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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread

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58 minutes ago, msommer said:

Out hamming Mr Ham. Impressive

No. Ham actually bought a Costco. 

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21 minutes ago, shader said:

A best-case scenario on the mortality rate is 1% 

I don't think we know this yet. Not enough reliable data.  Could certainly wind up being a mortality rate of under 1%.

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Looking at another forum, people are saying that since the death rate is so heavily skewed towards the elderly, the effect on the economy long term will be beneficial because of the quick transfer of wealth from the aging boomers to the younger generations without the years of expensive health care they would normally have to provide their parents.  Pretty grim.  

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28 minutes ago, Capella said:

No. Ham actually bought a Costco. 

I really didn’t buy all that much, but yes, I’m prepared to wait out months, not weeks. 

Was listening to NPR in the car today, and they had a segment meant to calm nerves in the public. It’s the responsible thing to do, and taking the data in total, there are some things to at least not catastophize about.

But when cases are spreading in US cities, you’re going to see the runs on Costco and some real, if unnecessary runs on stores — unless we’re extraordinarily lucky and Spring/Summer plus isolation and quarantine tamp things down. 

Markets seem to have absorbed this as reality today. When people feel the breath of this in their regions, I’d rather not fight over a bag of rice. 

Edited by Mr. Ham

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1 hour ago, jvdesigns2002 said:

This virus will have an economic impact on virtually every countries economy—and it will and has already effected Europe.  Im not exaggerating anything—everything in my post is accurate.  Just do some research on what France just said about their tourism.  Here’s an article about Germany. 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/02/24/german-economy-stagnates-coronavirus-compounds-factory-woes/

My posts are not fear mongering. Some people in this thread and some people that are invested in our markets just expect this virus to be nothing and expect our markets to rise no matter what goes on in the rest of the world.Those are the people that are being unrealistic—not me.  Those people should maybe consider taking this thing a little more seriously.   

If there are those that think this virus won't have an affect on economies around the world, well good luck to you. I don't. This isn't fear mongering, it's a domino effect starting with one of the largest economies in the world (China) that has been shuttered for about a month with no foreseeable let up until this thing gets under control. If you chose to ignore that, cool, free world and all. No need to get down on the messenger though because he's right.

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Time Lapse Korea Cases

I kind of hate the way this is produced, but point is once the virus is spreading, it does so pretty covertly until wham, within a couple to a few days it explodes, 

First case was January. From the 18-24th, cases went from around 30-900.

Edited by Mr. Ham

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9 minutes ago, beer 30 said:

If there are those that think this virus won't have an affect on economies around the world, well good luck to you. I don't. This isn't fear mongering, it's a domino effect starting with one of the largest economies in the world (China) that has been shuttered for about a month with no foreseeable let up until this thing gets under control. If you chose to ignore that, cool, free world and all. No need to get down on the messenger though because he's right.

I don't think anyone is saying that it won't.  I think posting stuff that is not true is fear mongering.  

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26 minutes ago, Redwes25 said:

You posted that "The virus has already stagnated or stalled 3 of the worlds top 4 economies."   This is completely false.  You then go on to point out that German economic growth is stalled for last reported period.  Your exact quote here "The third biggest economy on the planet is Germany—whose most recent figures show that their economy has stalled and showed no growth."  The most recent figures are the fourth quarter and you are right they showed no growth except the virus was only in Wuhan in very small numbers in the 4th quarter so their economic issues have nothing to do with the virus. You then go on a rant about economic issues created by stalled tourism out of China cratering EU economies, which is also la la land.  

I am sorry but none of these are true statements.  I do think there will be an economic impact from this virus and it could be big but I don't go around making stuff up, which is fear mongering.  

Okay—this is this biggest pile of garbage that I’ve ever seen on these posts. Your biggest gripe is that I didn’t say that “the third biggest economy was stalled before the virus and the virus will compound that even further”?  Really—thats all you got?   I said 3 of the 4 worlds four biggest economies were stalled or stagnant—if Germanys economy was stagnant before the virus—it will slow down even more.  Do some research on the impact of Chinese tourism in Europe before you call that lala land.   I’m sorry—but I stand behind my comments.  If they offend you—ignore me.  The fact that this is your response to your argument against my posts is beyond ridiculous. We’ll just agree to disagree. Enjoy your day. 

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2 minutes ago, jvdesigns2002 said:

Okay—this is this biggest pile of garbage that I’ve ever seen on these posts. Your biggest gripe is that I didn’t say that “the third biggest economy was stalled before the virus and the virus will compound that even further”?  Really—thats all you got?   I said 3 of the 4 worlds four biggest economies were stalled or stagnant—if Germanys economy was stagnant before the virus—it will slow down even more.  Do some research on the impact of Chinese tourism in Europe before you call that lala land.   I’m sorry—but I stand behind my comments.  If they offend you—ignore me.  The fact that this is your response to your argument against my posts is beyond ridiculous. We’ll just agree to disagree. Enjoy your day. 

You said due to this virus.  That is made up garbage.  I quoted you word for word.  Sorry if you don't want to see it.  Whatever, I am done with this conversation.  

Edited by Redwes25

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35 minutes ago, Scoresman said:

Looking at another forum, people are saying that since the death rate is so heavily skewed towards the elderly, the effect on the economy long term will be beneficial because of the quick transfer of wealth from the aging boomers to the younger generations without the years of expensive health care they would normally have to provide their parents.  Pretty grim.  

Sort of like smoking.  Overall costs for health care is lower due to earlier death and less costly healthcare.

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Oil prices down due to coronavirus fears.  

Quote

"We should not underestimate the economic disruption, as a super spreader could trigger a massive drop in business activity around the globe," Stephen Innes, chief market strategist at AxiCorp, said in a note.

 

Edited by -fish-

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35 minutes ago, Redwes25 said:

I don't think anyone is saying that it won't.  I think posting stuff that is not true is fear mongering.  

 

29 minutes ago, Redwes25 said:

You said due to this virus.  That is made up garbage.  I quoted you word for word.  Sorry if you don't want to see it.  Whatever, I am done with this conversation.  

You're picking nits that don't need to be picked GB. Probably smart to drop it :thumbup:

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43 minutes ago, Redwes25 said:

You said due to this virus.  That is made up garbage.  I quoted you word for word.  Sorry if you don't want to see it.  Whatever, I am done with this conversation.  

The impacts are undetermined as of now, fluid situation and that could change quickly. It's impossible to say what the impacts will be at this juncture. 

China's economy is clearly at a standstill and really tough to draw comparable numbers; there are 10's of millions quarantined, common sense says this is a huge drag on their economy, I doubt anyone is refuting that. In 2003 (SARS), China's economy had a much smaller footprint on the rest of the world than today. Original forecasts for 2020 were around 6% growth out of China, those numbers have been revised lower and lower. While I'm very skeptical, I've seen numbers as low as negative 6% (which would be a ####### disaster),  but #### would really have to hit the fan to get there...  Only China's economy has been drastically impacted to date by this outbreak but South Korea appears on-deck. 

There is def an economic impact to be felt, it is just TBD and I doubt anyone can really model how mild or severe it will be. 

 

Edited by fantasycurse42
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Here’s some of my “lala land” lies for those of whom care to read.  Frances finance minister says tourism is down 30-40% due primarily to the virus.  Tourism represents roughly 7-8% of their GDP—but hey—i’m just a liar and fear mongerer. 

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/23/coronavirus-impact-france-sees-tourism-numbers-fall-by-30percent-to-40percent.html

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Wasn’t aware cruise industry was a $49 Billion. Have to think even with aggressive promotions that’s going to be down 25% this year. Wife and kids are still booked for two weeks at Disney World in May, and we’re planning on a month in Ireland in July-August. No need to look at those plans and assess whether they’re prudent until months from now, but they are at least in jeopardy. Lots of businesses could feel quite a burn this year.

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1 hour ago, Mr. Ham said:

Time Lapse Korea Cases

I kind of hate the way this is produced, but point is once the virus is spreading, it does so pretty covertly until wham, within a couple to a few days it explodes, 

First case was January. From the 18-24th, cases went from around 30-900.

Nice music

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I can’t think of a more hellish hell than sitting in my basement with my children for weeks on end eating rice and pinto beans.  My idea of survival in one of these doomsday scenarios will be to strap up the shotgun, go hit the local grocery store and gas station, and hope for the best.  I’ll take that and some mad max looters any day over the alternative.  

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3 hours ago, -fish- said:

Of course worldwide economies are tied to this virus.  Kind of foolish to claim they aren’t.

The German slowdown has absolutely nothing to do with the coronavirus

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4 minutes ago, Otis said:

sitting in my basement with my children for weeks on end eating rice and pinto beans

You need to find a way to harness the gasses produced. They could probably run a generator

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2 hours ago, -fish- said:

Oil prices are always heavily influenced by concerns over future demand. What next, water is wet? He was taking things that have already happened in q3/4 and using for an argument about the coronavirus impact now. That is at best disingenious

Edited by msommer
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3 minutes ago, msommer said:

The German slowdown has absolutely nothing to do with the coronavirus

Today, the coronavirus is clearly affecting the world's economies, including Germany.   It's pretty ridiculous to try to argue that coronavirus didn't have an affect on economies before it became an issue.  Nobody is arguing that.  It's a tortured reading at best.   

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2 minutes ago, msommer said:

Oil prices are always heavily influenced by concerns over future demand. What next, water is wet? He was taking things that have already happened in q3/4 and using for an argument about the coronavirus impact now. That is at best disingenious

No, you and Redwes25 are attempting to use tortured reading and straw men to defend your position.   

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1 minute ago, -fish- said:

No, you and Redwes25 are attempting to use tortured reading and straw men to defend your position.   

huh?  I am not the one who blamed economic slowdown in Germany which has been months in the making on the virus.  

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1 minute ago, Redwes25 said:

huh?  I am not the one who blamed economic slowdown in Germany which has been months in the making on the virus.  

Hint:   One of you looks bad.   It isn't him.  It's pretty easy to comprehend what he was saying.   Nobody is arguing what you are trying to criticize him for.   The rest of us understood his point.   

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12 minutes ago, Redwes25 said:

huh?  I am not the one who blamed economic slowdown in Germany which has been months in the making on the virus.  

The fact that their economy was stagnant in december before the virus became this much of an issue is more supportive of my point than it is of yours.   This virus is not going to expand their already stagnant economy—it’s going to contract it.  Which in turn very much supports exactly what I wrote.  The point I was making was crystal clear to everybody but you and a few people—and you are using a grammatical loophole to try to claim that my point was fear mongering.   Are you trying to claim that the Coronavirus will expand Germany’s economy and that my claim is false?Would you like to wager on that?  If not—just drop it—as both of our positions are crystal clear. 

Edited by jvdesigns2002

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25 minutes ago, msommer said:

Oil prices are always heavily influenced by concerns over future demand. What next, water is wet? He was taking things that have already happened in q3/4 and using for an argument about the coronavirus impact now. That is at best disingenious

I guess water is, indeed, wet :shrug:

Dow plunges 1,000 points on coronavirus fears, 3.5% drop is worst in two years

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/24/us-futures-coronavirus-outbreak.html

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47 minutes ago, Otis said:

I can’t think of a more hellish hell than sitting in my basement with my children for weeks on end eating rice and pinto beans.  My idea of survival in one of these doomsday scenarios will be to strap up the shotgun, go hit the local grocery store and gas station, and hope for the best.  I’ll take that and some mad max looters any day over the alternative.  

I've never done heroin, but people act like it's so great, that I wish I could just buy a lethal dose of some really good stuff to keep on hand for the end of the world. Then I can just go to a nice beach and see what it's all about. I might need to carry a gun with one bullet. That way, if someone takes it from me, and I get shot, they're #### out of luck going forward. Might need to get some obscure caliber so they couldn't find bullets easily.

Regardless, if the world ends, I don't want any part of putting it back together, especially after seeing the kind of people preppers are, assuming they're the ones rebuilding civilization (sorry, icon).

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I don't understand why we're even quarantining people now.  We've lost containment.  Almost everyone will get the coronovirus at some point in the next couple years, likely before a vaccine can be developed, tested and released widely enough to help.

Why not just let it run free now?  What are we buying time for with putting up firewalls for its spread?  Hopes that hot weather slows it down in half the world going into summer soon?

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“Hey guys, I’ve got this all sorted out. I’ve purchased enough barley and pinto beans, and have enough empty bathtubs filled with water, that my family and I can lock ourselves in our basement for 3-6 months. I’m so ready for this. Gonna be so rad.”

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I’m stuck inside with my kids for a three day weekend in the dead of winter, and I’m dying for a visit from a pack of looters. “Sorry honey gotta go out and fight some dudes, godspeed in here.”

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Can someone help me with my doomsday kit? What should I get besides canned tuna and bottles of water?

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I left work early and went to Sam’s Club. It was really slow. Lot better than going on the weekend. Got 3 cases of water and a big bag of rice and a few other things. 

I saw one other guy getting a lot of water. Don’t think a lot of folks are real worried. I bet most people don’t even know about it. 

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13 minutes ago, Otis said:

I’m stuck inside with my kids for a three day weekend in the dead of winter, and I’m dying for a visit from a pack of looters. “Sorry honey gotta go out and fight some dudes, godspeed in here.”

Does your family really suck that bad?

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30 minutes ago, jplvr said:

I've never done heroin, but people act like it's so great, that I wish I could just buy a lethal dose of some really good stuff to keep on hand for the end of the world. Then I can just go to a nice beach and see what it's all about. I might need to carry a gun with one bullet. That way, if someone takes it from me, and I get shot, they're #### out of luck going forward. Might need to get some obscure caliber so they couldn't find bullets easily.

Regardless, if the world ends, I don't want any part of putting it back together, especially after seeing the kind of people preppers are, assuming they're the ones rebuilding civilization (sorry, icon).

:lol: none taken. I'm definitely not a "prepper" (as evidenced by having to buy some crap in order to follow CDC guidelines), but I can appreciate the joke. 

Edited by [icon]
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I'm going to re-watch the documentary series Last Man on Earth.  To be certain, I'm not going to lock myself to someone like Carol.  I'm holding out for a Melisa or Erica.  Settle for Gail if I have to.

Oh yeah.  Add to to-do list:  Change middle name.  

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24 minutes ago, adonis said:

I don't understand why we're even quarantining people now.  We've lost containment.  Almost everyone will get the coronovirus at some point in the next couple years, likely before a vaccine can be developed, tested and released widely enough to help.

Why not just let it run free now?  What are we buying time for with putting up firewalls for its spread?  Hopes that hot weather slows it down in half the world going into summer soon?

I think we’ll have a vaccine in about a year. I really don’t want my family to get it prior to then. 

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3 minutes ago, [icon] said:

:lol: none taken. I'm definitely not a "prepper" (as evidenced by having to buy some crap in order to follow CDC guidelines), but I can appreciate the joke. 

One I remember seeing from that show (Preppers?) was some guy who built a fortress out of shipping containers. He was showing off how bullet proof they were, using a 22 rifle, shooting at his castle. Trouble was, there was a window he had cut out right beside where he was doing target practice. 

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Our treatment:

Quote

 

Bruce Patterson:

“Leronlimab enhances the innate and cellular immune response by inhibiting Treg cells which turn off the immune system. In addition, CCL5-CCR5 is one of the pathways that controls the massive migration of immune cells to sites of inflammation. Last, leronlimab reprograms macrophages. Taken together all of these effects don’t target the virus but it hopefully can mitigate the severe damage caused by the resulting cytokine storm.”

 

 

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24 minutes ago, fantasycurse42 said:

Can someone help me with my doomsday kit? What should I get besides canned tuna and bottles of water?

Imagine locking your door right now and not leaving your house for two weeks. 
 

That is what the CDC is currently advising people to be prepared to do. Guidelines are usually 1500-2000 calories and 1 gallon of water per person per day. 

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48 minutes ago, Random said:

Does your family really suck that bad?

How old are your kids?

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what kind of supplements should we be taking to boost our immunity?  echinacea? 

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1 hour ago, adonis said:

I don't understand why we're even quarantining people now.  We've lost containment.  Almost everyone will get the coronovirus at some point in the next couple years, likely before a vaccine can be developed, tested and released widely enough to help.

Why not just let it run free now?  What are we buying time for with putting up firewalls for its spread?  Hopes that hot weather slows it down in half the world going into summer soon?

There's value in slowing the spread. If everyone got sick all at once, the hospitals would be quickly overrun.  If you can slow the spread via quarantines or other good practices, maybe the health care facilities have a chance at keeping up, at least until more can be built or a treatment is developed.

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I'm confident that if it comes down to it, we can get the FFA hookup from chet on the treatment he is developing.  chet, can we send you our addresses now?

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