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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread

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18 minutes ago, Ben Hur said:

I believe it should be relevant, that my notebook states Matsuki primarily serves what I call "near west texas" the area 2hrs west of the D/FW area.

Ah. I had thought he was in San Antonio proper, or very close (<60 minutes drive).

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30 minutes ago, gianmarco said:

Relatively close contact with recirculated air in a confined space for an extended period of time in an area that is difficult to fully clean?  In addition to processes and procedures in the airport related to waiting/security/boarding/etc.? 

No, I'll certainly be taking my chances at Wal-Mart with good hygiene. 

"Recirculated air" is like the chemtrails of air travel. 

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The whole Matsuki pile on is very bizarre to me. My wife is a nurse and it seems like different facilities are going to see different things. 

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6 minutes ago, Politician Spock said:

Cases of "death", "critical" and "recovered" are sub classifications of "total cases".

If total cases aren't accurate, then neither are the subclassifications of total cases. 

Deaths would receive a far deal greater scrutiny. Your flow through falls apart there. 

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17 minutes ago, fatguyinalittlecoat said:
28 minutes ago, Grace Under Pressure said:

One aspect upon reading the responses is that this seems to be regionally driven in terms of sentiment. People in NY are showing a high degree of concern, fear and the numbers in NY are staggering right now. 

On the other hand, AZ for example seems to have a much, much lower number total. If they do the right thing with extreme social distancing for 8-12 weeks, testing, isolating positive cases and tracing contacts for further isolation they could literally beat this thing (have a South Korea type outcome).

This is a regional issue in some ways. The US is not a region. The states are a region each. So a poster from AZ may be having a way different experience than a poster from NY. 

True, but as long as people continue to travel, every region will get hit.

True.

But Grace's point is interesting and relevant. Density is this thing's friend. Those of us in dense population centers are certainly going to be more concerned about social distancing/etc. than those in far less dense areas. And it should be easier to contain if people have built-in room to keep apart.

I'd hope those people in rural/less dense areas still follow the same protocols given how it spreads with contact to affected surfaces. One bar, one market, or any other place where those people do congregate will spread it if people aren't careful.

And I'd certainly hope local health care aren't discounting this in any way. 

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11 minutes ago, Terminalxylem said:

Yeah, I thought about that. But even if you practice in Antarctica, most HCW have friends and colleagues around the globe. Between interpersonal communications, social media, professional journals and the news, his descriptions of the local docs' reactions seem pretty far fetched.

That's actually a good point. I wonder if matuski's doctor friends think poorly of any healthcare friends in NYC, Seattle, California, etc. that may be expressing concern. I mean, matuski's friends may not be worried personally about their "bubble" ... but do they think other doctors everywhere else in the U.S. and the world are also exaggerating their personal risks?

Grace Under Pressure also made a good point up above about local sentiment, which kind of dances around the idea that personal politics influences opinion. Matuski's doctor friends are almost certainly high-earning Texans (and maybe semi-rural Texans at that?). High-earning Texans would presumptively identify as "conservative" and thus filter information about the pandemic through that lens. Not making a value judgment.

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Just now, El Floppo said:

You still in town?

:unsure:

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1 minute ago, BobbyLayne said:

:unsure:

I'll take that as a yes.

Us too.

Been weighing the pros and cons of staying vs leaving. Lots of cons both ways. 

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1 minute ago, El Floppo said:
25 minutes ago, fatguyinalittlecoat said:

True, but as long as people continue to travel, every region will get hit.

True.

But Grace's point is interesting and relevant. Density is this thing's friend. Those of us in dense population centers are certainly going to be more concerned about social distancing/etc. than those in far less dense areas. And it should be easier to contain if people have built-in room to keep apart.

I'd hope those people in rural/less dense areas still follow the same protocols given how it spreads with contact to affected surfaces. One bar, one market, or any other place where those people do congregate will spread it if people aren't careful.

And I'd certainly hope local health care aren't discounting this in any way. 

Agreed.  My point was just that the United States isn't like China where they locked down the whole province and didn't let people come and go. There are people moving from the dense cities to the less-dense areas all the time.  There was an article in the NY Times a couple days ago about how all the rich people from Manhattan have moved out to their summer homes in the Hamptons to be in a less densely packed area.  And all the Hamptons locals are pissed off because the Manhattanites are bringing the virus with them and the Hamptons don't have the social services or hospital beds to handle the inevitable spread of the virus there.  I feel like a similar phenomenon is going to happen everywhere.  

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10 minutes ago, Slapdash said:

I'm not sure where the inclination to downplay this is coming from.

I understood this mindset circa early- to mid-February -- I felt the same way before Italy broke. But now that it's present in numbers all over Europe and the United States? Now that it's clear that an advanced healthcare system is not COVID's kryptonite?

I would hope that Matuski's doctor friends, from the safety of their no-case clinics, aren't talking schmidt about "panicking doctors" in NYC or anything like that.

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8 minutes ago, parasaurolophus said:

Deaths would receive a far deal greater scrutiny. Your flow through falls apart there. 

What are you talking about? Are they scrutinizing whether a case died or not?

If you are suggesting that non-covid-19 cases that dies are highly scrutinized to become a new confirmed case, you will need to provide evidence of that. I haven't seen any. 

 

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Belgium is not looking good.

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11 minutes ago, NorvilleBarnes said:

The whole Matsuki pile on is very bizarre to me. My wife is a nurse and it seems like different facilities are going to see different things. 

Briefly: it's because his doctor friends come off as denialists, which I highly doubt was matuski's intention.

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Posted (edited)

Cuomo just said a non-covid patient is on a ventilator for 3-4 days. A Covid patient is 11-21 days. That's horrific. 🙁

Edited by cap'n grunge
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Posted (edited)

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3561560

Quote

Abstract

What are the economic consequences of an influenza pandemic? And given the pandemic, what are the economic costs and benefits of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI)? Using geographic variation in mortality during the 1918 Flu Pandemic in the U.S., we find that more exposed areas experience a sharp and persistent decline in economic activity. The estimates imply that the pandemic reduced manufacturing output by 18%. The downturn is driven by both supply and demand-side channels. Further, building on findings from the epidemiology literature establishing that NPIs decrease influenza mortality, we use variation in the timing and intensity of NPIs across U.S. cities to study their economic effects. We find that cities that intervened earlier and more aggressively do not perform worse and, if anything, grow faster after the pandemic is over. Our findings thus indicate that NPIs not only lower mortality; they also mitigate the adverse economic consequences of a pandemic.

 

Edited by Peyton Marino
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6 minutes ago, joffer said:

Belgium is not looking good.

Things getting tense over here in The Netherlands as well. The distancing stuff started 2 weeks ago and health care is still managing. Models indicate that we still have 2+ weeks ahead of us before growth factor starts to consistently be at/under 1. 

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14 minutes ago, El Floppo said:

I'll take that as a yes.

Us too.

Been weighing the pros and cons of staying vs leaving. Lots of cons both ways. 

Pro: fly anywhere in CONUS for $17, airports are empty, leaving epicenter

Con: flying to next month’s epicenter

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15 hours ago, flranger said:

# of cases is worthless statistic in the US right now....

Polk County Florida, only about 15 confirmed cases but fyi.  Largest hospital by far in our area.  Lakeland Regional.  I believe over 5000 employees.

Exhibit A:  My own mom spent the last nine days here, fever for about six days and pneumonia.  Released yesterday.  No COVID test.  

Exhibit B:  today from a friend

So a friend went to lakeland regional today and they asked him what his symptoms were; he then told them he had every symptom for COVID. They ran a couple test and told him he had something else. He asked why they wouldn't test him for COVID to make sure he doesn't have that as well and they said they don't have the means to test everyone. He was basically was canceled from the list because of his age. FYI if you decide to go.

Comments include other friends who are in profession, confirming what we already know.  There is not an adequate supply, or even close to an adequate supply of tests.  (unless you are rich or a public figure of course)

I'm convinced the only statistic you can reasonably reliably follow is # of deaths.  Also convinced the mortality rate is well below 1%, which is still terrifying since no one has immunity built in.

ETA:  My mom raved about the excellent care she received.  This is no slight on LRMC.  It's only to speak about the availability of tests.

 

First - hope your mom is ok and recovers fully & quickly.

Second - just talked to a guy who works for me up in MN.  His wife went into the hospital last week with breathing trouble, cough, chest pain.  Pneumonia.   Never got tested for COVID.  They asked to be tested, and the doctor said "unless you are so bad that we have to put you in a ventilator, you aren't getting tested for COVID."

Similar to you, I've heard enough stories like this now that I don't believe a single statistic out there.  I don't really even fully believe deaths, but it's the most reliable stat we have.  What a #### show.

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4 minutes ago, Politician Spock said:

What are you talking about? Are they scrutinizing whether a case died or not?

If you are suggesting that non-covid-19 cases that dies are highly scrutinized to become a new confirmed case, you will need to provide evidence of that. I haven't seen any. 

 

I am suggesting that using that fact that a bunch of asymptomatic or mild cases are going underreported is a silly metric for assuming deaths are underreported. Asking me to prove you wrong is just as silly. 

Of course cases will be severely underreported. There will be mild symptoms. Asymptomatic carriers, etc. There is also priority in testing. 

I have yet to read a report of an asymptomatic death. 

I have read false reports of covid deaths. 

One of them was shared like 3 times in this thread. 

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Just now, parasaurolophus said:

I have yet to read a report of an asymptomatic death.

... death would be a pretty severe symptom :mellow:  But I think I see where you are going.

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41 minutes ago, kodycutter said:

Florida dashboard

2,355 positives (up almost 400 from the 6pm update)

28 deaths

23,723 tested

Throughout this whole outbreak, Broward and Dade have consistently totaled just under half of the state number (616 + 504 = 1120)

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Drew Brees via his Instagram:

Quote

Brittany and I are committing $5,000,000 to the State of Louisiana in 2020. The priority now is helping our communities get through this tough time.

After considerable research and conversations with local organizations, we will be mobilizing our partnerships with Second Harvest Food Bank, Ochsner Health Systems, Walk-Ons, Jimmy Johns, Smalls Sliders and Waitr to prepare and deliver over 10,000 meals per day throughout Louisiana for as long as it takes to children on meal programs, seniors, and families in need. Let’s all do our part, maintain hope, and get through this together.

 

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54 minutes ago, pollardsvision said:

Is Washington doing some things exceptionally well, or is it just still a matter of not enough info?

Only 119 new cases yesterday, and if you'd told me a month ago that'd be around 2500 right now, I wouldn't have believed it.

Seems like a good shot that Florida and a handful of other states pass them in the next 48 hours.

According to the testing data that was posted by @Brony (covidtracking.com), Washington has the 2nd highest total tests in the country.  CA has 48,600 tests marked as results pending, so they may see the biggest bump in the coming days.  Not sure how reliable the pending data is; only 10 states are reporting that stat.

The biggest factor is how/when they're choosing to test, so take the #s FWIW.

rank by total results

state  positive  negative  total results pct pos  test per capita
NY       30,811    72,668        103,479   29.8%            5,295 (per million)
WA        2,580    31,712         34,292    7.5%            4,548
FL        1,977    20,165         22,142    8.9%            1,039
MA        1,833    17,956         19,794    9.3%            2,868
CA        2,588    15,741         18,329   14.1%              463

rank by total results per capita

state  positive  negative  total results pct pos  test per capita
NY       30,811    72,668        103,479   29.8%            5,295
WA        2,580    31,712         34,292    7.5%            4,548
NM          112     7,681          7,793    1.4%            3,717
HI           95     4,357          4,452    2.1%            3,151
MA        1,833    17,956         19,794    9.3%            2,868

 

 

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13 hours ago, SteelerFan03 said:

Mods...if this isn’t the place, then please remove, but my wife and I produced a parody music video to encourage people to stay inside... Just trying to spread some positivity..

https://www.facebook.com/chris.taylor.75685962/videos/10216621895205897/?__tn__=%2CdlCH-R-R&eid=ARAnMpDT-1XmRycZo9el1-E1R_WrjwnGByDZg3o3we7K6lKrwPSZYowj9PeKYuPCetdvVrnd5zWxh0fe&hc_ref=ARQdaOTHluyR6M03Kj7PlzzOiTLeoj94LIY1E1wQjdBcUVcPJQ3hBoPlH2bA3igU4ls

OR

https://youtu.be/3USob_ol5Mg

That’s damn good! Great job!

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Posted (edited)
12 minutes ago, parasaurolophus said:

I am suggesting that using that fact that a bunch of asymptomatic or mild cases are going underreported is a silly metric for assuming deaths are underreported. Asking me to prove you wrong is just as silly. 

Of course cases will be severely underreported. There will be mild symptoms. Asymptomatic carriers, etc. There is also priority in testing. 

I have yet to read a report of an asymptomatic death. 

I have read false reports of covid deaths. 

One of them was shared like 3 times in this thread. 

We are talking about unconfirmed cases. Whether they are asymptomatic or not is irrelevant. 

Edited by Politician Spock

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5 minutes ago, Ben Hur said:

The world's greatest hope is that this virus is far more transmittable than we thought, and many of us have already contracted it asymptomatically.  

This is a very popular idea, though there is zero data to back it up.

What we do know, is that hospitals are being overrun and people are dying in a way that is unbelievably damaging to the healthcare system and to the economy.

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37 minutes ago, Doug B said:

That's actually a good point. I wonder if matuski's doctor friends think poorly of any healthcare friends in NYC, Seattle, California, etc. that may be expressing concern. I mean, matuski's friends may not be worried personally about their "bubble" ... but do they think other doctors everywhere else in the U.S. and the world are also exaggerating their personal risks?

Grace Under Pressure also made a good point up above about local sentiment, which kind of dances around the idea that personal politics influences opinion. Matuski's doctor friends are almost certainly high-earning Texans (and maybe semi-rural Texans at that?). High-earning Texans would presumptively identify as "conservative" and thus filter information about the pandemic through that lens. Not making a value judgment.

Sure. Maybe some combination of geographic/social isolation, political extremism and general contempt for humanity?

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just got off a conference call with my colleagues in Germany.  They are doing WFH and took a 50% furlough (we are only WFH here in the USA), but the German gov't back-fills 50%.  In anticipation of CV, they cleared their hospitals of all non-life threatening patients and postponed all elective surgeries, but now the beds are empty.  They are actually flying in patients in from Italy.

They went through the same TP shortages.  Right now, their major shortage is garden soil...everyone is taking up back-yard gardening.

Frankly, I'm starting to think about maybe it's a good time to see if I can move to Germany.

 

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Just now, moleculo said:

just got off a conference call with my colleagues in Germany.  They are doing WFH and took a 50% furlough (we are only WFH here in the USA), but the German gov't back-fills 50%.  In anticipation of CV, they cleared their hospitals of all non-life threatening patients and postponed all elective surgeries, but now the beds are empty.  They are actually flying in patients in from Italy.

They went through the same TP shortages.  Right now, their major shortage is garden soil...everyone is taking up back-yard gardening.

Frankly, I'm starting to think about maybe it's a good time to see if I can move to Germany.

 

The only thing I can figure with Germany is that they are SO out in front of this thing, that the ICU visits haven't come in yet.

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12 minutes ago, Ben Hur said:

The world's greatest hope is that this virus is far more transmittable than we thought, and many of us have already contracted it asymptomatically.  

Yor posts seem to be far more transmittable than you thought. :mellow:

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9 minutes ago, Politician Spock said:

We are talking about unconfirmed cases. Whether they are asymptomatic or not is irrelevant. 

We were talking about deaths when you jumped in with the ohio lady's cases claim.

 

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3 minutes ago, shader said:

The only thing I can figure with Germany is that they are SO out in front of this thing, that the ICU visits haven't come in yet.

Don't have a link because I just glanced it over but there's reports that the "German" parts of Switzerland are doing better than the "French parts". Maybe more cultural discipline?

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Was just talking to a friend who is convinced this is no big deal and that there are loads of asymptomatic cases everywhere.  Trying to get through to him was impossible, even though he has no stats he can rely on for his beliefs..  Basically, if someone wants to believe something, they will.

The bad thing about this particular belief though, is that it's going to keep people from quarantining.  Fortunately for him, he's cautious by nature.  But others that share his beliefs aren't so cautious.  

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Just now, NorvilleBarnes said:

Don't have a link because I just glanced it over but there's reports that the "German" parts of Switzerland are doing better than the "French parts". Maybe more cultural discipline?

I have no idea on that.  But knowing Germany, it doesn't surprise me that they are testing 500k/week.  It's the type of thing that they are good at, and that's the way to minimize the damage from this virus. 

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1 hour ago, BobbyLayne said:

At Mount Sinai West Hospital (formerly St Lukes-Roosevelt) nurses are wearing black trash bags because they’ve run out of PPE.

State health official (didn’t catch her name) said they spoke to executives at Mt Sinai and widely reported anecdotes aside, they have enough PPE. For now.

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9 minutes ago, moleculo said:

They went through the same TP shortages.  Right now, their major shortage is garden soil...everyone is taking up back-yard gardening

Wife has been trying to buy seeds online and most of the heirloom varieties are long gone.

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8 minutes ago, shader said:

This is a very popular idea, though there is zero data to back it up.

What we do know, is that hospitals are being overrun and people are dying in a way that is unbelievably damaging to the healthcare system and to the economy.

How are people dying “unbelievably damaging” to the economy? What’s “unbelievably damaging” to the economy is it not being open for business. 
 

It’s your sort of hyberbole that feeds the panic mentality. 
 

Count me as one to hope we are open for business no later than Easter. 

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7 minutes ago, DaVinci said:
21 minutes ago, Ben Hur said:

The world's greatest hope is that this virus is far more transmittable than we thought, and many of us have already contracted it asymptomatically.  

Yor posts seem to be far more transmittable than you thought. :mellow:

Once you contract & recover - and many will yet be asymptomatic - then you have the antibodies which will prevent you from contracting again. 

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10 minutes ago, Terminalxylem said:
50 minutes ago, Doug B said:

That's actually a good point. I wonder if matuski's doctor friends think poorly of any healthcare friends in NYC, Seattle, California, etc. that may be expressing concern. I mean, matuski's friends may not be worried personally about their "bubble" ... but do they think other doctors everywhere else in the U.S. and the world are also exaggerating their personal risks?

Grace Under Pressure also made a good point up above about local sentiment, which kind of dances around the idea that personal politics influences opinion. Matuski's doctor friends are almost certainly high-earning Texans (and maybe semi-rural Texans at that?). High-earning Texans would presumptively identify as "conservative" and thus filter information about the pandemic through that lens. Not making a value judgment.

Sure. Maybe some combination of geographic/social isolation, political extremism and general contempt for humanity?

Never attribute to malice ...

It's also possible that there's some outward macho posturing going on among Matuski's colleagues. Kind of like soldiers professing not being scared of live rounds, construction workers never talking about being afraid of walking high steel, etc. Not always a bad thing ... it can help you keep your nerve in dire circumstances.

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So if the tests are being used for severe cases only, the mortality rate should be lower than what is being reported.  Assuming the severe cases are what eventually leads to death.  Is this simple reasoning flawed?  I don't know what to believe anymore.

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On 2/28/2020 at 8:06 AM, Dinsy Ejotuz said:

Kaitlan Collins @kaitlancollins

Mulvaney is saying that the press is now covering Coronavirus because "they think this will bring down the president. That’s what it’s all about."

Turns out Mulvaney himself had been tested for cv19 when he said this.

>>Late last month, Mick Mulvaney, who was still the acting White House chief of staff at the time, told a crowd of conservative activists that the media was exaggerating the threat posed by covid-19 because “they think this will bring down the president, that’s what this is all about. . . . It’s not a death sentence, it’s not the same as the Ebola crisis.”

But unbeknown to attendees at the Conservative Political Action Conference, Mulvaney had already received a coronavirus test, at the recommendation of the White House physician. The test, which has not been reported until now, was followed by a second this month after a niece with whom Mulvaney shares an apartment was around members of a Brazilian delegation who later tested positive for the virus.<<

- And then he quit.

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18 minutes ago, kutta said:

That’s damn good! Great job!

Yeah that was great. :lol:

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3 minutes ago, T J said:

How are people dying “unbelievably damaging” to the economy? What’s “unbelievably damaging” to the economy is it not being open for business. 

I don't expect it to convince you, but at least give Peyton Marino's post at the top of this page some consideration. There is useful U.S. pandemic data to reference.

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2 hours ago, shader said:

This blows me away.  Look at all the flights in the air RIGHT NOW.  I assume these aren't full, but usually airlines won't fly if they don't have a certain number of passengers, right?

 

https://flightaware.com/live/

Man, it's really hard to believe that there are that many planes flying right now.  200K flew yesterday?  That map looks like several thousand planes across the country.  Must be like single digits per plane, on average.  Hard to believe the airlines would continue without consolidating flights or whatever.

I do know this, from personal experience recently.  I booked a flight from LAX to MSP, for five people, in February.  Trip dates were April 3-9.  About three weeks ago, I got an email that said our return flight to LAX had been changed.  Instead of arriving at 6 PM, our arrival time had been updated to 11 PM.  Slightly annoyed, I called Sun Country airlines, and asked what the deal was.  They danced around the question of whether our original flight was still scheduled, stating it was no longer available.  They also stated something to the effect of doing what is best for their customers, given the growing concern for the corona virus, etc.  This was when it was just starting to be on everyone's radar, but no significant amount of cases in the US, etc.   I was offered a full refund which, at the time, wasn't really an option I wanted to take.  I told them I would wait and see what happens, but just wanted to make sure that we were still booked to be sitting in one row, like I had originally paid for.  They made sure that was the case, and that was that.  

Fast forward to a few days ago.  I called to cancel the flight, and basically take them up on the full refund option.  The call center worker said that the main office is closed, just to handle the processing of refunds, while the call center is handling cancellations.  I asked what the difference was, and he said that a cancellation gives you a voucher/credit for the dollar amount spent, to be used within one year of the booking date.  I said that, while I MIGHT use a voucher within the next 10.5 months, I would prefer to just get the full refund that they had offered when they essentially changed my flight.  He said he could only do the voucher, but I could request the refund online by filing a complaint.  Processing time is 2-3 weeks.  So, I have my voucher number (same as original reservation number), and am filling out the request for a refund online.  There are apparently 25,000 cancellations just with that airline this week, and about 10,000 refund requests being processed.  

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10 minutes ago, T J said:

How are people dying “unbelievably damaging” to the economy? What’s “unbelievably damaging” to the economy is it not being open for business. 
 

It’s your sort of hyberbole that feeds the panic mentality. 
 

Count me as one to hope we are open for business no later than Easter. 

I mentioned this a few days ago. Someone had the nerve to say 3k people dying on 9/11 hurt the economy. No the actual terrorist attack hurt the economy not the # of people that died. 

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10 minutes ago, T J said:

How are people dying “unbelievably damaging” to the economy? What’s “unbelievably damaging” to the economy is it not being open for business. 
 

It’s your sort of hyberbole that feeds the panic mentality. 
 

Count me as one to hope we are open for business no later than Easter. 

I'm struggling for words here.  

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1 minute ago, Ben Hur said:

Both can be true.

If asymptomatic infection was more widespread, then mild and severe cases would also be more widespread. So it may be true that at a local level C19 is more widespread, but if your area doesn’t have any severe cases it is highly unlikely that you have any asymptomatic cases.

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ObservationPalm Beach County orders all non essential businesses closed and it hits you mentally in so many different directions and I fully understand why people have slightly different or widely different views in how people need to behave and operate right now. 

I was kind of shocked or surprised so many verticals are going to continue to operate, like I saw construction and landscape workers all out and about today. 

Palm Beach County Scroll to page 5 and they start listing the essential businesses. 

I was expecting more but they did finally shut down the golf courses...Martin County however still open. 

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