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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread

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3 hours ago, Herb said:

Not just NYC trenches, unfortunately.  I live in an area that has not been hard hit (yet) and supplies are already quite low here. Practically everything disposable is on back order. Anything, disposable or reusable, that has to do with respiratory protection is nearly impossible to obtain. 

This has been a concern of mine all along. With several major cities as epicenters that require extra supplies in a very short window, what happens in the next 3-5 hot spots when they make the same call for more resources? What about the next 3-5 after that? It's going to be interesting to see how the curve of the virus goes, how the needs grow, and how well the production ramp up can meet that need. I can say that this (rather selfish) thought is part of the reason I was an early adopter of WFH and family isolation. 

 

16 minutes ago, rick6668 said:

Some good news to share. 

I have mentioned before that I volunteer at our church's food pantry.  This is not a normal food pantry,  but runs once a month and works directly with foodlink to supply food to those in need in our community.  It is the largest food pantry in our county.  We normally service 400-450 families monthly with a shopping cart full of food.  This includes pantry type items like pasta, rice, beans, sauce, peanut butter, canned vegetables, fresh meat (usually 10-15 pounds) as well as fresh produce depending on what we can get, like romaine, grapes, etc.  We have had to change things quite dramatically this month to deals with groups and safety, but the need for volunteers is still needed as ~50% of our normal volunteers are 65+.

We have done some pre-packing the last two days of non perishables which allowed us to keep distance from others and keep the total number of people down to small numbers.  I just got back from there to help with some pre-packing.  Going in at 7am tomorrow as we will have $450 worth of food for 600 families to distribute.  We have 4 tractor trailers arriving tomorrow to deliver a whole truck of frozen vegetables and 3 trucks of perishables (meat/daily/produce).

I was worried about going but I will have a mask/gloves and they are going to be handling this well I think.  The need is just too important and I feel I need to go.

Hand sanitizer, hand washing, masks and smart social distancing should be plenty to keep you and the other workers safe while providing what is clearly an essential service. 

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Just now, parasaurolophus said:

Like this camp?

Sounds awesome!

 

Yikes, that's not good.  I guess the story I read this morning sugar-coated it.  They interviewed someone that said it was a really good experience.  Thanks for sharing.

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50 minutes ago, GoBirds said:

I think I agree and maybe wasn’t clear, the majority I believe are definitely taking it seriously. I’m more surprised at the size of the group that disregards it either totally or even when I’m in Lowe’s you see many instances not staying 6’ apart. I don’t think it’s realistic thoug that you are going to completely shutdown a country used to their freedom like we are but I do think we’ll do enough to get through this. Plenty to shake your head at though. 

See, I don't understand this part.  Every western liberal democracy on earth is also used to the same "freedom" yet are taking this far more seriously.

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Just now, shader said:

Yikes, that's not good.  I guess the story I read this morning sugar-coated it.  They interviewed someone that said it was a really good experience.  Thanks for sharing.

You sure it wasnt vietnam?

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1 minute ago, shader said:

Yikes, that's not good.  I guess the story I read this morning sugar-coated it.  They interviewed someone that said it was a really good experience.  Thanks for sharing.

Are you sure you’re not confusing Pakistan and Vietnam?

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40 minutes ago, Capella said:

How is anybody in that state even walking outside? What are they thinking? 

Really? Stay 6 feet apart, wash your hands if you have to go food shopping, etc

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1 minute ago, parasaurolophus said:

You sure it wasnt vietnam?

I swear it was Pakistan, but I can't seem to find the article, so let's go with yours.  Either way, the IDEA of a quarantine camp is great, provided that the conditions are good.

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Just now, DaVinci said:

Are you sure you’re not confusing Pakistan and Vietnam?

Hmm maybe so.  Good for Vietnam. 🙂

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50 minutes ago, Grace Under Pressure said:

He reported 385 and 519. That's a 35% increase, right in line with what @moleculohas been tracking with his update this morning.

I'd vote for @moleculo

I'm still unclear about the testing or lack of that we continue to see in pockets across the country. I'm suspecting (hoping?) it's a matter of not having the test kits in the right place at the right time and the general lack of reagents needed for the testing or the processing, not sure which. If it's anything other than that, my disappointment in our response to this event would be vindicated and that sucks.

Anybody have any ideas other than "we dropped the ball" about lack of testing? 

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Yeah this certainly isn't done by any means in China. I suspect what they're doing is setting it up so they can blame the west on "re-infecting" them. They know they can't suppress info forever so the next best thing is to frame it as an external threat.

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On 3/26/2020 at 12:13 PM, Nathan R. Jessep said:

Latest numbers for Louisiana as of noon CST today, just for comparison basis for other regions of the country:

2305 cases (increase of 510 since yesterday)

83 deaths (increase of 18)

676 Covid-19 patients in hospitals (increase of 185)

239 Covid-19 patients on ventilators (increase of 76)

2254 tests completed by state lab (increase of 217)

15775 tests completed by commerical labs (increase of 6361)

53 of 64 parishes reporting cases (increase of 5)

Update today, 24 hours later:

2746 cases

119 deaths

773 hospitalized

270 on vents

2476 tests by state

18883 test by commercial

54 of 64 parishes (and I know for a fact one of the parishes not reporting, the one of my home town, has had several confirmed positives, so they're either not in today's update yet, or they are attributed to another parish due to patient's residency)

 

If I did that math right, that was 441 positive tests out of 3330 tests issued, for a positive rate of 13.24% 

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42 minutes ago, Capella said:

How is anybody in that state even walking outside? What are they thinking? 

It's all just bagels and coffee man.... bagels and coffee. :coffee:

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1 minute ago, tamales said:
42 minutes ago, Capella said:

How is anybody in that state even walking outside? What are they thinking? 

Really? Stay 6 feet apart, wash your hands if you have to go food shopping, etc

Yeah, someone doesn't really know all that much about New York.  Probably thinks it is all NYC.  But it won't stop people from opening their mouth.

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6 minutes ago, zoonation said:

See, I don't understand this part.  Every western liberal democracy on earth is also used to the same "freedom" yet are taking this far more seriously.

You are in canada right?

How do they handle positive cases? Do they shield the name of a positive tested coworker? What about church services, Exempt? Curious how other countries are handling these issues. 

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Just now, Hodor said:

Actually this one talks about SK/China approach and why it works

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/12/podcasts/the-daily/coronavirus-pandemic.html

Yes that's the same guy.  The one you linked is the one I also referenced that discussed how China quarantined people (which the USA is not doing).

This reporter (Donald McNeil) seemed much more pessimistic in the 3/24 pod than the one two weeks prior.

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17 minutes ago, shader said:

Italy:  5,909 new cases and 919 new deaths 😞

Italy's new cases are below the peak number of new cases for the 6th straight day (3/21 was their peak). The deaths reported today are 6 days following their peak number of new cases. It's a tragedy in Italy, hopefully their new cases have indeed flattened and they maintain their diligence on extreme social distancing and reductions in new cases can follow. 

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I spoke to a friend who is an ICU nurse here in Sacramento   

She said last week they had a pair of 90 year olds with the virus and they got over it pretty quick and went home. 

This week they have 3 patients.   2 of them are Ukrainian.   They’re all doing fine.  

Nothing alarming yet. 🤞🏽

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10 minutes ago, Sinn Fein said:

China Shuts Down All Cinemas, Again

Over the past two weeks, hundreds of movie theaters in the country had begun to reopen. No reason for the policy reversal was given, but insiders believe the government is worried about a potential second wave of coronavirus infections.

Until there is a vaccine or herd immunity wtf would they think it ok to start having people gathering again? Wtf?

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Just now, Apple Jack said:

Until there is a vaccine or herd immunity wtf would they think it ok to start having people gathering again? Wtf?

Maybe Easter came early over there. :shrug:

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Just now, Grace Under Pressure said:

Italy's new cases are below the peak number of new cases for the 6th straight day (3/21 was their peak). The deaths reported today are 6 days following their peak number of new cases. It's a tragedy in Italy, hopefully their new cases have indeed flattened and they maintain their diligence on extreme social distancing and reductions in new cases can follow. 

Yeah what we really need to see there is for the new cases to start dropping dramatically.  They've definitely leveled off, so that's great news.  But the next step has to be for new cases to drop as they did in China and SK.

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5 minutes ago, Apple Jack said:

Until there is a vaccine or herd immunity wtf would they think it ok to start having people gathering again? Wtf?

:shrug:

That is what everyone wants to do here...

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23 minutes ago, shader said:

That is very true.  I think back to a NYT podcast I listened to a week or two ago where the expert was talking about how the USA's social distancing policy didn't work in China and that the only way they stopped the numbers is by taking people with the virus away.

I was reading about Pakistan this morning.  They've setup "quarantine camps".  But before you think of this in a Nazi-way, the people in these camps say they have wifi, good food, and are generally comfortable.  Smart from them.  

This is exactly right. People were blasting the policy in China of rounding up the infected And putting them in make shift hospitals. Even mild cases would go to these hospitals and if they become serious they went to real hospitals. Harsh but it stopped the spread. WHO report the most common spread was within families. One person got it and then the rest of the family would eventually get it. 
 

Not sure Western nations can/will take that approach but it needs to be considered. 

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In a small town in the Peruvian Andes, older pensioners wait patiently in line outside the bank, in chairs spaced over a meter apart. Everyone has a mask. But we sent a man to the moon. 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/larepublica.pe/sociedad/2020/03/26/apurimac-banco-puso-sillas-separadas-para-que-ancianos-esperen-su-turno-y-cobren-pension-cuarentena-coronavirus-lrsd/%3foutputType=amp

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Just now, parasaurolophus said:

You are in canada right?

How do they handle positive cases? Do they shield the name of a positive tested coworker? What about church services, Exempt? Curious how other countries are handling these issues. 

Yes.  I was initially unhappy with the federal government response as they were a bit late (in my view) to take this seriously.  I'm not a Trudeau fan - think he is a phony - but he got serious very quick, which was about two weeks ago.  Each province across the country declared a state of emergency very early on.  I live in Alberta and we have been under state of emergency and a shelter in place directive for about two weeks now, and that started when there was less than 50 cases in the province.

The messaging coming out of our province (and every province so far as I am aware) has been consistent and in lockstep with the feds have been saying.  We are taking this extremely seriously, have few cases relative to the rest of the world, and are not talking about "opening the country back up by Easter".  Science and Canada Health are leading the messaging.

So far, I believe that only Ontario has issued a formal directive re only essential businesses remaining open.  Quebec too maybe.  I think other provinces would have too, but the voluntary compliance is working.  I live in a city of 1.2 million, and nothing is open.  I am not sure about shielding the name of a positive tested co-worker.  Our entire downtown core is shut down though.  Everyone is working from home.

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19 minutes ago, parasaurolophus said:

Like this camp?

Sounds awesome!

With all the complaints we have in this thread about the US response (and yes I'm a leading contributor) I can't fathom what dealing with this in a third world country would be like. Although thinking a little about it, they probably deal with a lot of outbreaks like this on a much more regular basis than what we are used to. Still can't be easy, can't imagine.

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For anyone interested in testing stats (or guys on debate teams):

https://covidtracking.com/ 
The COVID Tracking Project collects information from 50 US states, the District of Columbia, and 5 other US territories to provide the most comprehensive testing data we can collect for the novel coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2. We attempt to report positive and negative results, pending tests, and total people tested for each state or district currently reporting that data.

Note that they  can only track tests that a state reports. And not all states report all negative tests.

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21 minutes ago, tamales said:

Really? Stay 6 feet apart, wash your hands if you have to go food shopping, etc

Had to restock today from the supermarket. We've taken a walk around the park every day. Keeping proper precautions but getting sunlight and exercise is important too. There was probably more of a chance of getting it 2-3 weeks ago than there is now with so many taking precautions.

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8 minutes ago, zoonation said:

Yes.  I was initially unhappy with the federal government response as they were a bit late (in my view) to take this seriously.  I'm not a Trudeau fan - think he is a phony - but he got serious very quick, which was about two weeks ago.  Each province across the country declared a state of emergency very early on.  I live in Alberta and we have been under state of emergency and a shelter in place directive for about two weeks now, and that started when there was less than 50 cases in the province.

The messaging coming out of our province (and every province so far as I am aware) has been consistent and in lockstep with the feds have been saying.  We are taking this extremely seriously, have few cases relative to the rest of the world, and are not talking about "opening the country back up by Easter".  Science and Canada Health are leading the messaging.

So far, I believe that only Ontario has issued a formal directive re only essential businesses remaining open.  Quebec too maybe.  I think other provinces would have too, but the voluntary compliance is working.  I live in a city of 1.2 million, and nothing is open.  I am not sure about shielding the name of a positive tested co-worker.  Our entire downtown core is shut down though.  Everyone is working from home.

I assume grocery stores are open?

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Update from my friend that I posted the other day, who is an Infectious Disease Specialist at NYU Langone:

His most recent post:

"Crazy time. Never seen this many of my office patients and colleagues sick at one time, and the hospital feels like a war zone. But everyone is stepping up. Watching my critical care colleagues visibly exhausted but pushing through, Nps and PAs reassigned to random floors throughout the hospital, janitors, food staff, everyone doing their part to make sure this place keeps doing what we do. I’m humbled to be in your company. I’m not getting the sense that the plaquenil or IL6 antagonists are doing much, but hopefully I am wrong about that. Many of the large hospitals are doing studies on people who tested positive and are now better, so if you fall into that category, try calling the infectious disease or critical care department there to see if they can use you. Hard to tell why a small percentage of people seem to do very poorly with this. But it’s clear that the vast majority do not get extremely sick. Hang in there everyone. We will get through this.
(Again, no need to comment as I am not replying for now. Thx)"

 

Bolded some of the salient points.  What seems to becoming all the more clear is this disease generally doesn't cause catastrophic health outcomes in most.  But for a small percentage, and for reasons we don't yet know/understand, it's far, far more serious.  I guess it's "worse than a flu" for most, but "can be a near or actual death sentence" for some, to use some of the terminology of the past weeks.

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Trudeau’s wife got Covid two weeks ago. That kinda forced him to take this seriously and shut things down.  Canada was doing nothing but went into high gear when that happened.  

To the benefit of all Canada. 

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A couple of questions:

 

Are they still seeing symptoms showing up 14 days after getting infected or have they lowered that estimate?

Is the warmer weather helping at all in areas that are heating up?

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9 minutes ago, zoonation said:

Yes.  I was initially unhappy with the federal government response as they were a bit late (in my view) to take this seriously.  I'm not a Trudeau fan - think he is a phony - but he got serious very quick, which was about two weeks ago.  Each province across the country declared a state of emergency very early on.  I live in Alberta and we have been under state of emergency and a shelter in place directive for about two weeks now, and that started when there was less than 50 cases in the province.

The messaging coming out of our province (and every province so far as I am aware) has been consistent and in lockstep with the feds have been saying.  We are taking this extremely seriously, have few cases relative to the rest of the world, and are not talking about "opening the country back up by Easter".  Science and Canada Health are leading the messaging.

So far, I believe that only Ontario has issued a formal directive re only essential businesses remaining open.  Quebec too maybe.  I think other provinces would have too, but the voluntary compliance is working.  I live in a city of 1.2 million, and nothing is open.  I am not sure about shielding the name of a positive tested co-worker.  Our entire downtown core is shut down though.  Everyone is working from home.

Looking at Worldometer for Canada would seem to back up the fact that they have apparently handled it well thus far. Can't say that's a surprise for many reasons. Good on you guys. 

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2 minutes ago, CurlyNight said:

I assume grocery stores are open?

yes.  and some pick up and delivery (including skip and door dash).  liquor stores too.

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More from the front lines in NY:
 

Quote

 

I was initially skeptical of COVID-19. Today, it frightens me.

I am an internal medicine resident working at a nest blanket hospital in New York City. Ten days ago, we had zero patients with COVID in our hospital. Today, we have hundreds. Ten days ago, we were well rested with a supercharged attitude, ready to tackle the virus head on. Today, we are overburdened, exhausted, sick, and disappointed. Our supplies have dwindled, our census of critical patients has skyrocketed, and we are running out of healthcare providers due to the lack of adequate protective equipment. We are fighting a losing battle with no end in sight and need help – now.

Officially, we have 13 resident physicians at this hospital who fallen sick to the virus. Unofficially, it is likely much, much higher. As I walk through the halls, I see attendings and residents hiding their coughs, clearing their throats under their breath, or sniffling as they turn away. Why do we continue to work? Because if we don’t, who will? We are physically sick, but no one can replace us. We hide our emotions and our coughs from our fellow colleagues and try to comfort each other, but we don’t know how. All our energy is focused on our patients.

A few days ago, I was called into a code blue. Normal protocol requires that we bag mask the patient, but new COVID protocols state that we should not to avoid aerosolization of viral particles. As I watched him decompensate, I asked myself, “Do I protect my life, or risk his, a 41-year-old with a family and long life ahead of him?” We took an oath when we graduated medical school, and that is why we are here every day. That is why I decided to risk my life to bag mask him.

We have shut down multiple units in our hospital and dedicated them to the care of COVID patients. We call these areas the “COVID Caves.” Each day while working in the ICU, we get an average of 12 new consults for COVID patients. To find them, I walk down a dark hallway, past an endless row of stretchers until I find my new patient. When I reach the gurney propped up against the musty gray wall, I put on my mask, the same mask I have been using for days, and my suboptimal goggles, which I sanitize after each patient encounter. The patient has the “COVID appearance of doom.” We know he will require intubation soon. But we must then decide – how can we allocate our dwindling resources most ethically and effectively? We have already run out of ventilators in this hospital. We cannot provide everyone with the care they deserve. Multiple times per day, we are now faced with the nightmarish and chilling decision of choosing between intubating a 40-year-old patient and an 80-year-old patient. We took an oath to do no harm and act in the best interest of our patients. This country’s lack of preparedness, though, has made it so we cannot act in their best interests. We are here, making life and death decisions, because our markets and governments are systematically broken.

These are not tales from another country. These are truths from New York, your New York. And, soon, this will be the reality in your own town if major changes are not made across the country.

What do we need? We need supplies for patients – ventilators, beds, and medications. We need protection for medical providers – appropriate masks, goggles, and gowns. We need more providers so that those who are sick can stay home to heal and prevent the spread of infection. We need you to take hygiene and distancing protocols seriously. We are begging for help.

 

 

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8 minutes ago, jamny said:

There was probably more of a chance of getting it 2-3 weeks ago than there is now with so many taking precautions.

That is probably off-set by how many more people are infected today, than 2-3 weeks ago.

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1 hour ago, toshiba said:

NY is a huge place.  I live in a town with more cows than people.

In Western NY, we're much closer to Toronto, Cleveland, and Pittsburgh than to NYC.   We've still got cases, but it's not the same level of outbreak as downstate at this point (though we continue to get worse every day).

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 A few years ago I left the ICU/Surgery/PACU area of hospitals and started doing Hospice.  

We cannot get any supplies at the moment.  No masks, PPE gear, hard to get even simple supplies like lantiseptic for wounds.    With that being said it is scaring families since we are going all over the place and seeing so many people and protecting ourselves.     Which worries the families that we could be carriers.   We check our temp before each patient, wash our hands and wear gloves but no masks or other PPE gear.   Most of my patients have gone to once a week visits due to fear.   Some of the patients in facilities have gone to one visit every two weeks.    It really is scary trying to care for sick people thinking in the back of your mind you might bring home a bug to your family.       I seriously think that the government should have gone to no visits unless medically necessary.  Families can call if they need something.  We could still deliver medications and supplies (That we can get) to the families  until we get proper PPE gear.  

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1 hour ago, BigJim® said:

That's the point (there's no point to that messaging). So the other options seem to be going with messaging that might curb behavior or go with no messaging at all in futility. While we're throwing our hands in the air, should we stop shaming people from using mobile phones while driving? We wouldn't want to exaggerate the problem, and it probably won't help curb behavior anyway, right?   

I'm not advocating no messaging, but I don't think the people whose behavior might need to be curbed in either situation are paying much attention to the news, and those stories aren't really messaging other than "look at all these crazy irresponsible morons, we're so doomed - keep watching Channel 4 for more details". 

it's all good man, we can agree to disagree - I would be glad to know I'm wrong and the folks ignoring social distancing decide to change their ways posthaste. 

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3 hours ago, Ben Hur said:

Is New Orleans because of Mardi Gras?  If this is somehow proven, then that's gonna leave a mark for re-opening sports and stuff.

I'm sure this has been posted in here already, it's impossible to keep up if you step away for a few hours (which I find myself needing to do).  But yeah, getting back to fans attending live sports is going to be a challenge for awhile.

'Game Zero?' Soccer Game Attended by 40,000 Fans Likely Made This Italian City a Coronavirus Epicenter

 

Quote

(ROME) — It was the biggest soccer game in Atalanta’s history and a third of Bergamo’s population made the short trip to Milan’s famed San Siro Stadium.

Nearly 2,500 fans of visiting Spanish club Valencia also traveled to that Champions League match.

More than a month later, experts are pointing to the Feb. 19 game as one of the biggest reasons why Bergamo has become one of the epicenters of the coronavirus pandemic — a “biological bomb” was the way one respiratory specialist put it — and why 35% of Valencia’s team became infected.

The match, which local media have dubbed “Game Zero,” was held two days before the first case of locally transmitted COVID-19 was confirmed in Italy.

“We were mid-February so we didn’t have the circumstances of what was happening,” Bergamo Mayor Giorgio Gori said this week during a live Facebook chat with the Foreign Press Association in Rome. “If it’s true what they’re saying that the virus was already circulating in Europe in January, then it’s very probable that 40,000 Bergamaschi in the stands of San Siro, all together, exchanged the virus between them. As is possible that so many Bergamaschi that night got together in houses, bars to watch the match and did the same.

......

 

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16 minutes ago, zoonation said:

Yes.  I was initially unhappy with the federal government response as they were a bit late (in my view) to take this seriously.  I'm not a Trudeau fan - think he is a phony - but he got serious very quick, which was about two weeks ago.  Each province across the country declared a state of emergency very early on.  I live in Alberta and we have been under state of emergency and a shelter in place directive for about two weeks now, and that started when there was less than 50 cases in the province.

The messaging coming out of our province (and every province so far as I am aware) has been consistent and in lockstep with the feds have been saying.  We are taking this extremely seriously, have few cases relative to the rest of the world, and are not talking about "opening the country back up by Easter".  Science and Canada Health are leading the messaging.

So far, I believe that only Ontario has issued a formal directive re only essential businesses remaining open.  Quebec too maybe.  I think other provinces would have too, but the voluntary compliance is working.  I live in a city of 1.2 million, and nothing is open.  I am not sure about shielding the name of a positive tested co-worker.  Our entire downtown core is shut down though.  Everyone is working from home.

I'm in Ontario. Small town about 30k. I believe it was Monday when the order to close all but essential services came out. That list if pretty extensive tho so there are still lots of "essential" services.   I'm in I.T. and working from home so, fortunately, still getting paid and as safe as possible from this.  Grocery stores are open, as this thing has progressed they've made changes to limit quantities on many items, limit people in the stores,limit hours  etc. My go-to store has employees there to clean off the cart handles and also apply hand sanitizer to you if you wish.  Physical distancing in place with tape on the floor at checkouts.  It's pretty well managed as far as that goes. 

Dining rooms in all restaurants and coffee shops are closed. As of yesterday, any restaurant that has a liquor license can sell liquor to it's customers provided they buy food as well.  So your take-out can come with a beer.  That's an Ontario thing. Maybe it will help sales for these places.  

We've had a couple of positive cases in my town and they haven't' released any names and I have no idea what would be told to any co-workers of anyone who tests positive.  

As of Wednesday Canada has mandated 14 day quarantine for passengers returning to canada. Our PM speaks every morning at 11am EST for about 15-20 minutes. Q&A follow.  Government has  implemented policies and funds to try to help those in need. Today offering money to small businesses. Earlier this week money to anyone unemployed due to this.  

I personally feel our government is doing as good a job as can be expected but they are definitely not pleasing everyone. 

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