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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread

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1 hour ago, Ilov80s said:

I found a link that doesn't refer to any certain politician. Henry Ford Hospitals responded saying the letter is for a worst case scenario if they run out of ICU beds and vents. 

Note though the it has been reported area hospitals, including Henry Ford are already nearing capacity.

Thanks for sharing.  Yeesh, we have a lot to reconsider as a society after this.  When we get through to the other side, I do hope we take a hard look at our priorities as a nation and a people, and change our current trajectory.

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2 minutes ago, IvanKaramazov said:

Let's just ignore the (very real) public health crisis right now, and focus on the (also real) economic crisis instead.  Paying people to make ventilators, respirators, hand sanitizer, testing kits, etc. seems like a pretty smart thing to do as a small part of a broader fiscal agenda.

Thank you. What is so bad about pumping a billion dollars into the economy for Americans to build life saving equipment? We are giving away $6 trillion as is. 

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28 minutes ago, E-Z Glider said:

All non-essential businesses in PA were shut down last weekend. So far there have been a total of 57 warnings issued. No fines. Today, one of the local boroughs publicly announced on the news that they will NOT be enforcing any business closings in their borough. Others are expected to follow suit. This is going well. :rolleyes:

smfh

I just don’t get it

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Posted (edited)
23 hours ago, moleculo said:

good news: my simple model predicted 292 deaths yesterday, we only hit 247.   to be fair, my model predicted 209 on Tuesday and we actually hit 225 so who knows.  There's always bound to be some day to day variation.  I'll keep an eye on the trend and adjust as more data comes available.  

Bad news: we did crack a thousand fatalities yesterday, as predicted.  The number I am projecting today is 409.  I hope I'm wrong.

Here is a NYT study that shows similar analysis.  it's similar in that they are only looking at the gross number of deaths becasue testing varies so much between countries and may not be reliable in the US.  However, I'm not sure their data is correct - for example, they show 20 data points for the US, but their data doesn't begin until countries have 25 deaths.  We had our 25th death on March 9 (per Worldometer), so something isn't right.  Still, their analysis closely mirrors mine, showing that we were doing much better for the first few days and something got drastically worse 10-14 days ago.

One other comment - I noted several weeks ago that we really should consider us 50 states, not one country.  New York will have drastically different responses vs Wyoming.  If you scroll down in the NYT study, you can see deaths broken out by state and that seems to be true.  

good news: 2 days in a row my 40% daily increase model over predicted.  It's hard to say what I need to do to adjsut the model, but any adjustmeny I make isn't changing the aggregate numbers too much - it's still a lot when you project out another week or two.   Based on China and italy, I don't expect to see a reduction resulting from mitigation efforts (i.e. social distancing) until April 5th, so I don't think the reduction is that - I think it's just natural variation.  

If I were to assume a 35% daily increase (which models the last couple of days a bit closer), we would expect 362 fatalities today, and 21k culmulative by April 5th.  Sound impossible?  at Italy's peak, March 21, there was 4825 culmulative deaths.  The US is over 5x the size of Italy in terms of population.  4825*5=24125.   Hopefully we can crest well before that.

That 35% daily increase: that's roughly doubling every two days rate.

Edited by moleculo
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3 minutes ago, JaxBill said:

I have no idea how many NY needs and i agree that I would err on the higher number.  But the flip side is if they all of the ventilators,  do they have enough trained staff to administer them? 

The point is moot without the product. I'd rather have ventilators sitting waiting on people than the opposite. I know nothing about the training needed to run a ventilator other than what has been posted in here and it sounds very complicated but we have options. How many medics have been discharged from the army in the last 20 years? Call all of them back up you can, give them a 2 week refresher and attack the problem instead of coming up with reasons why we can't do it. (not saying you said that @JaxBill)

2 minutes ago, IvanKaramazov said:

Let's just ignore the (very real) public health crisis right now, and focus on the (also real) economic crisis instead.  Paying people to make ventilators, respirators, hand sanitizer, testing kits, etc. seems like a pretty smart thing to do as a small part of a broader fiscal agenda.

This is what turned the tide in WWII. We completely retooled our industrial capabilities in a relatively short period of time and started pumping out what we needed to win a world war. I don't look at this much differently and think the response we need to get ahead of this is similar. You are also putting people to work that otherwise wouldn't be. We can figure this out, we're pretty ####### smart in this country.

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33 minutes ago, E-Z Glider said:

All non-essential businesses in PA were shut down last weekend. So far there have been a total of 57 warnings issued. No fines. Today, one of the local boroughs publicly announced on the news that they will NOT be enforcing any business closings in their borough. Others are expected to follow suit. This is going well. :rolleyes:

Which borough is that so I know to avoid even after all this has passed us?

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3 minutes ago, moleculo said:

That 35% daily increase: that's roughly doubling every two days rate.

Or what every other country has experienced with this when they went through the ramp up phase, correct?

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18 hours ago, JAA said:

Wow - my original question was removed.  Id LOVE to know what for.

@T J - are you going to answer?

🦗

It was removed as we tired of repeatedly asking you to drop it and move on and try to be helpful. If you come back, please be helpful.

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2 minutes ago, beer 30 said:

Or what every other country has experienced with this when they went through the ramp up phase, correct?

correct.  We were at a rate faster than that for a while...may have been a temporary blip, or it could be from lack of testing previously underreporting the number of deaths early on.

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9 hours ago, Capella said:

https://www.nytimes.com/video/nyregion/100000007052136/coronavirus-elmhurst-hospital-queens.html
 

Chilling video from a NYC hospital at the center of this. I’ve never been more ashamed of this country. So many failures that led to this. 

Not to downplay the severity there but one of my first posts in here was a comment that I would be avoiding catching this because my local hospital is that one, Elmhurst. That place is a nightmare on a regular day. I've taken my in-laws there and had to wait hours for a room. They've shut down so many hospitals here in NY and especially in Queens over the past couple of decades, it is no surprise that the system is ill-prepared for this.. 

 

St. John's (pictured in this article) was walking distance from my house. It is now converted to apartments 

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8 hours ago, Chaos Commish said:

This is me. I followed orders and stocked food for a couple weeks a couple weeks ago. So it was time for more today. First time I have left the house. I sat in Walmart's parking lot for ten minutes watching "those people" and thinking of the many hundred others passing through already. I went to Albertson's. Sat in the parking lot... couldn't go in. Driving home I saw the convenience store closest to my house. Not a car in the parking lot. So I thought, milk, eggs, bread, booze, other junk, why not? So I parked, and feeling a little foolish I put on nitrile gloves and a mask.

At the front door was an employee in gloves and a mask wiping down every product before stocking. In an aisle was another employee wiping down every stocked product one at a time. I've been there hundreds of times, it has never been so pristine. The owner was there keeping his distance, gloves no mask. I ransacked the place filling my Trader Joe's cooler and two other bags that were in it. The owner asked me if I needed TP, rubbing alcohol, peroxide, sanitary wipes. I said no. He's keeping that stuff in a back room. Of course the check out clerk was wearing gloves and a mask. He asked cash or card. I said card. He sprayed the number pad and wiped it then slid it to me. $248.73. I got stuff, lotsa stuff. 

THEN before getting in my car I put my gloved hands in my jacket pockets. I sprayed them soon as I got home. So, my reaction to being in public spaces makes me wonder...

GB that guy for running a store where he cares for his customers that much.

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54 minutes ago, GoBirds said:

Seems like there are stories like this everywhere. Our country has failed miserably in Social Distancing 101. 

I see the opposite.

From what I can see and I talk to friends across the country, the vast majority of the country is doing excellent with social distancing. 

But nobody talks about that. 

It's certainly not 100%. But my sense is the vast majority of people are doing this very well. 

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6 hours ago, zoonation said:

Ah. Doctors are lying.  Got it.  

Name one doctor quoted in that article.

Name one hospital.

I will hang up and listen. 

 

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17 minutes ago, moleculo said:

good news: 2 days in a row my 40% daily increase model over predicted.  It's hard to say what I need to do to adjsut the model, but any adjustmeny I make isn't changing the aggregate numbers too much - it's still a lot when you project out another week or two.   Based on China and italy, I don't expect to see a reduction resulting from mitigation efforts (i.e. social distancing) until April 5th, so I don't think the reduction is that - I think it's just natural variation.  

If I were to assume a 35% daily increase (which models the last couple of days a bit closer), we would expect 362 fatalities today, and 21k culmulative by April 5th.  Sound impossible?  at Italy's peak, March 21, there was 4825 culmulative deaths.  The US is over 5x the size of Italy in terms of population.  4825*5=24125.   Hopefully we can crest well before that.

That 35% daily increase: that's roughly doubling every two days rate.

That's great news and thank you for sharing that. This is for the entire U.S.? 

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5 minutes ago, Joe Bryant said:

I see the opposite.

From what I can see and I talk to friends across the country, the vast majority of the country is doing excellent with social distancing. 

But nobody talks about that. 

It's certainly not 100%. But my sense is the vast majority of people are doing this very well. 

Not sure what "country" you are talking about but if it includes the United States and the north east... umm nope. 

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1 hour ago, IvanKaramazov said:
1 hour ago, Sammy3469 said:

Boris Johnson tests positive.

The writers are kind of mailing it in this season.

Makes me think I still have a chance at being a writer

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Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, Joe Bryant said:

I see the opposite.

From what I can see and I talk to friends across the country, the vast majority of the country is doing excellent with social distancing. 

But nobody talks about that. 

It's certainly not 100%. But my sense is the vast majority of people are doing this very well. 

I agree.  The social distancing measures are definitely happening.  Movie theaters, restaurants, malls, theme parks, public transportation, work places, schools....all these places are closed and that is likely reducing the spread dramatically.

The key is that we can't let up.  Gotta keep doing what we're doing for another 2-4 weeks.  If we can, then maybe we can open the quarantine, alongside a massive testing initiative and do some serious contact tracing as well.  Do all those things and this can be eradicated in 2 months.  

That's the hope and the goal.  Of course we don't have any data to prove that this will work, so we really need to see Italy/Spain's numbers start to fall soon so we can have some hope that this strategy will actually work.

Edited by shader
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4 minutes ago, Joe Bryant said:

I see the opposite.

From what I can see and I talk to friends across the country, the vast majority of the country is doing excellent with social distancing. 

But nobody talks about that. 

It's certainly not 100%. But my sense is the vast majority of people are doing this very well. 

I hope so, and thank you for sharing. News stories likely aren't going to focus on "look at how many people are doing the right thing!", they are going to focus on the sensational if possible, so it is easy to get the idea that so many people aren't taking this seriously.

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2 minutes ago, Buddy Ball 2K3 said:

Not sure what "country" you are talking about but if it includes the United States and the north east... umm nope. 

You’re right. Not every single person in the northeast is practicing social distancing. Might as well pack it all up since we don’t have that 100% adherence rate.

Here’s your cookie: 🍪

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I filed for unemployment. For the first time ever.

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Did I read that correctly?

I have a 17 year old senior. There will be no relief check for her?

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Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, shader said:

I agree.  The social distancing measures are definitely happening.  Movie theaters, restaurants, malls, theme parks, public transportation, work places, schools....all these places are closed and that is likely reducing the spread dramatically.

The key is that we can't let up.  Gotta keep doing what we're doing for another 2-4 weeks.  If we can, then maybe we can open the quarantine, alongside a massive testing initiative and do some serious contact tracing as well.  Do all those things and this can be eradicated in 2 months.  

That's the hope and the goal.  Of course we don't have any data to prove that this will work, so we really need to see Italy/Spain's numbers start to fall soon so we can have some hope that this strategy will actually work.

This. Thank you. 

Edited by Grace Under Pressure

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So, a friend of mine who works in epidemiology at the CDC says that the White House has asked the department for a county-by-county assessment of confirmed COVID-19 cases so they can start issuing “back-to-work” suggestions for counties that they will designate as “low risk” with few/no current cases.

Needless to say, the mood over at Clifton Rd is not good over this ridiculousness.

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1 hour ago, Otis said:

Cuomo is making a great case for a run for the presidency.  I know New Yorkers who are staunch republicans who said (in fact just yesterday) that they'd vote for Cuomo in a heartbeat if he were an option in the upcoming election. 

Maybe VP for the dem nominee?

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Just now, Terminalxylem said:

Maybe VP for the dem nominee?

Biden has already said it will be a woman

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1 minute ago, prosopis said:

Did I read that correctly?

I have a 17 year old senior. There will be no relief check for her?

It’s in line with the tax code. You lose the child tax credit when they turn 17. My kids are both in college. They filed their own tax returns this year, but I still claimed them as dependents. I’m not getting the $500 for them. I don’t know if they’ll get their own $1200.

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1 hour ago, Ilov80s said:

Was it discussed here that GM is no longer going to be making ventilators? The government backed out saying it was too expensive and there was worry they would end up with too many ventilators. They are now looking at more options.

In other words, GM couldn't make a profit at the price the government was willing to pay for them. 

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26 minutes ago, Ted Lange as your Bartender said:

Which borough is that so I know to avoid even after all this has passed us?

Mt Joy

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1 minute ago, DaVinci said:

It’s in line with the tax code. You lose the child tax credit when they turn 17. My kids are both in college. They filed their own tax returns this year, but I still claimed them as dependents. I’m not getting the $500 for them. I don’t know if they’ll get their own $1200.

Curious about this as well.

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2 minutes ago, Workhorse said:

So, a friend of mine who works in epidemiology at the CDC says that the White House has asked the department for a county-by-county assessment of confirmed COVID-19 cases so they can start issuing “back-to-work” suggestions for counties that they will designate as “low risk” with few/no current cases.

Needless to say, the mood over at Clifton Rd is not good over this ridiculousness.

I saw this and have mixed feelings.  In theory it should work.  China didn't shut down their whole country, they shut down the affected areas. But to make this decision, you have to be confident in your county-by-county numbers and nationwide testing has to be comprehensive.  If it's not, it's a recipe for absolute disaster.  If the government opens up a county that is designated as low risk, but really has 100 people with the virus, it becomes a hot spot in 2 weeks.

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23 minutes ago, jamny said:

Not to downplay the severity there but one of my first posts in here was a comment that I would be avoiding catching this because my local hospital is that one, Elmhurst. That place is a nightmare on a regular day. I've taken my in-laws there and had to wait hours for a room. They've shut down so many hospitals here in NY and especially in Queens over the past couple of decades, it is no surprise that the system is ill-prepared for this.. 

 

St. John's (pictured in this article) was walking distance from my house. It is now converted to apartments 

They did this all across the city. Closing hospitals to build luxury apartments. The hospital all three of my kids were born at is now luxury condos. So absurd. 

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3 minutes ago, DaVinci said:

It’s in line with the tax code. You lose the child tax credit when they turn 17. My kids are both in college. They filed their own tax returns this year, but I still claimed them as dependents. I’m not getting the $500 for them. I don’t know if they’ll get their own $1200.

if they're claimed as dependents, they get zero according to what I have seen.

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1 minute ago, Big League Chew said:

reddit should make an ongoing list of companies that arnt cooperating with the shutdown. so everyone can avoid them in the future

my company is staying open, and i'm thankful for that (we make a claim that we are essential).   If we shut down, there's no guarantee we would re-open.  We are encouraged to WFH but the manufacturing lines obviously can't do that.  They are taking every precaution they can to keep workers safe.

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3 minutes ago, shader said:

I saw this and have mixed feelings.  In theory it should work.  China didn't shut down their whole country, they shut down the affected areas. But to make this decision, you have to be confident in your county-by-county numbers and nationwide testing has to be comprehensive.  If it's not, it's a recipe for absolute disaster.  If the government opens up a county that is designated as low risk, but really has 100 people with the virus, it becomes a hot spot in 2 weeks.

IIRC, China shut the entire country down for a few weeks to a month and re-opened slowly and deliberately.

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1 minute ago, moleculo said:

my company is staying open, and i'm thankful for that (we make a claim that we are essential).   If we shut down, there's no guarantee we would re-open.  We are encouraged to WFH but the manufacturing lines obviously can't do that.  They are taking every precaution they can to keep workers safe.

i meant bars etc. non essential places that are saying F the man im gonna do what im gonna do

similar to kid rocks bar

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Just now, moleculo said:

IIRC, China shut the entire country down for a few weeks to a month and re-opened slowly and deliberately.

Other thing China did was still close off the hot zones from other areas and that doesn't appear to be the US plan from what I have read. (which seems disastrous)

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1 hour ago, Otis said:

Cuomo is making a great case for a run for the presidency.  I know New Yorkers who are staunch republicans who said (in fact just yesterday) that they'd vote for Cuomo in a heartbeat if he were an option in the upcoming election. 

I was one fo the first who lean Right to praise him and continue to support him right now. I would like to see him talked about more after this crisis passes and we have to see what happens over the coming weeks as this peaks in NYC.  The Mods and JB have asked for no politics and I want to respect their wishes. So I won't take that part any further however...

-People want to rally around leaders in times of crisis and your Governor is doing an outstanding job of being a great leader right now. His Letter or symbol of whichParty he represents shouldn't matter right now and it doesn't. It doesn't help morale to feel abandoned by the people you elect but Cuomo is displaying tremendous leadership in a time of crisis. He isn't the first elected official in the great State of New York to respond in a moment of crisis, it's happened a few times there over the last 25-30 years. 

Stay Strong!!!

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Good news out of New York - Hospitalization Rate Drops, PPE Need Filled

Quote

According to messages from Governor Andrew Cuomo (D-NY), medical staffers have enough proactive gear for the immediate future and the rate of hospital admission in COVID-19 cases has decreased since Sunday.

During a Thursday press conference, Cuomo assured the public that there is enough personal protective equipment, or “PPE,” for medical health officials in the immediate future. The governor told reporters that his team has spoken to every hospital in the hard-hit coronavirus area and they confirmed their PPE needs are being met

 

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10 minutes ago, DaVinci said:

It’s in line with the tax code. You lose the child tax credit when they turn 17. My kids are both in college. They filed their own tax returns this year, but I still claimed them as dependents. I’m not getting the $500 for them. I don’t know if they’ll get their own $1200.

I would think they would get 1200 then. Does not seem right to cut so many people out of the benefit and honestly we need it. She is asking me for a college sign up fee and right now we don't have it. That money would be the sign up fee.

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22 minutes ago, Grace Under Pressure said:

That's great news and thank you for sharing that. This is for the entire U.S.? 

yes, the entire US.  I would note that the US death rate is driven primarily by New York, who had 5x as many deaths yesterday as the the #2 state, New Jersey.  I expect other states to ramp up.

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3 minutes ago, Ministry of Pain said:

I was one fo the first who lean Right to praise him and continue to support him right now. I would like to see him talked about more after this crisis passes and we have to see what happens over the coming weeks as this peaks in NYC.  The Mods and JB have asked for no politics and I want to respect their wishes. So I won't take that part any further however...

-People want to rally around leaders in times of crisis and your Governor is doing an outstanding job of being a great leader right now. His Letter or symbol of whichParty he represents shouldn't matter right now and it doesn't. It doesn't help morale to feel abandoned by the people you elect but Cuomo is displaying tremendous leadership in a time of crisis. He isn't the first elected official in the great State of New York to respond in a moment of crisis, it's happened a few times there over the last 25-30 years. 

Stay Strong!!!

Don't give an arsonist too much credit for calling 911

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8 minutes ago, shader said:

I saw this and have mixed feelings.  In theory it should work.  China didn't shut down their whole country, they shut down the affected areas. But to make this decision, you have to be confident in your county-by-county numbers and nationwide testing has to be comprehensive.  If it's not, it's a recipe for absolute disaster.  If the government opens up a county that is designated as low risk, but really has 100 people with the virus, it becomes a hot spot in 2 weeks.

1) we are already passed the timeframe China implemented their tactics, and if this is something for the "Easter reopen plan" it will be even further past China's timeframe.

2) people in China were being tracked everywhere they went. Going to a public building, they get scanned and logged. Getting on a train they get scanned and logged. Getting off a train they get scanned and logged, etc, etc.... everywhere. If the virus shows up somewhere, they know exactly where it traveled and take appropriate action to isolate it. There is absolutely no way the USA can know that. Even a 1,000 population town can cause havoc for us all when we don't know all the touch points that town has had with the rest of the country. 

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25 minutes ago, Joe Bryant said:

I see the opposite.

From what I can see and I talk to friends across the country, the vast majority of the country is doing excellent with social distancing. 

But nobody talks about that. 

It's certainly not 100%. But my sense is the vast majority of people are doing this very well. 

I think a lot of people are doing well.  And many places.

But there are still many that don't care.

Was picking up an order at target the other day (as they were the only place near by that had distilled water...both for my cpap and my sinus rinse that is pretty important to me this time of year).  Waiting at the customer service counter...3 employees  come up behind me and start chatting a few feet from me and another walks up.  I would have loved to have seen video of me turning around and the look I gave them.

The person that takes that order does so with a little phone thing...which you then have to sign with your finger.  Thankfully...I was there with hand sanitizer immediately after.  You would think they can work out a way to have that done without touching things after I had paid online.  Given how they were acting...the bags the things were in stayed in the car and everything else got wiped down before it came in the house.

Ive also noticed plenty of places that are still quite busy...and I know a couple places in Mt. Juliet just outside of Nashville still were allowing dine in up until a few days ago.  

 

The problem is that how this spreads...it doesn't take all that many not complying or taking it seriously...to mess this all up.  Im glad many are doing what they are supposed to...I hope some will see that and do the same.

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24 minutes ago, RUSF18 said:

You’re right. Not every single person in the northeast is practicing social distancing. Might as well pack it all up since we don’t have that 100% adherence rate.

Here’s your cookie: 🍪

I travel from Midwest Pa to Del and NJ and the only places I have seen it is at Costco where its forced and my own businesses. I will traveling up to NY today and I am sure that I will once again see people act as if little is going on. My point is that not that NOBODY is practicing SD, but the majority are not. 

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