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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread

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3 minutes ago, hagmania said:

USA will top the world in total cases by EOD.

🇺🇸 

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2 minutes ago, ConnSKINS26 said:

There are people who think "the economy" (which is, if we're being honest on a meta level, mostly made up bull#### that benefits those fortunate enough--including many of us here, yes) is more important on any level than human lives that can be saved. And that thought process is just totally normal because of how skewed our humanity and priorities have become. As if the idea of a society is worth more than the people who actually make up that society. What is the ####### point of all this if we're willing to sacrifice lives so that the big numbers some worship can get bigger, to put it simply. I hope this whole ordeal and the things we show as a society we're able to do to combat it wakes some people up. This should be a turning point, but for some people they'll continue to prefer a perceived sense of normalcy that can turn on them at any moment as easily as it's turning on others now.

I sincerely hope that there are some meaningful changes in societal thinking and actions that come out of this - your comment is a perfect example of one we can hope for.

The best chance for large scale changes are with our younger generations... I hope they're watching closely and soaking it all in.

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4 minutes ago, SHIZNITTTT said:

Do you have the doctors name?

Perhaps. Why?

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2 minutes ago, Grace Under Pressure said:

@moleculo do you have a spreadsheet going?

i do, but it's not exactly fit for public consumption.

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10 minutes ago, NorvilleBarnes said:

My county FINALLY got around to issuing a "safer-at-home" order.

Effective tomorrow 10pm <_<

Right? I don't get all the shelter in place orders...starting in 2 days. So everybody rush out and get as much done as you can now...together...in stores...lined up for hours...together...:loco:

2 minutes ago, bradyfan said:

Don't bother quoting Daily Mail in here, they are persona non grata 'round here

1 minute ago, CurlyNight said:

Germany's secret? Lots of testing. They have a lot of small labs in that country. They're testing mild symptomatic people and quarantining the + cases.

Interesting so South Korea tested the #### out of anything that moved and had a pretty favorable outcome all things considered. Now you're saying Germany is doing the same and having similar results? Crazy talk man, this stuff is so out of the box, we would have never thought of it :rolleyes:

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@Joe 8ryant recently warned, and I'm doing it here again. Posts about politics in this thread -- starting here -- will not be tolerated.

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RI ordering all NYers travelling here to self-quarantine for 14 days. Lots of "summer homes" here and it's about a 2-3 hour drive depending on which end of each state is the start/end point. National Guard to help at airport / train / bus station(s) and State Police will pull over all NY plates to inform them and get contact information. 

https://www.wpri.com/health/coronavirus/march-26-ri-coronavirus-update/

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1 minute ago, Clayton Gray said:

@Joe 8ryant recently warned, and I'm doing it here again. Posts about politics in this thread -- starting here -- will not be tolerated.

Joe 8ryant laying down the law, per usual. 😄

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2 minutes ago, gianmarco said:

Perhaps. Why?

Well as a registered nurse working with at risk patients in the Tulsa area I would like to follow someone who may have knowledge about the virus.

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Before posting, ask yourself, "Might this be considered political?" If you aren't sure, don't post it.

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1 minute ago, Flying Elvis said:

RI ordering all NYers travelling here to self-quarantine for 14 days. Lots of "summer homes" here and it's about a 2-3 hour drive depending on which end of each state is the start/end point. National Guard to help at airport / train / bus station(s) and State Police will pull over all NY plates to inform them and get contact information. 

https://www.wpri.com/health/coronavirus/march-26-ri-coronavirus-update/

Man how do you even enforce that? This is how this thing just keeps spreading. Not sure when we will get it, if ever.

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21 minutes ago, CurlyNight said:

Germany's secret? Lots of testing. They have a lot of small labs in that country. They're testing mild symptomatic people and quarantining the + cases.

It is more than aggressive testing.  Median age of Coronavirus cases is 47 in Germany (70% between 20 and 50 years old), compared to 63 in Italy.  Germany has 25,000 ICU beds while Italy has 5,000 ICU beds.

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13 minutes ago, El Floppo said:

We don't own a car, which complicates things.

But we're looking at our options.

If you leave are you planning to quarantine for 14 days when you get where you’re going ?

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2 minutes ago, beer 30 said:

Man how do you even enforce that? This is how this thing just keeps spreading. Not sure when we will get it, if ever.

Not really a mention of enforcement, and it sure does seem nearly impossible. Better than nothing, I guess. At least it will drive the point home to the fleeing NYers in the (hopefully unlikely) event that they still don't get it. 

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9 minutes ago, beer 30 said:

Right? I don't get all the shelter in place orders...starting in 2 days. So everybody rush out and get as much done as you can now...together...in stores...lined up for hours...together...:loco:

Don't bother quoting Daily Mail in here, they are persona non grata 'round here

Interesting so South Korea tested the #### out of anything that moved and had a pretty favorable outcome all things considered. Now you're saying Germany is doing the same and having similar results? Crazy talk man, this stuff is so out of the box, we would have never thought of it :rolleyes:

South Korea, like Germany, has the same 3 things that really helped them: aggressive testing, younger cases and more ICU beds.

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Yesterday 100 people per hour died from COVID-19 around the world.

In about two weeks it could be 1000 people per hour... with the NYC area leading the way.  

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1 minute ago, NorvilleBarnes said:

Kudos to you guys giving warning after warning after warning after warning. 

And people continue to refuse to shelter at home in the political forum.

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6 minutes ago, bradyfan said:

South Korea, like Germany, has the same 3 things that really helped them: aggressive testing, younger cases and more ICU beds.

Or is the amount of younger cases on record because of all the aggressive testing? I get that Italty skews older but that has to be part of it.

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49 minutes ago, shuke said:

What % of your salary are you donating?

For reference, we actually donate about 10% of my take home pay to local non profit organizations. We have increased that recently because they are being hit hard. 

On top of that I also volunteer about 15-20 hours a month in my community. 

You?

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2 hours ago, Golden Gopher said:

There has to be some middle ground, where both can be accomplished to some extent.  In other words, stay at home, social distancing, etc. while still trying to "re-start" the economy to some extent.  It doesn't have to be one or the other.   And, restarting doesn't mean we go back to life as we knew it a month ago.  A lot of measures need to be put into place, and restarting has to be done very creatively, and in several steps.  Certain industries first.  Maybe certain age groups first.  Most importantly, look at who's going back to work and who's not, and does it make sense?  I've always felt that the most successful people in life are those who are able to adapt to change, sometimes with little time to do so.  This is the perfect example of that, and some are doing a great job.... restaurants transitioning to takeout/delivery only, distilleries becoming mass producers of hand sanitizer, companies transitioning to produce masks and ventilators on short notice, etc.  

All of that said, our top priority right now has to be to protect and save lives.  

No, unfortunately. Until things are under control there isn't really a middle ground and by under control you need the health care system stable, ubiquitous and easy testing, and people willing to do their part. I don't think we are close to any of that right now. There are "essential" businesses which need to keep going of course. If exposure translates to immunity then I could see a niche industry of recoved COVID19 people performing jobs that expose them quite a bit.

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7 minutes ago, Cowboysfan8 said:

If you leave are you planning to quarantine for 14 days when you get where you’re going ?

Hell no! We're going to party in our new freedom!!

 

 

 

 

Of course. And we've been quarantining ourselves already in anticipation prior to going anywhere, in case one of us becomes symptomatic...in which case we'd stay.

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55 minutes ago, shuke said:

What % of your salary are you donating?

Damn are we still defending literal billionaires by comparing them to people just trying to support their families and make a living? Unbelievable in 2020. 

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2 minutes ago, bradyfan said:

South Korea, like Germany, has the same 3 things that really helped them: aggressive testing, younger cases and more ICU beds.

I think a lot has to do with the populace of both nations as well. Both are fiercely nationalistic in their love for the Motherland and do whatever it takes to preserve. I'm not articulating my thoughts well but what I'm trying to say is their people listen. If there is a shelter in place order given in those countries I'd doubt you would see anyone other police & military on the roads. Here Karen is out getting Starbucks.

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5 minutes ago, Politician Spock said:

Yesterday 100 people per hour died from COVID-19 around the world.

In about two weeks it could be 1000 people per hour... with the NYC area leading the way.  

What good does a post like this serve?

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, ChiefD said:

Apparently the ice cream man driving around the neighborhood is an essential business.

I had to drive to pick up some belongings at my old house during lunch today - some neighborhood kids had made a lemonade stand and the Mom was standing there with like 5 kids waving at cars to try and get folks to stop and get lemonade.  I was like WTF ARE YOU DOING?!??

Edited by AAABatteries
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1 hour ago, Politician Spock said:

Where? All I see is people who are in denial about what's happening being told that they are fools for denying it. 

Who’s denying anything? 

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Posted (edited)
9 minutes ago, beer 30 said:

I think a lot has to do with the populace of both nations as well. Both are fiercely nationalistic in their love for the Motherland and do whatever it takes to preserve. I'm not articulating my thoughts well but what I'm trying to say is their people listen. If there is a shelter in place order given in those countries I'd doubt you would see anyone other police & military on the roads. Here Karen is out getting Starbucks.

 

Yeah, I don't think its political of me to state that American Exceptionalism is gonna be a problem in curbing this thing's impact. Already is. 

People simultaneously hero-worshipping the law while taking idiotic pride in doing whatever they personally want is a problem even outside a pandemic situation.

Edited by ConnSKINS26
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3 minutes ago, AAABatteries said:

I had to drive to pick up some belongings at my old house during lunch today - some neighborhood kids had made a lemonade stand and the Mom was standing there with like 5 kids waving at cars to try and get folks to stop and get lemonade.  I was like WTF ARE YOU DOING?!??

Just Karen and her brood selling cups of virus :rolleyes: We refuse to take this seriously as a populace. Not sure what it's going to take.

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4 minutes ago, jamny said:

What good does a post like this serve?

A wake-up call?  What's wrong with his post? That's the track we are on. 

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1 minute ago, ConnSKINS26 said:

 

Yeah, I don't think its political of me to state that American Exceptionalism is gonna be a problem in curbing this thing's impact. Already is. 

People simultaneously hero-worshipping the law while taking idiotic pride in doing whatever they personally want. 

There is more than one definition of “impact“ with this virus. I’m sorry, but I think the massive shutdowns, unemployment, small business closures, retirements, and all the rest are already the biggest piece of this. So sorry some don’t agree. 

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Just got an emergency alert on my phone from the Chicago mayor's office telling me that until further notice, Chicago lakefront, adjacent parks & beaches are closed.

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6 minutes ago, moleculo said:

i do, but it's not exactly fit for public consumption.

Is it set-up to model something like this (number of days):

2

3

7

12

16

38

46

58

76

157

271

285

385

Out to 56 days with a peak at day 28, a leveling off through day 35 and then a decrease from days 35-56 similar to the increase in days 1-13? If it's not set up like that then just ignore this.

Those numbers are NYC deaths. 

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19 minutes ago, Politician Spock said:

Yesterday 100 people per hour died from COVID-19 around the world.

In about two weeks it could be 1000 people per hour... with the NYC area leading the way.  

1000/day is very similar to smoking deaths, as a point of reference (I was curious for an analogous weapon of death) 

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Nashville 21 year old battling COVID warning youths

“So, I’m aware that we’re supposed to be self-quarantining and social distancing all these things to keep everyone safe. Cool. I get it,” said Tate in a video she made for social media. “I just don’t think that I’m going to get the virus."   She says her friends ignored city leaders’ call for social distancing. In fact, after city leader first suggested social distancing and socializing with no more than 10 people, her friends decided to get together at a friend’s house – all 20 of them.

Days after her social media video.....

“It feels like someone is sitting on my chest at all times. It’s really hard to breathe. I’ve coughed until my throat has bled,” Tate said, describing her symptoms of COVID-19.

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17 minutes ago, jamny said:

What good does a post like this serve?

He's been rooting for this for awhile. Don't stop him now. 

KAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHN

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Posted (edited)
23 minutes ago, shader said:

A wake-up call?  What's wrong with his post? That's the track we are on. 

We've had less than 24,000 deaths around the globe. Predicting that many each day is not the track we are on.

Edited by jamny
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42 minutes ago, hagmania said:

USA will top the world in total cases by EOD.

Because our testing has been slow to ramp up, I suspect we have been #1 already, and just didn't know it.

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Just now, jamny said:

We've had less than 24,000 deaths around the globe. Predicting that many each day in the US is not the track we are on.

That's not how math works.  He also didn't predict that many in the US only, he was talking about the world.

This is the issue.  We are still into this thing and people still haven't figured out how the math is going to play out until it's too late. At this point we can only hope the social distancing will keep us from the worst of it.

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18 minutes ago, AAABatteries said:

I had to drive to pick up some belongings at my old house during lunch today - some neighborhood kids had made a lemonade stand and the Mom was standing there with like 5 kids waving at cars to try and get folks to stop and get lemonade.  I was like WTF ARE YOU DOING?!??

Life gave them lemons

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21 minutes ago, jamny said:

What good does a post like this serve?

There are still people with their heads in the sand. This should not be a unicorn thread.

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33 minutes ago, facook said:

Our church is in the same position as yours.  I'm curious, how long do you think the leaders of your church would be willing to follow the government on this, and ignore Hebrews 10:25 (Do not neglect meeting together)?  I said about 100 pages ago in this thread that there will be churches that would start meeting eventually, regardless of what government says.  I think if our governor said, "Don't meet again till June 1" our leaders would abide.  If she said, "Don't meet again until I say you can" our leaders will start to chafe at that and eventually rebel - depending on how cv spreads in the near future.  Just curious your thoughts.

I think we’ll abide as long as there is indication that meeting in person still risks significant health impacts, whatever that looks like.

We were quick to put together services that we can stream on Sunday mornings and leave up for folks to watch. We’ve also rolled out video conferencing for all of our small groups that has been extremely successful. In fact, we’ve had more people view our services and participate in small groups than we did before all this happened. My small group has a large text thread that we touch base regularly in. No, it’s not the same as meeting in person, but it absolutely IS meeting together. We’re lucky to live in a time where we can still “meet” together, support each other, and live in community together through technology.

I recognize that not all churches have equipped themselves to do this very well, but IMO, that’s a poor excuse for putting people’s health at risk. Figure it out. Practically everyone has Facebook. It’s not hard to record and put a service up there. My parents are in their 60s and not technologically illiterate but not super on top of things either and they have had no problems figuring out FaceTime and Zoom. That goes double for these megachurches that are still meeting in person. It’s a simple reality of our time that people are already searching for community online more and more (hello FBG). Churches that have chosen to ignore that and who are refusing to use those resources and capabilities now have already made their choice to ignore the world outside of their doors IMO. Maybe that’s harsh, but I think it’s true of way too many American churches in general.

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Any warm weather updates from areas like South America? Is it making any difference?

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2 minutes ago, Grace Under Pressure said:

Is it set-up to model something like this (number of days):

2

3

7

12

16

38

46

58

76

157

271

285

385

Out to 56 days with a peak at day 28, a leveling off through day 35 and then a decrease from days 35-56 similar to the increase in days 1-13? If it's not set up like that then just ignore this.

Those numbers are NYC deaths. 

no - all I'm doing is deaths in day N+1 = deaths in day N * 1.4, and extrapolating that down.  Exponential growth.  simple math.  It can't account for leveling off, becase that requires something different happening - that something different might be the effect of quarantining, herd immunity, running out of people to get sick, etc.  I don't know how to model the peak.  I'm sure it can be done, I haven't looked that deeply into it.

I also roughly assume that coming down the opposite side of the peak is a mirror of going up.  i know that's not really how it works but it makes the math really easy.  All do is double the dumber you are at.  So, if you assume we are at the peak today, I would estimate the total number ot be 2x the deaths we have today.  rough calculation for sure, but easy math.  If you wanted to assume a level period before a ramp down, you just take the peak value, multiply that by how many days you are level, and add that to your total.  make sense?

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Anyone in the Bay Area may want to tune into ABC 7 news this afternoon (5 & 6pm).  They interviewed our CEO this am and will be airing a story on our COVID-19 treatment protocol.

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Posted (edited)
27 minutes ago, ConnSKINS26 said:

 

Yeah, I don't think its political of me to state that American Exceptionalism is gonna be a problem in curbing this thing's impact. Already is. 

People simultaneously hero-worshipping the law while taking idiotic pride in doing whatever they personally want is a problem even outside a pandemic situation.

Bingo.

Jingoism is blinding.

Edited by Sandeman
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