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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread

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1 minute ago, Mr Anonymous said:

I'm not talking about news articles (since those aren't good enough for people here), I'm talking about the peer reviewed studies I linked last week. Settle the eff down.

I am interested in reading those if you find them, can you please include me in the reply if you post those links again.

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2 minutes ago, the moops said:

I wouldn't worry too much about eating that 2K. No chance Broadway shows are up and running mid-April

Thanks and I agree.  I  was saying that at this point even if the Mayor/Governor/President all gave "back to work" orders tomorrow, there is no way I would go to NYC  before June.

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18 minutes ago, Anarchy99 said:

Holy guacamole. They are converting one of our local high schools to an emergency hospital. That takes kids going back to school this school year completely off the board. 

Kids were never going back to school this year. 

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50 minutes ago, Grace Under Pressure said:

From Cuomo's presser, the ventilator shortage is the critical bottleneck now. He says NY needs 30,000, FEMA is going to send 400. Not a typo.

Seriously, wtf? This is what the defense act is for, instead the Feds opted for volunteerism. Companies aren't going to say "oh sure I'll volunteer to reconfigure my entire manufacturing process". 

The ventilator shortage is going to lead to more deaths than we can contemplate. This needs to happen.

Roughly 20% of victims need to be hospitalized.  Some smaller % will need ventilator.  30,000?  Walk me through that math, Mr. Cuomo.

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19 minutes ago, Anarchy99 said:

Holy guacamole. They are converting one of our local high schools to an emergency hospital. That takes kids going back to school this school year completely off the board. 

Where again?

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1 minute ago, Mr Anonymous said:

I'm not talking about news articles (since those aren't good enough for people here), I'm talking about the peer reviewed studies I linked last week. Settle the eff down.

I'm confused. You made a statement that this is the official treatment in China and South Korea.  I just want to see a link, as I've not read that anywhere.  You want me to "settle the eff down" for asking for a link?

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26 minutes ago, Mr Anonymous said:

This article includes the Florida man I linked earlier who recovered after reaching a critical state as well as others who recovered after being given hydroxychloroquine. It also talks about it's use in other countries as well as the active studies...

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8143953/People-say-anti-malaria-drug-helped-recover-COVID-19.html

I hope it works but since they were  giving this to people back in China in January I doubt it is some sort of miracle cure.  Of course, that is why the WHO has set up trials on it.  

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1 minute ago, shader said:

I'm confused. You made a statement that this is the official treatment in China and South Korea.  I just want to see a link, as I've not read that anywhere.  You want me to "settle the eff down" for asking for a link?

Yes you jerk. I'm trying to find something with the exact study findings, not just an article that mentions them. What I linked last week were the actual studies on shared drives.

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3 minutes ago, chet said:

Roughly 20% of victims need to be hospitalized.  Some smaller % will need ventilator.  30,000?  Walk me through that math, Mr. Cuomo.

I don't know the math, but I imagine a decent percentage of ventilators they already have are in use

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Just now, Mr Anonymous said:
3 minutes ago, shader said:

I'm confused. You made a statement that this is the official treatment in China and South Korea.  I just want to see a link, as I've not read that anywhere.  You want me to "settle the eff down" for asking for a link?

Yes you jerk. I'm trying to find something with the exact study findings, not just an article that mentions them. What I linked last week were the actual studies on shared drives.

dudes. stop

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Posted (edited)
18 minutes ago, Capella said:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/23/opinion/coronavirus-economy-recession.html
 

NYT shows the states that are social distancing. You’ll never guess where the 5 dumbest states are located. 

That's interesting, because Alabama instituted restrictions on the day the first case was detected here.  Our state leadership has been much quicker than just about any other state as far as locking things down.  Alabama was one of the last to present a case, so you should likely compare our numbers from a week from now to NY today.  Or something similar.

You have the data right, but you're interpreting it a bit wrong here, GB.

Also interesting to note that the increases shown in AL are in very low population counties.  The urban areas have seen a decrease.  Traffic in Bham is definitely down now.

Edited by Sand
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Posted (edited)

@MTskibum Here's a start. It's a link which details the findings in Nature. Still looking for more direct links and shared docs but this includes some specific details...

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/03/17/an-effective-treatment-for-coronavirus-covid-19-has-been-found-in-a-common-anti-malarial-drug/

Quote

 

An Effective Treatment for Coronavirus (COVID-19)

Presented by: James M. Todaro, MD and Gregory J. Rigano, Esq.

In consultation with Stanford University School of Medicine, UAB School of Medicine and National Academy of Sciences researchers.

SPANISH: https://docs.google.com/document/d/e/2PACX-1vR1adodKPhWalV9djnerI2x_v1LGgGyhZZxpl0O5r-ZNyDdagqFq1rTCxXBqaeicfxgvypDOqKCZVyV/pub

        Translation by: Celia Martínez-Aceves (Yale B.S. Candidate 2021),  Martín Martínez (MIT B.S. 2017)

Summary

.  Use of chloroquine (tablets) is showing favorable outcomes in humans infected with Coronavirus including faster time to recovery and shorter hospital stay. 

 

Quote

The treatment guidelines of both South Korea and China against COVID-19 are generally consistent, outlining chloroquine as an effective treatment.

Quote

 

China prioritizes internal use of Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients (APIs) including Chloroquine[14]

In early February, Chongqing Kangle Pharmaceutical was requested by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Consumption Division to promptly increase the manufacturing and production of the active pharmaceutical ingredients chloroquine phosphate despite slowed production during the Chinese New Year.

 

I'll continue to try and dig out more direct links to the studies.

Edited by Mr Anonymous

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Props to Doug B.  He has been consistently on point in this thread of late. 🙂

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4 minutes ago, Mr Anonymous said:

Yes you jerk. I'm trying to find something with the exact study findings, not just an article that mentions them. What I linked last week were the actual studies on shared drives.

This type of behavior has never been acceptable in this forum

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3 minutes ago, trader jake said:

Props to Doug B.  He has been consistently on point in this thread of late. 🙂

Try "from the beginning".

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Posted (edited)
Quote

MSNBC @MSNBC

NEW: Senate Minority Leader Schumer says "we're on the [2-yard line]" of coronavirus relief negotiations; thinks deal can be reached “in the next few hours.”

Paging @Leroy Hoard -- we're counting on you.

Edited by Dinsy Ejotuz
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3 minutes ago, Mr Anonymous said:

Yes you jerk. I'm trying to find something with the exact study findings, not just an article that mentions them. What I linked last week were the actual studies on shared drives.

I feel you may consider this overly nit-picky, but:

A positive result reported in a study does not constitute an "official protocol". When you wrote "official protocol", that suggests to others that a nation's equivalent to our CDC has put forward a white paper and/or made a public pronouncement that a given treatment was now indicated as front-line care for COVID.

There have been positive studies for hydroxychloroquine, yes. There have been inconclusive studies as well -- and I suspect many more of the latter, though I have not counted them up. Calling it "official protocol" of any nation was a step too far. You're being called on that, but don't mistake those corrections for personal hostility.

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11 minutes ago, chet said:

Roughly 20% of victims need to be hospitalized.  Some smaller % will need ventilator.  30,000?  Walk me through that math, Mr. Cuomo.

Population of New York State is around 20 million people.  So he’s assuming that 0.15% of people might all need a ventilator at the same time.  That doesn’t seem so outrageous to me.

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Just now, shader said:

This type of behavior has never been acceptable in this forum

I don't care at this point. Report me.

Harassing someone for trying to find better sources than a Google search? Acting like if I couldn't dig up links to actual published medical studies within seconds meant they didn't exist?

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1 hour ago, Mr Anonymous said:

Cuomo emphasizing the need to increase hospital ICU capacity and ramp up supplies of PPE and ventilators to meet the projected numbers while sending young people back to work.

Mine's here...

https://forums.footballguys.com/forum/topic/784487-solve-the-coronavirus/page/2/?tab=comments#comment-22599541

I'm not sure if he said it or not, but I think as we open businesses back up, the workers cleared to go back should be going back with gloves and masks.

Heard somewhere that anaesthesia machines can be turned into ventilators?  That may help a great deal as there are many of those around.  Also, UM is working on a dirt simple machine.  That's a great idea and better than nothing.  

Also saw that the FDA is shutting down home testing.  That's likely to be a big mistake and typical of a bureaucracy like this.

 

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3 minutes ago, shader said:

Italy has reported 5,249 new cases and 743 new deaths.

 

New cases are down, but new deaths are up. Not sure how to interpret that except to say we'll (still) need a few more days data to see if the downward trend is really holding. Thoughts?

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14 minutes ago, chet said:

Roughly 20% of victims need to be hospitalized.  Some smaller % will need ventilator.  30,000?  Walk me through that math, Mr. Cuomo.

Population of NY is 19.5 million. He's been saying something like 50-70 percent of population is going to contract it. Let's say 60 percent. That's 11.7 million. If 2 percent of those cases (just a random number I picked) are severe that's 234,000 cases. Obviously not all hitting the hospital at one time.

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6 minutes ago, shader said:

Italy has reported 5,249 new cases and 743 new deaths.

 

Jerk

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1 minute ago, Doug B said:

I feel you may consider this overly nit-picky, but:

A positive result reported in a study does not constitute an "official protocol". When you wrote "official protocol", that suggests to others that a nation's equivalent to our CDC has put forward a white paper and/or made a public pronouncement that a given treatment was now indicated as front-line care for COVID.

There have been positive studies for hydroxychloroquine, yes. There have been inconclusive studies as well -- and I suspect many more of the latter, though I have not counted them up. Calling it "official protocol" of any nation was a step too far. You're being called on that, but don't mistake those corrections for personal hostility.

Yes, thanks captain obvious. That's why I'm still trying to find the links where it was called protocol in South Korea and China.

I'd say sharing a published medical study saying "According to South Korean and China human treatment guidelines, chloroquine is effective in treating COVID-19." is a good place to start in the meantime.

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15 minutes ago, chet said:

Roughly 20% of victims need to be hospitalized.  Some smaller % will need ventilator.  30,000?  Walk me through that math, Mr. Cuomo.

On 3/18, there were 1871 cases in NY...6 days later, there are 25665.

I imagine the rate of infection will decrease simply because the 1871 number is a small denominator.  But if cases double every 60 hours, that means 200k cases in NY this time next week.

With Cuomo stating apex is still 14-21 days away...I think that’s the fear here.

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1 minute ago, Grace Under Pressure said:

New cases are down, but new deaths are up. Not sure how to interpret that except to say we'll (still) need a few more days data to see if the downward trend is really holding. Thoughts?

Deaths lag hospitalizations which lag confirmed cases which lags people getting infected.  It hopefully means the lockdown is working and is getting Re below 1.

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7 minutes ago, shader said:

Italy has reported 5,249 new cases and 743 new deaths.

Damn. Both numbers up from yesterday.

Down from the peak, but still. Their curve has not flattened.

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Just now, Grace Under Pressure said:

New cases are down, but new deaths are up. Not sure how to interpret that except to say we'll (still) need a few more days data to see if the downward trend is really holding. Thoughts?

New cases are down from their peak, but they are up from yesterday. 4,789 to 5,249.

 

Also, deaths should continue to rise because it's a lagging indicator. 

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We're all stressed people, can we try to keep things civil? If not, take it to PMs. 

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Posted (edited)

International travellers to Beijing to pay for 14 days of coronavirus quarantine

A week ago Beijing announced all arrivals to the capital must self-isolate at home or in a designated hotel or hostel for 14 days. A few days later, the rules were tightened again, to remove the option of staying at home, and requiring quarantined arrivals to pay their accommodation costs.

Edited by bradyfan

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1 minute ago, Mr Anonymous said:

Yes, thanks captain obvious. That's why I'm still trying to find the links where it was called protocol in South Korea and China.

I'd say sharing a published medical study saying "According to South Korean and China human treatment guidelines, chloroquine is effective in treating COVID-19." is a good place to start in the meantime.

I don't report people. But I do ignore liberally.  Doug B has been super helpful throughout this thread and there's no need for this, but hey, do what you want because I won't be reading anymore of your posts.

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3 minutes ago, [scooter] said:

Damn. Both numbers up from yesterday.

Down from the peak, but still. Their curve has not flattened.

Yeah as long as there are 5,000 new reported cases in a day, the quarantine goes on for the foreseeable future.

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43 minutes ago, Mr Anonymous said:

Do you think the article is a lie?

Everyone does here

38 minutes ago, gruecd said:

I feel pretty confident that by then she and I will both have been exposed to the virus and developed immunity.  :shrug: 

Not knocking it but you're also one of the fittest BAMF's on the site. I feel like you are less at risk than old man Chem X.

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Posted (edited)

Here's another link with the full contents of a study on Chloroquine...

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0883944120303907?via%3Dihub

Mentions the Dutch CDC suggesting the drug for use on patients requiring hospitalization or in ICU...

Quote

The Dutch Center of Disease control (CDC), in a public document on its website, suggested to treat severe infections requiring admission to the hospital and oxygen therapy or admitted to the ICU with chloroquine

And the Italian Society of Infectious and Tropical disease...

Quote

Another guideline document by the Italian Society of Infectious and Tropical disease (Lombardy section) recommend the use of chlorochine 500 mg × 2/die or hydroxychloroquine 200 mg die for 10 days, although the treatment may vary from 5 to 20 days according to clinical severity. 

This mentions a protocol of how to conduct studies of chloroquine by WHO to other nations in response to the early studies of the drug in China...

Quote

Chinese authorities have recently issued a directive to regulate and coordinate clinical trials studying potential pharmacological treatments for COVID-19 [11]. The results of these trials will be the first available on humans, since studies published to date on the characteristics and management of patients with COVID-19 did not report data about chloroquine use [1,[12], [13], [14], [15]]. Of note, the WHO published a generic protocol for randomized clinical trials to investigate the clinical efficacy and safety of drugs in hospitalized patients with COVID-19 (i.e. a “master template” for researching drugs in this setting) [16].

Study conclusion...

Quote

 

5. Conclusion

There is sufficient pre-clinical rationale and evidence regarding the effectiveness of chloroquine for treatment of COVID-19 as well as evidence of safety from long-time use in clinical practice for other indications [3] to justify clinical research on the topic. The current circumstances justify prioritization of ethical review of study proposals above other, less pressing, research topics (i.e. fast track institutional ethical review). Although the use of chloroquine may be supported by expert opinion, clinical use of this drug in patients with COVID-19 should adhere to the MEURI framework or after ethical approval as a trial as stated by the WHO. Data from high-quality, coordinated, clinical trials coming from different locations worldwide are urgently needed.

 

 

Again, it's not lick handrails time but there's plenty of reason for hope and optimism. And no one should have a problem with someone sharing links like this.

I'll find more when I have the time later today.

Edited by Mr Anonymous
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2 hours ago, tangfoot said:

You may need to talk to your doctor about what app(s) they are allowed to use for telehealth.  Most video chat apps are not HIPPA compliant.

The restrictions for HIPPA approved tele-visits were some of the first to be relaxed when it became clear how bad this was.

 

38 minutes ago, MAC_32 said:

This is an extremely difficult thread to keep up with - if you have good information to share then doing so multiple times is not a bad thing. Fine line between spam and all, obviously. 

Sounds like a good time to again mention that the strong measures (lockdowns / shelter-in-place / flatten the curve) are intended to prevent our the US healthcare system from being overwhelmed. Lots more people die when that happens and many could survive if we just slow it down enough for hospitals to keep up with the demand for treatment. 

I need to just copy that to notepad for ease of use. 😄

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5 minutes ago, fatguyinalittlecoat said:

Population of New York State is around 20 million people.  So he’s assuming that 0.15% of people might all need a ventilator at the same time.  That doesn’t seem so outrageous to me.

You also need beds and personnel to run those machines which would be the bottleneck IMO.  There are ~950k hospital beds in the US which means in NY, there are probably 20/350 * 950,000 = ~54k beds.  But ~2/3 of those are already in use for chronically ill patients which means you'd have 18k free beds for all COVID-19 victims.  So to use 30k ventilators, you'd need 12k additional beds and then you'd have NO room for anyone else with COVID-19.  The numbers don't work when you drill down a little.

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16 minutes ago, Mr Anonymous said:

@MTskibum Here's a start. It's a link which details the findings in Nature. Still looking for more direct links and shared docs but this includes some specific details...

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/03/17/an-effective-treatment-for-coronavirus-covid-19-has-been-found-in-a-common-anti-malarial-drug/

I'll continue to try and dig out more direct links to the studies.

First off, information about scientific matters of this import cannot come from just any website. WattsUpWithThat.com (tagline: The world's most viewed site on global warming and climate change) does not qualify. However ... they do provide a link to original paper in the second paragraph, in the 'Encouraging News' section, but ...

... the link is dead. Why? Google Docs throws up a message: "We're sorry. You can't access this item because it is in violation of our Terms of Service."

The article does pull together bits and pieces of information from other sources, and aims to pass it off as some kind of scientific consensus. The authors also made up a major claim out of whole cloth that "[the] treatment guidelines of both South Korea and China against COVID-19 are generally consistent, outlining chloroquine as an effective treatment." There were links given to support this statement, but those links, too, are dead Google Docs links.

See a pattern forming?

...

There are reasons some of us insist on corroboration of new information, on favored citations from traditional news sources, and such. It's not to be contentious jerks. It's because just about anything can be published online without fact-checking. And there are furthermore many ways of publishing things online to make them look better than they are. To look ... official, even. But a skeptical mind must always be employed when faced with new, impactful information.

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Posted (edited)

Just saw a story where someone ingested Chloroquine Phosphate, ignoring the bright orange sticker that said "Not for human consumption" (since it's used to clean fish tanks)

PSA - Drinking Hydrogen Peroxide (H2O2)  will not yield the same results as drinking Dihydrogen Monoxide (H2O) even though they both contain the same chemicals

Edited by Statorama
spelling
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8 minutes ago, Mr Anonymous said:

Here's another link with the full contents of a study on Chloroquine...

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0883944120303907?via%3Dihub

Mentions the Dutch CDC suggesting the drug for use on patients requiring hospitalization or in ICU...

And the Italian Society of Infectious and Tropical disease...

This mentions a protocol of how to conduct studies of chloroquine by WHO to other nations in response to the early studies of the drug in China...

Study conclusion...

Again, it's not lick handrails time but there's plenty of reason for hope and optimism. And no one should have a problem with someone sharing links like this.

The administration should bet on the come and ramp up US based production of this stuff.  About a zillion tablets will do.

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28 minutes ago, Mr Anonymous said:

@MTskibum Here's a start. It's a link which details the findings in Nature. Still looking for more direct links and shared docs but this includes some specific details...

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/03/17/an-effective-treatment-for-coronavirus-covid-19-has-been-found-in-a-common-anti-malarial-drug/

I'll continue to try and dig out more direct links to the studies.

I appreciate the link, although I was really hoping to read a double blind study with patients that are given the drug when symptoms first present themselves. What percent of hospitalizations could the drug prevent when provided early enough, etc.

 

That might be a few weeks to a month off though.

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2 minutes ago, chet said:

You also need beds and personnel to run those machines which would be the bottleneck IMO.  There are ~950k hospital beds in the US which means in NY, there are probably 20/350 * 950,000 = ~54k beds.  But ~2/3 of those are already in use for chronically ill patients which means you'd have 18k free beds for all COVID-19 victims.  So to use 30k ventilators, you'd need 12k additional beds and then you'd have NO room for anyone else with COVID-19.  The numbers don't work when you drill down a little.

They are trying to increase the number of beds too.

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29 minutes ago, shader said:

Italy has reported 5,249 new cases and 743 new deaths.

 

Not as good as I had hopped on cases but new cases are clearly flattening out.  Death number is awful but it is lagging number.  

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2 minutes ago, Doug B said:

First off, information about scientific matters of this import cannot come from just any website. WattsUpWithThat.com (tagline: The world's most viewed site on global warming and climate change) does not qualify. However ... they do provide a link to original paper in the second paragraph, in the 'Encouraging News' section, but ...

... the link is dead. Why? Google Docs throws up a message: "We're sorry. You can't access this item because it is in violation of our Terms of Service."

Then try the next one I posted.

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10 minutes ago, Mr Anonymous said:

Here's another link with the full contents of a study on Chloroquine...

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0883944120303907?via%3Dihub

Mentions the Dutch CDC suggesting the drug for use on patients requiring hospitalization or in ICU...

And the Italian Society of Infectious and Tropical disease...

This mentions a protocol of how to conduct studies of chloroquine by WHO to other nations in response to the early studies of the drug in China...

Study conclusion...

 

Again, it's not lick handrails time but there's plenty of reason for hope and optimism. And no one should have a problem with someone sharing links like this.

I'll find more when I have the time later today.

The below quote is from that link. They are hopeful that it will work, but not much proof yet.

 

A narrative letter by Chinese authors reported that a news briefing from the State Council of China had indicated that “Chloroquine phosphate… had demonstrated marked efficacy and acceptable safety in treating COVID-19 associated pneumonia in multicentre clinical trials conducted in China” [5]. The authors also stated that these findings came from “more than 100 patients” included in the trials [5]. We sought for evidence of such data in the trial registries we reviewed and found none.

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1 minute ago, MTskibum said:

I appreciate the link, although I was really hoping to read a double blind study with patients that are given the drug when symptoms first present themselves. What percent of hospitalizations could the drug prevent when provided early enough, etc.

 

That might be a few weeks to a month off though.

:goodposting:

There are two big questions with this stuff - does it reduce the severity of the disease once presented?  And is it effective as a prophylcatic?

Both are huge questions.

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