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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread

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On 2/22/2020 at 9:04 PM, bradyfan said:

China CDC Situation Report on Feb-22 
31 Provinces & XPCC 
  Suspected: 4148 (+882)
  Confirmed: 76936 (+648)
  Severe: 10968 (-509)
  Dead: 2442 (+97)
  Recovered: 22888 (+2230)
Hong Kong - Confirmed: 69 (Dead: 2, Recovered: 11)
Macau - Confirmed: 10 (Recovered: 6)
Taiwan - Confirmed: 26 (Dead: 1, Recovered: 2)

China CDC Situation Report on Feb-23
31 Provinces & XPCC
  Suspected: 3434 (+620)
  Confirmed: 77150 (+409)
  Severe: 9915 (-1053)
  Dead: 2592 (+150)
  Recovered: 24734 (+1846)
Hong Kong - Confirmed: 74 (Dead: 2, Recovered: 12)
Macau - Confirmed: 10 (Recovered: 6)
Taiwan - Confirmed: 28 (Dead: 1, Recovered: 5)

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Non-China Reported Cases

2/7 - 277

2/12 - 490

2/17 - 893 reported cases - (454 on Diamond Princess) - 135 recovered - 36 serious/critical - 5 dead 

2/18 - 1,014 reported cases (542 on Diamond Princess) - 152 recovered - 39 serious/critical - 5 dead

2/19 - 1,149 reported cases (621 on Diamond Princess) - 169 recovered - 45 serious/critical - 10 dead

2/20 - 1,259 reported cases (634 on Diamond Princess) - 191 recovered - 45 serious/critical - 11 dead

2/21 - 1,525 reported cases (634 on Diamond Princess) - 209 recovered - 52 serious/critical - 15 dead

2/22 - 1,834 reported cases (634 on Diamond Princess) - 210 recovered - 66 serious/critical - 19 dead

2/23 - 2,213 reported cases (691 Diamond Princess cases) - 227 recovered - 82 serious/critical - 27 dead

 

Edited by shader

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My wife commented that she thinks it's unlikely that the Indonesia numbers are correct. She says that they are unreliable as they don't have good disease surveillance, as opposed to Singapore, which is top notch.  She thought it was unlikely they haven't had any cases there.

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3 minutes ago, The Z Machine said:

My wife commented that she thinks it's unlikely that the Indonesia numbers are correct. She says that they are unreliable as they don't have good disease surveillance, as opposed to Singapore, which is top notch.  She thought it was unlikely they haven't had any cases there.

At first, I thought that a lot of the poorer countries could be hiding it or didn't know they had it, because like you said, they don't have good medical infrastructure.  But there hasn't been a large outbreak anywhere with a hot climate as far as we know.  And in today's social media connected world, it'd be hard to hide if people were dying of pneumonia.

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Discussed some prep plans with my wife today. Gonna wait until there are actual cases in NY but doesn't hurt to plan what to buy at least. 

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17 minutes ago, Don Hutson said:

And in today's social media connected world, it'd be hard to hide if people were dying of pneumonia.

Was thinking the same. Once Iran started having a few deaths, info through unofficial (and yes, uncorrobated) channels started flooding forth. No reason the same wouldn't happen in Indonesia or other places, no?

Was also thinking that Indonesia's geography helps -- there are major metros on some of the islands, but none are international travel hubs, are they? As a citizenry goes ... Indonesia is fairly isolated, isn't it? I know they had plenty of Chinese plane travelers up to a certain point, though.

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19 minutes ago, Doug B said:

Was also thinking that Indonesia's geography helps -- there are major metros on some of the islands, but none are international travel hubs, are they? As a citizenry goes ... Indonesia is fairly isolated, isn't it? I know they had plenty of Chinese plane travelers up to a certain point, though.

It's the rainy season right now in Indonesia and it's always hot so that is probably the reason there hasn't been much spread.  Bali has a ton of tourists including Chinese and Jakarta is 10 million people.  Although, Jakarta isn't a travel destination or airline hub like Bangkok or Kuala Lumpur.

Edited by Don Hutson
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Probably mostly just people with the common flu, but still sounds bad.

Quote

https://us.yahoo.com/finance/news/hong-kong-hit-tsunami-italy-215224837.html

With the country at the highest alert level in nearly a decade, South Korea will expand coronavirus screening to all residents of the city of Daegu who show symptoms of the infection, and ship 10,000 hospital beds to the region, a health ministry official said at a briefing.

The additional beds are being expedited as health officials said they had identified 37,000 people in the city with symptoms of the virus. The moves came a day after President Moon Jae-in raised the alert level in South Korea to its highest.

“There is high chance of nationwide spread if South Korea fails to effectively block the transmission of community spread in Daegu as confirmed cases have spiked in the region,” Vice Health Minister Kim Ganglip told the briefing.

 

Edited by Don Hutson

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9 minutes ago, Don Hutson said:

Probably mostly just people with the common flu, but still sounds bad.

 

Further evidence that if you wait until "cases are near you" it's likely too late. Most of those folks likely caught the virus last week or the week before.

The odds are pretty good there are carriers in at least a couple US cities right now spreading the virus but symptoms won't surface until this week or next.

I'm personally ramping up "Social distancing" this week... avoiding crowds, keeping space from people out in public where possible to do so, taking stairs instead of elevators at work (avoiding handrails), etc.

All pretty easy habits to pick up. Not having kids helps a LOT IMO. 

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2 hours ago, shader said:

Non-China Reported Cases

2/7 - 277

2/12 - 490

2/17 - 893 reported cases - (454 on Diamond Princess) - 135 recovered - 36 serious/critical - 5 dead 

2/18 - 1,014 reported cases (542 on Diamond Princess) - 152 recovered - 39 serious/critical - 5 dead

2/19 - 1,149 reported cases (621 on Diamond Princess) - 169 recovered - 45 serious/critical - 10 dead

2/20 - 1,259 reported cases (634 on Diamond Princess) - 191 recovered - 45 serious/critical - 11 dead

2/21 - 1,525 reported cases (634 on Diamond Princess) - 209 recovered - 52 serious/critical - 15 dead

2/22 - 1,834 reported cases (634 on Diamond Princess) - 210 recovered - 66 serious/critical - 19 dead

2/23 - 2,213 reported cases (691 Diamond Princess cases) - 227 recovered - 82 serious/critical - 27 dead

 

So in 6 days, subtracting the cruise ship the # of confirmed cases incresaed almost 400% from 439 to 1522

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6 hours ago, [icon] said:

I'm personally ramping up "Social distancing" this week... avoiding crowds, keeping space from people out in public where possible to do so, taking stairs instead of elevators at work (avoiding handrails), etc.

OH COME ON

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1 hour ago, Otis said:

OH COME ON

I know stairs are scary GB, but I'm only on the 4th floor. Only adds in 90 seconds of cardio ;) 

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19 hours ago, bradyfan said:

Italy has now passed Japan on Worldometer.

  1. China: 76,940 (+652) confirmed, 2444 (+99) deaths
  2. Diamond Princess: 691 (+57) confirmed, 3 (+1) deaths
  3. South Korea: 602 (+166) confirmed, 6 (+4) deaths
  4. Italy: 157 (+78) confirmed, 3 (+1) deaths
  5. Japan: 146 (+12) confirmed, 1 death
  6. Singapore: 89 confirmed
  7. Hong Kong: 74 (+4) confirmed, 2 deaths
  8. Iran: 43 (+14) confirmed, 8 (+2) deaths
  9. Thailand: 35 confirmed
  10. U.S.: 35 confirmed

Worldometer

  1. China: 77,345 (+409) confirmed, 2,592 (+150) deaths
  2. South Korea: 833 (+231) confirmed, 8 (+2) deaths
  3. Diamond Princess: 691 confirmed, 3 deaths
  4. Italy: 226 (+69) confirmed, 5 (+2) deaths
  5. Japan: 146 confirmed, 1 death
  6. Singapore: 90 (+1) confirmed
  7. Hong Kong: 79 (+5) confirmed, 2 deaths
  8. Iran: 61 (+18) confirmed, 12 (+4) deaths
  9. Thailand: 35 confirmed
  10. U.S.: 35 confirmed

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2 minutes ago, bradyfan said:

Worldometer

  1. China: 77,345 (+409) confirmed, 2,592 (+150) deaths
  2. South Korea: 833 (+231) confirmed, 8 (+2) deaths
  3. Diamond Princess: 691 confirmed, 3 deaths
  4. Italy: 226 (+69) confirmed, 5 (+2) deaths
  5. Japan: 146 confirmed, 1 death
  6. Singapore: 90 (+1) confirmed
  7. Hong Kong: 79 (+5) confirmed, 2 deaths
  8. Iran: 61 (+18) confirmed, 12 (+4) deaths
  9. Thailand: 35 confirmed
  10. U.S.: 35 confirmed

So now the Dow decides to take a dump?   

 

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2 minutes ago, bradyfan said:

Worldometer

  1. China: 77,345 (+409) confirmed, 2,592 (+150) deaths
  2. South Korea: 833 (+231) confirmed, 8 (+2) deaths
  3. Diamond Princess: 691 confirmed, 3 deaths
  4. Italy: 226 (+69) confirmed, 5 (+2) deaths
  5. Japan: 146 confirmed, 1 death
  6. Singapore: 90 (+1) confirmed
  7. Hong Kong: 79 (+5) confirmed, 2 deaths
  8. Iran: 61 (+18) confirmed, 12 (+4) deaths
  9. Thailand: 35 confirmed
  10. U.S.: 35 confirmed

Number of cases in Iran must be much higher with 12 dead. Probably over a 1000 cases and spreading everywhere. 

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22 hours ago, msommer said:

It was one of my biggest gripes with Fear the Walking Dead and the principal reason I stopped watching the show: They promised to show how society fell - and then they just incarcerated everyone in the suburbs and skipped the whole thing and had the army pull out when society had apparently fallen.

Yep.  And then the show became repetitive squabbles and "wars" between Rick's group and others.   :yawn: 

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No apparent outbreak in Indonesia, Malaysia, India, and stalling in Singapore are all good signs that the virus doesn’t like warm wet weather. 

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36 minutes ago, Godsbrother said:

Yep.  And then the show became repetitive squabbles and "wars" between Rick's group and others.   :yawn: 

Rick? Wasn't he in The Walking Dead? BTW I agree with that characterization of TWD - kind of stupid that after the governor there was always another completely secret group observing everything and plotting evil....

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I know there are reasons why we haven't heard, but has there been a hint of this in North Korea?  Isn't there some travel between China and NK?

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42 minutes ago, Mr. Ham said:

No apparent outbreak in Indonesia, Malaysia, India, and stalling in Singapore are all good signs that the virus doesn’t like warm wet weather. 

I apologize to humidity for all the horrible things I’ve said about it for the last ummmmmm...42 years. 

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15 minutes ago, WDIK2 said:

I know there are reasons why we haven't heard, but has there been a hint of this in North Korea?  Isn't there some travel between China and NK?

There was early on, but they don't exactly have like the internet there.

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8 minutes ago, Capella said:

I apologize to humidity for all the horrible things I’ve said about it for the last ummmmmm...42 years. 

Might be thing that saves our butts down here. If there’s one thing the Gulf Coast has in spades (and diamonds, clubs, & hearts) ... it’s humidity.

Edited by Doug B
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1 hour ago, culdeus said:

So now the Dow decides to take a dump?   

 

The reason it's taking a dump is that the rapid growth of the virus in areas outside of china clearly indicate that the numbers the Chinese are reporting absolute garbage.   The virus has already stagnated or stalled 3 of the worlds top 4 economies.   South Korea is home to one of the biggest car manufacturing plants on the planet.  Dont be surprised if that becomes effected. Supply chains will eventually get restored- but its not as easy and quick as many expect it to be.  With that said- my guess is that the market will moderately trim the losses by the end of the day. 

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40 minutes ago, culdeus said:

There was early on, but they don't exactly have like the internet there.

Or free press. Probably don't have the testing equipment/reagents either. To go to quarantine is probably being sent to the nearest gulag

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52 minutes ago, jvdesigns2002 said:

The reason it's taking a dump is that the rapid growth of the virus in areas outside of china clearly indicate that the numbers the Chinese are reporting absolute garbage.   The virus has already stagnated or stalled 3 of the worlds top 4 economies.   South Korea is home to one of the biggest car manufacturing plants on the planet.  Dont be surprised if that becomes effected. Supply chains will eventually get restored- but its not as easy and quick as many expect it to be.  With that said- my guess is that the market will moderately trim the losses by the end of the day. 

huh?

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Report from Italy

Quote

 

"Everyone's afraid of staying close to each other, lotsa people are wearing gloves and masks, and the most "first 20 minutes of a catastrophic movie" thing is that markets and stores have been taken by assault by people fighting each other over buying food and items that can last for over a month.

The weirdest part? I'm not even living in a part of Italy that's under the virus outbreak."

 

Looks like one areas in Germany are trying to get ahead of the game, and stores are already getting bought up (speculation partly due to Carnival season): 

Quote

I live in the south of Germany one hour away from the Swiss border, 20 minutes away from the French border.
I just got back from shopping to several supermarkets (Lidl, Aldi, Rewe).

Please consider that it is Monday so the shelves got all re-stocked this morning.

Well, pasta, toilet paper, frozen goods, flour, sugar and a lot of other stuff was either sold out or almost sold out and the stores were packed with people.

I asked one of the cashiers what is going on and he said: it's like Christmas today, we don't know what is going on. They called in additional staff to cope with all the shoppers.
Meanwhile German stock market is crashing (I sold everything last week!).

We don't even have cases here and people are already losing their ####.

I'm glad that I did my prepping weeks ago.

 

 

I feel bad for anyone who waits until that "Black Friday on Steroids" mess hits here to grab supplies...that's gonna suck :lol: 

Edited by [icon]

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19 minutes ago, msommer said:

Or free press. Probably don't have the testing equipment/reagents either. To go to quarantine is probably being sent to the nearest gulag

There was what sounded like a high ranking diplomat that broke quarantine and went to a public bath. He was summarily executed. I gather the Regime would take a rather conservative view to how they dispose of suspected cases.

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1 hour ago, Capella said:

I apologize to humidity for all the horrible things I’ve said about it for the last ummmmmm...42 years. 

I've never been so happy about swamp ### (I'm sure "donkey" will get filtered here, but I forget).

 

I saw this posted in another forum without a link. It seems to be presented as good news, but I would think that 1.40% death rate will rise, considering the lag:

"As of this time, the virus is active in 25 different countries.



Worldwide, there are 79,638 confirmed cases, of which 24,964 have recovered, at least 11,556 are in serious critical condition, and 2,624 people have died. There is a worldwide mortality rate of 3.29 percent, recovery rate of 31.35 percent, and a deaths/resolved stat of 9.51 percent with 34 percent of cases resolved.

Outside of China, there are 2,293 confirmed cases, of which 249 have recovered, at least 79 are in serious/critical condition, and 32 have died. Not including China, there is a mortality rate of 1.40 percent, recovery rate of 10.86 percent, and deaths resolved stat of 11.39 percent with 14 percent of cases resolved.

Out of all of the cases worldwide, 97.12 percent of them are located within mainland China."

And then we're trusting China's numbers for that 3.29% rate, which is already pretty devastating. According to Wiki, SARS killed at 9.6%, but SARS seemed way more contained than Corona.

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I’m a very frequent traveler who hasn’t travelled for the last month.  Hopping on a plane today, and I’m not exactly thrilled about it

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I work for a software company that has offices worldwide.   Our offices in China have been closed for more than a month.  Some offices in Japan, South Korea and Italy are closed as well.  I was just asked to make an assessment whether my entire team (all in North America) is able to work remotely.    

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30 minutes ago, Godsbrother said:

I work for a software company that has offices worldwide.   Our offices in China have been closed for more than a month.  Some offices in Japan, South Korea and Italy are closed as well.  I was just asked to make an assessment whether my entire team (all in North America) is able to work remotely.    

My company already did this two weeks ago.

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1 hour ago, Redwes25 said:

huh?

China is the 2nd biggest economy on the planet.  Their economy has halted due to the virus.  The only reason why their markets haven’t completely crashed is because their government is going to artificially prop it up with massive stimulus.  The third biggest economy on the planet is Germany—whose most recent figures show that their economy has stalled and showed no growth.  Much of the European markets are dependent on travelers/tourists  from China—and that has basically stopped.  No growth in the their economy—and keep in mind that they are the cream of the crop in the EU. If their economy has no growth—you can bet that France and Italy are also stalled (France and Italy are the 6th and 8th biggest economies on the planet by the way).  France has already signaled that they are concerned as their tourism numbers have dropped 30-40% due to the virus.   The fourth biggest economy on the planet is Japan—whose market has and will be further affected by this virus.   So already—you have some of the worlds biggest economies greatly effected by this thing.  The 5th biggest economy is India.   If this thing starts spreading there—not only would the humanitarian impacts be exponentially worse—but you’d also be looking at the vast majority of the worlds eight biggest economies being hugely effected by this. 

Edited by jvdesigns2002

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Just now, jvdesigns2002 said:

China is the 2nd biggest economy on the planet.  Their economy has halted due to the virus.  The only reason why their markets haven’t completely crashed is because their government is going to artificially prop it up with massive stimulus.  The third biggest economy on the planet is Germany—whose most release figures show that their economy has stalled and showed no growth.  Much of the European markets are dependent on travelers/tourists  from China—and that has basically stopped.  No growth in the their economy—and keep in mind that they are the cream of the crop in the EU. If their economy has no growth—you can bet that France and Italy are also stalled (France and Italy are the 6th and 8th biggest economies on the planet by the way).  France has already signaled that they are concerned as their tourism numbers have dropped 30-40% due to the virus.   The fourth biggest economy on the planet is Japan—whose market has and will be further affected by this virus.   So already—you have some of the worlds biggest economies greatly effected by this thing.  The 5th biggest economy is India.   If this thing starts spreading there—not only would the humanitarian impacts be exponentially worse—but you’d also be looking at the vast majority of the worlds eight biggest economies being hugely effected by this. 

Ok, well this is all jibberish if you think German/European economic issues are tied to this virus.  Your posts seem to be trying to create some sort of panic and I think you need to take a step back.  

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1 minute ago, Redwes25 said:

Ok, well this is all jibberish if you think German/European economic issues are tied to this virus.  Your posts seem to be trying to create some sort of panic and I think you need to take a step back.  

This virus will have an economic impact on virtually every countries economy—and it will and has already effected Europe.  Im not exaggerating anything—everything in my post is accurate.  Just do some research on what France just said about their tourism.  Here’s an article about Germany. 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/02/24/german-economy-stagnates-coronavirus-compounds-factory-woes/

My posts are not fear mongering. Some people in this thread and some people that are invested in our markets just expect this virus to be nothing and expect our markets to rise no matter what goes on in the rest of the world.Those are the people that are being unrealistic—not me.  Those people should maybe consider taking this thing a little more seriously.   

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10 minutes ago, jvdesigns2002 said:

China is the 2nd biggest economy on the planet.  Their economy has halted due to the virus.  The only reason why their markets haven’t completely crashed is because their government is going to artificially prop it up with massive stimulus.  The third biggest economy on the planet is Germany—whose most release figures show that their economy has stalled and showed no growth.  Much of the European markets are dependent on travelers/tourists  from China—and that has basically stopped.  No growth in the their economy—and keep in mind that they are the cream of the crop in the EU. If their economy has no growth—you can bet that France and Italy are also stalled (France and Italy are the 6th and 8th biggest economies on the planet by the way).  France has already signaled that they are concerned as their tourism numbers have dropped 30-40% due to the virus.   The fourth biggest economy on the planet is Japan—whose market has and will be further affected by this virus.   So already—you have some of the worlds biggest economies greatly effected by this thing.  The 5th biggest economy is India.   If this thing starts spreading there—not only would the humanitarian impacts be exponentially worse—but you’d also be looking at the vast majority of the worlds eight biggest economies being hugely effected by this. 

Please don't do the mongering thing.  

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Judging from this weekend's Costco trip, we're far from panic levels in my neck of the woods (MA).  But you guys got me for a 50lb bag of rice, some extra canned food, a case of vitamin water, and some Robitussin.  I could stay at home a couple weeks if I had to.  Slap it high?  

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1 minute ago, munga30 said:

Judging from this weekend's Costco trip, we're far from panic levels in my neck of the woods (MA).  But you guys got me for a 50lb bag of rice, some extra canned food, a case of vitamin water, and some Robitussin.  I could stay at home a couple weeks if I had to.  Slap it high?  

Sounds delicious.  With that kind of inventory you should be safe from looters

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Just now, matuski said:

Please don't do the mongering thing.  

Seriously—why are people calling the truth —-mongering?  Just ignore me if you choose to be an ostrich and want to put your head in the sand.   I am not interested n being called names or being labeled a fear mongerer.  If you want to have a discussion—then discuss—but do more than call people names like “prepper and mongerer” as that’s just juvenile and sophomoric. 

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24 minutes ago, jvdesigns2002 said:

Seriously—why are people calling the truth —-mongering?  Just ignore me if you choose to be an ostrich and want to put your head in the sand.   I am not interested n being called names or being labeled a fear mongerer.  If you want to have a discussion—then discuss—but do more than call people names like “prepper and mongerer” as that’s just juvenile and sophomoric. 

Your posts have a breathless hyperbolic quality which you then pass off as simply stating the facts.  It's exhausting.

But hey, you keep doing you.

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I’m unsure why having massive concerns  about the economy is fear-mongering.  A best-case scenario on the mortality rate is 1% and this virus is going to be very hard to stop.  The economy is going to suffer 

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33 minutes ago, jvdesigns2002 said:

Seriously—why are people calling the truth —-mongering?  Just ignore me if you choose to be an ostrich and want to put your head in the sand.   I am not interested n being called names or being labeled a fear mongerer.  If you want to have a discussion—then discuss—but do more than call people names like “prepper and mongerer” as that’s just juvenile and sophomoric. 

Because it is not the truth but from the last few pages of your posts it is clear you won't change so whatever.  

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2 minutes ago, tkrull said:

Your posts have a breathless hyperbolic quality which you then pass off as simply stating the facts.  It's exhausting.

But hey, you keep doing you.

Assessing risk is something that not only each and every investor should do—but each and every human should do.  From the very beginning there have been a few people in this thread that have warned that this virus is a huge risk humanitarily as well as economically.   Most of us got chastised for it.  Now look—the humanitarian part is clearly showing to be a major problem—and now the the economic part is sinking it—and our point of view still gets chastised.  If you want to ignore reality and ignore risk—go and ahead and do so. I don’t care.  Just have enough class to do so without the need to insult others who choose to pay more attention to risk than you do. 

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8 minutes ago, Redwes25 said:

Because it is not the truth but from the last few pages of your posts it is clear you won't change so whatever.  

What is not the truth?  Name it?  Is the chinese economy improving because of the virus?  Is japans economy moving ahead from it?  Do you not agree with the list of the worlds biggest economies? Is the German economy growing?  DId you want to mention that nearly 1.5 percent of germany’s GDP comes from the duty free shopping which is largely supported by Chinese tourists? Is that false too? Are frances and italy’s Economies not dependent on tourism and their luxury brands—both of which have seen major slow downs because of the virus?  What exactly is not true?  Please elaborate how any of that is off base.

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58 minutes ago, Redwes25 said:

Ok, well this is all jibberish if you think German/European economic issues are tied to this virus.  Your posts seem to be trying to create some sort of panic and I think you need to take a step back.  

Of course worldwide economies are tied to this virus.  Kind of foolish to claim they aren’t.

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i kind of like jvd's somewhat extreme takes.  kind of balances out the "what about the people that die every year from the regular flu!?" static.  

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9 minutes ago, jvdesigns2002 said:

What is not the truth?  Name it?  Is the chinese economy improving because of the virus?  Is japans economy moving ahead from it?  Do you not agree with the list of the worlds biggest economies? Is the German economy growing?  DId you want to mention that nearly 1.5 percent of germany’s GDP comes from the duty free shopping which is largely supported by Chinese tourists? Is that false too? Are frances and italy’s Economies not dependent on tourism and their luxury brands—both of which have seen major slow downs because of the virus?  What exactly is not true?  Please elaborate how any of that is off base.

You posted that "The virus has already stagnated or stalled 3 of the worlds top 4 economies."   This is completely false.  You then go on to point out that German economic growth is stalled for last reported period.  Your exact quote here "The third biggest economy on the planet is Germany—whose most recent figures show that their economy has stalled and showed no growth."  The most recent figures are the fourth quarter and you are right they showed no growth except the virus was only in Wuhan in very small numbers in the 4th quarter so their economic issues have nothing to do with the virus. You then go on a rant about economic issues created by stalled tourism out of China cratering EU economies, which is also la la land.  

I am sorry but none of these are true statements.  I do think there will be an economic impact from this virus and it could be big but I don't go around making stuff up, which is fear mongering.  

Edited by Redwes25
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