability of that isn't literally zero, just very small.

 
As a business owner...

We we’re profiting (EBITDA) around 10k/month. We are now spending about $4000 a month to keep a minimum rent payment and our insurance and other required payments going without any revenue. So for two months we are going to go from profiting $20,000 to losing $8000. That’s a $28,000 loss. 
 

i’m expecting to make about $5,000 to $10,000 less per month at my job. I’m in sales and it’s almost entirely commission based and people arent making big purchases right now.

So if we go two months like this I’m expecting our families going to lose roughly $30,00-$50,000.

We are very fortunate that can we can observe this loss but I’m also not sure how our businesses are going to perform after we reopen society and I have a tax liability to pay on profits from the business last year that will be more than wiped out by losses this year. 

 
JaxBill said:
It's camping. Except there's a cabin instead of a tent. And you're sleeping on beds not air mattresses.  (Last year I brought my sleeping bag and pillow and used that on top of the covers)

And the cabin has electricity and hot water and...cable. 

So it's basically an excuse to drink nonstop for a couple of days.

eta - 2 BR cottage here
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Oh ...it's some stupid millennial word

Carry on 😉

 
parasaurolophus said:
Story about a possible super spreader event in Connecticut. 

Interesting thing about that story to me is how the people that hosted the event havent been outed and arent coming forward. Only a few people have publicly come forward to admit they have it. 

I think the lack of transparency is so dumb. It becomes self fulfilling. People are angry that it is being kept a secret. So the unknown people are now stigmatized. 
Click to expand...
The story reeks of jealously and envy. Seems as though the writers are trying to blame the wealthy for spreading the virus. The fact of the matter is, the county health officials coronavirus forum brought more people together than this social gathering....and was held three days later. In other words, the party goers didnt do anything wrong. Why should they be "outed" and why are people angry that they haven't? 

 
Jayrod said:
Huh?  So unless we know all the details, it isn't true?  You see how that statement is false, right?  Poverty kills people, that is a fact.  Shutting down the economy is causing poverty to increase, that is a fact.  Ergo, shutting down the economy is killing people.  Just because I can't accurately quantify that number doesn't mean it isn't true.
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What will happen to the economy when millions of people die from Covid-19?

 
mr roboto said:
Am I correct to believe that the only real data we have right now is number of people that have died. I feel like total cases are irrelevant based on testing procedures. 
 

also, deaths are a lagging indicator reflecting cases that happened 7 to 14 days before the patient died. How are we ever going to have an accurate mortality rate if we never really knew how many people actually contracted the virus?
Click to expand...
Actually there have been many statements of medical personnel (some in here) that many are dying without getting tested and listed as respiratory failure, etc.  Some of this was due to the lack of testing kits.  There was a graph probably 40-50 pages ago that someone posted showing the yearly flu deaths for the last 4-5 years and they follow a double peak, but this year a third peak was popping up in February...the thought was there may be alot of "flu" deaths that are actually from CV 19

 
  • Smile
Reactions: JAA
Jayrod said:
Huh?  So unless we know all the details, it isn't true?  You see how that statement is false, right?  Poverty kills people, that is a fact.  Shutting down the economy is causing poverty to increase, that is a fact.  Ergo, shutting down the economy is killing people.  Just because I can't accurately quantify that number doesn't mean it isn't true.
Click to expand...
"Shutting down the economy will kill people" may be a fact.  "Shutting down the economy will kill more people than the virus" is not a fact.  It is an opinion.

 
Some people are dumb. My wife runs a company of about 60 people. Starting last Monday, they let everyone who wasn't in production move to WFH. A couple office staff still insisted on going to the office everyday. Yesterday, one of those office workers who could have been working from home calls her midday and says, "I wasn't feeling good all weekend, feel like I am getting the flu. I am probably going to WFH Tuesday." She also got a call from a freaked out production worker who says one of other production members said his girlfriend (whom he lives with) was hospitalized over the weekend for a cough and trouble breathing. WTF is wrong with people? Are people really this dumb and oblivious? 

 
IvanKaramazov said:
What will happen to the economy when millions of people die from Covid-19?
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That would be awful and it would have long reaching effects.  As would sending our economy into a second great depression.  Both are awful and I think we can avoid both extremes, but every decision has negative effects one way or the other.  It is a very delicate balance and I don't think anyone has the answers.

 
mr roboto said:
Am I correct to believe that the only real data we have right now is number of people that have died. I feel like total cases are irrelevant based on testing procedures. 
 

also, deaths are a lagging indicator reflecting cases that happened 7 to 14 days before the patient died. How are we ever going to have an accurate mortality rate if we never really knew how many people actually contracted the virus?
Click to expand...
I would suggest we don’t have any real data, truthfully 

 
[scooter] said:
And "There is a point where the economic impact will cost more lives than the virus" people are just as ignorant as "Just shut it down for a month" people and "It's just a flu" people.
Click to expand...
Looks like none of us know what's going on.  Which is probably the right answer.

 
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