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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread

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15 minutes ago, moleculo said:

There's value in slowing the spread. If everyone got sick all at once, the hospitals would be quickly overrun.  If you can slow the spread via quarantines or other good practices, maybe the health care facilities have a chance at keeping up, at least until more can be built or a treatment is developed.

This

The faster this swamps hospitals the higher the "artificial" death rate.   

We need to hold on, hope it fades over the summer and can keep a lid on hot spots going into fall.  

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1 hour ago, Mr. Ham said:

I think we’ll have a vaccine in about a year. I really don’t want my family to get it prior to then. 

You think quarantines will stop this?  
 

It seems like trying to stop water flowing through a huge sieve by plugging fingers in various spots.  Once containment is broken, and at this point there’s good reason to believe we lots the handle on the spread of this, it seems silly to think we can stop it.  We may be able to slow it a bit, but the level of disruption to our lives required to slow this significantly will be huge and the benefit likely not too big.

im hearing at least two years optimistically to develop a vaccine.  
 

with what has happened in two months in terms of spread, I’d find it hard to believe this genie goes back in the box.  Best thing to assume is that you and your family will catch it within the next 2 years.

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3 minutes ago, culdeus said:

This

The faster this swamps hospitals the higher the "artificial" death rate.   

We need to hold on, hope it fades over the summer and can keep a lid on hot spots going into fall.  

The cost to holding on though could be astronomically high. Quarantines across the country, and world, will be hugely disruptive to business.  
 

implement quarantines to an effective level, and you destroy economies.  Half-### them, by maybe not shutting down huge cities, and there’s really no point in having them.

 

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1 minute ago, adonis said:

The cost to holding on though could be astronomically high. Quarantines across the country, and world, will be hugely disruptive to business.  
 

implement quarantines to an effective level, and you destroy economies.  Half-### them, by maybe not shutting down huge cities, and there’s really no point in having them.

 

At some point you tell the old people to stay inside.  

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I don't have the best immune system and I'm not too worried.....yet

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3 minutes ago, culdeus said:

At some point you tell the old people to stay inside.  

For two years?

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2 minutes ago, adonis said:

For two years?

There will need to be risk levels.  People that are compromised should be moved out of places like Denver.  Etc.  

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10 minutes ago, adonis said:

The cost to holding on though could be astronomically high. Quarantines across the country, and world, will be hugely disruptive to business.  
 

implement quarantines to an effective level, and you destroy economies.  Half-### them, by maybe not shutting down huge cities, and there’s really no point in having them.

 

While it reduces the burden on the local health facilities, one disadvantage of home quarantines is higher chance of multiple family members getting infected.  There are stories coming out of China where entire families (adults) got decimated.

Edited by bradyfan

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23 minutes ago, adonis said:

You think quarantines will stop this?  
 

It seems like trying to stop water flowing through a huge sieve by plugging fingers in various spots.  Once containment is broken, and at this point there’s good reason to believe we lots the handle on the spread of this, it seems silly to think we can stop it.  We may be able to slow it a bit, but the level of disruption to our lives required to slow this significantly will be huge and the benefit likely not too big.

im hearing at least two years optimistically to develop a vaccine.  
 

with what has happened in two months in terms of spread, I’d find it hard to believe this genie goes back in the box.  Best thing to assume is that you and your family will catch it within the next 2 years.

I suspect it’s going to steadily progress through mid March and may get out of hand at some point in late March through April. This is the period when quarantines may be prudent, as may be avoiding public as much as possible. May and June will hopefully see a seasonal retraction. Hoping then Summer is a reprieve. This is as far out as I’m thinking, since 7-8 months from now there will presumably be better treatments, planning and clarity. For now, I want to avoid getting it between now and May.

After seeing cases stall in Singapore and no evidence of advancement in hot climates, I’m hoping a Texas summer will prove too brutal for it. To what degree I can avoid work travel is another matter,

Edited by Mr. Ham

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Interesting that some countries include Australia on their list of countries for travel restrictions.

Do they know something we don’t?

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4 minutes ago, bradyfan said:

Interesting that some countries include Australia on their list of countries for travel restrictions.

Do they know something we don’t?

Isn’t it hot down there at this time of year?

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On 2/22/2020 at 2:32 AM, Terminalxylem said:

There are many communicable diseases within a hospital at any given moment. Some of them are even deadly. Should a hospital advertise all of those too? 
 

What impact will notifying prospective patients of coronavirus preparation have on throughput at other facilities? While it may not be applicable to all locations, most major cities already have overflowing ERs during the winter. We don’t need to overwhelm smaller hospitals because of unjustified fear of COVID-19 exposure.

If you remain concerned, I recommend you go to non-academic, rural medical centers. Good luck getting the same standard of care you’d receive going to a bigger hospital, even considering the inconsequential risk you’d add of contracting coronavirus from one of their patients or staff.

I'll just, you know, not go to the one place treating the now six confirmed patients since they released the location due to public and city official insistence. And given the abundance of hospitals in SA, I think I'll just go to one of the others instead of the secondary animal hospital that seems to be the only other choice available in your home town.

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21 hours ago, bradyfan said:

China CDC Situation Report on Feb-23
31 Provinces & XPCC
  Suspected: 3434 (+620)
  Confirmed: 77150 (+409)
  Severe: 9915 (-1053)
  Dead: 2592 (+150)
  Recovered: 24734 (+1846)
Hong Kong - Confirmed: 74 (Dead: 2, Recovered: 12)
Macau - Confirmed: 10 (Recovered: 6)
Taiwan - Confirmed: 28 (Dead: 1, Recovered: 5)

China CDC Situation Report on Feb-24 
31 Provinces & XPCC
  Suspected: 2824 (+530)
  Confirmed: 77658 (+508)
  Severe: 9126 (-789)
  Dead: 2663 (+71)
  Recovered: 27323 (+2589
Hong Kong - Confirmed: 81 (Dead: 2, Recovered: 19)
Macau - Confirmed: 10 (Recovered: 6)
Taiwan - Confirmed: 30 (Dead: 1, Recovered: 5)

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5 minutes ago, NREC34 said:

36 cases in Kansas?

not sure if this is real or fake

Abandoned military base -- they're passengers from the Diamond Princess cruise ship.

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On 2/21/2020 at 7:30 PM, bradyfan said:

US CDC Situation Report - Feb-21 Update 
Confirmed Cases in the US 
  Travel-related: 12 
  Person-to-person spread: 2 
  Total confirmed cases: 14 
  Total tested: 414 
Persons Repatriated to the US and Tested by CDC 
  Wuhan, China - Positive: 3 
  Diamond Princess cruise ship - Positive: 18

US CDC Situation Report - Feb-24 Update
Confirmed Cases in the US 
  Travel-related: 12
  Person-to-person spread: 2
  Total confirmed cases: 14
  Total tested: 426
Persons Repatriated to the US and Tested by CDC
  Wuhan, China - Positive: 3
  Diamond Princess cruise ship - Positive: 36

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That ####### cruise ship.  Seriously.

 

Can you rename a cruise ship?  Because nobody is ever going on that ghost ship ever again.

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4 minutes ago, culdeus said:

That ####### cruise ship.  Seriously.

 

Can you rename a cruise ship?  Because nobody is ever going on that ghost ship ever again.

It will be back in business some time in April.

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On 2/23/2020 at 12:13 PM, bradyfan said:

Italy has now passed Japan on Worldometer.

  1. China: 76,940 (+652) confirmed, 2444 (+99) deaths
  2. Diamond Princess: 691 (+57) confirmed, 3 (+1) deaths
  3. South Korea: 602 (+166) confirmed, 6 (+4) deaths
  4. Italy: 157 (+78) confirmed, 3 (+1) deaths
  5. Japan: 146 (+12) confirmed, 1 death
  6. Singapore: 89 confirmed
  7. Hong Kong: 74 (+4) confirmed, 2 deaths
  8. Iran: 43 (+14) confirmed, 8 (+2) deaths
  9. Thailand: 35 confirmed
  10. U.S.: 35 confirmed

Worldometer: South Korea surpassed Diamond Princess and US moved up a spot (more Diamond Princess repatriates tested positive). 

  1. China: 77,659 confirmed, 2,663 deaths
  2. South Korea: 893 confirmed, 8 deaths
  3. Diamond Princess: 691 confirmed, 3 deaths
  4. Italy: 229 confirmed, 7 deaths
  5. Japan: 159 confirmed, 1 death
  6. Singapore: 90 confirmed
  7. Hong Kong: 81 confirmed, 2 deaths
  8. Iran: 61 confirmed, 12 deaths
  9. USA: 53 confirmed
  10. Thailand: 35 confirmed

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I think it’s a good time to get ahead of the curve and stock up on staples and supplies 

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Went to my local grocery store tonight, saw 5 people with masks on.  Two were cashiers. 

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Amazon better be prepared to keep up with Prime and Fresh deliveries because I paid good money for my subscription!

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1 hour ago, DallasDMac said:

I'll just, you know, not go to the one place treating the now six confirmed patients since they released the location due to public and city official insistence. And given the abundance of hospitals in SA, I think I'll just go to one of the others instead of the secondary animal hospital that seems to be the only other choice available in your home town.

While your sarcasm is greatly appreciated, I’ll continue to respect patient confidentiality, not submit to hysteria and trust hospital employees to do their jobs. 

And *SPOILER ALERT*, there will be a lot more than six cases before this is all said and done, so you best beat the rush and get your ailments taken care of ASAP.

ETA I work at the largest hospital in town, so I won’t be running away from COVID patients.

 

Edited by Terminalxylem
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1 hour ago, culdeus said:

That ####### cruise ship.  Seriously.

 

Can you rename a cruise ship?  Because nobody is ever going on that ghost ship ever again.

Just get rid of all cruises. It was a nice experiment. 

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Non-China Reported Cases

2/7 - 277

2/12 - 490

2/17 - 893 reported cases - (454 on Diamond Princess) - 135 recovered - 36 serious/critical - 5 dead 

2/18 - 1,014 reported cases (542 on Diamond Princess) - 152 recovered - 39 serious/critical - 5 dead

2/19 - 1,149 reported cases (621 on Diamond Princess) - 169 recovered - 45 serious/critical - 10 dead

2/20 - 1,259 reported cases (634 on Diamond Princess) - 191 recovered - 45 serious/critical - 11 dead

2/21 - 1,525 reported cases (634 on Diamond Princess) - 209 recovered - 52 serious/critical - 15 dead

2/22 - 1,834 reported cases (634 on Diamond Princess) - 210 recovered - 66 serious/critical - 19 dead

2/23 - 2,213 reported cases (691 Diamond Princess cases) - 227 recovered - 82 serious/critical - 27 dead

2/24 - 2,491 reported cases - 38 dead 

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1 hour ago, James Daulton said:

Why the panic over this?  It’s basically the flu right?  

Best guess: 10-20x more deadly and globally into the low millions die annually of flu.

Plus, imagine if there were nothing we know as flu, and suddenly we are faced with the prospect of it being a new seasonal disease we won’t have permanent immunity for, and which we can all expect to get regularly. It now appears that for years to come, our pharmacies will have cold, flu, and coronavirus sections.

Flu costs many billions in healthcare costs and lost productivity. 

And there’s still much we don’t know, like if unlike the flu where if you or your kids start to cough you can ride it out with liquids and a humidifier, here 15% of cases or more may require hospitalization and respiratory distress before beating it.

And we also don’t know if patients can get reinfected shortly after having it, and while they are already weakened, and whether it’s far more viral than flu — which it appears it is.

Will this virus have a human and financial coat equal to, double, or some multiple of the costs of flu? Certainly looks as though at least until the Healthcare Industry gets its arm around how to treat it over some number of years, the answer is an exponent of the flu.

So basically not exactly the flu, and would have been great to eradicate it, but that now appears unlikely.

_
 

Edit: Or see next post for a more succinct answer.

 

Edited by Mr. Ham
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1 hour ago, James Daulton said:

Why the panic over this?  It’s basically the flu right?  

No

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1 hour ago, James Daulton said:

Why the panic over this?  It’s basically the flu right?  

If the flu had  a 10x higher death rate and a higher infection rate.

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Just now, -fish- said:

If the flu had  a 10x higher death rate and a higher infection rate.

and there’s no vaccine, no tamiflu, no built in immunities, limited knowledge of what this can do, it lasts longer, governments are quarantining people, creating curfews, cancelling public events, damaging their own economies... 

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We're all going to die

Quote

https://us.yahoo.com/news/harvard-scientist-predicts-coronavirus-infect-195800282.html

Harvard University epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch is predicting the coronavirus "will ultimately not be containable" and, within a year, will infect somewhere between 40 and 70 percent of humanity, The Atlantic reports. But don't be too alarmed. Many of those people, Lipsitch clarifies, won't have severe illnesses or even show symptoms at all, which is already the case for many people who have tested positive for the virus.

That's precisely why he doesn't think the virus can be stopped. Viruses like SARS, MERS, and the avian flu were eventually contained in part because they were more intense and had a higher fatality rate. In other words, if you were infected by the virus that caused SARS, chances were you weren't out and about. But because the current coronavirus, known as COVID-19, can be asymptomatic, or at least very mild, there's a better chance people will likely go about their day as normal. The down side, though, is that it becomes harder to trace and prevent. In that sense it's similar to the flu, which can also be deadly, but often passes without the infected person seeking medical care.

The Atlantic reports Lipsitch is definitely not alone in his prediction. There's an emerging consensus that the outbreak will eventually morph into a new seasonal disease, which, per The Atlantic, could one day turn "cold and flu season" into "cold and flu and COVID-19 season." 

 

Edited by Don Hutson

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2 hours ago, NREC34 said:

36 cases in Kansas?

not sure if this is real or fake 

Princess diamond patients quarantined

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8 minutes ago, [icon] said:
3 hours ago, NREC34 said:

36 cases in Kansas?

not sure if this is real or fake 

Princess diamond patients quarantined

See US CDC Feb-24 update in post above.

Diamond Princess cruise ship - Positive: 36

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19 minutes ago, shader said:

and there’s no vaccine, no tamiflu, no built in immunities, limited knowledge of what this can do, it lasts longer, governments are quarantining people, creating curfews, cancelling public events, damaging their own economies... 

Actual mortality rate will somewhat depend if adequate and timely treatment is given to infected people who get seriously ill.  The odds are better if they do not wait too long before seeking treatment (days matter) and if they get access to tests and hospital care.

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5 hours ago, urbanhack said:

what kind of supplements should we be taking to boost our immunity?  echinacea? 

None have proven efficacious.

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For the science types, here's the Washington Post's take on how the virus kills and then a description from an advisor to Cytodyn as to why he thinks their drug will be an effective treatment:

Quote

 

Washington Post

“Experts hypothesize that the difference between a lethal infection and one that feels like a bad cold probably hinges on the interaction between the virus and a person’s immune system.”

“What you get is the initial damage and rush of inflammatory cells, but the damage is so extensive that the body’s immune response is completely overwhelmed — which causes even more immune response, more immune cells and more damage,” 

Bruce Patterson:

“Leronlimab enhances the innate and cellular immune response by inhibiting Treg cells which turn off the immune system. In addition, CCL5-CCR5 is one of the pathways that controls the massive migration of immune cells to sites of inflammation. Last, leronlimab reprograms macrophages. Taken together all of these effects don’t target the virus but it hopefully can mitigate the severe damage caused by the resulting cytokine storm.”

 

 

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