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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread

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Posted (edited)

hi guys.  Last week I went to the ER with chest pains - fortunately, it was indigestion.  still, I learned my blood pressure has been way up than it has been recently, I assume that's partly caused by corona virus news.  so, I decided to take some time away if possible.  Turns out, it really isn't possible to escape the news, and so I might as well chat here about it. But I won't argue with anyone... that includes pointing out foulty logic, bad math, or clearly politics of the situation. 

I am a numbers guy.  I find comfort in understanding the math behind everything that goes on, and I have been following this fairly closely, especially in this country (obviously, I don't find the numbers themselves to be comforting but it's better to know than not, IMO).  As pointed out in this blog post, CV diagnosis have grown fairly consistently at 22% per day across Europe.  I was curious if the same pattern follows here.  However, as we know, testing is an issue in the US so I have been watching the mortality rate.  If we can assume the number of cases and the number of deaths (i.e. actual CFR) is proportional, we can just watch the death rates...so that is what I have been doing.

We had our first death 2/29.  Applying a 22% increase every day, we should have had 533 culmulative deaths yesterday.  We actually had 559....very close.  In fact, we have had very close to a 22% growth every day since 2/29.  It seemed a bit lower last week but we have really ramped up this week.

Based on this article, there was roughly a 12 day lag between China shutting things down and the new cases starting to level off.  of course, the deaths lagged even more - the deaths didn't start to decrease for another 8 days.  That means, once China applied mitigation efforts, the death rate wasn't impacted for another 20 days.

And, after the deaths started decreasing, they fell at roughly a mirror of ramping up - i.e. if you want the total number of deaths until we are done, you can take the total number of deaths at the peak and double it.  

We first did something about the CV on 3/13 - that's the monday after the NBA shut down, schoos started closing, etc.  20 days later is April 5th.  If our deaths increase until April 5th and then come down, we are looking at 7122 14244  total deaths.   If our 3/16 actions weren't actually effective and we didn't do anything meaningful until yesterday, our deaths don't start decreasing until 4/12 and we are looking at 57329 total dead Americans.  If we don't take drastic enough measures until next monday, we are looking at 230664 dead Americans.

All of this does not account for hospitals being overrun, running out of beds, ventilators, etc.  It's purely extrapolating a 22% daily increase, which is pretty damn close to the trend we have been on since this started and the same trend the rest of the world (minus Japan and South Korea and some other warm countries).  If you want to talk about CFR (and argue denominator, yada yada yada), the US is at 1.28% - well below most other countries I am watching.

TL/DR: if we dont take drastic enough actions by Monday, we are looking at 230k dead Americans.  This estimate is based on extrapolating the number of deaths at the same rate they have been increasing already.

ETA: the 230k by next monday?  That number doubles roughly every 2 or 3 days until we get this done.

ETA2: if deaths start decreasing by April 5th, ae are looking at at a total of 14244 deaths.  I had 7122...forgot to double that one.  IMO thjis is the minimum death tally we can expect (for this peak).

Edited by moleculo
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45 minutes ago, Sand said:

That's interesting, because Alabama instituted restrictions on the day the first case was detected here.  Our state leadership has been much quicker than just about any other state as far as locking things down.  Alabama was one of the last to present a case, so you should likely compare our numbers from a week from now to NY today.  Or something similar.

You have the data right, but you're interpreting it a bit wrong here, GB.

Also interesting to note that the increases shown in AL are in very low population counties.  The urban areas have seen a decrease.  Traffic in Bham is definitely down now.

I was going to say the same about NC. We had 0 cases in my county when schools were shut down. I’ve been out to get more food and pickup dinner and everything has been pretty dead. Went to Costco yesterday afternoon after my last meeting since we heard there could be an even bigger shut down (schools now closed until mid-May) and there were 5 or 6 people in line when I left. I’ve never seen it less busy. A big area for dinner places and shopping was dead when I drove by on Friday. I’ve barely been out of the house for a couple weeks. Funny that CA and NY are being lauded yet every picture of big gathering has been there or FL. I feel like NC shut down well before other states did based on cases and the more spread out nature to start. It’s not surprising that people would move around more in NC based on cell phones because we aren’t a block away from food and supplies. Anyway, I sure haven’t seen a lot of the who cares that this article seems to throw around.

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2 minutes ago, moleculo said:

hi guys.  Last week I went to the ER with chest pains - fortunately, it was indigestion.  still, I learned my blood pressure has been way up than it has been recently, I assume that's partly caused by corona virus news.  so, I decided to take some time away if possible.  turns out, it really isn't possible to escape the news, and so I might as well chat here about it, but I won't argue with anyone, and that includes pointing out foulty logic, bad math, or clearly politics of the situation. 

I am a numbers guy.  I find comfort in understanding the math behind everything that goes on, and I have been following this fairly closely, especially in this country (obviously, I don't find the numbers themselves to be comforting but it's better to know than not, IMO).  As pointed out in this blog post, CV diagnosis have grown fairly consistently at 22% per day across Europe.  I was curious if the same pattern follows here.  However, as we know, testing is an issue in the US so I have been watching the mortality rate.  If we can assume the number of cases and the number of deaths (i.e. actual CFR) is proportional, we can just watch the death rates...so that is what I have been doing.

We had our first death 2/29.  Applying a 22% increase every day, we should have had 533 culmulative deaths yesterday.  We actually had 559....very close.  In fact, we have had very close to a 22% growth every day since 2/29.  It seemed a bit lower last week but we have really ramped up this week.

Based on this article, there was roughly a 12 day lag between China shutting things down and the new cases starting to level off.  of course, the deaths lagged even more - the deaths didn't start to decrease for another 8 days.  That means, once China applied mitigation efforts, the death rate wasn't impacted for another 20 days.

And, after the deaths started decreasing, they fell at roughly a mirror of ramping up - i.e. if you want the total number of deaths until we are done, you can take the total number of deaths at the peak and double it.  

We first did something about the CV on 3/13 - that's the monday after the NBA shut down, schoos started closing, etc.  20 days later is April 5th.  If our deaths increase until April 5th and then come down, we are looking at 7122 total deaths.   If our 3/16 actions weren't actually effective and we didn't do anything meaningful until yesterday, our deaths don't start decreasing until 4/12 and we are looking at 57329 total dead Americans.  If we don't take drastic enough measures until next monday, we are looking at 230664 dead Americans.

All of this does not account for hospitals being overrun, running out of beds, ventilators, etc.  It's purely extrapolating a 22% daily increase, which is pretty damn close to the trend we have been on since this started and the same trend the rest of the world (minus Japan and South Korea and some other warm countries).  If you want to talk about CFR (and argue denominator, yada yada yada), the US is at 1.28% - well below most other countries I am watching.

TL/DR: if we dont take drastic enough actions by Monday, we are looking at 230k dead Americans.  This estimate is based on extrapolating the number of deaths at the same rate they have been increasing already.

Agree with the numbers but USA shutdown <> China shutdown.

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2 minutes ago, stbugs said:

I was going to say the same about NC. We had 0 cases in my county when schools were shut down. I’ve been out to get more food and pickup dinner and everything has been pretty dead. Went to Costco yesterday afternoon after my last meeting since we heard there could be an even bigger shut down (schools now closed until mid-May) and there were 5 or 6 people in line when I left. I’ve never seen it less busy. A big area for dinner places and shopping was dead when I drove by on Friday. I’ve barely been out of the house for a couple weeks. Funny that CA and NY are being lauded yet every picture of big gathering has been there or FL. I feel like NC shut down well before other states did based on cases and the more spread out nature to start. It’s not surprising that people would move around more in NC based on cell phones because we aren’t a block away from food and supplies. Anyway, I sure haven’t seen a lot of the who cares that this article seems to throw around.

it sounds way different north of the state line than it does here.  SC doesn't feel shut down hardly at all.

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Posted (edited)
19 minutes ago, Mr Anonymous said:

Then try the next one I posted.

No better, but for different reasons. Can spell it out a little later.

EDIT: I know it comes across as "Whatever I link to will get rejected." I assure that is not the case, but for now I can only ask you to accept that as a matter of good will. I think you do deserve a response as to specifically why the ScienceDirect link falls short.

Edited by Doug B

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11 minutes ago, fatguyinalittlecoat said:

Agreed.  We had some discussion in this thread a while back about whether it would be possible to train people quickly to assist with some of the easier tasks normally performed by doctors, nurses, and ventilator operators, freeing those highly-trained people to focus on the more difficult tasks.  Some knowledgeable people thought it would be impossible, others seemed to think it could work, at least at the margins.  I don't have the background to know myself.

When this is over, we need to seriously consider offering nursing school for free to students who then graduate and are placed in a job of severe need to help pay off the expense of their schooling.  We need more nurses and an incentive to get those numbers up.   Nursing school is hella expensive and the debt loads crush many newbies.

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Posted (edited)
58 minutes ago, moleculo said:

hi guys.  Last week I went to the ER with chest pains - fortunately, it was indigestion.  still, I learned my blood pressure has been way up than it has been recently, I assume that's partly caused by corona virus news.  so, I decided to take some time away if possible.  turns out, it really isn't possible to escape the news, and so I might as well chat here about it, but I won't argue with anyone, and that includes pointing out foulty logic, bad math, or clearly politics of the situation. 

I am a numbers guy.  I find comfort in understanding the math behind everything that goes on, and I have been following this fairly closely, especially in this country (obviously, I don't find the numbers themselves to be comforting but it's better to know than not, IMO).  As pointed out in this blog post, CV diagnosis have grown fairly consistently at 22% per day across Europe.  I was curious if the same pattern follows here.  However, as we know, testing is an issue in the US so I have been watching the mortality rate.  If we can assume the number of cases and the number of deaths (i.e. actual CFR) is proportional, we can just watch the death rates...so that is what I have been doing.

We had our first death 2/29.  Applying a 22% increase every day, we should have had 533 culmulative deaths yesterday.  We actually had 559....very close.  In fact, we have had very close to a 22% growth every day since 2/29.  It seemed a bit lower last week but we have really ramped up this week.

Based on this article, there was roughly a 12 day lag between China shutting things down and the new cases starting to level off.  of course, the deaths lagged even more - the deaths didn't start to decrease for another 8 days.  That means, once China applied mitigation efforts, the death rate wasn't impacted for another 20 days.

And, after the deaths started decreasing, they fell at roughly a mirror of ramping up - i.e. if you want the total number of deaths until we are done, you can take the total number of deaths at the peak and double it.  

We first did something about the CV on 3/13 - that's the monday after the NBA shut down, schoos started closing, etc.  20 days later is April 5th.  If our deaths increase until April 5th and then come down, we are looking at 7122 total deaths.   If our 3/16 actions weren't actually effective and we didn't do anything meaningful until yesterday, our deaths don't start decreasing until 4/12 and we are looking at 57329 total dead Americans.  If we don't take drastic enough measures until next monday, we are looking at 230664 dead Americans.

All of this does not account for hospitals being overrun, running out of beds, ventilators, etc.  It's purely extrapolating a 22% daily increase, which is pretty damn close to the trend we have been on since this started and the same trend the rest of the world (minus Japan and South Korea and some other warm countries).  If you want to talk about CFR (and argue denominator, yada yada yada), the US is at 1.28% - well below most other countries I am watching.

TL/DR: if we dont take drastic enough actions by Monday, we are looking at 230k dead Americans.  This estimate is based on extrapolating the number of deaths at the same rate they have been increasing already.

to bolster this: Italy issued their stay at home order 3/9.  12 days later was 3/21 - new cases have decreased since that date.  Of course, deaths have as well.  Deaths really shouldn't be decreasing until 3/29 (assuming italy follows the same trend as China).

Edited by moleculo
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1 minute ago, moleculo said:

to bolster this: Italy issued their stay at home order 3/9.  12 days later was 3/21 - active cases have decreased since that date.  Of course, deaths have as well.  Deaths really shouldn't be decreasing until 3/29 (assuming italy follows the same trend as China).

Great points.  But what we don't know is how closely Italy will follow China.  Will Italy's measures just slow down the spread and turn it into a slow, creeping spread?  Or will their active cases decrease to practically nothing, as has happened in communist China, where their quarantine was enforced very strictly?  That's what we don't know.  

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1 minute ago, shader said:

Great points.  But what we don't know is how closely Italy will follow China.  Will Italy's measures just slow down the spread and turn it into a slow, creeping spread?  Or will their active cases decrease to practically nothing, as has happened in communist China, where their quarantine was enforced very strictly?  That's what we don't know.  

right.  that means, becasue the projections I posted are based on Chinese data, and because China's lockdown is likely more effective than ours, the projections should be considered best case.

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1 hour ago, shader said:

Italy has reported 5,249 new cases and 743 new deaths.

 

Remind me, is that higher or lower than their daily number of "deaths by staircase"?

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17 minutes ago, moleculo said:

it sounds way different north of the state line than it does here.  SC doesn't feel shut down hardly at all.

Move north. Become one of us. 🙂

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15 minutes ago, General Malaise said:

When this is over, we need to seriously consider offering nursing school for free to students who then graduate and are placed in a job of severe need to help pay off the expense of their schooling.  We need more nurses and an incentive to get those numbers up.   Nursing school is hella expensive and the debt loads crush many newbies.

Nurses get paid amazingly well in California.  Often, more than doctors.  I don’t see why we should be subsidizing their degrees.

Other states may be different.

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3 minutes ago, jonessed said:

Nurses get paid amazingly well in California.  Often, more than doctors.  I don’t see why we should be subsidizing their degrees.

Other states may be different.

California may have the strongest nursing union in the nation. Before COVID-19, our company was gearing up for a contract renegotiation.

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27 minutes ago, General Malaise said:

When this is over, we need to seriously consider offering nursing school for free to students who then graduate and are placed in a job of severe need to help pay off the expense of their schooling.  We need more nurses and an incentive to get those numbers up.   Nursing school is hella expensive and the debt loads crush many newbies.

The nursing slots at public universities and colleges are super competitive because of affordability, quality and guaranteed accreditation. As a result, in South Florida and elsewhere, many for-profit schools have emerged and some are unscrupulous.  I'd double or triple the nursing enrollment at public schools.

There also need to be more medical school and residency slots.

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35 minutes ago, General Malaise said:

When this is over, we need to seriously consider offering nursing school for free to students who then graduate and are placed in a job of severe need to help pay off the expense of their schooling.  We need more nurses and an incentive to get those numbers up.   Nursing school is hella expensive and the debt loads crush many newbies.

my nurse friends struggle to get jobs, here in SoCal

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2 minutes ago, DA RAIDERS said:

my nurse friends struggle to get jobs, here in SoCal

Well, there are likely some opportunities right now.

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So other than going to the store and standing in line with the masses (which I can't do), has anyone had any success ordering TP on-line. Everything on Amazon looks to be coming from China sometime in May and the local grocery stores won't let you add it to your order and pick it up. 

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5 hours ago, JAA said:

IK - no offense but I hope you realize you might be wrong.  That's different than me saying you are wrong, I'm saying you could be wrong.  Do you agree?

Here's an article that makes an argument counter to mine.  It's about the UK specifically, but the researchers' argument would apply to the US too.

Quote

The new coronavirus may already have infected far more people in the UK than scientists had previously estimated — perhaps as much as half the population — according to modelling by researchers at the University of Oxford. If the results are confirmed, they imply that fewer than one in a thousand of those infected with Covid-19 become ill enough to need hospital treatment, said Sunetra Gupta, professor of theoretical epidemiology, who led the study. The vast majority develop very mild symptoms or none at all. “We need immediately to begin large-scale serological surveys — antibody testing — to assess what stage of the epidemic we are in now,” she said. The modelling by Oxford’s Evolutionary Ecology of Infectious Disease group indicates that Covid-19 reached the UK by mid-January at the latest. Like many emerging infections, it spread invisibly for more than a month before the first transmissions within the UK were officially recorded at the end of February.

https://www.ft.com/content/5ff6469a-6dd8-11ea-89df-41bea055720b

I think this is unlikely and it seems to be an outlier viewpoint, but it's worth nothing that somebody who knows what they're talking about does actually subscribe to this theory.

 

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5 minutes ago, The Z Machine said:

Well, there are likely some opportunities right now.

so far, they're not even pulling any OT

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41 minutes ago, moleculo said:

to bolster this: Italy issued their stay at home order 3/9.  12 days later was 3/21 - active cases have decreased since that date.  Of course, deaths have as well.  Deaths really shouldn't be decreasing until 3/29 (assuming italy follows the same trend as China).

The graph you site shows active cases from 42,681 on 3/21 to 50,418 on 3/23.  The active cases have increased by almost 8,000.

Perhaps what you are trying to say is that the rate of increase in new cases is decreasing, which isn't nearly the same thing.  But it is also very important (i.e., the curve may indeed be flattening)

Apologies if this appears to be just semantics, but it's critical to understand the difference.

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4 minutes ago, IvanKaramazov said:

Here's an article that makes an argument counter to mine.  It's about the UK specifically, but the researchers' argument would apply to the US too.

https://www.ft.com/content/5ff6469a-6dd8-11ea-89df-41bea055720b

I think this is unlikely and it seems to be an outlier viewpoint, but it's worth nothing that somebody who knows what they're talking about does actually subscribe to this theory.

 

Interesting, WHO report on China indicates that they couldn't find much asymptonatic patients but maybe that is wrong.  To be honest, we are all guessing here and I find it pretty unlikely that widespread had occurred in US in early February but maybe I am wrong. 

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1 minute ago, tangfoot said:

The graph you site shows active cases from 42,681 on 3/21 to 50,418 on 3/23.  The active cases have increased by almost 8,000.

Perhaps what you are trying to say is that the rate of increase in new cases is decreasing, which isn't nearly the same thing.  But it is also very important (i.e., the curve may indeed be flattening)

Apologies if this appears to be just semantics, but it's critical to understand the difference.

no, you are technically correct (which is the best kind of correct).  I was clumsy with my wording.  I should have said "new cases have decreased since that date".  I will adjust, and thanks for keeping me straight.

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Just now, Redwes25 said:

Interesting, WHO report on China indicates that they couldn't find much asymptonatic patients but maybe that is wrong.  To be honest, we are all guessing here and I find it pretty unlikely that widespread had occurred in US in early February but maybe I am wrong. 

I think the difference might be that one test involves testing for the virus itself and the other involves testing for antibodies?  In other words, lots of people test "negative" for COVID-19 but they would show antibodies from a previous, undetected and unnoticed infection?  

They mentioned in the article that it would be easy to test this hypothesis and that it could be done in a matter of days, not weeks.

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51 minutes ago, CurlyNight said:

21 day national shut down in India. 

India, which has been downplaying the COVID19 epidemic threat for weeks, is now on national lockdown. Imagine trying to enforce it.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/03/24/coronavirus-latest-news/#click=https://t.co/1B4IRxjkcG

This is going to be... interesting. Enormous population and densely packed with a hideous health care system and a larger numbers living in relative squalor. Yikes. 

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4 minutes ago, IvanKaramazov said:

I think the difference might be that one test involves testing for the virus itself and the other involves testing for antibodies?  In other words, lots of people test "negative" for COVID-19 but they would show antibodies from a previous, undetected and unnoticed infection?  

They mentioned in the article that it would be easy to test this hypothesis and that it could be done in a matter of days, not weeks.

I understand the different nature of testing.  Just in China during peak they were testing and tracing so many people (any one who tested posted had all contacts traced then those contacts were tested) that they didn't find a whole lot of folks who tested positive and also didn't show symptoms.  

Agree antibody test will be needed/useful especially reopening up society.  People who have antibodies should be in much better shape to fully get back to work force.  

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1 hour ago, moleculo said:

it sounds way different north of the state line than it does here.  SC doesn't feel shut down hardly at all.

Self imposed in the Mill :thumbup: Governor issued a no more than 3 person group thing but that was mainly to give cops opportunity to bust up beach parties I think. Much like NC, we should have shut down a while ago. Our company is pretty cool about the WFH thing so I told my boss yesterday was the last day in the office for me for a while.

Mecklenburg County just issued a stay at home order until April 15th. 

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I found this to be an incredibly helpful overview of the path forward with respect to how we can use testing to control the outbreak. (Talking Points Memo is a liberal blog, but this post itself is not at all political).

Quote

The order of events will have to be something like this. Everybody but essential personnel goes into full lockdown because during explosive spread and without effective testing at scale that is the only way to reduce the spread. Simultaneously, support hospitals and health care workers caring for the wave of critically ill patients flooding into hospitals. Hopefully the first effort (radical social distancing) will eventually end the immediate crisis in the second (the wave of critically ill people pouring into hospitals).

From there broader testing will become critical because only with testing at scale and aggressive contact tracing and quarantines will we be able to get to a new normal that will be sustainable into next year when hopefully you have medical interventions which can actually end the crisis. Only surveillance testing will allow us to fine tune the economy-crushing blunt instrument of radical lockdown. Testing here means not only testing for infection, as we’re already doing, but serological testing which tells you who has already been infected and (most likely) is now immune. Researchers are still trying to confirm how immune you are and for how long. But people who are immune will obviously be key players in providing assistance in a semi-social distanced world. All of this is necessary to produce the data to monitor effectively.

We can’t stay in total lockdown for 18 months. But when we can ease up somewhat, how we can ease up and to guard against a second outbreak when we’re semi-eased up – all of that will come down to testing for surveillance, monitoring, contact tracing and quarantines.

 

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5 minutes ago, zftcg said:

I found this to be an incredibly helpful overview of the path forward with respect to how we can use testing to control the outbreak. (Talking Points Memo is a liberal blog, but this post itself is not at all political).

The order of events will have to be something like this. Everybody but essential personnel goes into full lockdown because during explosive spread and without effective testing at scale that is the only way to reduce the spread. Simultaneously, support hospitals and health care workers caring for the wave of critically ill patients flooding into hospitals. Hopefully the first effort (radical social distancing) will eventually end the immediate crisis in the second (the wave of critically ill people pouring into hospitals).

From there broader testing will become critical because only with testing at scale and aggressive contact tracing and quarantines will we be able to get to a new normal that will be sustainable into next year when hopefully you have medical interventions which can actually end the crisis. Only surveillance testing will allow us to fine tune the economy-crushing blunt instrument of radical lockdown. Testing here means not only testing for infection, as we’re already doing, but serological testing which tells you who has already been infected and (most likely) is now immune. Researchers are still trying to confirm how immune you are and for how long. But people who are immune will obviously be key players in providing assistance in a semi-social distanced world. All of this is necessary to produce the data to monitor effectively.

We can’t stay in total lockdown for 18 months. But when we can ease up somewhat, how we can ease up and to guard against a second outbreak when we’re semi-eased up – all of that will come down to testing for surveillance, monitoring, contact tracing and quarantines.

Apparently "when we can ease up somewhat" is now Easter. Good gosh we are in big trouble.

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2 minutes ago, Grace Under Pressure said:

Apparently "when we can ease up somewhat" is now Easter. Good gosh we are in big trouble.

I just got off the phone with my 70-something dad, who similarly argued that we need to loosen everything up in a couple of weeks tops.  We're hosed.

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Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, Grace Under Pressure said:

Apparently "when we can ease up somewhat" is now Easter. Good gosh we are in big trouble.

I mean to be fair, if we can't ease up in 2-3 weeks the economy IS going to crater in a way that will horrify everyone and make 2008 look like a bull market.  The time to stop this is right now.  But at some point very soon, the economy does actually have to start again.

Edited by shader

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Certainly an interesting day when it comes to leadership. On the national level, two more weeks and then we will be raring to go again (allegedly). Locally, we were notified we are converting a high school to a hospital and messages from the governor and mayors that things will be ramping up and will peak in two to three weeks. They even explained they have been tracking what has been going on and the number of cases with the medical community. They claim with a high degree of certainty that the surge is coming. Locally, they don’t want people out and they are only tightening and extending restrictions. Clearly those two pictures are not the same. 

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1 hour ago, moleculo said:

it sounds way different north of the state line than it does here.  SC doesn't feel shut down hardly at all.

Just stay safe. I went through a real rough period right at the beginning of 2018. I actually was so stressed my hair was falling out a bit. Freaked me out and kind of made me realize I was stressing way too much. Had the flu bad, FIL passed, had to drive up and back to Rochester, NY in a few days and my company was sold so had no idea about job. May have been the most stressful period of my life so I know how you feel. It will be nice when this #### is over and hopefully we are all good.

You, John and I need to have a bunch of beers when that happens!

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4 minutes ago, shader said:

I mean to be fair, if we can't ease up in 2-3 weeks the economy IS going to crater in a way that will horrify everyone and make 2008 look like a bull market.  The time to stop this is right now.  But at some point very soon, the economy does actually have to start again.

Agree. But if we went into a total shutdown now, we wouldn’t even peak until Easter.

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Michigan cases seem to be ramping up now

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Tennessee seeing a bit of a slowdown in growth.  Also far more negative tests than positive.  I'm hopeful that the loose quarantine measures will stop this dead in it's tracks here.

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Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, fruity pebbles said:

Agree. But if we went into a total shutdown now, we wouldn’t even peak until Easter.

The assumption/hope is that the things we've been doing over the past week or two are having an impact.  I'd hope that they are.  Certainly they aren't going to stop the virus from spreading, but should lessen the impact.  And in states where cases are low and there are no big gatherings (where super spreaders can cause harm), perhaps the lack of travel will see this virus completely eliminated (or down to a handfull) in 2-3 weeks.  (in those states/areas/towns)

 

Edited by shader

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Someone could decide it's time to loosen up in a couple of weeks, but what would that mean?  Restaurants and shops could open, but would many people go?  We could reopen schools, but what happens when/if a positive result shows up somewhere?   (My university is processing dorm refunds, i.e., we're not going to open back up this spring.)  Airlines could offer flights, but will people jump at the chance to travel?  Even churches could resume services, but what if a significant number of members say "not yet?"  I don't think it makes any sense to open up until the national mood is ready for it. It feels like this would be - will be - a serious game of 'chicken.'

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Just now, tri-man 47 said:

Someone could decide it's time to loosen up in a couple of weeks, but what would that mean?  Restaurants and shops could open, but would many people go?  We could reopen schools, but what happens when/if a positive result shows up somewhere?   (My university is processing dorm refunds, i.e., we're not going to open back up this spring.)  Airlines could offer flights, but will people jump at the chance to travel?  Even churches could resume services, but what if a significant number of members say "not yet?"  I don't think it makes any sense to open up until the national mood is ready for it. It feels like this would be - will be - a serious game of 'chicken.'

You better hope so.  If the virus is eliminated in certain areas, you're going to want people to get back to normal real quick.

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12 minutes ago, shader said:

I mean to be fair, if we can't ease up in 2-3 weeks the economy IS going to crater in a way that will horrify everyone and make 2008 look like a bull market.  The time to stop this is right now.  But at some point very soon, the economy does actually have to start again.

It's a fine line to be sure but we haven't even addressed the underlying need of social distancing to curb this spread. Not sure how we can optimistically say we're open for business again by Easter. We'll just be hitting our stride with case load by then at the rate we are going.

I thought the stimulus package was being put in place to get us over the hump but we can't even get that through without filling it full of pork so everyone gets their share. It's disgusting to see our politicians at times like this.

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50 minutes ago, Courtjester said:

So other than going to the store and standing in line with the masses (which I can't do), has anyone had any success ordering TP on-line. Everything on Amazon looks to be coming from China sometime in May and the local grocery stores won't let you add it to your order and pick it up. 

I was able to place an order a while back and it's due Thursday. Coming from Pennsylvania to Arizona.

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2 minutes ago, tri-man 47 said:

Someone could decide it's time to loosen up in a couple of weeks, but what would that mean?  Restaurants and shops could open, but would many people go?  We could reopen schools, but what happens when/if a positive result shows up somewhere?   (My university is processing dorm refunds, i.e., we're not going to open back up this spring.)  Airlines could offer flights, but will people jump at the chance to travel?  Even churches could resume services, but what if a significant number of members say "not yet?"  I don't think it makes any sense to open up until the national mood is ready for it. It feels like this would be - will be - a serious game of 'chicken.'

Yep. Even if everything opened up tomorrow, discretionary spending just came to a screeching halt. It would be like opening everything back up in a hurricane before the eye has even passed by. Nature is in control of the economy right now. Discretionary spending isn't going to begin again until nature is done. 

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24 minutes ago, Grace Under Pressure said:

Apparently "when we can ease up somewhat" is now Easter. Good gosh we are in big trouble.

Every single person I know feels this way including my 70+ year old father. I think people are starting to realise they'd rather live with this and the consequences that come with it than completely obliterate their retirement savings or permanently lose their employment. And i tell you we're only a few weeks away from the latter. 

 

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Trump is acting irresponsible

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Back at it...

Starting with this article from South Korea dating back to February...

Physicians work out treatment guidelines for coronavirus

Quote

Korean physicians treating the patients infected with the new coronavirus (COVID-19) have established the treatment guidelines for the unpreceded coronavirus.

 

Quote

 

For the antiviral treatment, the doctors recommended lopinavir 400mg/ritonavir 100mg (Kaletra two tablets, twice a day) or chloroquine 500mg orally per day.

As chloroquine is not available in Korea, doctors could consider hydroxychloroquine 400mg orally per day, they said. There is no evidence that using lopinavir/ritonavir with chloroquine is more effective than monotherapies, they added.

 

Just got back, so I'll continue to try and locate more direct links with full transcript of the studies like this one rather than summaries.

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13 minutes ago, Anarchy99 said:

Certainly an interesting day when it comes to leadership. On the national level, two more weeks and then we will be raring to go again (allegedly). Locally, we were notified we are converting a high school to a hospital and messages from the governor and mayors that things will be ramping up and will peak in two to three weeks. They even explained they have been tracking what has been going on and the number of cases with the medical community. They claim with a high degree of certainty that the surge is coming. Locally, they don’t want people out and they are only tightening and extending restrictions. Clearly those two pictures are not the same. 

I feel the same way and it’s amazing when the governor and president hold back to back press conferences telling us exact opposite messages. 

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Just now, beer 30 said:

It's a fine line to be sure but we haven't even addressed the underlying need of social distancing to curb this spread. Not sure how we can optimistically say we're open for business again by Easter. We'll just be hitting our stride with case load by then at the rate we are going.

I thought the stimulus package was being put in place to get us over the hump but we can't even get that through without filling it full of pork so everyone gets their share. It's disgusting to see our politicians at times like this.

I don't think this is accurate.  Travel is significantly reduced, there are no large events, churches (for the most part) are doing virtual services, there are no sporting events, many businesses are working from home, people aren't going to the movies, malls are empty, etc.

Many things have happened.  Yeah, EVERYONE isn't doing this, but I think it's a mistake to think that steps aren't being taken to curb this spread.

US numbers are absolutely exploding, but that's because of testing.  It's almost a certainty that the actual virus isn't doubling at nearly the same rate this week as it was 3 weeks ago.

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3 minutes ago, cap'n grunge said:

I was able to place an order a while back and it's due Thursday. Coming from Pennsylvania to Arizona.

Stop buying all our tp!

😤

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3 minutes ago, shader said:

You better hope so.  If the virus is eliminated in certain areas, you're going to want people to get back to normal real quick.

You may want people to get back to normal, but what will be the new normal?  Do I really need that overpriced meal out?  Do I really need that ballgame with 40k other filthy people?  Do I need that cruise, that trip to Italy, anything?  Is normal now that the entire tourism industry is gutted, both here and abroad?  That we lose 70% of restaurants?  That we just decide to become an online society? 

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How do you guys feel about colleges moving grades to pass/fail?

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